2024 NFL Mock Draft

Instead of a long intro, I’ll simply apologize to anyone who still reads these that I continue to post on this horrifyingly unattractive medium. I’ve toyed with the idea of upgrading how and where I post these but truthfully, there’s just so little traffic and I produce so little content. We could get into a therapy session about whether the lack of content is a result of the little traffic or vice versa, but you’re not my therapist. No one is! I live in Los Angeles and have Blue Cross Blue Shield.

The only differences here versus any other year is that the picks are more of a common-sense selection process than one based entirely on my own rankings. And I included trades! I used both PFF’s tool to create trades that had at least a 75% chance of approval. Here we go:

  1. Chicago Bears select Caleb Williams(QB/USC)

This is kind of a no-brainer and it would be weird and performative to slot any other player to Chicago here. Even if you don’t think Williams is the second coming of Patrick Mahomes, his floor is very high. I’d go so far as to say it’s a dialed back Andrew Luck but with more open field speed and pocket mobility. Williams makes a lot of off-platform throws and those make the highlight reels, but he’s a good and in fact extremely underrated pocket QB who might actually be excellent surrounded by better coaching and skill players than he had at USC. Anyone else here is overthinking things.

  1. Washington Commanders select Jayden Daniels (QB/LSU)

Okay, we’ve moved past the no-brainer portion of the draft. I would hate to have this pick. Truly. There are so many good offensive tackles and wideouts and cornerbacks and interior defensive linemen, but you have to draft a QB here if you’re the Artist Formerly Known as the Football Team. For me, it’s either Daniels or Drake Maye and I lean Daniels, ever so slightly, because of his upside. But man, does his extremely skinny frame and reckless open-field running worry the crap out of me. 

  1. New England Patriots select Marvin Harrison (WR/Ohio State)

This might seem like a contrarian curveball but think about it: New England can take a risky QB prospect in this spot or a universally-agreed upon generational WR talent. When in the course of draft history has the risky QB pick worked out better than the generational skill position pick? It’s different for Washignton at pick 2 because they have their choice of guys. New England doesn’t have that. They have Jacoby Brissett, a more than competent NFL starting QB and a really barren roster. I’d rather build pieces and look to fill QB next year with someone like Quinn Ewers or whoever pulls a Jayden Daniels or Joe Burrow and skyrockets up draft boards. *googles “LSU 2025 starting quarterback:*

  1. TRADE (Minnesota sends both 2024 firsts, picks 166 and 167 to Cardinals for pick 4) 

Minnesota selects Drake Maye (QB/UNC)

I have resisted the urge to do trades for as long as I’ve been doing this, which is I think 16 years. But this year’s draft changes things. There’s just too much need everywhere and too many teams that are whole rosters away from competing. Perhaps no team best exemplifies that latter bit than the Arizona Cardinals, who miss out on Marvin Harrison here, but choose to slide back to 11, acquire an additional first this year (they already had an additional first), and two later round picks. In moving up, Minnesota drafts the best available QB. Maye has a big arm and great size and good mobility. He is a “system” guy and the last two UNC guys (Mitch Trubisky and Sam Howell) didn’t exactly set the NFL ablaze. But Minnesota is a much better place for a rookie QB to learn on the job, with Justin Jefferson ready to catch anything thrown to him. Minnesota pays a hefty price in giving up both of their first rounders, but keep a chunk of their depth picks. 

  1. TRADE (Las Vegas sends a 2024 round 1, a 2025 round 1, 77, 112, 148 to Chargers for pick 5 and pick 69) 

Las Vegas selects JJ McCarthy (QB/Michigan)

We’ve got trade fever. Panicking that they’re going to enter 2024 with Aiden O’Connell as their QB1, Vegas makes an intra division trade with another team in need of draft assets. Now, look, I think JJ McCarthy at 1:5 is an utterly comical risk. I just don’t see where his upside is. Is there some kind of mysterious arm strength or accuracy that he’s been hiding from us? Is he about to grow a few inches? In the modern NFL Draft landscape, I don’t know that we’ve seen a QB with so little in the way of impressive statistics, at any point in his college career, move himself from “not even being talked about” to “top 5 pick.” So I’ll just say, I think the speed of the NFL will destroy JJ McCarthy and this pick will be an immense bust. But like I said, we’re doing groupthink this year.

  1. TRADE (Atlanta sends picks 8, 74, 109, 143, and 187 to Giants for 6) 

Atlanta selects Joe Alt (LT/Notre Dame)

Every ounce of chatter, every mock draft, every simulation, has Tennessee drafting Joe Alt at 1:7. So Atlanta pulls a fast one and gets the true franchise, Day 1 LT in this draft. And there are a lot of good tackles in this draft, some with extremely high upside. But Alt is the only one that has All-Pro potential. Atlanta just spent a lot of money on Kirk Cousins. They have talent at all the skill positions. It’s time for them to get serious and build a team in the trenches. They give up a bevy of picks to move up two spots but no one will question that when Alt is a multi-time Pro Bowler.

  1. Tennessee Titans select Rome Odunze (WR/Washington)

Tennessee’s consolation prize for missing out on Alt is a player who I think is the best WR in this class. Malik Nabers is faster. Marvin Harrison has a more dynamic grasp of route running. But Odunze is the most complete all-around receiver. He’s stronger than Nabers or Harrison. I like his hands better than either of the other two. And his contested-catch ability is second to none. I’m in love with him as a pro prospect. Logic and reason says that Harrison is the first receiver off the board, but for me, Odunze is a steal here for a team that is perpetually looking for a star pass catcher in his prime. 

  1. New York Giants (from Atlanta) select Malik Nabers (WR/LSU)

The Giants move back two spots, acquire 4 additional picks this year, and still get one of the big 3 WRs. Nabers is the speedster. A guy who can line up in the slot and win or a guy who can line up outside and burn. He is electrifying which is something the Giants have lacked at WR since another guy from Louisiana State University. 

  1. Chicago Bears select Byron Murphy II (DT/Texas)

The hope for most people in Chicago seems to be that one of the WRs falls to them. That doesn’t happen here, but WR is absurdly deep in this draft. Like, truly 10 impact guys deep. Chicago will have an opportunity to take whatever flavor WR they like in Round 3 or 4. Instead they get the best interior lineman in the draft, a guy who possesses insane athleticism who should benefit greatly early on from one-on-one matchups in the trenches, something he didn’t see often at Texas. 

  1. New York Jets select Taliese Fuaga (OT/Oregon State)

If the Jets don’t draft an offensive lineman in this incredibly fortuitous situation, they should also move to Las Vegas, but quit football and become a part-time bartender at a 3-star casino. Fuaga played exclusively RT at Oregon State and there was no one better in college football.

  1. Arizona Cardinals (from Minnesota) select Quinyon Mitchell (CB/Toledo)

Arizona’s roster is what NFL insiders call “gross” and “depleted” and “directionless” and “bad.” Their roster is so bad that we’ve all just assumed that Kyler Murray is a franchise QB and they shouldn’t even think about it, because my god if they spent a moment trying to replace QB, I can’t fathom how much further this roster would fall into disrepair. Anyway, that’s why I love the fake trade they made with Minnesota so much. Three first-round picks should net 3 starters on opening day. They start with Quinyon Mitchell, who set the postseason workout circuit ablaze. He’s a complete CB. A one-on-one guy who can tackle like a safety. In a division with DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk, this is a solid need for Arizona to address. 

  1. Denver Broncos select Dallas Turner (EDGE/Alabama)

Denver wanted to move up to draft Maye or McCarthy but they lacked the assets to do so, perhaps due in some part to the Russell Wilson debacle. So instead they stand here at 12, looking like Vincent Vega waiting on Mia Wallace…oh my god I’m so sorry, Bill Simmons just stole my ASUS laptop computer. Denver needs impact players all over the field, and here they get the top pass rusher in the draft. 

  1. Los Angeles Chargers (from Las Vegas) select JC Latham (RT/Alabama)

Moving back from 5 was key for the Chargers. Sure, they could have drafted Joe Alt and then had him draw straws with Rashawn Slater to determine who would anchor which tackle position. OR they could draft a true RT and acquire a third this season and a future first from a team that should be pretty bad in 2025. I like this scenario better. Jim Harbaugh has his principles and one of them is that offensive lines matter. Offensive line has long been a nightmare for LA’s lesser son. Problem…well, not solved, but problem…less problematic?

  1. New Orleans Saints select Troy Fautanu (LT/Washington)

If I paid Derek Carr a lot of money to play QB for my team, I sure as heck would make sure that I was protecting his blind side and doing so with someone a lot better than Trevor Penning.

  1. Indianapolis Colts select Brock Bowers (TE/Georgia)

This has to be a dream scenario for the Colts. They’re thin at pass-catcher and in Bowers they get a game-wrecking, who-knows-what-he-is pass catching dynamo. Bowers should present a lot of matchup problems for opposing defenses and should make Michael Pittman’s life (and by proxy Anthony Richardson’s) much easier. And Indianapolis didn’t have to move an inch to get their guy.

  1. Seattle Seahawks select Laiatu Latu (EDGE/UCLA)

This will be the year that the Seahawks address their anemic pass rush. No, really. I can feel it. 

  1. Jacksonville Jaguars select Cooper DeJean (CB/Iowa)

DeJean will either get drafted in the top 10 or will fall to the second round. Reviews are all over the place. Some people don’t think he can play CB. Some think he can but that he would be an excellent safety. Some see a special teams ace. And others think he’s the best corner in the draft. So, uh??? I think he lies between the second and fourth options there. He’s just so athletic and look, if we’re being honest, he’s a white secondary player and I think that throws a lot of people off. The Jaguars need playmakers in their secondary. If DeJean is a CB1 that’s awesome. If he’s a Pro Bowl safety? That’s cool too. If he’s even a good starter that’s also an upgrade. 

  1. Cincinnati Bengals select Olumuyiwa Fashanu (OT/Penn State)

This will be the year that the Bengals address their anemic pass blocking. No, really. I can feel it.

  1. Los Angeles Rams select Amarius Mims (OT/Georgia)

This is the Rams first first-round pick since they took Jared Goff in 2016. 8 years. It’s a credit to their scouting department that they haven’t had a long-term fall off. They could go in a number of directions here, but I’d like to see them take Mims, a high ceiling, low floor right tackle. Mims had an injury-derailed final season at Georgia, which contributed to his career total of 8 starts. Still, there’s a lot to like here and it’s a worthwhile gamble for a team that’s been doing well without any opportunities to gamble.

  1. Pittsburgh Steelers Terrion Arnold (CB/Alabama)

Well, they don’t need a QB…I have no idea what Pittsburgh is doing on the offensive side of the ball, so let’s give them the best available player at a position of need on defense and move on.

  1. TRADE (Tampa Bay sends 26, 89, and 125 to Miami for 21 and 198) 

Tampa Bay selects Jared Verse (EDGE/Florida State)

Sensing that they could lose out on a really good pass rusher, Tampa swaps firsts with Miami and sends a third and fourth their way to try to find an answer at EDGE. I think the jury has deliberated sufficiently on Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and while he’s not a full-on bust, he’s not a game changer. Tampa is aging rapidly on defense. Verse is on paper a big upgrade over JTS.

  1. Philadelphia Eagles select Adonai Mitchell (WR/Texas)

Two years ago, the Eagles could have let the internet vote for their first round draft pick and it wouldn’t have mattered. That’s how much depth they had. Now? The margin to miss on this pick is getting pretty thin. They need to get younger on the offensive line. They need secondary depth. They could afford to replace Jordan Davis who appears to be a “some downs” lineman. Or they could put the car in 5th and drive 140 across the Walt Whitman Bridge. That’s what Adonai Mitchell is here. If he hits, you have the best WR corp in the NFL, a trio of players who can do everything you need at that position group. And if that doesn’t work, they can always send Nick Sirianni over to the other side of the Whitman to pump gas at a Sunoco. 

  1. Arizona Cardinals (from Minnesota) select Jer’Zhan Newton (DT/Illinois)

Just Arizona accumulating more Day 1 starters. Newton is such a truly well-rounded interior lineman. He’s really good against the run and strong and quick enough to be an effective pass rusher. He’s a real steal this late in the first.

  1. Dallas Cowboys select Nate Wiggins (CB/Clemson)

You might look at the Dallas Cowboys and say “hey Daron Bland had all those interceptions returned for touchdown last year. The last thing they need is another cornerback. That guy is great!” and I would implore you to make a wager with me about Bland’s o/u INT number for 2024. This position group is not particularly good, counting stats aside and the absence of Dan Quinn could leave a big hole. Wiggins can play outside or in the slot and would be a pretty immediate upgrade over basically anyone on this roster outside of maybe Trevon Diggs. And even he’s pretty overrated.

  1. Green Bay Packers select Graham Barton (OL/Duke)

Barton is probably a guard at the NFL level and an elite one at that. I think teams are finally catching on that it’s actually worthwhile to take players who are elite at their positions and that it doesn’t matter if they’re an interior lineman or not. So that’s nice, because I’ve long been a believer that if you have a need and a player grades as a 7-10 year starter, you draft that player.

  1. Miami (from Tampa Bay) select Tyler Guyton (OT/Oklahoma)

Miami’s poor offensive line play has become a bit of a running gag. Guyton is in no way a sure-fire Day 1 starter. He is very inexperienced and had moments at the Senior Bowl that made me question whether he was a first round talent or even a football player at all. But they don’t teach 6’8” former D-1 H-back pretty much anywhere. Guyton was a RT for a left-handed QB in college and if you don’t see the parallel here…His game needs refinement but he’s uber-athletic and worth taking a chance on, especially when you’ve been as porous as the Dolphins have been. His upside is enormous and too good to pass up on here.

  1. Arizona Cardinals select Brian Thomas Jr. (WR/LSU)

You know, Marvin Harrison is really good. But you know what else is good? Drafting the best CB in the draft, a Day 1 interior line force, and getting the best of the second tier of WRs. Thomas is 6’3” and runs a 4.3. His game needs refinement, but for your third first round pick, you’d be hard-pressed to find a more worthwhile gamble than on this make-up succeeding in the NFL.

  1. Buffalo Bills select Xavier Legette (WR/South Carolina)

Here’s where I say “screw it, I’m taking my guy.” Buffalo traded Stefon Diggs which seems like probably addition by subtraction at this point in his career. Legette is such an exciting prospect. There’s some DK Metcalf in his build. In terms of contested-catchers, he’s close to Rome Odunze. He’s so physical, but also ran a sub 4.4 at the Combine. He’s much lower on most other boards, but we’ve reached the portion of the WR pool where you determine your WR need and you fill it accordingly. And Buffalo could use a guy like Legette more than a speedster like Xavier Worthy or a hands guy like Ladd McConkey.

  1. Detroit Lions select Darius Robinson (EDGE/Missouri)

In an effort to build the most intimidating, high-motor pass rush that the NFL has ever seen, we have Darius Robinson going to the Detroit Lions to join forces with Aidan Hutchison. Robinson isn’t in the mold of the modern NFL EDGE player. He’s more strength than speed certainly. But his strength absolutely plays. He moved around the line a bit in college but settled in nicely as a pass rusher last year, earning first team all-SEC honors.He’s in the right place for some excellent coaching. I love this fit.

  1. Baltimore Ravens select Kool-Aid McKinstry (CB/Alabama)

McKinstry is about as steady as they come at CB. He’s not going to draw a ton of DPIs. He’s not going to get badly burned by receivers. He’s kind of the perfect Baltimore Ravens guy. 

  1. San Francisco 49ers select Jackson Powers-Johnson (OL/Oregon)

JPJ is, shall we say, different. If you like your centers pulling, this guy makes Jason Kelce look like a sloth. Everything JPJ does is with the amplifier turned up to 12. Truly, if high motor guys are your thing, go watch some Oregon tape. He feels like a perfect fit on outside zone runs in the Shannahn offense. I could see him going as high as Miami at 21. He could also go as low as late in the 2nd round because really, what do I know? The one thing I do know if that I love watching Jackson Power-Johnson.

  1. TRADE (New Orleans sends 45 and a 2025 first to Kansas City for 32) 

New Orleans selects Michael Penix Jr. (QB/Washington)

Kansas City gets to probably still have their choice of WRs at 45 and they get an extra first next year. New Orleans gets to jump the gun on all the teams who missed out on QBs (Hi Denver!) Hi Giants!) trying to trade into the top of the 2nd round for Penix, Spencer Rattler, and Bo Nix. I could honestly go with any of the 3 QBs here and truthfully I think that Rattler is the best fit for New Orleans, especially if he’s going to sit for a year. You don’t need Michael Penix to sit for any amount of time behind Derek Carr. He’s got plenty of experience. But he is, to me, a hair better than Rattler or Nix, both of whom I really like as Round 2 guys and both of which I prefer to JJ McCarthy. 

And that’s it. No second round. No other guys I like (there are so many). Just a cool and breezy few thousand words. My annual proof-of-life. Thanks for checking it out.

2023 NFL Mock Draft

It’s the most wonderful time of the year. School is winding down. The days are getting longer. I can ride my bike without dressing like a Himalayan spelunker. And I won’t have to read about prospects taking “Top 30” visits, a new item in the NFL Draft parlance that I hope doesn’t reappear in 2024 (not least of which because there are 32 teams in the NFL). 

I’ve been prepping in earnest for this post, truly the only consistent piece of Mid-Atlantic Bias content, since late January. I watched the Senior Bowl practices. I watched the entirety of the NFL Draft combine. I’ve read. I’ve listened. I’ve watched YouTube videos. And in the process, I’ve formed strong to medium-strong opinions about approximately 75 prospects who I’ll never meet, will have no impact on my life, nor will I have been paid to study. We’ve all got hobbies. 

If you’ve read this post before, you know the drill. If not, a simple refresher: I make each pick as though I’ve been named GM for a day for each NFL team picking in the first and second round. So it’s a mix of what I perceive to be each teams’ need, value for the selection, and who I think is the best player at each position. I lean heavily towards need over “best available” in most cases, which is why a few guys who I’d actually rate in the overall top 31 slip to round 2. Don’t worry, round 2 is just a list. Of note, Miami had their first round pick taken away as a result of their Tom Brady tampering.

1. Carolina Panthers (via Chicago) select CJ Stroud (QB/Ohio State)

Stroud is the surest thing at QB in this draft. This is not to blame Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen, but I think they’ve really warped peoples’ brains when it comes to the QB position. The knock I have seen on Stroud for months now is that he didn’t use his legs enough at Ohio State. Keep in mind, he was a 72% and 66% passer in the two years he started, playing with essentially an NFL all-pro team at wide receiver. It’s foolish to me that people are knocking Stroud for what he hasn’t shown, as though he’s not adaptable and as though he needed to run at Ohio State. His red flag, if you can call it that, is fixable, if needed. But not every QB needs to be Woody Dantzler. In the moments when Stroud did run, he looked plenty athletic.  Carolina needs a steady hand on Day 1 because they’re a division contender in an extremely weak NFC South. Stroud is the most accurate QB in this Draft at all three levels. He should step in seamlessly on Day 1 and be Carolina’s starter for at least 5 years (the length of a rookie contract). He’s not going to be Patrick Mahomes, but if you go around waiting for Patrick Mahomes, you end up with a lot of years of PJ Walker. 

2. Houston Texans select Bryce Young (QB/Alabama)

Young (and Stroud before him) should be considered the steady hands in this draft at the QB position (I’d also include Hendon Hooker albeit with a much lower ceiling than Stroud and Young). Houston is starved for steady leadership at QB. They thought they had it with Deshaun Watson until they absolutely didn’t. And I guess they had it in Matt Schaub, but he was more of the medium floor-type of QB. Young can be a really good QB at the pro level. I actually think he could be elite, but a lot of things would have to go right to get there.. Young wasn’t as statistically accurate as Stroud and isn’t as objectively accurate, but he also made more throws under pressure and to much lower quality  receivers in 2022. He moves really well in the pocket. His arm is strong enough. And he’s quick. The glaring red flag for Young is his height. And it’s bright, blood red.  He’s 5’10”. The list of 5’10” QBs to be Pro Bowl caliber QBs in the NFL is extremely short (PUNS). I love Young’s makeup. I love his toughness. The touch on his passes is beautiful. And he can move in the pocket better than anyone in this class. He’s also an easily marketable player. But I do have some reservations about taking him second. If he goes second, he’ll be in an offense that will scheme him well (the Kyle Shannahan system). That will be essential for him to reach his potential, because you can’t fix short. 

3. Arizona Cardinals stand outside of the NFL Draft approaching every single person like a ticket scalper, screaming “Number 3 overall pick! I got it! You want it!”

What an absolutely atrocious position to be in. Every single team knows Arizona is desperate to trade back here. Sure, they could draft Will Anderson Jr. and have a potential Day 1 Defensive Rookie of the Year and high-end 10 year NFL starter at EDGE. But, my god, this roster is empty and given the rumors of them trading DeAndre Hopkins, could become more barren. The worst thing that could have happened to Arizona was Chicago trading with Carolina so early because it eliminated one team from the possibility of moving up. Left are Indianapolis, who picks next and can’t be that eager to trade future capital to move up one spot, Las Vegas (7), but then they’re kind of undermining the Garoppolo signing if they draft a QB at 3 (gestures to Trey Lance), and Tennessee (11), but does Arizona want to move back that far? Same goes for Washington, Detroit’s second first rounder, and Tampa Bay.  I’ve never proposed a trade in a mock draft, but this is the closest I’ve come. If I was Indianpolis, I’d find out the price to move up one spot. I would not give up a future first. I’d also be hesitant to give up pick 35, knowing I wouldn’t have a pick between 3 and the mid-70s. I would trade my third rounder this year, a fifth, and a second next year. But, we don’t do trades, so…

Arizona selects Will Anderson Jr. (EDGE/Alabama)

There’s not a lot to say about Anderson. No nits to pick. He’s everything you want in a modern edge rusher. He’s a 3-down guy. He’s twitchy. He’s great in pursuit. He can defend the run. Day 1 starter. Maybe even Day 1 Pro Bowler. 

4. Indianapolis Colts select Anthony Richardson (QB/Florida)

I’ve been in love with this fit since the Combine when Anthony Richardson measured off-the-charts, but also looked mechanically fine throwing the football. No other QB has anywhere near this ceiling. And Shane Steichen is the perfect coach for Richardson’s skill set because of what he did in Philadelphia with Jalen Hurts who is nowhere near the absolute physical god that Richardson is. Don’t get me wrong, Richardson is nigiri raw. Picking him 4th goes against everything I think I’ve ever written about QBs. He was truly awful at times in college. But Indianapolis would be utterly insane to pass him up. The offense he ran at Florida was uncreative and the Gators really lacked for talented skill position player. Still, Richardson showed flashes and the flashes he showed at Florida cannot be taught. His open-field running ability can’t be taught. He’s Cam Newton’s running and Jeff George’s legendary arm merged into one being, which is, I think, Daunte Culpepper in his prime.  I cannot see a scenario where he starts Week 1 in 2023. Things would have either gone extremely well in training camp or horrifically bad. This isn’t a team that should be trying to win anything in 2023. There’s a lot of roster to build here. Best to let Gardner Minshew game-manage the bulk of the season and maybe hand over the reins to Richardson in Week 14 if he looks ready. But come 2024, I think Indy will be able to check off the most important box in roster construction, QB1. 

5. Seattle Seahawks (via Denver) select Tyree Wilson (EDGE/Texas Tech)

If you follow this stuff even half as closely as I do, you’ll notice the elephant in the room. It’s not the Seahawks taking the really unpolished but wildly talented Wilson at 5. It’s the Seahawks NOT taking Jalen Carter, the consensus best or second-best prospect, on the field, in this draft (with Anderson). I’ll get into those details when Carter gets drafted in a moment. For me, Wilson is a great pick for the Seahawks because he fills an absolute pressing need and because they have two first round draft picks. I always say, if you’ve got two firsts, take a big swing, especially if you were a playoff team the year prior. The need for an edge rusher isn’t apparent statistically, as Seattle took down the opposing QB 45 times in 2022, good for the top ⅓ in the NFL. The issue is more that Seattle struggled to get consistent pressure on the opposing QB. A lot of that has to do with the talent level on their line and on their edge. Uchenna Nwosu and Darrell Taylor led the team with 9 ½ sacks, but neither player really profiles as a star at the position. Both would be really nice depth players in fact. Wilson reminds me a good deal of last year’s first overall pick, Travon Walker. Technique-wise, he’s not going to wow anybody. His game is anything but refined. But he’s an electric player in pursuit. And he’s also an able tackler in the run game. He’s not strictly a third down pass rush specialist. His upside is enormous, his college production was great, and his measurables are ideal. And, as an added bonus, he didn’t leave a teammate for dead at the scene of an auto accident. 

6. Detroit Lions (via Los Angeles Rams) select Devon Witherspoon (CB/Illinois)

If Will Anderson isn’t on the board for Arizona at 3, I think Witherspoon should be the pick (in fact he was my 3rd overall pick prior to the Bears trading out of number 1). I think Detroit telegraphed what they’re going to do with this pick a little bit when they recently traded former top 5 pick Jeff Okudah to Atlanta for pennies on the dollar. Detroit needs a CB1. They’ve signed Emmanuel Mosley and Cam Sutton in free agency, both of whom are really good players, but not guys who you feel comfortable putting on Justin Jefferson without a lot of help. Witherspoon allowed a ridiculous 35% completion percentage on targets to his coverage in 2022. And as good as he is in the pass game, he brings a safety’s mentality to open-field tackling. Witherspoon does not shy away from contact like a lot of corners. If you’re running towards him, he is going to try to hurt you. And if you’re passing toward him, good luck.

7. Las Vegas Raiders select Jalen Carter (DI/Georgia)

If I can be glib for a moment, is there a better NFL team to draft an incredibly talented player with no regard for human life, especially while driving? Look, I usually shy away from the “character issue” things. I don’t care about a football player smoking weed. I can look past public intoxication in most instances. Petty shit is petty shit. And in most cases, marijuana possession and public intoxication arrests are racially influenced.  But what Jalen Carter did isn’t petty. It’s unique in a particularly heinous way. He pled no contest to reckless driving and street racing charges in an incident where he left the scene of an accident where his teammate died. I have an extremely hard time raving about a D-lineman’s versatility and pass pursuit when there’s a character flaw that big. Add to that the anonymous scout things about immaturity in general, which I usually don’t care about because it’s usually racially influenced, and I’m more than willing to let a potential all-pro talent slip. And really, if I’m any team other than Las Vegas, I might not even think all that talent is worth it. 

8. Atlanta Falcons select Nolan Smith (EDGE/Georgia)

Some would see this as a reach (if anybody actually “saw” this labor of love), but I think Smith is perfect in this scenario. The Falcons played 17 games last year. They sacked the opposing QB 21 times. Only the Chicago Bears (picking next) had fewer and that’s part of what makes this pick essential for Atlanta. First, 21 sacks in 17 games is statistically abysmal. The Bengals were the fourth worst team in terms of sacking the QB and they did it 30 times. Second, they should absolutely keep Smith from Chicago. Smith is very much a prospect, but he has such huge upside. This is a 238 pound EDGE who ran a sub 4.4 40-yard dash. And it’s not like he’s come out of nowhere. He was arguably the top high school recruit in his class. What’s working against him, I think, is that he was injured for Georgia’s 2022 title march with a torn pectoral. What others might  see as a reach, I see as value and need for Atlanta. And it makes the Bears’ decision much easier.

9. Chicago Bears (via Carolina) select Paris Johnson Jr. (OT/Ohio State)

When people talk about the NFL being a passing league, they’re usually talking about the QB position or the WR position, but key to the ability to pass is the ability to protect the passer. Chicago has not been able to do that and it has slowed Justin Fields’ development as a result, to the point that insane people have suggested they should have kept the first overall pick and drafted a new QB to play behind a five-man mesh strainer.. Johnson puts an end to that. There are a few potential offensive linemen who could go in this spot, but I lean Johnson because he is a surefire, day 1, left tackle. He has every measurement you could want in a left tackle prospect. And if, for whatever reason, LT doesn’t work out, he’s played inside at guard too (protecting Justin Fields). And could probably move to RT. Really, on an offensive line this bad, you’ll take Johnson at any position he’d like to play. . 

10. Philadelphia Eagles (via New Orleans) select Peter Skoronski (OL/Northwestern)

I’m listing Skornski as an offensive lineman rather than an offensive tackle not as a slight to him but a nod to his status as the ultimate flexible lineman in this draft. He played LT at Northwestern, but his body type (short-ish arms) and measurables lean more inside in the NFL. For Philadelphia, this is a pick for today but also the future. Their offensive line is aging, almost across the board. Skoronski is flexible enough to fill in anywhere in 2023 (he was a center in high school), and move to his best overall position in 2024 and beyond.

11. Tennessee Titans select Broderick Jones (OT/Georgia)

This is the offensive line portion of our proceedings. The Titans enter the 2023 NFL Draft with a lot of question marks. They likely would have wanted to see more (something?) from 2022 draftee Malik Willis. He was, however, extremely bad while spelling an injured Ryan Tannehill. This must leave the Titans believing QB is a need in their immediate future, as Tannehill is set to turn 35 and carries an insignificant dead cap hit if and when Tennessee chooses to move on from him after 2023. In this immediate spot, Will Levis is on the board. And we’ll have a lot more on him later (needless to say I am not a big fan). Tennessee could trade up, but this is a roster with a lot of age and a lot of needs. Moving draft capital to take a big swing on Anthony Richardson feels a little too daring. So here’s Tennessee taking Jones, a prototypically sized but exceptionally athletic left tackle. He should be a Week 1 starter on the blind side of Tannehill. 

12. Houston Texans (via Cleveland) select Lukas Van Ness (EDGE/Iowa)

This is a scenario where I would usually get the team with two first round picks the best available player on the board, but cornerback isn’t a pressing need. We’ve still not seen a wide receiver off the board and I also thought about Notre Dame tight end Michael Mayer here, but this is team that really struggles to get to the opposing QB and in a class with a handful of really good first round EDGE guys and then a big fall-off, now feels like the right time to take Van Ness, an EDGE with some flexibility to his game. I think he’s a guy who can play on all 3 downs and be successful regardless of scheme, having played all over the D-line at Iowa. 

13. Green Bay Packers (via New York Jets) select Michael Mayer (TE/Notre Dame)

Okay, this is a far enough fall for a really good tight end prospect. Mayer is a perfect modern tight end. His catch radius is “everything, everywhere.” He can line up outside. He can line up inside. He does it all including block. He doesn’t have elite skills, but he’s a good-framed, sure-handed pass catcher, which is the perfect thing to provide a wildly inexperienced QB (Jordan Love) taking over for a first-ballot Hall of Famer.  

14. New England Patriots select Christian Gonzalez (CB/Oregon)

What do you get the team that needs everything??? How about a potential star at corner? This roster is more in line with the teams picking in the top 8 than it is here. Wide receiver is a big need, but my top rated receiver isn’t a good fit here. This would have been a good spot for Mayer, but he’s gone and the Patriots took a flier on Mike Gesicki in free agency, hoping he wasn’t ruined by Mike McDaniel. Offensive line is an issue, but I’m really not high on any of the prospects here. So we move to secondary where there are plenty of live bodies but plenty of questions if any of them, aside from Kyle Dugger, are actually any good. Gonzalez is much closer to Devon Witherspoon than this slide would indicate. He’s a true CB1, with solid production on a terrible Colorado defense (before his transfer to the Ducks) and ideal measurements for the position. I could legitimately see Gonzalez go in the top 10 on Thursday.  Of course, given that and their history, get ready for New England to alert everyone to the existence of an overlooked long-snapper from an NAIA school. 

15. New York Jets (via Green Bay) Darnell Wright (OT/Tennessee)

Well, the Aaron Rodgers trade made this much more challenging. Before the trade happened, I had the Jets taking Christian Gonzalez, creating two separate islands where pass catchers would go to die (metaphorically!). Sliding down two spots leaves the Patriots with the choice between iffy O-line guys and a really good outside, man corner. Easy choice. So do the Jets want an iffy offensive line guy here knowing they’ve traded their second round pick to Green Bay and won’t have a choice of any of the third tier guys? Probably not. And so here I have the Jets taking a guy whose ceiling is solid RT with the 15th overall pick. I think if the question comes down to Wright vs. Anton Harrison of Oklahoma, who is a LT, in this situation I lean Wright. Mekhi Becton showed the briefest of glimmers before injury and/or apathy derailed his career. The Jets need a guy who can come in on day 1 without question marks and fill a role on the line, even if his ceiling isn’t as high. This team is in “win immediately” mode. To do that, sometimes you need to suck it up and hit a single rather than look for the homer that might lead to a strikeout.

16. Washington Commanders select Deonte Banks (CB/Maryland)

I’ve done 3 mock drafts for my own record-keeping and given Washington three different players. First, back in January, I mocked Devon Witherspoon here. In the next one, it was Brian Branch. And in the most recent one, two weeks ago, it was Michael Mayer. And now, here’s Banks who edges out tight end Dalton Kincaid, who I don’t think profiles well with what should be a fairly conservative offense under Jacoby Brissett (no that is not a typo and yes that is a knock on Sam Howell and yes that is a nod to the very underrated, extremely efficient Brissett). Banks gives the Commandos a true CB1 (from Baltimore, who attended the University of Maryland), whereas Branch’s role is more of a slot corner. Banks had probably the most impressive NFL Combine of any corner, running a 4.35 40. He’s long and extremely athletic and should be an early season starter for Washington who is extremely thin in terms of corner talent.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers select Anton Harrison (OT/Oklahoma)

On the other end of the spectrum from Washington, I mocked Joey Porter Jr. to Pittsburgh in every single pre-post mock, but my word, this team needs to take a swing at building some kind of offensive line, which they absolutely did not do in free agency. I’m not even particularly high on Harrison, as previously mentioned, but he’s the best true left tackle prospect left and the Steelers really need live bodies who can protect Kenny Pickett. Pittsburgh is not in anywhere near a “win now” mode. They can take their time with Harrison and hope he reaches his ceiling of “good LT.”  As of today, the only left tackle on the Steelers roster is 2021 4th round pick Dan Moore Jr. They have to build depth on the OL and stop ignoring perhaps the most important positional group in football. 

18. Detroit Lions select Kalijah Cancey (DT/Pittsburgh)

This is the ultimate home run swing for a team that is way ahead of schedule in terms of rebuild. With two first round picks, Detroit can afford to draft at a position of need (IDL) and do so with a prospect whose athletic traits defy everything we know about size. There are plenty of Aaron Donald parallels with Cancey. He’s really undersized for a true NT in a 3-4, but he’s perfect as an interior pass rusher in a 4-man front. Cancey ran a 4.67 40-yard dash at the Combine. And that explosivity shows on the tape. There will be questions about his effectiveness in the run game, but there are also questions about Aaron Donald’s effectiveness in the run game and they won’t matter when he’s a first-ballot hall of famer. I’m not saying Cancey is going to be that, but the traits are there for him to be a pro bowl-caliber pass-rushing  force up front for a team that is building a really imposing defense. 

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers select O’Cyrus Torrence (OT/Florida)

Here is the first spot where I *considered* Will Levis. Tampa is on track to enter training camp with Kyle Trask and Baker Mayfield battling it out for their starting QB job, which is not exactly inspiring. My thinking with this selection is that the Bucs should focus on shoring up an aged, declining offensive line with a really great interior prospect. Yes, it’s boring. But roster-building should sometimes be boring. Torrence was a force at the Senior Bowl practices. Honestly, I could have just watched him overpower rushers in practice drills on an infinite loop. Guards are extremely undervalued in my opinion and this notion that they’re not worth first round picks is extremely wrong. Torrence is extremely big and extremely physical. Rather than using this pick on a QB who I think has a very limited ceiling, Tampa can fill other needs in the hopes of landing a real QB prospect in the 2024 Draft. 

20. Seattle Seahawks select Jaxson Smith-Njigba (WR/Ohio State)

Okay, I’ll stop being cute and we’ll have a wide receiver get drafted. JSN is a great fit for Seattle who could really use a reliable slot guy to pair with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. In real life, I don’t necessarily think the first WR goes at pick 20, but the position is extremely deep this year, albeit with more role players than true stars. In other words, there are a lot of Tobias Harrises and no Joel Embiids. Teams are going to draft for specific need at wideout because the game-changing upside is really not there with many prospects, outside of Quentin Johnson, who is a true outside receiver, just one who doesn’t actually catch the football well. JSN is a great route-runner with sure hands. He’s not going to wow anybody and is in fact, not my favorite receiver in this Draft. But in terms of fit, he’s great here.

21. Los Angeles Chargers select Bijan Robinson (RB/Texas)

Yes, you can use a first round pick on a running back. Yes, you should only do it when it’s a generational type prospect. Yes, Robinson very well might be that. He has every single tool in his bag. Maybe you’d like him to be a better pass blocker, but also maybe you can find something bad to say about Zendaya. The Chargers are not without need. They lack speed on offense and I’ve consistently mocked Zay Flowers to them, but I’ve also consistently mocked Bijan earlier than this. With the likelihood that the Chargers move on from Austin Ekeler, I think it’s very wise to get 5 years of relatively inexpensive control over a 3-down, integral part of your offense. As I said above, the wide receiver group at this Draft is very deep with role players. The Chargers can find speed later on. For now, you draft the guy who scouts say is a better Saquon Barkley (who was drafted 2nd overall in 2018).

22. Baltimore Ravens select Joey Porter Jr. (CB/Penn State)

I am very much here for my own self-created story of the Ravens drafting the son of a Steelers… (what’s a step below “great,” “icon,” and “legend”?). Porter is a work in progress but could develop into a pro bowler at the position. He’s a really big corner who will win battles at the point of attack. In zone coverage he could be a liability. But one-on-one, he’s going to out-physical a lot of NFL receivers. I’m taking him here because the Ravens really need to be better in pass defense and the rotating cast of aged characters in the secondary just isn’t a sustainable long-term plan for success. Nor is alienating your former MVP quarterback, but hey, what do I know? 

23. Minnesota Vikings select Brian Branch (CB/Alabama)

Corner has been a need for the Vikings since football was invented in 1973 by John C. Football. They drafted Andrew Booth Jr. in the 2nd round last year and he was really up and down, just without the ups. He played in just 6 games, made 12 total tackles and defended 0 passes. They added Byron Murphy in free agency. He defended four passes (0 INTs) last year. Then there’s Akayleb Evans. He also had 0 INT last year. And then there’s JoeJuan Williams who they signed from the Patriots who, you guessed it, had 0 INT last year. So productivity is a real problem for Minnesota. Enter Brian Branch who profiles more as a nickel back than a true outside corner, but my word, the Vikings should just take anybody who can cover an opposing receiver. 

24. Jacksonville Jaguars select Myles Murphy (EDGE/Clemson)

Perhaps drafting a very high-upside, but very risky EDGE in the first round in two consecutive drafts isn’t the best way to do player personnel, but Jacksonville is in a pretty good place with their roster. I think if Murphy is off the board, and nearly all of the WRs are available, they should look in that direction. But I don’t want to pass up on Murphy’s upside especially while this roster is in good shape and their division is in shambles. The idea of being able to line up Travon Walker on one end and Myles Murphy on the other is silly stuff. There’s so much speed with Walker and there’s so much potential for physicality with the long-limbed Murphy, who himself doesn’t lack for speed. 

25. New York Giants select Quentin Johnson (WR/TCU)

I mentioned Johnson earlier. He’s the only true outside receiver at the top of the prospect class (Cedric Tillman of Tennessee is probably a tick below). Johnson has a lot of bad. His catching technique needs real refinement, he’s really slow at the point of attack, and he has no real route-running understanding. But every tool is there with coaching and time to see him develop into a true, number 1 receiver. I don’t think any of his problems are not fixable. It’s his catching technique (he’s a chest catcher rather than someone who can high-point) that is the biggest question mark. I think that’s extremely fixable. New York fans and the media will just need to be patient with him (ROTFL). Truly though, there’s no one else in this class at WR who checks the physical and speed boxes together like Johnson. He’s a work in progress but for a team without a real downfield threat, he could be a real weapon early on if the Giants just have him run five go-routes per game. 

26. Dallas Cowboys select Dalton Kincaid (TE/Utah)

Dallas needs pass-catching options outside of CeeDee Lamb. They brought in Brandin Cooks who is somehow still a productive receiver in the NFL, but Kincaid gives them a really different look. Think Jason Witten, if he was way more athletic but couldn’t block. Okay, that’s a very bad analogy. Kincaid is a finesse tight end. He’s not going to stay in as a sixth lineman and run block. He’s a guy who you can line up as the world’s biggest slot receiver and give you game-changing productivity. Dallas let Dalton Schultz walk, so why not bring in an even better Dalton at the same position? 

27. Buffalo Bills select Zay Flowers (WR/Boston College)

Flowers is my favorite of the receivers in this class, but again, this WR class is so specialized that I didn’t think he was a great fit until here. Buffalo is fine on the outside with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. And they’re good enough at TE with Dawson Knox. What they lack is an explosive pass-catcher from the slot and I don’t think anyone in this class is as good at that as Flowers. He is quite undersized but shockingly physical given that. And his footwork is dazzling. His routes are sharp and his speed is impressive. I loved watching him at the Combine and I think he’ll add a really fun element to Buffalo’s already dynamic offense. 

28. Cincinnati Bengals select Darnell Washington (TE/Georgia) 

It is at this point that I had my first “hmmm” moment. The Bengals immediate needs (offensive line, secondary) don’t match up well with this slot, given the prospects available. Cody Mauch (OT/North Dakota State) is a reach here, as he’s probably not a tackle in the NFL. As is Emmanuel Forbes (CB/Mississippi State) or Cam Smith (CB/South Carolina). So why not give a really good football team the most interesting prospect in this NFL Draft? Washington is a unicorn. He’s a 6’7”, 264 pound tight end who ran the 40-yard at 4.64 seconds. He run-blocks like his mother is the running back. Truly, he looks like the world’s most athletic offensive tackle. And he can catch! Catch at an elite level? He’s not there yet. Washington is not Dalton Kincaid. There’s not a lot of route running for him. He is however the ultimate target inside the five yard line, whether it be as a run blocker or as a pass catcher on simple stick routes. I love what he would add to this already potent offense. Cincinnati’s offense right now is a lot of finesse (and QB sacks). Washington adds a much-needed physicality. 

29. New Orleans Saints (via San Francisco via Denver) select Bryan Bresee (DT/Clemson)

The Saints list of needs is long and this is not the place to be when you have a lot of pressing needs and just acquired a “win-now” quarterback in Derek Carr. They could really use a Michael Thomas replacement, but I don’t feel confident that that’s Jordan Addison. I like Jalin Hyatt but he feels superfluous on this roster. I toyed with Cedric Tillman as a true downfield threat to pair with Chris Olave (kind of a DK Metcalf/Tyler Lockett situation). But then you look at the defensive line and it’s just not good. Cam Jordan was a very good defensive end, but he’s 33 and his production has dropped off a cliff. And he’s the best of the front 4. Bresee is a very risky prospect. On the one hand, he was the nation’s top high school recruit and was thought of at times as a top 5 NFL prospect. But a torn ACL ended his 2021 season and a kidney infection ended his 2022 season and his production as a whole was down both years from his freshman season. You’re taking a really big risk here on past upside. Honestly I don’t feel super confident that this works out for the Saints, but they’re in a really rough spot here. It would have been really good if they had a top 10 pick this season. Too bad they absurdly traded that (and a second rounder next year) to move up two spots last year before ultimately trading up again. The Saints pick again at 40 and should target a player like BJ Ojulari (a pass rusher) there. 

30. Philadelphia Eagles select Keion White (EDGE/Georgia Tech)

Brandon Graham is 35 years old and cannot keep doing this forever. Keion White has only been an EDGE, in earnest, for one season (he started his college career as a tight end before switching to pass rush after the 2020 season). In his one full season at EDGE he was extremely productive on an otherwise bad defense at Georgia Tech. This is a home run swing for Philadelphia who I mentioned earlier needed to get younger on their offensive line. Peter Skoronski was a safe pick there in my estimation. They also need to get younger on the defensive line (Fletcher Cox is 32). White can spend a year learning from Brandon Graham, spotting him on third downs here and there, and hopefully growing into his potential, which is that of an 8-10+ sack per season pass rusher.

31. Kansas City Chiefs select Jalin Hyatt (WR/Tennessee)

I mean, you’re just playing with house money if you’re Kansas City. If Hyatt hits, you’ve got a 6-foot speedster who can be a downfield threat or a catch-and-run menace. If he misses, you’re the Kansas City Chiefs. You have Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce and drafted so well last year that even after trading your all-world WR1, you still won the Super Bowl. The Chiefs receiving corps is a hodge-podge right now. You have Marquez Valdez-Scantling who is, in theory, an outside X guy but is extremely unreliable as a pass catcher. And then there’s Kadarius Toney who is more of a gadget guy. And they drafted Skyy Moore last year for whom the jury is still very much deliberating. Hyatt is not a gadget guy. He can be an every down receiver in the NFL with the ability for explosivity on every down. His route running will need to improve and the learning curve could be larger, given that he won’t be playing in Josh Heupel’s weirdo offense at Tennessee. But I like him more than the not-particularly athletic Jordan Addison or the very small Josh Downs. Combinations of size and speed like Hyatt’s are rare. When you’re as good as Kansas City, you can’t pass up that opportunity. 

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And now, a (lot of) word(s) on rocket-armed white QBs: 

If you follow *gestures* this stuff at all, you’ll notice that Will Levis isn’t drafted in my first round despite going as high as 2 in some mocks. That is not a mistake. During the Ole Miss/Kentucky game this year, the ESPN broadcast noted that Todd McShay had heard that NFL talent evaluators valued his “intangibles” more than Bryce Young and CJ Stroud. This anecdote infuriated me. First, “intangibles” is NFL talent evaluator code for “whiteness.” NFL talent evaluators valued how white Will Levis is, versus Bryce Young and CJ Stroud, who are not white. There is no objective universe where someone could watch Bryce Young and Will Levis and conclude that Levis possessed the superior intangibles. Does Levis have a stronger arm than Young? Absolutely. Is he bigger than Young? Objectively, yes. But intangibles? 

It’s an embarrassing bit of old school NFL bullshit that we should have long-since dismissed as pure, 100%, Grade A racial bias. It should never make an ESPN broadcast, especially when the QB with the so-called “superior intangibles” is losing 22-19 to Ole Miss, while completing just 18 passes and getting sacked three times to the tune of a 44.6 QBR. Levis was outplayed that day by Jaxson Dart, who is currently 2nd or 3rd on the Ole Miss QB depth chart after transfer portal season. Dart showed far more pocket presence in that game and a superior ability to improvise under pressure. Levis, in that game and throughout his college career, showed an almost impressive ability to let pockets collapse around him. He took far too many dumb hits and as a result, played hurt a lot. And yes, he was playing behind a terrible offensive line with mediocre, at-best, skill position players. But that’s even more reason to be quicker with decision-making. And it’s not like the NFL game slows down because your offensive line is better. For a guy that even I can see has processing issues, Levis is going to really struggle to get up to NFL speed. Hell, Levis is a guy who could not beat out Sean Clifford at Penn State. If you’ve ever watched Sean Clifford play QB, you’ll understand how ridiculous that is. 

Levis’ measurables are great. He’s 6’4” and very muscly, and can throw a football very far. But those aren’t intangibles. He’s also, generously, not a very accurate QB. His 2022 completion percentage of 65% belies what shows up on tape. Per PFF, nearly ¼ of all of Levis’ pass attempts were thrown on screens or checkdowns behind the line of scrimmage. This is a guy who put up a 17.0 QBR against VANDERBILT. 

I am not, in any way, ragging on Will Levis the human being. He has never harmed me or my loved ones. I’m simply making an argument against a very antiquated way of evaluating talent. He has largely difficult-to-fix mechanical and processing shortcomings. Is he worth a second round pick? 100%. In fact, I have him going fairly early in Round 2 (below). His size alone makes that a no-brainer. Also the salary commitment makes it a no-brainer. Would I draft him over Hendon Hooker? In most cases no, though as my Draft plays out, I do.  That decision was based entirely on what I was trying to get from my QB prospect. I think Hooker, if his knee is healed, could step into an NFL offense on Day 1 and game manage effectively. I don’t think Levis has that mental ability. He’s a gunslinger. And among gunslinging QBs, I think he’s more Ryan Leaf than Brett Favre or even Jay Cutler. 

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2nd Round presented without context or explanation

32. Pittsburgh (via Chicago) selects Drew Sanders (LB/Arkansas)

33. Houston selects Josh Downs (WR/North Carolina)

34. Arizona selects Emmanuel Forbes (CB/Mississippi State)

35. Indianapolis selects Dawand Jones (OT/Ohio State)

36. Los Angeles Rams select Mazi Smith (DT/Michigan)

37. Seattle (via Denver) selects John Michael Schmitz (C/Minnesota)

38. Las Vegas selects Cam Smith (CB/South Carolina)

39. Carolina selects Jordan Addison (WR/USC)

40. New Orleans selects BJ Ojulari (EDGE/LSU)

41. Tennessee selects Will Levis (QB/Kentucky)

42. Green Bay (via Cleveland) selects Will McDonald IV (EDGE/Iowa State)

43. New York Jets select Jack Campbell (LB/Iowa)

44. Atlanta Falcons select Jahmyr Gibbs (RB/Alabama)

45. Green Bay selects Siaki Ika (DT/Baylor)

46. New England selects Felix Anudike-Uzomah (EDGE/Kansas State)

47. Washington selects Hendon Hooker (QB/Tennessee)

48. Detroit selects Luke Musgrave (TE/Oregon State)

49. Pittsburgh selects Cody Mauch (OL/North Dakota State)

50. Tampa Bay selects Sam LaPorta (TE/Iowa)

51. Miami selects Matthew Bergeron (OT/Syracuse)

52. Seattle selects Steve Avila (G/TCU)

53. Chicago (via Baltimore) selects Tuli Tuipulotu (EDGE/USC)

54. Los Angeles Chargers select Tank Dell (WR/Houston)

55. Detroit (via Minnesota) selects Cedric Tillman (WR/Tennessee) 

56. Jacksonville selects Kelee Ringo (CB/Georgia)

57. New York Giants select Antonio Johnson (S/Texas A&M)

58. Dallas select Zach Charbonnet (RB/UCLA)

59. Buffalo selects DJ Turner (CB/Michigan)

60. Cincinnati select Keeanu Benton (DT/Wisconsin) 

61. Chicago (via San Francisco) selects Joe Tippmann (C/Wisconsin)

62. Philadelphia selects Luke Wypler (C/Ohio State)

63. Kansas City selects Blake Freeland (OT/BYU)

2022 Quarterback Madness: The Madness Concludes

Miss Round 2? Read that here. Miss Round 1? There’s a handy link at the top of the Round 2 page. Click often! It’s all about the page views in 2022.

THE MOSTLY ELITE 8

1. Josh Allen (BUF) vs 13. Trevor Lawrence (JAX)

I showed my hand last round when I said that Joe Burrow would beat either Lawrence or Zach Wilson. Obviously Trevor Lawrence isn’t winning this matchup today. Maybe in five years, when Allen crosses into his 30s, Lawrence will be better than him. Right now though, he’s all projection. Allen is real. And he’s really good. 

3. Lamar Jackson (BAL) vs. 2. Patrick Mahomes (KC)

This was the championship match in the 2019 iteration of this exercise, a matchup that Mahomes won. Since that time, Jackson’s statistics have regressed. His completion percentage has dropped each season. He’s throwing for fewer yards. Until this season, he was even averaging fewer yards per carry. If most of the other NFL franchises hadn’t locked up a player of Jackson’s incredible ability, I’d think they were completely insane. Baltimore has earned the right to be regarded as only mildly insane. There is no better QB out there who will be readily available this offseason, next offseason, etc. Especially given how Balitmore’s offense is set up. In a hypothetical world, Aaron Rodgers isn’t moving into this offensive scheme and experiencing a career renaissance. As for Mahomes, the clear winner here, Kansas City traded away his most explosive receiving option, replaced him with Marquez Valdez-Scantling, and he hasn’t missed a damn beat. He is so absurdly consistent. Every single year as a starter, his completion percentage has finished between 65.9 and 66.3%. He’s on pace to throw for over 5,000 yards this season. He turns absolutely nothing into something every single time he steps on the field. And yes, sometimes he does too much and gets caught. But more often than not, he’s doing something we’ve never seen before. He doesn’t have the strongest arm, the biggest frame, the fastest sprint speed, the height, etc etc. He’s just the best. Plain and simple.

1. Jalen Hurts (PHI) vs. 5. Dak Prescott (DAL)

Hurts is a good example of how a QB can develop when there’s talent around him. I know that’s a “well duh” comment, but it seems like a lot of player personnel people in the NFL think you can just will a QB to be good. Hurts was inconsistent last season. There were some Eagles fans who were hoping for Gardner Minshew to take over the team. A lot can change in a year! Philly swung a huge draft night trade for Tennessee’s superstar WR AJ Brown. It’s hard to say that Brown’s presence alone accounts for Hurts’ wild ascension to MVP candidate. But it doesn’t…..oh god….hurt……… Hurts has actually regressed as a runner, averaging 2 fewer yards per carry. Where he hasn’t regressed is in passing. He’s completing 68% of his passes with a 6:1 TD:INT ratio. He’s on pace to throw for over 4,000 yards and he’s not dinking and dunking. He’s averaging 8.5 yards per completion. He has been very, very good. But is he better than Dak Prescott? I don’t think Jalen has done enough to surpass Dak. This was, by far, the closest quarterfinal matchup (and the de facto NFC championship matchup). Hurts’ half season of exceptional play isn’t enough to overtake what Dak has done in his 7 seasons, which statistically speaking is basically Hurts’ 2022 season. 

14. Justin Fields (CHI) vs. 2. Kirk Cousins (MIN)

Kirk Cousins is the only QB over 30 to reach the quarterfinals. Truthfully, this says a lot more about his path here and about the youth movement at the QB position than it does Cousins. You could, theoretically, argue that Justin Fields and Trey Lance are in a similar position and given that Cousins has beaten Lance already, he should advance to the NFC championship. My counterargument goes like this: No. Fields has been in a really unforgiving situation in Chicago, for any QB, nevermind a 23 year old. I shudder to think what Kirk Cousins, a QB with 1/10th the running ability of Fields, would produce with the cast of characters Fields performs with every week. The most troubling thing for me when evaluating Fields is that his accuracy has not improved from his first season. In fact, he’s completing a marginally lower percentage of his 2022 passes while only passing for a marginally higher yard per completion number. It’s not like the Bears are running the Mike Leach Texas Tech offense. Quite frankly, I wish they were, because I think it would be easier to tell what Fields can be as a QB. If he’s a sub-60% accuracy QB with mobility, is that a franchise QB? By contrast, Lamar Jackson completed 66% of his passes in his second season, when he won the MVP. And I don’t think Fields is quite the runner that Lamar is. Working in Fields’ favor over Trey Lance is that he’s a season and a half into his career. We’ve seen flashes of what he can be. And he can be very good. Working in Fields’ favor over Cousins is that he’s 11 years his junior and so much more dynamic. 

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP

1. Josh Allen (BUF) vs. 2. Patrick Mahomes (KC)

For as long as both guys are in the AFC, they’re going to find each other. In terms of profile alone, Allen is Super-Sized Mahomes. Bigger, faster, stronger arm, stronger in general. I mean, he’s 6’5”, 240 LBS and he’s a QB. The reason why I lean Mahomes over Allen in this, the marquee Final Four game, is that he’s more accurate with the football and when he reaches into his bag to make a highlight play, he more often than not hits. Meanwhile, Allen has the tendency to turn makable first downs into interceptions. I’m certainly picking nits here. These two are far and away the two best QBs in the NFL and number 3, whoever that is, isn’t close.

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP

5. Dak Prescott (DAL) vs. 13. Justin Fields (CHI)

This is the early Final Four game. 6:09 p.m. EST tip-off. This is another case of Prescott winning because he’s been consistently good and that matters more, at this point, than potential. 

CHAMPIONSHIP

Patrick Mahomes (KC) vs. Dak Prescott (DAL)

It’s Patrick Mahomes. It was always going to be Patrick Mahomes. Dak Prescott is a good, almost underrated quarterback. When he’s healthy, he’s an absolute Top 10, probably Top 7 NFL QB. And we’ve seen runs from Dak where he hits another gear. But he’s not Mahomes. No one is. Time will tell if Joe Burrow finds another gear or Justin Fields grows into his immense potential or Justin Herbert gets an offensive coordinator who isn’t scared of him. Even when that happens, I’m not sure that any of those guys are better than Mahomes. He’s the Stephen Curry of the NFL. He’s doing things that others will mimic but no one will replicate. He’s a once-in-a-lifetime talent.

Quarterback Madness: Round 2

Did you miss Round 1? Why do you have more important things in your life? Why do you hurt me so much?

Sorry! It’s hard to find a good therapist in Los Angeles. On to the matchups:

AFC

1. Josh Allen (BUF) vs. 9. Joe Burrow (CIN)

Gut reaction is to immediately take Allen. So you go searching for edges that Burrow might have. Youth? Well, despite being drafted two years after Allen, Burrow was actually born in the same year as him. Burrow does have a Super Bowl appearance, while Allen has yet to reach the conference championship. But Josh Allen wasn’t part of the Buffalo defense that allowed Kansas City to drive into field goal range in 13 seconds in the greatest game ever played. Tools? Well, every tool that Burrow has, Allen has even more of. Burrow can scramble a bit. Allen, meanwhile, can truck free safeties across the Canadian border in the open field. Arm strength is a check for Allen too. Accuracy is the one area where Burrow has the decided advantage. Allen, I think, is at best a 65% accuracy guy in the career aggregate, whereas Burrow is a 70%er.  I think this is not quite as clearly and obviously Allen as it might seem. That said, now that he has mostly harnessed his traits and abilities, I give him the slight edge in a seriously unfair second round matchup for Burrow.

5. Zach Wilson (NYJ) vs. 13. Trevor Lawrence (JAX)

To be clear, Joe Burrow would unquestionably win against either QB here. I’ve already stated that Trevor Lawrence is head and shoulders beyond the other QBs in his draft class. That includes the guy selected right after him, Zach Wilson. Wilson and Lawrence have a lot of the same problems (silly mistakes), but Lawrence looks like he’s got things more figured out at this point in the process and as I’ve said before (in my 2021 mock draft) I don’t think Wilson ever figures it out.

6. Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) vs. 3. Lamar Jackson (BAL)

I did not believe my eyes that Tua was the highest rated QB in ESPN’s Total QBR metric this season. There appears to be two camps with Tua: 1.) Miami Dolphins fans who interpret any criticism of him as a slight to them personally and 2.) Rational people. I’m in the second camp. The Dolphins offense is entertaining as hell. Believe it or not, if you pair two of the NFL’s most dynamic wide receivers with one of the most creative offensive minds calling plays, the results will be fun! Wow! Now, in Tagovailoa’s defense, Miami looked a different team with Skylar Thompson and Teddy Bridgewater helming them. Mike McDaniel uses Tua’s strengths (short and intermediate accuracy) so well. Tua’s biggest weakness is, well, his weak arm. No matter what the first camp says, an underthrow is an underthrow. And Tua is prone to the underthrow. Tyreek Hill is able to hide some of the ugliness with his unrivaled ability to twist back for bad passes. In a Sunday night game against Pittsburgh, the Steelers dropped four clear and clean interceptions. I think Tua’s status as the league leader in QBR has a lot to do with the system and the skill players. Meanwhile, in Charm City, Lamar Jackson is quietly leading an offense of Mark Andrews and assorted randos towards the playoffs. And I can’t help but imagine how incredible Jackson would be in the McDaniel system that Tua is in. Lamar is absolutely frustrating at times. His accuracy is not elite and frankly, it’s not even close to elite. There will come a time where he will slow down and when he loses that elite speed, I wonder what he becomes. However, he’s 25 years old. That time isn’t nigh. Much like the Allen vs. Burrow matchup, talent and attributes win out here.

7. Justin Herbert (LAC) vs. 2. Patrick Mahomes (KC)

I think there’s a case to be made that there are five AFC QBs who are better than the best NFC QB. Justin Herbert is one of those five. His detractors, amplifying in size and volume as they are, will point to his statistical regression in 2022. I would simply remind them that he’s playing in the most conservative passing offense in football and that he’s been playing through a rib injury. He’s still on pace to throw for a hair under 4,500 yards and 30 TDs. If that’s regression…cool? He’s still 24. He’s still 6’6”. And he’s far from playing in the ideal offensive scheme for his abilities. All of this to say, I’m still a Herbert stan, I think he’s the third or fourth best QB in the AFC and he gets absolutely boat-raced by Patrick Mahomes in this matchup.

NFC

1. Jalen Hurts (PHI) vs. 8. Desmond Ridder (ATL)

Here, we are comparing a person who has never taken an NFL snap against the QB of the League’s only undefeated team. This is not a particularly interesting matchup. Until we have any idea what Desmond Ridder is, he can’t beat out a dynamic weapon like Hurts.

5.  Dak Prescott (DAL) vs. 13. Kyler Murray (ARI)

This is the only truly compelling 2nd round matchup in the NFC. I touched upon Kyler Murray’s bad coaching in Round 1. But let’s look at Murray. This is his fourth NFL season, all of them with the same offense. He’s on target to finally, albeit barely, eclipse the 4,000 yard passing mark. In Dak Prescott’s fourth NFL season, he hit 4,900 passing yards. “But Kyler is such an electric runner,” you say to your phone. Sure. Other than Lamar Jackson, no other QB has as much pure speed as Kyler. That said, he’s a bit reckless with the ball. In 33 fewer NFL games, Murray has fumbled 8 more times than Prescott. And Dak is no slouch when he needs to run, averaging about a yard per carry less than Kyler. The only question mark with Dak, for me, is his health. Since 2020, he’s played in just 24 of Dallas’ 41 games.It’s a risky gamble, but I’m willing to take it on a guy who has been a more consistently good performer in the NFL. Give me Dak.

11. Jameis Winston (NO) vs. 14. Justin Fields (CHI)

There’s enough about Justin Fields that is deeply intriguing that it’s hard to give up on him just 1 ½ seasons into his career. He has at times looked maddingly poor, but how much of that is to blame on bad coaching, shoddy offensive line play, and the worst set of skill position players in the NFL? He’s shown enough flashes of brilliance that I’ll take that over a Jameis Winston 30/30 season. 

7.  Trey Lance (SF) vs. 2. Kirk Cousins (MIN)

The answer is Kirk Cousins. You know the answer is Kirk Cousins. You don’t want the answer to be Kirk Cousins because he’s not terribly athletic, he’s dorky, he manages to throw a dozen avoidable interceptions every season, and he is paid very handsomely. You are inclined to loathe Kirk Cousins, the patriarch of all mediocre white men. Everyone rags on Kirk. I rag on Kirk. Trey Lance would be fortunate to provide the production that Kirk Cousins has over his career. The 49ers took a massive swing on Lance. I’ll stand in the box and take my walk with Kirk to the 3rd round. 

Tomorrow, we’ll wrap up the whole thing. Patrick Mahomes will win, but swing by anyway please.

2021 NFL Mock Draft

What follows is my mock draft. It’s different from most mock drafts because nobody talks to me, I’ll probably not proofread it, and I don’t plan to promote it on social media.

Why should you continue reading? I follow the sport. I read a lot. I follow college football. I pay $20 a year for this domain name. If you’ve stumbled here through an errant Google or Bing search, I’m sorry. But maybe keep reading.

I write these posts for me, really. Sure, I’d like for someone to read this and think that I can write competently and know a thing or two about football. But more than anything, I like to have a place where I can look back on my thoughts a few years from now and say “Good job” or “Bad job.”

The mock draft below is not my attempt to go 32/32 (I’m bolding this for the people who don’t read the intro). I’m draft for each team as though I were their GM, operating with unilateral decision making powers. I’m drafting the players I think are best at each position based on what I saw in college and what I’ve read from a collection of draft sources. Let’s go.

1.Jacksonville Jaguars select Trevor Lawrence (QB/Clemson) I’m not going to be cute here. Lawrence is the best QB in this draft and probably the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck. He’s so good that the most common knock on him at this point is that maybe he doesn’t love football like a maniacal obsessive. I think that’s a fine thing. He’ll be a Day 1 starter and a really good one at that.

2. New York Jets select Justin Fields (QB/Ohio State) In real life, the Jets will take Zach Wilson. I’ll talk about him at some point in this first round (probably!). Of course, this pick didn’t need to be used on a QB. The Jets had Sam Darnold, who they just drafted third overall in 2018 (after giving up a haul of picks to move up to select him), but they traded him to Carolina earlier this month for table scraps in the form of draft picks. Fields to me is a much safer bet than Wilson. His ceiling is higher than I think he’s getting credit for and I wonder how much of the negative thinking around him is because of Ohio State’s failure to create good NFL QBs (and also racism). Fields is not Cardale Jones, JT Barrett, or Dwayne Haskins. Fields is deadly accurate in the pocket, can throw on the run, and has the size you want in a starting QB. There’s also a bunch of game tape against NFL-light defenses (Clemson twice, Alabama once, Big 10 opponents). Zach Wilson played Coastal Carolina last year and wasn’t very good.

3. San Francisco 49ers select Trey Lance (QB/North Dakota State) San Francisco traded up to this spot to, the world assumes, draft a quarterback. I think in a perfect world, they’d take one more run at it with Jimmy Garoppolo, but they must be either nervous about his medicals or just generally nervous about him medically. The other 21 starters are really good. Collectively probably a top 5 team in the NFL. Injuries ravaged them last year, including to Jimmy G. I would have stayed put at the 12 spot where there will be really good value. Here, I take Trey Lance who is a more accurate Josh Allen on paper. Lance is big, fast, and very accurate. He didn’t lose a game in college and didn’t throw an interception. He also didn’t play against FBS competition. But the attributes and attitude are great on Lance and teams have done well with North Dakota State quarterbacks in recent years (the Eagles don’t get to the Super Bowl without Carson Wentz). Can Lance start on Day 1 for a team that should have Super Bowl aspirations? That’s a good question and one that leaves me wondering why the 49ers traded into this spot.

4. Atlanta Falcons select Kyle Pitts (TE/Florida) Truthfully, the Jets should have kept Darnold and drafted Pitts. Likewise Miami should have stayed at 3 and drafted Pitts. Pitts is a unicorn. He’s a create-a-player in Madden. He can play outside as a receiver. He can play inside as a tight end. He can be physical over the middle. He can burn cornerbacks deep. Pitts should define the tight end position for the next generation and should be the ultimate gamechanger. Are there other needs for Atlanta? Certainly. Their defense is the pits (pun intended) or maybe it’s…for the birds (ha!). Atlanta could trade back into the teens to draft one of the cornerbacks, but they’d be passing up on the kind of talent that gets GMS fired for passing up on them.

5. Cincinnati Bengals select Penei Sewell (OT/Oregon) Last season ended for the Bengals when their franchise quarterback, who had spent the season being hammered behind a bad offensive line, tore his ACL and MCL. You don’t draft a franchise quarterback and throw him behind a bad offensive line just like you don’t buy a Bugatti and leave it unlocked in a Von’s parking lot with the keys in and the door wide open. Sewell, as a prospect, is a lot more than just insurance for Burrow. This isn’t meant to sell him short. But Cincy would be making a huge mistake if they drafted a skill position player here. Sewell should be a top-tier LT for the next decade. You cannot win in the NFL without players like Sewell.

6. Miami Dolphins select Ja’Marr Chase (WR/LSU) Chase sat out the 2020 “season” as did Sewell and others who you’ll find here. When we last saw Chase on the field, he was making then-Clemson CB AJ Terrell his son in the National Championship Game. Terrell went on to be a first round pick by the Falcons and was mostly fine in his rookie season. Chase has the potential to be a whole heck of a lot better than “fine.” Think Justin Jefferson in Minnesota. Chase isn’t a huge outside receiver. But he’s fast and plays physically for his size (6’0″). And then there’s that tape against AJ Terrell where it’s hard to understate just how much he outplayed Terrell. Miami should stick with Tua and surround him with as many high-end skill position players as possible. Outside of Pitts, it doesn’t get more high end than Ja’Marr Chase in this draft.

7. Detroit Lions select Zach Wilson (QB/BYU) Look, the Lions are a bad football team. Really bad. I don’t think there’s another team in the NFL who is further away from simply being a playoff team than Detroit. They made the weird offseason trade for Jared Goff, who is absolutely nothing more than a middling QB. They hired an absolute weirdo football robot (Dan Campbell) to be their head coach. And they lost their top receiver, Kenny Golladay, in free agency to the Giants. If I’m in this spot, I’m taking the best trade offer on the table and acquiring assets to begin a legitimate 3 year build. I’ve never proposed trades before in a mock and I’m not going to do one here (Denver moving up would make a lot of sense). The other elephant in the room here is that on draft night, Zach Wilson will not be here. As we’ve established, he’s getting drafted IRL by the Jets, which means that on draft night, Detroit should draft the best available quarterback here if they’re not moving back. As for Wilson, I’m not a believer in him as the second best QB in this class. I think he certainly has a high ceiling, but his floor is an Olympic diving pool. It really feels like Wilson through one pass at his pro day and earned himself millions of dollars. And if Zach Wilson is making cross body, 60 yard passes on the regular, I can’t really say his team will be winning games. I’m much more concerned with his accuracy in the short and medium field than if he can do circus tricks with a football (that, by the way, Justin Fields can also do). TLDR: Detroit is a mess and Wilson is either the answer (as a franchise quarterback) or the answer (in the form of the impetus to tear it all down and start from scratch).

8. Carolina Panthers select Devonta Smith (WR/Alabama) Carolina has Teddy Bridgewater (traded to Denver while this was in DRAFTS), PJ Walker, and Sam Darnold on their roster, so taking Mac Jones here would be superfluous. Darnold deserves a chance to play QB for a competent coach (Joe Brady is a decided upgrade over Adam Gase), so I’m taking the Heisman Trophy winner and pairing him with DJ Moore and Robby Anderson to give Darnold a really diverse receiving corps. Smith is a human Dyson vacuum in the slot or outside. Whether he can play on the outside in the NFL at his size (6’0″, 170 LBS) is the biggest question mark. He runs precise routes, he’s a team leader, he’s explosive at the line. He’s everything you want in a receiver. Except he weighs 170 LBS. Carolina has a window to compete with Matt Ryan aging and the Saints in transition. Starting over with a rookie QB just doesn’t feel the way to go here. Especially when you have a talented, young QB who has never had a real shot to be good.

9. Denver Broncos select Micah Parsons (LB/Penn State) If this scenario plays out and the only QB on the board is Mac Jones, Denver should hand in this card in roughly 2.5 seconds. Parsons is a perfect fit for head coach Vic Fangio’s defense, in that he’s an excellent and versatile linebacker. It’s rare to see an inside linebacker go this high in the modern NFL, but Parsons is worth the top 10 pick. He can cover the Travis Kelce’s of the world and tackle the Josh Jacobs’s too. You can build a really good defense around guys like Parsons. And when you play Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert 4 times per year, you better have a good defense.

10. Dallas Cowboys select Patrick Surtain II (CB/Alabama) I fall in love with big cover cornerbacks very very easily. And boy did I fall in love with Surtain II. Dallas’s pass defense was abysmal in 2020 and the jury is still out on Trevon Diggs, their second round CB selection in last year’s draft. Diggs’ former Alabama teammate is the prototypical outside man cover corner. He shut down half the field in college. That won’t be the case initially in the NFL. Teams will challenge rookie corners. But I think Surtain has the ball instincts to make teams regret that quickly. He won’t win DROY because the counting stats won’t be there, but the counting stats likely won’t be there because teams will avoid his side of the field.

11. New York Giants select Alijah Vera-Tucker (OL/USC) Whether the Giants want to use Vera-Tucker at Tackle or Guard is their choice. I’d start him at Guard. He’s versatile enough to play almost anywhere on the offensive line and the Giants have loooooong had trouble protecting the QB. The Giants are in an interesting spot here with the QB Jones still on the board (if other mocks are more accurate, it’ll likely be Fields that falls). Vera-Tucker is arguably a reach here depending on who you read. For me, this is a great spot for a versatile offensive lineman with a great motor. But the Giants would be wise to consider acquiring assets, moving down into the lower teens/early 20s (Chicago at 20 would make sense) and hoping that Vera-Tucker is there. And if he’s not, the Giants have a need for an edge rusher, an interior defensive lineman, and even Saquon Barkley insurance.

12. Philadelphia Eagles select Jaylen Waddle (WR/Alabama) Philly finds itself inching closer and closer to Detroit Lions territory with this pick. Last year, with Justin Jefferson on the board, the Eagles inexplicably drafted Jalen Reagor. Two years ago, they used a second round pick on JJ Arcega-Whiteside just a few slots after AJ Brown and a few before DK Metcalf. It’s time for Philly to stop being cute on draft day and take the best available player at a position of real need for them. Luckily for the Eagles, they have a bunch of draft picks this year to fill out a depleted roster. But if they’re going to find out if Jalen Hurts can be their QB long-term, he’ll need more than Reagor and JAW catching passes. Waddle played in just five games last year (only 4 of which he was healthy for) and averaged 20 yards per reception in each game. He is explosive and could find himself in the Pro Bowl solely as a return man in the NFL. He is much more than a specialist though. There really is no gap between Waddle and his Alabama teammate Devonta Smith and I could definitely see Waddle get drafted ahead of his smaller college teammate despite Smith’s collection of college hardware.

13. Los Angeles Chargers select Rashawn Slater (OT/Northwestern) With Waddle off the board, this has to come down to one of the two remaining high-level tackles or Jaycee Horn. Protecting Justin Herbert is imperative which makes this an easy decision. Slater was an absolute brick wall in terms of protecting the QB at Northwestern and would be a Day 1 starter on Herbert’s blind side. (A note on Herbert: I’ve been playing NFL draft guessing games for a long time and once in a while, I’m right, while sometimes I’m wrong. Never have I been more wrong than with Justin Herbert, who I didn’t think was worth a first round pick last year. Herbert showed incredible growth from his time at Oregon and looks to be a franchise cornerstone in Los Angeles. Mea culpa on that one.)

14. Minnesota Vikings select Christian Darrisaw (OT/Virginia Tech) Minnesota is another team, like Philly with about 18 holes to fill on their roster. The board as it played out here, very much fell in their favor. Vera-Tucker would also have been a great pick for them because of his versatility, as Minnesota has real needs on the interior of the offensive line too, but Darrisaw is too good and was too consistent at Virginia Tech to pass up here. He allowed zero sacks and only 5 quarterback hurries in his last season in Blacksburg. Equally good as a run blocker and a pass blocker, he makes perfect sense for the Vikings, who will also have a number of suitors at this point.

(SIDEBAR BREAK: I think it’s very likely that one of the five QBs takes a tumble on Thursday. Here it’s Mac Jones because I think he probably should take a tumble. New England is coming up and the experts seem to think they’ll swing a trade to move up and draft a QB. But there are a bunch of other teams that should also consider moving into the mid-teens if a QB is available (Pittsburgh, Washington, Chicago, maybe the Saints). And New England has never been shy about needlessly trading back and acquiring draft capital that they’ll waste on kickers and long snappers.)

15. New England Patriots select Mac Jones (QB/Alabama) The Patriots should be much, much better in 2021 than they were in 2020. They spent big in free agency and will get a number of 2020 opt-outs back. One area where they are decidedly not better is QB. Cam Newton was awful in the latter stretches of the season and should absolutely not be the Week 1 starter for any NFL team. New England didn’t pursue an upgrade which has to mean they’re targeting a QB, right? Jones is not the perfect NFL QB. He’s very accurate at all three levels, but was also throwing to two first rounders and handing off to maybe another. And he was playing behind an offensive line with at least three top 60 picks this year. That said, he’s not terribly dissimilar in makeup to Tom Brady. In fact, his arm is probably a little stronger. His relative immobility hurts, but would you rather have a QB that can make all the throws (Jones) or whatever it is that Cam Newton is now?

16. Arizona Cardinals select Jaycee Horn (CB/South Carolina) Patrick Peterson is gone, which at this juncture in his career isn’t the worst thing in the world for Arizona. If Horn falls, he should be the pick. He’s another big (6’1″) man-cover corner with experience playing at the highest level in college football. Look for this pick to lean defense for a franchise that will need to upgrade at all three levels to make a serious playoff run during Kyler Murray’s prime and while DeAndre Hopkins is still around.

17. Las Vegas Raiders select Trevon Moehrig (S/TCU) Vegas fits into the Minnesota/Philly spot of just needing players everywhere. The Raiders decided to essentially layoff their entire offensive line, so that would make sense here, but there’s no real value left on this board. I go with Moehrig who is a versatile safety that can play in the slot (in fact he took as many snaps there in 2020 as he did at safety) and is a sound tackler. Not a sexy “Raiders” pick but a really good football player on a team that needs a lot of those.

18. Miami Dolphins select Zaven Collins (OLB/Tulsa) Miami has 4 of the top fifty picks in this draft, so while some may see drafting Collins here as a reach, I see it as an investment opportunity. He’s an athletic freak at 6’5″. He can play at OLB as an edge rusher or as a coverage backer. Brian Flores is a great defensive coach who should be able to tap into Collins’ size and skill to make him a star, albeit an unconventional one given his size. Had Collins gone to a bigger school, given his measurables, I think you’re looking at a top 10 pick in this draft. He’s really good.

19. Washington Football Team select(s) Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB/Notre Dame) This is the perfect scenario for the WFT. Sure, the PERFECT scenario would be Trevor Lawrence inexplicably and impossibly falling to 19. Short of one of the 5 QBs being there (and I honestly don’t even think Mac Jones would be a great pick for them) though, this is the guy to target. Pass rush is not a problem for WFT. Pass coverage in the medium game is though and Owusu-Koramoah solves that problem on day one. He’s explosively quick for his position, something you can credit in part to his relative lack of size (2 inches shorter and 20+ LB lighter than Micah Parsons). QB is going to be an issue for the Football Team in 2021 and beyond. And they could certainly use a WR in this draft. But there is some depth at those positions, especially WR.

20. Chicago Bears select Greg Newsome II (CB/Northwestern) When in doubt, take the local kid? The Bears are in a no-win situation. There’s a fall-off in talent at about this point and they have a lot of needs. They drafted Jaylon Johnson last year and he showed competency as a cornerback. Corner isn’t the most pressing of needs for Chicago (that’s QB), but Newsome is the top player on my board and they could certainly stand to get better in the secondary. The front 6 or 7 should be just fine.

21. Indianapolis Colts select Elijah Moore (WR/Mississippi) …and they don’t even have to think about it very long. Moore is the prototypical slot WR, which I think 10 years ago might have sounded dismissive, but really, how often do teams not run a 3 WR set in the modern NFL. He’s blazingly fast with great hands. Think a richer man’s TY Hilton.

22. Tennessee Titans select Kadarius Toney (WR/Florida) It’s a run on 6’0″ and under SEC wideouts. Toney is so quick he makes Elijah Moore look like late career Wes Welker, who would simply catch the ball and fall down. There are less flashy wideouts, like Rashod Bateman, on the board here, but Toney would give the physical Titans offense a spark that would really make teams less inclined to load the box to stop Derrick Henry. With AJ Brown doing AJ Brown stuff on the outside and Toney doing what he can do (shredding apart the middle of the field), Tennessee would have one of the more dynamic offenses in the AFC.

23. New York Jets select Kwity Paye (Edge/Michigan) The Jets need guys who can get to the QB. Vinny Curry’s 3 total sacks in 2020 just ain’t cutting it. Pair the twitchy and technically sound Paye with Carl Lawson on the outside and, of course, you’ve got Quinnen Williams in the middle and all of a sudden, the Jets front 4 looks way better than it did in 2020.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers select Teven Jenkins (OL/Oklahoma State) I have Jenkins listed as an OL rather than an OT because the knock on him is that he has short arms, typically an indicator that a move to the inside is coming. For Pittsburgh that would be fine because their offensive line was atrocious in 2020 and they lost both of their tackles. Pittsburgh needs a QB and needs one soon. I’d look for them to move up in the second round (from 55) to take the best available QB to sit behind Roethlisberger for a year. This spot is just too early to take a Kellen Mond however.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars select Liam Eichenberg (OG/Notre Dame) Like Jenkins before him, Eichenberg is a short-armer. Otherwise, we’re looking at a guy who should be a sure-fire top 20 pick. As it stands, he might not get selected on Thursday, but whoever does draft him is going to get a versatile lineman who they can try at tackle, should the need be there. Jacksonville is better off with him at guard where he should excel. He registered just under a 90 grade from Pro Football Focus last season. He’s good and I’m not sure why there’s not more chatter about him.

26. Cleveland Browns select Christian Baramore (DT/Alabama) Baramore had an absolutely phenomenal CFP National Championship game. On a field that featured enough players to make their own first round, Baramore might have been the best player out there. The tape doesn’t all look like that for him though, which is why he falls to the Browns who are desperate for an interior force on their defensive line. If they get the guy who ran roughshod over Ohio State’s offensive line, they’ll have the steal of the draft. If they get the balance of good tape-bad tape, they’re still upgrading.

27. Baltimore Ravens select Jayson Oweh (Edge/Penn State) Derek Wolfe is a fine player, but at this stage in his career, he’s just not an every down pass rusher. Enter Oweh, whose measurables (size/speed) are off the charts and whose game tape is…fine. Baltimore has a way of getting the best out of their guys and I think this is a perfect landing spot for an uber talented guy who just didn’t put it all together in college.

28. New Orleans Saints select Caleb Farley (CB/Virginia Tech) Do this little exercise six months ago and Farley isn’t escaping the top 15. His medicals are a concern. Sciatica. Herniated discs. Multiple surgeries. He sat out the 2020 season so there’s no fresh tape on him. This is the riskiest pick in the first round. If Farley is healthy enough to go, the Saints are getting the best corner outside of Surtain, at a position of need. If he’s not, a team that has a lot of nagging little holes will have wasted valuable draft capital.

29. Green Bay Packers select Dillon Radunz (OT/North Dakota State) Two NDSU players in the first round and only one Clemson player. Go figure. Anyway, wide receiver would be a smart pick here, but I’m just not that high on Rashod Bateman and my most recent memory of Green Bay is watching their offensive line get annihilated by the Bucs in the playoffs. The window to win with Aaron Rodgers is closing and who knows what Jordan Love will be. Better to wait on one of the second round wideouts and protect their future Hall of Famer better than they did in 2020.

30. Buffalo Bills select Jaelen Phillips (Edge/Miami) As versatile of an edge rusher as you’ll find, Buffalo could move Phillips inside at times should the need arise. Buffalo drafted AJ Epenesa last year to mixed results. The one area where the Bills need to get better is pressuring the QB. They just might want to get Phillips (who played at Miami after transferring from UCLA) some warm weather gear.

31. Baltimore Ravens select Terrance Marshall Jr. (WR/LSU) Marshall is a big, fast outside receiver, which is arguably the position most lacking for the Ravens. Lamar Jackson needs guys to throw to and especially guys who can get downfield. Offensive tackle is certainly a consideration after Baltimore traded Orlando Brown Jr. for this pick, but the board has shook out in a way where I think at 58 the Ravens will be able to solidify their line with a bit of a project. And I trust this front office more than any other to select well.

32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers select Asante Samuel Jr. (CB/Florida State) No team is perfect, certainly, but Tampa is so good that they just won the Super Bowl with a 43 year old QB who has lost a significant portion of his arm strength and has the mobility of a cinder block. There’s a line of thinking that they need to look to the post-Brady era, but I’m of the mind that they need to shore up the immediate areas of weakness and one of them is CB. Samuel can play the slot if needed and provides depth at a position that had a topsy-turvy 2020. The re-signing of Antonio Brown made this a no-brainer to me.


The next QB off the board should be Kellen Mond, who is built in the Dak Prescott mold. He’s got an incredible arm and good size. Someone of the Washington, Pittsburgh, Chicago group of teams who missed out on one of the five should target Mond in the middle of the 2nd round.

It was hard to find a spot for one of the running backs in this draft. It’s simply the nature of the NFL. Najee Harris, Travis Etienne, and Javonte Williams would all have been first rounders in the past. Any one of the three could easily be an Offensive Rookie of the Year in the right scheme, especially Williams who I think will catch a lot of people off guard.

The only receiver who I have falling is Rashod Bateman who was just too inconsistent for me at Minnesota. He’s not particularly big, nor is he particularly fast. He’s a good route runner, but we saw what being a good route runner can get you in the NFL in Jerry Jeudy last year. I want guys who can get themselves open and with guys like Elijah Moore and Kadarius Toney, Bateman slips to round 2. He should still be a productive enough receiver in the NFL, but he isn’t going to be a star.

My second round (and later) wideouts to watch are Rondale Moore, who will be used as a gadget guy because he’s basically my size, D’Wayne Eskridge another in the mold of Elijah Moore and Kadarius Toney who is being overlooked, I’d imagine, because he played college in Kalamazoo, and Tylan Wallace who is a physical wideout for his size and with the right team looks to be a long-term star in the slot.

I’ll be very interested to see who drafts Gregory Rousseau, a giant edge rusher from Miami who sat out the 2020 season and has seen his draft stock slip significantly. He’s a freak in the mold of Calais Campbell, but I think that kind of size will scare off some teams into thinking he won’t have the speed to be a productive rusher in the NFL.

I’ll probably have more thoughts on Twitter @jason_botelho. Enjoy the Draft.

Good Young Baseballing Men

In 2012, I wrote the first installment of my MLB 25 and Under team. Remember Barack Obama’s first presidential term? Things were different then. 

That rotation (Kershaw, Strasburg, Bumgarner, Sale, Darvish) turned out to be really, really good, winning multiple Cy Young awards, as well as a couple World Series MVPs (and having a good Twitter presence, Yu). On offense, I selected Brett Lawrie as my third baseman and later in the post, questioned whether Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt were good enough all-around hitters. It was, let’s say, a mixed bag. 

I’d like to think my evaluation eye has gotten better over the years. One thing that has certainly gotten better is the number of really young players earning roles as valuable full-time Major League contributors. Over the last few weeks, we’ve seen three prospects make their Major League debuts in the playoffs. Two of them are pitchers. That’s literally never happened before. 

The biggest reason, I think, for this is that the 2020 season is a baseball fever dream. Teams are playing playoff games in empty stadiums that aren’t their own. Everyone is wearing masks in the dugout (some even covering their noses!). Perhaps most importantly though, rosters are bigger. Teams are playing games with a 28 man roster, which I am absolutely in support of going forward. The more the merrier. Especially when the “more” is more supremely talented 20 year olds whose service time clocks get to start running earlier than they have in the past. Because as much as I enjoy the minor leagues (unlike Rob Manfred), Amarillo, Texas is no place for Mackenzie Gore. 

We’ll probably never see an under-25 rotation quite like the 2012 iteration, but the guys you’ll see below will have plenty of time to prove themselves as equals to the Strasburgs and Sales of the world. Maybe not Kershaw, but that’s no slight to anybody. 

Quick note: eligibility, as previously established in the 2017 post, is that a player has to have been 25 year old or younger on the day the regular season ended (September 27, 2020). Apologies to all players born on or before September 27, 1994. 

Starting Pitchers (we’ll carry six because this is a 28 man roster):

Shane Bieber (Age 25) is a no-brainer in this category. He’s your presumptive AL Cy Young award winner after producing a gaudy 3.2 bWAR in just 12 starts in 2020. He punched out 122 in 77.1 IP. His ERA+ was 281. His stats were just completely off the charts. Had this been a 162 game season and he produced stats like this, we’d be talking about the greatest pitching season in modern MLB history. He’s improved dramatically in each of his three seasons and looks to be the cornerstone of the Cleveland rotation until they trade him in his first arbitration year. 

Germán Márquez (Age 25) has developed into a well-above league average pitcher despite pitching in Denver. He’ll give up a lot of homers, but has kept his career walk rate under 3 per 9 IP, which is not outstanding, but is a key to pitchers having success at Coors. Of concern, his K/9 rate has dropped each of the past two seasons, but given his sustained track record of success, he was the second surest pick. 

Jack Flaherty (Age 24) was excellent in 2019. He was not excellent in 2020. His K/9 rate stayed steady, but when he wasn’t striking out batters, he was giving up a lot of hits (1.2/9 more than in 2019). Likewise, he walked one more batter per 9. I’m willing to bet on 2020 being an aberration for the very talented Flaherty. 

Zach Plesac (Age 25) did a really selfish and stupid thing in 2020. It’s possible that Plesac could win multiple Cy Youngs in his career and all anyone will remember was Zach’s Night Out. When he wasn’t at the alternate camp site being punished for his stupidity, Plesac was outstanding. His WHIP was microscopic. His K/BB ratio was better than 9/1. The only thing worth concern with Plesac is his FIP, which is over a run higher than his ERA for his career. Even still, he’ll be a fixture of this rotation along with Shane Bieber, until they trade him in his first arbitration year.

And now…the rookies. The list of rookie starting pitchers on my preliminary list was long. Very long. Sixto Sanchez, Triston McKenzie, Nate Pearson, Tarik Skubal, Brady Singer, Casey Mize were just some of the names on that list. I went with Dustin May and Jesus Luzardo. 

Jesus Luzardo (Age 23) beat out Skubal in the battle of the lefties. I’m very high on Skubal, but Luzardo simply has the better stuff and the better command right now. I fully expect his unspectacular 2020 numbers to improve with a normal season in 2021. 

Dustin May (Age 23) was actually a no-brainer. The Dodgers have jerked him around a bit, as they tend to do. He should be a rotation fixture for the Dodgers for a very long time. To my eye, he has the best stuff of any young starter in baseball. He generates incredible movement on each of his pitches. He’s not striking out the number of hitters you would expect from a pitcher with his arsenal. And like Plesac, his ERA and FIP are wildly off. But when you watch May pitch, it just looks like you’re watching an ace work. If the Dodgers can just leave him in the rotation every fifth day in 2021 (assuming there is a 2021), you’re looking at a guy who can compete for a Cy Young. He’s that good. 

Bullpen (we’ll carry 8):

I’ve written this before, but the bullpen is the hardest part of this team to predict success for. A good reliever probably throws, at most, two elite pitches. Once the League figures out just one of those pitches, he becomes a dramatically less effective pitcher. A few of the guys on this list are currently fringe starting pitchers, but given the way baseball is going, having a reliever capable of getting six outs is increasingly more valuable. 

Brusdar Graterol (Age 22) should be the Dodgers’ closer already, but they’re willing to die by Kenley Jansen’s 88 mph cutter. Graterol came into the Majors as a starter, but was promptly moved to the bullpen when he arrived in Los Angeles (after the Boston Red Sox inexplicably didn’t want him…literally…they could have just had him for free). Graterol’s arsenal consists of a deadly 101 mph fastball that generates great movement. He projects as a high-upside closer. 

James Karinchak (Age 25) came a bit out of nowhere in 2020 after facing just 4 batters in 2019. He entered 2020 outside of Keith Law’s Top 20 Cleveland prospects. Likewise, he found himself outside of MLB Pipeline’s Top 20 list. So why is he here? Well, he struck out 17.7 batters per 9 IP in 2020. He also walked WAAAAY too many batters and there’s little belief in the scouting world that he can fix that. But that kind of strikeout ability doesn’t grow on trees. He has a well-above average fastball and curveball and if he can find some sort of command on that fastball, he moves into the elite reliever category. He’s worth betting on. 

Cal Quantrill (Age 25) is Karinchak’s teammate and fits into the category of “tweener.” Quantril is not quite good enough to go through a Major League lineup twice, nevermind three times, but he’s shown effectiveness as a multi-inning option, producing an excellent, if not probably unrealistic, 200 ERA+ in 2020 and a 2.25 conventional ERA. He won’t overpower anybody with stuff, but he’s missed bats, giving up less than 1 hit per inning. 

Caleb Fergueson (Age 24) is a lefty specialist for the Dodgers who didn’t suffer with the 3 batter minimum rule in 2020, dramatically lowering his walk rate and pitching to a sub-3.00 ERA. 

Adrian Morejón (Age 21) is here for potential. He’s young but has yet to show the kind of pitching skill that saw the Padres spend $11 million to sign him in 2016. To date, he’s given up far too much contact, especially home run contact, surrendering 7 homers in just 19.1 IP in 2020. But he strikes out 11.6 per 9 IP, so the stuff is there. 

Freddy Peralta (Age 24) is a converted starter (converted in that he failed miserably as a starter). Halfway through 2019, the Brewers realized that Peralta was awful in the first inning and moved him to the tweener bullpen role. He was very good in that role this year, pitching to a 2.41 FIP (his higher ERA indicates he was unlucky), while striking out 14.4 per 9, while surrendering just 2 homers all season. He should be a high-leverage bullpen arm for Milwaukee and, to me, is one of the surest things in this bullpen. 

Garrett Crochet (Age 21) has thrown exactly 6 innings in his career and might need Tommy John surgery. Still, he faced 22 batters and allowed 4 to reach base. None scored. Chicago could try him in the rotation in 2021 if healthy, but he’s a fairly limited pitcher in terms of arsenal and with Giolito, Kopech, Dunning, Keuchel, and Cease already there, he’d be much more valuable as a lefty reliever with strikeout ability than a starting pitcher for the Charlotte Knights. 

Genesis Cabrera (Age 24) celebrates a birthday as I write this capsule on October 10. Happy birthday Genesis! You were the last man to make this roster, just edging out Astros reliever Enoli Paredes. Genesis is a real boom or bust pitcher. He pitched to a dangerously high FIP in 2020, despite having only a 2.42 ERA. He’s a strikeout pitcher (like most of the guys here…that’s where upside lies in bullpens) with walk problems. Example: he only allowed 4 hits per 9 IP this season. But he walked 16 batters in 22 total IP. If his bullpen partner Alex Reyes was age-eligible, he would be here. He’s not though. 

Starting Lineup

Catchers: Will Smith (Age 25), Sean Murphy (Age 26…but 25 on the last day of the season)

Will Smith gets the nod here as the everyday catcher. He is, statistically, the second worst pitch framer in baseball. He is, however, an outstanding hitter, perhaps only behind JT Realmuto at this point in terms of overall hit tool. He walked nearly as often as he struck out in 2020, while hitting 8 homers, with a .401 OBP. Just off-the-charts offensive numbers for a young catcher. 

Murphy, by contrast, is an outstanding pitch framer who is in the next tier of hitting catchers below Smith and Realmuto. He should be Oakland’s starting catcher until they trade him in his final year of arbitration, in the way that they do.  

Infielders: Cody Bellinger (Age 25), Ozzie Albies (Age 23), Fernando Tatis Jr. (Age 21), Yoan Moncada (Age 25), Rafael Devers (Age 23), Gleyber Torres (Age 23), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Age 21), Wander Franco (Age 19) 

I may be wrong, but I think Bellinger is the only player in my lifetime who is a true Gold Glove centerfielder that also plays first base regularly. It’s a weird thing the Dodgers do with their roster. As I mentioned with the Dustin May blurb, they jerk a lot of players around, yo-yoing them between pitching roles and moving them all around the diamond. This is due in large part to a bloated Major League roster (kind of the rare case of too much talent being a bad thing). In some cases, it stagnates development (see: Lux, Gavin). And in other cases, like Bellinger, it allows people like me to question whether offensive struggles stem from inconsistency elsewhere in terms of job expectations. Look, Bellinger is coming off of a 2019 MVP campaign, so I’d be nuts to not have him on this team. But he sucked (comparatively) in 2020. He had an OPS under .800 for the first time in his career. His on-base percentage was a pedestrian .333. He was about 15 homers off of his 2019 pace. Basically, he regressed everywhere. I think LA would be very wise to just play him at first base full time. Yes, he’s valuable in CF. But he’s more valuable as a 9 WAR first baseman. 

Bellinger’s backup at first is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. I want to believe in Vladito. I really do. That’s why he’s here. It’s easy to forget that he’s only 21. So far, he’s been a case of the production not matching the hype. And it’s not like he’s not producing. In fact, his 2020 season looked very similar to Bellinger’s. And now that he’s off of 3B full-time, he’s not a total defensive liability for the Blue Jays. Next season (assuming it’s a relatively normal 162 game season) will be an important year for his development. I’m betting on him producing the kind of numbers (.400 OBP, 30 HR) that we expected from him. 

Over at second, we’ve got Ozzie Albies getting the starting nod. Ozzie only played in 29 regular season games this season, so it’s hard to get too in the weeds over his sub-100 OPS+. He hit 24 homers each of the previous two seasons and plays a good enough defensive second base to make him a 5 WAR per season player. Spectacular? No. Consistently reliable and worth being the starting second baseman on a fake team? Certainly. 

Backing Ozzie up is Gleyber Torres who took a very concerning step back in 2020. Coming off of a 38 homer campaign in the full 2019 season, Torres slugged 3 in 2020. 3. If you want to build that out to a full 162 game season it’s roughly not a lot of homers. Previously, Torres was a second baseman in New York, but with the departure of Didi Gregorious, he moved over to SS and cost the Yankees nearly 1 win defensively. The bright spot is that he still walked and got on base at a .356 clip. But the drop in power is something to watch and the clumsy defense at SS is enough of a reason to move him back to 2B full time. 

At third base, I’ve got Moncada and Devers, two players who put up monster numbers in 2019 (a combined 57 home runs with them sporting OPSs of .916 and .915 respectively). Then 2020 happened and like most things in 2020, they weren’t very good. Moncada’s power numbers were way down and frankly, he’s likely never going to be a 30 HR corner infielder. But he plays a fine defensive 3B. Devers, on the other hand, had the power numbers, hitting 11 homers in 57 games, but his defense at 3B stinks and he doesn’t possess nearly the same plate discipline as Moncada. The starting nod goes to the White Sox third baseman. 

When it came to the shortstop position, I didn’t have to do much thinking about the starter. It’s Fernando Tatis Jr. every day until he’s no longer eligible, much like with Mike Trout in previous iterations. Everything that Fernando Tatis Jr. does feels like appointment viewing. In the field he is dazzling. Does he need to improve his throwing to first? Sure. And I have no doubt he will. But if you hit a ball in his general vicinity, the ball will find its way to him. The ball wants to be close to Fernando. And it should. As a 21 year old, his numbers at the plate were jaw-dropping. His homer pace is equivalent to a 46 HR full season, with 30 SB to boot. As a leadoff hitter! If not for a late-season slump, we would be talking about a 21 year old NL MVP. Barring injury, we’re looking at the man who Major League Baseball should be marketing to every planet in the solar system for the next 15 years. He’s charismatic, beautiful, smart, humble, and has the ability to be a generational talent on the field. Of course, MLB will treat Pete Alonso like a superstar instead.

The question of who to back up Fernando was challenging and came down to Bo Bichette, Gavin Lux, and Wander Franco. I went with the 19 year old who has never played a game above Advanced-A ball. Franco is the consensus top prospect in baseball and has been for what feels like two seasons. He walks twice as much as he strikes out. He’s a switch hitter. He’s incredibly sound in the field for a 19 year old playing shortstop. He is, of course, all potential and Bichette has been, when healthy, a very good Major League shortstop. And Lux has performed at a higher tier of the developmental system to astounding production. But until he shows regression (and there’s no reason to believe he will), this should be Franco’s spot. 

Outfielders: Ronald Acuña Jr. (Age 22), Luis Robert (Age 23), Juan Soto (Age 21), Eloy Jimenez (Age 23)

I could write a lot of words about this outfield. I’m starting Robert in center where he’s a defensive superstar, shifting Acuña Jr. over to right and keeping Juan Soto at his natural left field, with Eloy DHing in my lineup on most days. 

Starting with Robert, he was a marvel in centerfield. He uses his elite speed and instincts to track every ball with precision. There isn’t a catch that he can’t make. At the plate, he looked like a rookie. His power is prodigious and when he hits the ball, the ball goes far. He missed the ball a lot in his rookie campaign, striking out 73 times in 227 PA. That said, we’re talking about a rookie who over a full season would be a 30 HR, 25 SB, all-world defensive centerfielder. If he becomes a more disciplined hitter, the American League is in serious trouble. Because…

standing to his right is Eloy Jiménez. In his second Major League season, Eloy’s offensive numbers improved across the board. Improved slash line. Higher home rate. Lower strikeout rate. He’s developing into the perfect cleanup hitter. Whereas Robert has potential to be a George Springer-type leadoff guy, Eloy is never going to be a patient enough hitter and frankly doesn’t need to be. His game is power and he has a lot of it (38 HR pace this season). Defensively, as I noted, he’ll be the DH on this team. 

And then there’s Juan and Ronald. At least in my mind, they’ll always be tethered together. They both took the NL by storm as rookies and have both become superstars before turning 23, with Soto being a valuable contributor to a World Series champion and Acuña potentially on the way to doing the same in 2020. There’s nothing Ronald Acuña cannot do on the baseball field, besides avoid getting hit by Miami Marlins pitchers. If not for Luis Robert’s world-class defense, I’d be more than comfortable leaving Acuña Jr. in CF. He bats leadoff for the Braves but would be an exceptional number 2 hitter, batting behind a lighter hitting leadoff man with great on-base abilities. His power is a little wasted as evidenced by his 2:1 RBI:HR ratio. But that’s a manager problem, not a Ronald problem. 

Juan Soto, at the age of 21, put up the Bondsian slash line of .351/.490/.695 this season. He walked more than he struck out. He led the Majors with a 1.185 OPS. He was 21 years old. I wrote last season that we (society) do a terrible job of appreciating greatness in the moment. Case in point, Soto’s rookie season as a 19 year old where he clocked a .406 OBP.  Soto is on his way to becoming a multi-time MVP and a first-ballot Hall of Fame player and he’s only played 3 years in the Majors. His first three seasons are right there with Frank Robinson, Hank Aaron, Mickey Mantle, Ken Griffey Jr., and Mike Trout. And sure, some stars burn out. Soto doesn’t look like that kind of star. He’s destined for greatness and to speak subjectively, I really appreciate having him on my team (this one and the Washington Nationals).

Batting Order: 

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.- SS
  • Ronald Acuña Jr- RF
  • Juan Soto- LF
  • Eloy Jiménez-DH 
  • Cody Bellinger- 1B
  • Yoan Moncada- 3B
  • Will Smith- C
  • Ozzie Albies- 2B
  • Luis Robert- CF

2020 MLB Expansion Team

Last week, MLB Trade Rumors published a piece that loosely took the concept of an expansion draft to build a brand new MLB team from scratch.

In a true expansion draft, each MLB team would be able to “protect” a certain number of their players (10-15, probably) from being selected. No such restriction was placed here.

I decided to try my hand at it and gave myself the added challenge of building a team with a 2020 payroll below the MLB average of about $133 million. Of course, with a 26-man roster, four teams would remain untouched. For the sake of my exercise they are Baltimore, Detroit, Pittsburgh, and Texas. Only players with accrued MLB service time are eligible. Here is the team I came up with:

Catcher: JT Realmuto (PHI)
First Baseman: Cody Bellinger (LAD)
Second Baseman: Gleyber Torres (NYY)
Shortstop: Trevor Story (COL)
Third Baseman: Rafael Devers (BOS)
Left Fielder: Juan Soto (WAS)
Center Fielder: Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL)
Right Fielder: Mike Trout (LAA)
Designated Hitter: Yordan Alvarez (HOU)

Bench Catcher: Wilson Contreras (CHC)
Bench: Whit Merrifield (KC)
Bench: Ketel Marte (ARI)
Bench UTL: Jeff McNeil (NYM)

SP: Jack Flaherty (STL)
SP: Luis Castillo (CIN)
SP: Lucas Giolito (CHW)
SP: Jose Berrios (MIN)
SP: Shane Bieber (CLE)

6th Starter/Long Relief: Marco Gonzales (SEA)
7th Starter/Long Relief: Sandy Alcantara (MIA)
RP: Josh Hader (MIL)
RP: Kirby Yates (SDP)
RP: Liam Hendriks (OAK)
RP: Ken Giles (TOR)
RP: Nick Anderson (TB)
RP: Tony Watson (SFG)

Total 2020 Payroll: $123,486,566.00

As you can see, I spent the bulk of my money on the bullpen and offense. My ideal batting order would look like this:

Ronald Acuna Jr.
Mike Trout
Cody Bellinger
Juan Soto
Trevor Story
Yordan Alvarez
Rafael Devers
JT Realmuto
Gleyber Torres

I think the bullpen is unparalleled in baseball. To be able to go Hendriks to Yates to Hader is immense. If that fails, you still have Ken Giles and Nick Anderson available (with Tony Watson serving only as a LOOGY), as well as two long relief pitchers from both sides of the rubber (including the very underrated Alcantara).

The starting rotation is young and somewhat unproven, and is most glaringly lacking a lefty. My last pick was between Nick Anderson and Blake Snell from the Rays. I went with the much cheaper Anderson because I don’t view Snell, with his injury history, as that big of an upgrade over my number 5 starter, Shane Bieber.

This was a fun, fairly easy, mostly mindless exercise that took up an hour of quarantime. And I think my team is better than the MLBTR one. What say you? (No one will comment on this.)

2020 NFL Mock Draft…

…or how I thought I’d never do another one of these.

Five years ago, I wrote my “last” NFL Mock Draft. Not long after that, I stopped watching American football. And then I moved to Oklahoma in 2018 and dipped my toes back into the waters of college football. And then the Rams and Chiefs played that Monday Night Football game and the FOMO was too much for me.

Last year I dove headfirst back into oblong-shaped ball sport, much to Amanda’s chagrin. I’ll spare any of you that read this the details of why I stopped watching and why I ultimately returned to watching. All I’ll say is that I watched and read a lot of football content last year and have strongly-held opinions that will be right (Nick Foles being a successful NFL quarterback) and ones that will be wrong (Marcus Mariota being a successful NFL quarterback) regarding this most peculiar of NFL Drafts.

I’m always torn on how to do these things. I could just give in to the groupthink or I could go on my own instincts and see how right I am in five years. Or find some middle ground. This will be more of the latter but a little of the former. I’m going to conduct this as though I was the GM of each team. In other words, this will not be a mock draft you’ll look at on draft night and think “wow he guessed who these teams would pick very well.” My intention is to not mimic every single thing I read from professional prognosticators. That’s boring for me. This is more about looking back in a few years and feeling a smug sense of self-satisfaction. Or shame. Let’s get to it.

Number 1. Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow (QB/LSU)
Joe Burrow is the best college quarterback I’ve seen since Andrew Luck, who was probably the best college quarterback I’ve seen in my lifetime. The Bengals ranked 30th in offensive efficiency last year and it’s abundantly clear that Andy Dalton is not the answer at QB. Cincinnati lacks a lot of talent and doesn’t have another first round pick. Trading back would make a lot of sense if there wasn’t a franchise QB staring at them. But there is. Burrow makes every throw on the field. He can move in the pocket. He can read defenses. He has the size. He tore apart Alabama, Georgia, and Clemson like he was playing Alabama State, Georgia Southern, and Furman.

2. Washington Redskins: Chase Young (EDGE/Ohio State)
The Redskins are in the worst possible position in this draft. They need desperate help at the skill positions. If there was a Calvin Johnson in this draft, this would be the easiest pick. Washington NEEDS to move back in the first round and draft CeeDee Lamb or Jerry Jeudy. They probably won’t though. Instead, they’ll draft Chase Young, an EDGE rusher who fills a need for a live body on the defensive front. I am not necessarily this high on Chase Young. He surely has the measurables you want in an edge rusher. He’s quick and twitchy. And in college he manhandled offensive tackles. He also disappeared in Ohio State’s two biggest games, with 2 total tackles and 0 sacks against Clemson and 0 sacks in the B10 Championship game against a Wisconsin team that he had previously wrecked for 4 sacks earlier in the season. Then again, he missed a month of the season and still finished with 16.5 sacks. He’s more of an enigma to me than to professional scouts who love him and rate him as the top prospect in this draft.

3. Detroit Lions: Isaiah Simmons (LB/S/Clemson)
Isaiah Simmons doesn’t necessarily fill an immediate need, but he’s a Swiss Army knife. He can play at all three levels of the defense. He’s fast enough, strong enough, and smart enough in coverage. I think there are two elite, Hall of Fame-type talents in this draft and I think they’re Burrow and Simmons. There’s no player quite like Simmons on the defensive side of the ball in today’s specialized NFL. I’m so excited to see what he can do at the next level. Matt Patricia’s job is on the line in 2020. Detroit is in a perfect position to have their choice of at least 2 of the draft’s top players at each level of defense. Simmons will allow the “genius” Patricia to use the ultimate defensive tool in a variety of schemes. After spending a decade playing against Brian Urlacher, it will be nice for Detroit to have their own, even more athletic version of the Hall of Famer.

4. New York Giants: Tristen Wirfs (OT/Iowa)
Every mock draft on the face of the Earth has the Giants taking Isaiah Simmons (with the Lions taking Jeff Okudah). And sure, the Giants were bad on both sides of the football in 2019. What was the biggest issue towards the latter half of Eli Manning’s career? A porous offensive line that left the unathletic Manning flopping around, flinging floating passes into opposing linebackers’ hands. The Giants invested in their future last year in drafting Daniel Jones, who appears to be a capable quarterback. But you don’t buy a fancy car and not get good insurance on it. Wirfs is a versatile tackle who can play strong or weak side tackle. He’s a specimen of a man with the athleticism to keep Jones’ pocket clean for the next decade.

5. Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa (QB/Alabama)
The Dolphins have had arguably the most productive offseason of any team in the NFL. They’re in a great position to challenge the Bill for the AFC East championship in 2020, given their additions on defense. What this team has needed since Dan Marino retired is their QB of the future. There’s a world of uncertainty about Tua’s health and given the lack of in-person workouts and medical evaluations, there’s a risk in drafting him here. Miami however has the luxury of possessing two other first round picks. They have other needs on offense especially on the offensive line and at wideout. Tua is a better QB than Justin Herbert. The tape is there. It’s all there. Anybody who is writing that Herbert is a better QB is just bored. Herbert had plenty of time to prove himself against the weak defenses of the Pac 12 and he did, sometimes. Other times, he looked like a future third-string NFL QB. Tua is a star who can throw the ball accurately to every level. He’s worth the risk here.

6. Unwanted Football Team Chargers: Kristian Fulton (CB/LSU)
Alright, here is where things go off the rails a bit. The absolute consensus is that Jeff Okudah is the top CB in this draft. In fact, I’ve seen Fulton, a sure-fire Top 15 pick six months ago, go in the second round of some mock drafts. He is, by my eye, the best press coverage corner in this draft. He ran a 4.46 at the Combine. And he faced elite talent in college. The Chargers were a mess in the secondary in 2019 and they are in need of a franchise QB, but this is way too high to draft Justin Herbert.

7. Carolina Panthers: Jeff Okudah (CB/Ohio State)
Okudah will likely be a top 5 pick on Thursday and I’m not necessarily knocking him by having him go at 7. If Fulton is the best press corner, Okudah is right there behind him. Okudah is not as quick as Fulton and committed a number of pass interference penalties on deep balls in college, something you don’t want in the NFL where the penalty is a more severe spot foul. He’s still built perfectly for the position and would be an immediate upgrade for this porous secondary.

8. Arizona Cardinals: Mekhi Becton (OT/Louisville)
Becton is just an absolute freak of an athlete. He’s 6’7”. He weighs 364 pound. He ran a 5.1 in the 40-yard dash. He also allegedly failed a drug test at the Combine, which if you think that matters, remember Laremy Tunsil. Arizona is set on the left side of the line with D.J. Humphries, but think about the security Becton would provide Kyler Murray by holding down the right side. The Cardinals have done an excellent job upgrading their offense this offseasons, solely by adding DeAndre Hopkins for pennies on the dollar. The defense should be the focus in the rest of this draft, especially if they’re able to get one of Becton or Wirfs.

9. Jacksonville Jaguars: Derrick Brown (DT/Auburn)
This is a team in some kind of disarray as we approach the draft. In the last year they signed Nick Foles to be the franchise QB, lost him to injury, replaced him with Gardner Minshew III, saw GMIII become a fan favorite, had Foles return and struggle, went back to GMIII, sent Foles off to Chicago, franchise tagged Yannick Ngakoue, much to his chagrin, continue to look for trades for Ngakoue, and had franchise running back Leonard Fournette recently talk about how the team needs to improve at the QB position, which now sees Fournette, the fourth overall pick in the Deshaun Watson/Patrick Mahomes draft, on the trading block. Things aren’t great in Jacksonville. The defensive line is in shambles, after they traded Calais Campbell and let Marcell Dareus walk. Brown should be a day-one starter at DT for the Jags. He’s a proven run stuffer with the athleticism to move around the line and a big upgrade over, um, Abry Jones, who is, I assure you, a real person.

10. Cleveland Browns: Andrew Thomas (OT/Georgia)
The Browns have an immediate need at LT and while this is a bit of a reach for Thomas, who is a good but not great tackle prospect, the Browns are in an awkward position at 10 in terms of filling needs with talented players. The jury is still very much out on Baker Mayfield. The Brown need to give him the opportunity to succeed. But the top player on my board who is available here is Javon Kinlaw and with Sheldon Richardson at DT in the 3-4, that’s not a logical fit. The next guy is CeeDee Lamb, but with Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham, the Browns don’t need to add more skill position players. Ideally, a team below them wants to move up to draft Justin Herbert or Jordan Love, allowing Cleveland to move back, get Thomas, and acquire an additional 3rd and 4th round pick. But we don’t do trades here.

11. New York Jets: CeeDee Lamb (WR/Oklahoma)
Wide receiver should be a no-brainer here for the Jets. Unless there are trades and I don’t foresee a lot of those on draft night, given the remote-ness, both Lamb and Jerry Jeudy should be available at 11. For me, the choice is Lamb because he has the size, hands, and strength to be a WR1 right away. He’s not the route-runner that Jeudy is, but Jeudy had a mild case of the dropsys last season and doesn’t have nearly the strength in the open field that Lamb does. The Jets have a lot of holes to fill on defense, but adding a star wideout gives Sam Darnold the best opportunity he’s had to prove he was worthy of being a top 5 draft pick.

12. Transient Raiders: Jerry Jeudy (WR/Alabama)
I fully expect the Raiders to do something weird here, like draft Henry Ruggs III or reach for a QB that Jon Gruden has a real crush on that would have otherwise been available in Round 3. In the logical world that I live in, Jeudy is the smart choice. I talked about him above. He runs crisp, precise routes. He’s not blazingly fast or strong or big. He profiles as a very consistent WR. And remember how the Raiders had that really good WR from Alabama that they inexplicably traded? Now they can replace him.

13. Santa Clara 49ers (from Indy): Josh Jones (OT/Houston)
The 49ers got this pick by trading DeForest Buckner to the Colts and you can consider this a case of the rich getting richer. Buckner is a great player, but getting a top 13 pick for him was some kind of devil magic. San Francisco has done a great job of acquiring talent in the draft under John Lynch. This pick is kind of like a “free play” for them. Jones didn’t face top-end talent in the AAC in college, but he’s a really athletic tackle who can both pass and run block and doesn’t need to start right away, with Joe Staley at LT. In one year, people might scoff at this pick and think “what a waste…he barely played.” And then 3 years down the line, he could be an All-Pro tackle. There’s a tremendous amount of upside here and little risk for a team that’s stacked and coming off of a Super Bowl appearance.

14. Tom Brady Buccaneers: Jedrick Willis Jr. (OT/Alabama)
Who knows what the heck this team thinks it is. The defense is good, not great, in the front 7. The secondary is a nightmare and I could see them going for a CB or Safety here too, but let’s just assume that a team with a 43 year old immobile QB needs protection for him in the most immediate sense. They’re left at the tackle position with the biggest question mark when it comes to pass blocking, in Willis. They’d certainly love for Thomas or Becton to fall here. This is the nightmare scenario for Tampa Bay. If the draft plays out similar to this and Thomas and Becton aren’t here, I’d imagine Tampa trying to move back, drafting in the secondary, and picking up a tackle in Round 2, where there should be some decent options available, like Boise State’s Ezra Cleveland. In a world without trades, they take their chances on the talented, physically impressive, and athletic Willis and hope that his pass blocking has improved, somehow, during a time when he would have received no in-person coaching. Good luck Tom!

15. Denver Broncos: Justin Jefferson (WR/LSU)
We are assuming that John Elway is truthful in his support for Drew Lock. Given how the OT situation has played out above (i.e. There’s now no one left), Denver needs to give Lock a big weapon in Jefferson, who is coming off of an insane 111 reception/18 TD season at LSU. He’s the absolute perfect slot receiver for the modern NFL, with great quickness and some size and really steady hands. And he doesn’t lack in the route-running department either. He should be a really high-end consistent pass-catcher for a long time in the NFL, assuming that Drew Lock can put the ball in his vicinity. Which, I guess we’ll see.

16. Atlanta Falcons: Jaylon Johnson (CB/Utah)
Defensive secondary is an absolute no-brainer for the Falcons, who were dreadful against the pass in 2019. I’m much higher on Johnson than any professional evaluations. He stood up well in the pass-heavy Pac12. He’s a very aggressive cover corner, with great feet. Truly, the Falcons could draft any of Johnson, CJ Henderson, AJ Terrell, or Trevon Diggs here and it would be a huge upgrade over whatever it is they got last year.

17. Dallas Cowboys: CJ Henderson (CB/Florida)
Dallas lost Byron Jones in free agency, so Henderson is a great need-fit. Henderson has the prototypical body of an NFL corner. He’s really quick and excellent in 1-1 coverage. The biggest question mark, and why I have him ranked below Jaylon Johnson, is he was not good last year. Even accounting for SEC teams avoiding his side of the field, Henderson had 0 INTs and just 32 tackles. Still, the talent is absolutely there.

18. Miami Dolphins (from Pittsburgh): Javon Kinlaw (DT/South Carolina)
The Dolphins have 3 first round picks and are sitting in a spot where an elite DT has fallen primarily because the teams above them have more immediate needs. Kinlaw is not the 18th best player in this draft. I have him ranked in my top 10. He’s a monster DT who consistently gets to the QB. He’ll be a huge upgrade on Day 1 over Davon Godchaux and leaves Miami with still another first round pick to improve on the offensive side of the ball.

19. Transient Raiders (from Chicago): Grant Delpit (S/LSU)
The Raiders were the worst defensive team in the NFL in 2019, in terms of efficiency, and have done little in the offseason to improve on that side of the ball. Delpit has seen his draft stock plummet after a nagging ankle injury saw him miss time and be more ineffective in the latter half of last season. Before the injury, he was a consensus Top 10 pick. He’s a big safety at 6’3” who is more of a hitter than a tackler. He’s also a ball-hawk. There’s certainly some Tyrann Mathieu in his game, lazy LSU-comp aside. The Raiders have the draft capital, with three more picks in the top 100 to take a gamble on a hugely talented player like Delpit.

20. Jacksonville Jaguars (from LA Rams): AJ Terrell (CB/Clemson)
The Jaguars use their second pick to continue to shore up their porous defense. Terrell is a risky prospect at CB. His measurables are off the charts. He’s big, he’s very fast, and he’s a true man-to-man corner. He also vanished at times for Clemson, most problematically in the National Championship against LSU where he was absolutely dominated by Ja’Marr Chase. Still, this is a team that needs help at corner and Terrell has all of the tools to be a very good one in the NFL.

21. Philadelphia Eagles: Henry Ruggs III (WR/Alabama)
If the Eagles do not draft a wide receiver in the first round, their entire front office should be fired on the spot. Philadelphia invested heavily in Carson Wentz and are giving him the ghosts of Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson to throw to. Ruggs is not an outside receiver. He’s generously listed at 5’11”. He is, though, this year’s Hollywood Brown. He is electric in the open field and has great hands. He has all the makings of a YAC machine at the next level, if he can survive against man coverage in the slot, given his 188 LB frame.

22. Minnesota Vikings (from Buffalo): Trevon Diggs (CB/Alabama)
Given the earlier run on corners, Minnesota would be wise to use this first pick to grab the only remaining first round talent at the position. The Vikings struggled in the secondary last year and lost Xavier Rhodes and Trae Wayans in free agency. And honestly, isn’t the symmetry of them getting this pick for Stefon Diggs and then drafting his brother too good? I think so. Of note, I think this is going to be the hottest trade target of the first round, especially if Justin Herbert and Jordan Love are still available ahead of New England’s selection. I could see a team like Pittsburgh moving in to the first round to draft the heir apparent to Ben Roethlisberger before Bill Belichick can have his choice.

23. New England Patriots: Xavier McKinney (S/Alabama)
…and yet, I cannot see Belichick drafting Justin Herbert or Jordan Love in the first round. This is his chance to show that all of that Patriots’ success was his and not Tom Brady’s. And sitting right there for him is McKinney, a versatile safety who tackles well and can get to the QB on the blitz. He would be an immense upgrade over the aging Patrick Chung at SS and Belichick is known to have a fondness for Nick Saban-coached defensive players.

24. New Orleans Saints: Kenneth Murray (LB/Oklahoma)
The Saints are the total package. There are very few holes at the top of their depth chart. Cornerback would be an area to improve but given what’s available here, why reach when you can build defensive depth with a tackling stud like Murray, who racked up over 100 tackles for Oklahoma in 2019? Murray is a great athlete who can move from sideline to sideline. There’s some Luke Keuchly in him. He would be an anchor at ILB for the Saints.

25. Minnesota Vikings: Denzel Mims (WR/Baylor)
Mims is blessed with every attribute you’d want in a prototypical receiver. He’s big. He’s strong. He’s fast. His combine performance was excellent, as was his Senior Bowl week. He is not a very good route runner, however, but we’re at a point with receivers where, if you’re a team like Minnesota (with two first round picks) you’ve got to give a nod to upside, which is where Mims outshines the three or four other receivers who could end this first round.

26. Miami Dolphins (from Houston): Laviska Shenault Jr. (WR/Colorado)
Miami has secured their QB position and DT position for years to come in the first round, after doing a great job in free agency. Now they need the WR for Tua to throw to. Miami already has size with DeVante Parker and Preston Williams at wideout. Shenault gives them a pass-catcher who can line up at any receiver position and win balls in traffic. I’m biased because these are my picks, but I think in this scenario, Miami is set up for years of success under Brian Flores.

27. Seattle Seahawks: K’Lavon Chaisson (EDGE/LSU)
A huge value grab at a position of need for the Seahawks, who struggled to get to the opposing QB last year. Chaisson’s knocks include an ACL tear that cost him the 2018 season and only 6.5 sacks in 2019. The attributes are all there, but he’s a bit on the raw side. That said, Seattle has two second round picks and can more than afford to draft a high upside player at a position of need.

28. Baltimore Ravens: A.J. Epenesa (EDGE/Iowa)
The Ravens’ biggest area of need is interior offensive lineman. This is not the kind of draft with a generational guard talent anywhere in sight of the first round, so we move over to the defensive side of the ball, where the Ravens struggled to stop the run, most famously against the Tennessee Derrick Henrys in the AFC Divisional Round. They’ve already brought in Calais Campbell to lock down one side of their base 3-4. Epenesa, who is solid in the run and flexible enough to play in a 3-4 or 4-3 scheme, should help improve this particular area of weakness. His stock has dropped after a poor showing at the Combine, but the tools are all there for the powerful 6’5” rusher.

29. Tennessee Titans: Yetur Gross-Matos (EDGE/Penn State)
The Titans made the most inexplicably stupid offseason move by signing Ryan Tannehill to a lucrative contract. Their offense is predicated on giving the ball to Derrick Henry 30 times a game and having a QB who won’t turn the ball over. So they spent $118 million to lock up a guy nobody wanted a year ago, whose playoff numbers were clears throat 36-60, 369 yards in 3 games. Anyway, good luck to them. Gross-Matos is basically A.J. Epenesa and nobody can convince me that they’re not the same person.

30. Green Bay Packers: Tee Higgins (WR/Clemson)
The Packers are a long way from their Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Jermichael Finley days and Aaron Rodgers isn’t getting any younger (or better). Tee Higgins gives Rodgers the kind of monster outside receiver he’s never really had in Green Bay. Higgins is not a burner by any stretch, but he would become Rodgers’ top red zone target on Day 1.

31. Santa Clara 49ers: Brandon Aiyuk (WR/Arizona State)
The 49ers stay on the offensive side of the ball and look for a replacement for Emmanuel Sanders. Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel would pose an enormous speed threat to every opposing defense, with Aiyuk probably being the more traditional wideout, albeit one who could also star as a punt returner for the Niners. Combine the speed of Aiyuk and Samuel with the YAC of George Kittle and the 49ers suddenly have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFC.

32. Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Queen (ILB/LSU)
To say that the Chiefs don’t have a lot of needs would be an understatement, which is why I have them taking the top rated defensive player left. Queen will be an undersized middle linebacker in the NFL, but is a really smart player with lightning quick response times, especially defending the screen game.

Okay, so, where are the Quarterbacks?

Look, I’m not high on Justin Herbert or Jordan Love. I don’t think either are worth a first round pick. Herbert has the size. And he is, by all accounts, very smart. There were games this season where I watched the best QB in the country and other times where I saw an absolute draft bust. Look at it this way: Coming into the season, he was rated as the second best QB prospect in the draft. During the season, his stock tumbled. Once the season ended, everyone fell in love with him again, because he’s 6’6” and isn’t coming off of a hip injury. That he’s spoken about in the same breath as Tua is baffling to me. He’s nowhere near the passer that Tua is. The accuracy is just not there on a consistent basis. The arm strength is there and he can scramble, but his medium game is not first-round level. I think he can be an NFL QB because that bar is not terribly high. But this is a four-year starter at the Division I level. We’ve seen his development and it kind of just stalled out. I think he’s a smart second round pick or, as I mentioned earlier, a good pick late in the first for a team that will need to replace a veteran (a la Pittsburgh, where I think he will end up) soon.

Jordan Love, well, I just don’t get it at all. Again, great arm. Even more athletic than Herbert. Great size. He also threw 17 interceptions in the Mountain West in 2019 and completed just 62% of his passes. Herbert completed 68% and accuracy is the primary concern with him. I’ve seen the incomprehensibly lazy Patrick Mahomes comp for Jordan Love and I’m embarrassed for both Love and Mahomes. Do I think Jordan Love can play in the NFL? Certainly. Do I think I’d feel comfortable using a first round pick (especially in a draft that I think is very deep on talent) on him? Absolutely not.

There are a few teams (outside of Cincinnati and Miami who I think will definitely take Burrow and Tua) that still need a starting QB. The Chargers can get by for a season with Tyrod Taylor. The Redskins have to give Dwayne Haskins Jr. another year, at least. The Raiders aren’t going to move into Las Vegas with a rookie QB at the helm. That leaves Denver and New England. I don’t really believe that the Broncos believe that Drew Lock is their QB of the future. But I also don’t believe that Herbert or Love is better right now than Lock. Which leaves us with the Patriots. Do I think they would be insane to enter the 2020 season with Jarrett Stidham as their starting QB? Absolutely, unless the goal is to have him embarrass himself, finish 3-13, secure the first pick, and draft Trevor Lawrence. But if we learned anything from the Dolphins’ “Tank for Tua” plan (which inexplicably might still work), it’s that things change. No NFL team should be tanking for any one QB. Trevor Lawrence is one unfortunate injury away from leaving Justin Fields as 2021’s top prospect. Ultimately, I think New England brings Jameis Winston aboard for a one year experiment, sees what they’ve got in Stidham in those games where Winston throws 4 INTs and gets benched, and evaluates the QB position next offseason after Bill Belichick retires.

That’s my long way of saying, I don’t think Herbert or Love should be drafted in the first round. (But ultimately, I think both do).

The one QB who I would target later on in the draft is Washington State’s Anthony Gordon, who put up (unsurprisingly) great numbers in Mike Leach’s lunatic offense. He’s the kind of safe-bet QB that a team like Tennessee should have targeted instead of burning cap money on Tannehill. Gordon can make every short and intermediate throw with precision accuracy. He would be an excellent 3rd or 4th round pick who I truly think could start on Day 1 in the NFL in an offense that isn’t predicated on deep throws.

And if I really wanted to torture you, this would be a long section about how much I love Ashtyn Davis, a safety out of Cal-Berkeley, who will likely be a second round pick. But this is a good enough place to end.

100 Favorite Albums of the Decade

I’ve never felt comfortable writing about music. Sports? Of course. Struggles with anxiety? Yup. Music? TERROR.

This likely stems from my insecurity when it comes to the music I like, combined with my inability to talk or write about music in the technical sense. I’ll use words here like “produced” and truth-be-told, I have no idea what I’m actually talking about.

The music that I like is very white and for most of my life trended very, very male. And you’ll see a lot of that here, if for some reason you’ve decided to tackle this very long post, which I doubt many, if any, of you will.

These albums are ranked solely on their importance to me. This is important to stress. I am not ranking the 100 greatest pieces of art in the 2010s. I am ranking albums based on how much I, the writer of this post, enjoyed and continue to enjoy, these albums.

The difference between 100 and, say, 50, isn’t huge. The albums at the top of this list are ones that I connected with on a grand scale. The ones closer to the top of the post, well, I’ll explain each of them, but suffice to say, they each had their moment. Some of those moments were just shorter.

There are great or critically-acclaimed albums from this decade that I simply did not connect with. I’ve tried to get better at just accepting that as being what it is, but I still feel like I should have liked “Lemonade” or one of FKA Twigs’ albums more. But I didn’t. Again, I am not a music expert or an authority. I’m fully aware of the lack of diversity in this list.

The only rule here is that I limited each credited artist or band to 3 albums. As I’ll explain, there is one artist who appears here five times, as a member of a band, as a producer, and as a solo artist.

So let’s get it started on a weird one or two, shall we?

100. Taking Back Sunday “Tidal Wave”

At the start of the decade, if you had told me that this list would start with a Taking Back Sunday album, I would have institutionalized myself. I strive for personal growth in all that I do. And yet, here’s a band from my time in high school, creeping onto a list I’m writing as a 35 year old. It’s here largely because it’s a fun album that felt like growth from a band that had previously been fairly retrograde in its treatment of its female antagonists. To be clear, there are clunkers here and it’s not a “good” album, but it felt like a nice link back to my previous decade.

99. Waka Flocka Flame “Flockaveli”

From the moment this album begins (with cartoon gun noises that continue throughout), you can tell you’re listening to the “Abbey Road” of the 2010s. Kidding aside, this was, for a good chunk of 2010, my go-to “hype up” album. I could be asleep and if you played “Karma” I would jump out of bed and sprint 5 miles through brick walls. This is hip-hop very much of a certain era. The production is miles beyond the mumble-core, Soundcloud rap of the current moment, but the lyrical content is, um, not exactly on a level with Kendrick and other contemporaries.

98. Bright Eyes “The People’s Key”

This will probably remain the final Bright Eyes album. Released in 2011 it was such a departure from every previous Bright Eyes album, filled with electric guitars. In fact, if you had said this was a Desaparecidos album and not a Bright Eyes one, I wouldn’t have batted an eyelash. This is not the best Bright Eyes album, but for as long as Conor Oberst continues to make music, I will continue to listen to it and hold it in regard.

97. Foster The People “Torches

History will not be kind to a band like Foster the People. They will be the “Pumped Up Kicks” band forever and ever. For those who looked beyond that one song, you found a really interesting indie/dance-pop-rock piece of music. This is one of those albums that I’m less proud of myself for listening to. There’s nothing cool about a Foster the People album, but alas, I can’t deny that I enjoyed this one.

96. Cut Copy “Zonoscope”

This is from my electronic phase, which I never actually had. But this was probably the first guitar-less non-hip hop album that ever truly pulled me in. It opens with “Need You Now,” a beautiful, pulsing 6 minute love song that is all build throughout. Elsewhere, you’ll get a very 80’s new wave feel from “Blink and You’ll Miss a Revolution.”

95. Death Cab for Cutie “Codes and Keys”

Death Cab’s “Transatlanticism” is my favorite album of all time. No other piece of music has ever captured how I felt at a time in my life like that album and I often find myself swept back to that era of my life when I play it. “Codes and Keys” is not that album, but it is the end of an era, so to speak, for Death Cab for Cutie. This is the last album with Chris Walla fully on board and really, the last Death Cab album I found myself emotionally invested in. Also, I once tried to introduce Chris Walla to Madeline Albright. My life used to be so weird.

94. Adult Jazz “Gist Is”

This is surely the weirdest album on this list (I say surely because I’m looking at a list I made and writing these capsules in order, so maybe I’m forgetting something). Amanda once walked into a room where this was playing and said, “What is this?” It’s electronic, the vocals are at times buried beneath layers of drum, and the most lovely song on the album is called “Pigeon Skulls.”

93. Carter Tanton “Jettison The Valley

Tanton is a member of Lower Dens, but this solo effort, with contributions from Sharon Van Etten and Marissa Nadler, is his only appearance on this list either solo or in a band. This is simply a lovely album and a really great “side project.”

92. Telekinesis “12 Desperate Straight Lines”

A fun indie rock album. Isn’t that enough? “Country Lane” is my favorite track.

91. Destroyer “Ken”

Dan Bejar (of New Pornographers fame) is a wonderful weirdo who makes weird music under this moniker. He’ll make another appearance much higher on this list, but for now, here’s “Ken,” an electro-pop album from one of the most creative lyricists of this era. It’s not a perfect Destroyer album (again, be patient, we’ll get there), but it’s a nice breezy listen.

90. Arcade Fire “Everything Now”

Oh my! Look! It’s the Arcade Fire album that everybody is supposed to hate! And you know what, sure, it’s not “Funeral.” Nobody is making another “Funeral,” and that’s perfectly okay. This album is a showcase of the evolution of Arcade Fire. I think it’s a better record than its predecessor (“Reflektor,” which would have been number 102 on this list). I know that we’re all supposed to hate when bands who make classic albums don’t retire, but I’m here to tell you that it’s okay to listen to the new stuff. Oh, and we’ll be talking about Arcade Fire again, but you’ll have to wait a long while for that.

89. Allison Crutchfield “Tourist in This Town”

This is Crutchfield’s first (and to date, only) solo LP and it’s a solid effort with a handful of truly excellent pop-tinged rock songs that dominated my early 2017. I also saw her recently in Silver Lake, but I didn’t bother her, even though I’m sure she’d be stoked to make this list.

88. Peter, Bjorn, and John “Gimme Some”

These are the guys who made that whistling song that you remember from last decade. That album was really good and I’m here to report that they continue to make music. I like some of it, like this album from 2011. The thing I’ve always really liked about PBJ is their vocal harmonies. And, much like the whistling song that you remember, they’re damn good at writing hooky earworms.

87. Into It. Over It. “Intersections”

This was the first time that music critics told me I was cool for liking emo music. Previously, I was very uncool. But now…

86. Lykke Li “Wounded Rhymes”

Two Swedish artists in the last three selections. Sweden is taking over. Lykke Li makes very, very sad music, often over pulsing drums. Her voice is beautiful, I think most so on this album. One of the songs is called “Sadness is a Blessing.” She’s upfront with what you’re getting.

85. Adult Mom “Soft Spots”

Such a lovely album, albeit a very short one. The music is jangly, evoking a 1990s indie rock sound. The lyrics often tell highly specific, first-person stories, like on the gorgeous “J Station.” I happened to hear that song on an indie radio station somewhere in North Carolina, further validating my belief that it’s a good idea to drive long distances to see minor league baseball.

84. Whitney “Light Upon the Lake”

Plucked straight out of 1965, this is a truly beautiful album, full of waltzy guitar lines. The most striking thing to me the first time I listened to this album was how the vocals were placed out in front of the guitars and drums and horns, which felt so innovative for an album that was actually released in 2016.

83. The Hotelier “Goodness”

The cover of this album is a group of elderly naked people standing in a meadow. There are three comically silly interludes that were clearly not meant to be silly. In between all of that though are such perfectly produced, emotional (“emo” for short) songs about life and death, two of my favorite subjects. If not for the interludes, I’d probably be writing this much, much later in the process. “Sun” is my favorite song on the album. Listen to that if you want an idea of what to expect.

82. Kendrick Lamar “To Pimp a Butterfly”

I feel like I’m committing some kind of act of sacrilege putting a Kendrick Lamar album this low. But here’s the thing about “To Pimp a Butterfly:” it’s a great album, so perfectly of the moment that it was released, but it’s also very, very long to the point of feeling bloated at times. If you’re offended, “DAMN” is much higher.

81. The Men “Open Your Heart”

You like blues rock? Cool. Punk? Gotcha. Hardcore? Yup. Country? Kind of (there is a song called “Country Song”). My reaction to my first listen to this album was something along the lines of “What the hell did I just listen to?” You can’t really pin down The Men, on any album. This is their best according to me. There’s beauty here and ugliness and when it’s over, you’ll likely have the same reaction I did 7 years ago.

80. The National “I Am Easy To Find”

I had a hard time trying to decide what to do with albums from 2019. I didn’t want to over-rank any of them, but I also didn’t want to under-rank. It’s hard comparing the importance of something a few months old versus something that you’ve had in your life for 8 or 9 years. Anyway, here’s the first album from 2019. This feels like an under-rank, in the pre-emptive sense. Nearly every track on this album features Matt Berninger accompanied by a different female vocalist, making for the most unique National album to date. The accompanying short film is gut-wrenching, as one would expect a short film set to The National’s music to be. I have a feeling that if I were to re-rank these albums in five years, this album would be much higher than 80.

79. Generationals “Heza”

Generationals released four albums this decade and truth be told, each had their moment for me. In fact, I may have overplayed each Generationals album to some extent. So none of them had a ton of lasting power, save for “Heza.” This is Generationals at their “toe-tappiest” and, for me, few artists I listened to throughout this decade wrote more infectious songs.

78. Delta Spirit “History From Below”

Come, gather round and listen to an album that begins with a song called “9/11.” Delta Spirit would go on to release a handful of other albums this decade, but only this one left a lasting impact on me. And there’s a certain warmth I feel when I hear “Golden State,” especially now as a resident of that place.

77. Tennis “Cape Dory”

The story behind this album is a little hokey (married couple sails and writes an album). There’s also a strong parallel for me between Tennis and Delta Spirit. Each made a number of albums during this decade, but only had one that had an impact on my listening. This is a really pretty album with a low-fi, 1960s Laurel Canyon vibe. It had been a few years since I went back and re-listened to this (until I undertook this project) and I’m glad I got to come back to it.

76. Haim “Something to Tell You”

The second album from the sisters Haim was bigger sounding, though for me, not necessarily better. That said, you’d be hard pressed to find a band more skilled at making incredibly catchy, harmony-filled music than Haim.

75. Pinegrove “Cardinal”

It’s emo! But it’s a little country!

74. The New Pornographers “Together”

This is the New Pornographers at their best this decade. AC Newman, Neko Case, and Dan Bejar each get their moments to shine and each do.

73. Into It. Over It. “Standards”

I made the comment on the other Into It. Over It. album on this list that emo became cool again this decade. Amanda very astutely said recently it’s because the people who were told it wasn’t cool 15 years ago are now the tastemakers. I think she’s right. Anyway, this is a really lovely record. Evan Thomas Weiss (the man behind the clunky moniker) knows his way around hooks and bouncy melodies.

72. Houndmouth “Little Neon Limelight”
71. Lord Huron “Strange Trails”

For whatever reason, in 2015, I got really into pop rock and thus, these two bands landed at #3 and #2 on my year-end album list. I couldn’t tell you which one was which. It doesn’t matter. Much like Foster the People, I’m a little ashamed that each of these records are on here, but, again, I cannot deny that they more than had their moments. The Lord Huron record is very big and melodramatic, but also undeniably well-produced and full of soaring choruses . Houndmouth had a song in a car commercial that was a very good pop song.

70. Langhorne Slim “The Way We Move”

Speaking of car commercials, you’ve heard plenty of Langhorne Slim songs if you’ve ever watched TV. He’s at his best when he’s playing a good old-fashioned stomper and there are plenty of those on “The Way We Move.” And I’ll never not love an album that ends with a person screaming “And I’m not dead anymore.”

69. Waxahatchee “Cerulean Salt”

Katie Crutchfield will make two more appearances on this list. I think she’s one of the best songwriters in music today.

68. Chvrches “Every Open Eye”

There was no more vexing band in the 2010s for me than Chvrches. They should have been my favorite band of the decade. Scottish band, fronted by a dynamic woman making expertly produced, big, electronic-leaning rock songs. And yet, no Chvrches album has ever truly been perfect. This feels unfair (to criticize a band for making two appearances on this dumb list), but I’ve always wanted more from Chvrches records. When you want one more big, anthemic song, Lauren Mayberry hands the microphone off to the guy who warbles his way through some dreadful song. It’s a testament to her strength as the leader of the band and the way that she commands the vocals that their records are as good as they are. And they are definitely good, despite my negativity.

67. Bon Iver “Bon Iver”

There was a point at which, probably after the first listen, I assumed this would be my album of the decade. It did not, alas, have that kind of staying power. This is Justin Vernon’s most accessible record as Bon Iver (Big Red Machine, his side project with The Nationals’ Aaron Dessner, is slightly more accessible and also missed the cut by a hair). This album wraps itself around the listener and takes them to another place, which seems like maybe too on the nose of a statement to make about an album whose song titles are almost all physical places. Regardless, this is my favorite Justin Vernon record.

66. The War on Drugs “A Deeper Understanding

A lot of bands in the 2010s tried to do Bruce Springsteen, but nobody did it as well as The War on Drugs. This is the weakest album of their catalog, for me, which I think says a lot about how highly I hold this band.

65. Best Coast “Fade Away”

Only one EP made this list of my 100 favorite albums and it’s this one. Bethany Cosentino’s lyrics often bring a slight cringe to my face with predictable rhyming patterns dotting every song. “It was bad it made me sad,” stuff. Those moments are few and far between here. It’s Cosentino’s best written collection of songs by quite the distance.

64. Car Seat Headrest “Twin Fantasy”

This is a very well done re-imagining of a previous Car Seat Headrest release. Will Toledo’s songs are raw and direct. There’s nary a metaphor or illusion in his songs. They play like first person re-tellings of very specific moments and conversations from his life. Listening to a Car Seat Headrest album is like listening to a person’s therapy sessions. But with guitars.

63. Saintseneca “Such Things”

One of my favorite bands to come out of this decade. And one of the best live performers I saw during it. There’s another entry from them to come.

62. Jenny Lewis “The Voyager”

“The Voyager” is a sad album that sounds like a happy album if you’re not thinking too hard. It was also produced by human scumbag Ryan Adams, but lets not hold that against Jenny Lewis. Truth be told, some of these capsules are easy to write and others aren’t and this is the hardest one yet. I can’t quite pin down what it is that I like about this album, as I’m honestly not much of a Lewis fan. Maybe I already summed it up with that first sentence…

61. Yo La Tengo “Fade”

Maybe there’s a song from this decade that I love more than “OHM.” Maybe. I talked a bit ago about Bon Iver’s most approachable album. For me, this is Yo La Tengo’s most approachable. It sounds effortless and ethereal. And, man, that opener gets me every single time.

60. Charly Bliss “Young Enough”

Our second appearance of a 2019 album. Put me in the small camp of people who did not love their debut album. Put me in whatever size camp of people who absolutely love “Young Enough.” It took a few listens for me to buy into the layers of whatever (see, technical wizard I am) are all over Eva Hendricks’ voice. The album is full of dark lyrics (opener “Blown to Bits” is about a nuclear holocaust) over pitch-perfect pop melodies. It’s a wonderful sophomore album that portends the potential for the next album to make it even higher on my Albums of the 2020s list.

59. Cults “Cults”

Cults were destined to be my favorite band after this, their debut album release. Alas, as with Chvrches, that did not happen. Later releases fell kind of flat. But this debut was one of the best, most exciting surprises of the decade for me. The album cover, featuring both band members mid-rock out, is me every time I hear “Oh My God.”

58. Real Estate “Days”

Real Estate make really mellow, laid back, approachable indie rock. When I want to turn the lights out, light a candle, and listen to some music alone, Real Estate is my usual go-to. The music is airy. They lyrics are reflective and sad. If you’re noticing a pattern in my listening, good on you. Another Real Estate album will come later.

57. John K. Samson “Winter Wheat”

Samson is a wonderful storyteller with a very unique voice. These are slow-paced, narrative-driven songs. “17th Street Treatment Center” is the most honest depiction of receiving drug or alcohol treatment that I could possibly imagine. “Most of us are probably not getting better, but not getting better together” is the saddest lyric of celebration that I can think of from this decade.

56. The War on Drugs “Lost In The Dream”

Coming off of “Slave Ambient” (read more about it much, much later in this list), this sounded like a different band. The lyrical approach was similar, but from the opening of the album, if you were at all familiar with their previous approach, you could tell this was going to be the breakout album. It’s bigger. It’s longer. And it’s louder. This is not always with great results. This is, after all, an hour long, 10 track album. This is my lowest ranked “Album of the Year” from this decade. There’s no denying that, musically, this had all the potential to be a top five album, but I had trouble connecting to it long-term.

55. Springtime Carnivore “Springtime Carnivore”

Gosh, I love Greta Morgan’s voice. Her work with Gold Motel didn’t necessarily highlight it, but in this, her solo project, her vocal abilities really shine through. She writes and sings such beautiful sad songs. The sad and spare vocal/keyboard combo on “Find A New Game” is a decade musical highlight for me.

54. Waxahatchee “Ivy Tripp”

There’s measurable growth on this album from the relatively spare “Cerulean Salt.” The guitars are louder and more distorted, but the star of the show is Katie Crutchfield’s songwriting. I’ll have one other opportunity to praise that on this list.

53. Blink 182 “Neighborhoods”

Critics hated it. The band hated it and broke up (again) because of it. I found and find myself on an island when it comes to this album, because I love it. The story goes: Blink breaks up, Travis Barker nearly dies, they reunite for a tour and decide to make an album, but they are never in the studio as a threesome to record it, and nobody enjoyed the process. Except for me. There’s a lot of Angeles and Airwaves influence on this album and it’s very much a “Tom” record. These are Blink 182’s fullest, richest songs. There’s nostalgia and heartbreak, and love, and no songs about having sex with dogs or grandmas. Nothing that Blink 182 has released without Tom (and I’m including Mark and Travis’ +44 side project) carries as much heft as this album. Also, Travis Barker is the best drummer in the last 30+ years of popular music. Have I lost you yet?

52. The World Is A Beautiful Place And I Am No Longer Afraid To Die “Harmlessness”

As the name probably gives away, this is an emo band that writes very serious songs. Or maybe, Very Serious Songs. Either way, this is probably the heaviest album you’ll find on this list, in terms of music, which really, just says that I don’t listen to a lot of “heavy” music. Rarely do the songs follow a normal verse, chorus, verse, chorus, chorus, bridge, chorus structure. They just happen. The whole thing feels very organic, even for a band with such a preposterously long and dramatic name.

51. The Wonder Years “Suburbia I’ve Given You All and Now I’m Nothing”

At some point in the year 2012 or early 2013, I discovered that there was a growing scene of new emo and pop-punk bands that were making the genres “cool.” This was my first dive into that scene (because, I mean, that album title, obviously) and holy shit what a dive it was. This was my gateway drug. “Came Out Swinging” is the natural progression from the music I was listening to and flailing my body around to 10 years earlier, but the lyrics were smarter and didn’t treat female antagonists as subhuman. These are songs about escaping from something. In that way, it’s almost closer to Springsteen than Silverstein.

50. Lorde “Pure Heroine”

I was on my solo cross country road trip in 2013 the first time I listened to Lorde. I hated it. Months later, I gave it a second chance and I saw the error of my ways. Lorde is a marvel. She was the only teenager making music that was truly worth listening to no matter your age. Her songs are timeless. Yes, she’s writing from the perspective of a teenager, but we’ve all been there. We’ve all wanted to fit in. We’ve all resigned ourselves to the fact that we aren’t going to be rich and famous. We’ve all been young and in love. She captures that age better than any artist I’ve ever heard. This is definitely not her only entry here.

49. Rostam “Half-Light”

At the end of the day, there are probably no more than 3 people beyond Rostam Batmanglij whose music has had more of an effect on me in my adult life. His work with Vampire Weekend drove the success of the band on their first three albums. His work with Hamilton Leithauser will come up later. And then there’s his production with everyone from Tokyo Police Club to Haim to Cass McCombs to Charli XCX. Few artist have been more prolific in the background than Rostam was this decade. This album is his only solo effort to date and it sounds very much like what you’d want in a Rostam album. His vocals are actually quite impressive and his lyrics of bittersweet longing are touching. The choir layered beneath his vocals on “EOS” is a favorite of mine.

48. Frank Ocean “Blonde”

Genres don’t matter with Frank Ocean. He’s not a traditional R&B singer. He’s definitely not exclusively a rapper. Frankly, he’s probably an indie singer-songwriter, but that feels far too dismissive of his work. “Blonde” is a truly incredible album. His ballads (“White Ferrari” comes to mind) are some of the best of that genre that I heard this decade. Each Frank album is a moving experience.

47. The Districts “Popular Manipulations”

For most people, this is/was probably a fairly pedestrian indie rock album. I am (regrettably perhaps) not most people. “If Before I Wake” is on my top 10 list of favorite songs from this decade, to say nothing of the rest of the album. The lyrics are a little obtuse at times, but the hooks are there.

46. Japandroids “Celebration Rock”

Few records from this decade get off on a more invigorating note(s) than this album with “The Nights of Wine and Roses” (sidenote: I love when songs have long, seemingly random titles that are actually included in the lyrics). This, Japandroids’ second album, bridges a sort of gap between the loud, messiness of “Post-Nothing” and the refined sound of “Near to the Wild Heart of Life.” There’s still lots of guitar and lots of anthems for the drunk, hopeless, and emotionally vulnerable.

45. Chvrches “The Bones Of What You Believe”

I won’t be mean to the boring guy in Chrvches again. I’m sure he’s a very nice person. The synths are louder and more frenetic here than on “Every Open Eye.” And the lyrics are more pointed and direct. In all, it’s just a better record and one that I connected with more.

44. Slaughter Beach, Dog “Birdie”

From the ashes of Modern Baseball came Slaughter Beach, Dog. Album opener “Phoenix” is a beautiful narrative about longing. The album is full of down-on-their luck characters, but not in the Bruce Springsteen factory worker way. Everyone is kind of a loser and frontman Jake Ewald does a great job making you feel invested in those losers.

43. The Front Bottoms “Going Grey”

The Front Bottoms are the standard-bearers of the modern folk-punk movement. “Going Grey,” their most recent album, though, adds an electronic element and just an albeit bigger sound to their thing. And I really appreciate that thing.

42. The Walkmen “Heaven”

This is the final album from a band that started out making post-punk in the style of Interpol. While that band has continued making the same album over and over again, The Walkmen refined their sound over a decade and ended with this clean cut piece of straight-ahead rock, that features Hamilton Leithauser’s voice prominently. And that is a very good thing.

41. Real Estate “Atlas”

We’re running through a streak of decidedly “white guy rock,” approaching its apex with “Atlas.” The songs here are a little more amped-up than on “Days,” which isn’t really saying a whole lot. Like its predecessor, this is an album you want to listen to on a winter night. “How Might I Live” is also the worst wedding song ever/makes me wish we had had a wedding so that I could have forced the DJ to play it.

40. Vampire Weekend “Father of the Bride”

…and we have reached the apex. Only one other artist or band has 3 albums in the top 40 of this list. Draw any conclusion you’d like from that. Each Vampire Weekend album in the discography is different. “Father of the Bride” is the most different, evoking an oft-cited Grateful Dead feel. I was concerned that Rostam’s departure would affect Vampire Weekend and it did, just not in a bad way. This is a long album that never feels long. It’s also an album that, despite its newness, has a signature listening moment (a fast, open-sunroof tear through the backroads of a northwest Arkansas night).

39. Frank Ocean “Channel Orange”

The only album on this list that features a John Mayer contribution. “Channel Orange” is a little more scatter-shot than “Blonde” but go ahead and try to find a clunker on here. Even the nearly 10 minute long “Pyramids” is worth every moment (and I’ll add, I was shocked when doing this exercise to discover that the song is nearly 10 minutes long. I would have guessed 5.).

38. Waxahatchee “Out in the Storm”

When it comes to the next decade, there is probably no other artist whose music I’m more excited to hear than Katie Crutchfield. Her growth from album to album is a marvel. This, her most recent release, is her strongest and it announces itself as being different from “Ivy Tripp” right off the bat with the loud, rocking, refined “”Never Been Wrong.” She’s also such an impressive singer that if she put out an album of her reading a James Patterson novel (and I didn’t have the 3 album limit), it would have made the top 100 too.

37. The National “Trouble Will Find Me”

This year’s “I Am Easy To Find” is, on the spectrum of National albums, diametrically opposed to “Trouble Will Find Me.” Find a light moment here and you’re our generation’s most daring explorer. This is, even for this band, an especially heavy and dark album. And if you’re wondering why an album I described as “heavy and dark” is ranked so high, you’ve just stumbled upon a stranger’s long-ass blog post. The vocals on “Slipped” get me every time.

36. Sylvan Esso “What Now”

This feels like a good time to talk about 2017. 16 albums from that year (including this one) make it on this list, with still 4 more to come. But on to “What Now” which deserves as much space as my tiring mind can allow. If you don’t like dance music, this isn’t for you. If you don’t like sometimes sad dance music, this isn’t for you. If you don’t like heavily electronic music, this is not for you. If you don’t like beautiful vocals, this isn’t for you and also, seek help immediately. When this album hits what would probably be side B in a different era (“Song”) I enter this zone where all I want to do is dance. I once spent a fairly quiet morning in the Senate listening to this album on my committee hearing rounds and the combination of the bleakness of the Capitol and the beauty in Amelia Meath’s voice made for such a significant juxtaposition. That listen has especially stuck with me. I’d also note here that we’ve entered a phase were ranking these albums got much harder as basically everything from here to the end holds a significant amount of importance to me.

35. Paramore “Paramore”

You can scoff all you want. This is a really great rock album. Paramore’s sound has refined and Hayley Williams’ star has continued to rise, deservedly so, but this is the kind of rock album that a lot of pop-punk bands try (poorly) to write. “Fast In My Car” is a stomper of a first track. “Proof” is my favorite love song of the decade and “Be Alone” isn’t far behind. Williams is an incredible vocalist and for anybody who wrote them off 11 years ago, you’re missing out.

34.Edward Sharpe and the Magnetic Zeroes “Here”

This was my 2012 Album of the Year and yet no song from it made my end of year “Best Of” playlist. This is an easy band to hate, even if “Home” (from their previous release) is a catchy ass song. You’ve got the whole cult leader frontman thing. And the frontman was in the band Ima Robot. And they make folksy gospel music. This is absolutely the kind of thing I would hate on its surface. And yet, this album was so damn different from anything else I listened to in 2012 or any year, hence no song making that playlist. In 2013, my grandfather suffered an aneurysm and one day, on the hour-long drive back from the rehab hospital with my Nana, I was trying to find an album that would be enjoyable for both of us to listen to. The only one I could think of was this one. And she liked it. And I’ll always remember that drive when I listen to “Here.” Personal things like that should matter with art. If someone tells you otherwise, they’re probably a joyless person.

33. LCD Soundsystem “American Dream”

The final album from LCD Soundsystem is their most directly angry. There are very pointed songs about modern American life here with “call the police” being the headliner. There are also some of the band’s most lovely sonic elements scattered throughout. Album closer (and band closer, perhaps) “black screen” is how any of us should hope to go out.

32. Kendrick Lamar “DAMN”

Speaking of albums that were very much of their moment, I have no idea how much this album spoke for marginalized peoples living in the U.S. under the Trump regime, because, you know, I’m not one of them. But the experiences that Kendrick writes about here feel ripped from the sad state of modern American life. And the album itself is his tightest, most cohesive long-form work in his career. We do the “voice of a generation” thing, well, every generation. I’m too old to give this generation their voice, but I will say, it it’s not Kendrick, they’re doing it wrong. And if it’s Post Malone, we’re all in trouble.

31. Amen Dunes “Freedom”

2018’s Album of the Year. In a down year for music (for me), this album shone brightly. The lyrics are sometimes barely decipherable and when you can manage to make out what Damon McMahon is saying, you’re on your own when it comes to interpretation. “Freedom” works very well as a whole album. It evokes a feeling. For me, that feeling is relaxation. For you, maybe it’s complete and utter fear. Again, it’s all up to your interpretation.

30. Against Me! “Transgender Dysphoria Blues”

I’ve written a little bit in this lot of writing about shared experiences and how in many cases, my existence as a non-marginalized person makes it harder for me to truly connect with the music I’m listening to. Enter “Transgender Dysphoria Blues.” In the latter stage of the previous decade, Against Me! was basically known for “selling out.” Of course, like most “sell outs” this meant that the music that they made was much better-sounding and allowed the band members to live more comfortable lives. Then in 2012, lead singer Tom Gabel announced in a Rolling Stone profile that he had been living life as a woman named Laura Jane Grace and was in the process of transitioning. Two years later, this album dropped. It was more raw than the band’s previous two major label releases. But it’s the lyrics that really mattered. Grace sings so directly about her transition, how she perceives her public perception, and how she perceives herself. I don’t know that any artist released a more personal piece of music this decade. And certainly no artist did it in a way that was so direct. It’s hard to listen to this album and not hear Grace’s struggles and joys.

29. Pusha T “Daytona”

The best thing that Kanye West has done in the last few years was produce this album. Album opener “If You Know, You Know” was my most listened to track in 2018 AND 2019. I often say that I don’t necessarily know what “well-produced” music sounds like. But if I had to guess, it’s this. Pusha raps about Pusha things: cocaine (selling it), being very important, being better than Drake, etc. Unlike the previous album on this list, where the lyrics are the focal point, it’s the music here. This is a very tight 21 minute, 7 track musical masterclass. Oh, and “Infared” killed Drake. If you see someone else performing as Drake now, it’s kind of an Ultimate Warrior type thing.

28. Destroyer “Kaputt”

What a wonderfully weird, completely unrelated group of three albums we have here from 30-28. This is the perfect Destroyer album that I mentioned way back at entry number 91. It’s a smooth jazz record, laden with horns. And there’s some disco beats (“Savage Night at the Opera”) thrown in. And some synths too. Oh, and the lyrics are completely bonkers. “Step out of your toga and into the fog. You are a prince on the ocean. In a pinch in the sky. In your eye.” Like I said, this is the perfect Destroyer album.

27. Car Seat Headrest “Teens of Denial”

We’ve entered a point in this process where a lot of artists are going to repeat. In fact, one will have three albums between 10 and 21. This is Car Seat Headrest’s second entry, their breakthrough album, and 2016’s “Album of the Year.” It’s cleaner than previous Car Seat Headrest releases. One of the things I really like about Will Toledo is that his songs take their time. 7 of the 12 tracks here clock in over 5 minutes (one at 11 1/2 minutes). And yet, there’s not much here that you could call “boring” or “down time.” Each guitar solo or extended bridge feels thoroughly necessary. And each word, even the seemingly superfluous where he’s talking directly to his antagonist(s), carries heft.

26. Japandroids “Near to the Wild Heart of Life”

As I look at this very long list, written out over pages of notebook paper, I see a lot of “rock” records. That is to say, there are guitars and drums and riffs. When the decade ends in a few days, few artists will be able to say they wrote better rock records than Japandroids. Here, the lyrics are a little more mature (overlooking that “I used to be good, but now I’m bad” one from the opening track) and the sound a little more polished, all without losing any of the urgency or energy of their previous two releases.

25. Rick Ross “Teflon Don”

Mainstream rap albums tend to lean towards the bloated and overwrought, filled with intros, interludes, and many bad ideas that a good producer would have left behind (See: every single Drake album). “Teflon Don” is the literal opposite. It’s a tight 49 minutes. Not an interlude in sight. Just banger after banger, with a guest list that reads like a hall of fame entry: Jay Z, Diddy, TI, Jadakiss, Kanye, Gucci Mane, even Erykah Badu makes an appearance. On the title track, Ross raps, “My (community of friends) never sing, if I need ’em, I go to Ne-Yo” and then Ne-Yo pops up later in the album. Yes, his raps are comically boastful. And yes, he used to be a corrections officer. If authenticity means that much to you, I’m so sorry that you can’t sit back and enjoy this giant-sounding masterpiece in audacity.

24. Maggie Rogers “Heard It In a Past Life”

Catch artists 26-24 on tour this summer! As with each of the 2019 albums on this list, time will tell whether I overshot (or undershot). My introduction to Maggie Rogers was her performance on SNL. My normal course of action with the SNL musical guest is to save eight minutes of my life. But I was curious as to why this person I’d never heard before was performing on this show I don’t even enjoy watching anymore. I heard one second and I didn’t skip either performance. I’m familiar with the Pharrell story now, and it’s remarkable to watch, not so much for his response to “Alaska” but as compared to his reaction to the other stuff he was hearing. I played this album over and over and over again this year. Rogers’ ability to jump through genres is remarkable and a testament to her incredible voice. She’s also a really good songwriter, which, you know, only adds to the appeal.

23. Gold Motel “Summer House”

You know exactly what you’re getting from the moment you hit “play” on “Summer House.” This is jangly, sweet, 60’s inspired California surf rock for the modern world. This album is almost 10 years old and continues to feel so fresh every time I listen to it. And, honestly, listening in California makes it even better.

22. LCD Soundsystem “This is Happening”

I joked earlier about having an “electronic” phase, but maybe it was just an LCD Soundsystem phase. Though phases are supposed to end, right? James Murphy is as talented of a lyricist as you’ll find on this list and at times downright funny. At about 3 minutes in, this album explodes in an electronic melange of noise. Murphy is also a tender songwriter, and album closer “Home” highlights that wonderfully. Like Gold Motel, this is a 2010 album that never feels old.

21. Kevin Morby “Singing Saw”

Ah, entry number one of three for Kevin Morby. Is three too many? No, it’s my list and Morby’s music was so important to the last half of this decade for me. His lyrics are direct, bordering on simple. His music is accessible, mostly acoustic guitars and drums and maybe a mandolin or banjo here and there. And it’s all tinged with the right amount of melancholy. The last two tracks on “Singing Saw” are a couple of movers. “Black Flowers” uses dying flowers as a metaphor for a relationship gone wrong and “Water” sees Morby, singing in the first person, dragging himself back to life. But it doesn’t feel that melodramatic. It feels genuine. And I like that.

20. Saintseneca “Dark Arc”

We have reached the top 20. If you’re still reading, you’re either a good friend or a very interesting stranger. You know how I’ve written about accessible lyrics and voices? Yeah, Saintseneca doesn’t do that. These are spiritual songs sung in such a way that I wouldn’t necessarily recommend this band to everybody I know. There’s not a lot of conventionality here. Big songs become quiet. Quiet songs become big. Saintseneca is one of the most interesting bands of this decade. And this is their best record.

19. Kanye West “My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy”

Kanye West is a little-known rapper and producer from Chicago, who now lives in Los Angeles County with his wife and children. He released this modest album in 2010, clocking in at a mere 68 minutes and featuring other underground rappers, such as Jay-Z. The primary theme of the album is that Kanye West is better than you and everybody that you know or love. Little has been heard of Mr. West since the release of this album.

18. Kevin Morby “Oh My God”

In early 2019, my grandmother died. Grandmothers typically do that. My grandmother’s death was the lowest moment of my life and I miss her every single day. Kevin Morby, a musical artist I like, released this concept album about death, the afterlife, goodness, and spirituality two months later. He did not write this album about my grandmother. That would have been weird. But music has its way of forcing us to make connections between what we’re hearing and our own lives. I listened to this album on a flight home this year and thought a lot about my Nana. So when I hear the lyric ‘O Behold this hole in my heart,” I’m regularly moved to tears. And if this whole exercise is about making a connection with the music, well, mission accomplished.

17. The Gaslight Anthem “American Slang”

Fair to say this album doesn’t carry the same emotional weight…This is a great rock album by a really good rock band. Imagine someone gave 1980s Springsteen only two electric guitars, a bass guitar, and drums and said, “you have to keep the guitars plugged in.” That’s this.

16. Fleet Foxes “Helplessness Blues”

Robin Pecknold’s ability to write absolutely beautiful orchestrations might only be outmatched by his incredible voice. There is so much happening in nearly every song on this album that repeated listens are frequently rewarded. Little notes you never heard before. An instrument buried beneath others that jumps out at you six years later. Sometimes I honestly forget how much I love this album and whenever I listen, I’m instantly reminded.

15. Haim “Days Are Gone”

This album got me through the more dreadful and lonely parts of my 2013 solo cross country road trip. And it’s a good thing I was solo, because nobody should have to listen to me try to sing Haim songs. On those days where I felt trapped, I would simply roll the windows down and blast “Days Are Gone.” Haim’s harmonies are on full display here. The sisters’ different singing styles blend so wonderfully. Some of the criticism of Haim is that they resemble Fleetwood Mac in sound, which is like trying to insult me by saying I look like Daniel Day-Lewis. Yeah, I kind of do and that’s perfectly okay.

14. Hamilton + Rostam “I Had A Dream That You Were Mine”

Hamilton Leithauser’s voice, with its soaring croon, is my favorite male singing voice. Rostam Batmanglij’s production and instrumentation is some of my favorite, as evidenced by his presence on this list once as a solo artist, once as part of a duo, and thrice as a member of Vampire Weekend. This is one of those albums that takes its time. It’s not over-long, but no song feels rushed. It’s clear that you’re listening to two seasoned veterans making a grown-up music album. And, for Leithauser, it sounds like the most fun he’s had making a record in a long time.

13. Beach Slang “The Things We Do To Find People Who Feel Like Us”

Depending on where you fall, you either find Beach Slang to be inauthentic and thus a pointless listen (Hi Amanda!) or you buy into lead singer James Alex’s heart-bleeding-all-over-sleeve message and you find Beach Slang to be a thrilling, emotional defibrillator of a rock band. I’m clearly in the latter camp. This was the runaway 2015 Album of the Year. If you enjoy The Replacements, you’ll, um, see some similarities here. Like, a lot. This is not transcendent music trying to be something it’s not. It’s straight forward emotional, punk rock.

12. Sky Ferreria “Night Time, My Time”

Oh, Sky. It’s been almost six years since she released this album and in the interim, she has released exactly one song. And yet, there was no hesitation on my part to include her. At no point in the last six years have I not perused an “upcoming albums” list looking for her name. That’s how good this album is. There’s a direct line between “Night Time, My Time” and mid-1980s, synth-heavy pop-rock music. Ferreria is a skilled songwriter and singer, with an obvious ear for hooks. This album is littered with them. Time will tell if the next one, whenever that is, resembles it. But until it’s released, I’ll happily keep replaying “Night Time…”

11. Vampire Weekend “Modern Vampires of the City”

When Vampire Weekend released “Modern Vampires…” it signaled the end of that first era of Vampire Weekend. They threw out the boat shoes and the afro-beats, and the bookwormy lyrics that spilled over, sometimes obnoxiously, on their debut album and showed up on “Contra” (more on “Contra” to come). Here is Ezra Koennig at his most open and direct. “Hannah Hunt” is a lovely, somber first-person account of a break-up during a road trip, if you believe that the singer was actually road-tripping from the physical cities of Providence and Phoenix and not the idea of providence and the representation of phoenix. And yes, this was Ezra at *his* most direct.

10. Kevin Morby “City Music”

Morby says he wrote this album from the perspective of an old woman in a high-rise apartment looking down on the city living beneath her (paraphrase). Morby’s music is not exactly brimming with fist-pounding anthems, but by comparison to that catalog, “City Music” is slow, quiet, and full of reflection. And whether you listen to it from the perspective of a lonely old person or through your own lens, or choose to listen to the first-person lyrics as coming from Morby, about Morby, you’re bound to be moved by the quiet sadness in this album.

9. Youth Lagoon “The Year of Hibernation”

2011’s “Album of the Year” comes from a person from Idaho making reverb-filled electronic songs of deep sadness and desire, presumably in a bedroom or cave. There is so much space around each of the songs on “The Year of Hibernation.” This is not a masterpiece of music production and it’s not supposed to be. Some of the drum tracks sound like they are taken from a Casio keyboard. None of these remarks should be read as flippant. I love this record. I love Trevor Powers’ vulnerability. This is a dream pop album just brimming with moments of soaring emotion. It’s not for everyone. But it’s absolutely for me.

8. The War on Drugs “Slave Ambient”

Not every album on this list has a signature listening moment, and that’s okay. This album does. Driving through the barren state highways in central New Mexico, alongside a freight train, on a sunny April day in 2012. This is, compared to the next two albums in the War on Drugs discography, brief and sparse. It is, of course, neither of those things. But it certainly feels different than those two albums, calling to a more dense Dire Straits, as opposed to the Springsteen of “Lost in the Dream” and “A Deeper Understanding.” Few bands that I listened to this decade did as well with instrumental songs as The War on Drugs. “Original Slave” is a perfect and unexpected bridge between “Baby Missiles” and “Black Water Falls” Elsewhere “Your Love Is Calling My Name” starts with frantic energy and somehow sustains that for over six minutes. This is an album that demands to be listened to loud and I adhere to that demand strictly.

7. The National “High Violet”

I’ve said a lot of words about The National previously. They make beautiful, often very sad, music. The songs on “High Violet” are bigger than their works from the decade prior and the back half of this album (Side B if you will) is a tour de force (not to shortchange Side A). The keys on “Bloodbuzz Ohio” might be buried a bit beneath the vocals and drums and horns, but without them, it’s a different song. The National are very clearly a band that knows how to make songs, which isn’t always a given. “England,” for what it’s worth, is my favorite National song.

6. Modern Baseball “Holy Ghost”

This is, for my money, the best album of this renaissance of pop-punk and emo and, sadly, the last Modern Baseball album. Broken up into two halves, each led by a different singer, this feels like a double album despite its modest 27 minute length. This isn’t a band trying to transcend a sound or anything. More like a band perfecting that sound. I have never heard a more perfect pop-punk album. Songs about the road? Check. Songs about diagnosed mental disorders? Check. Songs about heartbreak? Check. Sing-along choruses? You bet. It hits every note I could possibly want in its 27 minutes.

5. The Walkmen “Lisbon”

You’ve read the words “beautiful” and “music” so many times on this list, but this will be the last time, I promise. Because this is the most beautiful album on this list. I care very much about the feelings that albums evoke or the settings they transport you to. Ironic it is then that on an album titled “Lisbon” I place myself behind a fogging window on a winter night with nothing but candlelight illuminating the room. Maybe it’s the guitar playing. Maybe it’s Hamilton Leithauser’s voice. It’s not all slow moving winter night songs, but it’s all that feeling. Few, if any, albums on this list put me into a better head space than this one.

4. Vampire Weekend “Contra”

Is “Run” a love song? I’ve always heard it as one. “Honey with you (oh oh oh) is the only honest way to go…” sounds so romantic to my ear. Something happens along the way on this record. When “Giving Up The Gun” shows up, we get the perfect confluence of what Vampire Weekend was and what Vampire Weekend would become. This is the oldest album on this list, having been released on January 11, 2010. It feels, at times, very much of its era. Three of the top four albums on this list were released in 2010. I guess that probably shows that I’m an old fuddy-duddy who only wants to hear the classics. For me, though, when I hear an album like “Contra” I hear a band that was making exciting music. “Contra” really is the best album that Paul Simon could have made.

3. Lorde “Melodrama”

9,000 or so words ago, I wrote about how much this list trended white and, especially, male. I wrote that because when I made this list, I realized that Lorde was the only female artist to crack the top 10. If you’re asking how that happened, you probably aren’t familiar with Lorde’s work. I touched upon this with the entry for “Pure Heroine,” but I marvel at the way Lorde writes music from the perspective of a (in this case) 20 something Kiwi woman that manages to connect with every audience. The vitriol that she feels for her ex on “Writer in the Dark” is the vitriol we’ve all felt when we become the jilted lover. She just writes about it better than anybody else. She’s essentially taken the journal of a teenager and for the last six years, allowed us all to read it. Questioning authority, falling in love, staying out late, regretting that, feeling alone. “Melodrama” is a timeless record. And if I’m ever to have a son or daughter, when they’ve reached the appropriate age, I’m excited to share this album with them.

2. Surfer Blood “Astro Coast”

Here we have the conundrum of separating art from artist. Rarely do I do that. Surfer Blood, or more aptly, this album, is the exception. A few years after the release of “Astro Coast,” lead singer John Paul Pitts was arrested and charged with domestic battery. Because it was 2012 and society collectively didn’t care much about women then, he kept making music and it mostly sucked, though that’s neither here nor there. At the time of his arrest, this was already one of my favorite albums. When I listen to this and when I rank it as my second favorite album of the decade, I am fully aware of the very awful things that he did to his girlfriend in 2012. “Astro Coast” is my second favorite album of the decade because I have separated the artist (asshole?) from the music he and his bandmates made in 2010.

As for the album, I fell in love on the first note and with the first lyric. I’ve often heard them compared to Weezer and I’ve never gotten that comparison. They’re Surfer Blood. Problematic lead singer and all. And for better or worse, I’ll take this album with me wherever life takes me.

1. Arcade Fire “The Suburbs”

This was my Album of the Deacde from the moment I finished listening to it for the first time on August 2, 2010. I’ve been thinking for a while now about what I’d write when I got to this album and how to describe how I feel about it. I could say “I love it” but I truly “love” at least 25 albums on this list. I could say that it speaks to its time, and it did, but tell me that “City With No Children” doesn’t also speak to this time, nine years later. I could say that “Sprawl II” is a really good song and that Regine Chassagne shines so brightly throughout this album in a way she hadn’t necessarily before. She’s really the star of “The Suburbs.” I could say that it’s an indie rock album that inexplicably and much to the surprise of Rosie O’Donnell, won the damn Album of the Year Grammy. I could say that it’s big. I could say that it’s emotional. I could say that it captures the feeling of being trapped in a soul-crushing existence better than any piece of art this century. I could say all of those things. And I just did. And I could say a lot more.

Living Through The Genocide

In a past life, I had a job working for Senator Harry Reid. In that job, people who have moved on to much bigger things trusted me to “handle” advocates at press events and photo ops. Mostly this meant I’d ask Michael Bolton if he’d like a water and if he was clear on the speaking order.

After Sandy Hook, I started working with the sisters, teachers, and mothers whose lives were transformed forever by that shooting. I spent a lot of time with them and got to know a few of them well. They were poised and focused. The first visit was filled with the optimism that comes from “doing something.” With each visit though, it seemed (and maybe I’m wrong) that the optimism waned internally for some of them. Remember, these are people whose six year old children were massacred by a heavily armed man in the middle of the day for no particular reason. One visit to the Capitol should have been enough. Two should have been enough. Three…
When it came time for Manchin-Toomey, somehow the closest thing we’ve gotten to bipartisan gun legislation, the Sandy Hook families returned. I sat with them in the Leader’s gallery, above the Senate floor. I knew the result beforehand. Moments like John McCain’s face turn are rare in the Senate. I’d guess that on 90% of votes, any senior and a lot of junior staffers, can tell you how every member will vote.
The Sandy Hook families, though, did not know the result beforehand. They returned with that optimism from that first trip. Then they had that optimism ripped from them not unlike how their loved ones were ripped from them.
One mother of a Sandy Hook teacher stood up and yelled “shame.” She was removed from the gallery by US Capitol Police and taken briefly into custody but never charged with anything if I remember correctly. There was and remains a sick irony in that moment.
As she was being apprehended, I broke the fourth wall and just apologized a lot to her and the other family members for the place that I chose to work. Manchin-Toomey was the sort of legislation that any rational person looked at and said “well at least it’s something.” But for Senate Republicans, something was too much. Something remains too much today in the wake of yet two more of these regular acts of violence.
Whenever one of these massacres occurs, I think of the Sandy Hook families. Once I left Reid’s office in 2013, I lost track of them. I wonder where their minds go to when they see that 20 people were slaughtered to death in a Walmart on a Saturday. Sandy Hook wasn’t the first case of an angry white man with access to an AR-15 killing a lot of people for some or no reason. But it was supposed to be the straw that broke the turtle’s back.
Instead, we are here. Every single moment that Mitch McConnell, John Cronyn, John Thune, and Roy Blunt dare leave their homes, they should be confronted with the faces of the people they had a chance to protect, but chose campaign donations over.
I made a tweet yesterday about the staff members who work for those and other Republican senators. They are people that many of you consider friends and trust me, it’s okay to have friends who believe in lower taxes. It is not okay, though, to have friends who believe that it’s okay that a dozen or so five year olds should die at school or that families out shopping on a Saturday should have their heads shot through.
Talk to these friends. Ask them if they understand what they’re doing working for people as callous as McConnell, Cornyn, and the rest. There are many, many jobs in Washington for people who happen to believe in conservatism and not all of them involve turning a blind eye away from the rush of human blood.