2012 Baseball Preview…Now With 15% More Outlandish Predictions!!!

March 30, 2012 / Jason / Leave a comment

There are, as they say, many ways to skin a cat. I’ve never been an advocate of cat skinning. I am, however, an advocate for baseball.

There are a number of different ways I can tell you who I think will (but ultimately will not) because when am I ever right about these things? win the World Series, who I think will (but ultimately will not) win the AL Rookie of the Year., ad who I think will (but ultimately will not) be the most exciting team to watch in 2012.

First, some musings:

-I can’t really remember an offseason with as much major movement as this one. 9 of last year’s Major League All-Stars changed uniforms this offseason. And Albert Pujols wasn’t even an all-star.

-Everything seems to be going smoothly in Boston, right?

-The Miami Marlins are going to be a joy of unintentional comedy this year. If anyone out there believes that Hanley Ramirez is happy at third base, that Jose Reyes is going to stay healthy, that Heath Bell is not going to do what most closers who sign big contracts do, that Ozzie Guillen won’t get into public spats with the Marlins front office, that Josh Johnson will stay healthy for an entire year, that people will go their new ballpark with the silly home run prop, that Logan Morrison won’t continue to be a thorn in the front office’s side, etc. then I have a fancy fountain tin my possession thatwill totally make you live forever.

-Sliced bread is the best thing since Jose Canseco joined Twitter.

-People seem to be really high on the Angels. Remind me, who’s playing in their outfield? Oh, some combination of Torii Hunter, Bobby Abreu, Peter Bourjos, and a $22 million lawn gnome named Vernon Wells? Well, at least they have Alberto Callaspo, JMark Trumbo and Erick Aybar as regulars too.

-Why is Bobby Valentine so tan?

-Am I the only person who likes Mike Stanton more now that his name is Giancarlo Stanton?

Phew, now that that’s off my chest, how about some division predictions. ets’ start with the National League.

NL EAST
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Atlanta Braves
3. Washington Nationals
4. Miami Marlins
5. New York Mets

Outlook: I’ve wavered on just how high I should be on the Washington Nationals. At times I’ve thought they should be the favorite in the NL. Other times, I’ve thought that they could still have a subpar year. The rotation concerns me less than the offense, but there’s some concern there. The Nationals added Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson in the offseason. They’re huge upgrades over Livan Hernandez and whatever replacement player they had in last year’s awful rotation. But Gio and Jackson bring two big question marks with them. No one walks more hitters than Gio ,and Edwin is fairly fond of baserunners. himself Gio has thrown 200+ innings each of the last two seasons, but he’s also walked over 90 hitters, finishing each year with a WHIP of 1.31. Jackson has also thrown 200 + innings over the past two season (well, 199.2 last year, but let’s round up) and while his walks are well south of Gio’s, his hits allowed are not. WHIPs of 1.40 and 1.43 aren’t going to get it done. Especially when you consider that Livan’s WHIPs over the previous two season aw re1.32 and 1.39.

I expect the move to the NL to favor Gonzalez, regardless of park. He’s a strikeout pitcher facing markedly weaker lineups. Yes he won’t be playing in the cavernous Oakland Coliseum (or whatever it’s being called today), but he also won’t be facing the Texas Rangers, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers, and Toronto Blue Jays very often.

Edwin Jackson just is what he is.

There could be (and will be) more on the Nats throughout the season. I think they’ll be the most exciting team to watch because of Strasburg, the imminent arrival of Bryce Harper, and the most excited fan base they’ve seen since the move to DC. Add to that the Jayson Werth Redemption Tour, Michael Morse playing the role of crazy guy from college, perhaps the best bullpen in baseball, and an amusing old manager with a flair for dry humor and you’ve got a compelling team. That said, there are 29 other teams and I would like to talk about a few.

As for the rest of the division, I think Philadelphia has enough pitching to hang on to the division, if not barely. The Braves are no slouch. Many people looked at the Braves after last season’s debacle and forgot they existed. This is still a good team. Their rotation issues (the health of Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson) will be an achilles heel for the Braves. They need Brandon Beachy, of all people, to be the ace that no one thinks he’s capable of being. And whereas Philly’s pitching can make up for its meager hitting, the Braves hitting is not good enough to make up for its pitching.

Per my musings from earlier, I doubt that the Marlins can be a successful experiment. They’ll be an entertaining experiment, but they won’t be “good.” The pieces are there, but I do believe in chemistry in baseball, at least to a certain extent. I doubt Miami’s ability to develop it. And I also doubt in their rotation. The health of Josh Johnson is key. If he misses any time, the Marlins will miss the playoffs.

The Mets are a baseball team. They play in Flushing, Queens. Queens is a borough in New York. New York pizza. Pizza pizza. Little Caesars. Crazy bread. Crazy Train. Ozzy Osbourne. Tom Osbourne. Tom Seaver. ‘86 Mets. Better days.

NL CENTRAL
1. Pittsburgh Pirates
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. St. Louis Cardinals
4. Cincinnati Reds
5. Chicago Cubs
6. Houston Astros

Outlook: So, nothing peculiar here, right?

Look, I realize that I’m probably going to be a little bit wrong here. But no one likes chalk. If I had the Cardinals in the top slot, you’d likely glaze right over this spot. But a shocking and fearless division title for the Pirates? I just stopped you dead in your tracks, didn’t I?

The Pirates added AJ Burnett (currently recovering from smashing his own face in with his bunting skills) and Erik Bedard (currently recovering from whatever injury he has this week) to their rotation. They will join Kevin Correia, Jeff Karstens, and (likely) James McDonald. Brad Lincoln and Charlie Morton would provide rotation depth. And a team with AJ Burnett and Erik Bedard would likely need that.

Outside of the two additions to the rotation and Clint Barmes at SS, this is the same team who captured America’s hearts for the first two months last season before destructing under the weight of their own success and reverting back to Pirates Baseball.

But this year will be different. Andrew McCutchen will be an MVP candidate. Pedro Alvarez will begin to develop into the hitter the Pirates expected him to be, before they rushed him to the big leagues. Their patchwork bullpen of no-names, outside of Joel Hanrahan, will close the door. And PNC Park will be full.

And if all of that rosy stuff doesn’t happen, I like the Brewers’ strong rotation of Yovani Gallardo, Zack Greinke, and Shaun Marcum to keep a team with a giant offensive hole, in a lot of games. Milwaukee won’t be the offensive juggernaut they were last year (5th in runs scored/1st in HR in the National League). You can’t really be a juggernaut when you replace Prince Fielder with, well, a replacement player. And that’s what Mat Gamel is. Add to that injury concerns with Rickie Weeks and Corey Hart, who is recovering from knee surgery and you’re unlikely to see a lot of 11-7 games at Miller Park this year. But the Brewers can pitch. And in a division like this one, that’ll be enough.

Logic would have the St. Louis Cardinals in the catbird seat. But blind hatred of the team, even with Tony LaRussa gone, limits my ability to predict good things for them. I’m not in love with their rotation or bullpen. I don’t really believe there’s enough depth or consistency in the ‘pen and one would have to be a little concerned with Adam Wainwright coming back from Tommy John surgery, while Chris Carpenter was out with a mysterious neck injury. Case in point…Kyle Lohse is their opening day starter.

At the other end of the “Jason Botelho” dislike range sit the Cincinnati Reds. I like the Reds. That is to say, I don’t openly root against the Reds and they have players who I like. Joey Votto. Brandon Phillips. Jay Bruce. Drew Stubbs (for no apparent reason). Heck, in the offseason, they added another “Jason guy” in Mat Latos. The fourth place finish has less to do with the players and more to do with Dusty Baker, the ruiner of pitchers. Dusty’s goal, stated or unstated, is to overwork every pitcher on his staff. Perhaps that explains why the Reds acquired Utilityman and former pitching star Wilson Valdez in the offseason. There may be so few guys left at the end of the season. And in a relatively short rotation (I’ll give each reader $100 if Aroldis Chapman pitches 150 innings this season…how’s that starting pitcher experiment going?), I don’t like a Dusty Baker managed team al that much.

Instead of talking about the Cubs and Astros, here’s a list of things I’d rather watch than a Cubs/Astros game:

-The minor league affiliates of the Cubs and Astros.
-The Real Housewives of Biloxi
-Watch What Happens Live
-The Dish
-The Soup
-The Complete Rebecca Black videography.
-An Ashley Judd movie
-That scene from NYPD Blue when you see Andy Sipowitz’s butt
-Re-runs of The Weakest Link
-Fox and Friends
-Cats vomiting

Meanness aside, there’s no real reason to watch either of these teams. The Astros’ agenda appears to be losing with really bad players in the hopes that they can develop some top draft picks into something worth keeping. The Cubs agenda involves bringing in Theo Epstein to save the day. Meanwhile, their best player is a 22 year old shortstop who can’t get on base at even a mediocre clip.

NL WEST
1. Arizona Diamondbacks
2. San Francisco Giants
3. San Diego Padres
4. Los Angeles Dodgers
5. Colorado Rockies

Outlook: I’m starting in reverse order here. The Rockies have the game’s best shortstop and a left fielder with hilarious home/road splits. Then there’s 23 other guys. The rotation is anchored by Jeremy Guthrie. And he’s the clear cut ace. The closer? Rafael Betancourt. And the manager? Baseball’s worst in-game savant (that’d be Jim Tracy). This will be a long year for the Rockies, especially for Troy Tulowitzki, who deserves better than this.

The Dodgers’ infield is sort of like a practical joke. James Loney, Mark Ellis, Dee Gordon, and Juan Uribe. That’s their infield. No typos there. I’m not sure that, combined, they’ll hit 20 home runs this season. Last year, Matt Kemp was a HR away from a 40/40 season, with 100 runs scored and 100 runs driven in, while getting on base 40% of the time (and yet he didn’t win the MVP….astounding). Clayton Kershaw won the NL Cy Young. And yet this team was terrible. And thanks to Frank McCourt’s personal life being in shambles, this year’s model looks a lot like last year’s. That’s not a good thing.

The Padres in third is a surprise to some, but I see a team that makes some sort of sense here. Pitching in Petco does not mean that you need to have a staff of future Hall-of-Famers. And the Fathers do not. Tim Stauffer, Cory Luebke, Clayton Richard, Edinson Volquez, and Dustin Mosley aren’t going to win any beauty contests. But they don’t have to. For San Diego, it’s about offense and they improved that in the offseason, adding Yonder Alonso and Carlos Quentin. Add to that the continued development of Cameron Maybin and you’ve got a decent nucleus. Add to that a solid bullpen and you’ve got a pretty average baseball team. And in the NL West, average will get you third place.

This division is always unpredictable. In fact, the only predictable thing about the West is its unpredictability. No one expected the Diamondbacks to contend last year (except for me…unfortunately, I tweeted my MLB preview last year and I’ll be darned if I’m going to back through a year’s worth of tweets to prove a fact), but they won the division. So maybe I’m being foolish for predicting a repeat winner. But top to bottom, I like Arizona more than San Francisco. The Giants have a better rotation, but the difference is shrinking. In fact, let’s rank the pitchers from each staff:

1. Tim Lincecum
2. Matt Cain
3. Ian Kennedy
4. Madison Bumgarner
5. Daniel Hudson
6. Trevor Cahill
7. Josh Collmenter
8. Ryan Vogelsong
And then Barry Zito and Joe Saunders. Or something.

Now, add in Trevor Bauer and Tyler Skaggs and you’ve got something completely different. Despite not having pitched in the Majors, I’d put Bauer ahead of Bumgarner based on potential. Skaggs I would slot, based on his potential, between Bumgarner and Hudson.The Giants are undoubtedly better at the top, but I like Arizona’s middle. Especially with Bauer and Skaggs in the mix.

Offensively, this isn’t a contest. The Giants are still the Giants. Brandon Crawford, Melky Cabrera, and Nate Schierholtz will see regular playing time. And even with Buster Posey back, I have to imagine it’ll take him a little bit of time to get back into a groove.

Playoffs
NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Pirates
NL West: Diamondbacks
NL Wild Card 1: Giants
NL Wild Card 2: Braves

Giants beat Braves in playoff game.

Giants beat Phillies in one series.
Diamondbacks beat Pirates in the other.

NLCS: Giants beat Arizona in 7, behind 3 starts from Tim Lincecum. I don’t think the offense is there, but this is a Giants team that is made for the postseason. I’ve read lots of stories about how the extra wild card favors the Nationals. To me, it favors the teams who are better in a tournament than the regular season. For Washington, Stephen Strasburg will be done pitching by August. For San Francisco, if all goes well, their rotation shrinks to four guys. And when you’re maximizing starts for Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, that’s a good thing. And it can make up for any offensive shortcomings you may have. If you don’t believe me, ask the 2010 Giants.

And now, on to the American League…

AL East
1. New York Yankees
2. Tampa Bay Rays
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Boston Red Sox
5. Baltimore Orioles

Outlook: And it’s not really that close.

The Yankees are much better than the Rays and Jays. The Yankees have pitching depth. They don’t have a single significant hole in the lineup. They might have baseball’s best 7th, 8th, and 9th inning trio. There’s just not a lot to complain about in the Bronx. The key for the Yankees will be A-Rod. If Rodriguez can bounce back to his usual 30+ HR form, he’ll be able to make up for the Yankees only “shortcoming” (weakness at the DH spot). He says he’s healthy. If he is, that could be a bad thing for AL parity.

Tampa Bay will go as far as their pitching will take them. The offense is not good enough to make a (positive) difference for them. And few teams can match the rotation of Shields, Price, Hellickson, Moore, and Niemann. Add to that a bullpen that should be solid and the Rays pitching should keep them around. And once October comes, much like the Giants, they can be dangerous. What will limit them though is any limitation on Matt Moore’s innings count.

I like Toronto more than Boston because of their offense, which is just a step behind the Yankees in this division. Eric Thames is a bit of a hole in left field and Adam Lind’s inconsistency is a concern, but elsewhere, the Jays look to be solid positionally (Yunel Escobar) to dynamic (Jose Bautista). And there’s a world of potential in Brett Lawrie at 3B and Colby Rasmus in CF.

Toronto’s starting rotation will keep them away from contending for the division title. There have to be concerns with the health of 5th starter Dustin McGowan. And in his still relatively short ML Career, Brett Cecil has shown little that would convince you that he was a solid #3 starter. If the Blue Jays can add a true #3 starter, to put behind Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow, they will contend. But #3 starters generally aren’t just hanging around.

Fried Chicken and beer. Fried Chicken and beer. Bobby Valentine. Fried Chicken and beer.

The Red Sox will be closer to the Orioles than they will the Blue Jays. Adrian Gozalez is the surest thing in the lineup. Which is certainly not a bad thing. But who else is a sure thing? You can pencil in Dustin Pedroia, but Pedroia is not a star. His ceiling is not as high as Jacoby Ellsbury’s. But Jacoby is always a tweaked rib away from a 60-day DL stint (yes, I’m calling him soft). Kevin Youkilis appear to be in a steep downturn. And then there’s the rest of the team. Cody Ross, Ryan Sweeney, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Mike Aviles, Nick Punto. I mean, are we trying to start the replacement player all-star team?

And then if you want to talk starting rotation, you’ve got to be concerned about Clay Buchholz’s ability to stay healthy because the guys behind him are Alfredo Aceves and Daniel Bard who is being converted back into a starting pitcher. But don’t worry, Red Sox fans…Daisuke Matsuzaka is on the mend!

It’s not worth making fun of the Baltimore Orioles. Their offense is not terrible. It’s not great. But it’s not the worst in the AL by a long shot. Markakis, Jones, Reynolds, they all have roles. And Matt Wieters might eventually become what he was supposed to. No, the Orioles pitching is the problem. And a huge problem. It’s awful. Jake Arietta, who is a perfectly okay pitcher, will probably be their Opening Day starter. 2012 could be a very long year in Charm City.

Maybe the Red Sox won’t actually be closer to the Orioles than the Blue Jays…

AL Central
1. Detroit Tigers
2. Kansas City Royals
3. Minnesota Twins
4. Cleveland Indians
5. Chicago White Sox

Outlook: I’m losing my desire to write a lot. We’re at 3,000 words right now. You’re probably losing interest. And the AL Central isn’t going to help you get more excited, unfortunately.

The Detroit Tigers are the best team in this division. They’re the best by a huge margin. Kansas City is in second place here by default. Every other team is so fatally flawed that I would be shocked if the Tigers don’t win this division, which is a shame because they’re not as good as the Yankees or two AL West teams (don’t want to give away any surprises…). Fielder and Cabrera are a wonderful offensive pairing, but outside of them, I have no interest in anyone else in the lineup. I feel similarly about the pitching. Verlander is great and Fister is good, but what else do we have besides another year of the unfulfilled hope and promise of Max Scherzer? Not much.

The Royals intrigue me because I like their lineup. Sure there’s a bit of an on-base problem with guys like Alcides Escobar, Jeff Francoeur, and Yuniesky Betancourt, but with Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer, Billy Butler (whatever, I know he doesn’t hit for power, but the guy still gets on base. He hasn’t had a sub-.360 OBP since 2008. He’s good for an OPS in the mid-.800s and he doesn’t strike out that often. Lay off Butler, world.), and Mike Moustakas, who I don’t anticipate will put up numbers similar to Hosmer’s last year, but who will be an upgrade over last year’s Opening Day 3B, and current Red Sox SS, Mike Aviles. And yes, the Royals pitching is still not great. But it’s not terribly far off. If Danny Duffy can give the Royals some consistent innings and Luke Hochevar can begin to approach his long-since vanished potential, the Royals could be a .500 team, which might get them second place in this division.

FATAL FLAWS!!!!!!

Minnesota- No power.
Cleveland- No depth (case in point, Shelley Duncan might be your Opening Day LF)
Chicago- Everything, save for Paul Konerko.

NL West
1. Texas Rangers
2. Los Angeles Angels
3. Seattle Mariners
4. Oakland Athletics

Outlook:Texas still has a better lineup than LA. By a mile. And while their pitching isn’t as solid 1-4 as LA’s, their depth is much, much better. Say Jered Weaver goes down (or Haren, Wilson, or Santana). Who is going to fill that void? Jerome Williams? Garrett Richards? Now look at Texas. If someone goes down, Scott Feldman, who had a sub-1.1. WHIP last year, can spot start. Or maybe you’d prefer Alexi Ogando? LA is one injury in the rotation away from a real problem.

“But Albert Pujols!!!!!!” you yell in an annoying voice. What’s around him? Alberto Callaspo, Mark Trumbo, Erick Aybar, Chris Ianetta, Vernon Wells, Torii Hunter? I mean, really? That’s what we’re all revved up about? A bunch of guys who couldn’t get on base if you gave them a map, a canteen, and a Nepalese sherpa?

GIve me Kinsler, Hamilton, Cruz, Beltre, Andrus, Napoli, and (sigh) Young any day of the week. And while we’re at it, let’s not pretend that this Texas team cannot pitch. They can. And have. And will. I get that the names Matt Harrison and Colby Lewis aren’t exactly turning you on. But they’re effective pitchers. With a lineup like Texas’, they don’t need to be the Phillies.

At the bottom of the division, you have two very intriguing, if also not good, teams. The A’s are insanely terrible on paper. I’ll be surprised if they score 600 runs this season. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen a worse lineup. And yet, I don’t think they’re the worst team in baseball. They can pitch. And with guys like Jarrod Parker and (to a lesser extent) Brad Peacock in the minors, they’ll continue to pitch. Brandon McCarthy’s numbers at the end of the season will surprise you. They’re not going to win 80 games, but we’re not talking about the 2003 Detroit Tigers.

The Mariners can hit a little more and have Felix Hernandez. But really, they’re just like the A’s. I expect Danny Hultzen to be called up by June, like Jarrod Parker in Oakland, thus filling the spot currently employed by a replacement player. And I have faith in the combo of Dustin Ackley and Justin Smoak. Enough faith that I think they’ll win two more games than the A’s.

They’ll both be better than you think, but neither will be teams you’ll want to watch on MLB.TV.

Playoffs:
AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Tigers
AL West: Rangers
AL Wild Card 1: Angels
AL Wild Card 2: Rays

Angels beat Rays in playoff game.

Yankees beat Angels
Rangers beat Tigers

ALCS: Yankees over Rangers in 6, behind the pitching depth they lacked in 2010. Michael Pineda will be a key for the Yankees. If he gives them a year similar to last year’s (in Seattle), I think they’ll have the advantage over Texas. Both lineups can and will rake. The Yankees will pitch just a little better.

WORLD SERIES: Yankees over Giants in 5. The Giants simply don’t have the hitting to contend with the Yankees. And whereas in 2010, that would have been okay for the Giants, I don’t think it will be this year. New York is just too well-rounded.

AWARDS
AL MVP: Albert Pujols
NL MVP: Andrew McCutchen
AL ROY: Matt Moore
NL ROY: Trevor Bauer
AL Cy Young: CC Sabathia
NL Cy Young: Cliff Lee

And finally, I give you a list. This list will lay out the top 5 teams based on my interest in watching them play games via my MLB.TV subscription. Washington Nationals and Baltimore Orioles games are blacked out on MLB.TV in my area, so those two teams are not eligible. Asleep yet? Great.

5. Toronto Blue Jays (Striking similarities to Texas. A little less offense and a little less pitching. Plus Jose Bautista.)
4. Kansas City Royals (They’re a riser. The pitching is a year or two away, but I’ve enjoyed watching their offense this spring. And Eric Hosmer is going to break out in a big way this year.)
3. Texas Rangers (Just an exciting team. Long games, of course, because of the offense. But worth the time.)
2. Arizona Diamondbacks (I really like their rotation and will like it even more when I can watch Trevor Bauer pitch regularly.)
1. San Francisco Giants (If there’s a better announcing duo in baseball than Duane Kuiper and Mike Krukow…well, there isn’t. And with their pitching, Giants games are never a bore.)

Honorable mention goes to the Dodgers. And it has nothing to do with Matt Kemp or Clayton Kershaw, though they’re both quite good. For me, there’s still no more enjoyable baseball experience than turning out the lights on a weeknight and settling in for a few innings with Vin Scully. It doesn’t matter who’s on the field, as long as Vin is in the booth.

Enjoy the season! Go Nats!

I Wrote 1000 Words About Something You Didn’t Know Existed

February 18, 2012 / Jason / Leave a comment

Tomorrow is like a national holiday for me. It’s like Christmas, Thanksgiving, Flag Day, and Mark Rypien’s Birthday all rolled into one glorious, college basketball filled day.

It’s BracketBusters day. The day invented by ESPN that takes the country’s best below the radar mid-major teams and has them play non-conference games against each other in front of a national TV audience. Dick Vitale will be in Murray, Kentucky tomorrow. And you should be too. At least on your TV. Here are the 5 games you really should watch if you care about these things (in order of time)

Valparaiso at Loyola Marymount (tonight actually….9 p.m./ESPNU)

-Valpo find itself in first place in the Horizon League behind first year head coach Bryce Drew. Loyola is far on the outside looking in when it comes to the tournament. But Loyola has proven itself to be a bit of a giant killer this year, knocking off UCLA and St. Louis in non-conference play and, inexplicably, winning in Provo and Moraga, places where no one wins a road game. The problem for Loyola is that they’re actually not that good. They’ve lost home games to Columbia, North Texas, and Morgan State. But they’re playing their best basketball of the season right now. I’m picking LMU in an upset.

Chances That I Watch This Game: 15%

Wichita State at Davidson (tomorrow….12 p.m./ESPN2)

-This very well might be the best game on the schedule for Bracket Busters, which was not the case when the schedule dropped a few weeks ago. Wichita is hot. They’re coming off a blowout win over Creighton and have lost only 1 game since January 1 (a triple overtime road defeat). Davidson, playing under the radar (Steph Curry isn’t walking through that door), leads the Southern Conference and has lost only twice since Christmas. The two teams are very evenly matched statistically, save for the Shockers (that’s Wichita State) field goal shooting (49% to 45%….it sounds small, but that’s a big difference in team field goal shooting). This is a Shockers team playing as well as anyone in America right now. I fully expect them to win a tight one tomorrow.

Chances That I Watch This Game: 35%

Nevada at Iona (tomorrow…4 p.m./ESPN2)

-They’re a combined 43-10 on the season. Nevada has one loss since November 26. They feature a balanced attack and a solid rotation. Iona is 2nd in the country in scoring, 1st in assists, and 6th in field goal shooting. They’ve had a rougher time of their conference schedule than the Wolfpack, with 3 losses. They also have a very hot Loyola (MD) on their heels. Iona’s Scott Machado, averaging 10 assists per game (leading the nation) is the player to watch. He dictates the pace. And it’s a pace that Nevada hasn’t seen in WAC play. I think the time change, and the game speed, give Nevada their second loss since December started.

Chances That I Watch This Game: 50%…but it should be higher. If I were single, it would be 100%. That’s not a complaint. Trust me.

Saint Mary’s at Murray State (tomorrow….6 p.m./ESPN)

-No one thought this game was going to mean more than exposure. But with both teams coming off of recent tough-to-explain losses to Loyola Marymount and Tennessee State, respectively, a loss here is going to do some damage to the at-large bid candidacy of each. Saint Mary’s can afford the loss more than Murray State, because the Gaels play in a conference with two other very good teams (Gonzaga and BYU) while Murray State plays SIU-Edwardsville and Tennessee-Martin. A loss to Saint Mary’s and another regular season loss, coupled with a conference tournament loss and I can make an argument that the team with the 306th (out of 339) most difficult schedule shouldn’t be in the tournament even with a 26-4 record. The matchup to watch here is between Matthew Dellavedova, Saint Mary’s sharp-shooting Australian Point Guard and Isiah Canaan, Murray State’s do everything. sharp shooting guard. If Canaan is off, like he was in the loss to Tennessee State, the Racers have no shot at beating a really good Saint Mary’s team. And even if he does have a great night, Saint Mary’s size will hurt the Racers. I like Saint Mary’s and I don’t think it will be all that close.

Chances That I Watch This Game: 95%

Long Beach State at Creighton (tomorrow….10 p.m./ESPN2)

If Wichita and Davidson isn’t the best game, this one is. Amanda jokingly refers to Long Beach State as the best basketball team ever because one night, I talked at her for five minutes straight about them. The 49ers played a preposterously difficult non-conference schedule with games at Pittsburgh, San Diego State, Louisville, Kansas, North Carolina, and (for good measure) neutral-site games (in Hawaii) against Xavier and Kansas State. And while they only won two of them, it wasn’t for lack of trying. They took Kansas and North Carolina (in the same week) down to the final minutes, losing by 8 and 6 respectively. Since conference play started, they’ve lost to no one. Creighton, the country’s best shooting team, did not play a murderer’s row schedule and their 22-5 record shows that. The Blue Jays play in the much tougher Missouri Valley Conference and have to compete with the aforementioned Shockers of Wichita State. And they come in reeling, having lost 3 of their last 4 games, after starting the year 21-2. The Blue Jays are led by Doug McDermott who looks exactly like you’d expect a basketball player in Omaha to look. But McDermott is for real, averaging 23/8 (pts/rbds) per game. The Blue Jays need a win desperately, regardless of what Wichita State does. What once seemed like a lock is no longer such. For Long Beach State, a loss here isn’t the worst thing in the world, because I fully expect them to run the table and win the Big West. My heart says Long Beach, but my head says Creighton, so I’ll take the Blue Jays in a very close game.

Chances That I Watch This Game: 5%….This would be 100%, but I have a colleague who is having a going-away party tomorrow night, and the 10 p.m. start time is much too late for me to watch the game and then go out. I’m not young. Nor have I ever been.

Sometimes, Coming Up With A Title For These Things Is Hard

January 31, 2012 / Jason / 4 Comments

(This is a non-sports post. But this is also the 10-year anniversary of the worst day in my and my family’s life. If you come here for sports, I completely forgive you for waiting until the next post.)

Ten years ago today, my father suffered a stroke. I was a junior in high school. I left home that morning never thinking that it was the last time I would hear my dad speak, or see him walk correctly. At no point during the day did I think, my father is close to death right now.

After school, I dropped my friend Dave off at his house, as I did every day. I walked into his house to the sound of my grandmother on his answering machine. That was the first sign on January 31, 2002 that something wasn’t right.

The next message was my mother. She repeated the same thing my grandmother said, “Jason, there’s an emergency. You need to get to (the hospital) as soon as you hear this. I remember tossing the CD that was in my hand and, with no indication that I was right, saying to Dave, “It’s my dad.”

I raced to the hospital from Dave’s house. The song on the radio was Rancid’s “Time Bomb.” That song is forever synonymous with that moment. I yelled at every car in my way and drove much too quickly to the hospital.

Standing at the door to the Emergency Room was my grandfather (mother’s). That cinched it that it was my father. I drove my car into a snow bank at the far end of the hospital and ran quickly. My hunch was true.

My mother’s friend Linda Thomas, a nurse, sat me on a vacant stretcher and told me, through tears, about my father’s stroke. I had no idea, then, what a stroke really was. I knew it made people talk and walk funny. I didn’t know why it happened or what it looked like when it did.

My grandfather drove me to Boston, where my father was transported to receive emergency surgery to try to keep him alive. My grandfather, Dean Hess (this being the only time his name will ever appear on the internet in a blog), was and remains either a really great person to be with in times of crisis or the worst. When his close friend and the husband of my grandmother’s best friend died, my grandfather stood in his backyard for a while, marveling at how impressive Bobcats were. Not the animal. The bulldozer vehicle. My grandparents apparently picked an ideal day to have a new septic system installed at their house because it gave my grandfather a distraction.

The drive didn’t involve much talk about my father. We talked about sports and that was it. It prepared me in no way for what awaited me in the ER waiting room at Brigham and Women’s Hospital.

I’ve never really understood why people cry. For one, why did God decide to have water come out of our eyes when bad things happen? And why does seeing other people cry cause one to cry? Because as soon as I saw my mother: tears. And lots of them. And for a very long time.

After hours of waiting, my mother was told that doctors could not remove part of my father’s skull to allow his brain to swell. I don’t remember why. The details are in no way important. She was told that his prognosis was not very good and that if his brain swelled very much at all, he would die.

And so, before we left the hospital that night, we said goodbye.

I walked into his room and lost all control. There were tubes feeding tubes feeding tubes. He was not responsive. He was not conscious. And so thus, you talk to, essentially, your dead father. That is something we do as human beings. We encourage our children to talk to people who can’t hear them, see them, talk to them, or touch them. This is supposed to be cathartic.

It’s not.

I don’t remember anything that I said. Not a thing. I don’t remember how long I was in that room for. I don’t remember anything except how my father looked. Dead.

The last time I had seen him he was sitting next to me on the couch at 6:50 am, watching MTV with me. No headache. No dizziness. Not even a sneeze. The next time I saw him, 16 hours later, and everything had changed.

Ten years later, and my dad is definitely alive. If I were to see him tonight, which I wish I could, he would look very different then he did ten years ago. No tubes. More gray hair. His face looks noticeably different, naturally.

The ten years since that stroke have been incredibly difficult for him. Six months after that stroke he suffered a massive seizure that nearly killed him. What followed was a series of smaller seizures. Therapy became more difficult for him because he didn’t see progress and he eventually gave up hope that he’d speak well ever again. His physical therapy afforded him the ability to walk, albeit with a slow hitch. Then, in 2008, my mother, for reasons I’ll never understand or accept, told my father that she wanted a divorce.

The last ten years of my dad’s life have been more difficult than any decade should be. My mother and sisters have chided me for “making excuses” for him. In my mind, the guy doesn’t need any excuses. Everything we take for granted was taken, inexplicably and without warning, from him.

I haven’t really talked to my dad in the last 10 years. We talk, but because of the limitations he faces, there’s no real substantive feelings expressed from him. Everything he wants to say is there. But it often can’t come out. And when it does, it’s just a word or two. In a decade, my dad hasn’t been able to adequately express how he feels. It confounds me, especially as someone who loves to hear himself speak, how one can live through that.

My intention here is to not bog down your day with my problems. That is not the point. We, as people, often need reminders to not take things for granted. Every January 31st, simply by looking at a calendar, I’m reminded of that. And it bothers me when this is regarded as cliche. A word like “cliche” should never be used to describe awareness and appreciation. The manner in which you wake up one day can be very different from the manner in which you go to sleep that same night, if you even get the opportunity to lay your head down at the end of the day. Your ability to express how you feel, to tell someone that you love them, can disappear in an instant. Just because you got to see someone before they left for work, does not mean you’ll get to see them when they’ve clocked out.

After I post this, I’m going to call my dad, and tell him I love him. It’ll be a vastly different conversation from the one I had ten years ago with him.

At Least I’m Not A Wizards Fan

January 13, 2012 / Jason / 1 Comment

Between January 7 and February 24, 2007, the Boston Celtics won one game. The team they beat was the Milwaukee Bucks. During that span, the Celtics went 1-22. It was, perhaps, the worst 23 game stretch in the history of the NBA’s most storied franchise. And it was brutal to watch. What is remarkable about that stretch is that the Celtics were not often blown out. They were relatively competitive in those games. They did get blown out by the Lakers by 28 and followed that up with an 18 point loss to the Jazz, but there were a lot of 7 and 8 point losses during that painful run.

What I recall from that period was just how much I enjoyed watching the Celtics. When I write that it was “painful” I mean that in the sense of losses. It’s never fun to watch your team lose 22 of 23 games. What I enjoyed in watching those games, though, was the effort. It was there. This was a team that was just undermanned.

On January 22, the Celtics lost to the eventual NBA champion Spurs. By 4 points. I remember watching this game in my dorm room in college, as I did the vast majority of those 23 games. Look at this starting lineup mismatch:

Spurs:

Fabricio Oberto

Tim Duncan

Bruce Bowen

Manu Ginobili

Tony Parker

Celtics:

Ryan Gomes

Delonte West

Al Jefferson

Kendrick Perkins

Gerald Green

The Celtics reserves that night included a young (and overmatched) Rajon Rondo, Sebastian Telfair, Leon Powe, and Allan Ray. No, not Ray Allen. Allan Ray.

There was no Big 3. Pierce was hurt. Garnett was a Timberwolf. Allen was a SuperSonic. Rondo’s line that night featured 30 minutes of 12% shooting and 3 turnovers. The Celtics leading scorer was Delonte West. The Celtics fell behind the Spurs in the 2nd quarter, but fought back in the fourth, coming within four points of knocking off the Spurs.

One of the silver linings of this 2006-07 season, one which the Celtics finished 24-58 was the upcoming NBA Draft and the promise of a lanky, sharpshooting Freshman from the University of Texas named Kevin Durant. And if not him, there was the big, athletic, Freshman-who-looks-like-a-Vietnam-Veteran from Ohio State named Greg Oden. I was a Durant supporter from the start and became enamored with the thought of the Celtics finishing with the second worst record and having the lottery balls fall their way so that someone else could take Oden first overall and the Celtics could have a future Hall of Famer fall into their laps.

I was sitting in a restaurant in Omaha, Nebraska on May 22, 2007. It was the night of the NBA Draft Lottery and the Celtics had the best chance at the best pick (the second). This was the era before smartphones. I was left to the text messages of a friend and fellow Celtics fan, Matt Minton. Before my meal was put in front of me, I got the message. It was a string of mashed key strokes. It looked like this: lkdajfiodjgiofdjfodjojo. It was and remains the Minton trademark, used to express anger, outrage, uncontrollable excitement, and general extreme emotion. The Celtics did not have luck on their side. They drew the fifth overall pick in the draft. My meal was ruined.

With that fifth pick, the Celtics drafted Jeff Green, an experienced but underwhelming forward from Georgetown. Green was not a Celtic for long, however. Realizing that they were staring down another season like the 2006-07 season, the Celtics decided to give up on their youth by acquiring veteran players hungry for a championship. Gone were Al Jefferson, Gerald Green, Sebastian Telfair, Jeff Green, Ryan Gomes, Delonte West, 2 first round draft picks, and a second round draft pick. Incoming were Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, and a rookie named Glen Davis.

The 2007-08 Boston Celtics were anything but the 2006-07 Celtics. The two teams looked and played nothing alike. The new Celtics were a defensive powerhouse. They were mean. They were physical. And they were winning.

On June 17, 2008, a year after one of the worst seasons in franchise history left the team with no direction and no hope, the Celtics lifted their first Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy since 1986. It was the first title I got to experience. There was jumping, chest pounding, smiling, and tears. And that was just me. There was the epic Kevin Garnett post-game interview. And KG was right. In that moment, anything was possible.

3 1/2 years later, on January 11, 2012, I asked myself if it was worth it. I thought that 2007-08 title would be the first of at least a few. I was wrong. The Celtics would get back to the finals once, but lose in Game 7 to the Lakers. 2010-11 ended with a very quick and quiet second round defeat at the hands of the Miami Heat. The young, dynamic Heat and the aging, banged-up Celtics looked like teams from different eras. Something had to be done, right?

Well, yes. But instead nothing was done. The Celtics tried to acquire Chris Paul, a player who would help them in a marginal way, for a short period of team, and add to the team’s youth in no way, but he made it clear that he didn’t want to come to Boston. And who could blame him?

Coming into the 2011-12 season, it was clear that there was not the personnel to make this team work, given such a grueling schedule. Add to that a foot injury to 34 year-old Paul Pierce (the youngest of the Big 3) and one could expect the Celtics to get off to a slow start. But, my God, is this slow or what?

On Wednesday, the equally old and slow Dallas Mavericks rolled into Boston for the Milk of Magnesia Bowl. The Readers Digest Festival. The Lawrence Welk Cup. The Celtics of 2006-07 would have beaten the 2011-12 Dallas Mavericks on pure youth. These were two old, tired teams, dragging through sludge. This was ugly. This was the 2011-12 NBA season for old teams.

I expect more of the same for the Celtics. Looking ahead at their schedule, I see some periods that will be an utter struggle. And for a team who finds itself 4-5 (with wins over 4 of the NBA’s worst teams) that’s not going to be good. From March 11-23, the Celtics will play 0 home games. They will play 8 road games. That’s 8 road games in 12 days. From LA (Lakers and Clippers) to Oakland to Sacramento to Denver to Atlanta to Milwaukee to Philadelphia. In late April, they’ll play 5 games in 6 days, including a back-to-back that will take them from Miami to a home game against Atlanta, back on the road to Toronto.

The road is an unforgiving place when you’re at the end of your career, when your knees are weak, when your feet are ailing, and especially when you don’t have a lot of help around you. This season is going to be an unforgiving one for the Boston Celtics. But this season isn’t the biggest concern. Next season is.

Where do you go from here if you’re the Celtics? Is Rajon Rondo the Point Guard of the future? You don’t bring back Ray Allen, do you? And you certainly don’t bring back KG, right? And with two first round picks (both of which will likely be mid-round picks), what direction do you go in? Last year the Celtics drafted E’Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson from Purdue, both veteran college players. Yet, even with a wealth of college experience, the two former Boilermakers are averaging a robust 1.8 ppg. Combined. They can’t find the court on a 4-5 team. The year before last, they drafted Avery Bradley. If you were to call Avery Bradley an “abject disappointment,” Kwame Brown would get jealous. Bradley has been, in a word, “useless.” There is no young foundation in Boston, save for Rondo.

And so that brings us to Rajon Rondo. Rondo has gone from an abysmal shooter to a reluctant one. Next year’s starting lineup is going to look a lot different and may even involve two rookies for all we know. What do you do, if you’re Boston, about your reluctant-to-shoot Point Guard, with a very friendly contract? Rondo has had plenty of time to become a more willing and better shooter. Neither has happened. Someone will need to score points along with Paul Pierce.

The last area where a team can build for the future is of course through free agency. It’s harder in the NBA because, generally, you’re not going to find a lot of in-their-prime free agent talents. You’ll either get undrafted rookies or veterans playing out their career. The Celtics have made a habit out of signing those guys in recent years. And there will be plenty of them in 2012. But that won’t get the Celtics back onto the Boulevard of the Elites. In fact, it’ll take them further off course onto Middling, Directionless Drive.

I keep going back to 2007. I keep asking if it was worth it to win that one title. Couldn’t the Celtics have built a team around Jeff Green, Rajon Rondo, Al Jefferson, Kendrick Perkins, Ryan Gomes, and Paul Pierce. Maybe had one more down year, ended up in the lottery, and drafted Eric Gordon, Brandon Rush, or Roy Hibbert? Rondo, Pierce, Green, Jefferson, and Hibbert with Perkins off the bench? It wouldn’t have won a title, but it would have been something right?

Or was 2008 the point? Does it seem like it was a mistake because the only championship came so soon? Would it have been better for the Celtics to have lost the 2008 final, and come back in 2008-09 to win the championship? Or is this all just fantasy? I know that answer.

Still, above all else, I go back to May 22, 2007. All that floundering in 2006-07 was for not. All that losing. Playing all of that youth. What did it get? Jeff Green, who now finds himself back with the Celtics, but unable to play because of a heart condition. When I watch the 2011-12 Boston Celtics, it’s just not fun. And it’s only going to get less fun from here.

The New Hampshire Primary OR Me Talking About College Basketball

January 11, 2012 / Jason / 1 Comment

I’ve been wracking my brain trying to think of blog ideas. My head is filled with frameworks. There’s a non-sports idea in there trying to examine why we, as people, live where we live. There’s a baseball hot stove post up there. There’s a Greg Stiemsma post. There was a BCS National Championship preview (though I was less excited about that because I had already written at length about those teams).

Today, though, because we’re at about the halfway mark in the season, you get some college basketball. A little more analysis on the front-end as I try to highlight a few teams who aren’t getting the pub I think they deserve.

What follows is how I rank college basketball’s best 10, so far in 2011-12. This has less to do with where I think they’ll end up than where I think they are today.

10. UNLV (14-2, Strength of Schedule (SOS): 60, 2-2 vs. Top 25)

Losses to Wisconsin and Wichita State. Wins over Illinois and North Carolina. The Wisconsin loss makes sense because they’re a matchup problem for most teams if they can dictate the tempo. If you can play slow against Wisconsin, you’re probably going to win. If you only know one speed (fast), you’re going to have to make the Badgers run. If you don’t, they’ll lull you to death. Or, if I’m being less dramatic, defeat.

UNLV’s win over North Carolina was not some sort of aberration. The analysts said, “Well, UNLV was playing in their backyard (the game was on a neutral court in Las Vegas. The “LV” in “UNLV” stands for “Las Vegas.”).” My response? So what! So the Tar Heels played on the road against the Rebels. They lost. Convincingly. Even more convincingly than the 10 point difference.

To the average college fan, the loss to Wichita State might seem like a red flag. That’s because the average fan doesn’t know how good the Wichita State Shockers are. 12-3 overall. Losses to Temple, Alabama, and the 11th best team in the country, the Creighton Blue Jays. Currently ranked 24th in Jeff Sagarin’s computer rankings. Only two teams in the top 10 have a better strength of schedule than the Shockers.

UNLV is here because they do everything, offensively, well. They’re in the top 31 in the nation in field goal shooting, points per game, rebounds, and assists per game. They’re efficient and effective, led by Chase Stanbeck (shooting 46% from 3) and Mike Moser, each averaging over 14 points per game.

Biggest remaining game of the season: This Saturday at San Diego State. A win in front of “The Show” at Viejas Arena should very well catapult the Rebels into the real-life Top 10. San Diego State is just as for real as the Rebels. I expect the Aztecs to win the home tilt. Still, I think UNLV has a chance to be an Elite 8 team this year. With the talent they have, anything short of the Sweet 16 will be a disappointment.

9. Kansas (12-3, SOS: 10, 3-2 vs. Top 25)

The losses came to Davidson, Kentucky, and Duke. Which one is not like the others? The Davidson loss is an outlier. Each team is going to have one of those nights in the course of a season. The Kentucky and Duke losses, well, those make sense.

What puts Kansas in this list is a victory against Ohio State. Second tier wins against Long Beach State, Kansas State, and Georgetown are nice too. Kansas does nothing particularly well. Their offense is perfectly middle-of-the-pack. So is their defense. This is a team that will get by on talent. As long as Tyshawn Taylor, their often troubled, sharp-shooting guard (44% from 3) stays out of trouble, Kansas can find itself in the Final Four.

Biggest remaining game of the season: Monday January 16, at home, against Baylor. This will be the game of January, on paper. Kansas needs to win at home. They’ll play again in February in Waco. Until then, a win against an undefeated Baylor team will give the Jayhawks a lot of momentum and vocal support.

8. Michigan State (14-2, SOS: 40, 3-2 vs. Top 25)

Michigan State lost their first two games of the season, to North Carolina (on a boat) and on a neutral court against Duke. Since then, they’ve lost to no one.

The Spartans were (and in a lot of ways, remain) an unproven commodity. The players are fairly nameless, outside of Draymond Green. The coach though, is not. Tom Izzo was able to keep a young team on track after their season began with two consecutive losses. Since the Duke game, the Spartans have beaten Gonzaga in Spokane, Indiana in East Lansing, and Wisconsin in Madison. They’ve also gotten strong off of the likes of Central Connecticut State, Missouri-Kansas City, and Bowling Green. But sometimes the most dangerous thing for a young team (or at least for their opponents) is to taste victory. Once you get the flavor of victory on your tongue, it’s hard to get it off. Right now, the Spartans have that taste. And no one has taken it off since November 15.

Biggest remaining game of the season: February 11, at Ohio State. We’ll find out if they’re for real then. Columbus isn’t an easy place to win. But if the Spartans still haven’t tasted defeat, well, that could be a big game for both teams.

7. Indiana (15-1, SOS: 125, 2-1 vs. Top 25)

I’ve watched no team this season more than the Hoosiers. And I’ve loved what I’ve seen.

If not for the loss at Michigan State, the Hoosiers would be the number 1 team in the country. A buzzer beater win over Kentucky put IU back in the national spotlight. A New Years Eve win over Ohio State helped some people forget about that loss to the Spartans.

Part of the issue for Indiana is that no one knows any of their players. The program has been so far off the radar for the last few seasons. But it appears that while no one was paying attention, Tom Crean was building a powerhouse out of 4 and 5 star recruits.

The Hoosiers’ calling card is their offense. 8th in the country in scoring per game. No team shoots it better from 3. And the Hoosiers have one of the best on-ball defenders in college basketball in Victor Oladipo.

The downfall of IU will come off the glass. If they have an off shooting night, they will lose. Plain and simple. The Hoosiers are a subpar rebounding team with a fair amount of size, but not a ton of physicality down low. Indiana played near perfect games against Ohio State and Kentucky. Anything less than perfect and the Buckeyes or Wildcats would have won.

If IU can play perfect basketball for two weeks (past the Round of 32) I think they can win the National Championship. They’re really good. I look forward to seeing them hit the road in the Big 10. That’s when we’ll see if this team really can get to NOLA.

Biggest remaining game of the season: January 15, at Ohio State. The Buckeyes will get redemption. What’s going to matter after that game is how the Hoosiers bounce back.

6. Duke (13-2, SOS: 6, 2-1 vs. Top 25)

The losses were to Ohio State in Columbus (in blowout fashion) and at Temple last week.

There’s really no need to talk about Duke at length. They’ll go as far as they can without being able to rebound. The moment they run into a physical, rebounding team (North Carolina, Kentucky, Michigan State, Kansas State), they’ll go down. For Duke, their success in March will be about their draw. If they have a Sweet 16 matchup against Kansas State, look out.

Biggest remaining game of the season: March 3 vs. North Carolina. I fully expect the Devils to lose in Chapel Hill. That’s expected. A loss at home though will prove the hypothesis, that this team isn’t tough enough, true.

5. Baylor (14-0, SOS: 172, 1-0 vs. Top 25)

That one victory was against Saint Mary’s. They’ve also beaten West Virginia and San Diego State. These are all good teams, but these aren’t wins like UNLV’s against North Carolina or Indiana’s against Ohio State and Kentucky.

Baylor is only here because they’re undefeated. They haven’t had to play any tough road games, save for a trip to Provo (and they needed a buzzer beater to knock off the Cougars). Baylor has played like the richer man’s Kansas. They’re a team with a ton of talent, but they’re not great at anything. They’re long and athletic. But they’re not big and physical. They’re not necessarily quick. There aren’t a lot of great ball handlers. They’re slashers. They’re the sort of team that has to constantly dictate tempo to get where they want to go. And I don’t see that lasting for a while. But it’s hard to argue with undefeated.

(As a sidebar, Murray State is also undefeated. They have played a weaker schedule than Baylor’s 172nd. The Racers have a legitimate shot at an undefeated regular season, but I don’t think they’re anything more than a possible Sweet 16 team. And even that might be a stretch.)

Biggest remaining game of the season: The next one. Which happens to be tonight at Kansas State. The same Wildcats team who just knocked off the undefeated Missouri Tigers. If Baylor wins that game, the next one will remain the biggest. Can Baylor get to the Final Four? Yes. But anyone can do that. VCU did it last year. Do I think Baylor will get to the Final Four? No. I think they slip up in the second round of the tournament. Their a team that can be beaten who just hasn’t been yet. That will come.

4. Syracuse (17-0, SOS: 92, 2-0 vs. Top 25)

Much like with Baylor, I don’t buy the undefeated start. The Orange beat Florida (at home) by 4 and Marquette (at home) by 7. Those are by far their best victories. They’ve played 3 games on the road all season. This is a team that will likely finish the year with only 2 or 3 losses and will receive a number 1 seed. But you’re kidding yourself if you think they have the talent to get to New Orleans. They don’t. I’m not buying a team from the Big East who can’t rebound.

Biggest remaining game of the season: Much like Baylor, it’s always going to be the next one. Syracuse’s next one is Wednesday at Villanova.

3. North Carolina (14-2, SOS: 196, 2-2 vs. Top 25)

2. Ohio State (15-2, SOS: 156, 1-2 vs. Top 25)

1. Kentucky (15-1, SOS: 224, 3-1 vs. Top 25)

I’m grouping these three together because their numbers for the season are so similar. They’re all playing week schedules. They’ve all lost at least 1 game. The Wildcats are my number one team for a few reasons. Their only loss was on the road, to a top 10 team, at the buzzer. And they beat Carolina. And they have the best interior defense in the country. And the best freshman in Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.

The Buckeyes find themselves ahead of the Tar Heels because of the dreaded eye test. I’ve liked watching Ohio State more than Carolina. They look like the better team when they’re at their best. The numbers don’t back that up at all. North Carolina has the number one offense in the country. They’re coached by Roy Williams. They’re littered with stars. Ohio State plays good defense, shoots well, and passes well, but that’s it really. They’re Jared Sullinger (who has found himself injured twice this season) and some really good players, but no real stars outside of him. They’re coached by Thad Matta, a marvelous recruiter, but a guy who’s never won a title. And Ohio State has the tougher schedule of the two. So call it a limb, but it’s one that I’m willing to go out on. And I’m willing to shift my preseason pick. For now, I’ll take Kentucky over Ohio State in the title game. But I’m allowed to change that at the 3/4 mark of the season.

Get Lucky Tonight

January 2, 2012 / Jason / Leave a comment

Vacations, the Holidays, and generally having some semblance of a life has kept me from enjoying bowl season. That is not a complaint. In fact, it’s something I’m happy about. I don’t usually find myself watching a lot of bowl games because, well, they’re not all that relevant. Don’t take this as a complaint about too many bowls. I don’t think there are enough. I love that sponsors are so willing to provide colleges with money for playing in an exhibition game. I also love that the law of our nation does not require me, as a vocal fan of college football, to watch whatever the Belk Bowl is.

As I write this brief entry, I have the Rose Bowl Game on. On a 1-10 scale of excitement for this game, I’m about a 3.2. That is the highest my excitement rating has been this bowl season. And to be honest, I’m really only watching because I haven’t seen a Rose Bowl Game in at least five years and thought I was due.

Tonight though will be a little different. Tonight is the Fiesta Bowl. Oklahoma State and Stanford play each other. For Oklahoma State, this is an important game because they were kept out of the BCS National Championship Game. They have something to prove. But I’m a little less concerned with the Pokes. I think they’re going to get destroyed.

My excitement for the Fiesta Bowl (about a 7.1) has only to do with it being Andrew Luck’s last college game. I implore you, NFL fans, to watch tonight’s game if only to get a head start on falling in love with the perfect QB. Don’t wait until next year when he’s starting for the Colts on Day 1, as he should be. No QB as good as Luck should have to sit for “2-3 years” behind any other QB. The Packers wasted years with Aaron Rodgers playing behind Brett Favre. The Colts would be wise to trade Peyton Manning, and give Andrew Luck the car keys on Day 1.

Watch tonight as Andrew Luck carves up the Oklahoma State defense (one of the worst in the country) like a classically trained butcher. Don’t worry about the fact that he’s not facing a challenge. He’s faced plenty of challenges in his career and succeeded. Watch tonight to enjoy and appreciate.

And one more thing: I cannot listen to another person talk about Robert Griffin III in the same breaths as Andrew Luck. They talk about how Griffin III is a wonderful kid, very smart, and very accomplished on the football field as evidence of how he should be the top overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft. Andrew Luck is all of those things as well. The biggest difference between the two though is that Luck has been running a pro style offense, with a massive playbook, and audible liberties, for years. Griffin III plays in a spread system, in a conference not exactly overflowing with quality pass defenses. Griffin III will be a serviceable enough NFL QB. His ceiling is Donovan McNabb. Andrew Luck is his own ceiling. The sky is truly the limit. Prognosticators tend to get bored with players who are always great in everything that they do, like Luck and become enamored with the new guy, in this case Griffin III. For the Colts sake, I hope that they don’t fall into that trap.

2011-12 NBA 66 Game Season Spectacular Preview (A Preview)

December 22, 2011 / Jason / 1 Comment

My “dream” of a full, 2011-12 NBA lockout didn’t come to fruition. This is unfortunate for college basketball, which is in the midst of a very exciting season, with a huge game (Louisville at Kentucky on December 31) coming up next week.

Now, I don’t hate the NBA and have never claimed to. I find the NBA’s regular season to be as exciting as combing my hair, cutting my fingernails, and putting on deodorant. It’s just something that you have to do. Most of the time, you’re not even aware that you’re doing it. And only once in a great while will you get a really good style; something that you feel really good about when you leave the house.

Part of the problem with the NBA regular season is that more than half the teams in the league make the playoffs, which is kind of absurd. If 16 teams made the playoffs in Major League Baseball, the Washington Nationals and Cleveland Indians would have made the playoffs. Both finished below .500. Having sub-.500 teams qualify for the postseason renders the really good regular season matchups kind of obsolete. Yes it’s nice to get excited about a Heat/Bulls or Celtics/Magic game, but ask yourself if you’re seeing full effort from every player when they’re all certain that they’re playoff bound. In those games, maybe you are. Say you are 75% of the time. What happens when there’s a Heat/Hornets or Celtics/Bucks game? How low is that percentage?

What I’m getting at and what will assuredly annoy some, is that the NBA’s regular season stinks a fair amount of the time. Once in a while you have an exciting matchup on paper and it lives up to it on the court. More often than not though, the Rockets and Hawks are playing and you’re just asking yourself, “Why am I watching this? Does Josh Smith really care about the outcome of this game? Does he care as much as I do? I hope he doesn’t care as much as I do, but he looks like he doesn’t. Oh God, my life is so sad….”

The NBA: Where Self-Loathing Happens!

The NBA recently announced a new NBA League Pass plan, where you can pick five teams, get all of their games, and pay less money. My five (though I am an MLB.TV subscriber, I do not plan on purchasing League Pass)

1.) Boston Celtics

I mean, obviously.

2.) Oklahoma City Thunder

Watching Kevin Durant is something we should all be thankful for.

3.) Los Angeles Clippers

Lob city.

4.) Golden State Warriors

You’re guaranteed an exciting game every time out. Or at the very least, a lot of scoring.

5.) Sacramento Kings

Jimmer. Tyreke. DeMarcus. Another team that will be fun to watch under Paul Westphal’s offensive gameplan.

A hat tip to Chris Ferreira for pointing out on twitter the error one would make in picking teams like the Lakers, Heat, and Knicks. So many of their games will be on ESPN, TNT, or NBA TV, that you’re much wiser using those extra slots for teams who don’t get a lot of pub. He took the Pacers who are certainly in my top 10 and are a team that I think will make a big leap forward in 2011-12.

On to the playoffs:

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1. Miami Heat

2. Chicago Bulls

3. New York Knicks

4. Indiana Pacers

5. Orlando Magic

6. Boston Celtics

7. Atlanta Hawks

8. Philadelphia 76ers

That 8 spot could belong to anyone except for Washington. I think the Celtics age is what lands them in the sixth spot with a tough first round matchup with the Knicks. Ultimately though, I think the Heat run away with the East. I expect a 58-8 season from the Heat. Indiana gives them a little trouble in the second round, taking them to 6 games, but the skill of the Heat will lead them to a first round sweep of Philly and a Eastern Conference Finals dismantling of the Bulls.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

1. Oklahoma City Thunder

2. San Antonio Spurs

3. Memphis Grizzlies

4. Los Angeles Clippers

5. Denver Nuggets

6. Dallas Mavericks

7. Portland Trail Blazers

8. New Orleans Hornets

For all the shifting of players, including Carmelo and Amar’e coming to New York, the West, overall, is still best, especially when it comes to depth. Miami, Chicago, and New York don’t have a lot of depth. Oklahoma City, San Antonio, and Memphis are built on depth. And depth will be key in a 66-game schedule with many back-to-back and a few back-to-back-to backs. I like the top 3 to advance and the Nuggets to beat the Clippers (I love Denver’s depth). After that, Oklahoma City and Memphis will play to seven games in the Western Conference Finals, with the Thunder winning at home.

NBA FINALS

Miami over Oklahoma City in 5. The Thunder get one step closer, only to be run off the court by a hungry, focused Miami Heat team, led by LeBron James.

NBA MVP: LeBron James

NBA Coach of the Year: Erik Spoelstra

First NBA Coach to get Fired: Flip Saunders

Sidebar:

A few weeks ago, I was challenged by a coworker to list my NBA playoff teams off the top of my head and I said the Washington Wizards would be the Eastern Conference’s 8 seed. For some reason, (homerism? high from watching this year’s Kentucky team causing me to think John Wall can carry an NBA team?) I thought that Washington was somehow a good team. Two nights later, albeit in a preseason game, they got blown out by the Philadelphia 76ers, who aren’t exactly Jordan’s Bulls. They’re not even Jordan’s Wizards.

My thought about depth being key in 2011-12 (actually stolen from Bill Simmons) led me to believe that the Wizards could be a viable playoff team because thye have a lot of players. The inherent flaw in that logic is that to have good depth you also have to have good players. The Wizards don’t.

Right away, a statement like that leads people to throw up their hands in the name of John Wall. But I ask of them, what exactly has John Wall accomplished in his career. If I went onto the playgrounds of DC, or New York, or hell, Indiana, I could find you an athletic, 6 foot guard who could play 38 minutes and shoot 5-for-18 from the field. Of course, he might not be as quick as Wall, but what good is quickness when you don’t know how to use it. Wall seems to be much too content to take stupid 3s, which has never been his strong suit. He’s like a faster Rajon Rondo. Or at least he should be. Instead, he’d rather be the poor man’s Allen Iverson. Remind me, how many championships (college, pro, Olympics) did AI win? I’ll be waiting here while you look that up. Take your time.

This doesn’t fall entirely on the shoulders of John Wall. Lots of blame belongs to GM Ernie Grunfeld, who has built an absurd team that somehow has 10 forwards on the current roster. The team’s center is JaVale McGee, who not a lot of fans hear much about, but who has made quiet a name for himself in DC. McGee has shown no recognition of the proper way one should represent himself and his organization. But with nothing else in the system, and no free agents willing to come to a dysfunctional situation, the Wizards are stuck with the immature McGee. And he’s what counts for veteran leadership here.

Flip Saunders will be fired before any other NBA coach because it’s abundantly clear after two preseason games that this team isn’t going to play for him now. They didn’t do it last season. Nothing has changed.

NBA Rookie of the Year (a top 5 rookies to watch):

5. Alec Burks- He can’t shoot a lick, but he made a name for himself at Colorado for his ability to slash and get to the line. He’ll do the same in Utah for a Jazz team that isn’t going anywhere except the Lottery.

4. Ricky Rubio- Speaking of inability to shoot….As a playmaker, Rubio will make an already very watchable Minnesota team even more watchable. Look for the Timberwolves to make a run at the 8 spot in the West.

3. Kyrie Irving- Speaking of inability to shoot….Irving is the rich man’s Alec Burks, except he’s also a marvelous passer. He’ll be a bit hidden on a terrible Cleveland team, which could limit his vote count.

2. Norris Cole- Cole is a stat-sheet-stuffer. He’ll start the year as the Heat’s backup PG, but do not be surprised if he finishes as their starter. He gives meaning to the (fast becoming tired) phrase “ball so hard.” The definition of that? Look at his line in this game last year at Cleveland State against Youngstown State.

1. Jimmer Fredette- Okay, this guy can shoot. The Jimmer will put up big numbers for a team no one will watch, Luckily for him, he comes in with the name recognition that a lot of his rookie peers do not and he’ll be able to get over the fact that his team is never on national TV.

That’s all folks. Before I go though, I would like to congratulate the 2011-12 Miami Heat on their NBA championship. We’ll all be rooting for you…

Excitement and Anger

November 30, 2011 / Jason / 1 Comment

Two brief thoughts on things that would take more than 140 characters to talk about:

1.) Tonight’s Duke/Ohio State game pits two of the most impressive teams I have seen all season. Duke has looked great playing a very tough schedule (Belmont, Michigan State, Michigan, Tennessee, and Kansas). Ohio State has looked great, um, playing Florida? The Buckeyes’ schedule has not been very daunting, but they’ve handled it very well (see: UConn losing to Central Florida as an example of the opposite).

If you read my season preview, you’ll know that I picked both of these teams to reach the Final Four, with the Buckeyes winning it all. Trust me, neither team has done anything to indicate that I was crazy in these predictions.

The matchup to watch tonight doesn’t involve Ohio State’s star Jared Sullinger, or either of Duke’s Plumlee brothers. No, I’ll be watching the best defensive guard in the country, Ohio State’s Aaron Craft, and the most heralded freshman in the nation, Duke’s Austin Rivers. This is where I think the game will be won by Ohio State. Expect Craft to swarm Rivers, who has been susceptible to the turnover early on (and susceptible to bad shots). I think Craft finishes the game with 5 steals. And Ohio State comes away with a 9 point victory. And if you, for whatever reason, can’t get to the game tonight (9:30 pm/ESPN), don’t fret. I think you’ll have a chance to see the rematch in early April. I will not be waiting until April.

2.) I often find myself enraged by inconsequential things. Anyone who knows me well, or sits near me at work, knows this. On Saturday, I gave the finger to a man who honked at a stoplight because the woman in front of me didn’t start moving quickly enough once the light turned green. The man, a taxi driver, made a point to pull up next to me and roll his window down, staring angrily at me at the next stoplight. I didn’t say a word. But I did think to myself, “This guy could just shoot Amanda and me right now.” Of course, the satisfaction I felt was completely outweighed by the danger I put myself and my live-in life partner in. But I know that my irrational anger will never change. It’s part of the fabric that makes me who I am.

Today, I want to give the finger to a number of pundits, both real and wannabe (like me!). This has nothing to do with traffic lights. Instead, it focuses on the BCS National Championship. You’ll recall that a few weeks ago, LSU and Alabama played a tightly contested game in Tuscaloosa that Louisiana State University won 9-6 in overtime.

I enjoyed this game very much. I do not care for the game that Big XII fans call “football,” where teams line up 5 wide receivers and have a quarterback throw to one of them, followed by everyone running to the new line of scrimmage, and repeating. Over and over. For 4 hours. Never once stopping to think, “Hey, maybe we should try to slow the other team down.” That’s not football. I mean, it’s football. But Red Grange rolls over in his grave when he watches Baylor play Oklahoma State.

This coming Saturday, the Big XII’s two best teams will square off in Stillwater, Oklahoma. And if the host Cowboys of Oklahoma State win, the town criers will gather and scream and beg. Their cause? Not wanting to watch a football game.

You see, LSU is undefeated and, barring a highly unlikely blowout loss to Georgia on Saturday, will assuredly find itself in the BCS Championship in January. The other spot is up for grabs. Most people believe it comes down to Alabama (1 loss, to LSU) and Oklahoma State (1 loss, to something called Iowa State).

Not wanting to see a rematch of a game you did not enjoy is not a proper measuring stick for determining the second best team in the country. Schedules are. Alabama wiped a very good Arkansas team off the field (as did LSU). Alabama barely lost to the best college defense I’ve seen in over a decade (LSU). Alabama beat a good Penn State team (B.S. “Before Sandusky) on the road. Alabama beat a then ranked Florida team, rather easily, on the road. Oklahoma State lost to Iowa State, who (with one game to play) find themselves 6-5. They barely beat Texas A&M and nearly lost to Kansas State. They also blew out teams like Kansas, Arizona, and Louisiana-Lafayette (who are a combined 14-22 on the season).

The thing that separates Oklahoma State and Alabama above all else though is this: 27.3 vs. 8.8. Those numbers are the average points allowed by each team’s defense, per game. Guess which one is Alabama.

The town criers will shout too about Oklahoma State’s wonder of an offense. And it is very impressive. They really did a great job of scoring a lot of points this season. They averaged 49.8 points per game. Alabama, of course, must have put up some pretty paltry numbers though, because they only scored 6 points against LSU. Yes, the Crimson Tide only averaged a pedestrian 36 points per game.

A great injustice will be done to the University of Alabama if a group of rogue voters decide on Saturday night (presuming an Oklahoma State win, which I don’t think will happen anyway) that they want to be the directors of programming for ESPN. The right to vote in polls does not include the right to choose what games you want to watch. I’d love to see Houston play LSU. I know that’s unrealistic. I also know that Alabama is better than Houston. In a 1-off game, the Cougars could beat LSU or Alabama. If they played 100 times, though, they’d lose about 99 them. I feel similarly about Oklahoma State’s chances. Especially when you consider that their exact offense is derived from the one that Houston runs. And Houston has the better quarterback.

I’ll be rooting for either of two scenarios when the final BCS standings are released Sunday night: 1.) Oklahoma State would have lost and LSU would have won or 2.) The people who think they get to choose what games they want to see decide to vote the truly deserving team #2 overall and just leave their TVs off on January 9th. There will be plenty of other people watching a real football game that night.

The Myriad Consequences of Turning A Blind Eye

November 10, 2011 / Jason / 2 Comments

This is not about Joe Paterno, the football coach. This is only about Joe Paterno, the person.

This isn’t about Joe Paterno’s 409 career victories. This isn’t about Joe Paterno passing Amos Alonzo Stagg for most games coached in college football. This isn’t about anything that happens on the field at Beaver Stadium in State College, PA.

This is about the failings of human beings, across a number of fronts.

And it is about legacies.

I don’t need to rehash the story at Penn State. And I only feel it necessary to comment because of the anger it stirs in me.Anger that stretches beyond the actions of Jerry Sandusky. What Sandusky did, over the span of at least a decade, is enough for me to advocate for the death penalty. Thankfully, I know that his prison term, when it comes, will not last very long. He will be handled in an appropriate manner by his fellow convicts. The American justice system will have done its part.

This is about Joe Paterno, the human being. This is about his defenders. This is about people with misguided priorities.

Joe Paterno may very well be a nice man. I know, from watching sports and reading about sports, that he is, in fact, not quite Mr. Rogers. He’s also not Hitler. He’s somewhere in between, like most of us. Joe Paterno may be a giving man. He may be humble. He may write really nice handwritten notes to friends and give thoughtful gifts to people.

The one thing I know about Joe Paterno is that one day, in 2002, he exhibited horrendous judgement. And for that, he deserves to be removed of his title of Head Coach of Football at Pennsylvania State University. Given the information by Graduate Assistant and former QB Mike McQueary that former coach Jerry Sandusky had raped a young boy in the showers of the athletic facility, Paterno did not go to police. Given the opportunity to prevent further horrific exploitation of children, Paterno didn’t go to police. No one did. They allowed a friend, colleague, and alum to carry on. State it any way you would like. But if Paterno (or McQueary, or school officials) had gone to the authorities, dozens of victims may have been spared. Instead, Jerry Sandusky was asked to not bring any children onto the campus. Heaven forbid he rape children on campus when he could do it anywhere else. Out of sight….

I’m beyond disgusted by the failings of Joe Paterno. I don’t know why Paterno didn’t go to the police. He says that he wasn’t told of the “graphic nature” of the incident. He testified that McQueary told him (Paterno) that he saw Sandusky fondling the boy. Was that not enough for Paterno? Would he rather have heard the graphic details?

Today, the winningest coach in college football history announced his retirement, effective at the end of the season. The end of the season cannot come soon enough. No parent should have to send their 18 year old son into the care of a man and an organization who turned away from such actions. We spend a lot of time talking about scandal in college football. Usually a booster giving money to an impoverished kid in exchange for his national letter of intent. And we act like the world is ending. Like lives are truly destroyed by this.

Lives were destroyed by Jerry Sandusky. To the defenders of Joe Paterno, many of them his former players, I ask them to take a moment to examine the scope of this situation. This is not a rogue booster slipping an envelope to an 18 year old kid, his father, or a middleman. This is the guy down the hall. The alum. The former coach. This is a guy with an office in the facility. A guy who was inexplicably on campus as recently as last week. 9 years after Mike McQueary (now the team’s WR coach) walked in on him in a shower with a boy. It’s disgusting. It’s appalling. It’s embarrassing.

I’ve heard a lot in the last few days about Joe Paterno’s spirit. I’ve heard him called “a fighter.” I wonder what exactly he is fighting. He made an egregious mistake. Not a football mistake. A human mistake. And he deserves to be punished for it, legacy be damned. Joe Paterno would not be coaching my team this Saturday against Nebraska. And he would not be coaching any subsequent games.

People say that he doesn’t deserve that kind of ending. And in a sense, that’s true. Football coach Joe Paterno deserves a hero’s sendoff. Banquets and bouquets from folks across the Big 10. Football coach Joe Paterno deserves his name on Beaver Stadium. Football coach Joe Paterno deserves one last celebratory game in State College.

Human Joe Paterno deserves none of that.

Not Locked Out: A 2011-12 College Basketball Preview

November 8, 2011 / Jason / Leave a comment

If there has ever been a better year for college basketball, I wasn’t alive. Or at the very least aware enough. The sport is operating off of two winning tracks in 2011: (And the season gets underway tonight.)

1.) The best talent in the sport in almost 20 years:

-Something strange happened at the conclusion of last season. 3 of the game’s biggest stars (Ohio State’s Jared Sullinger, Kentucky’s Terrence Jones, and North Carolina’s Harrison Barnes) all decided to return to school rather than join the NBA. Whether that was to win a title this year or because of the impending NBA lockout isn’t really important. What’s important is that their back. And their returns are reflected in the Preseason Top 25 as well. 1. North Carolina, 2. Kentucky, 3. Ohio State.

-Outside of returning stars, as is the case every year, an influx of great freshman talent comes into the national periphery this season. Austin Rivers at Duke. Anthony Davis, Marquis Teague, and Michael Gilchrist at Kentucky. Andre Drummond at UConn. James McAdoo at North Carolina. And on. And on. A never ending list of 4 and 5 star talent. And each of those guys is expected to play a huge role on a National Championship contender.

2.) Hey, where’s the NBA?

-While the millionaires and billionaires argue about BRI (Basketball-Related Income) fans are left with a void when it comes to basketball. Where do they turn? Well, the answer is simple of course. It’s either college basketball or nothing. And because of the endless list of talent in the 2011-12 season, I think more people will watch the regular season than at any point in the last 20 years. So thank you, NBA lockout, for making college basketball better on two tracks this year.

Those of you who have read this blog since its inception (that’s just me) know that I rarely ever write an extensive college basketball preview. And this year isn’t really an exception. Trying to predict a college basketball season is very hard. In most sports, you have a season that determines something important. College basketball’s does not. 68 teams get into the tournament. Some of them are really mediocre. Others are really good. But once the postseason (March Madness) begins, it matters not what you did in the regular season. At all. There’s no home court advantage. There’s no Best-of-7. Or Best-of-5. If you finished the regular season 31-2, you are not guaranteed a run to the Final Four. In fact, in the second round, you might get face a team that poses stylistic matchup problems for your team. Or you might have to play near their campus. Or you might be playing in front of a hostile crowd, rooting for the upset. 31-2 matters not. Conference championships don’t either. It’s really all about March.

Now, that doesn’t mean we can’t enjoy November-early March. There will be a number of great games on the schedule. Must-watchers if you will, at least for the sheer excitement and talent level. Games in December can have rematches in March. And games in December can derail a team’s run to be one of the good, lucky, and mediocre 68. Here are 5 pre-March Madness games that are not to be missed:

1. North Carolina @ Kentucky (December 3, 2011)

We had the Game of the Century in college football this past weekend. This could be college basketball’s version. Both teams have tough games prior to this tilt (North Carolina against Wisconsin, Kentucky against Kansas and St. Johns). I expect both to be undefeated. If they are, this is the one not-to-miss in 2011-12.

2. North Carolina @ Duke (March 3, 2011)

They play in Chapel Hill in early February, but there’s something special about these games at Cameron Indoor. And this will be a special game.

3. Duke @ Ohio State (November 29, 2011)

The ACC/Big 10 challenge brings us this gem and one of the only potential hiccups for Ohio State before they begin conference play. For Duke, it’s their first true road game. A potential Final Four game.

4. UConn @ Syracuse (February 11, 2011)

The first of two meetings between the two rivals who should both be ranked in the Top 5 (and very possibly undefeated) when they square off on a Saturday afternoon.

5. Louisville @ Kentucky (December 31, 2011)

Not a bad way to end 2011. This is a big game for Rick Pitino. And that’s an understatement. The Cardinals have underachieved with a talented roster for the last few years. Bringing down a lot of people’s favorite to win it all would be a huge statement for Pitino and Louisville.

Also of note, North Carolina and Michigan State will play a game on a boat this Friday. The President will be there. Michigan State is not very good this year.

Projected Final Four

(just because it’s hard to predict, doesn’t mean I’m not going to try)

North Carolina

Kentucky

Ohio State

Duke

In the championship game, I’ll take the inside-out duo of Aaron Craft and Jared Sullinger over North Carolina’s star-studded front court.

Sleeper Four (Four teams outside of the Top 10 today who could be around in early April in New Orleans)

Baylor

Wisconsin

UCLA

Xavier

Oh, and let the NBA take their time. They can take the whole season as far as I’m concerned.

Mid-Atlantic Bias

A blog by Jason Botelho about sports and other Jason Botelho things