2014 College Football Preview: An Exhaustive, One Paragraph Look At The Season To Come

As we collectively mourn the death of the BCS, I offer you my predictions for the “playoff” in college football. In one game, I’ll take Oregon over South Carolina. In the other game, I’ll take Florida State over Oklahoma. And in the Championship, I’ll take Oregon sparing us from having to watch Jameis Winston be happy again. 

Bonus Paragraph!!!

Marcus Mariota will win the Heisman Trophy. 

 

2014-15 Barclays Premier League Preview

Though it seems like the Barclay’s Premier League season just ended (because it did), this Saturday will mark its official return at 7:45 a.m. EDT when Manchester United host Swansea City at Old Trafford. The opening weekend does not provide us with many great matchups on paper, though it rarely does. But the opening weekend and the season at large do provide a wealth of story lines. In no particular order and by no means a complete list:

 

1.) Can Manchester City repeat as Premier League Champions? YES

2.) Does Liverpool stand a chance without Luis Suarez? NOT REALLY

3.) How hungry is Luis Suarez right now and can you let me know his general proximity to my arm? PROBABLY VERY. THANKFULLY IN SPAIN.

4.) Will Louis Van Gaal transform Manchester United? YES, BUT GIVE IT TIME

5.) Will Southhampton be capable of fielding a full roster? BARELY

6.) Wait, so it’s pronounced “Lester?” I GUESS.

7.) Can Mauricio Pochettino do at Tottenham what he did last year at Southampton, with more seasoned talent, and make a run at the Champions League? YES.

8.) Drogba? Really? LOL

9.) Now that they’ve finally spent money, where does Everton stand? A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE TOP, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE

10.) How will we survive without Norwich City’s yellow kits on a Saturday morning? I DON’T KNOW. I JUST DON’T KNOW.

 

If you read last year’s BPL preview, you know that only a handful of teams can win the league trophy, a bunch of teams exist to play spoiler, and the others fight to avoid being relegated, as Fulham, Cardiff City, and Norwich City were last year. This might not make the BPL sound very exciting and at times, it’s frankly not. Manchester City won the league crown last year despite losing matches along the way to the likes of Cardiff City and only spending a total of 15 days during the season in first place. This isn’t college football where every game matters. To say otherwise would be a lie.

That said, the games that do matter, really matter. Every match between the top 7 clubs (Arsenal, Chelsea, Everton, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, and Tottenham) is a must-watch match. And even more than last year, those seven teams come into 2014-15 rather evenly placed. But before we get to them, let’s talk about the other 13 teams briefly.

 

TRAVELING THAT LONELY ROAD TO THE SKYBET CHAMPIONSHIP LEAGUE

20. Burnley

Their previous trip to the Premier League ended after just one season. With the talent they have in place, I expect that to happen again.

19. Southampton

This pains me, because Southampton had built something so entertaining, so refreshing, and so good on the south coast only to let nearly every piece of that slip away, to be replaced by Ryan Bertrand. I’m not a Southampton fan, but that was a team to root for.

18. Crystal Palace

Originally my 8th place team, the sudden departure this week of manager Tony Pulis drops Palace into the relegation zone. Pulis saved them from a quick departure last year and made them relevant. Without him, Palace were and will be punchless.

 

CUTTING IT REAL CLOSE

17. West Bromwich Albion

The Burger King of Premier League teams. Never the worst, but never very enjoyable.

16. Swansea City

In a slow downward trend towards inevitable relegation.

15. Sunderland

Aka Jozy and the Black Cats. Sunderland always find a way to make it interesting. And then they go and beat Chelsea at Stamford Bridge and change the entire landscape of the season. It happened last year and could happen again.

 

THE OTHER NEW GUYS, SO LET’S BE NICE TO THEM

14. Leicester City

The money is certainly not there unlike their partner in this category, but I really love their badge and it’s their first time in the modern Premier League, so lets cut them a break.

13. Queens Park Rangers

Forever one of the most frustrating teams in English football, QPR has the money and the players to be a spoiler, but consistently underachieve. This is a roster that features Loic Remy (a capable goalscorer), Rio Ferdinand (one of England’s most decorated central defenders, albeit in the twilight of his career), Julio Cesar (Brazil’s starting GK), and a handful of other players, all somewhat aged, but many of whom who have had success in their careers.

 

NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM DISAPPEARING OR BEING A SPOILER

12. Stoke City

They don’t win with attractive football. In fact, they rarely win. But they play a smart defensive style that keeps them afloat and have the advantage of playing in one of the toughest road stadiums in the BPL.

11. Aston Villa

A healthy Christian Benteke will make a world of difference in this attack. Expect him back by October.

10. West Ham United

A couple of nice transfers/loans, the highlight of which is Carl Jenkinson from Arsenal, improve a club that floundered at the end of last season.

THE SPOILERS

9. Hull City

A really well-balanced roster that performed better than expectations (at least mine) last season with a couple of nice additions (including a full season of Nikica Jelavic at striker).

8.  Newcastle United

Aka The Alan Pardew Project. On paper, Newcastle should be in this spot every year, however, much like QPR, inconsistent play seems to hamper them. That said, of the non-contenders, this is the most talented roster all-around, with depth off the bench and skill in the XI. A sneak attack into the Top 7 is highly unlikely, but would not be a total shock.

 

THE CONTENDERS

7. Everton

The signing of Romelu Lukaku has been largely criticized because of the sheer dollar amount spent by the Toffees, a club that has been historically unwilling to spend large sums of money on star or potential-star players. I am not one of the people criticizing such a move. Lukaku is only 21 and coming off a season where he, at times, was a dominant striker while on loan on Merseyside. Paired with Everton’s other young gun, Ross Barkley, Lukaku helps form the most dangerous young duo in the BPL. For Everton the issues arise in their lack of dynamic, seasoned depth. When healthy last season, Barcelona loanee Gerard Deulofeu gave Everton a fast, dynamic attacking wing man. His presence this season would have been a huge boon to Everton, had Barcelona not promoted him to their first-team roster and then loaned him to Sevilla. The other big challenge for Everton will be balancing European competition with the Premier League season, something they haven’t needed to do for quite some time and something that has challenged clubs like Swansea City and Newcastle United in recent years.

6. Tottenham Hotspur

The recent signing of US defender DeAndre Yedlin aside, Spurs have been relatively quiet during this transfer window, with Michael Vorm being the highest profile signing, though he figures to get just Europa League work with Hugo Lloris firmly grasping the #1 GK role. And so the hope in North London is that a new coach will cure what ailed an inconsistent club in 2013-14, especially after a busy summer transfer period leading in to that season. 13-14 saw two different coaches, neither of whom seemed to click with the roster and so Mauricio Pochettino leaves the South Coast for White Hart Lane and hopes to have the kind of success there that he did last year at Southampton, where he took a group of mostly raw, young players and turned them into a near-Europa league contender. Tottenham’s roster is much better than the one he had at Southampton, though much like Everton before them, Spurs find themselves in the tough situation of having to play Thursday Europa League matches in, as the Men in Blazers call them, Eastern European drug enclaves. It’s a brutal way to play, no matter how lavish the travel arrangements are and rarely does that equal success on the pitch in the League. That said, Spurs are deeper than Everton and more experienced with the Europa League schedule.

5. Liverpool

The biggest headline at Anfield in the brief offseason was the departure of top goal scorer Luis Suarez, who after pledging his allegiance to Liverpool, moved to Barcelona to pair with Neymar and Messi. He leaves behind a team on the rise, with a flock of very skilled young players, led by Phillippe Coutinho and Raheem Sterling. Both of those players will need to take a big step forward to help lone-striker Daniel Sturridge fill the void left by Suarez’s departure. The additions of Rickie Lambert, Adam Lallana, and Dejan Lovren from Southhampton will help the depth and the further development of Jordan Henderson will be key, but for Liverpool to be successful, they’ll need their defense to be much improved over last season’s unit. Lovern may very well supplant Martin Skrtel in central defense, and while Lovern is a certain upgrade, Liverpool will need more consistency in net from Simon Mignolet as well, who at times last season looked to be the best goalkeeper in the world and at other times, looked like he could be a backup for Brighton and Hove Albion.

4. Chelsea

The signings of Felipe Luis, Diego Costa, and Cesc Fabergas are great additions. The signing of Didier Drogba is simply Jose Mourinho being Jose. The loss of Demba Ba probably won’t be noticed, but the loss of David Luiz to PSG might be the thing that really hurts Chelsea. Luiz was, for whatever reason (and Jose always has his reasons) never in favor with the manager. But Luiz is a versatile central defender, who can be useful in attack at times. Not to be forgotten too is the return (from loan) of Thibaut Courtois. Courtois will certainly challenge Peter Cech for playing time and, given his great skill, should win that competition. But again, you never know with Jose, who is the Bill Belichick of football played with the foot. Jose has a great loyalty to his men. Time will tell how long he can remain loyal to the Peter Cechs and Didier Drogbas of the world before he needs to rely on the Willians, Courtois, and Andre Schurrles.

3. Manchester United

Do I think United have a better roster than Chelsea? No. Do I think that Louis Van Gaal, United’s new manager can use his players better than Jose Mourinho can? Yes I do. The best example of this is United’s young Belgian star Adnan Januzaj. Jose Mourinho wouldn’t know what to do with such a young talent. He’d likely make him serve an apprenticeship under a 33 year old veteran. Van Gaal will use Januzaj in his attacking style from day one and United will benefit from that.  And do I think that United will benefit greatly, as Liverpool did last season, from not having to play in European competitions? Absolutely. It will allow players like Robin van Persie more time to recover as they age and give the young guns, like Januzaj and Southampton (noticing a trend?) transfer Luke Shaw further develop their games. This will be a transition year for United, but one that will set them up well for long-term sustained success.

2. Manchester City

Thanks to sanctions handed down by UEFA, Manchester City was not able to make any big transfer splashes, instead adding important pieces, for depth, to the defense and midfield, namely Bacary Sagna, Eliaquim Mangala, and Fernando.. Beyond their additions, this is very much the same Manchester City side that just managed to creep by Liverpool at the end of last season to capture their second BPL title in 3 years. There is really no reason to think that this club won’t challenge for a title again, especially given their success last season despite limited playing time from main striker Sergio Aguero. An argument can easily be made that this club is better as well, given the health of Steven Jovetic, who has looked very good during the preseason warm up matches. City’s placement here in second is less a commentary or criticism on/of them and more a bit of praise for what Arsenal did during this transfer period. 

1. Arsenal

Simply put, Arsene Wenger did an amazing job in the transfer window bringing in Callum Chambers (Southampton), Mathieu Debuchy (Newcastle), David Ospina (Nice), and most importantly Alexis Sanchez (Barcelona). No single move in the transfer window altered a team more than Arsenal’s purchase of Alexis. His presence allows the Gunners to move Mesut Ozil into a primarily passing midfielder role, where he is more useful. Alexis, who fancies himself more a forward than a midfielder, can play directly behind Yaya Sanogo or Olivier Giroud (whoever is the preferred striker) and create chances in a way that will change Arsenal into a goal-scoring powerhouse. Defensively, the additions of the young Chambers and the seasoned Debuchy add certain depth, but also versatility. And in the midfield, there’s no club with the depth that Arsenal packs. Assuming they put out their standard back-4 and one striker lineup, you have five midfield spots for, when healthy:

Theo Walcott, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Mesut Ozil, Alexis Sanchez, Aaron Ramsey, Santi Cazorla, Mikel Arteta, Jack Wilshire, Lukas Podolski, Abou Diaby, Tomas Rosicky, and Mathieu Flamini.

In truth, Arsenal could put together two separate units, almost like hockey lines, and not miss a beat. Their depth is truly unparalleled in the BPL. And for all of the hand-wringing about whether Olivier Giroud is truly a great striker, there are about 15 other teams in the league that would love to have him. There aren’t any holes at the Emirates. This is a team that is built to take home multiple pieces of silverware this season and if their recent win against an albeit short-handed Manchester City side in the FA Community Shield is any indication, it could be a long season for anyone trying to beat the Gunners.

 

And as I did last season, I leave you with my 3 picks to be promoted from SkyBet to the BPL for the 2015-16 season. Last year, I was 1/3. Let’s go for two this time around:

Derby County, Wigan Athletic, Nottingham Forest

2014 NBA Mock Draft

I want to start this post by focusing on Isaiah Austin. But first, Houston Astros top prospect Carlos Correa recently suffered a serious and still undiagnosed leg injury while running the bases in A-ball. Peter Gammons, one of the greatest scribes and voices in the history of baseball tweeted the following morning “Pray the Carlos Correa injury isn’t serious.” This tweet was of course followed by the easy-to-predict replies of “There are more important things to pray for in this world, Peter.”

I found this particular type of reply callous, cold, harsh, and inhumane. Society’s treatment of athletes is a very conflicted one. We want our athletes to give 100% always, do great charity work, never drive their cars too fast, have 2.4 children (of course, from their high school sweetheart), and rescue kittens from trees during the offseason. But when those athletes suffer some sort of malady, well, they become useless to us. Joey Votto received a heaping load of criticism recently for taking “too much time” to recover from a knee injury. He was being “selfish.” Bryce Harper has got some of that here in Washington. I mean, “WHAT IS TAKING HIM SO LONG TO RECOVER FROM A SIMPLE BROKEN THUMB?!?!” In short, we treat our athletes like they’re not human.

Chances are, the godly or God-fearing amongst us would see no harm in asking for our next door neighbor’s broken leg to heal. Hell, I have family members who say they pray for me to land a job and I’m unemployed because I chose to be. But shame on the person who wishes that a very talented 19 year old shortstop doesn’t have a career-threatening injury.

This brings me back to Isaiah Austin. I’ve never met the 7’1″ former Baylor center. In fact, I’ve never met anyone over 7 feet tall in my life. I’m as separated from Isaiah Austin personally as one could be. But I was filled with sadness on Sunday when I read about his being diagnosed with Marfan syndrome, ending his NBA career before it started. Knowing the Isaiah Austin story (that he’s also been playing basketball at a really high level while being blind in one eye) made this revelation that much sadder. I assume that Austin will return to Baylor and finish his degree. But Marfan syndrome is a dangerous thing, often afflicting the very tall. In short and very unmedical terms, his heart isn’t large enough to sustain him during physical activity. You know, like playing basketball competitively. Or living like a human being. There are people all of the world battling any number of terrible illnesses. But that doesn’t make the Isaiah Austin story any more unfortunate.

I’m happy that NBA commissioner Adam Silver, who has been excellent in his short time on the job, has invited Austin to the Draft. And I hope that one team drafting in the second round uses a pick that they would’ve otherwise spent on a draft-and-stash European prospect on Austin, knowing that he’ll never get to play a game for them, but allowing him to achieve his goal of being drafted by an NBA team.

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Generally speaking, when an NBA Draft seems like an afterthought, it’s because the talent pool is shallow. For example: last year. This year’s draft is not like that. The 2014 talent pool is incredibly deep. You can travel down a list of the top prospects until about the 40s before you start to see a real drop off. There are players who will be selected late in the second round of this draft who would have been first rounders last year. There might not be a LeBron or Durant here, but unlike some recent drafts, there aren’t a lot of Thomas Robinsons or Joe Alexanders likely to go in the lottery.

The afterthought aspect is due to three current NBA players: Kevin Love, LeBron James, and Carmelo Anthony.

Love is not a free agent, but is a “must-trade” for the Minnesota Timberwolves who need get something in return for him before his contract expires after this next season. It’s likely that Minnesota only ends up with $.85 for their $1.00, but that’s better than getting $0.00 for it when Love is a free agent next summer. Love’s list of suitors include the Boston Celtics, Golden State Warriors, Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Lakers, and surely others. Boston is considered the favorite because they have a stockpile of first round draft picks in the coming years (their own and Brooklyn’s) and a smattering of young and somewhat useful players, including Jared Sullinger, Kelly Olynyk, and Avery Bradley. Golden State has the best player to offer in Klay Thompson, but not much in the way of potential high-upside draft picks. Same for Houston. Los Angeles falls into a similar boat as the Celtics’ except they don’t have useful young players to trade or a lot of draft picks. Where Love goes before the Draft could have a huge impact on what happens starting at pick 6 with Boston.

Add to that the idea that if the Celtics can’t acquire Love, they might trade Rajon Rondo to a team, like Sacramento, who needs a true point guard and has young assets (including draft picks). And so, by the end of Sunday night, a team like the Celtics could have a core of Rajon Rondo, Avery Bradley, Jeff Green, Kevin Love, and a tall person, or a core of rookies and future first round draft picks. In other words, a complete, bottom-up rebuild. No player personnel man in basketball has a more interesting next 48 hours than Danny Ainge.

Kevin Love would be a big enough story alone, but the best basketball player in the world is also now a free agent. His suitors include every team in the NBA, from the Heat to the Bucks. LeBron is in a truly fascinating position, because unlike his 2010 free agency, he’s not hunting for championships to begin to craft his legacy. He has two titles now. LeBron could decide to stay loyal to Miami (why, I do not know), rebuild a Cavaliers team he left in shambles and instantly make them a contender, go to Phoenix and form the most exciting team since the 1980s Showtime Lakers, sign with the Clippers and join forces with his best friend Chris Paul and coach Doc Rivers, or go to Chicago and play in the shadow of Michael Jordan with an ailing Derrick Rose (I do not know why this is an option, but I’m not the expert, so…). LeBron could also, in a theoretical world, stun everyone and decide to turn the Milwaukee Bucks or Utah Jazz into his project, propelling them to instant success and consequence. Or he could, in a theoretical world, play for the veteran minimum and join forces with Kevin Durant in Oklahoma City. He could do similar things in Golden State with Steph Curry. The possibilities are endless for LeBron. It’s just a matter of how much of an outside-the-box thinker he and his camp is/are. And how much fun they want to have over the next 4-5 years. My money is on a boring return to a mediocre Miami team (seriously, take him off that roster and tell me how good they are. Do they win 35 games next season?) with Dwyane Wade and his knees and Chris Bosh and his lack of an interior presence. But my heart is with a young, exciting nucleus in Cleveland, being coached by a  total wild card in former Maccabi Tel Aviv coach David Blatt.

Finally, there is Carmelo Anthony, the least interesting of these story lines because he doesn’t make any team a contender automatically. I think he goes to Chicago and Tom Thibodeau kills him before training camp ends for lack of defensive hustle.

All of that brings us to the draft. In the past two years, I’ve made more of a big board because the draft is so impossible to project because of the constant trades. However, I won’t do that here. I’ll give an actual mock draft of the lottery portion, bearing in mind all of the machinations that could occur before and during my favorite annual event. After, I’ll list a few of my favorite players in the Draft, which we’ll call the Kyle Anderson Section.

THE LOTTERY

1. Cleveland Cavaliers select Andrew Wiggins (SG/Kansas): No one, save for one mysterious Australian, has Andrew Wiggins’ upside in this draft. He’s a developed talent defensively who struggled at times as a freshman to take over games in the way that Jabari Parker did at Duke. That said, his athleticism if off the charts. He slots in very well at the 2-guard in most NBA lineups and has the potential to be a perennial All-Star. I think Cleveland likely takes him with the first overall pick. And as I tweeted earlier today, a lineup of: Kyrie Irving, Andrew Wiggins, LeBron James, Tristan Thompson, and Anderson Varajeo isn’t bad at all. In fact, I think it becomes the best lineup in the East. Especially with Dion Waiters, Tyler Zeller, and last year’s top pick Anthony Bennett coming off the bench with an early second round pick and an inexpensive free agent piece or two.

2. Milwaukee Bucks select Jabari Parker (SF/Duke): Parker is not a defensive wizard. In fact, he’s not even good defensively. But he seems to be a coachable player and to be fair to him, he didn’t exactly go to the Jim Boeheim school of Defense in college. Parker is a slasher, shooter, and scorer. He’s polished in that respect and could very easily average 20 points per game as a rookie. He is the safest bet in this draft and given his immense talent, I think he fits in nicely in either of the top two spots, though Milwaukee stylistically is the best fit for him if the Cavaliers (drafting first) think they have a shot at LeBron. And so that’s why he ends up here.

3. Philadelphia 76ers select Dante Exum (PG/Australia): Most high-ranking NBA scouts have only seen Dante Exum play basketball once. That’s not a typo. He played in the Nike Hoops Summit and performed very well against some of the top players in college basketball (many of whom you see here). He is the son of a former North Carolina basketball player. He possesses size (6’6″) that makes him a versatile guard. He is by all accounts a great ball handler with an incredible motor. One NBA GM has said (to ESPN’s Chad Ford) that Exum is the closest he’s seen to Kobe Bryant. And yet, Exum is a total wild card. Philadelphia is his landing spot and it’s not a natural one. Philly would have two very young and very raw 6’6″ hybrid guards in Exum and Michael Carter-Williams. This is a pick built entirely on potential and made slightly easier by the fact that Philly will draft again in this lottery.

4. Orlando Magic select Aaron Gordon (PF/Arizona): Orlando ends up in a really unfortunate position. They miss out on the upside of Exum and the star power of Wiggins and Parker and are left with a choice between three raw power forwards, an injured center, or a volatile point guard. I think they take Gordon because of his upside. There’s a little bit of Blake Griffin in there. Gordon is an athletic freak who will be a rebounding force from Day 1 for whomever drafts him. Like Griffin, the offensive game (outside of alley-oops) will have to be developed, but there’s more to work with in Aaron Gordon than in the alternatives.

5. Utah Jazz select Jabari Parker (SF/Duke): In an act of total spite for the draft system, the Jazz get the player they wanted all along, by taking recently drafted Milwaukee Bucks forward Jabari Parker. Jazz fans rejoice forever, while Adam Silver looks on in disbelief.

5. Utah Jazz actually select Nik Stauskas (SG/Michigan): This isn’t so much a matter of pairing Trey Burke with his college teammate or pairing a white guard with the Utah Jazz as much as it is Stauskas deserving to go this high and fulfilling a need for Utah: he’s a scorer, especially from distance, who showed a real ability to get to the basket and make things happen playing in the physical B1G. With Gordon Hayward a restricted free agent, Stauskas would give Utah some flexibility should someone put forth a hefty offer sheet for Hayward. There’s no doubt in my mind Stauskas is the better player, given his shooting and ball-handling ability.

6. Boston Celtics select Joel Embiid (C/Kansas): If you’re going to rebuild, you rebuild from the ground up. I think this is what the Celtics are finally going to do. In this case, they’ll be rebuilding from the foot up. Embiid has drawn comparisons to Hakeem Olajuwon and Sam Bowie. The risk in drafting him is enormous. But if Boston doesn’t get Kevin Love on Draft night and Embiid falls to them, he’s a must-pick for the future. If his injuries turn out to be a part of a young man growing into his frame, the Celtics could have a Hall of Fame type player fall into their lap. If his injuries turn out to be, like so many other big men, a common side effect of being very big, then they’ll have missed badly, but have enough future assets (including another first round pick in this draft) to attempt to gloss over that miss.

7. Los Angeles Lakers select Marcus Smart (PG/Oklahoma State): This pick just makes too much sense. Smart instantly becomes the best point guard Kobe Bryant has had in a long time (because, you’ll remember, 2005 Steve Nash was not playing for the 2013 Los Angeles Lakers). Smart is a fiery competitor. His temper has gotten the best of him, sure. But he defends well and gives max effort. If Kobe Bryant has anything left in the tank, the two could be a really interesting duo to watch.

8. Sacramento Kings select Elfrid Payton (PG/Louisiana): No one’s stock has risen as much as Payton’s has during the draft process. He draws comparisons to Rajon Rondo because of his defensive ability, length, and unrefined offensive game. The Kings have needed a true point guard since Mike Bibby left 100 years ago. If they’re ever going to get out of the Lottery, it’s going to have to be through developing a team leader. Payton is a reach here, but if the comparisons to Rondo hold true, the 8 spot is a nice place to land a floor general.

9. Charlotte Hornets select Doug McDermott (SF/Creighton): The surprise playoff team of 2013-14, the Hornets own the Pistons pick here because, really, Detroit doesn’t need a first round draft pick, right? McDermott is one of the most accomplished scorers in NCAA Division I history. He can shoot the ball from anywhere on the court and has the size to play and score inside. Charlotte desperately lacks a true scoring threat, as Michael Kidd-Gilchrist has failed to develop that part of his game. McDermott gives them the best pure scorer and shooter in this draft and further improves an already improving basketball team.

10. Philadelphia 76ers select Julius Randle (PF/Kentucky): The Sixers took a risk with the unknown Exum at 3 and now take the safe pick with the former Kentucky standout who still sits on the board because of fears that he’s not quite ready to be an interior player in the NBA and isn’t quite an outside shooter. So if Randle is a ‘tweener, the Sixers still get a known commodity. He’s a guy who is going to rebound the basketball. The comparisons to Zach Randolph are not that far off, even if they are a little obvious. For a team like Philadelphia with little to no interior presence, Randle combined with a potentially healthy Nerlens Noel, could drastically improve their ability to rebound and defend inside. Because they were truly awful at that in 2013-14.

11. Denver Nuggets select Gary Harris (SG/Michigan State): The Nuggets are an interesting case of a talented team that just played bad basketball in 2013-14. The talent is there with Ty Lawson, Danilo Galinari, and Kenneth Faried and a decent supporting cast, but injuries and inconsistent play hampered them last season. Harris gives them a scoring threat at the 2-guard, which is probably what they wanted from 2012 First Rounder Evan Fournier who to this date has averaged 7.4 ppg in his NBA career.

12. Orlando Magic select Dario Saric (SF/Croatia): Draft and stash alert! Saric has signed to play with a team in Turkey, meaning the earliest Orlando will see him (or he will see Orlando, bless his heart) is 2016-17. He is, by all accounts (because I don’t watch Adriatic League basketball) a great passer and ball-handler, with impressive length and size (6’10”). He probably would have been drafted earlier had he committed to playing in the NBA. Orlando can afford this risk, given their two first round picks.

13. Minnesota Timberwolves select Noah Vonleh (PF/Indiana): Call this Kevin Love Insurance. Vonleh is raw, raw, raw, but showed flashes of brilliance in his one year at Indiana. He’s got everything you want from a college freshman, but his game needs a lot of refinement before he’s ready for the NBA. There’s a little bit of Kevin Love in Vonleh (cross-racial comparison for $500, Alex) in that Vonleh can rebound very well, but also step out and shoot the 3. He’s not the passer that Love is, but frankly, half of the NBA’s point guards aren’t the passer that Love is. He’s not an immediate replacement, but if he falls this far (reports are that some teams love Vonleh and others do not like him, as a prospect, at all) he’s a great value pick as a developmental project for Minnesota as they re-re-re-re-re-re-re-re-re-build.

14. Phoenix Suns select Rodney Hood (SF/Duke): The Suns proved to be one of the NBA’s most exciting teams in 2013-14, built on a roster of versatile players and they get another in Hood who can score from anywhere on the court. Hood would be an immediate upgrade at the 3 over PJ Tucker or could be a game-changing 6th/7th man option for coach Jeff Hornacek. There’s little here that Phoenix could get wrong. This is a team I completely misjudged going into last season that was able to take an unconventional roster and win immediately.

KYLE ANDERSON SECTION (players I love at each position)

DeAndre Kane (PG/Iowa State): Kane may go undrafted, due largely to his being 25 years old, but he’s a big, physical point guard with great court vision and a knack for leading the fast break.

Zach LaVine (SG/UCLA): Rawer than Noah Vonleh and the meat of a still living cow, LaVine’s athleticism is the reason to draft him. I think his floor in the NBA is Gerald Green, a guy who started for a near-playoff team (Phoenix) this past season. His ceiling is much, much higher.

Cleanthony Early (SF/Wichita State): Early gets to the basket and scores. He’s also an improving outside shooter and a very good player on the glass for his size. In the right system, he could be starting by the end of his rookie season, despite being a likely late first round pick.

Kyle Anderson (PF/UCLA): If we’re talking unconventional players, we have to talk about my favorite prospect in this draft, UCLA’s Kyle Anderson. I watched Anderson in person dominate USC to the tune of 23/12/5. Anderson is 6’9″ but is naturally a point guard. Because of his size, Anderson isn’t necessarily fast enough to play the point in the NBA, which makes him the most intriguing project in the draft. If someone can find a role for a game-changing point forward, who can rebound the basketball, pass like a point guard, and shoot from 15-23′, they’re going to have a gem in Anderson. This is not a potential rookie of the year candidate. But this is a potentially transformative player.

Sim Bhullar (C/New Mexico State): This is more of an opportunity to talk about Sim Bhullar than anything else. Bhullar is 7’5″, weighs over 350 lbs, and rarely played more than 25 minutes a game at New Mexico State because he just wasn’t conditioned for it. Bhullar came out early, as a sophomore, because, really, there wasn’t much more to improve upon. As they say, you can’t teach “big.” He could be an impact shot blocker/rebounder off the bench, and absolutely nothing more. His inclusion here is a testament to how weak the center position is in the 2014 Draft. It’s really Joel Embiid, a bunch of European guys, and some fringe college players who could get drafted based solely on their size.

——————

And so there you have it. I won’t continue to mock the first round because I will literally start mocking teams that I think will draft players like Shabazz Napier and Tyler Ennis. There are some other players of note (PJ Hairston and Adreian Payne for example) who I think will be solid NBA players at their positions, but really, the rest of the first round always becomes a mess of trades and European players. So, with apologies to Bosnian center Jusuf Nurkic, enjoy the 2014 NBA Draft.

In Defense of Michael Bradley

Michael Bradley does not need to be defended by a slob on the Internet WITH OPINIONS any more than he deserves to be criticized by a slob on the Internet WITH OPINIONS. Michael Bradley has done enough in his career both for clubs and for country that the product should speak for itself. 

That said, I hope Michael Bradley and the members of his family did not read any tweets after yesterday’s match. Twitter is a lot of things. One of them is a dumping ground for the misspelled thoughts of the blissfully unaware. And so once the final whistle sounded in Manaus, the masses took to their Twitter accounts to call for the benching of Michael Bradley, using the very clever hashtag #BenchBradley.

My guess is that most of these people calling for Bradley’s benching are neophytes. I’ve yet to talk with one person that follows the US Men’s National Team religiously who thinks that benching the team’s best field player is even a remotely decent idea. 

Did Bradley play well against Ghana? No. He had probably his worst match under Jurgen Klinsmann. But Bradley didn’t play poorly yesterday against Portugal. There are, of course, the two obvious instances where the casual football observer would think that he was some kind of choking dog. But I’m not sure that casual observer is capable of noticing what a player like Bradley does over the course of 90 minutes. 

Never in my life has the US had a box-to-box midfielder with Bradley’s skill and adeptness. By American standards, he’s a terrific passer and a player you want with the ball at his feet leading a break. He’s also a guy who defends the middle of the pitch very well. He is certainly not of the class of an Arturo Vidal, Yaya Toure, or Xavi, but Bradley is undoubtedly a world football player. 

Soccer is not a sport where end of game statistics tell the entire story. Case in point: Spain out-possessed Holland 57/43 in their Group B match and still lost 5-1. For players like Bradley and Xavi, statistics aren’t the story. The world’s best goal scorers are often diminished talents without the supporting cast behind them (see: Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi’s international careers versus their club careers). 

A prevalent (and wholly stupid) argument is that “Well, if Bradley was so good he should have scored on that “easy” shot and then the US would have won 3-2.” Soccer does not work that way. It’s often said that a 2-0 lead is the most dangerous type of lead in soccer. That is because teams will change their tactics on the fly to attack more. Portugal dominated possession in the first five minutes of yesterday’s match, leading to Nani’s goal. After that goal, the US attack built and the Portuguese seemed content to sit back, defend, and counter attack. When the US went up 2-1, Portugal stopped that tactic and started possessing the ball more, forcing the US into defend-for-your-lives mode.

It’s never as cut and dry as “tally up the shots on goal and viola! soccer!”At the risk of sounding like “That American Soccer Fan Guy,” it’s called the beautiful game for a number of reasons. One of those reasons is the amount of tactical thought and maneuvering that goes into a 90 minute match. This isn’t basketball. In the final minutes, Cristiano Ronaldo wasn’t holding the ball at his feet, waving off teammates to clear a path so he could go iso with Matt Besler. Like no other sport, soccer is a team game. All 10 field players need to be in tune with each other at all times. A central midfielder, like Michael Bradley, needs to know the exact moment that his right back is going to streak up the touchline. If not, you risk a.) a pass going out of play b.) a pass being intercepted c.) that right back ending up in an offside position d.) any other number of scenarios. 

All of this leads to one central point: if you’ve watched the US Mens National Team closely since Jurgen took over, you know very well that Michael Bradley is the nucleus of the cell that is our team. With all due respect to his father, Michael was never this valuable when his dad was the at the helm of US Soccer. Jurgen has brought out the best in Bradley. To give that up now because of roughly 100 minutes of somewhat shaky football would be utterly foolish. This is not an aging, out of shape, whiny Landon Donovan, who wasn’t going to contribute much at all in this World Cup. This is a player in his prime who is maybe the primary reason why US Soccer is where it is today and a primary reason why US Soccer is headed in the direction it is tomorrow and every day after. Michael Bradley got us to this point. To turn our back on him now would seem to be quite contradictory to that other hashtag I’ve seen a lot of, #OneNationOneTeam. 

MLB 25 And Under Dream Team

This is a sequel to a post from 2012. You can read that post here.

In the above referenced post from 2012, I attempted to build a roster of the best 25 and under players. Unlike some lists you’ll find on the Internet, I didn’t make it a list of the 25 best players aged 25 and under. I used relief pitchers and bench bats and tried to build a great team.

The 2012 list came at a time when a number of star players just barely made the qualifying mark of “25 by the time I publish this.” Gone from that list, because of age, are stars like Yu Darvish, Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg, Andrew McCutchen, Buster Posey, and Craig Kimbrel. And a quick glance will show that even some guys who are past the age cut-off wouldn’t make this team today even if they did qualify (Justin Upton, Jason Kipnis).

This is an exercise that I would like to revisit every 2 seasons. One rule that I’m changing is that to qualify, players need to be 25 years old not today, but on the last day of the regular season. As with the previous iteration, players with no Major League service time are eligible. And so without further writing that most of you probably skipped over, here is my team:

 

STARTING LINEUP

Catcher: Derek Norris (Oakland Athletics): The talent pool at this position is not very deep. The 2012 catcher, Buster Posey, has graduated to age 27 and with prospects like Travis d’Arnaud and Mike Zunino struggling to be useful to the Mets and Mariners respectively, Norris and his high-OBP finds himself here. Norris may not be a long-term catcher as he’s not known for his incredible defensive prowess, but any player with his ability to get on-base has value in a pool this shallow.

First Baseman: Freddie Freeman (Atlanta Braves): I overlooked Freddie Freeman on my 2012 team. I gave him mention but didn’t think that he could be a patient enough hitter to have true long-term value over someone like Eric Hosmer, who is excellent defensively. Hosmer, however, has been an abysmal hitter. Meanwhile, since I published my 2012 team, Freeman has become not only the best young first baseman in baseball, but maybe the best overall first baseman, short of Miguel Cabrera. Defensively, Freeman has been inconsistent, ending 2013 on the positive side of Defensive Runs Saved. This season has been a very different story defensively. But we’re not really building this all-star team solely on defense. Freeman’s bat can play almost anywhere in the lineup because of his versatility as a hitter. That’s immensely more valuable when building a team like this.

Second Baseman: Rougned Odor (Texas Rangers): The player who you wish had an “h” in his first name is also the youngest player in the Majors. Odor has played in a very limited fashion as a 20 year old for Texas, but has shown a mature approach at the plate and solid defensive prowess. He finds himself here for the same reason that he finds himself playing for the Rangers: Jurickson Profar’s ailing shoulder. With Profar likely out for the rest of the season, Odor might be just a placeholder here, but in his brief stint in the Majors (<100 PA) he has been a much better hitter than Profar was. And so as much as it pains me to leave Profar off this team, I have to give the nod to Odor.

Third Baseman: Anthony Rendon (Washington Nationals): Injuries are always a concern for Rendon and so a long-term investment is a risk, but in his nearly full season (158 games at the time of writing this blurb) as a Major Leaguer, he sports a 107 OPS+ and plays a very good defensive third base. There are other names you could put here (see the bench section and the shortstop) but Rendon has produced and has shown improvement in his ability to drive the ball (his slugging pct. is 65 points higher in 2014 than it was in 2013).

Shortstop: Xander Bogaerts (Boston Red Sox): Just an astounding player. At 21, Bogaerts is getting on-base at a 36% clip, has an OPS approaching .800, and isn’t striking out at a rate you’d expect from someone so young. His approach is so developed for a 21 year old that you forget his age. Defensively, he’s probably a third baseman long-term and he’s playing there now for Boston with the recent signing of Stephen Drew, but in the interim, Bogaerts can play shortstop in the Majors without much difficulty. It’s shocking to me that he doesn’t get more publicity considering the team he plays for.

Left Field: Bryce Harper (Washington Nationals): A homer pick? Probably. But let’s take a look at what the 21 year old Harper has done in his career to date:

.273/.353/.476, 125 OPS+, 43 HR, 126 RBI, 8.9 WAR (279 career games)

Harper is the victim, so to speak, of Mike Trout’s success. LeBron James recently called himself the most scrutinized player in sports, which very well may be true. Harper though may be Major League Baseball’s most scrutinized player (if not him, it’s my right fielder), even at times by his own inept manager. It all seems pretty unfair when you look at the production. Statistically speaking, at his age, Harper still compares favorably to Ken Griffey Jr. and Micky Mantle. So maybe we should cool off on the criticism just a bit.

Center Field: Mike Trout (Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, California Angels): Simply put, Trout is the best all-around player in baseball today and the best all-around player in baseball probably since early 1990’s Barry Bonds, aka the greatest player in the history of baseball. Trout will turn 23 this August and has shown some signs of being human this season, as his overall slash line is down across the board from his 2013 total. But there’s no question that he owns this spot until the moment he’s no longer age-eligible, or scientists create a more perfect baseball player (unlikely).

Right Field: Yasiel Puig (Los Angeles Dodgers): Rounding out an outfield of the most dynamic players in baseball who all also happen to be under the age of 25 is Yasiel Puig, arguably the most exciting player in the game. Puig is only 23 (and won’t turn 24 until December) and has only played 164 games in his Major League career (so, call it a full season). He sports a career OBP of .403, which is relatively unheard of for such a young hitter from Latin America, where patience at the plate is not necessarily treated as a virtue. Puig’s slugging percentage of .549 would have been topped by only 4 other Major Leaguers last season. His arm in right field is Vladimir Guerrero-esque. And for every base running blunder that gets shown on MLB Tonight and criticized by the Billy Ripkens and Harold Reynolds of the world, Puig evens those out by stretching the sort of hits most players give up on at first base into doubles. Puig is on a path to becoming the best import hitter in baseball history. And if you’re whining about Roberto Clemente right now, it took him 6 seasons to put up numbers even close to what Puig has done in one full season. Viva Puig.

Designated HItter: Giancarlo Stanton (Miami Marlins): As I stated in my 2012 piece, I don’t believe that pitchers should hit. I love the pace of National League baseball, but I don’t love pitchers hurting themselves running the bases or being automatic outs because for every Mike Leake, there are 30 Johnny Cuetos and Bartolo Colons. So we use a DH and in this case, the perfect DH, in Stanton. His glove is not a true detriment, but his body has proven to be not entirely made of steel. Giving him the ability to focus on the one thing he does better than anyone (murdering baseballs) is a true asset to this squad. Stanton certainly isn’t on the same Hall of Fame path that Trout and Puig are (I know it’s a long time off before we elect players from this team to the Hall, relax), but no one in baseball has the raw power that Stanton does. And unlike a lot of raw power hitters, Stanton doesn’t strike out at an historic rate and knows how to draw walks.

BATTING ORDER

Xander Bogaerts
Yasiel Puig
Mike Trout
Giancarlo Stanton
Freddie Freeman
Bryce Harper
Derek Norris
Anthony Rendon
Rougned Odor

 

BENCH PLAYERS

Salvador Perez (C, Kansas City Royals): Perez is a big catcher who has managed to stay healthy while catching every day. His offensive numbers are not terribly impressive, but again, the talent pool at this position is not full of recent success stories.

Anthony Rizzo (1B, Chicago Cubs): Quietly, because he plays for a terrible baseball team, Rizzo is putting together a very nice season, seeing his walks increase and his strikeout rate drop at a very high rate. In short, he’s turning into a Freddie Freeman-type player and I’m okay with having two of those on my roster.

Andrelton Simmons (SS, Atlanta Braves): Simmons beat out slick fielding Indians prospect Francisco Lindor because his defense is unrivaled and he already has the Major League experience that the very young (but very developed) Lindor does not. Simmons will not be a late game pinch-hitting option.

Manny Machado (3B/SS, Baltimore Orioles): You would think, given the hype, that Machado has been a great hitter, but he hasn’t. It’s his glove that has been very valuable, leading the Majors in dWAR last season. The bat should come (hopefully with some maturity) and even if it doesn’t, the defensive flexibility that he provides is a big plus. With him, Rendon, and Bogaerts, you have three guys who can play at least two different positions in the infield each.

Billy Hamilton (OF, Cincinnati Reds): Hamilton was the toughest add here, beating out Pirates prospect Gregory Polanco, Marlins outfielder Christian Yelich, and Astros center fielder George Springer, because he brings something to the table that few players in recent memory have brought: blinding speed. In a late game situation, with someone like Derek Norris standing on first, Hamilton would be the ideal game changer.

 

PITCHING ROTATION

Chris Sale (LHP, Chicago White Sox): I tried for years to write off Chris Sale. His slight frame and terrifying delivery screamed “ARM INJURY!!!!” And yet, other than some time missed earlier this season with minor soreness, Sale has been healthy in his now 3rd season as a Major League starting pitcher. In his two previous seasons (I’m largely discounting the years the White Sox used him as a reliever), Sale was a sure-fire top of the rotation guy who finished in the top 6 in Cy Young voting each year, but was not necessarily someone you’d lump into the “Best Pitcher in the Game” category immediately. That has changed this year. Sale currently sports a sub 2.00 ERA, his highest K/9 as a starter, and a WHIP so microscopic (0.67) that he is entering not just “Best Pitcher in the Game” category, but “Best Pitching Season in the Modern Era” category. Of course, pitchers have half seasons like this (we call it Ubaldo Jimenzing), but everything Sale has done so far leans toward not just a stretch of good luck, but a pitcher who is beginning to peak. And that peak might be rising up to Mount Kershaw before long.

Masahiro Tanaka (RHP, New York Yankees): Tanaka just qualifies for this team, as he won’t turn 26 until November 1 and that’s good because he deserves to be on any list, created by any person, on the Internet. At the time of his signing, many made Hideki Irabu or Kei Igawa comparisons because Tanaka, like Irabu and Igawa, is Japanese. That and the fact that they have pitched for the New York Yankees is literally the only thing those three men have in common. Tanaka has been a revelation in the Majors and is the sole driving force behind the Yankees not chasing the Tampa Bay Rays and Houston Astros for the worst record in the American League. Tanaka is 10-1 (I don’t care about w-l record, but it looks pretty), sports a sub-1.00 WHIP and an ERA+ of 200. Those numbers for a rookie pitcher, even though Tanaka had great success pitching professionally in Japan, are incredible. Consider those numbers only in the context of a 25 year old prospect and they’re incredible. The race between Tanaka and Chris Sale for the American League Cy Young should be fantastic to watch, even if their respective teams aren’t. Tanaka has already been worth 3.5 wins to the Yankees, making his $22 million annual salary seem more than deserved so far in his young career.

Julio Teheran (RHP, Atlanta Braves): It’s not that Julio Teheran came out of nowhere. He has been a highly touted pitcher for many years. He was a fixture on Top 100 prospect lists before making his debut, along with two other Braves prospects (Arodys Vizcaino and Randall Delgado) both of whom have flamed out to this point. For a while, Teheran looked like a potential flame out as well. In spot starts for the Braves in 2011 and 2012, Teheran was wildly inconsistent and prone to pitching too much to contact, despite his great arsenal. Last season, he put together a campaign good enough to finish 5th in NL Rookie of the Year voting, but wasn’t the kind of pitcher who was going to make a list of the five best starting pitchers under 25. 2014 has shown that Teheran was really just not far enough along in his development in those first two seasons of spot starts. His ERA+ has skyrocketed over 150 and his WHIP has dipped below 1.00 and while his strikeouts have dropped, he is on pace to throw close to 200 innings, anchoring a very depleted pitching staff. And at age 23, we’re likely only seeing the start of what Teheran can be.

Madison Bumgarner (LHP, San Francisco Giants): Along with Sale, the only holdover from the 2012 staff, Bumgarner continues to pitch solidly for the Giants. His numbers compared to 2013 are seemingly all different (+ and -) but all within a similar range, showing something that I guess we can call consistency (example: His ERA is 1/10 of a run lower and his K/9 is about 1 strikeout higher, while his WHIP is .14 higher than last season). In short, he’s striking more guys out and pitching to contact more (almost 2 more hits/9) but the results are the same (in fact, his FIP is actually lower in 2014 than in 2013, which you wouldn’t expect given the jump in hits allowed). All of these statistics are a long way of saying, when you’ve got a 6’5″ lefty with a 4-pitch arsenal, who strikes out nearly 10 batters per 9 innings AND he’s under 25, he makes your rotation each and every time.

Sonny Gray (RHP, Oakland Athletics): Our fifth starter doesn’t fit the mold of your typical Major League starting pitcher. Gray stands only 5’11”. Generally, right handed pitchers below 6′ have a difficult time finding success because they’re pitching on a lower plane than their taller rivals. Pitching from that lower plane will allow most hitters to see the ball sooner at eye level, giving them that fraction of time that makes identifying a pitch that much easier. Gray has defied the 6′ or over notion in his 24 career starts. The former Vanderbilt standout offers a fastball in the mid-90s, an excellent sinker, and his best swing-and-miss pitch, a curveball. Gray has also been throwing a changeup more often as he develops as a full-time starter. In addition, Gray isn’t just a product of pitching at O.co Coliseum, as his road splits are dramatically better than his home (lower ERA and WHIP with a higher K/9). There were a number of options at the #5 spot, including current starters who you’ll find in the bullpen below and two of the game’s best pitchers who you’ll find in a special section, but Gray has shown little signs of being a one-year wonder and I think spends the next handful of years as the ace of one of the best real-life staffs in baseball.

BULLPEN

Michael Wacha (RHP, St. Louis Cardinals)

Trevor Rosenthal (RHP, St. Louis Cardinals)

Carlos Martinez (RHP, St. Louis Cardinals)

Addison Reed (RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks)

Yordano Ventura (RHP, Kansas City Royals)

Ian Krol (LHP, Detroit Tigers

-There’s no real need for individual analysis here. Until Wacha develops a useful third pitch, I like him better in a relief role, despite his great success to this point in his young career. Ventura, who is a starter, finds himself in the bullpen for similar reasons and additionally because he’s just a little too short to be a right-handed two pitch pitcher. The list of those guys who were successful starting pitchers is not a long or existent one. The rest of the bullpen is high-upside filler, really. The bullpen talent pool does not feature many dynamic youngsters outside of the few you see here (plus Addison Reed, by default).

OF NOTE

Jose Fernandez (RHP, Miami Marlins)

Matt Harvey (RHP, New York Mets)

-Not including these two pitchers felt wrong. But with both recovering from Tommy John surgery, it’s very hard to leave off a healthy pitcher like Sonny Gray or Julio Teheran. As much as we’ve all been programmed to think that pitchers can come back from Tommy John surgery “as good as ever” that’s not always the case, as no two bodies (and thus no two arms) are the same. Fernandez’s injury was especially unfortunate because the Marlins look like a contender for a playoff spot this season, with big improvements from Nathan Eovaldi and Henderson Alvarez in the rotation. For Harvey, he made New York Mets games must-watch spectacles, which they most certainly are not now in his absence.  If healthy, and where they were before their injuries, they’d both be the centerpieces of this rotation,bumping out Gray and Teheran. Until then, I’m going with healthy arms. But I will say, baseball without Harvey and Fernandez is just slightly less enjoyable.

2014 World Cup Preview

*Important(?) Note* I started working on this post in mid-May. From then to the time that I hit publish in a few moments, a lot of things have happened relevant to the World Cup. Luis Suarez had knee surgery (not mentioned below because I had written the Uruguay post prior to that news) and many nations have finalized their 23-man rosters (I wrote the US’s post after Clarence Goodson was left off the 23-man roster). Between the time you see this and the time the World Cup starts, even more things will happen. That’s sort of the thing with life. Things happen.*


On June 12, you will finally be required by law to watch the kind of football you don’t think you enjoy, but probably would if you would just give it a chance.


Like me with bell peppers or the beach, you might have the preconceived notion that you hate soccer. In fact, you might have tried to watch soccer before and realized, ugh, “this doesn’t taste good,” er, “I don’t enjoy watching this.”


But like I have with bell peppers and the beach, you too will realize the beauty and complexity of soccer, once you get past all of the screaming children in the sand or the jarring mixture of textures. Or whatever it is that predisposes you to hating world football.


Every four years, much like Michael Phelps and Paul Begala, the World Cup pops up and reminds you that it exists. I’ve said before that following club soccer can be a bit of a challenge. It’s a challenge I enjoy very much. But I understand the objection some have. Sort of. Not really.


In England alone, clubs can compete in four different tournaments at the same time (the Premier League season, the UEFA Champions or Europa leagues, the Football Association Cup, and the League Cup). This is very complicated and frankly, not all of the clubs take every one of those matches quite seriously. And beyond that, it’s often difficult to keep track of which player is playing where, with star players being bought and sold like Eminem CDs at an FYE (dated reference?).


The World Cup though is different. The World Cup is a battle for, well, world superiority. Players aren’t traded by their countries (though if Brazil would like to trade David Luiz to the US for Eddie Johnson, sign me up). There aren’t four different tournaments happening at once. 32 teams are divided in a somewhat balanced manner into 8 groups of 4. One month later, a champion is crowned.


This year’s World Cup takes place in Brazil, whose primary export is one-named soccer players. And while the lead up to this tournament hasn’t exactly been the joyous political celebration one would hope for, I try to keep the politics out of this blog, so we’ll focus solely on the football.


What will follow will be a fairly long post, with a brief synopsis of what to expect from each of the 32 nations, players to watch, key group stage matches, and other minutiae. If you care not for that stuff, just scroll down to the bottom to see who I’m picking to win the whole darn thing. Otherwise, happy reading/typo catching.


GROUP A or NO, REALLY, THIS IS TOTALLY FAIR. WE’RE NOT GIVING BRAZIL AN ADVANTAGE


Brazil
Past Success: Winners in 1958, 1962, 1970, 1994, and 2002. Fell to the Netherlands in the quarterfinals in 2010.


Expectations: Anything outside of victory is a failure at any World Cup for Brazil. In a World Cup played on Brazilian soil those lofty expectations are only magnified.


Key Match: June 12 v. Croatia. Brazil will play, as hosts, in the traditional opening match of the tournament. The Croats should not be a challenge to the Brazilians, but what will be is how this young team responds to the pressure that day.


Crucial Player: Neymar (Forward). The young superstar backed up all of the hype about him at the 2013 Confederations Cup, but the World Cup is a different animal. After a season at Barcelona it will be interesting to see how much the young forward has developed and matured. Known at times for diving and being an instigator, Neymar will have to lead by example, even if the traditional captainship belongs to central defender Thiago Silva.


Cameroon
Past Success: Final 8 (aka the Quarterfinals) in 1990.


Expectations: The pack of teams beyond Brazil are all very evenly matched on paper. Many will expect The Indomitable Lions to struggle playing in South America. Getting out of Group A should be considered a success.


Key Match: June 13 v. Mexico. A fascinating match on paper, this will be a table-setter in the race for the second bid into the knockout stage. Much like for Mexico, a win here will give the Cameroonians hope that they can succeed against popular opinion.


Crucial Player: Samuel Eto’o (F). The captain might be 73 years old (he’s “only” 33), but he’s still the most important player on this squad. The defense and midfield possess players with top flight European experience like Benoit Assou-Ekotto (currently QPR, formerly Tottenham Hotspur) and Alex Song (Barcelona), but Eto’o is the leader of the bunch and will need to be a scoring threat.


Croatia
Past Success: Third place in 1998.


Expectations: Strange. This is a really solid squad. Unfortunately for them, their best player, Bayern Munich striker Mario Mandzukic is suspended for the opening game against Brazil because he’s kind of an insane person (in this instance, for a studs-high (that is, going in deliberately with your cleats) attack on an opponent in the second leg of Croatia’s World Cup playoff game). Knowing that they’ll likely be down 3 points right away, their margin for error is nil. But there’s enough talent here to see them into the Round of 16.


Key Match: June 23 vs. Mexico. It’ll be the last match of the group for both teams and could be the decider for the second spot in the Round of 16.


Crucial Player: Luka Modric (MF). Never a model for consistency as a footballer, Modric will need to be the table-setter for Croatia if they’re going to advance. He ended the season at Real Madrid as a fixture in their lineup and a key contributor. He’ll need to be more than just a contributor, especially without Mandzukic in match 1 against Brazil.


Mexico
Past Success: Round of 8 in 1970 and 1986.


Expectations: After nearly missing the tournament, no team enters the World Cup as more of a wild card than El Tri. The team that has seen more managers in the past 9 months than an Arby’s will see in 9 years, has the talent to match their previous World Cup high-water marks and the soap opera drama to see them take the trip back north on June 24 with nothing to show for a tumultuous four year period.


Key Match: June 23 vs. Croatia. Croatia is probably better on paper than Mexico, especially given the trials and tribulations we’ve seen, but this Mexican team can be dynamic and could out-gun the Croats.


Crucial Player: Rafa Marquez (CB or CDM…in short, he plays in the middle and marks the other team’s best striker). In a group with Samuel Eto’o, Neymar, and, when El Tri face them, an un-suspended Mario Mandzukic, Marquez might have the toughest job of any centerback in the entire group stage. Look for him to be ultra physical, especially with the young Neymar, who he could rattle.


In the end…


1. Brazil (9 points)
2. Croatia (4 points)
3. Mexico (2 points)
4. Cameroon (1 point)


GROUP B or SORRY, AUSTRALIA


Australia
Past Success: Advanced to the knockout round in the 2006 World Cup (Germany).


Expectations: In this group, 3 points would be a really nice trip to Brazil for the Socceroos. They’re currently ranked 59th in the world by FIFA.


Key Match: June 13 vs. Chile. If they’re going to have any chance at advancing out of this group (they won’t), they’ll need to beat Chile and do it convincingly (they won’t).


Crucial Player: Mile Jedinak (MF). Jedinak is coming off of a surprisingly successful season in England with Crystal Palace and will captain this squad of older players who will try to defend solidly at the back and score on counter attacks.


Chile
Past Success: 3rd place, 1962 (played coincidentally in Chile)


Expectations: A dark horse to finish second in this group, given their acclimation to playing in South America and a FIFA ranking of 13.


Key Match: June 23 vs. Netherlands. This is probably Spain’s group to lose. It’s very likely both teams enter this match with three points (thanks Australia!!!) knowing a win will get them to the knockout round.


Crucial Player: Alexis Sanchez (Forward). Chile will need the Barcelona star (they’re all stars at Barcelona) to bury whatever chances he gets to score if they’re going to advance. They’ll also need Juventus midfielder Arturo Vidal to be the table-setter for the strikers that he consistently is in Italy.


Netherlands
Past Success: Runner-up to Spain in 2010. Also runners up in 1974 and 1978.


Expectations: Relatively low for a Dutch squad. Dutch football, or at least this version, is built around scoring goals. Scoring goals often comes from team chemistry. This team has none of that.


Key Match: June 13 vs. Spain. The rematch of the 2010 Final will set the tone for the group stage for the Dutch. A bad loss could infect the camp and cause an early exit.


Crucial Player: Arjen Robben (MF). Robben is a tough player to figure out. He’s blessed with incredible acceleration and a daft finishing touch. He’s also a diver who is commonly known to be disliked by a number of his fellow countrymen. His motivation, especially after a long and mostly successful run with Bayern Munich this season, will be a huge factor.


Spain
Past Success: Winners in 2010, their only victory in the tournament.


Expectations: Not as high as you’d expect. No European team has ever won the World Cup on South American soil and this Spanish side comes in with questions up front.


Key Match: June 13 vs. Netherlands. I can’t find a soul who thinks that Spain is going to lose to the Dutch in the opening match of the group. But tone setting is important. A shaky performance could give the Chileans added confidence heading into the second match in the group stage.


Crucial Player: Diego Costa (F). On a team with names like Xavi, Iniesta, Sergio Busquets, Iker Casillas, Cesc Fabregas, Pique, David Silva, and Sergio Ramos, Spain’s success will come down to whether or not the Brazilian born striker is healthy and can score goals with the proclivity he showed at Atletico Madrid in 2013-14. Anything but the best from Costa (who may have a hamstring tear that will keep him out of the tournament), a player with exactly one appearance with Spain to his name, means relying on some shaky, aging strikers for Spain, which could spell doom in the knockout stage.


In the end…


1. Spain (9 points)
2. Chile (6 points)
3. Netherlands (3 points)
4. Australia (0 points)


GROUP C or GROUP OF EASY KNOCKOUT STAGE OPPONENTS


Columbia
Past Success: Knockout stage in 1990. That’s it. That’s the greatest footballing success in Colombia’s history.


Expectations: They were very high. I say “were” because their best player, Radamel Falcao, tore his ACL earlier this year. Typical recovery times would have him out for the World Cup. The AS Monaco star however is on the provisional roster for Colombia and is, in his mind, on track to play in this tournament with about half the required rehab time. So your guess is as good as mine as to what the expectations should be. Especially in such a lackluster group.


Key Match: These four teams are so similar that every match is a crucial and hard to predict match. If Falcao was healthy, this group would flesh out differently. Without him, Colombia is probably not significantly better than Japan, Greece, or the Ivory Coast.


Crucial Player: Radamel Falcao (F). If he plays and is even close to healthy, he is electric enough to propel this team towards the semifinals. Colombia ran over their competition in qualifying for this World Cup in a most un-Colombian way. If Falcao is unhealthy, they’ll have an impossibly difficult time scoring goals with the burden left on the shoulders of Porto striker Jackson Martinez who is not Falcao.


Cote d’Ivoire
Past Success: They have only qualified for the World Cup twice (in 2006 and 2010) and did not advance past the group stage in either tournament.


Expectations: They come in ranked 21st in the world and possessing the world’s best midfielder in Yaya Toure and a group of prolific scorers in Didier Drogba (36 years old), Wilfried Bony, Gervinho, and Salomon Kalou. They can win this group if their lackluster, old, and somewhat patchwork defense can play even mildly well. Scoring goals won’t be the problem. An escape from the group will be a nice step for Les Elephants.


Key Match: June 19 v. Colombia. I promise I’m not being paid for each mention of the Colombian striker, but if he’s healthy, this will be an electric goal scoring fest. If he’s not healthy, it’ll be a must-win for Les Elephants.


Crucial Player: Yaya Toure (MF). We learned a lot of things about Yaya Toure this season. We learned that he is the world’s best center midfielder when he’s motivated. We learned that in the 89th minute of play, he’s faster than a Bugatti on a straightaway in the Utah desert. We learned that he’s lethal from the spot (penalty kicks). We learned that he really, really loves his birthday. What we’ll find out in Brazil is if he can lead an unbalanced team to success previously unseen by playing both ways, because his physicality will be needed defensively.


Greece
Past Success: Qualified for the World Cup in 1994 and 2010. Did not advance past the group stage. Sensing a theme? The Greeks did win the 2004 Euros (like the World Cup but for, well, European nations) in a surprise, so they have some history of success.


Expectations: Can they get out of the group? Certainly. FIFA has them ranked 10th in the world presently. Can they win a knockout stage match against one of the teams from Group D? That’s unlikely.


Key Match: June 24 vs. Cote d’Ivoire. It could be for all the marbles and a more favorable Round of 16 draw. Or it could be as part of a muddled, messy race to get an all-important three points in a group that will likely see a lot of draws.


Crucial Player: Vasilis Torosidis (LB). Playing on the left side defensively, Torosidis will be key to Greece’s attack. He’s also an outside specialist with 7 goals in his international career, despite playing from the back. He’ll be joined by everyone short of Jesse Consopolous.


Japan
Past Success: A 5-time qualifier, the Japanese have twice advanced out of the group stage (2002, 2010), making them perhaps the most successful nation in this awful group.


Expectations: This is not the 2010 Japanese team. Currently ranked 47th in the world, it’s hard to see this team providing much of a threat in the midfield, or on the back line. It’s also very difficult to gauge the expectations of Asian nations because they don’t face the same level of competition as the teams in UEFA (Europe) and CONMEBOL (South America). One thing this team can do, if their forwards get the opportunity, is score.


Key Match: June 14 v. Cote d’Ivoire. Conceding 3 points in this match will be a quick nail in the coffin for the Japanese national team.


Crucial Player: Shinji Kagawa (F). The Manchester United player and former Borussia Dortmund star isn’t so much the straw that stirs the drink as much as he is the glass, ice, tonic, gin, and lime wedge. Whether he was shackled playing for the Red Devils or whether his success at Dortmund was a mirage, he’ll need to put this team on his back in the group stage if they’re to repeat their success from 2010.


In the end…


1. Colombia (7 points)
2. Cote d’Ivoire (5 points)
3. Greece (2 points)
4. Japan (1 point)


GROUP D or THE REAL GROUP OF DEATH


Costa Rica
Past Success: Advanced to the knockout round in 1990. Haven’t advanced past the group stage in their two appearances since 1990.


Expectations: In this group, they’re going to play the spoiler. England, Italy, and Uruguay could all conceivably make a run at the semifinals. One of them is going to go home after only three matches and Costa Rica could have something to say about that.


Key Match: June 24 v. England. Who knows what will have happened before the final matches of Group D is played. But if England needs 3 points entering this match, those three points could be hard to come by.


Crucial Player: Bryan Ruiz (F). The PSV (Dutch League) goal-scorer will be the primary offensive focal point for a team who knows their place coming into this tournament. On a squad lacking players with true top level, Champions League-quality experience, Ruiz will have to lead by example. Especially in a group with the likes of Mario Balotelli, Luis Suarez, and Wayne Rooney, to name just 3 of the 69 players on the other three squads who bring a world more experience in the international game.


England
Past Success: The 13-time participant has only won the World Cup once, in 1966. England fans are totally unaware of this fact and don’t constantly remind themselves and the players of it.


Expectations: It’s England. In a World Cup. It doesn’t matter if they’re playing it on the surface of Neptune, the English fans, players, and the Football Association will all expect the trophy to come back to the motherland.


Key Match: June 19 v. Uruguay. Beyond the intrigue of Luis Suarez squaring off against a number of his Liverpool teammates (as many as six Reds could see significant playing or even starting time on this squad), a win by the English against a South American opponent on South American soil could be a really big statement. Especially against a 2010 semifinalist.


Crucial Player: Joe Hart (GK). I could literally pick any of the 23 players on this squad and make a coherent argument for why they’re important. For the young guys, one of them is going to need to be a dependable off-the-bench guy. For Daniel Sturridge, he’s going to need to show that he can score without Luis Suarez. For Steven Gerrard, he’ll need to show that, in perhaps his final World Cup, his selection was a wise one. But Hart is the wild card here. As a Manchester City fan I can tell you that Hart is the best goalkeeper in the world on occasion. Most other times, he’s erratic. Almost confused. Against the strikers England will face in its first two matches especially, Hart will need to be much closer to the former than the latter if The Three Lions are going to play in the Round of 16


Italy
Past Success: Winners in 1934, 1938, 1982, and 2006.


Expectations: In 2010, the Italians went to South Africa and finished fourth in their group, behind noted soccer powerhouses New Zealand, Paraguay, and Slovakia. For a four-time champion, with the level of talent possessed by the Italians, this was an embarrassment, only outdone by their 2006 Finals opponent France, who we’ll get to a bit later. In 2014, Italy carries with it the same burden of “No European Team Has Ever…” into South America that the likes of England and Germany and Spain do, but they don’t have the same pressure that those countries do. England, Germany, and Spain didn’t fail spectacularly in 2010. Expectations are probably mixed. But that’s when Gli Azzurri (the Italian national team’s nickname, not an aging fullback) is most dangerous. No one really expected the 2006 team to win the tournament, but they did, using their strong, 3 man defensive back line and goalkeeper Gigi Buffon to grind out victories. This team is no different, and frankly, the talent level may be better.


Key Match: June 14 v. England. A fantastic matchup of Serie A all-stars versus Barclays Premier League stars, this match will be the key to this entire group. A draw muddles the picture some. A victory by either side makes Uruguay’s path to the Round of 16 that much easier.


Crucial Player: Mario Balotelli (F). The enigmatic striker is without question, one of the world’s most talented players. Built like an NFL linebacker, Balotelli possesses slot receiver speed, and a flair for the most dramatic. He’s also the world’s most famous headcase. He is a man whose Wikipedia page reads like a sketch comedy show. He helped carry Italy to the finals of the 2012 European Championship, where they fell to Spain. If Super Mario is right (mentally), Italy can go a long way in this tournament because the roster around him is filled with experience, some youth, physicality, and dynamism. This will be one of the most fascinating teams to watch in Brazil.


Uruguay
Past Success: Winners in 1930 and 1950. Advanced to the semifinals in 2010.


Expectations: The Uruguayans are an interesting case in this tournament. Yes, they’re coming off of a miraculous run to the 2010 World Cup Semifinals, where they nearly beat the Dutch. Yes, they have one of the world’s three best goalscorers in his prime. Yes, they’re playing in their neighbor’s backyard. And yes, they have a really awesome flag. But Uruguay struggled mightily to qualify for this tournament, needing to win a final spot through a two-leg matchup with soccer non-power Jordan. They drew 0-0 at home, after trouncing the Jordanians in the Middle East. And so while expectations should be high, nothing that Uruguay has done since South Africa in 2010 would lead you to believe that they can make a serious run in this tournament.


Key Match: June 14 v. Costa Rica. It seems strange to pick this match because their next two opponents are England and Italy, respectively. But I think we’ll have a good idea which Uruguay has shown up by how they handle Costa Rica. They should win by multiple goals on talent alone. If they don’t, Italy and England might breathe a sigh of relief.


Crucial Player: Edinson Cavani (F). You would think that Luis Suarez, the aforementioned goal-scoring wizard, would be the crucial player, but it is Cavani who has often found it difficult to fit in to the Uruguayan offensive attack. And Cavani has just spent a year as a passive fixture in Paris Saint-Germain’s offensive attack, spending a good deal of time watching Zlatan Ibrahimovic (not in your picture for the 2014 World Cup) tear up Ligue 1 in France. Cavani cannot be passive in Brazil. Suarez showed at Liverpool this season that he’s at his best with a sidekick. Daniel Sturridge played that role perfectly, but unfortunately for fans of Los Charruas, Sturridge doesn’t have a Uruguayan grandmother. With Uruguay weak defensively and in the midfield, goal scoring will be key. Suarez can’t do it alone.


In the end…


1. Italy 7 points
2. England 7 points
3. Uruguay 1 point
4. Costa Rica 1 point


GROUP E or YOU’RE WELCOME, FRANCE


Ecuador
Past Success: This will be their third trip to a World Cup. In 2006, they advanced to the knockout round.


Expectations: None. Zero. Zilch. Unlike, well, nearly every other South American nation outside of Suriname, Ecuador has no history of success. Their first trip to the World Cup came in 2002. Currently ranked 28th in FIFA’s rankings, they are the underdoggiest of South American underdogs in this tournament, with only one player on their roster (read more about him in a second!) with recent big-time European club experience. A trip out of the group stage, even in perhaps the weakest group in the tournament, would be a great outcome for Ecuador.


Key Match: June 20 v. Honduras. Evenly matched in a lot of ways, if either team loses this match, their trip to Brazil will be over before it started.


Crucial Player: Antonio Valencia (MF). The captain and Manchester United player leads a squad of mostly Ecuadorian club players. It’s incumbent on a guy with a reputation for uneven play in England to be a rock for a team that will need on-the-field leadership.


France
Past Success: 14th appearance. Winners in 1998. Runners-up in 2006.


Expectations: France’s 2010 trip to South Africa went about as poorly as a trip could go. Les Blues pulled the soccer equivalent of being mistaken for a criminal and getting thrown in jail without a trial by lawyer, before eventually having your body dumped into a crocodile pond. Turmoil, in fighting, and a hated coach led France from group favorites to last place finishers (behind South Africa). Now, under new leadership, this club brings a wealth of big time experience and star power into a group that they should wipe the floor with. And very well might.


Key Match: June 15 v. Honduras. I’m inclined to say “none,” but I’ll go with the table-setter. This is not a team built with a solid foundation of togetherness. A draw or loss against a mediocre Honduras side could shake up Group E like (insert a metaphor for Shake n’ Bake).


Crucial Player: Franck Ribery (MF). There’s no wrong answer to this question. France lacks a real weakness. They’re so solid that they left Samir Nasri, starter and key player for EPL champions Manchester City, at home. Ribery is a vexing player. His temper has gotten the best of him in the past. But his talent is unparalleled in this group. If France does have a weakness (they don’t), it’s up front (it’s not). Ribery’s goal scoring ability on the wing will be a boost to whomever starts up front between Karim Benzema, Loic Remy, and Olivier Giroud.


Honduras
Past Success: Qualified for two previous World Cups, including 2010, where they finished last in Group H, behind fellow 2014 Group E participant Switzerland.


Expectations: A dark horse pick here in the States, I think people forget that they’re not playing this tournament in Honduras. The roster features a number of MLS players, and a couple of English Championship division guys, but no true star. A first-time trip out of the Group Stage would be deemed a big success.


Key Match: June 25 v. Switzerland. The two played to a 0-0 draw in the 2010 Group Stage. Given the relative equality of the non-France teams in this group, all of the points are going to be vital.


Crucial Player: Roger Espinoza (MF). The Wigan Athletic man is a dynamic wing player, with EPL experience. As rudimentary of a point as it may be, sometimes having a singular dynamic force can be all the difference.


Switzerland
Past Success: Making their 10th appearance, the Swiss haven’t reached the Quarterfinals since 1954.


Expectations: Switzerland comes into this tournament as a top-10 team (no. 8) in FIFA’s rankings, which would surprise you if you took FIFA’s rankings really seriously. That said, on talent alone, the Swiss are much better than Ecuador and Honduras. The problem is that they’ve never really put that talent together in a World Cup. It’s a roster made up of guys who play very different styles of football, in very different leagues: (Serie A (Italy) and the Bundesliga (Germany)). Much like with Uruguay, talent is wonderful, but you can have great ingredients and come out with a really crappy dish.


Key Match: June 25 v. Honduras. Group E’s second place spot will likely come down to this match.


Crucial Player: Gokhan Inler (MF). The captain and Napoli midfielder is in every way the straw that stirs the Swiss drink (cocoa with mini-marshmallows). The defensive back for Switzerland is solid, as is the rest of the midfield. It’s up front where the strikers will need great service from the mid. It’ll be incumbent on Inler to place balls well for the inexperienced strikers to poach from.


In the end…


1. France 9 points
2. Switzerland 6 points
3. Honduras 1 point
4. Ecuador 1 point


GROUP F or A REALLY UNCOMPELLING BATTLE FOR SECOND PLACE


Argentina
Past Success: Participating in their 15th World Cup, the Argentines won the tournament in 1978 and 1986. They suffered a disappointing 4-0 loss to Germany in the 2010 World Cup quarterfinals.


Expectations: High. But how high? Currently ranked 6th by FIFA, Argentina boasts one of the two most recognizable active soccer players in the world in Lionel Messi. Messi will turn 27 during this tournament, and will likely have two more World Cup go-rounds in his career. But so far, the player regarded by some as the best in the world has been a disappointment at the world’s biggest tournament, most recently netting zero goals in South Africa. Offensively, Argentina is a powerhouse. Beyond Messi, there’s Sergio Agüero, Gonzalo Higuaín, Ezequiel Lavezzi, and Angel di Maria, all stars in the European game and all capable of big things on the pitch. The questions for Argentina are defensive depth and in net, where the likely starter, Sergio Romero, is a less than elite goalkeeper. The best thing going for Argentina outside of their offensive attack, though, is a relatively easy path to the quarterfinals, assuming a victory in Group F.


Key Match: Not Applicable. Argentina is many classes better than any of three teams they’ll face to start this tournament. Anything short of 9 points in those three matches would be a disaster, even given their defensive questions.


Crucial Player: Pablo Zabaleta (RB). At Manchester City, Zabaleta made a name for himself playing end to end, often streaking up the pitch past the midfielder playing in front of him, crossing balls into the box. He was a rock for a Man City team that battled injuries throughout their championship campaign in 2013-14. In Brazil, Zabaleta will anchor an otherwise flimsy defensive line. He’ll get help from the supremely physical (see: dirty) Javier Mascherano playing a defensive midfield position, but with all of their offensive firepower, Argentina will need Zabaleta to be more defensive-minded than he’s been accustomed to being in club play.


Bosnia and Herzegovina
Past Success: Absolutely none as this is the first time Bosnia and Herzegovina have qualified for a World Cup final.


Expectations: Also absolutely none. If having players with accent marks in their names equaled goals, Bosnia and Herzegovina (B and H from here on out) would be our champions. Outside of that, you’re looking at a team ranked by FIFA in the mid-20s with a star striker (Edin Dzeko), a Premier League goalkeeper (Asmir Begovic), and 21 other guys of similar skill to each other. Of note, B and H played Argentina in late 2013 in a friendly (in the common city of St. Louis, Missouri, USA) and lost 2-0 and followed that up with a 2-0 loss to Egypt.


Key Match: June 21 v. Nigeria. Not to take anything away from Iran (but I am), but this should be your battle for second place in this group.


Crucial Player: Edin Dzeko (F). The crucial player is not always the biggest star, but in B and H’s case, it is. It’s unrealistic to think that the first-time participant can have any modicum of success in Brazil without a big tournament from Dzeko. That will mean lots of poached goals and physical play with opposing defenders. If Dzeko shies away from that, B and H will be left without much of a prayer.


Iran
Past Success: Participants in 1978, 1998, and 2006, Iran has never exited the Group Stage.


Expectations: About as high as you’d expect for a team made up almost entirely of Iranian club team players.


Key Match: June 21 v. Argentina. Because, why not? Expectations for this match will be lower than perhaps any other team will face in this tournament. The gulf in class is enormous. With nothing to lose, this is Iran’s World Cup Final.


Crucial Player: I’d be lying if I said I watched a lot of Iran Pro League football. I don’t know a single player on this roster outside of Fulham winger Ashkan Dejagah, who I don’t expect to be much of a dominant force in this tournament. Anyone who says they know more about the Iranian national team is either Iranian, an insane person, or a really terrible liar.


Nigeria
Past Success: This will be the Super Eagles (best nickname in international football) fourth trip to the World Cup with runs out of the group stage in 1994 and 1998.


Expectations: There’s certainly hope for a run out of this group. In 2010, Nigeria was paired with Argentina, Korea Republic, and Greece and mustered only 1 point (a draw with South Korea). That South Korea team advanced to the knockout stage with just 4 points. My point is, as long as Nigeria beats Iran, they’ve got a shot. But an extended run in this tournament is not in the forecast.


Key Match: June 21 v. Bosnia and Herzegovina. Don’t expect many goals from this match and don’t set your DVR to record it, hoping to catch one of the classics of the sport. This will be a brutally physical, slow, sludge of a match. Nigeria doesn’t have any true goal scoring prowess and will rely on a physical backline and their crucial player to slow down Edin Dzeko and try to keep this match 0-0 and maybe steal a goal late.  


Crucial Player: John Obi Mikel (DM). Mikel is not the kind of midfielder you can expect goals from. In 57 international matches, the 27 year old Chelsea player has 4 goals. He’s not here to score. He’s here to defend. In the past, Nigeria was known for their attack. That won’t be the case in 2014. In Brazil, they’ll need their backline and their central defensive midfielder to key them to victory (by draw).


In the end…


1. Argentina 9 points
2. Bosnia and Herzegovina 4 points
3. Nigeria 4 points
4. Iran 0 points


GROUP G or THE GROUP OF DEATH IF YOU IGNORE ALL THE FATAL FLAWS


Germany
Past Success: 17 time participants, and three time winners (most recently as West Germany in 1990). Germany finished 3rd in the 2006 and 2010 tournaments.


Expectations: Championship or bust. Regarded by many as the best side in Europe right now, Germany is that continent’s favorite to win its first South American World Cup.


Fatal Flaw: A special category for this group. Here in the US, we’ve heard a lot about how this is the GROUP OF DEATH and for the US, it is in a very symbolic way because all of these teams have recently eliminated the US from World Cups. But each team has a very glaring fatal flaw. For Germany it’s their complete lack of a true, natural striker. They will likely bring only two into this tournament. One of them is 35 year old Miroslav Klose and the other is 21 year old Kevin Volland. Each have their own fairly obvious problems. The midfield is the best and deepest in the world. There’s no argument there. Anyone who tries to argue by using the names “Xavi” and “Iniesta” is wrong. Germany’s second team midfield is still one of the three best in the world. But who is going to score those goals? The 35 year old who probably can’t give you 90 minutes or the 21 year old with exactly 1 international appearance in his young career?


Key Match: June 16 v. Portugal. A contender for the most intriguing match of the entire Group Stage, this will be the ultimate battle of team v. player. Team most often wins that contest, but player isn’t often as good as Cristiano Ronaldo in his prime.


Crucial Player: Philipp Lahm (DF or MF). There are very few players in the world like Germany’s captain. He’s my height (if you just stumbled upon this blog with no idea who I am or who Philipp Lahm is, I’m 5’8” on a good day), but plays a physical game. He’s a skilled enough midfielder that, despite being a natural fullback, could probably start on the wing on about 27 of the other midfields in this tournament. Where he starts for Germany is basically irrelevant (and as of me typing this, Germany has yet to finalize their 23-man roster). Lahm is going to play everywhere and do everything. If he does that well, Germany is a good bet to break through.


Ghana
Past Success: While it might seem like Ghana has the World Cup pedigree of Germany, this is only their third trip to the tournament, with their first being in 2006. After beating the US in 2010, Ghana advanced to the quarterfinals before ultimately losing to Uruguay on penalty kicks.


Expectations: Put it this way: Ghana would love to trade places with their African rivals Nigeria. The Black Stars (it’s their nickname, not a Donald Sterling thing) might be ranked just 38th in the world, but they boast far more talent on whole than any other African nation. Coming off of a near-trip to the semifinals in 2010 has to be a big feather in their cap. They’d just rather be in Nigeria’s group than this one.


Fatal Flaw: Goaltending. Whomever starts in net is coming in with very few international appearances and the experience of playing in either the Norwegian League, the First Capital Plus Bank Premier League (Ghana), or the  Premier Soccer League (South Africa). In other words, they haven’t seen the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo, the German midfield, or um…Jozy Altidore, very often.


Key Match: June 16 v. United States. Simply put: a must-win for either side, right out of the gate.


Crucial Player: Kevin Prince-Boateng (MF, FW). Prince doesn’t necessarily have a position. He can score goals. He can defend and do it very physically. And he can control the ball. He’s a dynamic player who still at age 27 hasn’t quite figured out what he is and how to be the best at whatever that is. If he plays well, Ghana could be the surprise team of this tournament.


Portugal
Past Success: This will be just the sixth time that Portugal has appeared in a World Cup. Their best finish was in 1966 when they wound up in third. In 2010, they lost 1-0 to Spain in the Round of 16.


Expectations: High. Even though they needed to win a playoff against Sweden to qualify for the World Cup, Portugal comes in ranked 3rd in the world. Of course, much of that is due to FIFA’s weirdness. Portugal isn’t the third best team in Europe, never mind the third best in the world. But with Cristiano Ronaldo in his prime and playing probably the most consistently great soccer of his career, an exit before the knockout stage would be devastating.


Fatal Flaw: One player teams do not win the World Cup. Sure, there are 10 other guys on the field with Ronaldo who play at high levels, but let’s not lie, if Ronaldo has a bad tournament, Portugal has no hope. If he excels, Portugal could, maybe, win the whole thing. No other country with even a hint of a chance at glory relies so much on one singular force the way that Portugal does.


Key Match: June 16 v. Germany. A win would put the world on notice. A loss would put Portugal behind the 8 ball with little-to-no margin for error.


Crucial Player: If you’re unsure, you haven’t been reading this section.


United States
Past Success: A 10-time participant, the US’s best ever finish was 3rd place back when my grandfather was 3 years old (1930). Recently, the US won its group in 2010 only to be ousted by Ghana. They failed to get out of their group in 2006,  somehow made it to the quarterfinals in 2002, and embarrassed themselves by finishing in last place in the 1998 World Cup.


Expectations: Prior to the announcement of the group pairings, I don’t think expectations could have been higher. Look, we’re the United States. We don’t go light on the self-absorption. This is probably the best side the US has ever fielded in a World Cup and Jurgen Klinsmann is the best coach the US has ever had. That said, the march to the knockout stage could be a very, very brief one.


Fatal Flaw: The US isn’t really that good. Yes, I believe that this is the best US team my eyes have ever seen. And yes, I think that the future of American soccer, assuming Klinsmann stays on past this World Cup (he recently signed an extension through 2018) is brighter than it has ever been. But if I’m going to be critical of the level of competition that other country’s players face in club play, I have to do the same with the US. The American backline (pick any four guys…we’ll go with Geoff Cameron, Matt Besler, Fabian Johnson, and DaMarcus Beasley) doesn’t defend against the German midfield when they play Costa Rica in qualifying. They don’t face a striker like Cristiano Ronaldo when they play Panama. And they don’t face an attack like Ghana’s when they’re playing Jamaica (and yes, I know that Cameron plays at Stoke City in England). As a unit, especially defensively, the U.S. has very few opportunities to play the best sides in the world in games that matter. See: a friendly victory of Germany’s C team last year. This team will be ready to go and I expect them to play their best. But sometimes, your best only leaves you in fourth place.


Key Match: June 16 v. Ghana. It’s probably a little dramatic to say that the future of American soccer depends on the outcome of this match, but I’m a pretty dramatic guy. A win and hope will be high against a Portugal side that the US could conceivably draw against. A loss or even a draw and you’ve got to beat Germany and Portugal and I just don’t see that as an option.


Crucial Player: Michael Bradley (MF). He’s the best guy that we’ve got. Many people, myself included, thought that Bradley was a product of his father being the coach (as he was for the 2010 run). We were wrong. The Bradley that has blossomed under Klinsmann is a force from end-to-end. With the ball at his feet, you feel confident that Bradley is going to make the right pass 100% of the time. I can’t remember a US player instilling that sense of confidence in me. Any success that the US will have in Brazil will be a result of how well Bradley plays.


In the end…


1. Germany 9 points
2. Portugal 6 points
3. Ghana 1 point
4. USA 1 point


GROUP H or ARE YOU REALLY GONNA SCREW THIS ONE UP, BELGIUM?


Algeria
Past Success: Three previous trips. Three previous Group Stage defeats.


Expectations: See: Past Success.


Key Match: June 22 v. Korea Republic. Loser goes home. Winner probably goes home too, though they’ll at least get to hang on to hope a bit longer.


Crucial Player: Islam Slimani (F). The Sporting Lisboa striker has 17 international appearances and 9 goals, which is a pretty good ratio when you’re a striker for Algeria.


Belgium
Past Success: 12 appearances in the World Cup has netted Belgium just one top-4 finish (1986). Most recently, they have spent World Cup season sitting at home in 2006 and 2010, falling to 71st in the world in 2007.


Expectations: Immense. As recently as October of last year, Belgium was ranked fifth in the world. An injury to striker Christian Benteke, in the past, would have severely diminished expectations, but now, Belgium will simply plug-in electric 21 year old wunderkind Romelu Lukaku. Pair that with one of the cakiest of cakewalks to the knockout stage and we’re in full-blown Belgian Football Renaissance mode. This is probably just the beginning of an era of elite footballing for Belgium, but it could be a very sweet beginning.  


Key Match: June 22 v. Russia. The opening match against Algeria should be an easy three points. Russia will provide more of a test for Belgium.


Crucial Player: Thibaut Courtois (GK). Courtois is perhaps the best goalkeeper in the world right now at the age of 22. The Group Stage shouldn’t be a problem, but the knockout stage could see him staring at the familiar face of Portugal and Real Madrid star Cristiano Ronaldo. This is a Belgian side without any glaring weakness and so in that situation, it is incumbent on the greatest strengths to play to their full potential.


Korea Republic aka Not The Bad One
Past Success: Semifinalists (as the co-host nation) in 2002, Korea Republic, aka South Korea, has never gotten that close in any of their other 7 trips to the World Cup.


Expectations: Not high. The 2002 team this is not. Presently ranked just 55th in the world, it’s a team without much of an identity, bringing in players from seven different leagues in Asia and Europe. Qualifying was no easy task either, as South Korea lost a home match to Iran and drew with non-power Lebanon. Of note: a 2013 friendly loss to fellow Group H opponent Russia.


Key Match: June 17 v. Russia. THE REMATCH!!! Okay, maybe it’s not that dramatic, but this is likely going to be the “winner takes second place” match in the group, assuming both beat Algeria, as they should.


Crucial Player: Park Chu-Young (FW). Park has had very little success during his time at Arsenal as he’s seen very little playing time, but on the international stage, he’s shown himself to be South Korea’s best scoring threat.


Russia
Past Success: Since the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia has failed to advance to the knockout stage, only qualifying for the World Cup once, in 2002.


Expectations: Favorites to win the whole thing, according to one source I spoke to while riding a horse shirtless in a field for no reason. But seriously, that’s a terrible joke. You deserve better. This Russian team is led by coach Fabio Capello, who coached England’s national team from 2008-2012. Capello has also coached at Real Madrid, Juventus, and AC Milan. He is an interesting choice for a team made up of 22 Russian League players and one guy who plays for Sevilla, as Capello’s Italian roots and style do not exactly match with whatever it is the Russian style of football is. That said, it’s a group of players who are talented enough to get out of Group H.


Key Match: June 17 v. South Korea. See above.


Crucial Player: Aleksandr Kerzhakov (FW). Truth be told, I probably could have just made up a name here, but Kerzhakov is part of an electric front line at Zenit Saint Petersburg, where he takes a bit of a backseat to Brazilian star Hulk. There’s no backseat on this team. He’ll need to finish his chances with consistency if Russia is to have any run in this tournament.


In the end…


1. Belgium 9 points
2. Russia 4 points
3. Korea Republic 3 points
4. Algeria 1 point


ROUND OF 16 MATCHES


Brazil v. Chile
Brazil beat Chile 3-0 in the Round of 16 at the 2010 World Cup with a less talented squad while not playing at home. I think Brazil’s attack is just too much for the Chileans to overcome. 4-1 Brazil.


Spain v. Croatia
The Spaniards will pass Croatia to death and defeat them in a clinical, if not totally uninspiring 1-0 manner.


Colombia v. England
This should be a real gem of a match regardless of who finishes in second place in Group D. This is no exception. I like the youth and depth of England to win this one in extra time, with a big nod to their defense shutting down Falcao. 2-1 in extra time to England.


Cote d’Ivoire v. Italy
Too much talent for Italy and not enough defensive skill to stop it for Cote d’Ivoire. 2-0 Italy prevails.


France v. Bosnia and Herzegovina
Another case of talent winning out. 3-0 in favor of the French.


Switzerland v. Argentina
Perhaps the largest gap in talent that you’ll find in the Round of 16, Argentina cruises past an overmatched Swiss side 3-0, continuing what looks to be an impossibly easy march to the Quarterfinals.


Germany v. Russia
Russia has the striker that Germany would love, but Germany has the midfield that everyone envies. They control the ball and bury two in the second half in a nervy 2-0 victory over Putin’s Boys.


Portugal v. Belgium
The most intriguing of all the potential matchups you see here. Ronaldo picks up a hat trick, but the balance of the Belgian squad prevails in a thrilling 4-3 match.


QUARTERFINAL MATCHES


Brazil v. England
A quartet of must-see matches is headlined by this battle of the world’s soccer super-power and the sport’s home. A plucky England side keeps it close late into the second half before Willian buries the only goal the hosts will need. Brazil wins 1-0.


France v. Germany
Germany’s lack of a scoring threat up front doesn’t catch up to them just yet, as they escape with a 2-1 victory, through penalty kicks, against a France side that will have made everyone forget the 2010 fiasco.


Spain v. Italy
A rematch of the 2012 European final, this match is just a repeat, as Spain’s possession drives the Italians crazy. Look for Italy to lose a man to a red card late in the first half, as Spain cruises to a 3-0 victory and a spot in the semifinals.


Argentina v. Belgium
The magical ride from also-ran in 2007 to world power in 2014 comes to a painful end for Belgium as Lionel Messi nets a brace and Argentina prevails with a 3-2 win in extra time, finally providing the Argentines with a real challenge on the pitch.


SEMIFINAL MATCHES


Brazil v. Germany
After struggling to put England away, Brazil comes out guns blazing against Germany, shocking them early with 2 goals in the first 10 minutes. Germany’s lack of a striker finally catches up to them as they can’t close the gap, ultimately falling 3-1 to Brazil.


Argentina v. Spain
Lionel Messi v. FC Barcelona, essentially. Advantage: Messi. Despite not possessing the defensive prowess of Italy, Argentina plays opossum against Spain, allowing them to control 75% of the match, but pouncing on mistakes and finishing on counter attacks, winning 2-1 to set up the most dramatic World Cup final in recent memory.


NO ONE CARES ABOUT THE THIRD PLACE MATCH MATCH


Germany v. Spain
Germany takes home their third consecutive third-place finish with a 2-1 victory.


WORLD CUP FINAL MATCH


Brazil v. Argentina

The two South American neighbors with little love lost between them. The two Barcelona attacking stars (Messi and Neymar) facing off. There will be every reason to watch this match. If it happens, I expect a shootout the likes of which you just don’t see at this level. Brazil’s strong defensive line is shredded by the speed of Messi and Aguero and the crossing of di Maria. Argentina’s weakness in goal is exploited repeatedly by Neymar, Willian, and Hulk. The two sides end 90 minutes tied at 4 goals apiece, but Brazil’s bench depth makes all the difference as a goal early in the second half of extra time by Fernandinho, a player who barely made the 23-man roster, gives Brazil their sixth World Cup title with a 5-4 victory.

2014 NFL Mock Draft or How I Love Teddy Bridgewater When No One Else Seems To

The 2013 NFL Draft was a dumpster fire when it came down to high-end talent. The top overall pick, Eric Fisher, was a very inconsistent pass-blocker for the Kansas City Chiefs. You would have to go to Sheldon Richardson at 13 to find the first player who was a consistent performer for his team in 2013.


No one would say that we didn’t see it coming. I barely wrote a mock draft last year. I provided a list that was highly inaccurate with absolutely no analysis. One of the things that makes amateur drafts so interesting is known commodities. Last year’s first round had really none of that. Only 4 offensive skill position players were drafted. The first seven overall picks were offensive or defensive linemen. The Offensive Rookie of the Year was Eddie Lacy, who was picked at the end of the second round (I will say, to toot my own horn, I called him winning ROY).


The 2014 Draft is different in the way that Alabama-style BBQ is different from compressed sawdust. The 2014 Draft is full of questions, intrigue, and stars. It’s likely that at least 4 quarterbacks will be taken in the first round, not to mention at least 5 wide receivers. Oh, and potentially the best pass-rushing prospect in decades. And that doesn’t include a handful of players who I think have potential to become stars at other positions.


You would have been either foolish or a future-predicting gypsy if you had predicted the Houston Texans would have the first pick in this draft. But 2013 was a special kind of disaster in Houston. Injuries, terrible quarterback play, and their head coach suffering a cardiac event during halftime of a game all combined to lead a lock playoff team to the ignominy of having the worst record in the NFL.


But with great ignominy comes great fortune. The 2012 Kansas City Chiefs were terrible and their prize was a right tackle getting burned by speedy D-linemen. The 2013 Houston Texans were terrible and their prize could be a 10-15 year franchise quarterback or a future Hall of Fame pass rusher. Or a sneakily dynamic wide receiver, who just happens to have been college teammates with the Texans first round pick in 2013. Whatever way Houston goes, they really can’t fail, on paper.


As for this mock draft, I always wrestle with the structure. On one hand, I like pretending to be the GM of each team. On the other hand, I’m a competitive contrarian, a dangerous mixture when you’re trying to be right.


This go-round, I’ll try to predict what each team will actually do. There’s going to be some contrarian in there (see: Teddy Bridgewater) based on my strong opinions about how good a player is. As always, I don’t predict trades in the mock, but I will talk a little bit where trades make sense.


1. Houston Texans select Blake Bortles (QB/Central Florida)
This is not the pick I would make. I would take Teddy Bridgewater. I think he’s the most complete of the quarterbacks in this draft and a guy who will be ready to start on Day 1. There are a lot of elements at play with Bridgewater’s fall in stock over the past few months, since his bowl game performance (35-45, 447 Yards, 3 TD against Miami (FL) in the Russell Athletic Bowl). He had a poor performance in his pro-day at Louisville, sure, but I think the bigger issue at play with Teddy Bridgewater is the continued typecasting of black quarterbacks. Bridgewater is 6’2”, so he’s not a “big quarterback.” So scouts can’t make Cam Newton comparisons. He’s also not terribly athletic. He’s a pocket passer with some mobility who, unlike his competitors in this draft, was given great responsibilities at the line of scrimmage to identify defenses and audible when necessary. He was a consistent three-year starter who made a good Louisville program great.


I really enjoy the comparison between Johnny Manziel and Bridgewater. If the dynamic, mobile, 5’11” quarterback was black and the smart (in a football-sense), polished 6’2” quarterback was white, we wouldn’t be having this conversation. There’s a long line of undersized, athletic black quarterbacks who never got a chance in the NFL. There are not a lot of polished 6’2” white quarterbacks who didn’t get their chance.


All of this leaves us with Blake Bortles. Bortles “looks the part” (scout speak for “Big white guy with strong arm”). In his two seasons as a starter at UCF, Bortles took a huge step forward. At the start of the 2013 season, you wouldn’t have found a mock draft with Bortles’ name on it. He was a good quarterback in 2012, but did nothing dynamic, accumulating zero 300-yard passing games. In 2013, he had 5, including 301 in his BCS bowl win over Baylor.


It is thought that Bortles has the greatest set of tools now and the most room to develop and I think Houston will go in that direction, rather than taking what I think is the safe bet with Bridgewater or the big risk/big reward with John Football.


Nearly every mock draft you’ll see will have Jadeveon Clowney here. I don’t think that makes a lot of sense. I’ll get to that in a moment.


2. St. Louis Rams select Greg Robinson (OT/Auburn)
In a perfect world for the St. Louis Rams, they trade down towards the bottom of the Top 10 to select the big, physical wide receiver they so desperately need. When I see them connected to Clemson wideout Sammy Watkins, I don’t necessarily see the point. Watkins is a top-level talent and someone worthy of the top pick in this star-studded draft. But the Rams drafted a speedy receiver last year in Tavon Austin. Watkins is bigger than Austin, but isn’t the sort of presence that Texas A&M’s Mike Evans is. Evans would be a great addition to this offense.


In the world of this mock draft where I don’t predict trades, the Rams end up with Greg Robinson to try, once again, to strengthen their offensive line. It feels like the Rams are always drafting offensive tackles. Baylor’s Jason Smith was the Rams’ first round pick in 2009 (with the second pick, no less). Smith was never able to hold down either end of the line and is now a bit of a journeyman. Recent second round pick Rodger Saffold has done a good job playing the left tackle position for the Rams.


Robinson would give St. Louis the ability to slide Saffold over to the right side of the line. His performance at the NFL Combine garnered rave reviews as did his redshirt sophomore season with the Tigers, where he earned All-SEC honors, despite being on no one’s radar at the start of the year, much like Bortles. He’s a big, 330 pound tackle with unrivaled quickness for his size. That’s the perfect prescription for a team that has had a very difficult time keeping their franchise quarterback upright during his young career.


The Rams have an additional pick in the first round (their own) as this pick is the final piece of compensation from the Washington Football Team, who traded away their future for a quarterback with some minor knee issues.


For what it’s worth, if Washington was picking here and Clowney was available, he’d be their pick. If he was gone, Khalil Mack would be a nice fall-back option for Washington. Alas, RG3.


3. Jacksonville Jaguars select Teddy Bridgewater (QB/Louisville)
This is a pick that really has to come down to the best available quarterback on the Jaguars board between Bortles, Bridgewater, and John Football.


Popular belief is that the Jaguars need to do something flashy and exciting to put people in the seats at Whatever It’s Called Today Stadium. But flashy has really never been the Jaguars modus operandi.


Offensive tackle is another area of weakness for the Jaguars, but they used their second overall pick last year on Luke Joeckel. I cannot see a circumstance where they would draft another offensive tackle from Texas A&M with a top 3 pick the following year.


Jacksonville is a team with a crushing list of needs. Manziel might bring extra attention to the Jaguars’ offseason workouts, but Bridgewater will provide the steady leadership they’ve lacked since David Garrard’s health declined. Plus, Bridgewater would be playing in a warm weather city, in his home state.


Look, I recognize based on all of the prospect lists and rankings and mocks that Bridgewater’s stock has plummeted. I can’t say just how stupid this is, because I can’t say enough good things about Bridgewater. I watched him a lot in college. If he’s not a top level QB in the NFL in 3 years, I’ll stop writing my silly little blog.


4. Cleveland Browns select Johnny Manziel (QB/Texas A&M)
The list of quarterbacks currently on the Browns roster: Brian Hoyer (recovering from a torn ACL), Alex Tanney (2012 undrafted free agent out of Monmouth College of Illinois). If the Browns don’t draft one of the three top QBs with this pick, assume that Kevin Costner is at the helm on draft day and he’s busy yelling at Jennifer Garner. MOVIES! (NOTE: The Browns have since signed Vince Young and Tyler Thigpen, which should change this pick roughly 0%)


Manziel was an electric college football quarterback. I’m far from convinced that he’s going to be a star in any system in the NFL. In the right system, with the right coach (San Francisco, Seattle…you know, teams that don’t need QBs) his game will translate well, because good coaches adapt.


The one real advantage for the Browns in drafting Manziel is that it will get Browns fans excited about football for the first time in the history of man and could create a really fascinating QB/WR combo with Josh Gordon. Manziel will probably need to be ready to start on Game 1. He surely won’t be lacking in confidence. We’ll see what happens from there.


5. Oakland Raiders select Sammy Watkins (WR/Clemson)
Much like with the New York Yankees, there’s this weird thing that the Raiders front office does where every move seems calculated to keep happy the ghost of their deceased owner.


Well, Al Davis would love Sammy Watkins, assuming that he had his glasses on. Watkins is a burner, with some size. The Raiders drafted Darrius Heyward-Bey with a top-10 pick to fill the role that Watkins was born to do. Heyward-Bey didn’t work out because he wasn’t a precise route runner or catcher of the football. Watkins has great hands and at this point in his career is a much more polished route runner than Heyward-Bey is right now.


But let’s be real, with Sammy Watkins, it’s about the speed. He will give the Raiders the downfield threat they’ve coveted for over a decade. Now we just have to see if Matt Schaub can get the ball to him.


6. Atlanta Falcons select Jadeveon Clowney (DE/South Carolina)
This seems rather unrealistic, that Clowney, the consensus top player in this draft would fall out of the Top 5, but tell me what team in the top 5 really needs a pass rusher above their projected pick. There’s plenty of talk about the Tom Savages, Derek Carrs, and Jimmy Garoppolos of the world, yes. And any of the above quarterback hungry teams could wait. But why would they wait? Cleveland and Jacksonville have been looking for a franchise quarterback for a long time and Houston is not that many pieces away from being competitive again. Why draft a project? Why draft a guy like Savage who played at three different colleges? Why draft a guy who played at Eastern Illinois? Why draft David Carr’s brother?


To reiterate on who is going to take Clowney: Is it Houston with Case Keenum, having already gone the route of drafting a pass rusher with the top overall pick in a star-heavy draft (Mario Williams)? St. Louis with one of the best pass rushing tandems in the NFL in Robert Quinn and Chris Long? Jacksonville with Chad Henne as their starting quarterback? Cleveland with one of the league’s best defenses and ½ a quarterback on their roster (with the additions of Young and Thigpen, 1 ½ and I’m talking about Tyler Thigpen) and an agitated fan base? Oakland with zero weapons at the receiver position?


Atlanta makes the most sense as Clowney’s landing spot. Offensive tackle might be a bigger need right now, but Atlanta can afford to not address that need with this pick in a way that the teams above them cannot. Atlanta has had a problem getting to the opposing quarterback for quite some time. Clowney should come in motivated, essentially playing in his own backyard (about 230 miles from his hometown of Rock Hill, SC). And if he needs more motivation, Drew Brees and Cam Newton will be waiting for him.


7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers select Jake Matthews (OT/Texas A&M)
Tampa is the wildest of cards so far, even wilder than Jacksonville. I would have thought that Tampa was happy with Mike Glennon, their third round pick last year, who performed fairly well in his time as the Bucs starting quarterback. Then Tampa brought in free agent veteran Josh McCown, who is expected to compete for the starting job. But Tampa is still interviewing quarterbacks. Maybe they’re just doing their due diligence (even New England brought in John Football). But it all seems a little weird.


Before Tampa tries to plug in a 36 year old quarterback to lead them to the promised land, they need someone to protect his blind-side. Matthews is that guy to me. He’s 1A to Greg Robinson’s 1 at the tackle position and would be the smart, if also unsexy pick, for the very confusing Buccaneers.


8. Minnesota Vikings select Khalil Mack (OLB/Buffalo)
Outside linebacker is far from a need for the Vikings, but their biggest needs (quarterback and interior offensive linemen) can’t really be satisfied here (I am not this high on Fresno State QB Derek Carr, who you’ll see slotted to Minnesota in many mock drafts).


Mack is a huge value at 8. The experts have him slotted in as a Top 5 player in this draft.


Let’s be real here, I’ve never seen him play because he went to the University of Buffalo. You’ve probably never seen him play either. But his size and combine numbers look really impressive. So I’ll just assume that he won’t be Aaron Curry Version 2.0.


9. Buffalo Bills select Taylor Lewan (OT/Michigan)
Buffalo is a team that would really love to have a player like Mack fall to them, but it’s highly unlikely that happens (what’s most likely is someone trades up from the teens to select Mack if he falls past Cleveland).


Much like with Minnesota and Derek Carr, Buffalo consistently gets slotted with Mike Evans, Texas A&M’s big, physical, one-year wonder wide receiver. This is another example of a really good prospect coming in to a situation where he can’t be of maximum assistance. Oakland has a mostly proven quarterback in Matt Schaub and a real need for a down-field playmaker. St. Louis is probably one offensive tackle and a quality receiver away from serious playoff contention.


Mike Evans would not make Buffalo a playoff team, especially with Robert Woods and Steve Johnson already at the receiver position. If you look at the NFL as a pyramid of building blocks, tackles are the base of that pyramid with quarterbacks. Wideouts are somewhere in the middle.


Lewan is a very big, very physical tackle. His arrival would mean that Cordy Glenn would likely need to move over to right tackle full-time. The combination of Lewan and Glenn would give Buffalo a St. Louis-like situation where their offensive line would finally be sured up, giving last year’s first round pick EJ Manuel every chance he needs to succeed, which if you read last year’s mock draft, you know I don’t think he will.


10. Detroit Lions select Darqueze Dennard (CB/Michigan State)
Detroit is in a great position to get a real player of need. For as long as I can remember, Detroit has struggled to stop other teams’ passing offenses. This is an unfortunate circumstance because they play the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears twice a year and, outside of that, play in a league that is fixated on passing attacks. The Lions have essentially been a farmer with no scarecrow (agriculture references in mock drafts are the new black).


This pick should come down to whether they like Dennard or Oklahoma State’s Justin Gilbert more. Gilbert is a good corner, but Dennard is the clear best corner, to me. His size and style remind me of Darrelle Revis. He’s a true man-corner (that is, he’s the kind of corner who can line up in single coverage against someone’s best receiver and keep him in check). I was very impressed with Dennard each time I watched Michigan State this season because I rarely heard his name spoken. Those are the best cornerbacks. If you’re not getting beat and they’re not throwing it in your direction, you’re doing your job well. Dennard does his very well.


11. Tennessee Titans select Justin Gilbert (CB/Oklahoma State)
Tennessee lost Alterraun Verner in the offseason. You’ve probably never heard of Alterraun Verner, but that’s because he’s a good cornerback.


Tennessee is a team that has a lot of needs and would be very wise to try and shop this pick to a team with multiple picks in the first and second round.


Tossing that idea aside though, Gilbert fills an immediate need for the Titans. Gilbert is not small at 6’0” but possesses very top-end speed and could also return kicks for the Titans.


12. New York Giants select CJ Mosley (ILB/Alabama)
The Giants are in a similar position to the Titans. Lots of little cracks that need to be filled with limited caulk.


2013 was a mess for the Giants, who could not protect Eli Manning, who himself could not stop throwing interceptions. They lost Hakeem Nicks, so Mike Evans could be of great interest here, but this is a team that won Super Bowls because of defense and I think they go that route here.


Mosley fills one of the needs for the Giants, that of a true ILB, tackling machine. This is and has been a position of need for the Giants for a long time.


13. St. Louis Rams select Mike Evans (WR/Texas A&M)
Remember back at the second pick when I said, “Evans would be a great addition to this offense?”


Look, I didn’t have it work out this way on purpose (because really, why would I have any interest in the Rams’ success other than picking them to go to the Super Bowl next season?). But if the real life chips fall this way for the Rams, they’ll be the clear winners on Day 1. Getting a potential franchise left tackle in Robinson and the type of big, strong, physical receiver that Evans is would be a huge boon to an offense that is a step and a half behind its defense. Pairing Evans with Kenny Britt and putting Tavon Austin in the slot will give Sam Bradford the weapons he hasn’t had since his days at Oklahoma and could vault the Rams past San Francisco in the NFC West race.


14. Chicago Bears select Calvin Pryor (S/Louisville)
It’s a guarantee that at least one Louisville Cardinal will be drafted in the first round, and I’m willing to be that there will actually be two.


In a division built on passing the football, Chicago desperately needs an intimidator in the secondary and that is Calvin Pryor, who is riding a solid performance at the Combine in Indianapolis up draft boards.


Unlike Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix, Pryor doesn’t really have the ability to cover receivers. But unlike Clinton-Dix, Pryor does have the ability and the want-to to break receivers in pieces. There’s a young Ed Reed quality to Pryor that should be too much for the Bears to pass up on.


15. Pittsburgh Steelers select Kyle Fuller (CB/Virginia Tech)
This is the first pick in the draft where I’ve had a great deal of trouble deciding which way I think a team will go.


If Darqueze Dennard is available, he’s the smart pick. If Mike Evans falls here, he’s probably the second smartest pick. But with neither available and all of the elite OTs gone, Pittsburgh is left floating in the ether that is the middle of this draft.


Wide Receiver makes sense, but unless they reached for Kelvin Benjamin, Pittsburgh would be drafting a guy similar in size and style to Antonio Brown (Odell Beckham Jr, Brandin Cooks, Marqise Lee). And I don’t think that makes Pittsburgh better.


Fuller fills a need for them. I think he’s a slight reach here, but not as much as Benjamin would be (though I like Benjamin as a pro prospect). Fuller is a physical corner, more in the style of Dennard than Gilbert.


16. Dallas Cowboys select Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (S/Alabama)
Clinton-Dix would be a dream for the Cowboys, as they’ve lacked the kind of presence that Clinton-Dix will bring to the safety position for some time now.


Dallas is a team with a number of problems on the defensive side of the ball, and if Clinton-Dix is gone, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them take DT Aaron Donald if he’s still on the board in real life.


17. Baltimore Ravens select Zack Martin (OT/Notre Dame)
We are firmly in the boring territory of this mock draft, though I think there could be some real excitement on draft night in this section of the draft, as QB hungry teams look to move up for Derek Carr, Tom Savage, Zach Mettenberger, Jimmy Garoppolo, etc. Or Bridgewater/Manziel if they’re still around. And don’t forget that Eric Ebron is still out there at tight end and could be a huge difference maker in a team’s offense.


Martin, as a potential RT, is the logical pick for Baltimore, as they have many questions on the offensive line, outside of Eugene Monroe at LT.


18. New York Jets select Eric Ebron (TE/North Carolina)
The Jets need playmakers. The list of available WRs (see Pittsburgh) are all potential playmakers. But Ebron is a difference-making playmaker.


Ebron is not being drafted here because of his ability to block. He’s not that TE. He’s in the Jimmy Graham/Rob Gronkowski mold. He’s big. He’s fast. He’s got great hands. Given the choice between the 5’9”-6’0” WRs and a Jimmy Graham-type TE, well, why would the Jets pass here?


19. Miami Dolphins select Morgan Moses (OT/Virginia)
The Dolphins need a RT and Moses is one of those. Of the available OTs, Moses makes the most sense because of his ability to play on the right side. I’m sorry that I’m boring you right now with my horrible, redundant analysis. .


20. Arizona Cardinals select Derek Carr (QB/Fresno State)
I’m not terribly thrilled about this selection, but this is another team with needs similar to all of the teams above them (secondary help/OGs,). Arizona also has a glaring need at QB, as Carson Palmer is 34 and not getting younger.

Carr is not my favorite QB in this draft. He’s far from it. I find him to be robotic in the pocket. I also have to think that in a league prone to groupthink, maybe teams won’t be so excited to draft David Carr’s brother. But I’ve seen him go in some mock drafts before Manziel, Bortles, and Bridgewater. So what do I know? Nothing.


21. Green Bay Packers select Aaron Donald (DT/Pittsburgh)
Contrary to what you’d think, the Packers are full of holes (there’s a really great cheese metaphor in there).


The Packers could go WR or DL here, as both positions are not terribly deep. BJ Raji is already there at DT, but BJ Raji is also not an every-down DT. Donald is too valuable to pass up here, even if he’s not a schematically perfect fit for Green Bay. You find a way to make it work when you’re as desperate as they are for impact guys on the defensive line.


22. Philadelphia Eagles select Odell Beckham Jr. (WR/LSU)
I don’t want to call Beckham Jr. the poor man’s Desean Jackson, but if he was a tick faster, he’d be Desean Jackson. Beckham ran a 4.43 at the combine and returned kicks and punts at LSU. Paired with Jeremy Maclin and Riley Cooper, he gives Nick Foles and the Eagles a very desirable offense, even without the real Desean Jackson.


23. Kansas City Chiefs select Cody Latimer (WR/Indiana)
Much like Green Bay, this is a team with a good 2013 record who enters the draft process with a lot of holes. Kansas City’s biggest hole is probably their lack of a dynamism on offense. Latimer gives them a 6’2” receiver with speed to pair with Dwayne Bowe.


And, to boot, scouts think he’s a good fit for a West Coast system, which happens to be the exact thing that the Chiefs do on offense, when they’re actually doing something on offense, because the West Coast system is outdated and needs to be junked at this point.


24. Cincinnati Bengals select Bradley Roby (CB/Ohio State)
The run on WRs takes a brief hiatus because if there’s one thing Cincinnati doesn’t need, it’s wideouts.


Roby comes with some criminal baggage, but also comes with a lot of talent. Roby isn’t going to be the guy going man-to-man with AJ Green in practice, because that’s not who he is. He’s a solid complementary corner, better suited to covering faster, smaller receivers. In a division with Torrey Smith, Antonio Brown, and, well, let’s just pass on the Cleveland Browns for now because Josh Gordon is a terrible matchup for Roby, Roby is an asset. And with some aging depth already at the position, the Bengals can develop Roby in 2014.


25. San Diego Chargers select Marqise Lee (WR/USC)
Keenan Allen was a revelation for the Chargers last season, but he was also the only really productive receiver in their offense. Adding Lee gives the Chargers two guys who are matchup problems for most defenses with their ability to make plays after the catch.


San Diego is a team that would love to add a cornerback in this slot, but we’ve essentially run out of those with only Jason Verrett from TCU on the board worth a look in this round. Lee is a nice value pick at this slot, as would be Brandin Cooks from Oregon State.


26. Cleveland Browns select Brandin Cooks (WR/Oregon State)
Someone is going to need to help Josh Gordon at the wideout position and Cooks is a great compliment to Gordon’s size and strength, with his speed and hands. Cooks possesses world-class speed, running a 4.33 at the Combine and frequently turned routine passes from Sean Mannion into stat-building passes for Sean Mannion in college.


Paired with Josh Gordon and Johnny Manziel, the Browns would develop the kind of dynamic offense that, combined with their really good defense, could be a serious playoff contender sooner rather than later.


Or, you know, they could go and screw the whole thing up by drafting Sammy Watkins and hoping that one of this draft’s elite QBs falls to them, ultimately ending up with Tom Savage.


27. New Orleans Saints select Anthony Barr (OLB/UCLA)
There was a time, oh so many months ago, when Barr was considered a top-five pick in this draft, before anyone had ever heard of Khalil Mack.


Barr is a terrific blitzing linebacker with top-end speed for his position. His fall is more due to a lack of need above at the linebacker position than anything else. I think Barr is a top-ten talent guy and a huge steal for the Saints at 27.


28. Carolina Panthers select Cyrus Kouandjio (OT/Alabama)
The biggest question for Kouandjio is his durability right now. He’s big and, at times, very physical. There’s question as to whether he can stay at left tackle, but as a developmental project with huge upside, he’s a good value for Carolina.


Wide receiver is of course, another area of need for Carolina, but that position is fairly deep in this draft and I’d expect them to draft a Davante Adams or Jordan Matthews in the second round, possibly even moving up to do so.


29. New England Patriots select Ra’Shede Hageman (DT/Minnesota)
The word with Hageman that I’ve seen in every scouting report I’ve read about him is “raw.” The other words are “tremendous upside.” Hageman will not be a plug-and-play tackle on Day 1 of the season. He’s going to take some time, but could develop into the kind of disruptive force in both run and pass defense that you’d expect out of a top 5 pick. Or he could flame out and continue in a growing line of New England draft failures. It’s probably one or the other.


30. San Francisco 49ers select Stephon Tuitt (DE/Notre Dame)
Tuitt is the kind of versatile defensive lineman that a team with San Francisco’s depth could really use and given the questions about a certain edge rushing linebacker, could be the pass rushing addition that they need, albeit at a different position than Aldon Smith.


Tuitt is very big for his position but plays quick and physically. He’s considered more of a second round player, but he looks to be a great fit for the 49ers.


31. Denver Broncos select Ryan Shazier (OLB/Ohio State)
In case you had forgotten, Denver signed every free agent during this offseason, hoping to make up the point differential from February’s Super Bowl massacre. Shazier gives the Broncos their edge rushing linebacker of the future for when the newly signed DeMarcus Ware’s body gives in.


32. Seattle Seahawks select Kelvin Benjamin (WR/Florida State)
The Seahawks don’t really need a lot right now, but after losing Golden Tate in free agency and with questions about Percy Harvin’s durability, a receiver with Benjamin’s size and wingspan is a huge get here. Speed at the WR position is not necessarily a problem for the ‘Hawks, and that’s good because Benjamin doesn’t have any. What he does have is a 6’5” frame more similar to a TE, with the athleticism to go up and get whatever is thrown in his direction. And he showed growth each season at Florida State. Benjamin could develop into a top-end WR for the Seahawks with some development and patience.

Hey, it’s the end of the first round. If you just read all 5,000 of those words, thank you. If you didn’t, I don’t blame you in the least bit. One more feature that I always enjoy doing is my late round (4th round or later, generally) sleeper guys at positions of interest. So we’ll end with that. Enjoy the draft. If you have any comments or haterade to throw my way, find me on Twitter @darrenrovell.


QB: Aaron Murray (Georgia): Murray doesn’t possess ideal size and is coming off of a torn ACL, but he’s a four year starter with solid instincts and leadership ability. I don’t envision him being a star, certainly, but I do think he’d be an excellent backup for a long time, similar in role to someone like Matt Hasselbeck.


RB: Lache Seastrunk (Baylor): Speed, speed, speed, and more speed. A really interesting prospect and a great change of pace back for a team with a big physical primary back.


WR: Kevin Norwood (Alabama): Great work ethic and a solid possession receiver. He’s not going to break many tackles in the NFL, but he runs solid routes and catches the ball. There has to be room for guys like that in this league.


DE: Michael Sam (Missouri): I like productive defensive players, even if they’re undersized and/or gay. Neither of those things bother me in the least. Sam was as productive as it got in the SEC and has the motor to succeed. He reminds me a lot of Elvis Dumervil coming out of Louisville in 2006. Elvis was a very productive pass rusher in college, but was picked in the 4th round because of questions about his size and where he could fit in the NFL. Sam is the same weight and three inches taller than Elvis, who is a 3-time Pro Bowler and the NFL’s leader in sacks in 2009.


CB: Pierre Desir (Lindenwood University): Everyone’s pick at this position, Desir played at an MIAA school, currently transitioning to NCAA Division II. That said, he showed well during the draft process and possesses elite ball skills and size for the position. He might end up going much higher than the fourth round if just one team really did their homework and thinks his game can transition. Because the measurables aren’t the question. Just the talent level faced in college.


S: Jonathan Dowling (Western Kentucky): An absolutely head-case of a player, who was dismissed from Florida in 2010. As a safety, he can cover like a corner due to great ball skills. If I’m a team like New England or Seattle drafting in the seventh round, I happily take a flier on Dowling, who I expect no other team will even approach in this draft not because of his measurable talent on the field, but because he’s going to need a lot of babysitting.

2014 American League Preview (And World Series Prediction)

Did you miss the 2014 NL Preview? Well, I’m not here to point you in the right direction. Your loss.


AL EAST
1. New York Yankees
Last Season: The New York Yankees, the team of Babe Ruth, Mickey Mantle, Whitey Ford, and Shane Spencer finished in FOURTH PLACE (!!!) in the AL East. It was a disastrous season, capped off by their biggest rival, the Boston Red Sox, winning the World Series. But if we have some perspective, the Yankees did finish 3 games above .500 and did play in the best division in baseball.


The Offseason: Nothing really. Except for signing Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran, Brian Roberts, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Japanese sensation Masahiro Tanaka. Other than that, not much.


Potential Breakout Player: The history of Japanese pitchers going directly to New York City is not one rife with great success. Hideki Irabu and Kei Igawa set the tone and it’s a rather dull, whining tone. Not pleasant to listen to. I don’t think Masahiro Tanaka will be like that. I expect something much closer to Yu Darvish than Kei Igawa. Tanaka seemed to adjust well during the Spring and has a pitching repertoire more close to that of a number two starter (he’ll start the season as the Yankees number 4). It’ll also probably be helpful for him to have Hiroki Kuroda and resident weirdo Ichiro Suzuki in town to take some of the pressure of the Japanese media off of him. He’s a name we all know, but I expect him to be a contender for Rookie of the Year, which he shouldn’t be eligible for, but I digress.


Additional Comment: You can make a very good argument that the Yankees would be better off with light-hitting, swift-fielding Brendan Ryan at shortstop for the bulk of the season, rather than Derek Jeter, who at this point is both light-hitting and light-fielding. Obviously, in Jeter’s last season, that’s not going to happen. The Yankees are not going to be dominant up the middle, certainly. But there’s some depth there. Kelly Johnson, Jeter, Ryan, and Eduardo Nunez are the weakest part of this team. That’s not too bad, really. If you take what the Yankees did this offseason piece-by-piece, it’s all sort of confusing and weird. It almost reeked of desperation. But when you look at the whole, you’ve got something really impressive. An outfield built on speed (assuming Carlos Beltran is the DH), and two left-handed hitters (I know Beltran is a switch hitter, but he’s far superior from the left side of the plate) taking advantage of a short porch. Losing Robinson Cano seemed like a disaster at the time, but this looks like a team that was put together with a plan to win this year. And I think they will.


At Seasons End…: All will be right with the world and the Yankees will have won the AL East and Derek Jeter will be celebrated as one of the world’s great leaders, etc.


2. Tampa Bay Rays
Last Season: The Rays won the AL play-in game, before falling to the Red Sox in the Wild Card round.


The Offseason: They brought back James Loney and David DeJesus, brought in Ryan Hanigan, and brought back (after a stay in Oakland) closer Grant Balfour. Nothing they did was very sexy, but it was all very Rays-y. That is to say, it will probably work out.


Potential Breakout Player: Last year, it was Wil Myers. This year, I expect it to be Chris Archer. Archer had a very solid rookie season last year. He was 9-7 with a 118 ERA+, and a 1.12 WHIP, all great numbers for an at-the-time 24 year old rookie. And I’m surprised he didn’t get more publicity. I expect him to only get better, especially in the strikeout department.


Additional Comment: I am, of course, partial to the Washington Nationals’ rotation. And I acknowledge that any rotation with Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, and Hyun-Jin Ryu is very good no matter who is filling out the other two slots. The same can be said for the team with Justin “Upton” Verlander, Anibal Sanchez, (I’m jealous. Deal with it.) and Max Scherzer. But Tampa Bay belongs in that conversation as well. Tampa is a team that could legitimately trade David Price and not necessarily skip too many beats. Currently, Jeremy Hellickson, coming off of a terrible season, is the odd man out. Hellickson, even coming off of the season he is, would be in about 15 other teams’ starting rotations. The Rays arms are young and dynamic. And the offense isn’t bad either, with Myers, Evan Longoria, and Ben Zobrist.


At Seasons End…: The Rays will be back in the play-in game and certainly in the hunt for a World Series. Just like they’ve always been (at least it seems that way now).


3. Toronto Blue Jays
Last Season: The Blue Jays were a dominant team from start to finish. I am, of course, talking about the sportswriter prognosticator season. They were, in fact, terrible, in the regular season. Injury plagued and underperforming, the Blue Jays were 2013’s biggest disappointment…


The Offseason: …so they did nothing!


Potential Breakout Player: Maybe I’m just really high on his great Spring Training and the fact that he’s got a wealth of talent, but after two full seasons in the Majors, I think Brett Lawrie is primed for a breakout this season. It’s hard for any player playing in Toronto to catch on nationally, and Lawrie isn’t exactly a sweet, humble guy with a cute media narrative, but I think he’s a name you’ll be hearing more of this season. And for good reasons, finally.


Additional Comment: As difficult as it will be for me, I’m not going to devote this entire section to Colby Rasmus, who I really, really like, even though he’s this generation’s great underachiever in many people’s eyes. The Blue Jays in third place is part me still feeling the after-effects of last Spring’s contact high I caught and part me looking at a roster with Melky Cabrera and Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion and Adam Lind and Jose Reyes and thinking, “that team is going to hit.” Can they pitch? It all falls on RA Dickey to me. The rest of the rotation is just a giant injury concern. I get that. But this offense, if healthy, has the potential to be historically good. It’s a big “if” but I’m willing to jump out on a limb because roughly 100 people in the world will read this post.


At Seasons End…: The Blue Jays will just miss the playoffs, finishing close to .500 due largely to their lack of starting pitching depth.


4. Baltimore Orioles
Last Season: The Orioles proved the doubters (me) wrong by finishing 3 games above .500, tied with the Yankees, but mourning an injury to their star player, Manny Machado.


The Offseason: They signed Grant Balfour to be their closer, which is interesting because if you’re paying attention, you’ll remember that the Rays did too. And, look, cloning Grant Balfour would be great because you’d get to hear double the f-words between pitches. And who doesn’t love f-words? At least the one that ends in some variation of “uck.” The other one, the homophobic one that slimey trolls use on the internet is a terrible word that should never be used. Anywho, the Orioles signed Balfour, got cold feet, gave him a physical that he magically failed, and watched as a division rival signed him. In addition to that debacle, the Orioles signed Ubaldo Jimenez and Nelson Cruz. They both passed their physicals.


Potential Breakout Player: This seems like a “Not Applicable” situation, as I’ve spent the last two seasons watching Steve Lombardozzi and, well….yeah.


Additional Comment: I don’t hate their rotation, but they paid the Ubaldo Jimenez from the second half of last season and not the Ubaldo Jimenez who actually exists in this world. Ubaldo Jimenez is a guy who averages four walks per 9 innings for his career. His lowest single-season WHIP is a 1.15, which appears to be an outlier given his career WHIP of 1.34. There is really no evidence to indicate that Ubaldo Jimenez should be given a four year contract where he is paid $13 million per season. But this is the reality of baseball free agency in 2014.


5. Boston Red Sox
Last Season: They won the World Series.


The Offseason: They lost their leadoff hitter to their biggest rival and their starting catcher to the Marlins. They replaced them with Grady Sizemore and AJ Pierzynski. Oh, and they added Edward Mujica to their bullpen.


Potential Breakout Player: There’s a sarcastic jerk in me (who’d have guessed?) that wants to pick the team of doctors who will keep Grady Sizemore in one piece (named this morning as the Sox’ Opening Day starter in centerfield). Instead I’ll go with Allen Webster, who came over from the Dodgers in the Great Salary Dump of 2012 and was an abject disaster in limited Major League work last season. He continued to be an abject disaster in Spring Training, but my options for a breakout player with this team are fairly limited to him and Jackie Bradley Jr. who just lost a competition to be the team’s starting centerfielder to a 31 year old who hasn’t played 100 games in a season since 2009 and hasn’t played at all since 2011. So there’s that. (Xander Bogaerts doesn’t count as he’s already broken out in my book.)


Additional Comment: To look at the 2014 Boston Red Sox and think, “That’s a team that could repeat as champions” you either have to be 1.) Drunk or 2.) A Bostonian (and no, I’m not taking the easy joke bait that I just dropped into the blog pond). Really, there’s nothing about this team that says, “champion” or “playoff contender” or “good.” The middle of the lineup, with Pedroia, Ortiz, and Napoli is really only as good as the table-setter(s). That’s generally the case for any 2-3-4 hitter. Who is that table-setter here? Sizemore? Shane Victorino? Maybe it’s Will Middlebrooks and his career .294 on-base percentage? I don’t think there’s nearly enough balance in this lineup to make up for what is a really shaky rotation. Clay Buchholz doesn’t appear able to pitch more than 5 innings at a time. Felix Doubront is a “written in ink” starter despite being, well, Felix Doubront. Jake Peavy didn’t get younger this offseason. Jon Lester is like Ubaldo Jimenez from the left-side (no, really, take a look at his numbers). And if you’re going to look at John Lackey’s 2013 and think that’s what you’re going to get from him, take a look at those career numbers and tell me he’s not due for a precipitous fall back to Yawkey Way.


At Seasons End…: The city and fanbase that loves narratives more than anyone else won’t really have one. They’ll have a sub-.500 baseball team, they’ll want John Farrell fired and replaced by Bobby Valentine (okay, maybe not Bobby Valentine), their aging roster will be a year older, and all of the goodwill and duck boats and silly Jonny Gomes antics will be gone. I’m not saying they’ll be closer to the 2012 Red Sox. This is still a 76-win team in a really tough division, but they’ll be a far cry from last year’s narrative-driven run to the World Series of Narratives.



AL CENTRAL
1. Detroit Tigers
Last Season: By the hair of their chins, the Tigers won the AL Central, allowing them to avoid playing in the MLB Pay Attention To Us Play-In Game. They won their Wild Card series over Oakland, before ultimately succumbing to the Red Sox in the ALCS.


The Offseason: The Tigers had a rather interesting offseason. First, they traded Prince Fielder and his enormous contract to the Texas Rangers for their malcontent, whiny, overpaid second baseman Ian Kinsler. Then, a few weeks later, they traded their number 3 starter, Doug Fister, for a utility infielder (Steve Lombardozzi), lefty reliever Ian Krol, and middle-of-the-road prospect Robbie Ray. Then, earlier this week, they traded Lombardozzi for the aged Alex Gonzalez, who they intend to play at shortstop even though he played first base last year for the Milwaukee Brewers. Oh, and I almost forgot they signed Joe Nathan to close out games. It was a busy offseason in Detroit, unlike elsewhere in the AL Central.


Potential Breakout Player: Nick Castellanos finally gets the opportunity to play full-time in the Majors, now that Miguel Cabrera has moved across the diamond. Castellanos has long been the Tigers prized prospect, one they prized so much they attempted to move him to a corner outfield spot just to get him some playing time. Lost in the Fielder trade and the money saved was the benefit of giving a player of Castellanos’ skill and potential his shot.


Additional Comment: The Tigers are far from a perfect team. There are question marks in left field and shortstop, certainly. And we can all sit around and wait for Rick Porcello to develop into the stud pitcher we expected, or we could go out and get some delicious burgers. Verlander, Scherzer, and Anibal Sanchez are a lethal 1-2-3, especially considering the other 4 rotations in this division, all of whom would take any of those three and instantly make them their ace. But Detroit is not a perfect team. That said, this division, much like the NL Central and NL West and NL East should be a runaway. The gap between the Tigers and the Royals is large, at least in terms of elite talent.


At Seasons End…: The Tigers will have coasted into the playoffs, again. And if there’s a fourth starter they can rely on (Porcello or Drew Smyly) they might get back to the World Series. Without that though, I think they come up just short.


2. Kansas City Royals
Last Season: 2013 had to be a joy for Royals fans. The team didn’t make the playoffs but they finished with a better record than the New York Yankees. That had to be incredibly satisfying.


The Offseason: Omar Infante and Jason Vargas. That’s the list and that’s as much time as we’re going to spend on that.


Potential Breakout Player: There probably aren’t enough words to describe how excited I am to watch Yordano Ventura pitch. Ventura’s spring, against very good talent, was absurdly good (1.77 ERA, sub-1.00 WHIP, 0 HR allowed (in the Cactus League!). I could go on, but I’m focusing too much on Spring Training. Ventura possesses the sort of fastball that makes Joel Zumaya blush. Ventura also possesses a potentially solid curveball and a changeup. He won a rotation spot fairly early on and for obvious reason. He’s not a conventional starting pitcher by any stretch (he’s under 6’0”). That said, he’s my pick for American League Rookie of the Year.


Additional Comment: I remain very high on the Royals. The minor league system is brimming with talent, starting with 18 year old shortstop Raul Mondesi Jr. and running through a list that includes pitcher Kyle Zimmer, shortstop Christian Colon, and centerfielder Bubba Starling (who I’m not going to give up on). And the Major League team is very good offensively. Alex Gordon is everything I want in a baseball player. Eric Hosmer is coming off a season that saw him start to realize his great potential. Billy Butler is just a consistent hitter (in the nicest way possible). Mike Moustakas struggled last season, but still adds a great deal of pop, and when healthy, Salvador Perez is one of the best hidden secrets in baseball behind the plate. What keeps the Royals at a distance from the Tigers is rotational depth. Put it this way, as excited as I am for Yordano Ventura, he’s a risky gamble to be your number two option.


At Seasons End…: The Royals will more-or-less be in the same place as they were last year at season’s end. But the barometer is pointing straight up for this team. The addition of Kyle Zimmer and a quality free agent starter might have this team in the hunt for a pennant in 2014.


3. Cleveland Indians
Last Season: Terry Francona did as Terry Francona does; he took over a struggling team and got them to the play(in game)offs. And not even a good team.


The Offseason: The only thing of real interest is that the Indians decided, in order to give Yan Gomes more playing time, to move Carlos Santana from behind the plate to third base, which is a transition that always works well whenever any team tries it (which is never).


Potential Breakout Player: Danny Salazar performed well in limited time last season, keeping his ERA below 3.20, and producing a quality K/BB ratio for a 23 year old. He was so good, the Indians started him in their play-in game.


Additional Comment: I don’t have much to add really. I think the Indians are a subpar baseball team that overperformed last season. An injury (who’dda guessed?) to Michael Bourn won’t help the team’s ability to produce runs. The lineup is okay. Jason Kipnis is a nice piece, if not an entirely inconsistent one and Carlos Santana is a very good hitter who will be badly miscast as a third baseman. The pitching isn’t great. Justin Masterson appears to have turned some corner and while he’s not a true staff ace, he’s a good pitcher. But outside of him and Salazar, this team lacks the depth to be a true contender. Even with Tito.


At Seasons End…: Indians fans will be that much closer to watching super-prospect Francisco Lindor play shortstop every single day. And that will be a joy. This season won’t be. I’d say they’ll be a few games under .500 but never really in any hunt.


4. Chicago White Sox
Last Season: As bad as the Cubs were, the White Sox were worse. And unlike the Cubs, they had one of the worst minor league systems in baseball.


The Offseason: They didn’t get any closer to winning in 2014, but they took a couple of nice strides towards improving their future, thanks to the generosity of Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers. The White Sox sent out closer Addison Reed and ended up with their future centerfielder in Adam Eaton and, at the very worst, a good stopgap solution at third base in Matt Davidson.


Potential Breakout Player: Like with a lot of what the Diamondbacks do, I didn’t understand trading Adam Eaton. He’s a really nice addition to a team that doesn’t seem terribly keen on guys who get on-base. Eaton does and plays a very good defensive centerfield. He’ll get hardly any notice on the South Side this year because the White Sox will be so bad, but he’s one for the future.
Additional Comment: Outside of Chris Sale, who is very good, even though his arm will one day snap into pieces, the White Sox rotation is an absolute mess and the bullpen isn’t really much better. Nor is their offense. Let’s save some time, shall we?


At Seasons End…: Let’s just say, it won’t be pretty in Chicago.


5. Minnesota Twins
Last Season: They won 66 games and that seemed like a pleasant surprise.


The Offseason: They brought in Ricky Nolasco to be their ace and Phil Hughes to be, um, something.


Potential Breakout Player: I don’t know that he’s going to get much time outside of September, but Byron Buxton is the next super-duper star of baseball. He’s a true five-tooler in the mold of Mike Trout and he’s waiting in the wings. The Twins system is fairly loaded (though an injury to second base prospect Miguel Sano will keep him out for the season) so it may just be a matter of time before they’re back contending, but even if they’re 26 games out when they call up Buxton, he should be a must-watch from the get-go.


Additional Comment: I continue to not understand the logic behind giving out long-term deals to middling pitchers. The Twins locked up Nolasco through 2018, because when there’s a pitcher with a career 94 ERA+ who has only pitched in the National League before, you just have to pay him $12 million annually. Likewise for Phil Hughes who is signed through 2016 and will earn $8 million per season. If someone in the Twins front office thinks that signing Nolasco and Hughes will fill the seats at Target Field and/or make the Twins a contender, I’ve got some beautiful oceanfront property in Serbia to sell them.


At Seasons End…: The Twins will challenge the Astros for the title of “Worst Team in the American League” and Ron Gardenhire will continue loving the Japanese women’s soccer team.



AL West
1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, California Angels
Last Season: The Angels expected the addition of Josh Hamilton would help guide them back to the playoffs and potentially to the World Series. Instead, the Angels secured themselves a mid-first round draft pick in 2014.


The Offseason: A few years ago, the Angels traded highly regarded prospect Tyler Skaggs and others for Dan Haren. This offseason, they got Skaggs back by trading a guy who couldn’t get on base at a better than 30% clip. Baseball! The Angels also acquired David Freese from the Cardinals in exchange for Peter Bourjos, allowing Mike Trout to play his natural position of centerfield, where he will win all of the Gold Gloves.


Potential Breakout Player: 25 year old rookie Kole Calhoun put together a really solid campaign in 50+ games last season, with an .808 OPS, a 128 OPS+, and absolutely no glove-work. Most people didn’t notice this, myself included, because the Angels were, outside of Trout, unwatchable. This year, people will notice.


Additional Comment: This team is a lot more than just Mike Trout, I guess, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t celebrate Trout at every possible opportunity. Trout is 22 years old and at this point in his career, his name belongs with players like Mantle and Griffey Jr. There’s no argument. We all get nostalgic for the past. It’s the Saturday Night Live way of thinking. Every previous iteration was better than the one we have now. It’s considered sacrilege to compare any player today to any great of the past. That’s all nonsense to me. The SNL part. The baseball part. All of it. Whether you’re an Angels fan, Dodgers fan, Nationals fan, Red Sox fan, Yankees fan, or Tigers fan, you should cherish how lucky you are to watch a player like Trout, as a baseball fan. He doesn’t need to be the posterboy for the Sabermetric movement. He doesn’t need to be the posterboy for any movement. He’s a once-in-a-generation player. Blink and you’ll miss him.


Additional Comment 2: This additional comment won’t include Mike Trout. The Angels find themselves here because they are the most balanced team in this division. Texas has an incredible offense. Oakland has a good starting rotation and very good bullpen. LA’s lineup isn’t as good as Texas’ and their pitching isn’t as good as Oakland’s. But if Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols are healthy this team will certainly compete for a division title.


At Seasons End…: LA will just barely hold off the Rangers in the race to avoid the play-in game.


2. Texas Rangers
Last Season: The Rangers pulled off the very difficult task of winning 91 games while still missing the playoffs after a late season collapse that saw them go 5-14 over a 19 game span in September.


The Offseason: It was eventful to say the least. The Rangers added, in my opinion, the prized offensive free agent in Shin-Soo Choo, while also trading malcontent Ian Kinsler for Prince Fielder, thus freeing up a spot in their lineup for super-prospect Jurickson Profar.


Potential Breakout Player: It was Profar until a torn shoulder muscle this spring put him on the shelf until late June. Let’s pretend former relief pitcher Tanner Scheppers is going to be a really good starting pitcher and go with him then.


Additional Comment: An injury to Yu Darvish leaves the Rangers with few options in the starting pitching category, hence Scheppers’ opportunity. I generally like my teams built on balance, but the 2014 Texas Rangers are an exception to that rule. I think they’ll be slow out of the gate, certainly. But getting Profar back in late June, a healthy Darvish much sooner, and then any sort of contributions from Matt Harrison and Colby Lewis could be a real boon to the Rangers. This prediction might look really silly in mid-May, but I think the Rangers will pull things together and get guys healthy at the right time.


At Seasons End…: Texas will be in the World Series and we’ll forget that Tanner Scheppers started on Opening Day.


3. Oakland Athletics
Last Season: Oakland defied skeptics and won the AL West before succumbing to the Detroit Tigers in the playoffs again.


The Offseason: The Oakland offseason recap should start at the end, as they lost Jarrod Parker for the season to Tommy John surgery and AJ Griffin to a muscle strain that will leave him out for at least a month of the season. As for additions, the A’s added Scott Kazmir to the rotation, Sam Fuld to the bench, and Luke Gregerson and Jim Johnson to what was already a very good bullpen.


Potential Breakout Player: You could argue that he broke out last year, but I’m going with Opening Day starter Sonny Gray. The diminutive righty was truly excellent in his first go-round of the Majors and I don’t expect that to change this year. Gray could be a dark horse Cy Young candidate. And if you were going to give me 40:1 odds on him, I might consider making a $10 bet.


Additional Comment: Oakland is in a tough spot. Losing Jarrod Parker hurts because he’s replaced by 30 year old journeyman Jesse Chavez and/or failed Colorado Rockies prospect Drew Pomeranz. Losing Griffin for a month hurts for the same reason. The A’s need their pitchers to be healthy to contend because their offense just simply isn’t good enough to win them games. People expecting Josh Reddick’s 2013 to be like his 2012 were slapped rudely across the face when they saw what most of the rest of us expected come to fruition. Meanwhile, Yoenis Cespedes had a difficult time staying healthy/drawing a walk/not striking out. Without those two performing, a lot falls on the shoulders of guys like Josh Donaldson, who may have been a revelation last year or may have been the 2013 version of 2012 Josh Reddick. I lean more towards the latter. That’s why they’re here. Sorry, @wipps.


At Seasons End…: Oakland will miss the play-in game by the slimmest of margins and Billy Beane will retreat to his beautiful penthouse condominium (I’m just guessing) and come up with a plan that will somehow, against the odds and logic, keep this team in contention in 2015.


4. Seattle Mariners
Last Season: They finished 20 games ahead of the last place team in their division.


The Offseason: The Mariners made a few fringe, but high-upside moves, in adding Corey Hart and Logan Morrison. They also signed Fernando Rodney to be their closer. Other than that, not much.


Potential Breakout Player: The Mariners will call on a young, homegrown second baseman named Robinson Cano to carry the load offensively for them. I’ve had a difficult time looking up his numbers last season in AAA Tacoma, but it’s the PCL, so you have to assume they were very good. Cano should be a top of the order table-setter for the bevy of great power hitters on the roster such as…..and also….


Additional Comment: You could, maybe, get me to buy the argument that the Cano signing was a smart one for the Mariners. It would take a lot of double IPAs, but you could maybe do it. But if I’m not under the influence of alcohol, I think it’s an absurd contract for a team without an identity. No team in baseball has to travel as much every season as Seattle. Their closest division opponent is 800 miles away. Take a look at this infograph about baseball travel, if you’d like. Seattle is not a desirable place for free agent baseball players. It’s a desirable place for late-20’s hipster doofuses like myself who enjoy wearing flannel shirts, eating locally-sourced food, and drinking really bitter beers. The travel schedule, combined with the fact that no one east of Carson City (besides me and other Vin Scully aficionados) watches regular season west coast games, means that you play in a sort of black hole. Robinson Cano is now part of that black hole. The Mariners have two good young pitching prospects in Taijuan Walker (who will unfortunately start the season on the DL) and James Paxton. Other than that, their system is weak. Mike Zunino and Brad Miller are everyday players now, but neither has the sort of ceiling that you can pair with Cano to build something. Robinson Cano is a very good baseball player. But of all the ridiculous 8-10 year contracts handed out since the dawn of the age of TV money (and that includes Miguel Cabrera’s) Cano’s might be the most illogical. With the Angels, you could see that they were trying to get to the World Series with Pujols and overpaid to try to get a few of his peak years. The Tigers don’t want to lose the face of their franchise. The Tigers thought Prince Fielder and Cabrera would each club 50 homers and be best friends and win a World Series. With those teams, there was something sensible about their deals. With Cano, it’s just another example of how some teams really don’t have a plan for the present, never mind the future.


At Seasons End…: More of the same.


5. Houston Astros
Last Season: The Astros weren’t quite the worst team in the history of baseball, but they weren’t terribly far off either.


The Offseason: They signed Scott Feldman to a laughable contract (3 years/$30 million) that can only be a result of some mandate from the Major League offices to spend money. They also made a really smart trade to add Dexter Fowler.


Potential Breakout Player: On a (projected) 58 win team, there are no breakout players.


Additional Comment: I love what the Astros are doing. To me, in baseball you have two goals: contend for a World Series or build to do that in the future. Tampa Bay did that in the mid-2000s and it’s paid dividends. Milwaukee did that for a while before they lost Prince Fielder and gave up hope. The Chicago Cubs and Miami Marlins are doing it now. To be a team like the current Milwaukee Brewers or the Philadelphia Phillies playing for absolutely nothing makes no sense at all to me. No one in baseball is rebuilding like the Astros. To the most casual of baseball fans (those who just look at the box scores and the standings), the Astros are a laughing-stock. But to anyone in the know, who follows this stuff more closely, the Astros are a model. They’re the Kate Upton of baseball models. Years of failure have paid off in the minor league system. No one comes close to Houston in terms of depth and upper echelon talent. From Carlos Correa, who will be a star shortstop soon, to Mark Appel and George Springer who will make their debuts this season, to pitchers Lance McCullers Jr. and Mike Foltynewicz, the Astros have talent galore and will again have the top pick in this June’s draft (expected to be North Carolina State southpaw Carlos Rodon). You might not want to watch them now, but the building blocks are in place in southeastern Texas and the Astros will soon be a force to be reckoned with. Just after they lose 100 games again.


At Seasons End…:  See above.



AL Playoffs
Play-In Game: Texas over Tampa Bay


Wild Card Round: Texas over Detroit, New York over Los Angeles


ALCS: Texas over New York


AL Awards
MVP: Mike Trout (finally)
Cy Young: Justin Verlander
Rookie of the Year: Yordano Ventura


World Series

St. Louis over Texas (4-3)

2014 National League Preview

Last season, I did something very different with my MLB preview. In years past, I had just written one post for the season with predictions and some pithy comments.


Last year, I decided to write a team preview for all 30 clubs. This amounted to 30 posts in 30 days and about 17,000 words of thought, snark, and player names which still contribute to the total word count thankfully. It wasn’t the fun exercise I expected it to be. Especially not when I got to teams like the Brewers. Sorry, Brewers fan.


In 2014, given the amount of free time you’d perceive me to have, you would think that I’d be undertaking that same exercise. Instead, I decided to bury it. There’s a certain overzealousness that comes with thinking that anyone would want to read a Chicago Cubs preview written by some guy who doesn’t actually work as a sports journalist. And the pageviews indicated as much last year. Except for the Cardinals post which was four times more popular than any other post, probably because TBFIB.  


So, in an effort to save your time, I present to you my NL Preview. Expect the AL preview some time on Friday. I would love feedback, disagreements, thoughts, corrections, and insults. So direct them my way on the social media (@midatlanticbias) or in the comments section.


(teams listed in predicted order of finish)


NL EAST
1. Washington Nationals
Last Year: Remember last season when I boldly went where every sportswriter was going and predicted that the Nats would run away with the World Series? That they’d cancel the season around mid-August because it just wasn’t close enough to finish it? That everyone would stay healthy and a big parade would be held down South Capitol Street?


Yeah, that didn’t happen. The Nats won 86 games, but finished four games out of the second play-in game spot. They were hampered by injuries and bullpen regression and poor management and a host of other problems. That said, they won 86 games.


The Offseason: The Nationals offseason was highlighted by one of the most inexplicable trades in recent memory, where the Detroit Tigers traded starting pitcher Doug Fister (30 years old, cheap, career ERA+ of 116) for a left handed relief pitcher, a utility infielder, and a fringy pitching prospect.


Elsewhere, the Nats added Nate McLouth (expensively) as a fourth outfielder and Jose Lobaton to be their backup catcher. None of those moves were particularly splashy, but if Wilson Ramos continues to be incapable of staying healthy, and Bryce Harper’s body continues to act like that of a 47 year old, Mike Rizzo might reclaim his “genius” sticker.


Potential Breakout Player: I’ll do one of these for each team. Consider it a player that most baseball fans don’t know about. If you’re a religious fan like me, you’ve heard of most of these people. As Conor Oberst once said, “I’m not singing for you.” For the Nats, I think it’s Tanner Roark. Roark is currently in a battle with Taylor Jordan for the fifth spot in the starting rotation. The loser likely ends up in Syracuse. Both are quality young arms, but I like Roark more, at least for this season, because of his ability to keep guys off base. Jordan gives up a lot of hits. Roark does not. Neither are dominant strikeout pitchers, but Roark has shown the most consistent ability to miss bats. Either is a better option than any number of teams have in their 3 spot.


Additional Comment: I’m glad to see Danny Espinosa back in the Majors. I was as frustrated as anyone with him last year and was happy to see him demoted, but this team needs his glove-work. He’s a plus-defender up the middle at either position and in the event of an infield injury (anywhere really, as Ryan Zimmerman is likely to see time at first base, which would move Anthony Rendon to third, etc.) will be a nice addition because of what he gives defensively. Any added pop (and Danny has that) offensively should be considered a plus at this point.


At Seasons End…: The Nats will have won the NL East with 93 wins, but will fail to get to the World Series, due in large part to the talent pools elsewhere in this league.


2. Miami Marlins
Last Year: Was an abject disaster. They lost 100 games and were the worst road team in baseball. Though they did feature the NL Rookie of the Year in Jose Fernandez and gave some much needed Major League development time to future start Christian Yelich.


The Offseason: Well, they’re the Marlins, so they didn’t go out and make any huge free agent splashes. They did add Jarrod Saltalamacchia (no, I didn’t have to look up the spelling of his last name) and Rafael Furcal, two veterans who, if healthy, are big upgrades at their position over last year’s starters, Jeff “I Still Love You Mike Scioscia” Mathis and Donovan Solano.


Potential Breakout Player: Henderson Alvarez ended last season by throwing a no-hitter that nobody noticed, because it was on the last day of the Major League season. His Spring (and I put very little stock into that for what it’s worth) was productive and he stayed healthy, something the 23 year old has had difficulty doing thus far in his early career. I like Alvarez because, like with Tanner Roark, he is showing an ability to miss bats. He’s not a strikeout pitcher, per se, but his K totals looked nicer this spring against a high level of talent (Baseball-Reference has a wonderful tool that grades the level of hitter a pitcher has faced during Spring Training).


Additional Comment: I am in no way saying that the 2014 Marlins are going to be like the 2003 Marlins. I don’t think they’re a playoff team. They’re a team playing in a fairly terrible division. But their rotation is very young and has a world of potential to be very, very good, led by Jose Fernandez, who I expect to compete with Clayton Kershaw and Jordan Zimmermann for the NL Cy Young. He’s backed up by Alvarez, Nathan Eovaldi, and Jacob Turner, none of whom are older than 24 and all of whom have had some modicum of success in the Majors already. Add to that youth of the outfield (Yelcih, Giancarlo Stanton, and Jake Marisnick) and you’ve got the start of something very good in Miami.


At Seasons End….: They’ll be a mile behind the Nationals and much closer to the Braves, but they’ll be on the right path, assuming their owner doesn’t trade Stanton and Fernandez to the Yankees for Cash Considerations and a corned beef sandwich.


3. Atlanta Braves
Last Year: They were very good. They won 96 games, dominated at home in front of their 15,000 fans/night, and saw Freddie Freeman develop into one of the best first basemen in baseball.


The Offseason: They signed every young player they have to a long-term extension and then all of their pitchers died.


Potential Breakout Player: There’s really no player in the system or with the club now that isn’t a relative household name now. But I’d like to focus briefly on Andrelton Simmons. Simmons’ 2013 was arguably one of the greatest defensive seasons ever for any player. Simmons saved roughly 40 runs defensively. At the plate, he’s not vintage Alex Rodriguez. But he hit 17 home runs. If you’re going to get on-base 30% of the time, hit 17 home runs, and play historically great defense, you deserve a lot of attention. Here’s a 25 minute long video of his defensive highlights from last season. Enjoy.


Additional Comment: Their Opening Day rotation, right now, includes Julio Teheran, Ervin Santana, Alex Wood, and David Hale. That’s four people. The Braves expect Mike Minor back by April’s end, after losing Brandon Beachy and Kris Medlen in Spring Training. The Braves sitting below the Marlins is a direct result of that. And if you want to argue that Atlanta’s lineup is good enough to outweigh the rotational shortcomings, tell me exactly what Justin Upton, BJ Upton, and Jason Heyward did last season that leaves you confident that they can carry a team with a bottom 10 rotation. I’ll be here all day.


At Seasons End….: Fredi Gonzalez will be out (especially if rumors of BJ Upton batting second and Chris Johnson batting fourth are true), the Braves will be a sub-.500 team, and they’ll be shopping Justin Upton looking to bolster a less than stellar minor league system.


4. New York Mets
Last Year: Wasn’t very good, though the Mets may have surprised some people with 74 wins. Matt Harvey was a revelation and glimpses of the future had to brighten the hopes of Mets fans everywhere.


The Offseason: Matt Harvey had Tommy John surgery and was replaced in the 2014 rotation by Bartolo Colon. Meanwhile, Daisuke Matsuzaka may have won a rotational spot over a very good prospect in Jenrry Mejia and they gave a lot of money to Curtis Granderson. In other words, LOLMets.


Potential Breakout Player: I think it’s Mejia, who showed glimpses of a great future in a brief stint last year. Look, I’m familiar with the work of Daisuke Matsuzaka. New Yorkers are familiar with it too. They’re not going to be patient. Mejia is part of the future core of this rotation (with Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Rafael Montero, and Noah Syndergaard) and is due for his opportunity.


Additional Comment: While I admire the idea of having lots of money to spend, I do not understand the signing of Curtis Granderson. Teams like the Mets who have a number of very good, club-controlled prospects (the pitchers above as well as Travis d’Arnaud and Dominic Smith) spending long-term dollars on past-their-prime players, when they have no hope of contending for a World Series, makes zero financial sense. In three years, when the Mets are going to be paying Granderson $16 million, they’ll also need to start thinking about locking up their, at that point (hopefully), developed prospects. You don’t give up on the present, but you don’t throw large free agent deals at players who aren’t going to push you over the hump.


At Seasons End…: The Mets will be about four losses worse than last season, but no worse long-term than they are today. Which is all you can ask for if you’re a Mets fan at this point.


5. Philadelphia Phillies
Last Year: The Phillies finished below the Mets, despite having a payroll of roughly $190 million. That’s not a misprint. Ruben Amaro Jr, their GM, still has a job.


The Offseason: Roy Halladay retired, they threw some money at AJ Burnett for some reason, and Jimmy Rollins fought with new manager Ryne Sandberg.


Potential Breakout Player: Maybe Jesse Biddle gets a cup of coffee and fills in nicely to a spot in the rotation. That’s the best case scenario.


Additional Comment: This is probably the most embarrassing team in baseball. Laugh all you want at the Astros, Cubs, and Marlins, but they didn’t pay a lot of money to be terrible last year. The Phillies paid nearly $200 million. They enter 2014 with the third highest payroll in baseball and no immediate help in a system missing immediate, high-impact prospects. The lineup you see today is the best lineup they’ve got. And it’s an awful, aging lineup, managed by a former player who is already fighting with the team’s presumed clubhouse leader, Jimmy Rollins. Enjoy the show in South Philly.


At Seasons End….: Phillies fans will rejoice because the season will be over and the Eagles will be playing football again.




NL CENTRAL
1. St. Louis Cardinals
Last Year: They did what they always do: received contributions from young pitchers, hit the ball, and got to the World Series, where they were “outclassed” by the Boston Red Sox.


The Offseason: Two moves that went mostly under the radar, but could pay big dividends: replacing Jon Jay’s terrible defense in center with Peter Bourjos and replacing Pete Kozma’s terrible everything at shortstop with Jhonny Peralta. And all they lost was David Freese.


Potential Breakout Player: Peter Bourjos. His glove should win him one of those fancy awards at the end of the season and I think his bat will give the Cardinals enough to make him a 3.5+ WAR player. He’ll steal bases and score a lot of runs for a guy batting down in a team’s order. And again, to get him, all they had to do was trade a guy who was blocking one of the organization’s upper echelon prospects.


Additional Comment: Moving Allen Craig to the outfield full time, to make space for Matt Adams at first might prove to be a drain on Bourjos’ endurance, as he’ll be covering both flanks (with Matt Holliday in left field and Craig in right). But those defensive concerns aren’t enough for me. The one area of mild concern is their rotation. Last fall, when the world was anointing Michael Wacha the best young pitcher in baseball (no, seriously, Curt Schilling said that: “ His mix and makeup are as good as any young pitcher I’ve seen in the game.”) I was perplexed. First, Clayton Kershaw is only 3 ½ years older than Wacha and more importantly, Wacha is a two-pitch pitcher. Over the course of a full season, that’s going to come back to haunt him. I still feel that way. That said, even if Wacha struggles, I don’t see a single challenger in this division. The Cardinals are the runaway NL Central favorite.


At Seasons End…The St. Louis Cardinals will find themselves back in the World Series.


2. Pittsburgh Pirates
Last Season: Magic! The Pirates finally made the playoffs and even though they were eliminated by St. Louis, ended the season poised to be a playoff contender for years to come, which is a weird sentence to write.


The Offseason: Well, they’re the Pirates, so they didn’t sign Jacoby Ellsbury or Masahiro Tanaka. But they did add Edinson Volquez. So…


Potential Breakout Player: Gregory Polanco won’t start the year in Pittsburgh, but he’ll likely finish it there and could be a key to any success Pittsburgh has in 2014. Polanco is a do-everything, top-tier prospect with an advanced approach at the age of 22. He’s probably ready for the Majors now, but Pittsburgh won’t rush him unless Jose Tabata is a total disaster. So expect to see Polanco by Memorial Day.


Additional Comment: This is a team that would have benefited greatly from knowing that someone like Doug Fister was available because Pittsburgh has the assets to have outbid the Nationals and could really use a groundball guy like Fister. The rotation is thin, being filled out at the back with Jeff Locke, Charlie Morton, and Edinson Volquez. Jameson Taillon is waiting for his call-up, but Taillon doesn’t look to be the elite pitching prospect he was when the Pirates drafted him right after Bryce Harper and right before Manny Machado in the 2010 draft.


At Seasons End: They’ll get to play in the Major League Baseball Tries To Siphon Off Just One Extra Day of Coverage One-Game Playoff game again, but I don’t expect this team to make a real run at the World Series until a solid starter or two is brought in to accompany Gerrit Cole.


3. Milwaukee Brewers
Last Season: The Brewers’ best player, Ryan Braun, took a suspension plea deal for his involvement in the Biogenesis scandal and the Brewers offense took a hit in his absence. They won just 74 games.


The Offseason: With a gaping hole in their rotation, the Brewers did what so few teams seem capable of doing: they added a good free agent starting pitcher. Matt Garza didn’t necessarily come cheap, but he’ll bolster a rotation with some upside to it. The Brewers also added Mark Reynolds. I just wrote that to make this section look bigger.


Potential Breakout Player: No team in baseball has a worse system than the Brewers. There is truly no “unknown” talent anywhere near their Major League club. The Brewers didn’t land a single prospect on Keith Law’s Top 100 prospects list and he wrote “no one was close.” He’s not lying.


Additional Comment: Look for the Brewers to trade former No. 2 overall draft pick Rickie Weeks at some point to a team in need of second base help. Weeks is now below a guy named Scooter on the team’s depth chart and the Brewers would be clearly desperate to bring back anyone with any real upside, despite the fact that Weeks may have seen his best days pass him by already.


At Seasons End…: The Brewers will have won a few more games than they did last year, but unlike a team like the Marlins, they won’t be set up for near future success, unless they can convince a lot of young free agents to move to Milwaukee.


4. Cincinnati Reds
Last Season: The Reds made the MLBTTSOJOEDOC One-Game Playoff game, losing to the Pirates 1-0. Then they fired Dusty Baker and hired first-time manager Brian Price, their former pitching coach.


The Offseason: Convinced that they didn’t need to do everything possible to keep Shin-Soo Choo and his .423 OBP at the top of their lineup, the Reds sat on their hands for a while before giving Homer Bailey a deal that in the year 2019 will pay him $23 million. I cannot believe I just typed that sentence and you shouldn’t believe you just read it.


Potential Breakout Player: Billy Hamilton is either going to become a household name or he’s going to be playing in Louisville by June. I don’t see any other scenario. He’s the fastest player in baseball, but speed is only good if you get on base. He’s not a good hitter (think Dee Gordon) and seems to have lost the patient approach that got him on-base at the lower levels of the minor leagues where he stole approximately 674 million bases.


Additional Comment: I don’t want to belabor the point, but the Homer Bailey contract is a head-scratcher to me and as a Nats fan, cannot mean that Jordan Zimmermann is going to come cheap. Homer Bailey is a perfectly fine pitcher with a couple of no-hitters to his name, but that’s really what he is. He’s a guy that can go out and be dominant a few times a year, but is mostly just pretty good. He’s like the rich man’s Edwin Jackson.


At Seasons End…: The Reds will be happy that the Cubs play in the same division. The loss of Choo is huge for this team. Outside of Joey Votto, this is not a team that gets on-base consistently or even well. Everyone is going to regress because of Choo’s absence. Why the Reds didn’t overpay for him I will never understand.


5. Chicago Cubs
Last Season: was a tire fire.


The Offseason: They brought in Justin Ruggiano and Jose Veras.


Potential Breakout Player: Javier Baez. Assuming that Starlin Castro continues to be himself, the Cubs would be wise to put their prized prospect into the everyday lineup and see what happens. Baez has incredible bat speed and should hit right away.


Additional Comment: Theo Epstein has built a great system in a short amount of time. Chicago should be a good team in the next five years. I’d imagine there will be another two seasons similar to 2013 before that happens, which just means more chances to draft elite players. There’s a smart way to rebuild and there’s the way a lot of other teams do it. Chicago is doing it the smart way.


At Seasons End…: The Cubs will still have not won a World Series since 1908.




NL WEST
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
Last Season: was a tire fire until Yasiel Puig showed up and single-handedly made baseball exciting again. The Dodgers stumbled out of the gate like a Philadelphian at the annual Mummers parade. They struggled to be competitive in May. Then, on June 3, at 23-32, with Stephen Fife scheduled to take the mound against the Padres, the Dodgers called up The Wild Horse. They’d go on to win 92 games and take the Cardinals to 6 games in the NLCS.


The Offseason: They smartly extended the undisputed best pitcher in baseball, Clayton Kershaw, through the end of time. They also signed Dan Haren and Paul Maholm. And Yasiel Puig drove his car too fast.


Potential Breakout Player: Not applicable, unless you want to count Matt Kemp.


Additional Comment: The Dodgers outfield is very crowded. Matt Kemp, at one point arguably the best player in baseball, hasn’t played this spring after foot surgery. He hasn’t been really healthy since his “should have been” MVP season in 2011. When he returns, which could be in mid-April, the Dodgers will have a choice between Kemp, Puig, Carl Crawford, and Andre Ethier. One of them is going to be benched. That means one of them is not going to be happy. And I get the sense that player is going to be Puig. Speeding at the rates that he was is obviously not something to joke about, but the media crucifiction of Puig is embarrassing and I think it’s permeated into the Dodgers locker room from what I read about Manager Don Mattingly. Puig is a talent that needs patience and I fear that his incredible 2013 will end up hurting him in the long run. I don’t even think it’s outside of the realm of possibilities that the Dodgers could try to move Puig if Kemp is healthy because he’s the most desirable asset on their roster (significantly cheaper than any of the other three outfielders who will all earn at least $15.5 million this season). You can’t have a player of Puig’s skill sitting on your bench and you can’t have a player earning $20 million sitting on your bench. So something is going to have to give in Elysian Park. It’s the most fascinating story of this season to me.


At Seasons End…: The Dodgers will be thankful that they play in a weak division (perhaps baseball’s weakest). I expect them to make the playoffs because there’s just too much talent for them not to. But even with all of that talent, the Cardinals are a more complete team and won’t have the droning sound of sportswriter columnists peppering the clubhouse with questions about who should be the odd man out in the outfield. That said, the Dodgers will be a must-watch every night. Especially when they’re at home with Vin Scully calling games. Because Vin Scully is a treasure that we should all celebrate at every opportunity.


2-5: Who Knows?
Last Season: As they tend to do, the teams in the NL West shuffled deck chairs, with the Diamondbacks finishing at .500, followed closely behind by the Padres, Giants, and Rockies.


The Offseason: The biggest acquisition of the offseason for the four teams was probably Colorado adding Brett Anderson or San Diego adding Josh Johnson, this is of course assuming that they’re both perfectly healthy, which they’ve literally never been. And so that means that Mark Trumbo and his sub-.300 OBP in Arizona or Tim Hudson and his being old take the trophy for “biggest offseason move” among the four also-rans.


Potential Breakout Player: This should be easier, given a pool of four teams to work with, but, well, it’s not. I’m going with the long-shot of Archie Bradley in Arizona. Bradley, the Diamondbacks top prospect, might not pitch in the rotation until an injury forces GM Kevin Towers’ hand, but Bradley is the real deal. And he’d benefit greatly from not having to pitch in pitcher-unfriendly Reno.


Additional Comment: The Dodgers used to be part of this deck chair routine before they became baseball’s biggest spenders. This routine is wearing paper thin, frankly. None of these teams ever seems to make the true, conscious effort to rebuild like the Cubs and Astros presently are. They add a piece here, trade a prospect there, and remain thoroughly mediocre throughout. Even the Giants, who have won two World Series trophies since 2010, can best be described as thoroughly mediocre. Each year they won the World Series, you’d be hard pressed to argue that they were the best team in baseball. In 2014, one of these teams is going to finish with 85 wins and secure a spot in the play-in game. The following year? They’ll probably finish in last place. Welcome to the NL West.


At Seasons End….: I like the Rockies to surprise and finish in second, followed by the Padres, Diamondbacks, and Giants. Offensively, if we assume a healthy Troy Tulowitzki (yes, I know what happens when you assume), the Rockies are unquestionably the best team of the four. The starting pitching goes about three guys deep, but really, the same can be said about the other teams involved too. Forgive me if I don’t sound too excited about 80% of the NL West.


NL Playoffs


Play-In Game: Pittsburgh over Colorado


Wild Card Round: St. Louis over Washington, Los Angeles over Pittsburgh


NLCS: St. Louis over Los Angeles


NL Awards


MVP: Yadier Molina
Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw (really going out on a limb there)

Rookie of the Year: Gregory Polanco

A Brief Ode to Wichita State

The game of the year in college basketball, past or future, was played yesterday in the Gateway city (named that, I believe, because that’s where Gateway computers were manufactured). On Selection Sunday I was highly bothered by the draw undefeated Wichita State had received. It was almost as if the NCAA was trying to hurt a mid-major program for the benefit of its traditional blue-bloods. I know, really strange that the noble NCAA would do such a thing. While Virginia drew an average Memphis team from the American Conference, Florida drew the 5th best team in the ACC and Arizona drew Gonzaga, Wichita State was put into a position where their path to the Elite 8 was very likely to include Kentucky and the reigning champion Louisville Cardinals, themselves a victim of terrible under-seeding.

And so Wichita State, playing in a city 100 miles closer to Lexington, KY than southern Kansas, was forced to play “The Best Freshman Class In The History Of Basketball Ever.” The game was an instant classic. It was the kind of game that was better served for the Final Four or a National Championship game. Boxing metaphors are totally overdone. But this felt like a prizefight should feel. Each team took blows to the head and countered with body shots that left their opponent stunned. Cleanthony Early played the kind of game that should vault him into the discussion for the NBA lottery. He exhibited a great mid-range jump shot and deadly outside shooting. Meanwhile, super freshman Andrew Harrison had his best game of the season, sealing the game down the stretch at the free throw line, while Julius Randle did his best Zach Randolph impression.

The game was a gem. There were a handful of moments that left Jim Nantz and Greg Anthony, calling the game for CBS, with nothing to say but “OH!”

This is likely the end of the road, for now, for Wichita State. Early is a senior, as is Andrew Wiggins’ brother. Fred Van Vleet and Ron Baker, the Shockers great guard combo, are both sophomores, but without the athleticism of Early, this may not be a team that can be a national title contender, which they absolutely were this year. It’s just a shame that the NCAA didn’t want that to happen.