(Jason note: I’m going to do a somewhat lengthy intro about how I’ve viewed the build-up to the Draft and my analysis of a few individual prospects, followed by the selections I would make if I was each of the 32 GMs). 

What an extremely weird draft process this has been. It reminds me of the 2013 NBA Draft when there was no consensus best player at the time (Hi Giannis!) and the team with the first pick talked themselves into a high-upside project who wound up burning out faster than a TikTok trend. He’s now playing professionally in Taiwan. For Travon Walker, I hope he fares better, even if I think his rapid ascension to most-likely first overall pick is completely asinine and evidence that this process is too long. 

We (the people who do this professionally and people like me who wish we did) get so enamored with the measurables. Make no mistake, Walker’s are off the charts. His Combine performance was the stuff of legend. His in-game performance, however, wasn’t. He showed flashes of immense pass-rushing skill, but didn’t produce the counting statistics you’d like to see from a college pass rusher.  

To give you an idea of Walker’s rise, I did two mock drafts prior to this published one. One was February 15. The other was March 7. In the first one, I didn’t slot Walker in the first round. The second mock which I did in the immediate aftermath of the Combine, I slotted him in at 10 and thought at the time that I was being far too generous. Then his name started popping up more and more. And now, today (April 25) as I write this intro, he’s the odds-on favorite to go first overall, despite playing no games from February 15-today. 

At the start of this process, I wasn’t enamored with Aidan Hutchinson, having watched him do absolutely nothing against an SEC offensive line in the CFP. Hutchinson’s measurables are great, save for his very short arms, which give him a severe disadvantage at the snap, as it limits his ability to get first contact. As I’ve listened to and read actual experts over the past two months, I’ve come to appreciate a little more of what Hutchinson is and what he could be.

All along, I’ve thought that Jacksonville was in an impossible situation. From what I can tell, the team has done a terrible job of ginning up interest in a trade for the first overall pick, which would be the ideal scenario for them. And perhaps the Travon Walker stuff is actually Jacksonville trying to create smoke to entice a team in the 3-10 range to move up to draft him.  However, everybody else in the Top 10 appears to be pretty comfortable with where they are. Detroit especially stands to get the player they wanted all along (we assume) in Hutchinson without having to give up anything for him. 

On the offensive line, there is no Orlando Pace in this draft, but Jacksonville would still be very smart to draft an offensive tackle with the first overall pick, rather than swing for the fences with Travon Walker. Their offensive line lacks depth to begin with. Add to that that their best lineman is Cam Robinson on the one-year franchise tag (Robinson has since signed a 3 year extension which I’ll discuss below with Jacksonville’s pick)  and it just makes sense to me that you’d want to build that depth to protect the investment in Trevor Lawrence. Really, what’s the point of drafting a potential franchise-altering QB if you’re only going to surround him with middle-round talent? The player I have going first overall is the most versatile lineman in this draft and someone who I’ve consistently mocked to Jacksonville. Ultimately, I think given what we know about Trent Baalke (Jacksonville’s GM), they’ll swing for the fences on Thursday and select Walker. 

Part of what makes this draft so weird is that the quarterback class is the worst in recent memory and maybe ever. The general consensus is that Malik Willis is the best prospect, given his tools. I just can’t see how a GM can take him early in the first round unless they have an ironclad and notarized agreement with ownership that they’ll get to stick around long enough to have the gamble maybe pay off. Willis will absolutely not be ready to start in Week 1. I’m not entirely sure that he’ll be able to start in Week 18 either. He has a long way to go as a quarterback who can complete passes at all three levels before he can succeed in the NFL. His decision making at Liberty (including attending Liberty) severely lapsed at times even against middling competition. There’s just an immense amount of washout potential in him. Meanwhile, the general consensus is that Pittsburgh’s Kenny Pickett is the safer pick and I might have agreed with that two months ago, but everything I’ve read about him indicates a guy who will absolutely wilt under defensive pressure. And let’s not forget that his hands are very tiny. Pickett has, in my mind, an Andy Dalton ceiling in the NFL. I don’t see how that’s worth a first round pick.

For me, the safest QB in the draft is Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder, a four year starter who improved every year, has sneaky mobility, and is an accurate passer, albeit without the arm strength of Willis. Ridder isn’t the kind of high-upside QB that you’d take in the top 10, but I think in the late teens, an already good team is going to draft a QB who will be a stable signal caller for 10+ years. Think Derek Carr or Tony Romo in terms of numbers.  Meanwhile, I think the career ceiling for Willis could be 2021 Josh Allen and the floor could be 2018 Josh Allen. Is it worth committing yourself to Willis for 3-4 years or smarter to fill a positional need and wait for better QB classes in 2023 and 2024?

Okay, on to the picks. Where relevant, I’ll include who I think the team will actually select, because obviously I differ a bit from the likely reality.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars select Evan Neal (OT/Alabama)

As noted, I think this will be Travon Walker. I personally love Neal. He has every box checked for an offensive lineman. Size. Speed. Strength. Positional flexibility. This has been my selection for the Jags since they locked up the first overall pick. This morning’s news that they’ve signed Cam Robinson to a 3 year/$54 million extension throws a bit of a wrench into the selection. I thought about moving Hutchinson up here, which would lead to a ripple effect that would see Detroit probably take Travon Walker, Houston still take Ekwonu who is a better scheme fit and Neal fall to the Giants at 5. The reason why I’m sticking with Neal is because in my mind’s eye, he’s the best, most day-one ready prospect in this Draft. First overall is rich for a player who will likely play Guard, but it’s important to note that Robinson getting the franchise tag is not indicative of his being a franchise player. PFF (Pro Football Focus) ranked him in the bottom half of all tackles in the NFL last season. He’s also played 16 games in a season just once. I still don’t think pass rush is more of a need for Jacksonville than pass protection. They’ll also have the first pick in every other round, allowing them to survey the landscape and make the most informed decision. I go with the surest thing here, regardless of Robinson’s extension.

2. Detroit Lions select Aidan Hutchinson (EDGE/Michigan)

This is the ideal scenario for the Lions. They need a pass rusher and will draft one here probably regardless of what Jacksonville does. All indications are that the Michigan guy is their guy. If he goes first overall, I’d imagine Detroit takes Walker over Kayvon Thibodeaux..

3. Houston Texans select Ikem Ekwonu (OT/NC State)

Is this too high to draft a guy whose biggest strength is his run blocking? Maybe. Are the Houston Texans in dire need of players who can do anything well? Yes. Having a run blocking dynamo like Ekwonu I think takes some pressure off of Davis Mills. I’d look for Houston to use their early second round pick on Iowa State running back Breece Hall to really give Mills a chance to succeed. 

4. New York Jets select Derek Stingley Jr. (CB/LSU)

The cornerback pool has two absolute 1a guys in Stingley and Sauce Gardner. Sauce was the consistent performer who, when he played high quality WRs out of conference, didn’t lose a step. Stingley on the other hand hasn’t been great or healthy since 2019, but it’s very, very hard to overlook how dominant he was in 2019. If he’s recovered from his foot fracture, his upside is too great to let him slip. He has generational ability.  I think the Jets take one of Stingley or Sauce here and honestly neither pick would be wrong. 

5. New York Giants select Travon Walker (EDGE/Georgia)

No, I don’t think Walker slips to 5 on Thursday. If he does, given that the Giants pick again at 7, this feels like the right place to take a big home run swing, a thing I think teams with multiple firsts should always try to do (it’s what I have the Jets doing at 4). The Giants need help everywhere on defense. Knowing that the team drafting after them took a corner in round 1 last year allows them to leave Sauce available and just hope nobody trades up to 6 for him. 

6. Carolina Panthers select Charles Cross (OT/Mississippi State)

I think Carolina will draft Malik Willis here, which would be utterly insane. I go with the somewhat safer bet and take the LT who shined against the Alabama defense in 2021 in a pass heavy offense without a lot of talent around him.

7. New York Giants (from Chicago) select Sauce Gardner (CB/Cincinnati)

See, no one traded up for Sauce…

8. Atlanta Falcons select Trent McDuffie (CB/Washington)

Here’s my first “reach.” I think any of the next four guys are probably “better” than McDuffie, but the Falcons defense just absolutely stinks. And it especially stinks in the secondary. This is a team that’s absolutely going to be in contention for Bryce Young next year (the presumptive first overall pick in the 2023 Draft). So this is a franchise-building pick rather than some big swing at something they don’t need to swing it. If they draft a QB here, they’re insane. 

9. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver) select Kayvon Thibodeaux (EDGE/Oregon)

Speaking of teams that should be playing for the first overall pick next year…Seattle got this pick for Russell Wilson and will enter the 2022 season with Drew Lock as their quarterback, which is as close to waving a white flag as a team could get. Thibodeaux in this spot is a must-get for a team that has had trouble getting to the quarterback for years. Like Atlanta, this is absolutely not a place for them to draft a QB. I could also see Kyle Hamilton going here.

10. New York Jets (from Seattle) select Jameson Williams (WR/Alabama)

This pick came down to Kyle Hamilton and Jameson Williams. I went with Williams because despite his ACL tear in January, I think he’s the best receiver in this class and the only true game-changer in the group. The Jets have done a nice job of building up their receiving corp, but Williams brings something altogether different. Much like Jacksonville with Trevor Lawrence, the Jets need to give Zach Wilson every chance to succeed or, conversely, show that he can’t succeed so that they can move on from him quicker than they did from Sam Darnold. These two picks are risky for the Jets, but if only one hits, they’ll have an All-Pro. If both hit, that’s a franchise-changer.

11. Washington (sigh) Commanders select Kyle Hamilton (S/Notre Dame)

The Football Commanders get, for my money, the best pure football player in this draft. I’m deeply enamored with defensive guys who can play at multiple levels (see: Simmons, Isaiah). Hamilton is one of those guys. He’s huge for a safety, but can hold his own as an inside corner and can cover the middle of the field like a linebacker. For a fanbase that remains as deeply enamored with Sean Taylor as one could be, Hamilton would represent the best secondary player this franchise has seen since Taylor. 

12. Minnesota Vikings select Jermaine Johnson II (EDGE/Florida State)

If you’re noticing a bit of a trend in the modern NFL it’s that you cannot have enough bodies who can get to the opposing quarterback. For now, this is a league fixated on the pass. The only ways to counter that are with pressure and great corners. All three corners who I believe will be great are gone and drafted here, leaving Minnesota with the best pass rushing option. Johnson was great at the Senior Bowl and probably the lone bright spot on a horrific Florida State team in 2021. 

13. Houston Texans (from Cleveland) select Drake London (WR/USC)

After Jameson Williams, the receiving pool becomes a real grab bag. London is by far the biggest and most physical of the bunch and was producing historic numbers in 2021 before an injury ended his season. The trend in the modern NFL appears to be towards smaller, quicker wideouts, but there’s certainly still room for guys like London (Michael Thomas-like) who can control the short and intermediate passing game with their size. The Texans seem to really like Davis Mills. If they do like him, they’ll get him a really talented security blanket to throw to 14 times per game.

14. Baltimore Ravens select Jordan Davis (NT/Georgia)

If at this time on Thursday, the Ravens have their choice of Georgia’s two standout interior defensive linemen, they’ll be ecstatic. I give the edge (not to be confused with EDGE) to Jordan Davis (who would never be confused for an EDGE). Davis is the kind of player I used to make in Madden. 6’6”. 341 LBS. Runs a 40-yard dash in 4.78 seconds and has 34” arms. Now, it’s extremely unlikely that the Ravens will line Davis up at wideout to use that speed, but the size and arm length will certainly play as a run-stuffing interior force. Haloti Ngata was a cornerstone at the nose tackle position in Baltimore and I envision Davis as that type of player.

15. Philadelphia Eagles (from Miami) select Garrett Wilson (WR/Ohio State)

See special combined “analysis” below

16. New Orleans Saints (from Indianapolis via Philly) select Chris Olave (WR/Ohio State)

These teams engaged in one of the weirdest trades of draft picks I can ever remember, shuffling late teens picks around, seemingly to give New Orleans an edge (not EDGE) over the Chargers…I guess? Anyway, Philly probably needs to go back to the well at wide receiver and see if they can finally get that position right. New Orleans needs skill position players desperately. This isn’t the pick where a QB would come in to play, as the Chargers seem pretty set there for the next 15 years and you don’t make the trade they did with Philly without the assurance that your target is safe. In terms of analyzing these two receivers, they’re both kind of the same to me. Similar build. Olave is more of a deep threat with open field speed. Wilson is more of a possession based receiver. I think Wilson is the more steady choice and Philly needs steady at wideout.

17. Los Angeles Chargers select Devonte Wyatt (DT/Georgia)

There’s a lot of debate about which interior lineman from UGA is better between Wyatt and Davis. I think they’re both really good and Baltimore and LAC would probably be happy to swap them here. The Chargers run defense was awful in 2021 and they’ve made moves to upgrade, but depth is key.

18. Philadelphia Eagles (from New Orleans) select Nakobe Dean (LB/Georgia)

I love Nakobe Dean because every single time you watch him. he’s making plays. He’s so quick to react to running backs slipping out of the backfield and so quick in his reads of QBs. Maybe he’s not someone’s perfect ideal sized middle linebacker. Whatever. He’s a game-wrecker. I’d have to imagine that given their predilection for athletes who give it on every play, Dean will be a home run in Philly. 

19. New Orleans Saints (from Philadelphia) select Desmond Ridder (QB/Cincinnati)

Wanna get nuts? Let’s get nuts! Ridder is not going to get drafted 19th overall. But this is where I would take him for all the reasons mentioned in my intro. I just like Ridder better than Willis as an NFL prospect. And I know I’m contradicting my rule about multi-pick teams taking home run swings in leaving Willis on the board. If this is exactly how the Draft plays out on Thursday, I wouldn’t lose my mind over the Saints drafting Willis here and having him…learn (???) from Jameis Winston.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers select Trevor Penning (OT/Northern Iowa)

Penning is a risky pick, given his FCS background. His Senior Bowl was inconsistent with the most common refrain being that he looked “nasty.” That’s well and good in the FCS and at the Senior Bowl, but there’s no guarantee that nastiness translates to the NFL where talent matters more. However, I look at the Pittsburgh team and think it’s impossible to draft a QB here given how bad their offensive line depth is. I mean, they literally built an offense around Ben Roethlisberger throwing the ball in under 2 seconds because he was so immobile and the line was so leaky. You have to take a chance here on a talented guy with great measurables and hope he’s better than whatever they had last season.

21. New England Patriots select George Karalaftis (EDGE/Purdue)

The production was not entirely there for Karlaftis during his three seasons as a starter, but there’s a lot of upside here. Karlaftis will be 21 years old during the entirety of the 2022 season. He’s young. He’s also extremely talented, even if that talent didn’t always flash in college. His 2021 season didn’t see him rack up the sack numbers, but he hurried the QB an average of 3 times per game. In terms of need for the Patriots, pass rushing is fairly high on the list, right below “a head coach who smiles more.” 

22. Green Bay Packers (from Las Vegas) select Tyler Linderbaum (C/Iowa)

To give you an idea of how good Linderbaum is viewed, in 2020 he was the highest graded center in the country, ahead of Creed Humphrey, who would get drafted in the 2nd round of the 2021 Draft by the Chiefs, start all 17 games, and be PFF’s top rated center in the NFL. I think there’s an argument to be made that if you can take a generational talent at their position, regardless of that position (outside of punter, probably) you do it. You especially do it when you lack consistency on the offensive line and that prospect is a center. And you super especially do it when you’re a cold weather team and that player is an interior offensive lineman from Iowa. Green Bay has another pick to address their glaring holes at wide receiver.

23. Arizona Cardinals select Zion Johnson (G/Boston College)

Can you tell that this is a lineman-heavy first round? Johnson is probably the most underrated prospect so far, due in large part to him playing at BC. Throughout the pre-draft process, Johnson has tested well and moved up draft boards, solidifying himself as the best pure guard in 2021. Arizona made the playoffs last year, though you’d be forgiven if you forgot that. The roster is quite a mess for a playoff team and the franchise quarterback may or may not have indicated that he wants to be traded. Perhaps he’d be happier with a more consistent O-line. 

24. Dallas Cowboys select Devin Lloyd (LB/Utah)

Do not be surprised if Dallas uses this pick on one of the electric wideouts who are still available here (they’d also love Jameson Williams I’m sure but I doubt that happens). Dallas spent the offseason seemingly increasing their list of needs from defensive tackle and offensive line depth to completely new offensive linemen, a few wide receivers, pass rushing, and competent middle linebacker. Devin Lloyd fills that last role well. Lloyd is great in coverage and against the run. Filling this hole for Dallas would also see Micah Parsons be able to transition to an even-more havoc-wreaking pass rushing monster. 

25. Buffalo Bills select Skyy Moore (WR/Western Michigan)

If I told you there was a MAC wide receiver named Skyy Moore, the person you’d envision would be exactly Skyy Moore. “Stupid quickness” describes Moore in the open field. Despite all the receivers above him in this draft, he was the highest rated player at the position in FBS. 94 catches for nearly 1300 yards. As far as fit with Buffalo, they lost Cole Beasley this offseason and could replace him with an extremely more dynamic version of him.

26. Tennessee Titans select David Ojabo (EDGE/Michigan)

What do you do when your immediate needs are relatively superficial and you can fill those later in the Draft? You go and draft the previously consensus first round pick who is slipping because of a freak injury. Ojabo rushed the QB opposite Aidan Hutchinson. There’s some question as to whether his statistical spike was a result of Hutch getting all of the attention. That’s probably fair. But also, Ojabo is super athletic and raw and still learning the position. I’ve mentioned home run swings before. This is it. 

27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers select Kenyon Green (G/Texas A&M)

Ali Marpet abruptly retired and played the guard position. Kenyon Green is a guard who can also play either tackle, as he showed in college. Tampa’s needs are a bit superficial too (meaning “they could use some <blank> depth” rather than “they have an immediate and pressing need for a <blank>.) Interior line is a higher priority need at the moment given the abrupt un-retiring of Tom Brady.

28. Green Bay Packers select Treylon Burks (WR/Arkansas)

Okay, so, it happened. Green Bay ended the streak and drafted a WR in the first round for the first time in the Aaron Rodgers era. If the Packers are to somehow keep that streak alive, you would have to call it self-parody, because if Burks is on the board, you draft him. Skyy Moore being drafted ahead of Burks here is more about what the Bills needed than an indictment of Burks, who is just a different guy. Treylon is a classic, big, downfield receiving threat. And right now, Green Bay doesn’t have any receiving that could be deemed a threat. 

29. Kansas City Chiefs (from San Francisco via Miami) select Andrew Booth Jr. (CB/Clemson)

30. Kansas City Chiefs select Jahan Dotson (WR/Penn State)

Rarer than the supermoon, it’s the back-to-back first round picks from one team. Kansas City’s two biggest offseason losses were a big, physical corner in Charvarius Ward and an undersized speedster receiver with big play ability in Tyreek Hill. Check and check. And no, I don’t think Jahan Dotson just automatically becomes Tyreek Hill. His open field speed is once-in-a-generation. But a slightly lesser Tyreek Hill is still a really good NFL receiver.

31. Cincinnati Bengals select Jalen Pitre (Secondary/Baylor)

When I got to Cincinnati I realized this particular mock draft would be the nightmare scenario for them, because I’m sure they’d love some more offensive line depth or more pass rushing prowess. Instead we move to the next biggest need which is secondary. I lean Pitre over Kaiir Elam, Roger McCreary, and Kyler Gordon because of his positional flexibility and pedigree of success (2021 Big XII Player of the Year). He is probably a safety in the NFL, but I also think Cincy could get away with him as a nickelback when needed..

32. Detroit Lions (from LA Rams) select Malik Willis (QB/Liberty)

Home run? Time will tell. All I know is that Jared Goff is nobody’s answer at QB. Let him play out the final year of significant dead cap damage (from $41 million in 2022 to $10 million in ‘23) while focusing all of the development on Willis. Hell, give him all of the starter reps in practice and then make Goff go out there on Sundays. Go 2-15, waive Goff at the first chance and continue to build around Penei Sewell, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Aidan Hutchinson and Malik Willis (if this scenario plays out) with a high 2023 pick. And don’t completely give up on Jeff Okudah, 2020’s top 3 pick. Injury has cost him the early part of his career, but you’d have to imagine the talent isn’t gone. The Lions have some really good young centerpieces and with Aaron Rodgers potentially quitting mid-season during a Pat McAfee podcast, the NFC North could be up for grabs sooner rather than later. The Willis gamble is worth taking at this late stage of the first round, because as I see it, Detroit is the next team up in this division given their great drafting last year.

***

So what else? Well, at QB we’re left with Kenny Pickett, Matt Corral, and Sam Howell. Highest ceiling is probably Howell even though he’s a mechanical nightmare. Then I’d take Pickett to be my Andy Dalton. And after that, Corral, who I think probably belongs closer to the next rung of QBs with Carson Strong and Bailey Zappe. 

At running back, if this was 2005, Breece Hall would be a top 10 pick. He can catch the ball out of the backfield and run between the tackles with great skill. That kind of versatility is vital in today’s NFL. 

The  wideout to note is John Metchie III who was a likely first rounder until he tore his ACL in the SEC Championship game. He won’t be recovered in time to make a Week 1 impact, but the talent is worth an early second round investment certainly, especially for a team like Seattle who have two second round picks and a need to rebuild. 

If you’re anything like me, I am deeply sorry. But also, you probably enjoy watching anomalies. Players like Jordan Davis who are literally twice the size of another person who run at Olympic sprinter speeds. It’s particularly jaw-dropping in professional wrestling to see the big 7’0” “GIANT!” execute a top rope moonsault. Then there’s Minnesota’s Daniel Faalele, who is 6’8” and just a hint under 385 lbs. I don’t know if Daniel can do moonsaults. And even though he didn’t run the 40 at the Combine, I’m confident that Daniel cannot run a sub-5.00 40-yard dash. But I do know that Daniel is really big. Can a player that big in height and weight succeed (he’s 40 lbs heavier than Jonathan Ogden) as a left tackle? I’ll be waiting to find out. 

On the defensive side of the ball, I fully expect there to be a League-wide infatuation with Georgia’s defensive players and could see two more (Safety Lewis Cine and LB Quay Walker) sneaking into the end of the first round. Walker especially has really big potential to be a long-term fixture in the NFL. 

Enjoy the Draft. I would like to do this professionally.