100 Favorite Albums of the Decade

I’ve never felt comfortable writing about music. Sports? Of course. Struggles with anxiety? Yup. Music? TERROR.

This likely stems from my insecurity when it comes to the music I like, combined with my inability to talk or write about music in the technical sense. I’ll use words here like “produced” and truth-be-told, I have no idea what I’m actually talking about.

The music that I like is very white and for most of my life trended very, very male. And you’ll see a lot of that here, if for some reason you’ve decided to tackle this very long post, which I doubt many, if any, of you will.

These albums are ranked solely on their importance to me. This is important to stress. I am not ranking the 100 greatest pieces of art in the 2010s. I am ranking albums based on how much I, the writer of this post, enjoyed and continue to enjoy, these albums.

The difference between 100 and, say, 50, isn’t huge. The albums at the top of this list are ones that I connected with on a grand scale. The ones closer to the top of the post, well, I’ll explain each of them, but suffice to say, they each had their moment. Some of those moments were just shorter.

There are great or critically-acclaimed albums from this decade that I simply did not connect with. I’ve tried to get better at just accepting that as being what it is, but I still feel like I should have liked “Lemonade” or one of FKA Twigs’ albums more. But I didn’t. Again, I am not a music expert or an authority. I’m fully aware of the lack of diversity in this list.

The only rule here is that I limited each credited artist or band to 3 albums. As I’ll explain, there is one artist who appears here five times, as a member of a band, as a producer, and as a solo artist.

So let’s get it started on a weird one or two, shall we?

100. Taking Back Sunday “Tidal Wave”

At the start of the decade, if you had told me that this list would start with a Taking Back Sunday album, I would have institutionalized myself. I strive for personal growth in all that I do. And yet, here’s a band from my time in high school, creeping onto a list I’m writing as a 35 year old. It’s here largely because it’s a fun album that felt like growth from a band that had previously been fairly retrograde in its treatment of its female antagonists. To be clear, there are clunkers here and it’s not a “good” album, but it felt like a nice link back to my previous decade.

99. Waka Flocka Flame “Flockaveli”

From the moment this album begins (with cartoon gun noises that continue throughout), you can tell you’re listening to the “Abbey Road” of the 2010s. Kidding aside, this was, for a good chunk of 2010, my go-to “hype up” album. I could be asleep and if you played “Karma” I would jump out of bed and sprint 5 miles through brick walls. This is hip-hop very much of a certain era. The production is miles beyond the mumble-core, Soundcloud rap of the current moment, but the lyrical content is, um, not exactly on a level with Kendrick and other contemporaries.

98. Bright Eyes “The People’s Key”

This will probably remain the final Bright Eyes album. Released in 2011 it was such a departure from every previous Bright Eyes album, filled with electric guitars. In fact, if you had said this was a Desaparecidos album and not a Bright Eyes one, I wouldn’t have batted an eyelash. This is not the best Bright Eyes album, but for as long as Conor Oberst continues to make music, I will continue to listen to it and hold it in regard.

97. Foster The People “Torches

History will not be kind to a band like Foster the People. They will be the “Pumped Up Kicks” band forever and ever. For those who looked beyond that one song, you found a really interesting indie/dance-pop-rock piece of music. This is one of those albums that I’m less proud of myself for listening to. There’s nothing cool about a Foster the People album, but alas, I can’t deny that I enjoyed this one.

96. Cut Copy “Zonoscope”

This is from my electronic phase, which I never actually had. But this was probably the first guitar-less non-hip hop album that ever truly pulled me in. It opens with “Need You Now,” a beautiful, pulsing 6 minute love song that is all build throughout. Elsewhere, you’ll get a very 80’s new wave feel from “Blink and You’ll Miss a Revolution.”

95. Death Cab for Cutie “Codes and Keys”

Death Cab’s “Transatlanticism” is my favorite album of all time. No other piece of music has ever captured how I felt at a time in my life like that album and I often find myself swept back to that era of my life when I play it. “Codes and Keys” is not that album, but it is the end of an era, so to speak, for Death Cab for Cutie. This is the last album with Chris Walla fully on board and really, the last Death Cab album I found myself emotionally invested in. Also, I once tried to introduce Chris Walla to Madeline Albright. My life used to be so weird.

94. Adult Jazz “Gist Is”

This is surely the weirdest album on this list (I say surely because I’m looking at a list I made and writing these capsules in order, so maybe I’m forgetting something). Amanda once walked into a room where this was playing and said, “What is this?” It’s electronic, the vocals are at times buried beneath layers of drum, and the most lovely song on the album is called “Pigeon Skulls.”

93. Carter Tanton “Jettison The Valley

Tanton is a member of Lower Dens, but this solo effort, with contributions from Sharon Van Etten and Marissa Nadler, is his only appearance on this list either solo or in a band. This is simply a lovely album and a really great “side project.”

92. Telekinesis “12 Desperate Straight Lines”

A fun indie rock album. Isn’t that enough? “Country Lane” is my favorite track.

91. Destroyer “Ken”

Dan Bejar (of New Pornographers fame) is a wonderful weirdo who makes weird music under this moniker. He’ll make another appearance much higher on this list, but for now, here’s “Ken,” an electro-pop album from one of the most creative lyricists of this era. It’s not a perfect Destroyer album (again, be patient, we’ll get there), but it’s a nice breezy listen.

90. Arcade Fire “Everything Now”

Oh my! Look! It’s the Arcade Fire album that everybody is supposed to hate! And you know what, sure, it’s not “Funeral.” Nobody is making another “Funeral,” and that’s perfectly okay. This album is a showcase of the evolution of Arcade Fire. I think it’s a better record than its predecessor (“Reflektor,” which would have been number 102 on this list). I know that we’re all supposed to hate when bands who make classic albums don’t retire, but I’m here to tell you that it’s okay to listen to the new stuff. Oh, and we’ll be talking about Arcade Fire again, but you’ll have to wait a long while for that.

89. Allison Crutchfield “Tourist in This Town”

This is Crutchfield’s first (and to date, only) solo LP and it’s a solid effort with a handful of truly excellent pop-tinged rock songs that dominated my early 2017. I also saw her recently in Silver Lake, but I didn’t bother her, even though I’m sure she’d be stoked to make this list.

88. Peter, Bjorn, and John “Gimme Some”

These are the guys who made that whistling song that you remember from last decade. That album was really good and I’m here to report that they continue to make music. I like some of it, like this album from 2011. The thing I’ve always really liked about PBJ is their vocal harmonies. And, much like the whistling song that you remember, they’re damn good at writing hooky earworms.

87. Into It. Over It. “Intersections”

This was the first time that music critics told me I was cool for liking emo music. Previously, I was very uncool. But now…

86. Lykke Li “Wounded Rhymes”

Two Swedish artists in the last three selections. Sweden is taking over. Lykke Li makes very, very sad music, often over pulsing drums. Her voice is beautiful, I think most so on this album. One of the songs is called “Sadness is a Blessing.” She’s upfront with what you’re getting.

85. Adult Mom “Soft Spots”

Such a lovely album, albeit a very short one. The music is jangly, evoking a 1990s indie rock sound. The lyrics often tell highly specific, first-person stories, like on the gorgeous “J Station.” I happened to hear that song on an indie radio station somewhere in North Carolina, further validating my belief that it’s a good idea to drive long distances to see minor league baseball.

84. Whitney “Light Upon the Lake”

Plucked straight out of 1965, this is a truly beautiful album, full of waltzy guitar lines. The most striking thing to me the first time I listened to this album was how the vocals were placed out in front of the guitars and drums and horns, which felt so innovative for an album that was actually released in 2016.

83. The Hotelier “Goodness”

The cover of this album is a group of elderly naked people standing in a meadow. There are three comically silly interludes that were clearly not meant to be silly. In between all of that though are such perfectly produced, emotional (“emo” for short) songs about life and death, two of my favorite subjects. If not for the interludes, I’d probably be writing this much, much later in the process. “Sun” is my favorite song on the album. Listen to that if you want an idea of what to expect.

82. Kendrick Lamar “To Pimp a Butterfly”

I feel like I’m committing some kind of act of sacrilege putting a Kendrick Lamar album this low. But here’s the thing about “To Pimp a Butterfly:” it’s a great album, so perfectly of the moment that it was released, but it’s also very, very long to the point of feeling bloated at times. If you’re offended, “DAMN” is much higher.

81. The Men “Open Your Heart”

You like blues rock? Cool. Punk? Gotcha. Hardcore? Yup. Country? Kind of (there is a song called “Country Song”). My reaction to my first listen to this album was something along the lines of “What the hell did I just listen to?” You can’t really pin down The Men, on any album. This is their best according to me. There’s beauty here and ugliness and when it’s over, you’ll likely have the same reaction I did 7 years ago.

80. The National “I Am Easy To Find”

I had a hard time trying to decide what to do with albums from 2019. I didn’t want to over-rank any of them, but I also didn’t want to under-rank. It’s hard comparing the importance of something a few months old versus something that you’ve had in your life for 8 or 9 years. Anyway, here’s the first album from 2019. This feels like an under-rank, in the pre-emptive sense. Nearly every track on this album features Matt Berninger accompanied by a different female vocalist, making for the most unique National album to date. The accompanying short film is gut-wrenching, as one would expect a short film set to The National’s music to be. I have a feeling that if I were to re-rank these albums in five years, this album would be much higher than 80.

79. Generationals “Heza”

Generationals released four albums this decade and truth be told, each had their moment for me. In fact, I may have overplayed each Generationals album to some extent. So none of them had a ton of lasting power, save for “Heza.” This is Generationals at their “toe-tappiest” and, for me, few artists I listened to throughout this decade wrote more infectious songs.

78. Delta Spirit “History From Below”

Come, gather round and listen to an album that begins with a song called “9/11.” Delta Spirit would go on to release a handful of other albums this decade, but only this one left a lasting impact on me. And there’s a certain warmth I feel when I hear “Golden State,” especially now as a resident of that place.

77. Tennis “Cape Dory”

The story behind this album is a little hokey (married couple sails and writes an album). There’s also a strong parallel for me between Tennis and Delta Spirit. Each made a number of albums during this decade, but only had one that had an impact on my listening. This is a really pretty album with a low-fi, 1960s Laurel Canyon vibe. It had been a few years since I went back and re-listened to this (until I undertook this project) and I’m glad I got to come back to it.

76. Haim “Something to Tell You”

The second album from the sisters Haim was bigger sounding, though for me, not necessarily better. That said, you’d be hard pressed to find a band more skilled at making incredibly catchy, harmony-filled music than Haim.

75. Pinegrove “Cardinal”

It’s emo! But it’s a little country!

74. The New Pornographers “Together”

This is the New Pornographers at their best this decade. AC Newman, Neko Case, and Dan Bejar each get their moments to shine and each do.

73. Into It. Over It. “Standards”

I made the comment on the other Into It. Over It. album on this list that emo became cool again this decade. Amanda very astutely said recently it’s because the people who were told it wasn’t cool 15 years ago are now the tastemakers. I think she’s right. Anyway, this is a really lovely record. Evan Thomas Weiss (the man behind the clunky moniker) knows his way around hooks and bouncy melodies.

72. Houndmouth “Little Neon Limelight”
71. Lord Huron “Strange Trails”

For whatever reason, in 2015, I got really into pop rock and thus, these two bands landed at #3 and #2 on my year-end album list. I couldn’t tell you which one was which. It doesn’t matter. Much like Foster the People, I’m a little ashamed that each of these records are on here, but, again, I cannot deny that they more than had their moments. The Lord Huron record is very big and melodramatic, but also undeniably well-produced and full of soaring choruses . Houndmouth had a song in a car commercial that was a very good pop song.

70. Langhorne Slim “The Way We Move”

Speaking of car commercials, you’ve heard plenty of Langhorne Slim songs if you’ve ever watched TV. He’s at his best when he’s playing a good old-fashioned stomper and there are plenty of those on “The Way We Move.” And I’ll never not love an album that ends with a person screaming “And I’m not dead anymore.”

69. Waxahatchee “Cerulean Salt”

Katie Crutchfield will make two more appearances on this list. I think she’s one of the best songwriters in music today.

68. Chvrches “Every Open Eye”

There was no more vexing band in the 2010s for me than Chvrches. They should have been my favorite band of the decade. Scottish band, fronted by a dynamic woman making expertly produced, big, electronic-leaning rock songs. And yet, no Chvrches album has ever truly been perfect. This feels unfair (to criticize a band for making two appearances on this dumb list), but I’ve always wanted more from Chvrches records. When you want one more big, anthemic song, Lauren Mayberry hands the microphone off to the guy who warbles his way through some dreadful song. It’s a testament to her strength as the leader of the band and the way that she commands the vocals that their records are as good as they are. And they are definitely good, despite my negativity.

67. Bon Iver “Bon Iver”

There was a point at which, probably after the first listen, I assumed this would be my album of the decade. It did not, alas, have that kind of staying power. This is Justin Vernon’s most accessible record as Bon Iver (Big Red Machine, his side project with The Nationals’ Aaron Dessner, is slightly more accessible and also missed the cut by a hair). This album wraps itself around the listener and takes them to another place, which seems like maybe too on the nose of a statement to make about an album whose song titles are almost all physical places. Regardless, this is my favorite Justin Vernon record.

66. The War on Drugs “A Deeper Understanding

A lot of bands in the 2010s tried to do Bruce Springsteen, but nobody did it as well as The War on Drugs. This is the weakest album of their catalog, for me, which I think says a lot about how highly I hold this band.

65. Best Coast “Fade Away”

Only one EP made this list of my 100 favorite albums and it’s this one. Bethany Cosentino’s lyrics often bring a slight cringe to my face with predictable rhyming patterns dotting every song. “It was bad it made me sad,” stuff. Those moments are few and far between here. It’s Cosentino’s best written collection of songs by quite the distance.

64. Car Seat Headrest “Twin Fantasy”

This is a very well done re-imagining of a previous Car Seat Headrest release. Will Toledo’s songs are raw and direct. There’s nary a metaphor or illusion in his songs. They play like first person re-tellings of very specific moments and conversations from his life. Listening to a Car Seat Headrest album is like listening to a person’s therapy sessions. But with guitars.

63. Saintseneca “Such Things”

One of my favorite bands to come out of this decade. And one of the best live performers I saw during it. There’s another entry from them to come.

62. Jenny Lewis “The Voyager”

“The Voyager” is a sad album that sounds like a happy album if you’re not thinking too hard. It was also produced by human scumbag Ryan Adams, but lets not hold that against Jenny Lewis. Truth be told, some of these capsules are easy to write and others aren’t and this is the hardest one yet. I can’t quite pin down what it is that I like about this album, as I’m honestly not much of a Lewis fan. Maybe I already summed it up with that first sentence…

61. Yo La Tengo “Fade”

Maybe there’s a song from this decade that I love more than “OHM.” Maybe. I talked a bit ago about Bon Iver’s most approachable album. For me, this is Yo La Tengo’s most approachable. It sounds effortless and ethereal. And, man, that opener gets me every single time.

60. Charly Bliss “Young Enough”

Our second appearance of a 2019 album. Put me in the small camp of people who did not love their debut album. Put me in whatever size camp of people who absolutely love “Young Enough.” It took a few listens for me to buy into the layers of whatever (see, technical wizard I am) are all over Eva Hendricks’ voice. The album is full of dark lyrics (opener “Blown to Bits” is about a nuclear holocaust) over pitch-perfect pop melodies. It’s a wonderful sophomore album that portends the potential for the next album to make it even higher on my Albums of the 2020s list.

59. Cults “Cults”

Cults were destined to be my favorite band after this, their debut album release. Alas, as with Chvrches, that did not happen. Later releases fell kind of flat. But this debut was one of the best, most exciting surprises of the decade for me. The album cover, featuring both band members mid-rock out, is me every time I hear “Oh My God.”

58. Real Estate “Days”

Real Estate make really mellow, laid back, approachable indie rock. When I want to turn the lights out, light a candle, and listen to some music alone, Real Estate is my usual go-to. The music is airy. They lyrics are reflective and sad. If you’re noticing a pattern in my listening, good on you. Another Real Estate album will come later.

57. John K. Samson “Winter Wheat”

Samson is a wonderful storyteller with a very unique voice. These are slow-paced, narrative-driven songs. “17th Street Treatment Center” is the most honest depiction of receiving drug or alcohol treatment that I could possibly imagine. “Most of us are probably not getting better, but not getting better together” is the saddest lyric of celebration that I can think of from this decade.

56. The War on Drugs “Lost In The Dream”

Coming off of “Slave Ambient” (read more about it much, much later in this list), this sounded like a different band. The lyrical approach was similar, but from the opening of the album, if you were at all familiar with their previous approach, you could tell this was going to be the breakout album. It’s bigger. It’s longer. And it’s louder. This is not always with great results. This is, after all, an hour long, 10 track album. This is my lowest ranked “Album of the Year” from this decade. There’s no denying that, musically, this had all the potential to be a top five album, but I had trouble connecting to it long-term.

55. Springtime Carnivore “Springtime Carnivore”

Gosh, I love Greta Morgan’s voice. Her work with Gold Motel didn’t necessarily highlight it, but in this, her solo project, her vocal abilities really shine through. She writes and sings such beautiful sad songs. The sad and spare vocal/keyboard combo on “Find A New Game” is a decade musical highlight for me.

54. Waxahatchee “Ivy Tripp”

There’s measurable growth on this album from the relatively spare “Cerulean Salt.” The guitars are louder and more distorted, but the star of the show is Katie Crutchfield’s songwriting. I’ll have one other opportunity to praise that on this list.

53. Blink 182 “Neighborhoods”

Critics hated it. The band hated it and broke up (again) because of it. I found and find myself on an island when it comes to this album, because I love it. The story goes: Blink breaks up, Travis Barker nearly dies, they reunite for a tour and decide to make an album, but they are never in the studio as a threesome to record it, and nobody enjoyed the process. Except for me. There’s a lot of Angeles and Airwaves influence on this album and it’s very much a “Tom” record. These are Blink 182’s fullest, richest songs. There’s nostalgia and heartbreak, and love, and no songs about having sex with dogs or grandmas. Nothing that Blink 182 has released without Tom (and I’m including Mark and Travis’ +44 side project) carries as much heft as this album. Also, Travis Barker is the best drummer in the last 30+ years of popular music. Have I lost you yet?

52. The World Is A Beautiful Place And I Am No Longer Afraid To Die “Harmlessness”

As the name probably gives away, this is an emo band that writes very serious songs. Or maybe, Very Serious Songs. Either way, this is probably the heaviest album you’ll find on this list, in terms of music, which really, just says that I don’t listen to a lot of “heavy” music. Rarely do the songs follow a normal verse, chorus, verse, chorus, chorus, bridge, chorus structure. They just happen. The whole thing feels very organic, even for a band with such a preposterously long and dramatic name.

51. The Wonder Years “Suburbia I’ve Given You All and Now I’m Nothing”

At some point in the year 2012 or early 2013, I discovered that there was a growing scene of new emo and pop-punk bands that were making the genres “cool.” This was my first dive into that scene (because, I mean, that album title, obviously) and holy shit what a dive it was. This was my gateway drug. “Came Out Swinging” is the natural progression from the music I was listening to and flailing my body around to 10 years earlier, but the lyrics were smarter and didn’t treat female antagonists as subhuman. These are songs about escaping from something. In that way, it’s almost closer to Springsteen than Silverstein.

50. Lorde “Pure Heroine”

I was on my solo cross country road trip in 2013 the first time I listened to Lorde. I hated it. Months later, I gave it a second chance and I saw the error of my ways. Lorde is a marvel. She was the only teenager making music that was truly worth listening to no matter your age. Her songs are timeless. Yes, she’s writing from the perspective of a teenager, but we’ve all been there. We’ve all wanted to fit in. We’ve all resigned ourselves to the fact that we aren’t going to be rich and famous. We’ve all been young and in love. She captures that age better than any artist I’ve ever heard. This is definitely not her only entry here.

49. Rostam “Half-Light”

At the end of the day, there are probably no more than 3 people beyond Rostam Batmanglij whose music has had more of an effect on me in my adult life. His work with Vampire Weekend drove the success of the band on their first three albums. His work with Hamilton Leithauser will come up later. And then there’s his production with everyone from Tokyo Police Club to Haim to Cass McCombs to Charli XCX. Few artist have been more prolific in the background than Rostam was this decade. This album is his only solo effort to date and it sounds very much like what you’d want in a Rostam album. His vocals are actually quite impressive and his lyrics of bittersweet longing are touching. The choir layered beneath his vocals on “EOS” is a favorite of mine.

48. Frank Ocean “Blonde”

Genres don’t matter with Frank Ocean. He’s not a traditional R&B singer. He’s definitely not exclusively a rapper. Frankly, he’s probably an indie singer-songwriter, but that feels far too dismissive of his work. “Blonde” is a truly incredible album. His ballads (“White Ferrari” comes to mind) are some of the best of that genre that I heard this decade. Each Frank album is a moving experience.

47. The Districts “Popular Manipulations”

For most people, this is/was probably a fairly pedestrian indie rock album. I am (regrettably perhaps) not most people. “If Before I Wake” is on my top 10 list of favorite songs from this decade, to say nothing of the rest of the album. The lyrics are a little obtuse at times, but the hooks are there.

46. Japandroids “Celebration Rock”

Few records from this decade get off on a more invigorating note(s) than this album with “The Nights of Wine and Roses” (sidenote: I love when songs have long, seemingly random titles that are actually included in the lyrics). This, Japandroids’ second album, bridges a sort of gap between the loud, messiness of “Post-Nothing” and the refined sound of “Near to the Wild Heart of Life.” There’s still lots of guitar and lots of anthems for the drunk, hopeless, and emotionally vulnerable.

45. Chvrches “The Bones Of What You Believe”

I won’t be mean to the boring guy in Chrvches again. I’m sure he’s a very nice person. The synths are louder and more frenetic here than on “Every Open Eye.” And the lyrics are more pointed and direct. In all, it’s just a better record and one that I connected with more.

44. Slaughter Beach, Dog “Birdie”

From the ashes of Modern Baseball came Slaughter Beach, Dog. Album opener “Phoenix” is a beautiful narrative about longing. The album is full of down-on-their luck characters, but not in the Bruce Springsteen factory worker way. Everyone is kind of a loser and frontman Jake Ewald does a great job making you feel invested in those losers.

43. The Front Bottoms “Going Grey”

The Front Bottoms are the standard-bearers of the modern folk-punk movement. “Going Grey,” their most recent album, though, adds an electronic element and just an albeit bigger sound to their thing. And I really appreciate that thing.

42. The Walkmen “Heaven”

This is the final album from a band that started out making post-punk in the style of Interpol. While that band has continued making the same album over and over again, The Walkmen refined their sound over a decade and ended with this clean cut piece of straight-ahead rock, that features Hamilton Leithauser’s voice prominently. And that is a very good thing.

41. Real Estate “Atlas”

We’re running through a streak of decidedly “white guy rock,” approaching its apex with “Atlas.” The songs here are a little more amped-up than on “Days,” which isn’t really saying a whole lot. Like its predecessor, this is an album you want to listen to on a winter night. “How Might I Live” is also the worst wedding song ever/makes me wish we had had a wedding so that I could have forced the DJ to play it.

40. Vampire Weekend “Father of the Bride”

…and we have reached the apex. Only one other artist or band has 3 albums in the top 40 of this list. Draw any conclusion you’d like from that. Each Vampire Weekend album in the discography is different. “Father of the Bride” is the most different, evoking an oft-cited Grateful Dead feel. I was concerned that Rostam’s departure would affect Vampire Weekend and it did, just not in a bad way. This is a long album that never feels long. It’s also an album that, despite its newness, has a signature listening moment (a fast, open-sunroof tear through the backroads of a northwest Arkansas night).

39. Frank Ocean “Channel Orange”

The only album on this list that features a John Mayer contribution. “Channel Orange” is a little more scatter-shot than “Blonde” but go ahead and try to find a clunker on here. Even the nearly 10 minute long “Pyramids” is worth every moment (and I’ll add, I was shocked when doing this exercise to discover that the song is nearly 10 minutes long. I would have guessed 5.).

38. Waxahatchee “Out in the Storm”

When it comes to the next decade, there is probably no other artist whose music I’m more excited to hear than Katie Crutchfield. Her growth from album to album is a marvel. This, her most recent release, is her strongest and it announces itself as being different from “Ivy Tripp” right off the bat with the loud, rocking, refined “”Never Been Wrong.” She’s also such an impressive singer that if she put out an album of her reading a James Patterson novel (and I didn’t have the 3 album limit), it would have made the top 100 too.

37. The National “Trouble Will Find Me”

This year’s “I Am Easy To Find” is, on the spectrum of National albums, diametrically opposed to “Trouble Will Find Me.” Find a light moment here and you’re our generation’s most daring explorer. This is, even for this band, an especially heavy and dark album. And if you’re wondering why an album I described as “heavy and dark” is ranked so high, you’ve just stumbled upon a stranger’s long-ass blog post. The vocals on “Slipped” get me every time.

36. Sylvan Esso “What Now”

This feels like a good time to talk about 2017. 16 albums from that year (including this one) make it on this list, with still 4 more to come. But on to “What Now” which deserves as much space as my tiring mind can allow. If you don’t like dance music, this isn’t for you. If you don’t like sometimes sad dance music, this isn’t for you. If you don’t like heavily electronic music, this is not for you. If you don’t like beautiful vocals, this isn’t for you and also, seek help immediately. When this album hits what would probably be side B in a different era (“Song”) I enter this zone where all I want to do is dance. I once spent a fairly quiet morning in the Senate listening to this album on my committee hearing rounds and the combination of the bleakness of the Capitol and the beauty in Amelia Meath’s voice made for such a significant juxtaposition. That listen has especially stuck with me. I’d also note here that we’ve entered a phase were ranking these albums got much harder as basically everything from here to the end holds a significant amount of importance to me.

35. Paramore “Paramore”

You can scoff all you want. This is a really great rock album. Paramore’s sound has refined and Hayley Williams’ star has continued to rise, deservedly so, but this is the kind of rock album that a lot of pop-punk bands try (poorly) to write. “Fast In My Car” is a stomper of a first track. “Proof” is my favorite love song of the decade and “Be Alone” isn’t far behind. Williams is an incredible vocalist and for anybody who wrote them off 11 years ago, you’re missing out.

34.Edward Sharpe and the Magnetic Zeroes “Here”

This was my 2012 Album of the Year and yet no song from it made my end of year “Best Of” playlist. This is an easy band to hate, even if “Home” (from their previous release) is a catchy ass song. You’ve got the whole cult leader frontman thing. And the frontman was in the band Ima Robot. And they make folksy gospel music. This is absolutely the kind of thing I would hate on its surface. And yet, this album was so damn different from anything else I listened to in 2012 or any year, hence no song making that playlist. In 2013, my grandfather suffered an aneurysm and one day, on the hour-long drive back from the rehab hospital with my Nana, I was trying to find an album that would be enjoyable for both of us to listen to. The only one I could think of was this one. And she liked it. And I’ll always remember that drive when I listen to “Here.” Personal things like that should matter with art. If someone tells you otherwise, they’re probably a joyless person.

33. LCD Soundsystem “American Dream”

The final album from LCD Soundsystem is their most directly angry. There are very pointed songs about modern American life here with “call the police” being the headliner. There are also some of the band’s most lovely sonic elements scattered throughout. Album closer (and band closer, perhaps) “black screen” is how any of us should hope to go out.

32. Kendrick Lamar “DAMN”

Speaking of albums that were very much of their moment, I have no idea how much this album spoke for marginalized peoples living in the U.S. under the Trump regime, because, you know, I’m not one of them. But the experiences that Kendrick writes about here feel ripped from the sad state of modern American life. And the album itself is his tightest, most cohesive long-form work in his career. We do the “voice of a generation” thing, well, every generation. I’m too old to give this generation their voice, but I will say, it it’s not Kendrick, they’re doing it wrong. And if it’s Post Malone, we’re all in trouble.

31. Amen Dunes “Freedom”

2018’s Album of the Year. In a down year for music (for me), this album shone brightly. The lyrics are sometimes barely decipherable and when you can manage to make out what Damon McMahon is saying, you’re on your own when it comes to interpretation. “Freedom” works very well as a whole album. It evokes a feeling. For me, that feeling is relaxation. For you, maybe it’s complete and utter fear. Again, it’s all up to your interpretation.

30. Against Me! “Transgender Dysphoria Blues”

I’ve written a little bit in this lot of writing about shared experiences and how in many cases, my existence as a non-marginalized person makes it harder for me to truly connect with the music I’m listening to. Enter “Transgender Dysphoria Blues.” In the latter stage of the previous decade, Against Me! was basically known for “selling out.” Of course, like most “sell outs” this meant that the music that they made was much better-sounding and allowed the band members to live more comfortable lives. Then in 2012, lead singer Tom Gabel announced in a Rolling Stone profile that he had been living life as a woman named Laura Jane Grace and was in the process of transitioning. Two years later, this album dropped. It was more raw than the band’s previous two major label releases. But it’s the lyrics that really mattered. Grace sings so directly about her transition, how she perceives her public perception, and how she perceives herself. I don’t know that any artist released a more personal piece of music this decade. And certainly no artist did it in a way that was so direct. It’s hard to listen to this album and not hear Grace’s struggles and joys.

29. Pusha T “Daytona”

The best thing that Kanye West has done in the last few years was produce this album. Album opener “If You Know, You Know” was my most listened to track in 2018 AND 2019. I often say that I don’t necessarily know what “well-produced” music sounds like. But if I had to guess, it’s this. Pusha raps about Pusha things: cocaine (selling it), being very important, being better than Drake, etc. Unlike the previous album on this list, where the lyrics are the focal point, it’s the music here. This is a very tight 21 minute, 7 track musical masterclass. Oh, and “Infared” killed Drake. If you see someone else performing as Drake now, it’s kind of an Ultimate Warrior type thing.

28. Destroyer “Kaputt”

What a wonderfully weird, completely unrelated group of three albums we have here from 30-28. This is the perfect Destroyer album that I mentioned way back at entry number 91. It’s a smooth jazz record, laden with horns. And there’s some disco beats (“Savage Night at the Opera”) thrown in. And some synths too. Oh, and the lyrics are completely bonkers. “Step out of your toga and into the fog. You are a prince on the ocean. In a pinch in the sky. In your eye.” Like I said, this is the perfect Destroyer album.

27. Car Seat Headrest “Teens of Denial”

We’ve entered a point in this process where a lot of artists are going to repeat. In fact, one will have three albums between 10 and 21. This is Car Seat Headrest’s second entry, their breakthrough album, and 2016’s “Album of the Year.” It’s cleaner than previous Car Seat Headrest releases. One of the things I really like about Will Toledo is that his songs take their time. 7 of the 12 tracks here clock in over 5 minutes (one at 11 1/2 minutes). And yet, there’s not much here that you could call “boring” or “down time.” Each guitar solo or extended bridge feels thoroughly necessary. And each word, even the seemingly superfluous where he’s talking directly to his antagonist(s), carries heft.

26. Japandroids “Near to the Wild Heart of Life”

As I look at this very long list, written out over pages of notebook paper, I see a lot of “rock” records. That is to say, there are guitars and drums and riffs. When the decade ends in a few days, few artists will be able to say they wrote better rock records than Japandroids. Here, the lyrics are a little more mature (overlooking that “I used to be good, but now I’m bad” one from the opening track) and the sound a little more polished, all without losing any of the urgency or energy of their previous two releases.

25. Rick Ross “Teflon Don”

Mainstream rap albums tend to lean towards the bloated and overwrought, filled with intros, interludes, and many bad ideas that a good producer would have left behind (See: every single Drake album). “Teflon Don” is the literal opposite. It’s a tight 49 minutes. Not an interlude in sight. Just banger after banger, with a guest list that reads like a hall of fame entry: Jay Z, Diddy, TI, Jadakiss, Kanye, Gucci Mane, even Erykah Badu makes an appearance. On the title track, Ross raps, “My (community of friends) never sing, if I need ’em, I go to Ne-Yo” and then Ne-Yo pops up later in the album. Yes, his raps are comically boastful. And yes, he used to be a corrections officer. If authenticity means that much to you, I’m so sorry that you can’t sit back and enjoy this giant-sounding masterpiece in audacity.

24. Maggie Rogers “Heard It In a Past Life”

Catch artists 26-24 on tour this summer! As with each of the 2019 albums on this list, time will tell whether I overshot (or undershot). My introduction to Maggie Rogers was her performance on SNL. My normal course of action with the SNL musical guest is to save eight minutes of my life. But I was curious as to why this person I’d never heard before was performing on this show I don’t even enjoy watching anymore. I heard one second and I didn’t skip either performance. I’m familiar with the Pharrell story now, and it’s remarkable to watch, not so much for his response to “Alaska” but as compared to his reaction to the other stuff he was hearing. I played this album over and over and over again this year. Rogers’ ability to jump through genres is remarkable and a testament to her incredible voice. She’s also a really good songwriter, which, you know, only adds to the appeal.

23. Gold Motel “Summer House”

You know exactly what you’re getting from the moment you hit “play” on “Summer House.” This is jangly, sweet, 60’s inspired California surf rock for the modern world. This album is almost 10 years old and continues to feel so fresh every time I listen to it. And, honestly, listening in California makes it even better.

22. LCD Soundsystem “This is Happening”

I joked earlier about having an “electronic” phase, but maybe it was just an LCD Soundsystem phase. Though phases are supposed to end, right? James Murphy is as talented of a lyricist as you’ll find on this list and at times downright funny. At about 3 minutes in, this album explodes in an electronic melange of noise. Murphy is also a tender songwriter, and album closer “Home” highlights that wonderfully. Like Gold Motel, this is a 2010 album that never feels old.

21. Kevin Morby “Singing Saw”

Ah, entry number one of three for Kevin Morby. Is three too many? No, it’s my list and Morby’s music was so important to the last half of this decade for me. His lyrics are direct, bordering on simple. His music is accessible, mostly acoustic guitars and drums and maybe a mandolin or banjo here and there. And it’s all tinged with the right amount of melancholy. The last two tracks on “Singing Saw” are a couple of movers. “Black Flowers” uses dying flowers as a metaphor for a relationship gone wrong and “Water” sees Morby, singing in the first person, dragging himself back to life. But it doesn’t feel that melodramatic. It feels genuine. And I like that.

20. Saintseneca “Dark Arc”

We have reached the top 20. If you’re still reading, you’re either a good friend or a very interesting stranger. You know how I’ve written about accessible lyrics and voices? Yeah, Saintseneca doesn’t do that. These are spiritual songs sung in such a way that I wouldn’t necessarily recommend this band to everybody I know. There’s not a lot of conventionality here. Big songs become quiet. Quiet songs become big. Saintseneca is one of the most interesting bands of this decade. And this is their best record.

19. Kanye West “My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy”

Kanye West is a little-known rapper and producer from Chicago, who now lives in Los Angeles County with his wife and children. He released this modest album in 2010, clocking in at a mere 68 minutes and featuring other underground rappers, such as Jay-Z. The primary theme of the album is that Kanye West is better than you and everybody that you know or love. Little has been heard of Mr. West since the release of this album.

18. Kevin Morby “Oh My God”

In early 2019, my grandmother died. Grandmothers typically do that. My grandmother’s death was the lowest moment of my life and I miss her every single day. Kevin Morby, a musical artist I like, released this concept album about death, the afterlife, goodness, and spirituality two months later. He did not write this album about my grandmother. That would have been weird. But music has its way of forcing us to make connections between what we’re hearing and our own lives. I listened to this album on a flight home this year and thought a lot about my Nana. So when I hear the lyric ‘O Behold this hole in my heart,” I’m regularly moved to tears. And if this whole exercise is about making a connection with the music, well, mission accomplished.

17. The Gaslight Anthem “American Slang”

Fair to say this album doesn’t carry the same emotional weight…This is a great rock album by a really good rock band. Imagine someone gave 1980s Springsteen only two electric guitars, a bass guitar, and drums and said, “you have to keep the guitars plugged in.” That’s this.

16. Fleet Foxes “Helplessness Blues”

Robin Pecknold’s ability to write absolutely beautiful orchestrations might only be outmatched by his incredible voice. There is so much happening in nearly every song on this album that repeated listens are frequently rewarded. Little notes you never heard before. An instrument buried beneath others that jumps out at you six years later. Sometimes I honestly forget how much I love this album and whenever I listen, I’m instantly reminded.

15. Haim “Days Are Gone”

This album got me through the more dreadful and lonely parts of my 2013 solo cross country road trip. And it’s a good thing I was solo, because nobody should have to listen to me try to sing Haim songs. On those days where I felt trapped, I would simply roll the windows down and blast “Days Are Gone.” Haim’s harmonies are on full display here. The sisters’ different singing styles blend so wonderfully. Some of the criticism of Haim is that they resemble Fleetwood Mac in sound, which is like trying to insult me by saying I look like Daniel Day-Lewis. Yeah, I kind of do and that’s perfectly okay.

14. Hamilton + Rostam “I Had A Dream That You Were Mine”

Hamilton Leithauser’s voice, with its soaring croon, is my favorite male singing voice. Rostam Batmanglij’s production and instrumentation is some of my favorite, as evidenced by his presence on this list once as a solo artist, once as part of a duo, and thrice as a member of Vampire Weekend. This is one of those albums that takes its time. It’s not over-long, but no song feels rushed. It’s clear that you’re listening to two seasoned veterans making a grown-up music album. And, for Leithauser, it sounds like the most fun he’s had making a record in a long time.

13. Beach Slang “The Things We Do To Find People Who Feel Like Us”

Depending on where you fall, you either find Beach Slang to be inauthentic and thus a pointless listen (Hi Amanda!) or you buy into lead singer James Alex’s heart-bleeding-all-over-sleeve message and you find Beach Slang to be a thrilling, emotional defibrillator of a rock band. I’m clearly in the latter camp. This was the runaway 2015 Album of the Year. If you enjoy The Replacements, you’ll, um, see some similarities here. Like, a lot. This is not transcendent music trying to be something it’s not. It’s straight forward emotional, punk rock.

12. Sky Ferreria “Night Time, My Time”

Oh, Sky. It’s been almost six years since she released this album and in the interim, she has released exactly one song. And yet, there was no hesitation on my part to include her. At no point in the last six years have I not perused an “upcoming albums” list looking for her name. That’s how good this album is. There’s a direct line between “Night Time, My Time” and mid-1980s, synth-heavy pop-rock music. Ferreria is a skilled songwriter and singer, with an obvious ear for hooks. This album is littered with them. Time will tell if the next one, whenever that is, resembles it. But until it’s released, I’ll happily keep replaying “Night Time…”

11. Vampire Weekend “Modern Vampires of the City”

When Vampire Weekend released “Modern Vampires…” it signaled the end of that first era of Vampire Weekend. They threw out the boat shoes and the afro-beats, and the bookwormy lyrics that spilled over, sometimes obnoxiously, on their debut album and showed up on “Contra” (more on “Contra” to come). Here is Ezra Koennig at his most open and direct. “Hannah Hunt” is a lovely, somber first-person account of a break-up during a road trip, if you believe that the singer was actually road-tripping from the physical cities of Providence and Phoenix and not the idea of providence and the representation of phoenix. And yes, this was Ezra at *his* most direct.

10. Kevin Morby “City Music”

Morby says he wrote this album from the perspective of an old woman in a high-rise apartment looking down on the city living beneath her (paraphrase). Morby’s music is not exactly brimming with fist-pounding anthems, but by comparison to that catalog, “City Music” is slow, quiet, and full of reflection. And whether you listen to it from the perspective of a lonely old person or through your own lens, or choose to listen to the first-person lyrics as coming from Morby, about Morby, you’re bound to be moved by the quiet sadness in this album.

9. Youth Lagoon “The Year of Hibernation”

2011’s “Album of the Year” comes from a person from Idaho making reverb-filled electronic songs of deep sadness and desire, presumably in a bedroom or cave. There is so much space around each of the songs on “The Year of Hibernation.” This is not a masterpiece of music production and it’s not supposed to be. Some of the drum tracks sound like they are taken from a Casio keyboard. None of these remarks should be read as flippant. I love this record. I love Trevor Powers’ vulnerability. This is a dream pop album just brimming with moments of soaring emotion. It’s not for everyone. But it’s absolutely for me.

8. The War on Drugs “Slave Ambient”

Not every album on this list has a signature listening moment, and that’s okay. This album does. Driving through the barren state highways in central New Mexico, alongside a freight train, on a sunny April day in 2012. This is, compared to the next two albums in the War on Drugs discography, brief and sparse. It is, of course, neither of those things. But it certainly feels different than those two albums, calling to a more dense Dire Straits, as opposed to the Springsteen of “Lost in the Dream” and “A Deeper Understanding.” Few bands that I listened to this decade did as well with instrumental songs as The War on Drugs. “Original Slave” is a perfect and unexpected bridge between “Baby Missiles” and “Black Water Falls” Elsewhere “Your Love Is Calling My Name” starts with frantic energy and somehow sustains that for over six minutes. This is an album that demands to be listened to loud and I adhere to that demand strictly.

7. The National “High Violet”

I’ve said a lot of words about The National previously. They make beautiful, often very sad, music. The songs on “High Violet” are bigger than their works from the decade prior and the back half of this album (Side B if you will) is a tour de force (not to shortchange Side A). The keys on “Bloodbuzz Ohio” might be buried a bit beneath the vocals and drums and horns, but without them, it’s a different song. The National are very clearly a band that knows how to make songs, which isn’t always a given. “England,” for what it’s worth, is my favorite National song.

6. Modern Baseball “Holy Ghost”

This is, for my money, the best album of this renaissance of pop-punk and emo and, sadly, the last Modern Baseball album. Broken up into two halves, each led by a different singer, this feels like a double album despite its modest 27 minute length. This isn’t a band trying to transcend a sound or anything. More like a band perfecting that sound. I have never heard a more perfect pop-punk album. Songs about the road? Check. Songs about diagnosed mental disorders? Check. Songs about heartbreak? Check. Sing-along choruses? You bet. It hits every note I could possibly want in its 27 minutes.

5. The Walkmen “Lisbon”

You’ve read the words “beautiful” and “music” so many times on this list, but this will be the last time, I promise. Because this is the most beautiful album on this list. I care very much about the feelings that albums evoke or the settings they transport you to. Ironic it is then that on an album titled “Lisbon” I place myself behind a fogging window on a winter night with nothing but candlelight illuminating the room. Maybe it’s the guitar playing. Maybe it’s Hamilton Leithauser’s voice. It’s not all slow moving winter night songs, but it’s all that feeling. Few, if any, albums on this list put me into a better head space than this one.

4. Vampire Weekend “Contra”

Is “Run” a love song? I’ve always heard it as one. “Honey with you (oh oh oh) is the only honest way to go…” sounds so romantic to my ear. Something happens along the way on this record. When “Giving Up The Gun” shows up, we get the perfect confluence of what Vampire Weekend was and what Vampire Weekend would become. This is the oldest album on this list, having been released on January 11, 2010. It feels, at times, very much of its era. Three of the top four albums on this list were released in 2010. I guess that probably shows that I’m an old fuddy-duddy who only wants to hear the classics. For me, though, when I hear an album like “Contra” I hear a band that was making exciting music. “Contra” really is the best album that Paul Simon could have made.

3. Lorde “Melodrama”

9,000 or so words ago, I wrote about how much this list trended white and, especially, male. I wrote that because when I made this list, I realized that Lorde was the only female artist to crack the top 10. If you’re asking how that happened, you probably aren’t familiar with Lorde’s work. I touched upon this with the entry for “Pure Heroine,” but I marvel at the way Lorde writes music from the perspective of a (in this case) 20 something Kiwi woman that manages to connect with every audience. The vitriol that she feels for her ex on “Writer in the Dark” is the vitriol we’ve all felt when we become the jilted lover. She just writes about it better than anybody else. She’s essentially taken the journal of a teenager and for the last six years, allowed us all to read it. Questioning authority, falling in love, staying out late, regretting that, feeling alone. “Melodrama” is a timeless record. And if I’m ever to have a son or daughter, when they’ve reached the appropriate age, I’m excited to share this album with them.

2. Surfer Blood “Astro Coast”

Here we have the conundrum of separating art from artist. Rarely do I do that. Surfer Blood, or more aptly, this album, is the exception. A few years after the release of “Astro Coast,” lead singer John Paul Pitts was arrested and charged with domestic battery. Because it was 2012 and society collectively didn’t care much about women then, he kept making music and it mostly sucked, though that’s neither here nor there. At the time of his arrest, this was already one of my favorite albums. When I listen to this and when I rank it as my second favorite album of the decade, I am fully aware of the very awful things that he did to his girlfriend in 2012. “Astro Coast” is my second favorite album of the decade because I have separated the artist (asshole?) from the music he and his bandmates made in 2010.

As for the album, I fell in love on the first note and with the first lyric. I’ve often heard them compared to Weezer and I’ve never gotten that comparison. They’re Surfer Blood. Problematic lead singer and all. And for better or worse, I’ll take this album with me wherever life takes me.

1. Arcade Fire “The Suburbs”

This was my Album of the Deacde from the moment I finished listening to it for the first time on August 2, 2010. I’ve been thinking for a while now about what I’d write when I got to this album and how to describe how I feel about it. I could say “I love it” but I truly “love” at least 25 albums on this list. I could say that it speaks to its time, and it did, but tell me that “City With No Children” doesn’t also speak to this time, nine years later. I could say that “Sprawl II” is a really good song and that Regine Chassagne shines so brightly throughout this album in a way she hadn’t necessarily before. She’s really the star of “The Suburbs.” I could say that it’s an indie rock album that inexplicably and much to the surprise of Rosie O’Donnell, won the damn Album of the Year Grammy. I could say that it’s big. I could say that it’s emotional. I could say that it captures the feeling of being trapped in a soul-crushing existence better than any piece of art this century. I could say all of those things. And I just did. And I could say a lot more.

Quarterback Madness: 2019 Edition

Hello! It’s me, Lapsed NFL Fan. I’m just checking in to see how everybody is doing. Oh, and I wrote this excruciatingly long blog post that nobody will read. How has everybody been?

Six years have passed since my most recent installment of Quarterback Madness. In the previous 4 iterations, Aaron Rodgers came away the “fairest quarterback of them all.” 

A refresher: Every team has a starting quarterback. For some teams, this is only in the technical sense. For others, they have a franchise quarterback that they never want to replace. Either way, every team has to put some pulse under center (Motion to change this terminology to “six yards behind center”). The purpose of this exercise is to determine who I think is the ultimate NFL franchise quarterback right now. Put another way, if all of the quarterbacks were thrown into a pot and I was the lucky person who got first dibs on one to build my franchise around starting today, who would I scoop out of that pot. 

For a few of these teams, I’m guessing who they view as their “franchise quarterback” right now. Denver is the best example. They drafted Drew Lock in the 2nd round of the 2019 NFL draft, though he hasn’t taken a snap yet due to injury. They started the year with Joe Flacco as their starting quarterback, but he’s done for the year and Joe Flacco. And in the interim, they’ve basically selected fans from the crowd to go spend a day as the starting quarterback for the Denver Broncos. So basically, I’m guessing there. Quarterbacks are seeded within their conference, 1-16, based on their team’s record on Tuesday, November 27, 2019 when I started writing this.

Let’s get started:

AFC

1. Tom Brady (NE)  vs. 16: Andy Dalton (CIN)

When I set out to resurrect this old post, I thought, “Surely there’s no way that Tom Brady will advance beyond the first round.” Then I looked at the bracket and thought, “Welp…” Andy Dalton (or Ryan Finley) is just keeping a seat warm in Cincinnati for Joe Burrow or Tua or Justin Herbert or whatever person talent evaluators get blindly excited about *after* the college season is over. Meanwhile, Tom Brady is probably going to win the Super Bowl again despite not being able to throw anything resembling an accurate deep pass.

8. Jacoby Brissett (IND) vs. 9. Ryan Tannehill (TEN)

This is like when the NCAA selection committee puts two 19-12 Power-5 conference teams against each other in March. So who will it be? North Carolina State or Texas A&M?  Brissett is simply a game manager, thrust into a starting role because of Andrew Luck’s retirement. He’s completing 65% of his passes, which is good, but he’s thrown for less than 2,000 yards this season and he’s got a QBR of 49.8. Meanwhile, Tannehill was thrust into this role because Marcus Mariota busted as a starting quarterback. In 7 games, Tannehill is completing 72% of his passes and has already thrown for 1,400 yards (in 3 fewer games than Brissett). Neither is going to set the world on fire and neither is getting past Tom Brady, who is 42 years old, but I’ll take the NFL veteran Tannehill because ultimately, this doesn’t matter. 

5.  Patrick Mahomes (KC) vs. 12. Phillip Rivers (LAC)

The reigning NFL MVP, Mahomes, is currently second in the league in QBR and is averaging 312 yards passing per game. He has thrown 19 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions. Phillip Rivers is 37 years old and currently having his worst season as a pro, with a nearly 1:1 TD:INT ratio. So let’s move on…

  4. Deshaun Watson (HOU) vs. 13. Sam Darnold (NYJ)

Some day, Sam Darnold might be a good quarterback, capable of winning games on his own. On this specific day, he is averaging more than an interception per game and missed a few games this season with mononucleosis. Deshaun Watson, on the other hand, is a very good quarterback, completing nearly 70% of his passes, and limiting his turnovers despite playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. 

6.  Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) vs. 11. Nick Foles (JAC)

Roethlisberger hasn’t played since a Week 2 injury ended his season. Before that injury he was not very good. The players who have played in his absence are clearly not Pittsburgh’s future quarterbacks. So we’ll go with him here and have him lose in the first round to Nick Foles, who has barely played this season and when he has, hasn’t won a game. Feel the excitement! 

3. Josh Allen (BUF) vs. 14. Drew Lock (DEN)

Drew Lock has never taken an NFL snap and as I was a lapsed college football fan during his time in college, I have no earthly idea why he was a second round pick because I never heard anybody talk about him until it was time for the NFL Draft. Josh Allen is a bad quarterback. Sure, his Buffalo Bills are currently the third best team in the AFC, but that is entirely thanks to their very good defense. Allen has the third lowest completion percentage among qualified players at just over 60%. He’s averaging under 7 yards per completion, and his 44.8 QBR isn’t exactly upper echelon (it’s actually quite lower echelon). AND YET, he’s playing a guy who has literally never touched an NFL football in a game. So, congrats to Josh Allen.

7. Derek Carr (OAK)  vs. 10. Baker Mayfield (CLE)

For all of the hype around Baker Mayfield, much of it more known to me because I lived in Oklahoma for a year, he’s really not much better than his 2018 NFL draft brethren of Josh Allen and Sam Darnold. He’s thrown 13 picks to just 14 touchdowns, despite having arguably the most talented WR1/WR2 combo in football at his disposal.  Meanwhile, Derek Carr is completing over 70% of his passes and protecting the ball despite throwing to receivers you’ve literally never heard of unless you play fantasy football and aren’t particularly good at it. So Derek Carr it is.

2. Lamar Jackson (BAL) vs. 15. Josh Rosen (MIA)

There will be a time and place to praise Lamar Jackson’s greatness. This is not that space. That will come later. 

 

SECOND ROUND:

Tom Brady (1) vs. Ryan Tannehill (9)

I cannot rationalize Tom Brady losing here and it makes me ill. He’s clearly aged well past his prime, but he manages games better than anybody. And if you think I’m crazy, think of it this way: Neither of these guys is a long-term franchise quarterback. So let’s say you need to win the Super Bowl tomorrow. Which one are you starting and how long are you thinking about it before you choose Brady?

Patrick Mahomes (5) vs. Deshaun Watson (4)

Now this is a matchup. Mahomes is certainly a top 5 quarterback and statistically speaking, so is Watson. Mahomes is the clear and obvious winner here. There’s no rational argument for taking Deshaun Watson over him. But just look at the consistency of Watson. This is his third year as an NFL starter. His traditional quarterback ratings are 103.0, 103.1, and 103.4. He’s on pace for consecutive 4,000 yard passing seasons. He’s on pace to throw 30 TDs and rush for close to 10 more. He is a winner and a really good QB. I’m a huge Deshaun Watson fan. But I’m also a sane and rational person sometimes. So it’s Mahomes in this unfairly seeded (for Watson) matchup. 

Nick Foles (11) vs. Josh Allen (3)

No, I can’t let Deshaun Watson win this matchup, unfortunately. Foles is 7 years older than Allen and not nearly as mobile as the 7th pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. But Foles is a proven NFL winner (insert Trademark here). He’s been a good quarterback everywhere he’s gone, save for that stint in St. Louis playing for Jeff Fisher (guess who I blame for that one). Allen would be lucky to one day have a ceiling of Nick Foles. 

Derek Carr (7) vs. Lamar Jackson (2)

Remember, there will be a time and a place to discuss the greatness that Lamar Jackson has exhibited at this early stage in his career. We’re not there yet. Be patient. 

 

THIRD ROUND:

Tom Brady (1) vs. Patrick Mahomes (5)

There’s really no sense in dragging this out. Mahomes is on a level well above Brady right now and for the rest of their lives. Brady is the greatest quarterback of all time, but he’s 42 and looks 42. Mahomes is a gunslinging, scrambling wonder of a quarterback. I started watching the NFL again largely because I felt I was missing out by not watching Mahomes play. He’s the winner here, setting up quite the AFC final, because…

Nick Foles (11) vs. Lamar Jackson (2)

We are nearing the time and place where we will discuss Lamar Jackson’s greatness, but we haven’t gotten there just yet. 

 

AFC FINAL:

Patrick Mahomes (5) vs. Lamar Jackson (2)

It is very, very easy to jump the gun on a young, dynamic, exciting quarterback. We’ve been there recently with RGIII. We were there with Colin Kaepernick (who regressed measurably as a QB before Roger Goodell and the 32 owners blackballed him from the league). Even Cam Newton fits the definition and he won an MVP. Cam is now 30 and there are justified questions about whether Carolina is better long term without him.  Sustained greatness is very, very hard to achieve. So that’s the elephant in the room with this Mahomes v. Jackson matchup. I will also point out the other elephant in the room here: all of these quarterbacks are black. If anything, I think it says something we probably already knew about how the NFL treats black quarterbacks. Just imagine for a moment if Mitchell Trubisky was black and ask yourself what CFL team he’d be a third string QB for. Anyway…

Lamar Jackson is coming off of a legendary Monday Night Football performance, on the road, against a supposedly good defense. He is one of the fastest open field runners in the NFL at any position. In his first year as a full-time starter, he has made the blander-than-white rice Baltimore Ravens into the most must-watch team in the NFL. And he’s doing it with his arm too. 24 passing TDs to only 5 INTs. Highest QBR in the league. 67% accuracy rate. Third highest traditional passer rating. He’s on pace to throw for 3500+ yards and rush for more yards than any quarterback in a single season ever. He’s 22 years old. And 31 players were selected ahead of him in the 2018 NFL Draft (entirely because he’s a black quarterback. There is literally no other reason. He was a marvel in college and is a by-all-accounts good and decent person). 

And then there’s Patrick Mahomes. He’s the reigning MVP of the league. He’d be in that conversation this season too if not for an injury that saw him miss two games. Even still, he’s on pace for 4,000+ yards passing. He threw 50 TDs last season. He currently has an absurd 9.5:1 TD:INT ratio. And he just turned 24. 

I’m going with Mahomes here because he has an extra season under his belt. Lamar might very well prove me wrong, but to do that, he’ll have to be better than Mahomes and I’m not sure what that could possibly look like

 

NFC

1.  Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) vs. 16. Dwayne Haskins Jr. (WAS)

The San Francisco 49ers might be tied with New England for the best record in the NFL, but it’s not because of anything Jimmy G has done. He has been perfectly adequate in his role. He manages the game smartly and completes 69% of his passes. Dwayne Haskins…the jury is still out on Dwayne, but the 13.8 QBR could, um, be better.

8. Mitchell Trubisky (CHI) vs.  9. Carson Wentz (PHI)

No to all of this. A funny story: as mentioned, I lapsed in my football watching. I started paying some attention late last year and then have actually started following both college and the NFL this season. I recently commented to a friend something along the lines of: “MItchell Trubisky is the worst quarterback in the NFL, right?” I was flabbergasted to find out that he was the second overall pick in his draft. You know who else was the second overall pick in his draft? Carson Wentz. Man, it pays to be a mediocre white dude. Anyway, Trubisky is objectively bad and Wentz’s badness is somewhat debatable. Carson it is. 

5. Kirk Cousins (MIN) vs. 12. Matthew Stafford (DET)

Who leads the NFL in traditional passer rating? Mahomes? Wilson? Mason Rudolph? Nope. It’s Kirk Cousins at a whopping 114.8. Traditional passer rating is as flawed a tool at measuring how good a QB is as RBI is at measuring a baseball hitter’s value, but it can still be an interesting factoid. Not to be outdone, Matt Stafford is 7th with a 106.0 rating. In QBR, they’re 6th (Stafford) and 7th. They’re both averaging 8.6 yards per attempt (4th in the league). And they’re both 31 years old.  What I’m saying is: they’re both playing really well this season and it’s hard to pick one to ultimately lose in the next round. Cousins is currently healthy though, so the nod goes to Kirk.

4. Aaron Rodgers (GB) vs. 13. Kyler Murray (AZ)

Aaron Rodgers has won all 4 of these exercises in the past. So it’s strange then that he’s going to lose in the first round this year. But he is. Kyler Murray has not been asked to do a lot for the not-very-good Arizona Cardinals. But he has done what he’s been asked to do very well. 14 TDs. Only 5 INTs. 65% completion rate. On pace to pass for nearly 4,000 yards and more than 500 rushing yards. He’s 9th in the NFL in QBR. All of these statistics came as a shock to me. And he’s 22. Aaron Rodgers turns 36 next week. He’s a Hall of Fame quarterback. First ballot probably. But he’s 36 and facing a really young, exciting, and thus far successful rookie quarterback. So even though Rodgers’ 9:1 TD:INT ratio looks great, and even though Rodgers would have advanced out of the top half of this bracket without Kyler Murray, the seedings are as they are. 

6. Dak Prescott (DAL) vs. 11. Jameis Winston (TB)

One guy leads the NFL in passing yards (on pace for 4,993 total). The other guy leads the NFL in interceptions (on pace for 29). One guy is an accused rapist and batterer. The other guy eats Chunky soup. I’ll take the passing yardage and 800 calorie soup, please. 

3. Russell Wilson (SEA) vs. 14. Matt Ryan (ATL)

There may have been a time or place where this would have been interesting. This is not that time or place. Matt Ryan is going to continue to put up gaudy numbers, but it will remain Foutsian in its way. Meanwhile, Russell Wilson is playing for his second Super Bowl and is in a three-man race with Prescott and Jackson for NFL MVP. 

7. Jared Goff (LAR) vs. 10. Kyle Allen (CAR)

Jared Goff is a bad quarterback. His salary is high, yes. But he is very bad at quarterbacking. Maybe he was exposed by the Patriots in the Super Bowl. Or maybe he was always not good and succeeded because nobody had exposed his overrated head coach. But in a passing era, Jared Goff, a former number one overall pick, is completing 61% of his passes and has thrown more INTs than TDs. He’s not good. I write this now because he’s still a better quarterback than Kyle Allen, who may or may not be Carolina’s “Quarterback of the Future.” If this had been Cam Newton instead, I still might have gone with Goff, which says more about the Panthers than it does Jared Goff.

2. Drew Brees (NO) vs. 15. Daniel Jones (NYG)

Drew Brees is 40 years old. Daniel Jones is 22. This has an Aaron Rodgers vs. Kyler Murray feel to it. I want Rodgers if I need to win a game today, just like I want Brees in that same situation. But beyond this season? It gets murkier. Jones has not been as impressive as Kyler Murray, but he hasn’t been bad. He’s not turning the ball over at an alarming rate. He’s completing 62% of his passes, which isn’t great, but the Giants offensive line makes the Texans’ look like the Cowboys’. (Jesus that was convoluted). I guess what I’m saying is, I’m going to go with youth here. But only barely. And only because I want to be consistent in my logic. 

 

SECOND ROUND:

Jimmy Garoppolo (1) vs. Carson Wentz (9)

It’s probably easy to just assume that Garoppolo and his 10-1 record should win this over Wentz, who has a Super Bowl ring that Nick Foles gave him. Wentz is two years younger, but his injury history (long and nagging) is more troublesome than Garoppolo’s (a torn ACL in 2018). Neither is a guy I’d be eager to start a franchise with, but I’ve got to choose and I’ll go with Garoppolo. 
Kirk Cousins (5) vs. Kyler Murray (13)

If Kyler Murray beat out Aaron Rodgers, you know how this is going. 

Dak Prescott (6) vs. Russell Wilson (3)

This is the NFC’s version of Mahomes vs. Watson in that it’s entirely unfair to Prescott. He gets a tougher shake than most because he’s the quarterback of the Dallas Cowboys, a team people treat like a perennial champion even though they haven’t played in a Super Bowl since I was in middle school. Dak plays behind the league’s best offensive line and has one of the best running backs behind him, but he’s not a game manager. He’s a very good quarterback. He’s third in the league in yards per attempt, and third in QBR, just ahead of Russell Wilson. So why am I picking Russell Wilson? Because Russell manages a game better than Prescott or anyone for that matter. Wilson knows how to win. When the situation calls for airing it out, he can do it. When it calls for a safe and accurate passing game, he can do it (his 8:1 TD:INT ratio this year, thank you). He’s just so consistently good and yet still relatively young (31 years old in a few days). (He also hasn’t missed a start since he came into the league, for what that’s worth).

Jared Goff (7) vs. Daniel Jones (15)

It’s Daniel Jones and let’s not spend any more time on this. 

 

THIRD ROUND:

Jimmy Garoppolo (1) vs. Kyler Murray (13)

I’m obviously going with the upside of Murray here. Is his height concerning? A little, but it hasn’t exactly failed him in his rookie campaign playing behind a bad offensive line. He’s in the perfect system in Arizona for a player with his skill set and his ceiling is ultimately a lot higher than Garoppolo’s, who is already 28 years old. 

Russell Wilson (3) vs. Daniel Jones (15)

Daniel Jones’ improbable (and favorable matchup-aided) Cinderella run comes to an abrupt, screeching halt. 

 

NFC FINAL:

Kyler Murray (13) vs. Russell Wilson (3)

Kyler Murray’s ceiling might be Russell Wilson, lazy comp aside. But Wilson is already there and has been doing remarkably good quarterbacking for 8 seasons despite playing with a less than stellar cast of skill position players. It’s Wilson now. If I let six years lapse between these posts, it’s almost assuredly Murray in 2025. 

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

Patrick Mahomes vs. Russell Wilson

This is easy. It’s unfortunate, I guess, because I actually think Wilson is underappreciated by football fans. He more than anyone else, in my estimation, shattered the terrible, outdated stereotypes about black quarterbacks and the decidedly less terrible stereotypes about short quarterbacks. He’s a 5’11”, black, Super Bowl winning, future Hall of Fame NFL quarterback. His success opened the door for Kyler Murray to be drafted first overall. And it’s likely that his success encouraged NFL executives to think beyond the “system QB” label that they previously applied to quarterbacks of color, opening the door for Mahomes, Murray, Watson, and Lamar Jackson. 

It’s not meaningless that this meaningless blog post ended with four black quarterbacks in the semifinals. And I think Russell Wilson’s success has a lot to do with that. 

Ultimately though, Patrick Mahomes is the face of the NFL today. His combination of age, pass accuracy, arm strength, size, and speed makes him an ideal quarterback for not just this era, but any era. 

 

Living Through The Genocide

In a past life, I had a job working for Senator Harry Reid. In that job, people who have moved on to much bigger things trusted me to “handle” advocates at press events and photo ops. Mostly this meant I’d ask Michael Bolton if he’d like a water and if he was clear on the speaking order.

After Sandy Hook, I started working with the sisters, teachers, and mothers whose lives were transformed forever by that shooting. I spent a lot of time with them and got to know a few of them well. They were poised and focused. The first visit was filled with the optimism that comes from “doing something.” With each visit though, it seemed (and maybe I’m wrong) that the optimism waned internally for some of them. Remember, these are people whose six year old children were massacred by a heavily armed man in the middle of the day for no particular reason. One visit to the Capitol should have been enough. Two should have been enough. Three…
When it came time for Manchin-Toomey, somehow the closest thing we’ve gotten to bipartisan gun legislation, the Sandy Hook families returned. I sat with them in the Leader’s gallery, above the Senate floor. I knew the result beforehand. Moments like John McCain’s face turn are rare in the Senate. I’d guess that on 90% of votes, any senior and a lot of junior staffers, can tell you how every member will vote.
The Sandy Hook families, though, did not know the result beforehand. They returned with that optimism from that first trip. Then they had that optimism ripped from them not unlike how their loved ones were ripped from them.
One mother of a Sandy Hook teacher stood up and yelled “shame.” She was removed from the gallery by US Capitol Police and taken briefly into custody but never charged with anything if I remember correctly. There was and remains a sick irony in that moment.
As she was being apprehended, I broke the fourth wall and just apologized a lot to her and the other family members for the place that I chose to work. Manchin-Toomey was the sort of legislation that any rational person looked at and said “well at least it’s something.” But for Senate Republicans, something was too much. Something remains too much today in the wake of yet two more of these regular acts of violence.
Whenever one of these massacres occurs, I think of the Sandy Hook families. Once I left Reid’s office in 2013, I lost track of them. I wonder where their minds go to when they see that 20 people were slaughtered to death in a Walmart on a Saturday. Sandy Hook wasn’t the first case of an angry white man with access to an AR-15 killing a lot of people for some or no reason. But it was supposed to be the straw that broke the turtle’s back.
Instead, we are here. Every single moment that Mitch McConnell, John Cronyn, John Thune, and Roy Blunt dare leave their homes, they should be confronted with the faces of the people they had a chance to protect, but chose campaign donations over.
I made a tweet yesterday about the staff members who work for those and other Republican senators. They are people that many of you consider friends and trust me, it’s okay to have friends who believe in lower taxes. It is not okay, though, to have friends who believe that it’s okay that a dozen or so five year olds should die at school or that families out shopping on a Saturday should have their heads shot through.
Talk to these friends. Ask them if they understand what they’re doing working for people as callous as McConnell, Cornyn, and the rest. There are many, many jobs in Washington for people who happen to believe in conservatism and not all of them involve turning a blind eye away from the rush of human blood.

Living on Tulsa Time…or How I Learned to be Tulsa Nice

Los Angeles was always the goal. Washington, DC was just a necessary step. Nobody smoothly transitions from Taunton, Massachusetts to Los Angeles, California. 11 years in DC was like an apprenticeship. It was too long of an apprenticeship, but it was that. When the apprenticeship came to an end, I knew it was time to move to Los Angeles. And yet, I’m writing this in the middle of the country, in the Oil Capital of the United States, wondering how the last 10 months of my life happened. 

I’ve taken to referring to living in Tulsa, Oklahoma as a “layover.” A brief and thoroughly inconvenient stop from one great place to another. But as this time in Tulsa has come closer to its conclusion and as it gets closer to boarding time, I realize that’s all a little too unfair to this interesting and complex city. 

In all of my years of traveling, I have never met a city that I couldn’t become enamored with. In my lifetime, I’ve wanted to move to: Fort Lauderdale, New Orleans, Boise, Birmingham (Alabama), Phoenix, Salt Lake City, Las Vegas, Berkeley, basically everywhere but Chicago. Only one city, though, had their visit so indirectly strategically planned as to actual win my long-term presence. 

Amanda and I spent months debating where we were going to move to once our lease expired in late September 2018. It was Los Angeles vs. The City of the Moment. We would convince ourselves that any one of about 20 American cities could compete with LA and be a better fit. Boise, Seattle, Phoenix, Houston, Denver, and on and on. Each week, there was new competition for LA. In early August we settled on Las Vegas, made all of the rational arguments to ourselves and our friends and colleagues and actually told people that’s where we were going. A week later, I came to Tulsa with Amanda for her work and convinced myself that Tulsa was the right place to move. We had already been recruited by a very ambitious, type A gentleman who met with us in DC in May and laid the groundwork for Tulsa. Being on the ground, and being away from the commotion and intensity of DC was so relieving that I missed all of the things that would lead Amanda and me to regret our decision to move to Tulsa almost instantly upon touching down here in October. 

We were assured that Tulsa was not the conservative hellscape that the rest of Oklahoma is. It was a pocket of comparatively progressive thinking. The first week living here, I had a man at a soccer match yell “Drain the swamp” at me. Another man, at a bar, explained to us that the Civil War wasn’t about race or slavery even, but really it was about the economy (stupid). People told us that wasn’t emblematic of the Tulsa way. And yet, I had very few people approach me to talk about carbon taxes, the Violence Against Women Act, or how Mitch McConnell is the worst person in American politics, yet somehow gets away with it. It was a profound moment when we realized that you don’t see any MAGA hats in Tulsa and that was because nobody felt the need to make that statement here in the way that they would if they were vacationing in Washington, DC. 

Which brings me to “Tulsa Nice.” I was hired by Tulsa Public Schools to serve as their Media Relations Manager (and de facto spokesperson) in November, right as the transition to Tulsa life was getting harder and harder for Amanda and me. When people asked me how I liked Tulsa in introductory meetings, I would be watered-down honest with them. I didn’t share the “Drain the Swamp” or Civil War anecdote with many people and didn’t talk about the appalling racial segregation. I just simply said the transition was harder than we expected but that we were here and were going to make the most of it. 

Then, one day, a very high-level staffer who I’ll spare using the name of, but a nightmare of a person who I never heard a pleasant word spoken about before or after, told me that I needed to exhibit a commitment to Tulsa, the city. I wasn’t sure what they meant. Tattoo the city flag on me (I’d do that…it’s a pretty cool flag)? Pledge allegiance to Mayor G.T. Bynum?  This person being a transplant themselves, with the very transparent mission of getting hired in a larger school district in 3-5 years, this felt startlingly uncomfortable and uncalled for. I had done everything asked of me in my 3 weeks on the job, despite being given responsibilities at a level well past what my onboarding plan had outlined. Their criticism was in no way rooted in my professional performance. It was that they just simply didn’t like me. The crux of their argument was that when people asked me about living in Tulsa, I needed to just lie to them and say, “things were great.” I needed to be more “Tulsa Nice.”. 

I quit that job two days later. 

“Tulsa Nice” as a concept and as I’ve come to learn it, involves suffocating any thought counter-programmed with the “way one should think” here. “Tulsa Nice” also involves walking with your head down and ignoring a pleasant “Hello” in the hallway of your apartment building. People will literally stand with their face to their door waiting for Amanda and me to walk by them before exiting. This actually happens. “Tulsa Nice” involves snapping your fingers at busy servers in restaurants or just yelling orders at them from 20 feet away. “Tulsa Nice” is willingly not talking to strangers. I realized early on here that I couldn’t go to minor league baseball games by myself. In every other city and park I’ve been to, people want to chat about baseball or travel or both. I spent 3 hours in Birmingham chatting with the boosters for the Montgomery Biscuits one night and had a blast even though I missed 50% of the game. There was a father and son in Pulaski, Virginia who were eager to talk baseball with the stranger sitting next to them at an Appy League game. I have a theoretical rolodex filled with business cards of real estate agents, lawyers, dentists, and accountants across the country who I’ve shared 3 hours with behind home plate in American towns and cities.  In Tulsa, I found myself sitting in isolation at games, until I decided I needed Amanda with me if I wasn’t going to sit in awkward silence by myself for 3 hours. Because there’s very little more awkward for me than saying, “wow what a slider this kid’s got” and having the gentleman or woman next to me react as though I’ve just said Islam is the one and true faith. 

And yet, with all of those 1,000 words, I am going to miss it here. 

Life is easy in Tulsa (as a financially secure, white, cis, heterosexual married white man). There’s no traffic. There is what people think is traffic, but it is not city traffic. If you cannot get from downtown to the east side in 15 minutes, there was probably a nuclear explosion. Going to the grocery store has never been an endeavor here. In DC, it was like a 90 minute project. Amanda and I would strategize like we were invading a hostile territory. Here, we can go 4 or 5 times a week and it’s a breeze. Dining out is great too. There aren’t a lot of truly great restaurants here, but you never have to wait on the sidewalk for them or contemplate paying a person to do the waiting for you. One of them, the phenomenal Oren, would have a Michelin star if it wasn’t in Oklahoma. The level of craftsmanship in their cooking, plating, and service is unparalleled here or many other places. The craft beer scene in Tulsa is great too. American Solera is, in my opinion, one of America’s best breweries. Not “hidden jewel” best or “in a small city” best. Just simply “best.” And whenever we want to try one of their new beers, we can just go and get one and sit and enjoy it. No lines. No standing next to a bathroom trying to find space. No raffles for the opportunity to taste the beer. If American Solera was in DC, we’d probably rebel against it because of how hard it would be to go to. And if perfect hazy IPAs and barrel-aged ales and stouts are not your thing, there’s a good Belgian-centric brewery here (Cabin Boys) and a place that makes complex, funky, European-influenced ales (Heirloom Rustic Ales). And a handful of others who do what they do pretty well.

American Solera and Oren deserve special sections though. Solera became our happy place here at the end of our first week. We were filled with regret already. We missed our friends and their kids so much and the prospect of being far away from them had really hit us both simultaneously. We sat outside on a warm October night and realized that we had found a place that felt comfortable. The staff is incredibly kind, friendly, funny, and engaging. We go once a week on average, because there’s so much tap list turnover and it’s just a great place to see and chat with familiar faces. Same at Oren. The service industry as a whole is excellent in Tulsa and very much the opposite of the general public who we’ve interacted with. Much of that, from observation, appears to be based on the need to be patient. If you don’t have patience with demanding and entitled people, you can’t be a good server in Tulsa. The staffs at American Solera and Oren are some of the best I’ve come across in all of my travels and I will miss them immensely. 

I say “miss them” because after putting it off for years and years, Amanda and I are finally moving to Los Angeles in two weeks. We don’t know for how long. It’ll be at least one year. My guess is that it will either be for a year or forever. A lot of that depends on what I’m going to do professionally and let me tell you, that’s another essay on its own. If you have ideas, send them my way. Time will tell just how much we’ll miss Tulsa and how we will ultimately view this strange 10 month layover in the middle of the country. But there will likely be a day where we’ll think back fondly to the ease of life here, before ultimately balancing that out with the difficulties we had. There’s good and bad in all places. If nothing else, that’s what I’ve learned while living on Tulsa Time. 

2019 Major League Baseball Preview

I wrote my 2018 season preview with a somewhat lengthy intro discussing the labor practices employed during that offseason by MLB clubs. Those practices consisted of a sort of free agency by attrition. “Alarm the players by withholding offers until they’re desperate to play baseball and will do it for a 50% discount.”

Those trends were not only employed during this most recent offseason, they were intensified. At the start of Spring Training, four of the top five or six free agents were unsigned. Today, as I write this, two of those players (Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel) stunningly remain free agents, available to any club who wants to add the 2015 Cy Young award winner and/or Craig Kimbrel. Keuchel’s free agency is the one that I find more troublesome because it dovetails into the bigger, murkier problem that I see with Major League Baseball…

The nerds!

Now, I’m a nerd, in both the baseball and real sense (I like professional wrestling more than I like those weird running races where everybody gets dirty for some reason but seem like something cool people do). I want to stick exclusively here though to the baseball side. “Nerd” has become a pejorative used by old baseball players, some young baseball players, many fans on social media, many fans who don’t know what social media is, and various people whose job it is to write and talk about baseball. They use “nerd” to describe Ivy League-educated front office executives who have transformed the way that the business of baseball is conducted. I alluded to this a little last year, but the “Moneyball” concept popularized by the Oakland Athletics in the early 2000s and thrown into the public zeitgeist by a terrible, awful movie, is now the norm in baseball. It might be a complex situation, but it sure as hell doesn’t seem like one to me. The MLB Players Association repeatedly got their asses kicked in collective bargaining discussions by the owners and now find themselves in a situation where the 30 owners, whose job it is in this capitalist nightmare to turn the largest profit for their own benefit, can easily make record profits by paying Cambodian riel to young players for upwards of six seasons before those players’ agents can truly negotiate to receive their clients’ actual monetary value.

The so-called nerds have also shaped the way rosters are built. And that may be a reason why a guy like Keuchel remains unemployed. The long-revered “innings eater” has been all-but-proven to have been a bad idea. Baseball of 20 and even 10 years ago is littered with guys who had almost decade-long careers despite producing well-below average results. On a recent trip down the baseballreference.com hole, I stumbled upon James Baldwin’s page. Baldwin was a Major League starting pitcher for seven years of an utterly unremarkable 11 year career. He pitched at least 150 innings in each of those seven seasons. Only once was he above league average. Every fifth day, James Baldwin would go out there with a 5.00 ERA, strike out hardly anybody, pitch over five innings and somehow stay employed. Think he’s an outlier? Take a look at the pages for Baseball-Reference’s “similar players.” Ramon Ortiz, Adam Eaton, Rodrigo Lopez, Kyle Kendrick, Colby Lewis, Joey Hamilton, and on and on and on.

Now, Dallas Keuchel is not the same pitcher as those gentlemen. He is much better and is a recent Cy Young winner. He is an extreme groundball pitcher with a career ERA of 3.66 and an ERA+ of 108. He is, by definition, an above-average pitcher. But he is a dinosaur.  Keuchel’s fastball is “on” when it’s 90 mph and as a groundball pitcher , he’s going to give up contact. Contact, in baseball 2019 is not a good thing. Which brings me to the whole crux of this long diatribe:

I don’t think I like baseball as much as I used to and I think that’s my fault. Now, understand, I have absolutely no influence on anyone. I barely have influence on myself. But I feel a little guilty that the baseball I spent years demanding has arrived and I think it’s making the game less enjoyable to watch. Home runs are a good thing offensively. The goal of baseball is to score more runs. Strikeouts are good for pitchers. The goal of baseball is to make the team get more outs and the most effective way to do that is to prevent them from even hitting the ball. It took baseball a long time to reach these universal conclusions, somehow. I’m personally torn between 1.) knowing that the science says this is the best way to build baseball teams for on-field success and 2.) standing on the street corner with a sign that reads “Bring Back the Dodo.” Or perhaps, “Bring Back James Baldwin. No. Not That One. The Pitcher. But Yes Also The Author.”

Brief team capsules below (scroll to the bottom for predicted division standings, playoffs, and awards stuff if you’d like):

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Current Status: Losing to rebuild. The prospects aren’t quite there yet for a full rebuild, so they need to be real bad first.

Biggest Offseason Move: Trading franchise cornerstone Paul Goldschmidt for St. Louis’ former top prospects.

Most Exciting Player: Archie Bradley. An important note here is that if a team’s most exciting player is a relief pitcher, that team isn’t going to have a very good 2019.

Are They Worth Watching?: No, they are not.

ATLANTA BRAVES
Current Status: Light contention. They won their division last year but did very little in free agency to build off of that.

Biggest Offseason Move: Signing Josh Donaldson to a one-year contract, where they’ll pay him a lot of money, knowing that if he bounces back, he’s going to sign somewhere else next offseason, and if he doesn’t bounce back, they just spent $23 million on a one-year third base stopgap while they wait for prospect Austin Riley to be ready.

Most Exciting Player: Ronald Acuña Jr. is so exciting at the plate. He’s the Patrick Mahomes of baseball. I don’t watch a lot of football so I’m going with that.

Are They Worth Watching?: They are.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Current Status: Rigor mortis is setting in.

Biggest Offseason Move: Accepting the reality that we are all mortal.

Most Exciting Player: They have some really good minor league players who I think are good who the Orioles will inevitably ruin.

Are They Worth Watching?: Are you a sadist?

BOSTON RED SOX
Current Status: Trying to keep New England sports fans happy by ending their long, championship-less curse.

Biggest Offseason Move: Nothing. The Red Sox did nothing. They brought Steve Pearce back on an insignificant contract and they signed Nathan Eovaldi to a “thank you for your services” contract that WEEI callers will be complaining about by August.

Most Exciting Player: As long as he’s a player on this team, the answer will be Mookie Betts.

Are They Worth Watching?: Yes, if you’re able to find any of their games on ESPN or MLB Network.

CHICAGO CUBS
Current Status: Hanging on to 2016 like Al Bundy talking about his 4 TDs at Polk High.

Biggest Offseason Move: Somehow not sending human monster Addison Russell away to baseball purgatory. Other than that, the Cubs did not make anything resembling a roster upgrade.

Most Exciting Player: Javy Baez. If he could actually develop into a slightly more selective hitter, he’d be an MVP candidate. That said, on an otherwise boring, but good, Cubs team, he’s lightning.

Are They Worth Watching?: Well, I did just call them boring. But yes. They play in a really competitive division and this seems like it could be the end of this run if they don’t make a deep playoff push.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Current Status: Wrapping Dylan Cease and Eloy Jimenez in bubble wrap.

Biggest Offseason Move: Signing anybody who ever talked to Manny Machado in the saddest effort to get him to sign there.

Most Exciting Player: Eloy Jimenez. Sure, he’s never played in a Major League game, but as a person who spent an inordinate amount of his time watching Jimenez in the minors, let me tell you, his power is prodigious.

Are They Worth Watching?: Worth the occasional pop-in to check on Jimenez and eventually when they call up top pitching prospect Dylan Cease. 2020 and the return of Michael Kopech should see a real improvement in the White Sox’s outlook.

CINCINNATI REDS
Current Status: I think they’re trying to win the NL Central.

Biggest Offseason Move: The most fascinating below-the-radar story heading into this season is how Yasiel Puig will transition from stardom in LA to playing baseball in southwestern Ohio. The Reds decided to bring Puig, Alex Wood, and Matt Kemp in from LA. They took a chance on Sonny Gray. And they traded for Tanner Roark. They were active. I didn’t understand their activity, but they were certainly active.

Most Exciting Player: I adore Joey Votto, but I also used the word “exciting,” so let’s go with Puig with a nod to the under appreciated Jesse Winker.

Are They Worth Watching?: Probably not.

CLEVELAND INDIANS
Current Status: Content with winning the AL Central.

Biggest Offseason Move: Not trading Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer.

Most Exciting Player: Jose Ramirez.

Are They Worth Watching?: Sure.

COLORADO ROCKIES
Current Status: Good.

Biggest Offseason Move: Signing Daniel Murphy to play 1B feels like a stroke of genius, assuming Murphy still has something (besides his unsavory views on homosexuality) in the tank.

Most Exciting Player: Nolan Arenado. The Rockies locked up their massively talented 3B to a long-term deal. Arenado is a gem at the hot corner who will also hit close to 40 homers at the plate.

Are They Worth Watching?: Absolutely. They’ll be in a really fun race with the Padres and Dodgers.

DETROIT TIGERS
Current Status: Bad baseball team.

Biggest Offseason Move: THEY SIGNED JORDY MERCER!!!!

Most Exciting Player: Not Jordy Mercer. This is a dreadfully boring baseball team. But Josh Harrison seems cool so let’s give him this.

Are They Worth Watching?: Are you having trouble sleeping?

HOUSTON ASTROS
Current Status: Being great.

Biggest Offseason Move: The Astros made a really high-upside, low-risk signing bringing Michael Brantley on board. They also re-signed Alex Bregman long-term. And I have a feeling they’ll be the team to sign Keuchel.

Most Exciting Player: There are exciting players everywhere here, including just below the Major League level with top prospect Forrest Whitley. For me though, it’s George Springer. He’s not the best player on this team, but he’s very much the leadoff hitter for this generation of baseball and a guy who is fun to watch play.

Are They Worth Watching?: Yes. Every night.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Current Status: Things are very much back to normal in Kansas City.

Biggest Offseason Move: This is the Royals. They don’t do “big offseason moves.”

Most Exciting Player: Whit Merrifield is a really good baseball player even if it sounds like I just made his name up.

Are They Worth Watching?: They are not.

LOS ANGELES CALIFORNIA ANGELS OF ANAHEIM CALIFORNIA ANGELS
Current Status: Mired in mediocrity.

Biggest Offseason Move: Convincing one of the greatest players to ever play baseball that, yes, he does want to play baseball in the shadow of the 5 freeway for the rest of his career.

Most Exciting Player: Mike Trout.

Are They Worth Watching?: Mike Trout is very much worth watching on a regular basis. Mike Trout plays for this team. Ergo, yes, they are worth watching.

NOTE: I will never not stop making fun of this team being the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Imagine the New York Yankees of Albany or the Chicago White Sox of Naperville.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS (OF LOS ANGELES)
Current Status: Trying not to lose in the World Series for a third consecutive season.

Biggest Offseason Move: Trading Puig and signing AJ Pollock. No word on if the Pollock signing includes any sort of lemon law or return policy.

Most Exciting Player: Walker Buehler. He’s unhittable and a solid Cy Young bet.

Are They Worth Watching?: Yes.

MIAMI MARLINS
Current Status: Marlining.

Biggest Offseason Move: They didn’t trade Christian Yelich this offseason.

Most Exciting Player: null

Are They Worth Watching?: Absolutely never.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Current Status: World Series or bust.

Biggest Offseason Move: Bringing in Yasmani Grandal and, one would assume, some large net to place behind him while he’s catching.

Most Exciting Player: Yelich, Josh Hader, Jesus Aguilar…any of those. I also have a real thing for Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff whose philosophy as starting pitchers appears to be “strike out everybody.”

Are They Worth Watching?: 100%

MINNESOTA TWINS
Current Status: Creeping quietly into Cleveland Indians bedroom while they’re sleeping.

Biggest Offseason Move: Signing Nelson Cruz. He hits dingers. A lot of dingers. That’s been missing from Minnesota for a while now.

Most Exciting Player: Byron Buxton. I may be the last person driving the bandwagon, which at this point resembles a unicycle more than a wagon. He’s still got five tools in his pocket. There are not many players in baseball like him. If he puts it together, he can challenge Trout for “best in the game.” Yes, I’m kind of delusional.

Are They Worth Watching?: They’re medium worth it. Very worth it when Jose Berrios is pitching.

NEW YORK METS
Current Status: Continuing to act like a small-market team despite playing in, you know, New York City.

Biggest Offseason Move: I guess it’s bringing Robinson Cano aboard. I don’t get the trade.

Most Exciting Player: deGrom or Syndergaard. deGrom is consistently dominant. Syndergaard can be even more dominant than deGrom at times. I’ll take deGrom.

Are They Worth Watching?: They are AND they have the best in-booth TV announcers in baseball in my opinion.

NEW YORK YANKEES
Current Status: Contending for a World Series while not spending much money in free agency.

Biggest Offseason Move: Signing Troy Tulowitzki (calm down it’s the year 2019).

Most Exciting Player: Aaron Judge because he’s big and hits big home runs.

Are They Worth Watching?: See Red Sox, Boston.

OAKLAND ATHLETICS
Current Status: Really hoping that 2018 was not a fluke.

Biggest Offseason Move: See Royals, Kansas City.

Most Exciting Player: Matt Chapman, with apologies to Khris Davis who hits more home runs than anyone. Chapman may be the AL’s answer to Nolan Arenado.

Are They Worth Watching?: Only slightly more watchable than the Twins, which sounds more insulting than I meant it to.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Current Status: Trying to win a World Series or firing Gabe Kapler. Or maybe both???

Biggest Offseason Move: Trading for catcher JT Realmuto. That’s the only thing the Phillies did this offseason. Yep. That’s it.

Most Exciting Player: Definitely not Bryce Harper.

Are They Worth Watching?: Absolutely. God, they’re so watchable.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Current Status: Quo

Biggest Offseason Move: See Royals, Kansas City or Athletics, Oakland.

Most Exciting Player: Chris Archer. I’ve always been a big fan. He’s an exciting guy to watch pitch because he’s passionate. Baseball needs more Chris Archers.

Are They Worth Watching?: Firmly in the medium tier of teams that I’ll only watch if they’re playing the Nats or they’re the only team with an afternoon game on a Wednesday.

SAN DIEGO PADRES
Current Status: Riding high. Soaking it all in. Making sure the mellow doesn’t harsh.

Biggest Offseason Move: Signing Manny Machado to be the franchise cornerstone for the next decade seems like a good place to start.

Most Exciting Player: Fernando Tatis Jr. Much like Eloy Jimenez, Tatis Jr. has not played a game in the Majors. Another thing that Tatis Jr. has in common with Eloy Jimenez is that he was once in the White Sox organization but then they traded him for James Shields. It’s sad to be a Chicago White Sox fan. Tatis Jr. is one of those hitters for whom the sound of bat to ball makes a different, special kind of noise. He’s going to win the National League Rookie of the Year award.

Are They Worth Watching?: For the first time in a very, very long time, yes. Offensively, they’re a really compelling team. Starting pitching is the wild card. [BAD PUN ALERT] And I think the Padres might be a Wild Card too.

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
Current Status: Wishing this was an even year and also five years ago.

Biggest Offseason Move: With an outfield of Mac Williamson, Steve Duggar, and Austin Slater, why would you even need to make an offseason move?

Most Exciting Player: Madison Bumgarner if only to see how many Latino baseball players he’ll yell at.

Are They Worth Watching?: You’ll be able to find the inevitable video of Bumgarner yelling at Acuña Jr. to play the game the right way. So, no. Not worth watching.

SEATTLE MARINERS
Current Status: Aiming for .500.

Biggest Offseason Move: Trading Robinson Cano. They won’t reap the rewards of that move for a few years, but this feels like a nice little reset for the M’s.

Most Exciting Player: Dee Gordon is a terrific person by all accounts and you should read this admittedly very sad profile of his young life. 

Are They Worth Watching?: They already had their moment in the spotlight with their Japan games against the Athletics. Give someone else a turn.

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Current Status: Remaining just the most classiest organization in all of baseball with the bestest fans there ever were.

Biggest Offseason Move: Acquiring Paul Goldschmidt and giving Arizona very little value for him.

Most Exciting Player: Alex Reyes. He’s the team’s future ace and he’ll likely be pitching out of the bullpen in his first full season back from Tommy John.

Are They Worth Watching?: You have no choice in this matter. There will always be a Cardinals game on television.

TAMPA BAY RAYS
Current Status: Doing that whole 3-man rotation thing again.

Biggest Offseason Move: Signing Charlie Morton to be one of those three men.

Most Exciting Player: It’s probably Blake Snell, but I can’t tell you why he’s exciting.

Are They Worth Watching?: No but they’ll probably win 90 games somehow.

TEXAS RANGERS
Current Status: What’s it called when you go into an MLB season with Mike Minor as your ace?

Biggest Offseason Move: Asdrubal Cabrera is Adrian Beltre’s replacement.

Most Exciting Player: 40 HR/200 K man Joey Gallo. Feel the excitement!

Are They Worth Watching?: Sure if you don’t value your time.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Current Status: Staring at a clock, waiting to call up Vlad Guerrero Jr.

Biggest Offseason Move: The answer is probably Freddy Galvis and that’s a bad answer.

Most Exciting Player: Marcus Stroman for the time being.

Are They Worth Watching?: You will watch them on the day when Vladito makes his Major League debut. There will be no time before that where you should feel compelled to watch them.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Current Status: Getting over a bad breakup.

Biggest Offseason Move: Moving on from their ex.

Most Exciting Player: Juan Soto. We all kind of suck societally right now and that suckiness causes us to not appreciate things that are rare and beautiful, like a teenager coming up from essentially A ball and hitting 22 HR with an OBP over .400 over an MLB season. I saw Juan Soto play in Hagerstown, Maryland in early April of last season. By May 15, he was a Major Leaguer.

Are They Worth Watching?: Yes. Overlay their radio broadcast so that you don’t get baseball brain damage from listening to FP Santangelo on the TV broadcast.

THE PREDICTIONS

AL East

  1.  New York
  2.  Boston-wc
  3.  Tampa Bay
  4.  Toronto
  5.  Baltimore

AL Central

  1.  Minnesota
  2.  Cleveland-wc
  3.  Chicago
  4.  Kansas City
  5.  Detroit

AL West

  1.  Houston
  2.  Seattle
  3.  Los Angeles of Anaheim California
  4.  Oakland
  5.  Texas

NL East

  1.  Washington
  2.  Philadelphia-wc
  3.  New York
  4.  Atlanta
  5.  Miami

NL Central

  1.  Chicago
  2.  Milwaukee-wc
  3.  St. Louis
  4.  Cincinnati
  5.  Pittsburgh

NL West

  1.  Los Angeles
  2.  Colorado
  3.  San Diego 
  4.  Arizona
  5.  San Francisco

 

AL Playoffs:

Wild Card Game: Boston over Cleveland

Division Series: Houston over Boston, New York over Minnesota

Championship Series: Houston over New York

 

NL Playoffs:

Wild Card Game: Milwaukee over Philadelphia

Division Series: Washington over Los Angeles, Milwaukee over Chicago

Championship Series: Milwaukee over Washington

 

World Series: Houston over Milwaukee

 

Awards Predictions That Will Be Wrong, Probably

AL MVP: Mike Trout

AL Cy Young: Chris Sale

AL Rookie of the Year: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

 

NL MVP: Juan Soto

NL Cy Young: Walker Buehler

NL Rookie of the Year: Fernando Tatis Jr.

My Season With the Minnesota Timberwolves

It’s the early morning hours of October 13, 2017. Amanda is walking with me, back to my car, after the Washington Nationals’ most recent Game 5 collapse. My voice is hoarse from yelling. My hands hurt from clapping. And my head is full of the frustration that comes with emotionally investing yourself in sports teams.

And in this moment, for reasons I still don’t understand, Amanda decided that she wanted to become a sports fan.

“I want to follow an NBA team this season. Like, really follow them,” the conversation starts. I’m puzzled. “Like, you want to watch games?” “Yes,” she says. “Who should I root for?”

I give her a few options: The 76ers (eliminated early on because Eastern Time Zone makes it difficult, with work and dinner and all of that stuff, to tune in to the start of games), the Jazz, the Bucks, the Nuggets, and the Timberwolves.

“Okay, I’m going to do some research,” she says and I fully expect her to forget this whole conversation by the time we get back to the Fiat.

A few days later, Amanda declares that she’s narrowed her list down to the Bucks and the Timberwolves. She’s leaning Minnesota because she really likes what she’s read about Jimmy Butler, and she really dislikes what she’s read about the Bucks’ (then) coach Jason Kidd (see: domestic abuse). I endorse the Timberwolves decision and we make a plan to watch a game.

And we do. And then we watch another. And another. And on and on.

Last night, we watched our last Timberwolves game of the 2017-18 season. What I assumed would be a two-week hobby turned into a season-long devotion for Amanda. I’d estimate that we watched about 65 regular season games and each of these fairly predictable playoff ones with Houston. I have so many takeaways from my season spent with the Minnesota Timberwolves. Here they are in no particular order:

-Tom Thibodeau is a terrible in-game coach. His rotations make very little sense. I watched on a handful of occasions in the middle of the season as he played Karl-Anthony Towns, Taj Gibson, and Jimmy Butler in the 4th quarter of 20 point games. Each time he did it, it felt like watching someone drive an antique car blindfolded. You have this beautiful thing and you’re just going to use it wrong? It’s going to get ruined! And the fatigue was real down the stretch. Towns looked tired. And Jimmy’s only real saving grace, if you will, was a knee injury that forced him out of 17 games.

-Jimmy Butler is a treasure. If all he was was a great on-ball defender and a decent scorer, he’d be worth his salary tenfold. But he brings so much more. He can slash. He can shoot. He can defend four positions. He can handle the ball. And he can be the face of a franchise. Minnesota gave up a lot to get Jimmy. Zach LaVine has an enormously high ceiling in the NBA, Kris Dunn will be an above average point guard, and Lauri Markkanen (whom Chicago took with Minnesota’s traded first round draft pick) has the potential to be a transcendent player, in the mold of a Dirk Nowitzki. But Minnesota bet on “right now” with Jimmy and they won the pot. Watching him all season only made me more envious that he wasn’t a Boston Celtic.

-Andrew Wiggins is not a treasure. He signed a max contract extension prior to the start of this season, which will go into effect next season, paying him an AAV of about $28 million for the next 5 seasons. Minnesota will come to rue this signing when they have to choose between paying Jimmy or Karl-Anthony. And all of this for a guy who is often reluctant, and at times invisible, on the court. Wiggins’ 3-year similarity scores on basketball-reference.com are only funny if you’re not a Wolves fan. Matt Bonner. Loy Vaught. Junior Bridgeman. Nick Collison. And yes, I get that he’s 22 years old and there’s room for improvement and blah blah blah. At 22, I firmly believe he is who he is. He’s a subpar outside shooter and subpar one-on-one defender who operates in about 2nd gear all of the time. If watching Jimmy is a pleasure, watching Andrew is a chore.

-“Jeff Teague is garbage. He is awful.” were sentences I uttered nearly every single night. Bad passes, contested shots, sloppy runners in the lane, lackadaisical defense. Thib’s reliance on Teague over the steadier Tyus Jones was perhaps the most perplexing thing to me of this entire season. Well, second most. The most perplexing was…

-Marcus Georges-Hunt. When you spend a lot of time watching a team play, you find yourself becoming enamored with players who maybe aren’t quite as good as you think they are. And maybe MGH is one of those guys. Sure, he averaged less than 1.5 ppg this season and couldn’t knock down three point shots to save his life. But he can defend. And he’s a good shooter inside of the 3 point line (eFG% of 48% in limited time this season). And yet, Thibs refused to play a 24 year old with, at the very least, potential to be a useful defensive tool off the bench. And I think that did a soon-to-be cash strapped team a big disservice. MGH missed out on opportunities to play moderately meaningful minutes and learn the pro game because Tom Thibodeau has trust issues. That’s not good.

– Keita Bates-Diop. Recognizing that Thibs will, unfortunately, be back to coach this team next season and he’s never one to give playing time to young players (see: Georges-Hunt, Marcus and Jones, Tyus), I still would like to see Minnesota use their first round pick (which is Oklahoma City’s original pick) to draft Bates-Diop, someone I think will be instant offense off the bench for any number of playoff teams next season.

Those are just a few of my thoughts on this season. There are games I’ll remember. Like Minnesota losing late in the season to Memphis or early in the season to Phoenix. Or the barn-burner they played against the Cavs when LeBron put them away late in OT. I also have some thoughts on Karl-Anthony Towns that can largely be boiled down to “I honestly don’t think he’s nearly as good as his reputation and even with his youth, I’d rather build a team around Jimmy Butler than KAT, if I had to choose.”

All in all, though, I loved this experience. Sure, I didn’t get to watch nearly as many Celtics games this season as I may have liked. But I really enjoyed getting to teach Amanda some things about basketball. I enjoyed seeing Minnesota in person when they came to DC. And I especially enjoyed watching her experience fandom, the wins and the losses. And I enjoyed developing an attachment to the Wolves.

This morning, despite knowing the end result, Amanda watched the second half of last night’s elimination game, via DVR (we fell asleep in the 3rd quarter when Houston made a run that rendered the result more inevitable than it already was). I asked her why she was doing it and, if I’m going to boil down her response, it was “because I’m a fan.”

And now, I turn MAB over to Amanda for her thoughts on being a Wolves fan, in her words:

Last weekend, I played basketball for the first time in my life. I now fancy myself the Jimmy Butler of 5-foot tall, 33 year old Portuguese ladies who live in DC. I think that narrows it down enough to actually be accurate.

Becoming a sports fan again was fun and frustrating and all of the things it means to be a sports fan. I say again having grown up a Red Sox fan but, most of my adult life has been spent watching sports without a lot of investment in the outcome. Feeling the highs and lows of fandom during this NBA season were worth it, particularly for the way in which I chose the team.

Here are my takes on the Timberwolves that are not reflected in Jason’s thoughts above.

– Jamal Crawford will literally take a shot from anywhere just for the opportunity to take the shot. I guess something is better than nothing. But actually, I don’t think that makes you successful at basketball.
– Cole Aldridge is the best cheerleader the Timberwolves could ever ask for.
– I called Tyus “Ratface” for a most of the first half of the season. I now regret my criticism of his physical appearance, I don’t think he looks like a rat, I think he’s a valuable player who knows how to move well and is way better than Garbage Man Teague. And he seems like a nice young man.
– My attachment to reality television has made me want to know everything about these players’ lives to the point where I have basically created narratives. I think Gorgui has got a real wild streak in him for no reason at all.

Like I said, it’s nice to be a fan again and I’m looking forward to the continued failures of Thibs in the years to come.

2018 MLB Preview and A Long Rant About Labor Practices

This truly was the longest winter. Putting aside the frigid temperatures across the country and the large quantities of snow falling in the northeast and the mere existence of it in places like northern Florida, this winter dragged. From a strictly baseball standpoint, long periods of time elapsed between free agent signings.

Perhaps as a result of front offices being made up of savvy, economist-types (which is mostly a good thing), almost every team seemed to realize that, for many, many years, they had been paying players for past production. Jake Arrieta, the best free agent starting pitcher on the market, had to wait until the middle of Spring Training to receive a contract offer that he approved of. That contract, for a recent Cy Young award winner, was, essentially, a front-loaded 3 year contract (Philadelphia has two club options at $20 million each). It’s certainly easy to cherry-pick bad contracts, so let’s do that. Two years ago, the offseason following Arrieta’s Cy Young win, Mike Leake signed a 5 year deal worth $80 million. Another way to look at that is that Mike Leake received $5 million more in guaranteed money than Jake Arrieta. What other starting pitchers received more guaranteed money in that cycle (just 2 years ago!) than Jake from Not State Farm did this year? Funny you should ask:

Wei-Yin Chen
Jeff Samardzija
Jordan Zimmermann
Johnny Cueto
Zack Greinke
David Price

I count, at best, 2 guys there who definitely should have gotten paid more than Arrieta, based on expected future production at the time.

And Jake was not alone. Greg Holland saves a lot of baseball games. You can decide how important that sentence is to you. Still, last year he saved 41 games for the Colorado Rockies. He made the All-Star team. And he’s unemployed.

In years past, it is not an exaggeration to say that any one of 8 playoff-contending teams would have thrown 3 years in Greg Holland’s direction. Remember that 2015-16 offseason? Joakim Soria, Ryan Madson, Shawn Kelley, and Tony Sipp all received 3 year guaranteed contracts. None of those pitchers was coming off a season close to Holland’s 2017 season.

In that 2016 offseason, again, just 2 years ago, 8 players received contracts exceeding $80 million in total value. In this offseason, only 4 players received a contract with a total amount greater than $80 million (Eric Hosmer, Yu Darvish, J.D. Martinez, and Justin Upton). Ironically, Justin Upton is on both lists (his 2016 contract had an “opt-out” clause).

The answer to the question, “Why this dramatic shift?” has little to do with the quality of the free agent class. No matter who the top free agents are, teams, in the past, were always more than willing to throw big money at bad ideas. Albert Pujols has been relegated to full-time DH on account of being old and very bad. You see, every single person ages and when you age, your skills diminish. Unfortunately for the Los Angeles Anaheim California Angels, they didn’t take this into account when they gave Albert Pujols a 10 year contract in 2012 to congratulate him for all that he had previously accomplished with the St. Louis Cardinals. The Angels will be paying Pujols roughly $116 million over the next four seasons. Last year, Pujols was one of the absolute worst full-time players in Major League Baseball, posting an embarrassing .672 OPS and a sub-1.00 bWAR. In fact, Pujols hasn’t had an OPS of .800 or above since 2012, ironically when he was a St. Louis Cardinal.

“This is good news for me then!” you say, because you’ve been programmed to support your benevolent business overlords. “With teams spending their money more wisely, manipulating the service time of young superstars to gain an extra year of cheap club-control, I will pay less for tickets and concessions! Huzzah.”

Please, I implore you, let me know when your favorite team’s millionaire or billionaire owner decides that he has enough money and would like to give you a break on your night out to the old ballyard.

Rooting for the business interests of baseball will get you nowhere. You will not save money on your tickets. Your team will not “save” their money they didn’t spend in 2017-18 to spend big on a free agent like Manny Machado or Bryce Harper. If you are a fan of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Tampa Bay Rays, Cincinnati Reds, Miami Marlins (ha), etc. your team will not be entering the Bryce Sweepstakes because they had the impulse control to not throw a four year deal at Greg Holland. The Ronald Acunas and Kris Bryants of the world will continue to be sent to AAA clubs for three weeks at the expense of the immediate on-field success of their team(s) to save some money 6 years down the road. The owner(s) of your favorite team will continue to use their teams as a money-making venture, because, and this may come as a shock, that’s what they are. While you think you’re rooting for a logo and a uniform, you’re really rooting for a rich man’s business venture. It’s like standing outside of a Target, chanting “We Will Rock You.” Poll all 30 ownership groups anonymously and ask a simple question: “Would you rather win a World Series and lose $50 million or miss the playoffs and turn a $50 million profit?” In short, start rooting for the laborers and not for the logos. In baseball, in the classroom, at construction sites. Everywhere.
——————-

And with that…..let’s preview the 2018 season.

AL EAST

Ah, nostalgia. Remember when the AL East was a two-horse race to the top and a three mule race to the bottom? Well, welcome back to the turn of the century! John Bolton’s got a government job again and the Red Sox and Yankees are battling it out for a division crown, while the Blue Jays, Orioles, and Rays are in varying stages of “trying to stay afloat.”

The division crown should go to the Yankees who have the more reliable bullpen and a deeper pool of starting pitchers. Both offenses should score a lot of runs. The Yankees’ offense is probably a hair better, but I truly don’t think that’s where the difference lies. Both teams should win between 95-100 games, given that they’ll play more than 1/3 of their schedule against Tampa, Toronto, and Baltimore.

1. New York Yankees 99-63
2. Boston Red Sox 94-68
3. Baltimore Orioles 80-82
4. Toronto Blue Jays 74-88
5. Tampa Bay Rays 62-100

AL CENTRAL

No team made more free agency splashes, it seems, than the Minnesota Twins, in that they actually got into the pool, signing Lance Lynn, Logan Morrison, Fernando Rodney, and Addison Reed, while also trading for Jake Odorizzi.

Much like the AL East, this is 2-team race between Minnesota and Cleveland. The White Sox, Tigers, and Royals just do not have the pieces to compete this year. Kansas City, frankly, doesn’t have the pieces to compete any time soon.

I think Minnesota closed the gap on Cleveland a bit, but they still lack the starting pitching to get the job done as consistently as the Indians will with Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and Trevor Bauer. And that doesn’t even get into the 8th and 9th innings when Cleveland has Andrew Miller and Cody Allen and the Twins offer up the aforementioned Reed and Rodney.

1. Cleveland Indians 94-68
2. Minnesota Twins 89-73
3. Detroit Tigers 70-92
4. Chicago White Sox 65-97
5. Kansas City Royals 64-98

AL WEST

In trading for Gerrit Cole, the Astros sacrificed their future a bit to get better today. Keep in mind, this is still an organization with Forrest Whitley and Kyle Tucker at the top of their minor league rankings, so they’re not bleeding young talent by any stretch. No team in baseball is better constructed for 2018 playoff success than the Astros. The questions will likely lie with the bullpen, but this is a team with the resources to go out in July and improve their bullpen through trades.

Elsewhere in the battle for the second AL Wild Card spot…

Unlike the other two divisions, each team in the AL West has a legitimate chance to finish second and possibly get a Wild Card berth. Oakland has a vastly improved offense, but may struggle to keep other teams off the board. A similar story resides in Orange County, where the Angels brought back Justin Upton, brought in Ian Kinsler, and signed potential two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, but lack the starting pitching depth or bullpen to make anyone comfortable anointing them a playoff team. Seattle is probably the most balanced of the teams in this division. No aspect of the M’s will wow you, but there are no glaring red flags, save for depth in the rotation after Mike Leake. And Texas is a total wild card. A patchwork rotation. A lineup of mostly low-OBP mashers. A bullpen of taped-together balsa wood. I get the feeling Texas will either finish second or last. And I tend to think it’s the latter.

1. Houston Astros 103-59
2. Seattle Mariners 86-76
3. Oakland Athletics 82-82
4. Anaheim Angels 79-83
5. Texas Rangers 75-87

AL Playoffs

Boston over Minnesota in the wild card game because Chris Sale v. Minnesota-By-Committee is a battle Sale wins every time.

ALDS: Houston over Boston in 4, New York over Cleveland in 5

ALCS: Houston over New York in 5

WASHINGTON NATIONALS

2017 ended frustratingly for the Washington Nationals. This is a fairly common refrain. Simply plug in a different year and the result remains both the same and true.

2018 will likely end in a similar fashion. The odds just sort of work out that way. For teams like the White Sox, your goal in 2018 is to keep your excellent young starting pitchers (Reynaldo Lopez, Lucas Giolito, Carson Fulmer, Michael Kopech, Dylan Covey, Alec Hansen, and Dane Dunning) healthy. That’s really it. You’d love for as many of those pitchers as possible to be healthy going into 2019 when the goal should be to sneak into the playoffs riding the arms of 4 or 5 electric mid-20s pitchers.

For a team like the Washington Nationals, 2019 doesn’t really matter. At the end of the 2018 season, franchise cornerstone Bryce Harper will be an unrestricted free agent. Lose Harper and you’re losing about 5-7 wins above replacement. You’re also losing a major attraction and a marketable young star. And you’re doing it at a time when you’ve bled organizational depth (past Victor Robles and Juan Soto) trying to put a World Series winner onto the field.

There will be some/many Washington Nationals “fans” who will expect Harper to take a hometown discount. Say the Nationals lose in the NLDS this season. Those “fans” will take nothing less than Bryce Harper accepting a one year deal to go for it one more time. And when he doesn’t take that one year deal, and instead signs a 7 year deal with ___________ (fill in the blank…it doesn’t matter), he’ll get booed when he comes back to DC. And that sucks.

The repeated failings of the Washington Nationals in the postseason (or rampant regular season success depending on through which prism you choose to view all of this), do not fall solely on the shoulders of Bryce Harper, just as it didn’t fall on the shoulders of Drew Storen or Jordan Zimmermann or whomever was the scapegoat in that Dodgers series (honestly, I forget). Everyone gets blame. Mike Rizzo gets blame. Davey Johnson, Matt Williams, and Dusty Baker get blame. And yes, each player gets a varying degree of blame.

Knowing that 2018 is essentially a “now or never” season (I prefer “shit or get off the pot” season), the Nationals remained largely inert during the winter months. There was no success in improving the starting pitching from 2017. There was no success in improving the bullpen (in fact, I think the bullpen as constructed today is slightly worse than the one from last October). And there was no success in improving an already very good offense, albeit not perfect and not the best in the National League. The Washington Nationals will take the field in Cincinnati, Ohio on Thursday (Friday…stupid rain) looking very similar to how they looked on October 12, 2017. Gone will be Jayson Werth. Healthy will be Adam Eaton. But that’s it. In theory, Gio Gonzalez will still start a potential Game 3 in the playoffs. Brandon Kintzler is still the 7th inning guy. Enny Romero is the best left handed option out of the pen (non-Sean Doolittle division). There’s a different manager in the dugout, and that should make the Nationals situationally better. But really, that’s window dressing. It’s the most important season in franchise history. And if that history is an indicator of what’s to come, well, set your radars to “disappointed.”

THE REST OF THE NL EAST

I sincerely think that the Philadelphia Phillies can make a run at the playoffs this year. I also think that no other team, even the White Sox, is poised to make the jump from bad to very good as quickly as Philadelphia. I loved the Jake Arrieta signing from a Philadelphia Phillies business perspective, because given the talent already on the field in South Philly and the talent scattered throughout their minor league system (but especially at High-A Clearwater), 2020 should be the year that Philadelphia contends for a World Series.

As for this year, there’s something to be excited about at nearly every turn for the Phillies. Though they overpaid for Carlos Santana, adding a high-OBP, top of the order hitter will only help the development of Rhys Hoskins. Elsewhere, the Phillies were not overly cautious with rookie Scott Kingrey, signing him to a long-term extension and putting him on the Opening Day roster. That should pay immediate dividends and give the new manager some flexibility in how he constructs his lineup day-to-day.

I’m excited to see what Gabe Kapler can do as the most advanced metrics-inclined manager we’ve seen in the modern game. If he succeeds, it will change dugouts across the sport. And if he fails, well, it’ll give the baseball dinosaurs one last opportunity to crow about the importance of moving runners and “the little things.”

Wrapping up this overlong capsule of the NL East, don’t expect the Atlanta Braves to contend in 2018, but look forward to the arrival of Ronald Acuna Jr. in mid-April and, further down the road, look forward to their battling with the Phillies for baseball supremacy in 2020.

The Mets and Marlins are also baseball teams. Though, in the case of the Marlins, the jury remains in deliberation.

1. Washington Nationals 91-71
2. Philadelphia Phillies 85-77
3. New York Mets 79-83
4. Atlanta Barves 78-84
5. Miami Marlins 44-118

NL CENTRAL

The Chicago Cubs are going to win this division. The amount of depth that the Cubs possess cannot be matched by any other team here. That goes for starting pitching. That goes for the batting order. It probably even goes for bullpen depth, though that’s more a result of no one in this division having a particularly strong and deep bullpen.

Chicago’s lineup is the best in the National League and I’d argue the best in baseball, 1-8. And there’s flexibility there. You have super-sub Ben Zobrist who can pinch hit and play at 6 different positions. Then there’s Albert Almora Jr. who would be a starter on nearly every other team in the Majors. On this team, he’s playing behind Kyle Schwarber and Ian Happ in most situations, though he will fill in nicely for the former against left-handed starting pitchers. And at the corners, you’ve got the sport’s most dangerous 1-2 punch in Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo. And they signed Yu Darvish this offseason, as well as Tyler Chatwood, who I expect to be a big upgrade for them in the number 5 spot.

Up I-94, the Milwaukee Brewers made a number of changes, seemingly in the span of a few hours in January. Ryan Braun moves to first base to make room for Christian Yelich, acquired via trade from the AAA Miami Marlins. Meanwhile, Lorenzo Cain joined on a fairly baffling 5 year deal. The problem for Milwaukee is a pretty glaring one though and that’s a real lack of starting pitchers. Chase Anderson and Zach Davies are a perfectly fine set of Major League starting pitchers. They are not Yu Darvish and Jon Lester. They’re not Clayton Kershaw and literally any other living person. And yet, Anderson and Davies will need to perform beyond expectation to keep this rotation (rounded out by Jhoulys Chacin, Brent Suter, and an injured Jimmy Nelson) afloat.

Also cashing in on the Miami Marlins being a living embarrassment were the St. Louis Cardinals, who added Marcell Ozuna, but still have a concerning lack of power in their lineup and, like Milwaukee, some real question marks in the rotation.

Cincinnati and Pittsburgh have no desire to contend this year, so we won’t talk about them. Likewise, their fans should not go to their games.

1. Chicago Cubs 99-63
2. St. Louis Cardinals 88-74
3. Milwaukee Brewers 84-78
4. Pittsburgh Pirates 69-93
5. Cincinnati Reds 65-97

NL WEST

Though their field flooded with human excrement on Tuesday night, everything else seems to be going mostly fine for the Dodgers. Matt Kemp is back and looks more like a baseball player and less like the assistant manager at an Arby’s. Yasiel Puig also looks like a fit human. Clayton Kershaw is still a Dodger, and other than a broken bone to Justin Turner’s hand, everyone else is healthy following a season that took LA within 27 outs of a World Series. This is LA’s division to run away with. Can anyone catch them?

Maybe.

But probably not.

The Diamondbacks are intriguing because they have five good starting pitchers. The Rockies are intriguing because they built a super bullpen and their hitters still get to hit baseballs in Denver 81 days per year. San Francisco is not terribly intriguing, though they added Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria to a team that scored roughly 45 total runs last season, so they can only be a help. And the San Diego Padres are currently slated to play the 2018 Major League season.

The fatal flaw for each is pretty obvious. Arizona is light-hitting, outside of Paul Goldschmidt. Take away JD Martinez’s mid-season acquisition and they were, statistically, a below average Major League team at the plate in 2017. They’re a team that will always hit a lot of doubles and triples because their ballpark is a comical place. But when it comes to home run production, without Martinez, they would have been a few notches below the Kansas City Royals last year. Note: JD Martinez was replaced in right field by Jarrod Dyson who has 12 home runs in his 1900+ career plate appearances.

Colorado’s fatal flaw is the only one that can’t be immediately fixed. What makes them so intriguing is also what makes them so scary to bet on. The Rockies have good young pitchers in Jon Gray, Jeff Hoffman, Kyle Freeland, and Tyler Anderson. The issue is that it’s hard to limit runs in the thin air of Denver, CO, as well as the entire Pacific Coast League. Super Bullpen or not.

A quick note on the Padres who I made fun of earlier. They will be bad. They will be very bad. They threw a lot of money at a first baseman who is not an all-world player by any metric. Eric Hosmer struggled to hit for power in Kansas City. He will surely struggle to hit for power in San Diego. That said, the Padres have a very exciting farm system and if AJ Preller has an ounce of impulse control in the next two years, he’ll retain a lot of that talent and be able to build a fun, young, exciting team, centered around future household names Fernando Tatis Jr., Luis Urias, and MacKenzie Gore. But for now, get your house familiar with Freddy Galvis, Chase Headley 2.0, and Matt Szczur.

Los Angeles Dodgers 91-71
Colorado Rockies 85-77
Arizona Diamondbacks 82-82
San Francisco Giants 77-85
San Diego Padres 65-97

NL Playoffs

Philadelphia Phillies beat Colorado Rockies in one-game playoff to determine 2nd NL Wild Card.

Philadelphia Phillies beat St. Louis Cardinals in actual Wild Card game

NLDS: Chicago over Philadelphia in 3, Washington over Los Angeles in 5

NLCS: Chicago over Washington in 6

WORLD SERIES

Houston over Chicago in 6.

Sure, I could have picked something cute like the Twins over the Phillies, but Chicago and Houston are the two best teams in baseball right now, today, March 28. Trades can and will happen in June, July, and August. So all of this is just fun and games.

I give Houston the edge because of their rotation. I’ve been guilty of falling in love with deep starting rotations before (Philadelphia’s Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Oswalt one comes to mind), but the thing with Houston is that their offense is probably better than their rotation. And their rotation is baseball’s best. The only thing that derails Houston is a long-term injury to Carlos Correa or Jose Altuve. Outside of that, I see baseball’s first repeat World Series champion in 18 years.

AWARDS

AL Rookie of the Year: Gleyber Torres (IF/New York Yankees)
NL Rookie of the Year: Ronald Acuna Jr. (OF/Atlanta Braves)

AL Cy Young: Chris Sale (Boston Red Sox)
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles Dodgers)

AL MVP: Carlos Correa (SS/Houston Astros)
NL MVP: Jason Heyward (OF/Chicago Cubs)

….I kid!

NL MVP: Bryce Harper (OF/Washington Nationals)

———

And for what it’s worth, I think Bryce will sign with the Cubs next offseason. But in the interim, I’ll enjoy being able to watch him in DC for as long as either of us are in this swamp.

2017 Under 25 MLB All-Stars

This is the fourth installment of this endeavor and the 2017 edition will see a lot of changes. Bryce Harper is the only eligible player from the 2014 version who is a shoe-in to make this team. Missing the cut, because of the “25 by the last game of the regular season” rule are Mike Trout and Carlos Martinez.

Much can change in a few years in baseball. We sadly lost Yordano Ventura and the great Jose Fernandez within the past year. On a less tragic front, players like Rougned Odor and Manny Machado have largely regressed at the plate.

The purpose behind this project, I’ve found, is to look back a few years later and wonder things like, “Why did I think Ian Krol would be good?” and “Was there ever a point where Derek Norris was a better catcher than Sal Perez?”

And so, let’s skim this now and look back in two years.

The only real rule (besides the age requirement) is that for a player to be eligible at a position, they need to have played the majority of games in the 2017 season (at whatever level of baseball) at that position. Example: I love Xander Bogaerts and he’s played third base before. But he’s a shortstop now. So he has to compete with Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, etc.

CATCHER

Willson Contreras (Chicago Cubs): This is arguably the weakest position both in the Majors, but also in the Minors, with only 3 catchers on Keith Law’s midseason Top 50 prospect list (Insider required).

Statements about shallow talent pools aside, Contreras is a nice choice here. He has perhaps the strongest arm (and best snap throw) of anyone in the game behind the dish. At the plate, he’s got considerable pop for the position (.484 SLG as of this writing). And for a relatively inexperienced big league player (he’s played exactly 162 games), he’s not a horrific free swinger.

2017 bWAR: 2.5


FIRST BASEMAN

Cody Bellinger (Los Angeles Dodgers): No-brainers don’t get any more cranially vacant than this pick. The presumptive NL Rookie of the Year, at just 22 years old, has 26 home runs in just 325 plate appearances. And while you might expect a 22 year old rookie power hitter to lack plate discipline, Bellinger has an OBP of .351 (to go along with his +.600 SLG).

2017 bWAR: 2.6


SECOND BASEMAN

Jonathan Schoop (Baltimore Orioles): I never thought that Schoop would become a patient enough hitter to hold offensive value. And I definitely didn’t think he would become a potential 30+ HR guy (at 21 right now). And yet, last year, he hit 25 and this year, he’s on pace to well out-do that number. He’s still not walking as much as you’d like a hitter to, but you can’t argue with the production (.900 OPS). He barely makes the cutoff as he doesn’t turn 26 until mid-October.

2017 bWAR: 2.7

THIRD BASEMAN

Jose Ramirez (Cleveland Indians): The Indians called Ramirez up in 2013 as a 20 year old and he looked like the real deal in 14 plate appearances. Then 2014 happened. And 2015.

But then, Ramirez turned the corner. Maybe Cleveland promoted him too soon. Maybe the adjustments he made at the plate really made a difference. Whatever it is, Ramirez isn’t just the best 25 and under third baseman in baseball, he is the best player at the position, period. (RIP SPICEY!)

He hits for some power. He doesn’t strike out. He gets on base at a .383 clip and he steals some bases if you like that nonsense. And he’s a switch hitter who can actually hit from both sides of the plate. There’s nothing to dislike about Jose Ramirez.

2017 bWAR: 3.4

SHORTSTOP

Carlos Correa (Houston Astros): Before he went down with a thumb injury, an argument (a good one even) could be made that Correa was the guy to supplant Mike Trout as the AL MVP. He’s a 22 year old with a .400 OBP, 166 OPS+, and above average defense at a position that most think he’s too big to play.

2017 bWAR: 4.0

LEFT FIELD

Michael Conforto (New York Mets): Until very recently, the Mets’ inept, bumbling fool of a manager (Terry Collins. Hi Terry!) was platooning Conforto with assorted pieces of driftwood.

Conforto, for his part, has made it impossible for his incalculably bad manager to bench him this year. The All-Star has a .400+ OBP, 18 homers, and a 153 OPS+. And sure, defensively he is not great (to be generous), but the bat more than makes up for the negative dWAR.

2017 bWAR: 2.8

CENTER FIELD

Christian Yelich (Miami Marlins): At no point is Christian Yelich going to blow you away with his numbers. He’s simply just a really good hitter. The power is likely never going to develop, but his ability to hit to all fields and his patience at the plate (.362 OBP) make him a useful player in absolutely any lineup. And he’s versatile in the field. That is to say, he’s not a great defensive centerfielder….But anyway…

2017 bWAR: 1.4

RIGHT FIELD

Bryce Harper (Washington Nationals): With apologies to a certain RF in the Bronx and another one in Boston, Harper owns this spot until he’s no longer eligible.

Harper is producing at the MVP pace he set in 2015, after an injury plagued 2016 that saw him *only* hit 24 homers and produce to the tune of a 115 OPS+ as a 23 year old. Perhaps the most impressive thing about Harper is that while he swings out of his shoes more often than not, he’s drawing plenty of walks and has become a very good hitter against lefties, driving the ball to left field when needed (and hitting moon shots other times). He’s a joy to watch (all these guys are).

2017 bWAR: 4.6


DESIGNATED HITTER

Aaron Judge (New York Yankees): Remember kids, pitchers should never, ever hit. Who’d you rather see bat? Aaron Judge or Aaron Sanchez? Yes, it was fun when Bartolo Colon hit a homer. It’s less fun when he strikes out on three pitches.

On to Judge, who deserves every single bit of recognition and praise that he’s receiving.

In a 2016 cup of coffee, Judge looked overmatched, with a swiss cheese swing (lotta holes). This year, he’s transformed his entire swing into this masterpiece of quiet, soul-destroying power. His swing is so easy now, but generates the kind of power that I imagine only Josh Gibson and a non-drunk Babe Ruth were able to generate. And the numbers speak to that. .434 On-base. 180 OPS+. 32 home runs. The 25 year old rookie has the potential to hit 50 homers. And if he does that, he’s a lock to win the AL MVP.

2017 bWAR: 34 million (it’s actually 5.4)

BATTING ORDER

3B Jose Ramirez
SS Carlos Correa
RF Bryce Harper
DH Aaron Judge
1B Cody Bellinger
LF Michael Conforto
2B Jonathan Schoop
C Willson Contreras
CF Christian Yelich

BENCH PLAYERS

Gary Sanchez (Catcher/New York Yankees)
Francisco Lindor (Shortstop/Cleveland Indians)
Corey Seagar (Shortstop/Los Angeles Dodgers)
Kris Bryant (Third Baseman/Chicago Cubs)
Mookie Betts (Right Field/Boston Red Sox)

Yes, a 14 man offense defies the conventional norms of baseball, but what, are you going to leave Francisco Lindor off this team in favor of a 7th bullpen arm?

If I were to fudge around with my own rules to put the best team on the field, I’d move Conforto to CF and play either Bryant or Harper in LF (and then move Betts to RF if Harper is moving across the field). The defense would definitely suffer, but the offense would score 16 runs per game.

Having 2 shortstops might seem excessive, but Seager is big enough that third base is a perfectly appropriate position for him, as needed. And Bryant eventually profiles as a 1B anyway in my mind.

And yes, I’m well aware that this team lacks Miguel Sano, Andrew Benintendi, Manny Machado, and I’m sure many others that I’m forgetting. This just speaks to the offensive era that we live in. And this team doesn’t have a single prospect (Yoan Moncada, Rafael Devers) within sniffing distance. This is, in all the years I’ve done this exercise, the deepest offensive talent pool. Which brings us to this horrific transition…

PITCHING

Whereas the offensive portion of this team is a laundry list of guys who are already the best players at their positions, the pitching portion is much more about projection. Of the top 30 starting pitchers in bWAR, only 3 are eligible for this list. And two of those pitchers likely project as relievers long-term, at least according to the baseball minds whose insights I value the most.

For the below rotation, I’m not going to include 2017 WARs. In some cases, it will do them a disservice.

STARTING PITCHERS

Noah Syndergaard (SP/New York Mets)
Michael Fulmer (SP/Detroit Tigers)
Jose Berrios (SP/Minnesota Twins)
Jameson Taillon (SP/Pittsburgh Pirates)
Lance McCullers (SP/Houston Astros)

The above list is how I would pick them. McCullers might be my favorite pitcher in baseball, but he’s still really a two-pitch pitcher. Granted, both of those pitches (4-seam and curveball) are plus-pitches. But until he can throw his changeup with more consistency, he’ll have his doubters about his long-term sustainability as a starting pitcher.

Jameson Taillon is a great story, having battled back from injuries and cancer to rejoin the Pirates rotation and really, not miss a beat. He’s probably about a year and a half behind on development because of a 2014 torn UCL. That said, he’s got an ace-like arsenal and has the highest ceiling of anyone here not named Noah Syndergaard.

Jose Berrios is an undersized starting pitcher with a multi-pitch arsenal, who struggled mightily in his debut in 2016, but has really turned the corner in 2017. His strand rate is lower than where you’d like it to be (~72%, 71st out of those pitchers with 70+IP). I’d expect his K/9 rate to increase as he develops a better feel for his arsenal. Again, Berrios’ placement here goes back to projection.

Michael Fulmer, however, isn’t about projection. He is who he is. He gets a lot of ground ball outs. He doesn’t strike out a lot of hitters. Hell, his ERA and FIP are identical. But he’s a good pitcher without a lot of question marks. Do I think he’s a long term ace? No. But do I think he’s a rotational fixture for the next decade? I do.

Thor is the easiest choice of the bunch, injury aside. He’s a hoss. And he’s likely someone who will become more of a pitcher than a thrower. His arsenal is real and deep and his production tells the story of who he is. He’s the ace of this staff.

RELIEF PITCHERS
Luis Severino (RHP/New York Yankees)
Corey Knebel (RHP/Milwaukee Brewers)
Roberto Osuna (RHP/Toronto Blue Jays)
Archie Bradley (RHP/Arizona Diamondbacks)
Alex Claudio (LHP/Texas Rangers)
Cam Bedrosian (RHP/Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, California)

Ending with relief pitchers isn’t a good way to seal the deal. The guys you see here are all replaceable. Relief pitchers are the least reliable of any player in baseball. Today, Alex Claudio is a groundball-enducing machine. Tomorrow, who knows?

One note that I’d like to end on: Luis Severino. Severino is in the Cy Young conversation in the American League. Chris Sale is likely going to win the award, but that shouldn’t take away from how good Severino has been. However, he is one of the two aforementioned projected relief pitchers (along with McCullers). The reason why Severino is here instead of McCullers is because McCullers’ second pitch (his curveball, which he actually uses more than his fastball) is an objectively better pitch than Severino’s slider. Each use their changeup about 10% of the time, just for fun. Ultimately, I’d rather have a fastball/slider guy pitching long-relief out of the bullpen than a fastball/curveball guy.

Two fun notes: Robbie Ray missed out on this list by one day. Cam Bedrosian made it by one day.

Think I got something wrong? Hate me in general? Tweet me @jason_botelho or comment below. Thanks as always for reading.

How A Man From New York Made A Man From Massachusetts Fall In Love With A Team From Los Angeles

When I was a junior in college (so many, many moons ago), I had a less-than-enjoyable roommate experience. He was very quiet, beyond introversion. He really did not speak much. Our interests barely intersected, if at all. He preferred dance music. I listened to…well, lets pretend that I was really into early 1980s hardcore and not, say, The Early November. I loved sports. He did not. I played sports video games. He definitely did not. I did not drink. He did. I was a communications major, focusing on broadcasting. He wanted to be a city planner.

This background is provided as a way of saying we didn’t spend a lot of nights sitting around the proverbial fire, singing campfire songs. Because I worked a full-time job in addition to being a full-time student, and because of my general aversion to socializing with drunk people, I would spend a lot of time alone. I was, by no means, a “loner.” But I would sit outside of my dorm with the other smokers, dragging on clove after clove. I would watch Seinfeld reruns and have AIM conversations with my high school friends in far off places. But on most nights at 10:00 p.m., I would have a date.

I grew up with baseball in my blood. My grandfather introduced me to the sport and I fell in love with boxscores, which probably explains my statheadedness now as a fully-formed (mostly) adult. But I grew up in Massachusetts and without cable television. I didn’t know National League baseball like a 12 year-old version of me would today. In fact, I wonder whether there is that delineation for a young baseball fan today.

The Los Angeles Dodgers always seemed like a mystery team to me. They weren’t very good in the days of my youth, so I never really got a chance to watch them play, as that only opportunity would have come in the playoffs. But I had seen pictures of Dodger Stadium and really bad Sega Genesis renderings of it and something about that outfield view and that bright, beautiful royal blue meant something to me. They were a baseball team, sure. But they just seemed, I don’t know, different.

I knew about Vincent Edward Scully, the team’s longtime broadcaster. I had heard his call of Kirk Gibson’s World Series Game 1 homer off of Dennis Eckersley. And I had heard his call of Hank Aaron’s 715th home run. But I had never listened to him call a game. Which, as an aspiring broadcaster, was probably the greatest disservice I could have done to myself.

And so, as a lonely college junior, with an MLB.TV subscription, I started watching Dodger games. And I started listening to Vin. Or maybe those sentences should be reversed.

At first, I didn’t have as much interest in rooting for the Dodgers. I certainly wasn’t a fan. Yet, nearly every night, for at least a few innings, I would sit at my computer, headphones on, and listen to this unique voice describe baseball like I had never heard it before. I learned factoids about players that no other announcer would even think to offer and certainly no boxscore would ever include.

Years would pass, but I would never lose that connection to Scully, which developed into a connection to the Dodgers and ultimately a love of and for the city of Los Angeles. I remember my first trip to Dodger Stadium, hearing a taped message from Vin over the PA system, and thinking, “this is more of a bucketlist item than I ever could have imagined.” I had spent countless hours in my early 20s “at” Dodger Stadium. Listening to Scully and the way he knew when to let the crowd speak made me feel, and I imagine many others feel, like we too were there. But actually being there was different. Actually looking out at the San Gabriel Mountains. Actually eating a Dodger dog. Actually looking up at the 5 tiers of early 1960s architectural beauty; it made me appreciate it all that much more. And since then, I have to say, I’ve become a fan of the Dodgers (albeit not at the expense of the Washington Nationals…).

Sunday afternoon will mark the last time Vin Scully will call a game from Dodger Stadium. He’s been calling Dodger games since the 1950s. And for many, many years, he’s done so without a color commentator.

The experience of listening to Vin can be described, but it can’t do it justice. There is no one, has never been anyone, and truly, will never, ever be anyone who mans the broadcast booth in the way that Vin Scully does.

He made many a quiet, boring, lonely college night better, simply by saying “It’s time for Dodger baseball.” And even now, those five words can improve any night for me, no matter how good. His voice has been such an important part of my life for the past decade that I honestly don’t know what baseball will be like for me without him.

What I do know is that I would not be the baseball fan that I am without him. I wouldn’t love Los Angeles like I do, without him. And I wouldn’t necessarily root for the Dodgers like I do, without him. Which is all the more interesting because Vin never makes it about the Dodgers. There are never any “we’s” in his commentary. He’s worked for the Dodgers in 7 different decades, but he considers himself no more a part of the team than the fan sitting in Section 114 should.

But to me, Vin is the Dodgers. He is west coast baseball. And he is the standard-bearer for his profession.

There are still some games left for Vin, as he’ll make a rare road trip and finish in San Francisco next Sunday, but for me, this Sunday’s game, his last at Dodger Stadium, will be special. Baseball, and thus, my life, will never be the same without him, welcoming me, a hardened, sarcastic, bitter East Coaster, into one of the most beautiful settings in baseball, with those magical 5 words. Sunday, it will indeed be time for Dodger baseball.

2016 NBA Draft Thoughts

Last September, I made the decision to cease watching college sports. Since the time I was a small child, I lived and breathed college football and college basketball. But over time, given my very progressive leanings, I began having a harder and harder time rationalizing my support for an institution as corrupt as the NCAA.

Ignoring college football was a challenge that got easier as the season progressed and by the time the college basketball season began, it was pretty easy to forego watching the exploitation of 19 year old black men for the financial gains of old white men. (I promise this won’t be about politics any more)

NBA Draft night was always a fun night for me. I didn’t just watch college basketball. I studied the game. I had informed opinions on 6’5″ guards from Temple. No one would ever mistake me for a scout. I would never claim to have that expertise. But, to toot my own horn, I saw guys like Kawhi Leonard and Damian Lillard long before the Draft and felt strongly that each would be franchise players.

But here we are tonight. Most of the guys who are going to be picked tonight, I have never seen play a basketball game. I’ve never watched Ben Simmons, Brandon Ingram, Jaylen Brown, etc. I remember watching Buddy Hield and being impressed with his range and I remember Kris Dunn at Providence being a great defender. But for all intents and purposes, Ben Simmons might as well be Ante Zizic to me.

And you know what? That’s really fun.

The absence of college basketball in my life brought me closer to the NBA than I’ve probably ever been. I’m excited to see these guys who I’ve read a lot about in the past few months play. I’m excited to see where they go. And, as a Celtics fan, I’m really excited to see what Danny Ainge can pull off.

Some loose thoughts:

1.) Boston offers Philadelphia this year’s 3rd, 16th, and 23rd picks, along with Brooklyn’s first round pick next year for the #1 overall pick (and drafts Brandon Ingram). Who says no? Does Philadelphia really pass up the opportunity to have the top two picks in next season’s draft? Does Boston sell all of their valuable assets for one 19 year old? I don’t see a reason why either team says “no” to that. And as a Celtics fan, I’d be thrilled with it.

2.) I’m fascinated by Marquese Chriss. From what I’ve read, he was an absolute disaster as a freshman at Washington. And now, I’m seeing him as a Top 5 pick. This is why I love the NBA Draft.

3.) Ben Simmons seems like a fascinating basketball player. A 6’10” point forward in the mold of Kevin Durant. Just, you know, if Kevin Durant couldn’t shoot. But he can pass so that’s something. I don’t love the idea of Philadelphia drafting another 6’10” player. I don’t understand what they’re doing.

4.) The Lakers getting Brandon Ingram with the second pick makes me very nervous. That’s a guy who is destined to be a great NBA player.

5.) Realistically, if Boston stays as 3, I’d be more than happy with any of Hield, Dunn, or Bosnian PF Dragan Bender.

6.) Buddy Hield’s suit should win awards.

7.) I’ve read a lot about how this is a weak draft. I disagree a bit. I look at this draft as having a superstar talent (Ingram), a potential all-star (Hield), and a number of really good players who will have long careers as role players. I”ve written before that I think NBA roster construction is fairly easy. Unless you have a LeBron James, you need to do what San Antonio has done and fill holes. Wing defenders, rebounders, outside shooters, passers. If you can fill those four holes, you’re going to be a playoff team. So guys like Denzel Valentine and Tyler Ulis has a real place in the NBA and would be much higher picks if I’m in a draft room than the typical “no role, but he could be GREAT” prospect.

8.) I’m fascinated by Thon Maker. I’m not sure that he’ll ever be anything in the NBA. But if he’s there when Boston or Toronto are using their 3rd and 2nd first round picks, respectively, why not take a flier on a guy who is as boom-or-bust as anyone we’ve seen in as long as I can remember.