I wrote my 2018 season preview with a somewhat lengthy intro discussing the labor practices employed during that offseason by MLB clubs. Those practices consisted of a sort of free agency by attrition. “Alarm the players by withholding offers until they’re desperate to play baseball and will do it for a 50% discount.”

Those trends were not only employed during this most recent offseason, they were intensified. At the start of Spring Training, four of the top five or six free agents were unsigned. Today, as I write this, two of those players (Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel) stunningly remain free agents, available to any club who wants to add the 2015 Cy Young award winner and/or Craig Kimbrel. Keuchel’s free agency is the one that I find more troublesome because it dovetails into the bigger, murkier problem that I see with Major League Baseball…

The nerds!

Now, I’m a nerd, in both the baseball and real sense (I like professional wrestling more than I like those weird running races where everybody gets dirty for some reason but seem like something cool people do). I want to stick exclusively here though to the baseball side. “Nerd” has become a pejorative used by old baseball players, some young baseball players, many fans on social media, many fans who don’t know what social media is, and various people whose job it is to write and talk about baseball. They use “nerd” to describe Ivy League-educated front office executives who have transformed the way that the business of baseball is conducted. I alluded to this a little last year, but the “Moneyball” concept popularized by the Oakland Athletics in the early 2000s and thrown into the public zeitgeist by a terrible, awful movie, is now the norm in baseball. It might be a complex situation, but it sure as hell doesn’t seem like one to me. The MLB Players Association repeatedly got their asses kicked in collective bargaining discussions by the owners and now find themselves in a situation where the 30 owners, whose job it is in this capitalist nightmare to turn the largest profit for their own benefit, can easily make record profits by paying Cambodian riel to young players for upwards of six seasons before those players’ agents can truly negotiate to receive their clients’ actual monetary value.

The so-called nerds have also shaped the way rosters are built. And that may be a reason why a guy like Keuchel remains unemployed. The long-revered “innings eater” has been all-but-proven to have been a bad idea. Baseball of 20 and even 10 years ago is littered with guys who had almost decade-long careers despite producing well-below average results. On a recent trip down the baseballreference.com hole, I stumbled upon James Baldwin’s page. Baldwin was a Major League starting pitcher for seven years of an utterly unremarkable 11 year career. He pitched at least 150 innings in each of those seven seasons. Only once was he above league average. Every fifth day, James Baldwin would go out there with a 5.00 ERA, strike out hardly anybody, pitch over five innings and somehow stay employed. Think he’s an outlier? Take a look at the pages for Baseball-Reference’s “similar players.” Ramon Ortiz, Adam Eaton, Rodrigo Lopez, Kyle Kendrick, Colby Lewis, Joey Hamilton, and on and on and on.

Now, Dallas Keuchel is not the same pitcher as those gentlemen. He is much better and is a recent Cy Young winner. He is an extreme groundball pitcher with a career ERA of 3.66 and an ERA+ of 108. He is, by definition, an above-average pitcher. But he is a dinosaur.  Keuchel’s fastball is “on” when it’s 90 mph and as a groundball pitcher , he’s going to give up contact. Contact, in baseball 2019 is not a good thing. Which brings me to the whole crux of this long diatribe:

I don’t think I like baseball as much as I used to and I think that’s my fault. Now, understand, I have absolutely no influence on anyone. I barely have influence on myself. But I feel a little guilty that the baseball I spent years demanding has arrived and I think it’s making the game less enjoyable to watch. Home runs are a good thing offensively. The goal of baseball is to score more runs. Strikeouts are good for pitchers. The goal of baseball is to make the team get more outs and the most effective way to do that is to prevent them from even hitting the ball. It took baseball a long time to reach these universal conclusions, somehow. I’m personally torn between 1.) knowing that the science says this is the best way to build baseball teams for on-field success and 2.) standing on the street corner with a sign that reads “Bring Back the Dodo.” Or perhaps, “Bring Back James Baldwin. No. Not That One. The Pitcher. But Yes Also The Author.”

Brief team capsules below (scroll to the bottom for predicted division standings, playoffs, and awards stuff if you’d like):

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Current Status: Losing to rebuild. The prospects aren’t quite there yet for a full rebuild, so they need to be real bad first.

Biggest Offseason Move: Trading franchise cornerstone Paul Goldschmidt for St. Louis’ former top prospects.

Most Exciting Player: Archie Bradley. An important note here is that if a team’s most exciting player is a relief pitcher, that team isn’t going to have a very good 2019.

Are They Worth Watching?: No, they are not.

ATLANTA BRAVES
Current Status: Light contention. They won their division last year but did very little in free agency to build off of that.

Biggest Offseason Move: Signing Josh Donaldson to a one-year contract, where they’ll pay him a lot of money, knowing that if he bounces back, he’s going to sign somewhere else next offseason, and if he doesn’t bounce back, they just spent $23 million on a one-year third base stopgap while they wait for prospect Austin Riley to be ready.

Most Exciting Player: Ronald Acuña Jr. is so exciting at the plate. He’s the Patrick Mahomes of baseball. I don’t watch a lot of football so I’m going with that.

Are They Worth Watching?: They are.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Current Status: Rigor mortis is setting in.

Biggest Offseason Move: Accepting the reality that we are all mortal.

Most Exciting Player: They have some really good minor league players who I think are good who the Orioles will inevitably ruin.

Are They Worth Watching?: Are you a sadist?

BOSTON RED SOX
Current Status: Trying to keep New England sports fans happy by ending their long, championship-less curse.

Biggest Offseason Move: Nothing. The Red Sox did nothing. They brought Steve Pearce back on an insignificant contract and they signed Nathan Eovaldi to a “thank you for your services” contract that WEEI callers will be complaining about by August.

Most Exciting Player: As long as he’s a player on this team, the answer will be Mookie Betts.

Are They Worth Watching?: Yes, if you’re able to find any of their games on ESPN or MLB Network.

CHICAGO CUBS
Current Status: Hanging on to 2016 like Al Bundy talking about his 4 TDs at Polk High.

Biggest Offseason Move: Somehow not sending human monster Addison Russell away to baseball purgatory. Other than that, the Cubs did not make anything resembling a roster upgrade.

Most Exciting Player: Javy Baez. If he could actually develop into a slightly more selective hitter, he’d be an MVP candidate. That said, on an otherwise boring, but good, Cubs team, he’s lightning.

Are They Worth Watching?: Well, I did just call them boring. But yes. They play in a really competitive division and this seems like it could be the end of this run if they don’t make a deep playoff push.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Current Status: Wrapping Dylan Cease and Eloy Jimenez in bubble wrap.

Biggest Offseason Move: Signing anybody who ever talked to Manny Machado in the saddest effort to get him to sign there.

Most Exciting Player: Eloy Jimenez. Sure, he’s never played in a Major League game, but as a person who spent an inordinate amount of his time watching Jimenez in the minors, let me tell you, his power is prodigious.

Are They Worth Watching?: Worth the occasional pop-in to check on Jimenez and eventually when they call up top pitching prospect Dylan Cease. 2020 and the return of Michael Kopech should see a real improvement in the White Sox’s outlook.

CINCINNATI REDS
Current Status: I think they’re trying to win the NL Central.

Biggest Offseason Move: The most fascinating below-the-radar story heading into this season is how Yasiel Puig will transition from stardom in LA to playing baseball in southwestern Ohio. The Reds decided to bring Puig, Alex Wood, and Matt Kemp in from LA. They took a chance on Sonny Gray. And they traded for Tanner Roark. They were active. I didn’t understand their activity, but they were certainly active.

Most Exciting Player: I adore Joey Votto, but I also used the word “exciting,” so let’s go with Puig with a nod to the under appreciated Jesse Winker.

Are They Worth Watching?: Probably not.

CLEVELAND INDIANS
Current Status: Content with winning the AL Central.

Biggest Offseason Move: Not trading Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer.

Most Exciting Player: Jose Ramirez.

Are They Worth Watching?: Sure.

COLORADO ROCKIES
Current Status: Good.

Biggest Offseason Move: Signing Daniel Murphy to play 1B feels like a stroke of genius, assuming Murphy still has something (besides his unsavory views on homosexuality) in the tank.

Most Exciting Player: Nolan Arenado. The Rockies locked up their massively talented 3B to a long-term deal. Arenado is a gem at the hot corner who will also hit close to 40 homers at the plate.

Are They Worth Watching?: Absolutely. They’ll be in a really fun race with the Padres and Dodgers.

DETROIT TIGERS
Current Status: Bad baseball team.

Biggest Offseason Move: THEY SIGNED JORDY MERCER!!!!

Most Exciting Player: Not Jordy Mercer. This is a dreadfully boring baseball team. But Josh Harrison seems cool so let’s give him this.

Are They Worth Watching?: Are you having trouble sleeping?

HOUSTON ASTROS
Current Status: Being great.

Biggest Offseason Move: The Astros made a really high-upside, low-risk signing bringing Michael Brantley on board. They also re-signed Alex Bregman long-term. And I have a feeling they’ll be the team to sign Keuchel.

Most Exciting Player: There are exciting players everywhere here, including just below the Major League level with top prospect Forrest Whitley. For me though, it’s George Springer. He’s not the best player on this team, but he’s very much the leadoff hitter for this generation of baseball and a guy who is fun to watch play.

Are They Worth Watching?: Yes. Every night.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Current Status: Things are very much back to normal in Kansas City.

Biggest Offseason Move: This is the Royals. They don’t do “big offseason moves.”

Most Exciting Player: Whit Merrifield is a really good baseball player even if it sounds like I just made his name up.

Are They Worth Watching?: They are not.

LOS ANGELES CALIFORNIA ANGELS OF ANAHEIM CALIFORNIA ANGELS
Current Status: Mired in mediocrity.

Biggest Offseason Move: Convincing one of the greatest players to ever play baseball that, yes, he does want to play baseball in the shadow of the 5 freeway for the rest of his career.

Most Exciting Player: Mike Trout.

Are They Worth Watching?: Mike Trout is very much worth watching on a regular basis. Mike Trout plays for this team. Ergo, yes, they are worth watching.

NOTE: I will never not stop making fun of this team being the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Imagine the New York Yankees of Albany or the Chicago White Sox of Naperville.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS (OF LOS ANGELES)
Current Status: Trying not to lose in the World Series for a third consecutive season.

Biggest Offseason Move: Trading Puig and signing AJ Pollock. No word on if the Pollock signing includes any sort of lemon law or return policy.

Most Exciting Player: Walker Buehler. He’s unhittable and a solid Cy Young bet.

Are They Worth Watching?: Yes.

MIAMI MARLINS
Current Status: Marlining.

Biggest Offseason Move: They didn’t trade Christian Yelich this offseason.

Most Exciting Player: null

Are They Worth Watching?: Absolutely never.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Current Status: World Series or bust.

Biggest Offseason Move: Bringing in Yasmani Grandal and, one would assume, some large net to place behind him while he’s catching.

Most Exciting Player: Yelich, Josh Hader, Jesus Aguilar…any of those. I also have a real thing for Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff whose philosophy as starting pitchers appears to be “strike out everybody.”

Are They Worth Watching?: 100%

MINNESOTA TWINS
Current Status: Creeping quietly into Cleveland Indians bedroom while they’re sleeping.

Biggest Offseason Move: Signing Nelson Cruz. He hits dingers. A lot of dingers. That’s been missing from Minnesota for a while now.

Most Exciting Player: Byron Buxton. I may be the last person driving the bandwagon, which at this point resembles a unicycle more than a wagon. He’s still got five tools in his pocket. There are not many players in baseball like him. If he puts it together, he can challenge Trout for “best in the game.” Yes, I’m kind of delusional.

Are They Worth Watching?: They’re medium worth it. Very worth it when Jose Berrios is pitching.

NEW YORK METS
Current Status: Continuing to act like a small-market team despite playing in, you know, New York City.

Biggest Offseason Move: I guess it’s bringing Robinson Cano aboard. I don’t get the trade.

Most Exciting Player: deGrom or Syndergaard. deGrom is consistently dominant. Syndergaard can be even more dominant than deGrom at times. I’ll take deGrom.

Are They Worth Watching?: They are AND they have the best in-booth TV announcers in baseball in my opinion.

NEW YORK YANKEES
Current Status: Contending for a World Series while not spending much money in free agency.

Biggest Offseason Move: Signing Troy Tulowitzki (calm down it’s the year 2019).

Most Exciting Player: Aaron Judge because he’s big and hits big home runs.

Are They Worth Watching?: See Red Sox, Boston.

OAKLAND ATHLETICS
Current Status: Really hoping that 2018 was not a fluke.

Biggest Offseason Move: See Royals, Kansas City.

Most Exciting Player: Matt Chapman, with apologies to Khris Davis who hits more home runs than anyone. Chapman may be the AL’s answer to Nolan Arenado.

Are They Worth Watching?: Only slightly more watchable than the Twins, which sounds more insulting than I meant it to.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Current Status: Trying to win a World Series or firing Gabe Kapler. Or maybe both???

Biggest Offseason Move: Trading for catcher JT Realmuto. That’s the only thing the Phillies did this offseason. Yep. That’s it.

Most Exciting Player: Definitely not Bryce Harper.

Are They Worth Watching?: Absolutely. God, they’re so watchable.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Current Status: Quo

Biggest Offseason Move: See Royals, Kansas City or Athletics, Oakland.

Most Exciting Player: Chris Archer. I’ve always been a big fan. He’s an exciting guy to watch pitch because he’s passionate. Baseball needs more Chris Archers.

Are They Worth Watching?: Firmly in the medium tier of teams that I’ll only watch if they’re playing the Nats or they’re the only team with an afternoon game on a Wednesday.

SAN DIEGO PADRES
Current Status: Riding high. Soaking it all in. Making sure the mellow doesn’t harsh.

Biggest Offseason Move: Signing Manny Machado to be the franchise cornerstone for the next decade seems like a good place to start.

Most Exciting Player: Fernando Tatis Jr. Much like Eloy Jimenez, Tatis Jr. has not played a game in the Majors. Another thing that Tatis Jr. has in common with Eloy Jimenez is that he was once in the White Sox organization but then they traded him for James Shields. It’s sad to be a Chicago White Sox fan. Tatis Jr. is one of those hitters for whom the sound of bat to ball makes a different, special kind of noise. He’s going to win the National League Rookie of the Year award.

Are They Worth Watching?: For the first time in a very, very long time, yes. Offensively, they’re a really compelling team. Starting pitching is the wild card. [BAD PUN ALERT] And I think the Padres might be a Wild Card too.

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
Current Status: Wishing this was an even year and also five years ago.

Biggest Offseason Move: With an outfield of Mac Williamson, Steve Duggar, and Austin Slater, why would you even need to make an offseason move?

Most Exciting Player: Madison Bumgarner if only to see how many Latino baseball players he’ll yell at.

Are They Worth Watching?: You’ll be able to find the inevitable video of Bumgarner yelling at Acuña Jr. to play the game the right way. So, no. Not worth watching.

SEATTLE MARINERS
Current Status: Aiming for .500.

Biggest Offseason Move: Trading Robinson Cano. They won’t reap the rewards of that move for a few years, but this feels like a nice little reset for the M’s.

Most Exciting Player: Dee Gordon is a terrific person by all accounts and you should read this admittedly very sad profile of his young life. 

Are They Worth Watching?: They already had their moment in the spotlight with their Japan games against the Athletics. Give someone else a turn.

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Current Status: Remaining just the most classiest organization in all of baseball with the bestest fans there ever were.

Biggest Offseason Move: Acquiring Paul Goldschmidt and giving Arizona very little value for him.

Most Exciting Player: Alex Reyes. He’s the team’s future ace and he’ll likely be pitching out of the bullpen in his first full season back from Tommy John.

Are They Worth Watching?: You have no choice in this matter. There will always be a Cardinals game on television.

TAMPA BAY RAYS
Current Status: Doing that whole 3-man rotation thing again.

Biggest Offseason Move: Signing Charlie Morton to be one of those three men.

Most Exciting Player: It’s probably Blake Snell, but I can’t tell you why he’s exciting.

Are They Worth Watching?: No but they’ll probably win 90 games somehow.

TEXAS RANGERS
Current Status: What’s it called when you go into an MLB season with Mike Minor as your ace?

Biggest Offseason Move: Asdrubal Cabrera is Adrian Beltre’s replacement.

Most Exciting Player: 40 HR/200 K man Joey Gallo. Feel the excitement!

Are They Worth Watching?: Sure if you don’t value your time.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Current Status: Staring at a clock, waiting to call up Vlad Guerrero Jr.

Biggest Offseason Move: The answer is probably Freddy Galvis and that’s a bad answer.

Most Exciting Player: Marcus Stroman for the time being.

Are They Worth Watching?: You will watch them on the day when Vladito makes his Major League debut. There will be no time before that where you should feel compelled to watch them.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Current Status: Getting over a bad breakup.

Biggest Offseason Move: Moving on from their ex.

Most Exciting Player: Juan Soto. We all kind of suck societally right now and that suckiness causes us to not appreciate things that are rare and beautiful, like a teenager coming up from essentially A ball and hitting 22 HR with an OBP over .400 over an MLB season. I saw Juan Soto play in Hagerstown, Maryland in early April of last season. By May 15, he was a Major Leaguer.

Are They Worth Watching?: Yes. Overlay their radio broadcast so that you don’t get baseball brain damage from listening to FP Santangelo on the TV broadcast.

THE PREDICTIONS

AL East

1.  New York
2.  Boston-wc
3.  Tampa Bay
4.  Toronto
5.  Baltimore

AL Central

1.  Minnesota
2.  Cleveland-wc
3.  Chicago
4.  Kansas City
5.  Detroit

AL West

1.  Houston
2.  Seattle
3.  Los Angeles of Anaheim California
4.  Oakland
5.  Texas

NL East

1.  Washington
2.  Philadelphia-wc
3.  New York
4.  Atlanta
5.  Miami

NL Central

1.  Chicago
2.  Milwaukee-wc
3.  St. Louis
4.  Cincinnati
5.  Pittsburgh

NL West

1.  Los Angeles
2.  Colorado
3.  San Diego 
4.  Arizona
5.  San Francisco

AL Playoffs:

Wild Card Game: Boston over Cleveland

Division Series: Houston over Boston, New York over Minnesota

Championship Series: Houston over New York

NL Playoffs:

Wild Card Game: Milwaukee over Philadelphia

Division Series: Washington over Los Angeles, Milwaukee over Chicago

Championship Series: Milwaukee over Washington

World Series: Houston over Milwaukee

Awards Predictions That Will Be Wrong, Probably

AL MVP: Mike Trout

AL Cy Young: Chris Sale

AL Rookie of the Year: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

NL MVP: Juan Soto

NL Cy Young: Walker Buehler

NL Rookie of the Year: Fernando Tatis Jr.

It’s the early morning hours of October 13, 2017. Amanda is walking with me, back to my car, after the Washington Nationals’ most recent Game 5 collapse. My voice is hoarse from yelling. My hands hurt from clapping. And my head is full of the frustration that comes with emotionally investing yourself in sports teams.

And in this moment, for reasons I still don’t understand, Amanda decided that she wanted to become a sports fan.

“I want to follow an NBA team this season. Like, really follow them,” the conversation starts. I’m puzzled. “Like, you want to watch games?” “Yes,” she says. “Who should I root for?”

I give her a few options: The 76ers (eliminated early on because Eastern Time Zone makes it difficult, with work and dinner and all of that stuff, to tune in to the start of games), the Jazz, the Bucks, the Nuggets, and the Timberwolves.

“Okay, I’m going to do some research,” she says and I fully expect her to forget this whole conversation by the time we get back to the Fiat.

A few days later, Amanda declares that she’s narrowed her list down to the Bucks and the Timberwolves. She’s leaning Minnesota because she really likes what she’s read about Jimmy Butler, and she really dislikes what she’s read about the Bucks’ (then) coach Jason Kidd (see: domestic abuse). I endorse the Timberwolves decision and we make a plan to watch a game.

And we do. And then we watch another. And another. And on and on.

Last night, we watched our last Timberwolves game of the 2017-18 season. What I assumed would be a two-week hobby turned into a season-long devotion for Amanda. I’d estimate that we watched about 65 regular season games and each of these fairly predictable playoff ones with Houston. I have so many takeaways from my season spent with the Minnesota Timberwolves. Here they are in no particular order:

-Tom Thibodeau is a terrible in-game coach. His rotations make very little sense. I watched on a handful of occasions in the middle of the season as he played Karl-Anthony Towns, Taj Gibson, and Jimmy Butler in the 4th quarter of 20 point games. Each time he did it, it felt like watching someone drive an antique car blindfolded. You have this beautiful thing and you’re just going to use it wrong? It’s going to get ruined! And the fatigue was real down the stretch. Towns looked tired. And Jimmy’s only real saving grace, if you will, was a knee injury that forced him out of 17 games.

-Jimmy Butler is a treasure. If all he was was a great on-ball defender and a decent scorer, he’d be worth his salary tenfold. But he brings so much more. He can slash. He can shoot. He can defend four positions. He can handle the ball. And he can be the face of a franchise. Minnesota gave up a lot to get Jimmy. Zach LaVine has an enormously high ceiling in the NBA, Kris Dunn will be an above average point guard, and Lauri Markkanen (whom Chicago took with Minnesota’s traded first round draft pick) has the potential to be a transcendent player, in the mold of a Dirk Nowitzki. But Minnesota bet on “right now” with Jimmy and they won the pot. Watching him all season only made me more envious that he wasn’t a Boston Celtic.

-Andrew Wiggins is not a treasure. He signed a max contract extension prior to the start of this season, which will go into effect next season, paying him an AAV of about $28 million for the next 5 seasons. Minnesota will come to rue this signing when they have to choose between paying Jimmy or Karl-Anthony. And all of this for a guy who is often reluctant, and at times invisible, on the court. Wiggins’ 3-year similarity scores on basketball-reference.com are only funny if you’re not a Wolves fan. Matt Bonner. Loy Vaught. Junior Bridgeman. Nick Collison. And yes, I get that he’s 22 years old and there’s room for improvement and blah blah blah. At 22, I firmly believe he is who he is. He’s a subpar outside shooter and subpar one-on-one defender who operates in about 2nd gear all of the time. If watching Jimmy is a pleasure, watching Andrew is a chore.

-“Jeff Teague is garbage. He is awful.” were sentences I uttered nearly every single night. Bad passes, contested shots, sloppy runners in the lane, lackadaisical defense. Thib’s reliance on Teague over the steadier Tyus Jones was perhaps the most perplexing thing to me of this entire season. Well, second most. The most perplexing was…

-Marcus Georges-Hunt. When you spend a lot of time watching a team play, you find yourself becoming enamored with players who maybe aren’t quite as good as you think they are. And maybe MGH is one of those guys. Sure, he averaged less than 1.5 ppg this season and couldn’t knock down three point shots to save his life. But he can defend. And he’s a good shooter inside of the 3 point line (eFG% of 48% in limited time this season). And yet, Thibs refused to play a 24 year old with, at the very least, potential to be a useful defensive tool off the bench. And I think that did a soon-to-be cash strapped team a big disservice. MGH missed out on opportunities to play moderately meaningful minutes and learn the pro game because Tom Thibodeau has trust issues. That’s not good.

– Keita Bates-Diop. Recognizing that Thibs will, unfortunately, be back to coach this team next season and he’s never one to give playing time to young players (see: Georges-Hunt, Marcus and Jones, Tyus), I still would like to see Minnesota use their first round pick (which is Oklahoma City’s original pick) to draft Bates-Diop, someone I think will be instant offense off the bench for any number of playoff teams next season.

Those are just a few of my thoughts on this season. There are games I’ll remember. Like Minnesota losing late in the season to Memphis or early in the season to Phoenix. Or the barn-burner they played against the Cavs when LeBron put them away late in OT. I also have some thoughts on Karl-Anthony Towns that can largely be boiled down to “I honestly don’t think he’s nearly as good as his reputation and even with his youth, I’d rather build a team around Jimmy Butler than KAT, if I had to choose.”

All in all, though, I loved this experience. Sure, I didn’t get to watch nearly as many Celtics games this season as I may have liked. But I really enjoyed getting to teach Amanda some things about basketball. I enjoyed seeing Minnesota in person when they came to DC. And I especially enjoyed watching her experience fandom, the wins and the losses. And I enjoyed developing an attachment to the Wolves.

This morning, despite knowing the end result, Amanda watched the second half of last night’s elimination game, via DVR (we fell asleep in the 3rd quarter when Houston made a run that rendered the result more inevitable than it already was). I asked her why she was doing it and, if I’m going to boil down her response, it was “because I’m a fan.”

And now, I turn MAB over to Amanda for her thoughts on being a Wolves fan, in her words:

Last weekend, I played basketball for the first time in my life. I now fancy myself the Jimmy Butler of 5-foot tall, 33 year old Portuguese ladies who live in DC. I think that narrows it down enough to actually be accurate.

Becoming a sports fan again was fun and frustrating and all of the things it means to be a sports fan. I say again having grown up a Red Sox fan but, most of my adult life has been spent watching sports without a lot of investment in the outcome. Feeling the highs and lows of fandom during this NBA season were worth it, particularly for the way in which I chose the team.

Here are my takes on the Timberwolves that are not reflected in Jason’s thoughts above.

– Jamal Crawford will literally take a shot from anywhere just for the opportunity to take the shot. I guess something is better than nothing. But actually, I don’t think that makes you successful at basketball.
– Cole Aldridge is the best cheerleader the Timberwolves could ever ask for.
– I called Tyus “Ratface” for a most of the first half of the season. I now regret my criticism of his physical appearance, I don’t think he looks like a rat, I think he’s a valuable player who knows how to move well and is way better than Garbage Man Teague. And he seems like a nice young man.
– My attachment to reality television has made me want to know everything about these players’ lives to the point where I have basically created narratives. I think Gorgui has got a real wild streak in him for no reason at all.

Like I said, it’s nice to be a fan again and I’m looking forward to the continued failures of Thibs in the years to come.

This is the fourth installment of this endeavor and the 2017 edition will see a lot of changes. Bryce Harper is the only eligible player from the 2014 version who is a shoe-in to make this team. Missing the cut, because of the “25 by the last game of the regular season” rule are Mike Trout and Carlos Martinez.

Much can change in a few years in baseball. We sadly lost Yordano Ventura and the great Jose Fernandez within the past year. On a less tragic front, players like Rougned Odor and Manny Machado have largely regressed at the plate.

The purpose behind this project, I’ve found, is to look back a few years later and wonder things like, “Why did I think Ian Krol would be good?” and “Was there ever a point where Derek Norris was a better catcher than Sal Perez?”

And so, let’s skim this now and look back in two years.

The only real rule (besides the age requirement) is that for a player to be eligible at a position, they need to have played the majority of games in the 2017 season (at whatever level of baseball) at that position. Example: I love Xander Bogaerts and he’s played third base before. But he’s a shortstop now. So he has to compete with Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, etc.

CATCHER
Willson Contreras (Chicago Cubs): This is arguably the weakest position both in the Majors, but also in the Minors, with only 3 catchers on Keith Law’s midseason Top 50 prospect list (Insider required).

Statements about shallow talent pools aside, Contreras is a nice choice here. He has perhaps the strongest arm (and best snap throw) of anyone in the game behind the dish. At the plate, he’s got considerable pop for the position (.484 SLG as of this writing). And for a relatively inexperienced big league player (he’s played exactly 162 games), he’s not a horrific free swinger.

2017 bWAR: 2.5

FIRST BASEMAN
Cody Bellinger (Los Angeles Dodgers): No-brainers don’t get any more cranially vacant than this pick. The presumptive NL Rookie of the Year, at just 22 years old, has 26 home runs in just 325 plate appearances. And while you might expect a 22 year old rookie power hitter to lack plate discipline, Bellinger has an OBP of .351 (to go along with his +.600 SLG).

2017 bWAR: 2.6

SECOND BASEMAN
Jonathan Schoop (Baltimore Orioles): I never thought that Schoop would become a patient enough hitter to hold offensive value. And I definitely didn’t think he would become a potential 30+ HR guy (at 21 right now). And yet, last year, he hit 25 and this year, he’s on pace to well out-do that number. He’s still not walking as much as you’d like a hitter to, but you can’t argue with the production (.900 OPS). He barely makes the cutoff as he doesn’t turn 26 until mid-October.

2017 bWAR: 2.7

THIRD BASEMAN
Jose Ramirez (Cleveland Indians): The Indians called Ramirez up in 2013 as a 20 year old and he looked like the real deal in 14 plate appearances. Then 2014 happened. And 2015.

But then, Ramirez turned the corner. Maybe Cleveland promoted him too soon. Maybe the adjustments he made at the plate really made a difference. Whatever it is, Ramirez isn’t just the best 25 and under third baseman in baseball, he is the best player at the position, period. (RIP SPICEY!)

He hits for some power. He doesn’t strike out. He gets on base at a .383 clip and he steals some bases if you like that nonsense. And he’s a switch hitter who can actually hit from both sides of the plate. There’s nothing to dislike about Jose Ramirez.

2017 bWAR: 3.4

SHORTSTOP
Carlos Correa (Houston Astros): Before he went down with a thumb injury, an argument (a good one even) could be made that Correa was the guy to supplant Mike Trout as the AL MVP. He’s a 22 year old with a .400 OBP, 166 OPS+, and above average defense at a position that most think he’s too big to play.

2017 bWAR: 4.0

LEFT FIELD
Michael Conforto (New York Mets): Until very recently, the Mets’ inept, bumbling fool of a manager (Terry Collins. Hi Terry!) was platooning Conforto with assorted pieces of driftwood.

Conforto, for his part, has made it impossible for his incalculably bad manager to bench him this year. The All-Star has a .400+ OBP, 18 homers, and a 153 OPS+. And sure, defensively he is not great (to be generous), but the bat more than makes up for the negative dWAR.

2017 bWAR: 2.8

CENTER FIELD
Christian Yelich (Miami Marlins): At no point is Christian Yelich going to blow you away with his numbers. He’s simply just a really good hitter. The power is likely never going to develop, but his ability to hit to all fields and his patience at the plate (.362 OBP) make him a useful player in absolutely any lineup. And he’s versatile in the field. That is to say, he’s not a great defensive centerfielder….But anyway…

2017 bWAR: 1.4

RIGHT FIELD
Bryce Harper (Washington Nationals): With apologies to a certain RF in the Bronx and another one in Boston, Harper owns this spot until he’s no longer eligible.

Harper is producing at the MVP pace he set in 2015, after an injury plagued 2016 that saw him *only* hit 24 homers and produce to the tune of a 115 OPS+ as a 23 year old. Perhaps the most impressive thing about Harper is that while he swings out of his shoes more often than not, he’s drawing plenty of walks and has become a very good hitter against lefties, driving the ball to left field when needed (and hitting moon shots other times). He’s a joy to watch (all these guys are).

2017 bWAR: 4.6

DESIGNATED HITTER
Aaron Judge (New York Yankees): Remember kids, pitchers should never, ever hit. Who’d you rather see bat? Aaron Judge or Aaron Sanchez? Yes, it was fun when Bartolo Colon hit a homer. It’s less fun when he strikes out on three pitches.

On to Judge, who deserves every single bit of recognition and praise that he’s receiving.

In a 2016 cup of coffee, Judge looked overmatched, with a swiss cheese swing (lotta holes). This year, he’s transformed his entire swing into this masterpiece of quiet, soul-destroying power. His swing is so easy now, but generates the kind of power that I imagine only Josh Gibson and a non-drunk Babe Ruth were able to generate. And the numbers speak to that. .434 On-base. 180 OPS+. 32 home runs. The 25 year old rookie has the potential to hit 50 homers. And if he does that, he’s a lock to win the AL MVP.

2017 bWAR: 34 million (it’s actually 5.4)

BATTING ORDER

3B Jose Ramirez
SS Carlos Correa
RF Bryce Harper
DH Aaron Judge
1B Cody Bellinger
LF Michael Conforto
2B Jonathan Schoop
C Willson Contreras
CF Christian Yelich

BENCH PLAYERS

Gary Sanchez (Catcher/New York Yankees)
Francisco Lindor (Shortstop/Cleveland Indians)
Corey Seagar (Shortstop/Los Angeles Dodgers)
Kris Bryant (Third Baseman/Chicago Cubs)
Mookie Betts (Right Field/Boston Red Sox)

Yes, a 14 man offense defies the conventional norms of baseball, but what, are you going to leave Francisco Lindor off this team in favor of a 7th bullpen arm?

If I were to fudge around with my own rules to put the best team on the field, I’d move Conforto to CF and play either Bryant or Harper in LF (and then move Betts to RF if Harper is moving across the field). The defense would definitely suffer, but the offense would score 16 runs per game.

Having 2 shortstops might seem excessive, but Seager is big enough that third base is a perfectly appropriate position for him, as needed. And Bryant eventually profiles as a 1B anyway in my mind.

And yes, I’m well aware that this team lacks Miguel Sano, Andrew Benintendi, Manny Machado, and I’m sure many others that I’m forgetting. This just speaks to the offensive era that we live in. And this team doesn’t have a single prospect (Yoan Moncada, Rafael Devers) within sniffing distance. This is, in all the years I’ve done this exercise, the deepest offensive talent pool. Which brings us to this horrific transition…

PITCHING

Whereas the offensive portion of this team is a laundry list of guys who are already the best players at their positions, the pitching portion is much more about projection. Of the top 30 starting pitchers in bWAR, only 3 are eligible for this list. And two of those pitchers likely project as relievers long-term, at least according to the baseball minds whose insights I value the most.

For the below rotation, I’m not going to include 2017 WARs. In some cases, it will do them a disservice.

STARTING PITCHERS

Noah Syndergaard (SP/New York Mets)
Michael Fulmer (SP/Detroit Tigers)
Jose Berrios (SP/Minnesota Twins)
Jameson Taillon (SP/Pittsburgh Pirates)
Lance McCullers (SP/Houston Astros)

The above list is how I would pick them. McCullers might be my favorite pitcher in baseball, but he’s still really a two-pitch pitcher. Granted, both of those pitches (4-seam and curveball) are plus-pitches. But until he can throw his changeup with more consistency, he’ll have his doubters about his long-term sustainability as a starting pitcher.

Jameson Taillon is a great story, having battled back from injuries and cancer to rejoin the Pirates rotation and really, not miss a beat. He’s probably about a year and a half behind on development because of a 2014 torn UCL. That said, he’s got an ace-like arsenal and has the highest ceiling of anyone here not named Noah Syndergaard.

Jose Berrios is an undersized starting pitcher with a multi-pitch arsenal, who struggled mightily in his debut in 2016, but has really turned the corner in 2017. His strand rate is lower than where you’d like it to be (~72%, 71st out of those pitchers with 70+IP). I’d expect his K/9 rate to increase as he develops a better feel for his arsenal. Again, Berrios’ placement here goes back to projection.

Michael Fulmer, however, isn’t about projection. He is who he is. He gets a lot of ground ball outs. He doesn’t strike out a lot of hitters. Hell, his ERA and FIP are identical. But he’s a good pitcher without a lot of question marks. Do I think he’s a long term ace? No. But do I think he’s a rotational fixture for the next decade? I do.

Thor is the easiest choice of the bunch, injury aside. He’s a hoss. And he’s likely someone who will become more of a pitcher than a thrower. His arsenal is real and deep and his production tells the story of who he is. He’s the ace of this staff.

RELIEF PITCHERS
Luis Severino (RHP/New York Yankees)
Corey Knebel (RHP/Milwaukee Brewers)
Roberto Osuna (RHP/Toronto Blue Jays)
Archie Bradley (RHP/Arizona Diamondbacks)
Alex Claudio (LHP/Texas Rangers)
Cam Bedrosian (RHP/Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, California)

Ending with relief pitchers isn’t a good way to seal the deal. The guys you see here are all replaceable. Relief pitchers are the least reliable of any player in baseball. Today, Alex Claudio is a groundball-enducing machine. Tomorrow, who knows?

One note that I’d like to end on: Luis Severino. Severino is in the Cy Young conversation in the American League. Chris Sale is likely going to win the award, but that shouldn’t take away from how good Severino has been. However, he is one of the two aforementioned projected relief pitchers (along with McCullers). The reason why Severino is here instead of McCullers is because McCullers’ second pitch (his curveball, which he actually uses more than his fastball) is an objectively better pitch than Severino’s slider. Each use their changeup about 10% of the time, just for fun. Ultimately, I’d rather have a fastball/slider guy pitching long-relief out of the bullpen than a fastball/curveball guy.

Two fun notes: Robbie Ray missed out on this list by one day. Cam Bedrosian made it by one day.

Think I got something wrong? Hate me in general? Tweet me @jason_botelho or comment below. Thanks as always for reading.

Last September, I made the decision to cease watching college sports. Since the time I was a small child, I lived and breathed college football and college basketball. But over time, given my very progressive leanings, I began having a harder and harder time rationalizing my support for an institution as corrupt as the NCAA.

Ignoring college football was a challenge that got easier as the season progressed and by the time the college basketball season began, it was pretty easy to forego watching the exploitation of 19 year old black men for the financial gains of old white men. (I promise this won’t be about politics any more)

NBA Draft night was always a fun night for me. I didn’t just watch college basketball. I studied the game. I had informed opinions on 6’5″ guards from Temple. No one would ever mistake me for a scout. I would never claim to have that expertise. But, to toot my own horn, I saw guys like Kawhi Leonard and Damian Lillard long before the Draft and felt strongly that each would be franchise players.

But here we are tonight. Most of the guys who are going to be picked tonight, I have never seen play a basketball game. I’ve never watched Ben Simmons, Brandon Ingram, Jaylen Brown, etc. I remember watching Buddy Hield and being impressed with his range and I remember Kris Dunn at Providence being a great defender. But for all intents and purposes, Ben Simmons might as well be Ante Zizic to me.

And you know what? That’s really fun.

The absence of college basketball in my life brought me closer to the NBA than I’ve probably ever been. I’m excited to see these guys who I’ve read a lot about in the past few months play. I’m excited to see where they go. And, as a Celtics fan, I’m really excited to see what Danny Ainge can pull off.

Some loose thoughts:

1.) Boston offers Philadelphia this year’s 3rd, 16th, and 23rd picks, along with Brooklyn’s first round pick next year for the #1 overall pick (and drafts Brandon Ingram). Who says no? Does Philadelphia really pass up the opportunity to have the top two picks in next season’s draft? Does Boston sell all of their valuable assets for one 19 year old? I don’t see a reason why either team says “no” to that. And as a Celtics fan, I’d be thrilled with it.

2.) I’m fascinated by Marquese Chriss. From what I’ve read, he was an absolute disaster as a freshman at Washington. And now, I’m seeing him as a Top 5 pick. This is why I love the NBA Draft.

3.) Ben Simmons seems like a fascinating basketball player. A 6’10” point forward in the mold of Kevin Durant. Just, you know, if Kevin Durant couldn’t shoot. But he can pass so that’s something. I don’t love the idea of Philadelphia drafting another 6’10” player. I don’t understand what they’re doing.

4.) The Lakers getting Brandon Ingram with the second pick makes me very nervous. That’s a guy who is destined to be a great NBA player.

5.) Realistically, if Boston stays as 3, I’d be more than happy with any of Hield, Dunn, or Bosnian PF Dragan Bender.

6.) Buddy Hield’s suit should win awards.

7.) I’ve read a lot about how this is a weak draft. I disagree a bit. I look at this draft as having a superstar talent (Ingram), a potential all-star (Hield), and a number of really good players who will have long careers as role players. I”ve written before that I think NBA roster construction is fairly easy. Unless you have a LeBron James, you need to do what San Antonio has done and fill holes. Wing defenders, rebounders, outside shooters, passers. If you can fill those four holes, you’re going to be a playoff team. So guys like Denzel Valentine and Tyler Ulis has a real place in the NBA and would be much higher picks if I’m in a draft room than the typical “no role, but he could be GREAT” prospect.

8.) I’m fascinated by Thon Maker. I’m not sure that he’ll ever be anything in the NBA. But if he’s there when Boston or Toronto are using their 3rd and 2nd first round picks, respectively, why not take a flier on a guy who is as boom-or-bust as anyone we’ve seen in as long as I can remember.

In looking at my stats, I found that a large chunk of my viewership comes from Brazil.  I don’t know what that means, other than that I’m probably not writing about the right topics (or in the right language). With that, here’s my English language snapshot NFL preview for the 2015 season:

AFC East
1. Miami Dolphins 11-5
2. Buffalo Bills 8-8
3. New England Patriots 8-8
4. New York Jets 5-11

AFC North
1.Pittsburgh Steelers 11-5
2. Baltimore Ravens 10-6
3. Cincinnati Bengals 8-8
4. Cleveland Browns 3-13

AFC South
1. Indianapolis Colts 13-3
2. Jacksonville Jaguars 9-7
3. Houston Texans 7-9
4. Tennessee Titans 2-14

AFC West
1. San Diego Chargers 10-6
2. Kansas City Chiefs 8-8
3. Denver Broncos 7-9
4. Oakland Raiders 4-12

AFC Wild Card Round
San Diego defeats Jacksonville
Pittsburgh defeats Baltimore

AFC Divisional Round
Indianapolis defeats San Diego
Pittsburgh defeats Miami

AFC Championship
Pittsburgh defeats Indianapolis

NFC East
1. Dallas Cowboys 10-6
2. New York Giants 9-7
3. Philadelphia Eagles 8-8
4. Washington Redskins 1-15

NFC North
1. Green Bay Packers 9-7
2. Minnesota Vikings 9-7
3. Detroit Lions 7-9
4. Chicago Bears 5-11

NFC South
1. Atlanta Falcons 10-6
2. New Orleans Saints 8-8
3. Carolina Panthers 6-10
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2-14

NFC West
1. St. Louis Rams 12-4
2. Arizona Cardinals 10-6
3. Seattle Seahawks 8-8
4. San Francisco 49ers 4-12

NFC Wild Card
Minnesota defeats Atlanta
Arizona defeats Green Bay

NFC Divisional Round
St. Louis defeats Minnesota
Arizona defeats Dallas

NFC Championship
Arizona defeats St. Louis

Super Bowl Fifty
Pittsburgh defeats Arizona

Last year, in an act of pure apathy, I wrote probably my shortest blog post ever. The post was my preview of the 2014 college football season. In it, I incorrectly picked Oregon to beat Florida State in the national championship and (correctly) Marcus Mariota to win the Heisman. I went out on no real limbs, except with South Carolina making the playoff, which they, um, didn’t. But let’s move on from that.

This season’s post will be slightly more exhaustive. For that I am sorry. But I can’t help but be slightly more excited about this college football season because the race is wide open.

It’s just that “the race” is the race to lose to Ohio State in the National Championship game.

Armed with their third-string quarterback, Ohio State dismantled Wisconsin to win the Big 14 last season and sneak into the first ever college football playoff. From there, they easily dispatched with Alabama and Oregon, looking at times like an NFL team scrimmaging Elon University.

So talent-laden at the quarterback position are the Buckeyes that this offseason, their former All-Conference quarterback and Davey O’Brien Award finalist Braxton Miller had to switch positions to wide receiver.

The Buckeyes quarterback job will be won by either junior Cardale Jones, who led Ohio State to their stunning playoff victories, or sophomore JT Barrett who was excellent prior to the injury that opened the door for Cardale Jones.

I think at the end of the day, though Urban Meyer would probably prefer the more mobile Barrett, he’ll go with the better quarterback in Jones. Really, he can’t go wrong with either guy.

And if the embarrassment of riches at the quarterback position weren’t enough in Columbus, the Buckeyes bring back Heisman candidate Ezekiel Elliott at running back and potential top overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft (unless Jones gets taken ahead of him), defensive end Joey Bosa, along with preseason All-American safety Vonn Bell. No team can match what Urban Meyer has assembled in Columbus.

Are there roadblocks along the way? Of cour….Actually no. Ohio State’s schedule is laughably easy. Unlike Alabama in previous years, the defending champs won’t have to travel to Auburn, Baton Rouge, Oxford, or College Station. Instead, they’ll travel to Blacksburg, Bloomington, Piscataway, Champaign-Urbana, and Ann Arbor.

Realistically, the only hiccup could come against Michigan State in the penultimate game of the regular season, but that game will occur in Columbus. And sure, Jim Harbaugh might have assembled some kind of wunder-team at Michigan, but I think that will take a couple seasons. And if you think that Virginia Tech’s win over Ohio State in 2014 means anything a year later, I’d like to place a friendly wager on that game and rob you and your family of a satisfying financial future.

Who Can Challenge Ohio State?
No one. I already told you that. Why can’t you listen?

Who Can Lose to Ohio State in the National Championship?
In some order: Baylor, TCU, Auburn, USC, Florida State, the winner of the October 3 game between Alabama and Georgia, and Clemson.

Let’s look at each case:

Baylor
The only question is, “What quarterback will slot into an easy-to-run system filled with athletic receivers who are YAC machines?” Once that question is answered, Baylor should run the table this season with an experienced, improved defense led by human destroyer Shawn Oakman.

TCU
Gary Patterson returns the Heisman front-runner in Trevone Boykin, but an inexperienced defense. Yes, this team absolutely destroyed Ole Miss in their bowl game, but they won’t get to face Jim Bob Levi Bo Wallace at quarterback every week this season. The offense will put up points at a rapid pace, but I don’t expect the defense to be as suffocating as they were when we last saw them. The entire season for both of these schools comes down to the de-facto Big TwelveTen championship on November 27 in Fort Worth.

Auburn
All things considered, a fairly pedestrian schedule, with only LSU (a team that will struggle to score 14 points a game despite having one of the best running backs in the country) on the road. Jeremy Johnson should prove himself to be a more capable quarterback than Nick Marshall, who led Auburn to their improbable BCS Championship game appearance in the 2013 season.

USC
Someone is coming out of the Pac-12 and it’s down to USC, UCLA, the Arizona schools, and Oregon (Nearly half the conference). USC has the most talent on both sides of the ball, so despite their difficult schedule that sees them traveling to Eugene, Tempe, Rehab possibly (in the case of coach Steve Sarkisian) and South Bend, I’m taking them as the best bet to escape from what will be the most exciting conference to watch in college football this season. That said, I see a lot of 10-2 and 9-3 teams in the Pac-12. Which means I don’t necessarily see anyone getting into the Playoff.

Florida State
Lots of talent, none of the discretion, morals, self-awareness, or social graces. Florida State is back on the map!

Alabama/Georgia
I’m back and forth on this one. Neither are likely to get great quarterback play. Georgia has the best all-around player in running back Nick Chubb, but Alabama has an All-American run stuffer in A’Shawn (?) Robinson. Both teams will still have to play Auburn, and in the case of Georgia, will likely have to play one of the Alabama schools twice.

Clemson
I mean, Clemson isn’t actually going to get into the playoff. Easy schedule and talented quarterback aside, c’mon. This is Clemson.

What About Horses? That Are Dark?
There can always be a 2014 TCU that gets close or a 2013 Auburn that gets there or that random year when Kansas and Missouri were in the Big XII and traded weeks as the number one team in the country.

(An aside: seriously, Kansas’ football program. Kansas.Todd Reesing, come back and save the Jayhawks!)

So who can surprise us this year?
Here are the five teams that could make a run but will all likely finish around 8-4 and play in the Alamo Bowl. All of them. At the same time!!!!:

Washington, Georgia Tech, Tennessee, Nebraska, and Arkansas.

What Will The Playoff Look Like
Ohio State (#1) over Auburn (#4)
Baylor (#2) over Georgia (#3)

(Note: I think a one-loss (to Auburn) Georgia team beats a previously undefeated Auburn in the SEC Championship game, seeing both teams sneak in ahead of #5 TCU who will have lost at home to Baylor by 2 touchdowns, for their only loss of the season.)

And, well, you know how this ends.

Heisman Trophy
Here are a list of players that I would say have a chance to win the Heisman this season:

Trevone Boykin (QB/TCU)
Cardale Jones (QB/Ohio State)
JT Barrett (QB/Ohio State)
Ezekiel Elliott (RB/Ohio State)
Nick Chubb (RB/Georgia)
Leonard Fournette (RB/LSU)
Duke Williams (WR/Auburn)
Everett Golson (QB/Florida State)
Malik Zaire (QB/Notre Dame)
Joey Bosa (DE/Ohio State)
Shawn Oakman (DE/Baylor)
Myles Jack (LB/RB/UCLA)
Christian McCaffrey (RB/Stanford)

That’s a lot of players. Much like the race to lose to Ohio State, the Heisman race might too be a race to lose to an Ohio State player. Right now, I’ll take Cardale Jones to win the Heisman. What I saw (what we all saw) last year was stunning from him. He looked like a professional quarterback running really good college defenses into the ground. It’s risky to bank on a guy who hasn’t technically won a starting job yet, but I’d take the risk on Jones.

The team that drafts Jameis Winston (and it’ll probably be Tampa Bay) will live to rue that decision. I envision a mixture of Tim Couch and JaMarcus Russell in Winston. Do I hold a wealth of animosity towards Winston? Of course. He showed no remorse for his alleged sexual assault. He showed no growth when he stood on a table in the middle of campus and yelled a misogynistic, stupid Internet meme? And he showed that he just doesn’t care about the rules when he stole crab legs from a supermarket and then, recently, came up with some unintelligible story about said crab legs.

The crab leg incident on its own is comical. The Internet meme thing is just a stupid college kid being stupid. But the sexual assault allegation is repugnant, when combined with the way that he and his university handled the situation.

I’ll root against Jameis Winston as vociferously as I can. And I think he’ll do a lot to help that on the field.

What I see in Winston is a sloppy quarterback with questionable athleticism who makes very poor decisions outside of the pocket. But he’s a “winner” you say? So was Craig Krenzel. And Ken Dorsey. And Chris Weinke.

On the other side of the quarterback dime, we have Marcus Mariota. By every account, a great teammate. Also a winner. A very accurate quarterback on the move and one who makes smart decisions in the pocket. But “the system,” you say. Have you seen the offenses teams are running in the NFL? This isn’t Bill Walsh’s National Football League.

There is no Andrew Luck in the 2015 Draft. But if you’re a quarterback-needy team (and note, I don’t think Tampa Bay is because I think Mike Glennon is a perfectly adequate bridge to a better QB in 2016 (Cardale Jones)) Mariota is the clear and obvious choice for my eyes.

All of that said, Tampa Bay is going to draft Jameis Winston first overall. And Marcus Mariota will go second overall to whomever slots in to that second pick (whether it be Tennessee or the team that trades Tennessee their future).

After that, I’m looking at a draft that will be reminiscent of the 2013 one, where the top picks have yet to make any sort of impact.

PLAYERS I LIKE

Amari Cooper (WR/Alabama): Comical, it is, that people are talking about Kevin White v. Cooper. White is a very high upside prospect out of West Virginia, looking to follow in the long line of Dana Holgorsen-coached WRs to go on to great success in the NFL, including…and also… I mean, Tavon Austin? Donnie Avery? Holgorsen’s system allows WRs to put up great numbers and White, in addition, has the measurables. But he’s raw. Cooper is refined and has a very achievable ceiling of Pro Bowl WR. Sure, Kevin White might become a Hall of Fame type player. But I’m better on no. And I’m betting on Cooper.

Leonard Williams (DT/USC): There’s not much to dislike about Williams. He’s an enormous presence on the defensive line and should plug in on Week 1 for whatever horrible team drafts him (likely Oakland at 4).

Trae Waynes (CB/Michigan State): A big, physical corner who has speed, can cover one-on-one and can tackle? Yes, sign me up for that please. Especially in a passing league. Do not understand why he’s a projected mid-first rounder and not a top 10 guy.

Shaq Thompson (S/Washington): Versatile, hard-hitter. Could wind up as a linebacker, a la Brian Urlacher, who played safety in college at New Mexico.

Landon Collins (S/Alabama): I like safeties. Especially supremely physical ones. Collins is not going to go one-on-one with Rob Gronkowski. But he might take Julian Edelman’s head off. So that has to count for something.

PLAYERS I DON’T LIKE

The rest of the first round, basically. If I’m looking to bet on a sure thing, I take the guys above. If I’m hoping that a supremely talented, off-the-field mess will work out, I draft Shane Ray (DE/Missouri), Dorial Green-Beckham (WR/Oklahoma…even though he didn’t actually play there), and Randy Gregory (DE/Nebraska). And if you’re just looking to hit the number right in roulette, well, enjoy the rest of the draft, my friends.

LATE ROUND SLEEPERS WHO I THINK WILL BE USEFUL NFL PLAYERS

QB: Pass. But I will predict that the Eagles will either draft or sign Bryan Bennett from Southeastern Louisiana. Also, I like Brett Hundley, but he’s not a “late round sleeper.”

RB: TJ Yeldon (Alabama). I mean, I’ve predicted that he’d win the Heisman Trophy every year since 1998, so I might as well keep riding the horse that hasn’t won me anything yet, right?

WR: Stefon Diggs (Maryland). Could catch on as a kick returner/punt returner and serve as a decent fourth receiving option. Likely to be a 6th or 7th round pick.

DL: Zack Hodges (Harvard). Loved watching him at the Combine. Great motor. Quick. Physical. Would serve as a three-down lineman.

LB: Kyle Emmanuel (North Dakota State). Played End in college but could move to linebacker (read: should) in the NFL. Another guy I loved watching at the Combine. Was a dominant player at NDSU.

DB: Ifo Ekpre-Olomu (Oregon): Had his ACL not torn at the end of the season, Ekpre-Olomu would have been a first round draft pick. That’s reason enough to take a flier on him, which I would imagine Chip Kelly will do as he attempts to recreate the Oregon Ducks in Southeastern Pennsylvania.

Sunday marks the beginning of the Major League Baseball season, aka the Longest Slog. As much as I truly love the game of baseball, I can’t help but look at the schedule as a whole as a daunting challenge. On a night-by-night basis, it’s refreshing. One game at a time. But as a whole, it’s an exhausting exercise. By the time August rolls around, everyone seems to be playing at half-speed. Attrition takes over and you wind up with the likes of Aaron Harang and Chien-Ming Wang making spot starts for World Series contenders (assuming both of them, currently with the Phillies and Braves, get traded).

Before burnout sets in, though, it is a time to rejoice and celebrate the return of spring and life and hot dogs and $8.75 Coors Lights. Unless you’re a fan of the Braves, Diamondbacks, Phillies, Twins, or Rockies.

A quick look at each division and the some thoughts:

AL East

1. Toronto Blue Jays

2. Boston Red Sox * WC

3. Baltimore Orioles

4. New York Yankees

5. Tampa Bay Rays

An absolutely bizarre division without a single balanced team. The Red Sox might have the best offense in the game, but probably the thinnest rotation of anyone in this division. Tampa has some high upside pitchers and an atrocious offense. The Yankees have the offense, but no pitching and the Orioles have a slightly better version of what the Yankees have. Toronto, a team that hasn’t made the playoffs since the first year of the Clinton presidency, is the most balanced, especially with young prospects Aaron Sanchez and Daniel Norris poised for very good seasons. I like them and Boston to advance to the playoffs from this division.

AL Central

1. Detroit Tigers

2. Kansas City Royals

3. Cleveland Indians

4. Chicago White Sox

5. Minnesota Twins

The Tigers’ offense is the best whole unit in this division and I think that’s what gets them to the playoffs (with a swift exit). Losing Max Scherzer in free agency and now Justin Verlander to a triceps injury only puts more pressure on David Price, but with the lineup Brad Ausmus can trot out there, a weak rotation and an incredibly shaky bullpen are still better than what’s happening elsewhere. Kansas City misses out on the playoffs due in large part to the continued managerial shortcomings of Ned Yost and a rotation lacking a David Price or even an Anibal Sanchez. If you’re combining the perfect team, but only from this division, you take Cleveland’s manager, Detroit’s lineup, Kansas City’s bullpen, Chicago’s rotation (if/when it has Carlos Rodon in it), and absolutely nothing from the Minnesota Twins, except maybe their pretty ballpark.

AL West

1. Seattle Mariners

2. Oakland Athletics * WC

3. Houston Astros

4. Los Angeles Angels (aka The Angels Angels of Anaheim)

5. Texas Rangers

I had to talk myself out of the Houston Astros as the AL’s second Wild Card team. I love the youth in their lineup with George Springer. I love the balance of contact/power (Jose Altuve/Evan Gattis and Chris Carter) in the lineup. Defensively, they’ve got range in the outfield. They have the best bullpen in the division thanks to the signings of Pat Neshak and Luke Gregerson (to go along with Tony Sipp and Chad Qualls). And they’ve got the most underrated ace in baseball in Dallas Keuchel, who finished last season in the American League with a sub-3.00 ERA, a FIP of 3.21, and a WHIP of just 1.17. Add to that the youth of Asher Wojeciechowski and Mark Appel, once he makes his debut and likely replaces Fausto Carmona in the rotation, and I really think you’ve got the makings for a very solid baseball team and one that might contend sooner than the SI prediction of 2017.

But given all of that, the Mariners are the most well-rounded team in this division and possess both the best starting rotation and the best all-around lineup. Say what you will about him, but the addition of Nelson Cruz will be a boon to that offense. Oakland sneaks into the Wild Card game after an offseason of strange rebuilding/reshuffling. Do I think the A’s are better today than they were last year at this time? No. But do I think the Angels and Rangers are worse? I do, as both of those teams lack the starting pitching (in both depth and quality) to really make an impact.

AL Playoffs

Wild Card Game: Boston over Oakland

ALDS: Seattle over Detroit, Boston over Toronto

ALCS: Boston over Seattle

NL East

1. Washington Nationals

2. Miami Marlins *WC

3. New York Mets

4. Atlanta Braves

5. Philadelphia Phillies

Atlanta and Philadelphia aren’t worth talking about. The Marlins and Mets are worth talking about in tandem. With Miami, I firmly believe that a healthy Jose Fernandez would be the difference between them just sneaking into the Wild Card game and winning the division. And yes, I think Miami is making the playoffs this year. There’s too much balance in their lineup for them not to. And I love the addition of Mat Latos to the rotation. For the Mets, there’s not enough offense to contend. The pitching, especially with the return of Matt Harvey, will be the show in Queens. But if you think that bullpen and a lineup that trots out Wilmer Flores and Juan Lagares every day is going to get to the postseason, you’ve got another thing coming.

Washington is every person’s favorite to win this division and for good reason. Nobody is going to contend with a rotation that sees Doug Fister filling out the #5 spot in the rotation (in a division that sees: Dillon Gee, Wandy Rodriguez, Jarred Cosart, and Sean O’Sullivan as the other #5 starters). The health of the lineup (already a question) will be key. The real test though should be the playoffs and how manager Matt Williams develops and adapts. A large quantity of the blame for the 2014 playoff loss to the Giants can be placed at Williams’ feet. He’s got an arguably better club in 2015. Second year or not, it’s time to do something with that club.

NL Central

1. St. Louis Cardinals

2. Milwaukee Brewers

3. Pittsburgh Pirates

4. Chicago Cubs

5. Cincinnati Reds

The 2-5 of this division could also be described as “the logjam towards mediocrity.” I would doubt that more than 8 games would separate these teams. I expect St. Louis to run away with this division by August. For those arguing that the Cubs are a contender, I’d ask them to take a look at their bullpen, for example, and explain to me how they’re going to close out games for the likes of Jason Hammel and Kyle Hendricks. I know that Jon Lester is there. And I know that Joe Maddon is at the helm. And I know and am very excited for the arrival of Kris Bryant. But lets pump the brakes a bit. Milwaukee and Pittsburgh are interchangeable: lineups capable of winning games/rotations with question marks at the back end (and, with Francisco Liriano in Pittsburgh, the front end). I give the slightest of nods to the Brewers, though I don’t expect either team to make it very far into October.

NL West

1. San Diego Padres

2. Los Angeles Dodgers *WC

3. San Francisco Giants

4. Colorado Rockies

5. Arizona Diamondbacks

No one’s offseason was more interesting than the deal-a-minute Padres, who completely revamped their team and did so in a way where I think they can contend for a World Series this year in what is a very strange Major League Baseball landscape, where the presumptive favorite (Washington) has a number of question marks. And San Diego could quietly get back a big piece if Cory Luebke returns in mid-July as expected from TJ surgery. Going into the playoffs, presumably, with their lineup and a four-man rotation of James Shields, Andrew Cashner, Luebke, and Tyson Ross could allow San Diego to make some real noise.

The only other contender in this division is the Dodgers, who just don’t have the starting pitching depth that you need for a 162 game slog. Of course, they’re much better than San Diego at the top with Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, but at the back end, they’re currently relying on Brett Anderson to hold up. Brett Anderson, who hasn’t started 25 games in a season since 2009 when he was 21 years old. In fact, since 2009, he’s started a combined 49 games. When he pitches, he’s a good pitcher. But he doesn’t actually pitch. And so beyond him, the Dodgers will have to rely on prospect Zach Lee or Joe Wieland or Juan Nicasio, especially while Hyun Jin Ryu misses time with an injury. Offensively, the Dodgers replace Kemp with the very exciting Joc Pederson who I expect to have a big impact on the club. Elsewhere, they’ll rely on the new up-the-middle combo of Howie Kendrick and Jimmy Rollins to stabilize that area defensively and provide more on-base ability than Dee Gordon and a cast of others were able to.

It’s an odd year, so we won’t talk about the Giants.

Bringing up the rear are the Diamondback and the Rockies. For fun, let’s combine the two teams and see what that team would look like:

Rotation:

Jorge De La Rosa

Jon Gray

Josh Collmenter

Jeremy Hellickson

Kyle Kendrick

Catcher: Wilin Rosario

First Baseman: Paul Goldschmidt

Second Baseman: Aaron Hill

Shortstop: Troy Tulowitzki

Third Baseman: Nolan Arenado

Right Fielder: Carlos Gonzalez

Center Fielder: Charlie Blackmon

Left Fielder: Corey Dickerson

I’m not even sure that team would be able to win this division.

NL Playoffs

Wild Card Game: Los Angeles over Miami

NLDS: St. Louis over Los Angeles, Washington over San Diego

NLCS: St. Louis over Washington

World Series

St. Louis over Boston (4-2)

Baseball’s most-well rounded team gets revenge for 2004 and 2013

AL Awards

AL MVP: Jose Bautista (OF/Toronto Blue Jays)

AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez (SP/Seattle Mariners)

AL Rookie of the Year: Daniel Norris (SP/Toronto Blue Jays)

NL Awards

NL MVP: Giancarlo Stanton (OF/Miami Marlins)

NL Cy Young: Adam Wainwright (SP/St. Louis Cardinals)

NL Rookie of the Year: Joc Pederson (OF/LA Dodgers)

Five Trades That Should Happen Sooner Rather Than Later:

Philadelphia trades Cole Hamels to Los Angeles Dodgers for Julio Urias and Corey Seager (A lot to give up for the Dodgers in their two best prospects, but Hamels seems like he’d be a great fit in Southern California, even more so than in Boston. Meanwhile, a terrible farm system in Philly gets a huge upgrade in two very high-upside prospects.)

Washington trades Jordan Zimmermann to Boston Red Sox for Mookie Betts, Matt Barnes, and Trey Ball (Nowhere near the pitching upside that the Phillies would get for Hamels in Urias. That said, Ball and Barnes are former first-round picks who could use a change of scenery. Betts would give the Nationals the second baseman they’ve lacked since Jose Vidro and Zimmermann would give Boston the ace they so desperately could use. Zimmermann is not coming back to Washington after this season and with Tanner Roark wasting away in the bullpen, I see no reason why the Nats can’t stay focused on this year while looking toward the future.)

Atlanta trades Craig Kimbrel to Detroit for Devon Travis and Kevin Ziomek (Atlanta gets a middle infielder (the Tigers top prospect, blocked by Ian Kinsler) for their future and a 23 year old pitching prospect and the Tigers get an actual human relief pitcher)

Colorado trades Troy Tulowtizki to New York Mets for Noah Syndergaard, Brandon Nimmo, Dilson Herrera, and Rafael Montero (The Mets offense gets a huge upgrade, their Major League club gets no worse, they still have Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, and Zack Wheeler going forward, and they have baseball’s best left-side of the infield. Meanwhile Colorado gets to actually rebuild from the ground up and gets themselves out of Tulo’s expensive deal. When you’re not going anywhere, like the Rockies, it’s time to go somewhere)

Colorado trades Carlos Gonzalez to Seattle Mariners for Alex Jackson and Edwin Diaz (The Mariners can afford to bolster their lineup and what better place than replacing Dustin Ackley in left with CarGo. Do his home/away splits scare me a little? Sure. But Colorado isn’t a tiny park and he could serve as a useful doubles hitter in the similarly vast Safeco Field. Meanwhile, Colorado gets a stud outfield prospect in Alex Jackson and a still raw 21 year old starter in Diaz to add to a crop of young talent that would include Jon Gray, Eddie Butler, and Noah Syndergaard at the top end.)

…because you can have a team name be a racial slur and you can beat your partner into a lack of consciousness, but you better not be gay or smoke pot.

It feels like ages since the NFL was on our collective radar. Not a day has passed since the Super Bowl where I haven’t found myself wishing that some story would pop up, whether about an owner, player, coach, or draft prospect, that could dominate the sports landscape, if only for one news cycle. To detail to you the hours (probably days) that I have lost, laying in bed, wishing that we could spend months debating the quarterback competition for an inevitably 4-12 football team, would be more laborious for you than reading this paragraph.