2016 MLB Preview

/ Jason / Leave a comment

Narrative intros are fun and all, but let’s just skip the amuse-bouche, shall we, and get to the entree.

AL EAST
I wrote in my 2015 preview that all five teams had a fatal flaw and that holds true in 2016 too. Toronto’s rotation is very thin after Marcus Stroman and (maybe) Marco Estrada. The Yankees have a lineup that reeks of regression, from Jacoby Ellsbury to Carlos Beltran to Alex Rodriguez to Mark Teixeira. And to boot, they will be without two of their fearsome relieving troika for at least the first month of the season (Aroldis Chapman: suspension, Andrew Miller: injury (NOTE: Miller says he will pitch through his wrist injury…). The Orioles wish they had a starting pitching situation like Toronto’s. The Red Sox have a Maybach, in David Price, riding on four shitty used tires from a salvage yard just hoping not to fall off the car by mid-April. And the Tampa Bay Rays have an offense that wouldn’t look so bad if Logan Morrison, Logan Forsythe, and Brad Miller were any good.

Last year, I took the team with the least glaring issue (Toronto) to win the division. Little did I know that the Blue Jays would prove me right, but only after making two blockbuster trade deadline moves. This year, I like the Yankees, insomuch as I am contractually obligated to pick one of these teams to make the playoffs.

1. New York Yankees
2. Toronto Blue Jays
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Tampa Bay Rays
5. Baltimore Orioles

AL CENTRAL
Baseball’s most wide-open division, 1-5. You could make a reasonable-enough argument for any of these five teams to win the division. Cleveland has the powerhouse rotation. Kansas City has the experience (oh, and the really good defense and bullpen). Chicago has Chris Sale and some other guys. Detroit has a very good offense, albeit one that probably needs to get it done quickly if they are ever going to win a World Series. And Minnesota has more prospects than Alicia Vikander at speed-dating.

Cleveland will have trouble scoring runs with any great proclivity, especially with the corner outfield spots being manned by Rajai Davis and Marlon Byrd to start the season. Francisco Lindor is a special talent, but he doesn’t have the kind of home run pop that his fellow special SS talent Carlos Correa does. All of that said, Cleveland’s rotation and bullpen might be enough to keep them in games that clubs like the Orioles and Red Sox would lose because of who they’re pitching in their 2-5 spots.

For Kansas City, I feel as though, at some point, not having good starting pitchers has to catch up to you. And let’s be clear: the Royals do not have good starting pitchers. I’m sure Chris Young and Kris Medlen are fine people, but for either of them to be starting pitchers on a World Series contender just seems…wrong?

Chicago and Detroit aren’t worth me burning myself out here. The White Sox made some nice offensive upgrades, but their bullpen is undesirable. Detroit added Jordan Zimmermann and Justin Upton to a team that struggled quite a bit in 2015. I’m not sure that at this stage in their careers, moving to the American League and to a pitcher’s park, respectively, will really do much to boost either’s contribution. If we just assume that Zimmermann and Upton are taking over for straight replacement-level players, we are only talking about a combined 7.5 wins. That gets Detroit to a .500 record. And while I realize that isn’t exactly how WAR works, it’s important to also remember that WAR doesn’t work the other way. Simply adding a name like Justin Upton does not guarantee success. It sounds really nice, but if you’re not upgrading elsewhere in the lineup, then you are what you were, but just a little better.

Minnesota is very, very intriguing. Between Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, and Jose Berrios, they’ve got the makings of a World Series contender. Only, perhaps in 2018. Once Berrios replaces Ricky Nolasco or Tom Milone, the Twins will be a must-watch club every fifth day. Until then, you’ve got some exciting young guys, an All-Star second baseman (Brian Dozier), a former All-Star in Joe Mauer, and some less-than complimentary pieces. That doesn’t make them boring, certainly, but it also doesn’t make them a contender quite yet.

1. Cleveland Indians
2. Kansas City Royals
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Minnesota Twins
5. Detroit Tigers

AL WEST
Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros.

Now that I’ve gotten that out of my system…

This is a two horse race between the Texas Rangers and a club I have previously mentioned. Texas has the potential to hit teams with a 1-2 combo unlike any other in this division with Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish. After them, it’s like Russian Roulette but there are extra bullets in the chamber and you’re the only one playing. The Astros have the reigning Cy Young winner in Dallas Keuchel, an electric prospect in Lance McCullers, and a group of Major League-quality veteran starters (Collin McHugh, Doug Fister, and Mike Fiers).

Texas’ offense is probably deeper and better, all-around, than Houston’s, but the Astros probably have the best two players in Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa.

Look, there are no perfect baseball teams. Even the Cubs aren’t perfect. But Houston and Texas are really, really good. Ultimately, their goodness and the rest of this division’s mediocrity to poorness won’t mean much because both will likely make the playoffs. In fact, I would almost expect them to finish 1, 2 in terms of best record in the AL, after feasting on mediocre Seattle, subpar Los Angeles, and hilariously, sublimely awful Oakland all year.

1. Texas Rangers
2. Houston Astros
3. Seattle Mariners
4. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, California Angels
5. Oakland Athletics

AL PLAYOFFS
Wild Card: Houston over Kansas City
A revenge win for the Astros after Kansas City staved off elimination in their 2015 ALDS series. A rested Dallas Keuchel is better than anything the Royals could currently throw out there, even given Kansas City’s recent dominance in must-win games.

ALDS: Houston over Texas, Cleveland over New York
It’s hard to bet against a team that puts Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish on the bump twice in a Best-of-5, but I have that much faith in Lance McCullers and Collin McHugh. Add in the expected midseason call-up of AJ Reed at first base and I think Houston will have leveled the offensive playing field with Texas.

Cleveland’s rotation wipes the Yankees out of the playoffs in a blur

ALCS: Houston over Cleveland
Here is where Cleveland’s run-scoring issues and 1-3 rotation become a problem. None of Kluber, Carrasco, or Salazar will have ever pitched this late into a season. I can easily see Terry Francona eschewing a Trevor Bauer playoff start for throwing Salazar back out there, only to see a tiring young arm getting battered by the playoff-tested Astros. There’s a lot to be said about rotation depth in the playoffs. Getting a big start or two from your number 3 or four starter is key. Collin McHugh and Doug Fister are veteran starters and groundball pitchers who can neutralize a team that struggles to score runs, like the Indians.

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NL EAST
We aren’t going to spend much time talking about the Braves or Phillies. Both actually had productive offseasons, but that productivity won’t start to pay dividends until next season, at the earliest.

For Miami, I see a team with absolutely no identity. Never fully committed to a rebuild. Never fully committed to paying the cost to succeed, the Marlins are, as always, who we thought they were. I expect their exciting young outfield (Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, and Giancarlo Stanton) to be far more productive in 2016 than they were last season. But is Dee Gordon really an All-Star? Was Wei-Yin Chen worth that contract? Will they trade Jose Fernandez, midseason, to a prospect-laden playoff team in need of a boost (Kansas City and the Dodgers come to mind)? Who really knows? The bullpen is paper thin and the starting rotation beyond Fernandez and Chen is AAA.

To steal a tagline from this season of the Real Housewives of Beverly Hills, the Washington Nationals are an enigma wrapped in a riddle and cash. This offseason they targeted Ben Zobrist to play second base. They ended up with Daniel Murphy. They made a push for Yoenis Cespedes. Instead they traded for Ben Revere. They replaced Jordan Zimmermann with a guy they demoted to the bullpen at the start of last season. And they hired Bud Black to be their manager, which is why Dusty Baker will be in the dugout on Opening Day.

Meanwhile, Stephen Strasburg is a free agent at the end of the season and if you think that he is going to re-sign with the Nats, I have a beautiful oceanfront property to sell you in eastern South Dakota. But will the Nats trade Strasburg at the trade deadline if they are 10 games behind the Mets? Of course not. Because this is the team that thought Ben Zobrist and Yoenis Cespedes wanted to play in front of 21,000 people a night, instead of playing at Wrigley Field and in New York City, respectively.

The Nationals are their own enigma. Or maybe they’re a riddle. They certainly have plenty of cash. It’s just that I’m not sure they know what to do with that cash. They didn’t want to give it to a very competent manager. But then they gave a lot of it to a second baseman who can’t defend his or any position on the diamond. They didn’t bother working on a long-term extension with reigning NL MVP Bryce Harper (at least publicly). And they didn’t seem to make any passing offer to Stephen Strasburg, indicating that they too know that he’ll be departing the club for Los Angeles or San Diego at the first chance (note: I don’t place one iota of blame on Stephen for that). But they also didn’t sell a full year of Strasburg to a desperate club like the Dodgers who missed out on a free agent starting pitcher.

All of this is to say, the New York Mets have a really great starting rotation (probably the best I’ve seen since the Phillies had Halladay, Lee, Hamels, and Oswalt) and an offense that is more than good enough to win the NL East again.

1. New York Mets
2. Washington Nationals
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. Miami Marlins
5. Atlanta Braves

NL CENTRAL
It probably sucks to be a Milwaukee Brewers or Cincinnati Reds fan. I mean, you couldn’t combine the two clubs into anything resembling a contender in this division. Look, I’ll try (I did this last year with Arizona and Colorado):

C Jonathan Lucroy
1B Joey Votto
2B Brandon Phillips
3B Aaron Hill
SS Zack Cozart
LF Ryan Bruan
CF Billy Hamilton
RF Jay Bruce

SP Wily Peralta
SP Raisel Iglesias
SP Michael Lorenzen
SP Matt Garza
SP Taylor Jungmann

If you look at that team and think, “Yeah, playoffs,” you haven’t watched baseball for a few years. Because Brandon Phillips, Ryan Braun, and Jay Bruce might be nice names to look at, but they are all shells of their former selves. And that rotation…I’m having a panic attack.

Whereas the AL Central is wide open, but kind of iffy, this three horse race between the Pirates, Cardinals, and Cubs is going to be a blast. Great lineups. Good-to-great bullpens. Arguably 3 of the game’s 10 best right-handed starters (Gerrit Cole, Jake Arrieta, Adam Wainwright). What separates these clubs?

Chicago’s lineup. They’re not the best staff (I give that, by a nose, to St. Louis). They’re not the best bullpen (that’s Pittsburgh). They’re not the best defensive club (that’s probably Pittsburgh too). But Chicago’s lineup is truly a murderer’s row of historic proportions. The young superstars were very, very good last year. But consider that Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, and Kyle Schwarber now have another year under their belts. Then consider that they added Ben Zobrist, a machine created to get on-base, to replace Starlin Castro or Javy Baez. And then, if that weren’t enough, Jason Heyward. And now, if he can adapt to that role, you have a potential superstar in Jorge Soler serving as a pinch-hitter in the National League. And who manages the Cubs? Inarguably the best in-game manager in the Majors.

Is the hype machine really, really loud for Chicago? Sure. Has that worked out well for any team in recent years (2014 Nationals *cough*)? It has not. But something (somethings) will have to go terribly, terribly wrong in Chicago if the Cubs do not, at the very least, make the playoffs. And as we’ve seen, once you make the playoffs, everyone has a chance.

1. Chicago Cubs
2. St. Louis Cardinals
3. Pittsburgh Pirates
4. Cincinnati Reds
5. Milwaukee Brewers

NL WEST
The most shocking move of this offseason was easily the Arizona Diamondbacks swooping in and taking Zack Greinke from the Dodgers. It was the kind of move that had me walking up to strangers asking them if they heard the news (I was at a holiday party). The Diamondbacks then made one of the most short-sighted trades in recent memory by sending 2015 top overall MLB Draft pick Dansby Swanson, top 100 prospect Aaron Blair, and Ender Inciarte (a good and useful outfielder) to Atlanta (as though trading Touki Toussaint to the Braves last season for nothing wasn’t enough) for Shelby Miller, a perfectly serviceable mid-rotation starter.

The Diamondbacks think they are in win-now mode. They spent the offseason raiding their farm system of its high-end talent to build what looks like a contender to, well, someone? I don’t see it at all. One elite offensive player (Paul Goldschmidt) and a very, very good one (AJ Pollock) does not, and never has, equaled glory. If Zack Greinke is still a Diamondback on Opening Day 2018, I will gladly eat crow, blue jay, and diamondback.

Remember last year when we (the collective baseball universe) talked a lot about the San Diego Padres? Yeah, that seems like it was a really long time ago. They’re different now. Better? Eh. Maybe.

The NL West race comes down to the Dodgers and Giants for most, but for me, this is the Giants’ division to lose. Could their offense use some additional power? Sure. Is their bullpen aging? Yes. Am I uncertain about their number five starter (probably Chris Heston, maybe Jake Peavy)? Yep. Am I nitpicking? Absolutely.

The Dodgers have been so ravaged by injuries and the Greinke signing that I just don’t see them recovering to make any real noise. Clayton Kershaw is still the best pitcher on the planet. But he is only 4% of the Dodgers roster. Corey Seager is the National League’s answer to Carlos Correa. But he too is only 4%. There are a lot of other pieces on this club that need to perform better than history indicates they can and better than their age says they should, for the Dodgers to challenge the Giants. Especially in an even year.

The Colorado Rockies.

1. San Francisco Giants
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
3. Arizona Diamondbacks
4. San Diego Padres
5. Colorado Rockies

NL PLAYOFFS
Wild Card: St. Louis over Pittsburgh
They start the MLB season against each other and begin the playoffs against each other. I give St. Louis the win based on home-field advantage and Adam Wainwright’s very good postseason record (3.03 ERA, 1.09 WHIP). He’s a workhorse that can give the Cardinals 7 and turn it over to their bullpen of guys America Has Never Heard of Who Can Throw 100 MPH.

NLDS: Chicago over St. Louis, San Francisco over New York
I’ve talked a lot about Chicago and for good reason. I think their biggest flaw is in their rotational depth. Jake Arrieta is a sure-fire ace. But Jon Lester and John Lackey are aging starters. If they hold up for six months, the Cubs will still need at least 3 starts from both (but likely more) where they can bridge it to the backend of the Cubs’ bullpen. Chicago would be wise to add a few bullpen arms at the deadline, no matter the trade cost. You don’t want to have your season end because your middle relief couldn’t get you to the 8th or 9th inning. Ask the 2015 Astros about that. Or the Blue Jays. (All of this said, Chicago’s lineup is, just to reiterate, really, really good)

The Giants beating the Mets might be an upset to some, but, again, it’s an even numbered year. But more importantly, San Francisco can go with Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija, and Matt Cain in a playoff series. And more realistically, they can go with the best 3 of that group in a Best-of-5 series. Are Bumgarner, Cueto, and Samardzija better than Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard? Some would say “no.” I would probably agree. But the gap isn’t nearly as wide as that between the Mets’ Yoenis Cespedes-centric offense, and San Francisco’s balanced approach with Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, Joe Panik, Hunter Pence, etc.

NLCS: San Francisco over Chicago
…and this is where it all goes to hell.

The problem with a really great offense, even one as nearly flawless as Chicago’s, is that slumps seem to be contagious. It’s really hard (read: impossible) to predict a slump for a powerful offense six days away from a series, nevermind six months. But the Championship Series is where, it seems, great offenses have recently gone to die. The Cubs last year. The Blue Jays last year. Those are just the most recent examples.

As long as Madison Bumgarner is healthy and the Giants are in the playoffs, they are a team to be avoided. And with the depth they added to their rotation (and let me be clear: I think Johnny Cueto will be a Cy Young contender pitching in San Francisco this season), the Giants are poised to keep this very weird “even year” thing going.

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WORLD SERIES
San Francisco over Houston

Do you like orange?

You’ll probably read this as one of two things: 1.) He’s trying to jinx the Giants and/or 2.) He’s leaning too heavily on something that is truly just an aberration (the “even year” thing). Trust me, I’m not.

San Francisco’s lineup isn’t anywhere near as good as Chicago’s. It’s not the 1927 Yankees. But what it is is balanced. I keep using that word. But there’s speed (Span, Pagan). There’s great contact hitting (Belt, Panik). There’s power (Posey, Pence). And the Giants are as well managed as any team short of the Cubs.

As for Houston, AJ Hinch is a rare example of a former player who is a competent manager. I watched more Astros games last season than any other team. And I intend on doing the same thing this season too. I’ve said about Stephen Curry that I feel so privileged to be able to watch him play basketball that I sometimes think about just dropping money through the vents on my TV. I feel similarly about Carlos Correa. Yes, I get to watch Bryce Harper and that is also wonderful. But there’s a simplicity to the way Correa plays. Bryce Harper is all effort. Don’t get me wrong. He is in possession of tools that any player would envy. But with Correa, he’s got tools, but he never looks like he’s about to kill himself while he’s using them. The game moves so slowly for him. He’s a joy to watch, just like Harper, Mike Trout, Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Curry, Gennady Golovkin, Lionel Messi, and any other athlete blessed with incredible talent and work ethic. Correa is part of a special group of athletes in sports right now.

That said, Correa will have his day. I just don’t think 2016 will be that day. Houston may very well make a big trade at the deadline and add a pitcher like they did with Scott Kazmir last season. Or they’ll add an offensive player like they did with Carlos Gomez. They have the prospects to do it. They could frankly add both. And if they do, this prediction could change. But right now, as March turns to April, I think the Giants have the organization best suited to winning the 2016 World Series.

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SOME AWARDS
AL MVP: Mike Trout (OF/LAA): I think the Angels will struggle this season, but it will have nothing to do with the best player in baseball. Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor will be in the conversation. But it’ll be a forced conversation.

NL MVP: Kris Bryant (3B/CHC): I see Anthony Rizzo as a popular pick and he is the de facto leader of the “Paper Champions.” But Bryant has the sort of raw power that will allow him to put up numbers that Rizzo just can’t. Also, it’s always worth mentioning Paul Goldschmidt and Giancarlo Stanton. They won’t be playing baseball for contenders, but they’ll be playing great baseball regardless.

AL Cy Young: Danny Salazar (Cleveland): I’m out on a big limb here. But I look at Salazar as a Dallas Keuchel-type. Keuchel was a very good pitcher coming into last season who put it together because he figured out how to be his best self. Salazar has the sort of “stuff” that Keuchel doesn’t. He did a great job of cutting down on his walks last season. Cutting down on the contact that he draws (easier said than done) will do the trick for Salazar.

NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles): He has a herculean task ahead of him. He will need to carry a staff that consists of Kenta Maeda, Zach Lee, Brandon McCarthy, Scott Kazmir, Carlos Frias, Alex Wood, Mike Bolsinger, and any other flotsam and jetsam that the Dodgers can acquire or call up from AAA Albuquerque. Kershaw can do it. I think he will carry the Dodgers to the brink of the playoffs on the shoulders of a sub 2.00 ERA and a sub 1.00 WHIP. It won’t be enough for the boys in blue, but it will be enough for Kershaw to take home another one of these.

AL Rookie of the Year: Nomar Mazara (OF/Tex): Once the Ian Desmond project fails spectacularly (let’s go with…late-April), Texas can call up the stud Mazara and he will rake for the next 10-15 years.

NL Rookie of the Year: Steven Matz (SP/NYM): The forgotten man in the Mets rotation. A really effective lefty who will start the season in the rotation and avoid some of the New York spotlight that the likes of Harvey, Cespedes, deGrom, Syndergaard, and Neil Walker will soak up. Okay, maybe not Neil Walker.

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WHERE I WILL BE WRONG
Here’s a “fun” section. The top 5 things I’ve written above that I wouldn’t bet the life of my fake pet turtle on:

5. Danny Salazar winning the AL Cy Young
4. Houston making the World Series
3. Seattle not making noise in the AL West
2. Dusty Baker and the Washington Nationals (happily) proving me wrong and winning the NL East
1. I have an uneasy feeling about Mike Trout. I don’t know what it is. Maybe it’s the Angels’ general mediocrity. But it shouldn’t feel like “going out on a limb” to predict Trout to win his second MVP. But it was for me.

As with the entire baseball season, time (a lot of it) will tell. For now, enjoy the start of the season!

2015 NFL Preview…For All My Fans in Brazil

/ Jason / 1 Comment

In looking at my stats, I found that a large chunk of my viewership comes from Brazil.  I don’t know what that means, other than that I’m probably not writing about the right topics (or in the right language). With that, here’s my English language snapshot NFL preview for the 2015 season:

AFC East
1. Miami Dolphins 11-5
2. Buffalo Bills 8-8
3. New England Patriots 8-8
4. New York Jets 5-11

AFC North
1.Pittsburgh Steelers 11-5
2. Baltimore Ravens 10-6
3. Cincinnati Bengals 8-8
4. Cleveland Browns 3-13

AFC South
1. Indianapolis Colts 13-3
2. Jacksonville Jaguars 9-7
3. Houston Texans 7-9
4. Tennessee Titans 2-14

AFC West
1. San Diego Chargers 10-6
2. Kansas City Chiefs 8-8
3. Denver Broncos 7-9
4. Oakland Raiders 4-12

AFC Wild Card Round
San Diego defeats Jacksonville
Pittsburgh defeats Baltimore

AFC Divisional Round
Indianapolis defeats San Diego
Pittsburgh defeats Miami

AFC Championship
Pittsburgh defeats Indianapolis

NFC East
1. Dallas Cowboys 10-6
2. New York Giants 9-7
3. Philadelphia Eagles 8-8
4. Washington Redskins 1-15

NFC North
1. Green Bay Packers 9-7
2. Minnesota Vikings 9-7
3. Detroit Lions 7-9
4. Chicago Bears 5-11

NFC South
1. Atlanta Falcons 10-6
2. New Orleans Saints 8-8
3. Carolina Panthers 6-10
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2-14

NFC West
1. St. Louis Rams 12-4
2. Arizona Cardinals 10-6
3. Seattle Seahawks 8-8
4. San Francisco 49ers 4-12

NFC Wild Card
Minnesota defeats Atlanta
Arizona defeats Green Bay

NFC Divisional Round
St. Louis defeats Minnesota
Arizona defeats Dallas

NFC Championship
Arizona defeats St. Louis

Super Bowl Fifty
Pittsburgh defeats Arizona

2015 College Football Preview

/ Jason / Leave a comment

Last year, in an act of pure apathy, I wrote probably my shortest blog post ever. The post was my preview of the 2014 college football season. In it, I incorrectly picked Oregon to beat Florida State in the national championship and (correctly) Marcus Mariota to win the Heisman. I went out on no real limbs, except with South Carolina making the playoff, which they, um, didn’t. But let’s move on from that.

This season’s post will be slightly more exhaustive. For that I am sorry. But I can’t help but be slightly more excited about this college football season because the race is wide open.

It’s just that “the race” is the race to lose to Ohio State in the National Championship game.

Armed with their third-string quarterback, Ohio State dismantled Wisconsin to win the Big 14 last season and sneak into the first ever college football playoff. From there, they easily dispatched with Alabama and Oregon, looking at times like an NFL team scrimmaging Elon University.

So talent-laden at the quarterback position are the Buckeyes that this offseason, their former All-Conference quarterback and Davey O’Brien Award finalist Braxton Miller had to switch positions to wide receiver.

The Buckeyes quarterback job will be won by either junior Cardale Jones, who led Ohio State to their stunning playoff victories, or sophomore JT Barrett who was excellent prior to the injury that opened the door for Cardale Jones.

I think at the end of the day, though Urban Meyer would probably prefer the more mobile Barrett, he’ll go with the better quarterback in Jones. Really, he can’t go wrong with either guy.

And if the embarrassment of riches at the quarterback position weren’t enough in Columbus, the Buckeyes bring back Heisman candidate Ezekiel Elliott at running back and potential top overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft (unless Jones gets taken ahead of him), defensive end Joey Bosa, along with preseason All-American safety Vonn Bell. No team can match what Urban Meyer has assembled in Columbus.

Are there roadblocks along the way? Of cour….Actually no. Ohio State’s schedule is laughably easy. Unlike Alabama in previous years, the defending champs won’t have to travel to Auburn, Baton Rouge, Oxford, or College Station. Instead, they’ll travel to Blacksburg, Bloomington, Piscataway, Champaign-Urbana, and Ann Arbor.

Realistically, the only hiccup could come against Michigan State in the penultimate game of the regular season, but that game will occur in Columbus. And sure, Jim Harbaugh might have assembled some kind of wunder-team at Michigan, but I think that will take a couple seasons. And if you think that Virginia Tech’s win over Ohio State in 2014 means anything a year later, I’d like to place a friendly wager on that game and rob you and your family of a satisfying financial future.

Who Can Challenge Ohio State?
No one. I already told you that. Why can’t you listen?

Who Can Lose to Ohio State in the National Championship?
In some order: Baylor, TCU, Auburn, USC, Florida State, the winner of the October 3 game between Alabama and Georgia, and Clemson.

Let’s look at each case:

Baylor
The only question is, “What quarterback will slot into an easy-to-run system filled with athletic receivers who are YAC machines?” Once that question is answered, Baylor should run the table this season with an experienced, improved defense led by human destroyer Shawn Oakman.

TCU
Gary Patterson returns the Heisman front-runner in Trevone Boykin, but an inexperienced defense. Yes, this team absolutely destroyed Ole Miss in their bowl game, but they won’t get to face Jim Bob Levi Bo Wallace at quarterback every week this season. The offense will put up points at a rapid pace, but I don’t expect the defense to be as suffocating as they were when we last saw them. The entire season for both of these schools comes down to the de-facto Big TwelveTen championship on November 27 in Fort Worth.

Auburn
All things considered, a fairly pedestrian schedule, with only LSU (a team that will struggle to score 14 points a game despite having one of the best running backs in the country) on the road. Jeremy Johnson should prove himself to be a more capable quarterback than Nick Marshall, who led Auburn to their improbable BCS Championship game appearance in the 2013 season.

USC
Someone is coming out of the Pac-12 and it’s down to USC, UCLA, the Arizona schools, and Oregon (Nearly half the conference). USC has the most talent on both sides of the ball, so despite their difficult schedule that sees them traveling to Eugene, Tempe, Rehab possibly (in the case of coach Steve Sarkisian) and South Bend, I’m taking them as the best bet to escape from what will be the most exciting conference to watch in college football this season. That said, I see a lot of 10-2 and 9-3 teams in the Pac-12. Which means I don’t necessarily see anyone getting into the Playoff.

Florida State
Lots of talent, none of the discretion, morals, self-awareness, or social graces. Florida State is back on the map!

Alabama/Georgia
I’m back and forth on this one. Neither are likely to get great quarterback play. Georgia has the best all-around player in running back Nick Chubb, but Alabama has an All-American run stuffer in A’Shawn (?) Robinson. Both teams will still have to play Auburn, and in the case of Georgia, will likely have to play one of the Alabama schools twice.

Clemson
I mean, Clemson isn’t actually going to get into the playoff. Easy schedule and talented quarterback aside, c’mon. This is Clemson.

What About Horses? That Are Dark?
There can always be a 2014 TCU that gets close or a 2013 Auburn that gets there or that random year when Kansas and Missouri were in the Big XII and traded weeks as the number one team in the country.

(An aside: seriously, Kansas’ football program. Kansas.Todd Reesing, come back and save the Jayhawks!)

So who can surprise us this year?
Here are the five teams that could make a run but will all likely finish around 8-4 and play in the Alamo Bowl. All of them. At the same time!!!!:

Washington, Georgia Tech, Tennessee, Nebraska, and Arkansas.

What Will The Playoff Look Like
Ohio State (#1) over Auburn (#4)
Baylor (#2) over Georgia (#3)

(Note: I think a one-loss (to Auburn) Georgia team beats a previously undefeated Auburn in the SEC Championship game, seeing both teams sneak in ahead of #5 TCU who will have lost at home to Baylor by 2 touchdowns, for their only loss of the season.)

And, well, you know how this ends.

Heisman Trophy
Here are a list of players that I would say have a chance to win the Heisman this season:

Trevone Boykin (QB/TCU)
Cardale Jones (QB/Ohio State)
JT Barrett (QB/Ohio State)
Ezekiel Elliott (RB/Ohio State)
Nick Chubb (RB/Georgia)
Leonard Fournette (RB/LSU)
Duke Williams (WR/Auburn)
Everett Golson (QB/Florida State)
Malik Zaire (QB/Notre Dame)
Joey Bosa (DE/Ohio State)
Shawn Oakman (DE/Baylor)
Myles Jack (LB/RB/UCLA)
Christian McCaffrey (RB/Stanford)

That’s a lot of players. Much like the race to lose to Ohio State, the Heisman race might too be a race to lose to an Ohio State player. Right now, I’ll take Cardale Jones to win the Heisman. What I saw (what we all saw) last year was stunning from him. He looked like a professional quarterback running really good college defenses into the ground. It’s risky to bank on a guy who hasn’t technically won a starting job yet, but I’d take the risk on Jones.

2015-16 Barclays Premier League Preview

/ Jason / Leave a comment

Soccer has never been more popular in America. I don’t have any of the facts needed to back that statement up. But it feels true doesn’t it?

Maybe my perception is skewed because I live in the nation’s top media market for the Barclay’s Premier League, but I’ve never seen more people gravitating towards both world football and domestic football.

There are any number of entities who should be given credit for the success of soccer in America, but more than the U.S. Women’s National team, or the men, or ESPN or Messi or whatever, much credit has to be given to NBC. The Peacock owns no rights to MLB, consequential college football or basketball, or the NBA. It owns the rights to one NFL game per week and a Super Bowl every three years. And it owns the rights to the NHL. This is all to say, NBC is not a sporting giant. It lags well behind the other three major networks in sports.

So, heading into the 2013 season, NBC took a big risk and bet on the Barclays Premier League. In their first two seasons of owning the BPL’s broadcasting rights, NBC set itself apart from every other network in its coverage of a singular professional sports league. Utilizing NBC Sports Network (and, it should be said, giving that formerly weird, ambiguous network an identity) NBC created great companion programming for the matches they were airing. Beyond that, they made every match accessible. Previously, under Fox and ESPN, you were forced to watch Manchester United and whomever was playing Manchester United. NBC Extra Time gave viewers instant, free access to every West Bromwich, Sunderland, and Everton match. And for some, that’s not that exciting, I’m sure. But for others, it exposed them to different styles of footballing and has helped to create fanbases for those clubs here in the States that otherwise might have existed, but no one would have noticed.

So here we sit on the precipice of something really seismic. Soccer is officially not going away in the U.S. It’s only going to become more popular as more matches become available to more people. Fox will begin broadcasting Bundesliga matches this season. And Fox, ESPN, and UniMas will continue broadcasting MLS games. And hopefully (their contract expires at the end of this season) NBC will continue to grow the English Premier League, the best league in the world, here in the U.S. Gone are the arguments about the virtues of soccer. If you’re still trying to tell everyone it’s too boring and too low scoring, stop. You’ve already lost a battle you didn’t even need to be fighting. People care. Atlanta and Minneapolis will soon have first-division American soccer clubs. Both already have excellent supporters groups. If you dislike soccer so much, I’m sorry, but you’re running out of countries in the world where you can avoid it.
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The 2015-16 Barclays Premier League seasons begins on Saturday, though it’s worth noting, the season never really ends. Your favorite team, or your future favorite team, plays all year. Once the official club season ends, you can find your favorite club playing exhibitions across the world, from Hanoi to Houston. The peak of a professional footballer is really in the mid-20s. Some players excel into their early 30s. Few do it into their mid 30s and on a rare occasion, someone will excel past 35. It’s a year round game and because of that, it’s a young man’s game.
What follows is my own little idiot’s guide (written by one, for one) to the 2015-16 BPL (or EPL if you prefer) season. Clubs listed are in alphabetical order. Star player is a a stretch for some. Skip to the end for my predicted order of finish and other tidbits.

Arsenal
Plays in: London
Nickname: The Gunners
Wears: Red and White
American Sports Comp: Dallas Cowboys (former powerhouse turned competitive punchline)
Star Player: Alexis Sanchez
2015-16 Expectations: Win the whole thing. It’s been over a decade since Arsenal finished the season top of the table. Expectations are rightfully high this season. Arsenal’s biggest weakness may have become their greatest strength this offseason when they added former Chelsea goalkeeper Peter Cech. Arsenal is probably the deepest squad in the EPL in the midfield and may turn to natural midfielder Theo Walcott to provide some speed at the forward position.

Aston Villa
Plays in: Birmingham
Nickname: The Villains
Wears: Claret and Blue
American Sports Comp: Cleveland Browns (spurts of success, mostly surrounded by mediocrity and failure)
Star Player: Jordan Ayew (notwithstanding that he’s never actually played a match for Aston Villa)
2015-16 Expectations: Maybe get relegated. Aston Villa has never been relegated out of the Premier League, but if it’s going to happen, this might be the year. The squad lacks depth and certainly lacks proven punch up front with the departure of striker Christian Benteke (now at Liverpool).

AFC Bournemouth
Plays in: Bournemouth
Nickname: The Cherries
Wears: Red and Black
American Sports Comp: Like if the Toledo Mud Hens were promoted to Major League Baseball tomorrow (making EPL debut this season)
Star Player: Sylvain Distin (?)
2015-16 Expectations: Play exciting football and hope to stay up. Bournemouth plays a ferocious attacking brand of football, which is to say that they’re bound to get thrashed a few times this season. Goal difference could matter for them at the end of the season. Of the 3 newest editions, they’re by far the most intriguing, in terms of watching them.

Chelsea
Plays in: London
Nickname: The Blues
Wears: Blue
American Sports Comp: St. Louis Cardinals (Very successful, insufferable and sometimes racist fans)
Star Player: Eden Hazard (reigning Player of the Year)
2015-16 Expectations: Win again. Chelsea will look to repeat as champions this season, despite making very few changes to last year’s club that, as the season wore on, started to show some cracks. That said, no one of consequence left Stamford Bridge. Chelsea will look to do as they always do: take a 1-0 lead, drop 9 men back defensively (park the bus) and hope to hold on to the victory. Some people think they suck all the joy out of football, but I’d never say that….

Crystal Palace
Plays in: London
Nickname: The Eagles
Wears: Blue, Red, and Yellow
American Sports Comp: Seattle Mariners (Cool stadium, good fans, little hope of ever winning anything)
Star Player: Yohan Cabaye
2015-16 Expectations: Alan Pardew left his managerial post at Newcastle with the club in shambles, came to South London, and now has Palace poised to make another run at a top 10 finish. The offseason addition of Cabaye from Paris Saint-Germain was a stunner and, as such, might be the move of the entire EPL offseason. Look for Palace to finish top 10 and possibly be in contention for a Europa League spot.

Everton
Plays in: Liverpool
Nickname: The Toffees
Wears: Blue and White
American Sports Comp: New York Jets (Second tier in their market, haven’t made a title run in a very long time, will sneak up on you and compete despite flaws)
Star Player: Romelu Lukaku
2015-16 Expectations: Europa League. Granted, last year’s trip through the enclaves of Eastern Europe did nothing to help the Toffees’ EPL season as they languished in medicority despite lofty expectations. It’s a make-or-break season for Manager Roberto Martinez. He may need to make a run at the Champions League to retain his job, given the amount of talent at Everton. Problem being: there’s a lot of talent at the other top 6 clubs and only 4 Champions League spots to go around.

Leicester City
Plays in: Leicester
Nickname: The Foxes
Wears: Blue and White
American Sports Comp: Columbus Blue Jackets (Also a sports organization that wears blue)
Star Player: Leonardo Ulloa
2015-16 Expectations: Somehow, Leicester snuck out of the relegation zone last season. They probably won’t be as lucky this season. The loftiest of expectations for this club is simply for them to stay up.

Liverpool
Plays in: Liverpool
Nickname: The Reds
Wears: Red
American Sports Comp: Boston Red Sox (Supporters so vocal that you can’t help but be a little annoyed by their dedication. Also, play in an historic stadium. Also owned by the same person)
Star Player: Jordan Henderson
2015-16 Expectations: All over the map. Liverpool fans will tell you this is a team that can make a run at the Top 4. Rational people will tell you this is a club that will have to contend, like their Merseyside rivals Everton did last season, with life in Europa, playing Thursday matches in rural Bulgaria before returning home to England to play the likes of Tottenham and Manchester United. It’s not an easy road and frankly, might be the end of it for Boss Brendan Rogers.

Manchester City
Plays in: Manchester
Nickname: The Citizens
Wears: Sky Blue
American Sports Comp: Los Angeles Dodgers (After years of failure, new owners came in with limitless money and decided to buy titles)
Star Player: Sergio Aguero
2015-16 Expectations: Realistically, a top 4 finish, but with the financial commitment ownership has given, anything less than a title will not be enough. Squad depth will be the real concern, as it was last season. A healthy Sergio Aguero will go a long way towards Man City’s success.

Manchester United
Plays in: Old Trafford, Greater Manchester
Nickname: The Red Devils
Wears: Red
American Sports Comp: New York Yankees (After years of success, they still throw limitless money at players to varied results)
Star Player: Wayne Rooney
2015-16 Expectations: Championship. Chelsea, Arsenal, and Manchester United are, I believe, the only 3 teams that are deep enough to make a run at EPL glory. United might be slow out of the box, as they were last season, but there’s such a dynamic influx of talent, led by Memphis Depay, that it’s hard to see them not fighting it out until Week 38 for a championship trophy.

Newcastle United
Plays in: Newcastle upon Tyne
Nickname: The Magpies
Wears: Black and White
American Sports Comp: Oakland Raiders (Frightening fans known for their less than welcoming nature. The club is also always mired in controversy)
Star Player: Mousa Sissoko
2015-16 Expectations: Hanging on by a thread would be considered a great success for Newcastle in 2015-16. This is a club in constant turmoil, no matter who is at the helm. It’s hard to get big name players to come to Newcastle and it’s hard to get young talent to stay there. That revolving door doesn’t lend itself to great success.

Norwich City
Plays in: Norwich
Nickname: The Canaries
Wears: Yellow and Green
American Sports Comp: Tampa Bay Rays (Charming in their small-time nature, you can’t help but root for them to do well even though the financial backing isn’t there)
Star Player: Wes Hoolahan
2015-16 Expectations: They were good enough to stick around two years ago, but faltered late. This time around, they’re just as good. This isn’t a team that will make a run at any glory, but it should be one that’s safe for another season.

Southampton
Plays in: Southampton
Nickname: The Saints
Wears: Red and White
American Sports Comp: Houston Astros (Great youth development is leading to a period of tangible success)
Star Player: Ryan Bertrand
2015-16 Expectations: If life, or football, were fair, Southampton would get to compete for trophies. Instead, they have to sell off their young talent and rebuild with other young talent. The Saints play a fun style of football with a solid backline, led by fullback Ryan Bertrand and centreback Jose Fonte. Up front, it’s speed for days with Sadio Mane and Dusan Tadic, and finishing ability with Jay Rodriguez and Graziano Pelle. Another Europa League bid would be a big boost, but I look for Southampton to struggle playing in this year’s tournament for the first time.

Stoke City
Plays in: Stoke-on-Trent
Nickname: The Potters
Wears: Red and White
American Sports Comp: Buffalo Sabres (Team playing in a random industrial post without any history of great success)
Star Player: Mame Diouf
2015-16 Expectations: The most intriguing team of the offseason, Stoke has rebranded from being a grind-it-out club, reflective of the cold, industrial town they reside in to a Barcelona-light, pass-happy, possession-happy, beautiful football playing club. Some think that’ll translate to Europa League while others think a strictly mid-table finish is the best expectation. That said, whatever happens, they’ll be fun to watch for the first time in a long time.

Sunderland
Plays in: Sunderland
Nickname: The Black Cats
Wears: Red and Black
American Sports Comp:Detroit Lions (Never really any good, but never quite the worst)
Star Player: Adam Johnson
2015-16 Expectations: Get the PR campaign all booted up for their 2016-17 run at the Championship Division crown.

Swansea City
Plays in: Swansea (Wales)
Nickname: The Swans
Wears: White and Black
American Sports Comp: Toronto Raptors (Only team from a country other than England in the Premier League. No great history of success.)
Star Player: Gylfi Sigurdsson
2015-16 Expectations: Continue their trend of mid-table success.

Tottenham Hotspur
Plays in: London
Nickname: Spurs
Wears: White and Blue
American Sports Comp: Kansas City Chiefs (One of the best home-field advantages and fan bases in the sport despite not having a lot to really brag about)
Star Player: Harry Kane
2015-16 Expectations: This is the yea…..no I’m joking, they’ll just make it back to the Europa League again.

Watford
Plays in: Hertfordshire
Nickname: The Hornets
Wears: Yellow and Black
American Sports Comp: New York Islanders (Powerhouse in the 1980s. Barely alive since)
Star Player: Etienne Capoue
2015-16 Expectations: In the swimming pool that is the bottom of this table, hope to hold their breath just long enough to outlast the other bottom-feeders.

West Bromwich Albion
Plays in: West Bromwich
Nickname: The Baggies
Wears: White and Blue
American Sports Comp: Pittsburgh Pirates (Competitive from the 1950s-1980s, not much after that, on the incline now)
Star Player: Sadio Berahino
2015-16 Expectations: See: City, Swansea.

West Ham United
Plays in: London
Nickname: The Hammers
Wears: Claret and Blue
American Sports Comp: Brooklyn Nets (Cool new stadium opening next year. Always forgotten about in their large media market)
Star Player: Diafara Sakho
2015-16 Expectations: Rumors of their demise have to be premature. This was a club that finished 12th, 13th, and 10th in each of the last three seasons. And frankly, the bottom of this table is so crowded, that I have a hard time believing West Ham will be opening their beautiful new stadium in 2016-17 with a Championship division match against MK Dons.

FINAL TABLE
1. Manchester United
2. Arsenal
3. Chelsea
4. Manchester City
5. Tottenham Hotspur
6. Everton
7. Stoke City
8. Liverpool
9. Crystal Palace
10. Swansea City
11. West Bromwich Albion
12. Southampton
13. Norwich City
14. West Ham United
15. Aston Villa
16. AFC Bournemouth
17. Newcastle United
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18. Sunderland
19. Watford
20. Leicester City

NOTABLES
Player of the Year: Wayne Rooney (Manchester United)
First Manager to Get Sacked: Steve McClaren (Newcastle United)
First Also-ran Manager to Get a New Job: Paul Lambert (Newcastle United)
Biggest Disappointment: Diego Costa (Chelsea)
Best Incoming Transfer: (tie) Memphis Depay (Manchester United), Yohan Cabaye (Crystal Palace)
Worst Incoming Transfer: Raheem Sterling (Manchester City)
Team To Make Furthest Champions League Run: Arsenal (Quarterfinals)

PROMOTED FOR 2016-17
1. Blackburn Rovers
2. Hull City
3. Middlesbrough

2015 NFL Mock Draft…Sort Of

/ Jason / Leave a comment

The team that drafts Jameis Winston (and it’ll probably be Tampa Bay) will live to rue that decision. I envision a mixture of Tim Couch and JaMarcus Russell in Winston. Do I hold a wealth of animosity towards Winston? Of course. He showed no remorse for his alleged sexual assault. He showed no growth when he stood on a table in the middle of campus and yelled a misogynistic, stupid Internet meme? And he showed that he just doesn’t care about the rules when he stole crab legs from a supermarket and then, recently, came up with some unintelligible story about said crab legs.

The crab leg incident on its own is comical. The Internet meme thing is just a stupid college kid being stupid. But the sexual assault allegation is repugnant, when combined with the way that he and his university handled the situation.

I’ll root against Jameis Winston as vociferously as I can. And I think he’ll do a lot to help that on the field.

What I see in Winston is a sloppy quarterback with questionable athleticism who makes very poor decisions outside of the pocket. But he’s a “winner” you say? So was Craig Krenzel. And Ken Dorsey. And Chris Weinke.

On the other side of the quarterback dime, we have Marcus Mariota. By every account, a great teammate. Also a winner. A very accurate quarterback on the move and one who makes smart decisions in the pocket. But “the system,” you say. Have you seen the offenses teams are running in the NFL? This isn’t Bill Walsh’s National Football League.

There is no Andrew Luck in the 2015 Draft. But if you’re a quarterback-needy team (and note, I don’t think Tampa Bay is because I think Mike Glennon is a perfectly adequate bridge to a better QB in 2016 (Cardale Jones)) Mariota is the clear and obvious choice for my eyes.

All of that said, Tampa Bay is going to draft Jameis Winston first overall. And Marcus Mariota will go second overall to whomever slots in to that second pick (whether it be Tennessee or the team that trades Tennessee their future).

After that, I’m looking at a draft that will be reminiscent of the 2013 one, where the top picks have yet to make any sort of impact.

PLAYERS I LIKE

Amari Cooper (WR/Alabama): Comical, it is, that people are talking about Kevin White v. Cooper. White is a very high upside prospect out of West Virginia, looking to follow in the long line of Dana Holgorsen-coached WRs to go on to great success in the NFL, including…and also… I mean, Tavon Austin? Donnie Avery? Holgorsen’s system allows WRs to put up great numbers and White, in addition, has the measurables. But he’s raw. Cooper is refined and has a very achievable ceiling of Pro Bowl WR. Sure, Kevin White might become a Hall of Fame type player. But I’m better on no. And I’m betting on Cooper.

Leonard Williams (DT/USC): There’s not much to dislike about Williams. He’s an enormous presence on the defensive line and should plug in on Week 1 for whatever horrible team drafts him (likely Oakland at 4).

Trae Waynes (CB/Michigan State): A big, physical corner who has speed, can cover one-on-one and can tackle? Yes, sign me up for that please. Especially in a passing league. Do not understand why he’s a projected mid-first rounder and not a top 10 guy.

Shaq Thompson (S/Washington): Versatile, hard-hitter. Could wind up as a linebacker, a la Brian Urlacher, who played safety in college at New Mexico.

Landon Collins (S/Alabama): I like safeties. Especially supremely physical ones. Collins is not going to go one-on-one with Rob Gronkowski. But he might take Julian Edelman’s head off. So that has to count for something.

PLAYERS I DON’T LIKE

The rest of the first round, basically. If I’m looking to bet on a sure thing, I take the guys above. If I’m hoping that a supremely talented, off-the-field mess will work out, I draft Shane Ray (DE/Missouri), Dorial Green-Beckham (WR/Oklahoma…even though he didn’t actually play there), and Randy Gregory (DE/Nebraska). And if you’re just looking to hit the number right in roulette, well, enjoy the rest of the draft, my friends.

LATE ROUND SLEEPERS WHO I THINK WILL BE USEFUL NFL PLAYERS

QB: Pass. But I will predict that the Eagles will either draft or sign Bryan Bennett from Southeastern Louisiana. Also, I like Brett Hundley, but he’s not a “late round sleeper.”

RB: TJ Yeldon (Alabama). I mean, I’ve predicted that he’d win the Heisman Trophy every year since 1998, so I might as well keep riding the horse that hasn’t won me anything yet, right?

WR: Stefon Diggs (Maryland). Could catch on as a kick returner/punt returner and serve as a decent fourth receiving option. Likely to be a 6th or 7th round pick.

DL: Zack Hodges (Harvard). Loved watching him at the Combine. Great motor. Quick. Physical. Would serve as a three-down lineman.

LB: Kyle Emmanuel (North Dakota State). Played End in college but could move to linebacker (read: should) in the NFL. Another guy I loved watching at the Combine. Was a dominant player at NDSU.

DB: Ifo Ekpre-Olomu (Oregon): Had his ACL not torn at the end of the season, Ekpre-Olomu would have been a first round draft pick. That’s reason enough to take a flier on him, which I would imagine Chip Kelly will do as he attempts to recreate the Oregon Ducks in Southeastern Pennsylvania.

2015 MLB Preview

/ Jason / Leave a comment

Sunday marks the beginning of the Major League Baseball season, aka the Longest Slog. As much as I truly love the game of baseball, I can’t help but look at the schedule as a whole as a daunting challenge. On a night-by-night basis, it’s refreshing. One game at a time. But as a whole, it’s an exhausting exercise. By the time August rolls around, everyone seems to be playing at half-speed. Attrition takes over and you wind up with the likes of Aaron Harang and Chien-Ming Wang making spot starts for World Series contenders (assuming both of them, currently with the Phillies and Braves, get traded).

Before burnout sets in, though, it is a time to rejoice and celebrate the return of spring and life and hot dogs and $8.75 Coors Lights. Unless you’re a fan of the Braves, Diamondbacks, Phillies, Twins, or Rockies.

A quick look at each division and the some thoughts:

AL East

1. Toronto Blue Jays

2. Boston Red Sox * WC

3. Baltimore Orioles

4. New York Yankees

5. Tampa Bay Rays

An absolutely bizarre division without a single balanced team. The Red Sox might have the best offense in the game, but probably the thinnest rotation of anyone in this division. Tampa has some high upside pitchers and an atrocious offense. The Yankees have the offense, but no pitching and the Orioles have a slightly better version of what the Yankees have. Toronto, a team that hasn’t made the playoffs since the first year of the Clinton presidency, is the most balanced, especially with young prospects Aaron Sanchez and Daniel Norris poised for very good seasons. I like them and Boston to advance to the playoffs from this division.

AL Central

1. Detroit Tigers

2. Kansas City Royals

3. Cleveland Indians

4. Chicago White Sox

5. Minnesota Twins

The Tigers’ offense is the best whole unit in this division and I think that’s what gets them to the playoffs (with a swift exit). Losing Max Scherzer in free agency and now Justin Verlander to a triceps injury only puts more pressure on David Price, but with the lineup Brad Ausmus can trot out there, a weak rotation and an incredibly shaky bullpen are still better than what’s happening elsewhere. Kansas City misses out on the playoffs due in large part to the continued managerial shortcomings of Ned Yost and a rotation lacking a David Price or even an Anibal Sanchez. If you’re combining the perfect team, but only from this division, you take Cleveland’s manager, Detroit’s lineup, Kansas City’s bullpen, Chicago’s rotation (if/when it has Carlos Rodon in it), and absolutely nothing from the Minnesota Twins, except maybe their pretty ballpark.

AL West

1. Seattle Mariners

2. Oakland Athletics * WC

3. Houston Astros

4. Los Angeles Angels (aka The Angels Angels of Anaheim)

5. Texas Rangers

I had to talk myself out of the Houston Astros as the AL’s second Wild Card team. I love the youth in their lineup with George Springer. I love the balance of contact/power (Jose Altuve/Evan Gattis and Chris Carter) in the lineup. Defensively, they’ve got range in the outfield. They have the best bullpen in the division thanks to the signings of Pat Neshak and Luke Gregerson (to go along with Tony Sipp and Chad Qualls). And they’ve got the most underrated ace in baseball in Dallas Keuchel, who finished last season in the American League with a sub-3.00 ERA, a FIP of 3.21, and a WHIP of just 1.17. Add to that the youth of Asher Wojeciechowski and Mark Appel, once he makes his debut and likely replaces Fausto Carmona in the rotation, and I really think you’ve got the makings for a very solid baseball team and one that might contend sooner than the SI prediction of 2017.

But given all of that, the Mariners are the most well-rounded team in this division and possess both the best starting rotation and the best all-around lineup. Say what you will about him, but the addition of Nelson Cruz will be a boon to that offense. Oakland sneaks into the Wild Card game after an offseason of strange rebuilding/reshuffling. Do I think the A’s are better today than they were last year at this time? No. But do I think the Angels and Rangers are worse? I do, as both of those teams lack the starting pitching (in both depth and quality) to really make an impact.

AL Playoffs

Wild Card Game: Boston over Oakland

ALDS: Seattle over Detroit, Boston over Toronto

ALCS: Boston over Seattle

NL East

1. Washington Nationals

2. Miami Marlins *WC

3. New York Mets

4. Atlanta Braves

5. Philadelphia Phillies

Atlanta and Philadelphia aren’t worth talking about. The Marlins and Mets are worth talking about in tandem. With Miami, I firmly believe that a healthy Jose Fernandez would be the difference between them just sneaking into the Wild Card game and winning the division. And yes, I think Miami is making the playoffs this year. There’s too much balance in their lineup for them not to. And I love the addition of Mat Latos to the rotation. For the Mets, there’s not enough offense to contend. The pitching, especially with the return of Matt Harvey, will be the show in Queens. But if you think that bullpen and a lineup that trots out Wilmer Flores and Juan Lagares every day is going to get to the postseason, you’ve got another thing coming.

Washington is every person’s favorite to win this division and for good reason. Nobody is going to contend with a rotation that sees Doug Fister filling out the #5 spot in the rotation (in a division that sees: Dillon Gee, Wandy Rodriguez, Jarred Cosart, and Sean O’Sullivan as the other #5 starters). The health of the lineup (already a question) will be key. The real test though should be the playoffs and how manager Matt Williams develops and adapts. A large quantity of the blame for the 2014 playoff loss to the Giants can be placed at Williams’ feet. He’s got an arguably better club in 2015. Second year or not, it’s time to do something with that club.

NL Central

1. St. Louis Cardinals

2. Milwaukee Brewers

3. Pittsburgh Pirates

4. Chicago Cubs

5. Cincinnati Reds

The 2-5 of this division could also be described as “the logjam towards mediocrity.” I would doubt that more than 8 games would separate these teams. I expect St. Louis to run away with this division by August. For those arguing that the Cubs are a contender, I’d ask them to take a look at their bullpen, for example, and explain to me how they’re going to close out games for the likes of Jason Hammel and Kyle Hendricks. I know that Jon Lester is there. And I know that Joe Maddon is at the helm. And I know and am very excited for the arrival of Kris Bryant. But lets pump the brakes a bit. Milwaukee and Pittsburgh are interchangeable: lineups capable of winning games/rotations with question marks at the back end (and, with Francisco Liriano in Pittsburgh, the front end). I give the slightest of nods to the Brewers, though I don’t expect either team to make it very far into October.

NL West

1. San Diego Padres

2. Los Angeles Dodgers *WC

3. San Francisco Giants

4. Colorado Rockies

5. Arizona Diamondbacks

No one’s offseason was more interesting than the deal-a-minute Padres, who completely revamped their team and did so in a way where I think they can contend for a World Series this year in what is a very strange Major League Baseball landscape, where the presumptive favorite (Washington) has a number of question marks. And San Diego could quietly get back a big piece if Cory Luebke returns in mid-July as expected from TJ surgery. Going into the playoffs, presumably, with their lineup and a four-man rotation of James Shields, Andrew Cashner, Luebke, and Tyson Ross could allow San Diego to make some real noise.

The only other contender in this division is the Dodgers, who just don’t have the starting pitching depth that you need for a 162 game slog. Of course, they’re much better than San Diego at the top with Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, but at the back end, they’re currently relying on Brett Anderson to hold up. Brett Anderson, who hasn’t started 25 games in a season since 2009 when he was 21 years old. In fact, since 2009, he’s started a combined 49 games. When he pitches, he’s a good pitcher. But he doesn’t actually pitch. And so beyond him, the Dodgers will have to rely on prospect Zach Lee or Joe Wieland or Juan Nicasio, especially while Hyun Jin Ryu misses time with an injury. Offensively, the Dodgers replace Kemp with the very exciting Joc Pederson who I expect to have a big impact on the club. Elsewhere, they’ll rely on the new up-the-middle combo of Howie Kendrick and Jimmy Rollins to stabilize that area defensively and provide more on-base ability than Dee Gordon and a cast of others were able to.

It’s an odd year, so we won’t talk about the Giants.

Bringing up the rear are the Diamondback and the Rockies. For fun, let’s combine the two teams and see what that team would look like:

Rotation:

Jorge De La Rosa

Jon Gray

Josh Collmenter

Jeremy Hellickson

Kyle Kendrick

Catcher: Wilin Rosario

First Baseman: Paul Goldschmidt

Second Baseman: Aaron Hill

Shortstop: Troy Tulowitzki

Third Baseman: Nolan Arenado

Right Fielder: Carlos Gonzalez

Center Fielder: Charlie Blackmon

Left Fielder: Corey Dickerson

I’m not even sure that team would be able to win this division.

NL Playoffs

Wild Card Game: Los Angeles over Miami

NLDS: St. Louis over Los Angeles, Washington over San Diego

NLCS: St. Louis over Washington

World Series

St. Louis over Boston (4-2)

Baseball’s most-well rounded team gets revenge for 2004 and 2013

AL Awards

AL MVP: Jose Bautista (OF/Toronto Blue Jays)

AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez (SP/Seattle Mariners)

AL Rookie of the Year: Daniel Norris (SP/Toronto Blue Jays)

NL Awards

NL MVP: Giancarlo Stanton (OF/Miami Marlins)

NL Cy Young: Adam Wainwright (SP/St. Louis Cardinals)

NL Rookie of the Year: Joc Pederson (OF/LA Dodgers)

Five Trades That Should Happen Sooner Rather Than Later:

Philadelphia trades Cole Hamels to Los Angeles Dodgers for Julio Urias and Corey Seager (A lot to give up for the Dodgers in their two best prospects, but Hamels seems like he’d be a great fit in Southern California, even more so than in Boston. Meanwhile, a terrible farm system in Philly gets a huge upgrade in two very high-upside prospects.)

Washington trades Jordan Zimmermann to Boston Red Sox for Mookie Betts, Matt Barnes, and Trey Ball (Nowhere near the pitching upside that the Phillies would get for Hamels in Urias. That said, Ball and Barnes are former first-round picks who could use a change of scenery. Betts would give the Nationals the second baseman they’ve lacked since Jose Vidro and Zimmermann would give Boston the ace they so desperately could use. Zimmermann is not coming back to Washington after this season and with Tanner Roark wasting away in the bullpen, I see no reason why the Nats can’t stay focused on this year while looking toward the future.)

Atlanta trades Craig Kimbrel to Detroit for Devon Travis and Kevin Ziomek (Atlanta gets a middle infielder (the Tigers top prospect, blocked by Ian Kinsler) for their future and a 23 year old pitching prospect and the Tigers get an actual human relief pitcher)

Colorado trades Troy Tulowtizki to New York Mets for Noah Syndergaard, Brandon Nimmo, Dilson Herrera, and Rafael Montero (The Mets offense gets a huge upgrade, their Major League club gets no worse, they still have Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, and Zack Wheeler going forward, and they have baseball’s best left-side of the infield. Meanwhile Colorado gets to actually rebuild from the ground up and gets themselves out of Tulo’s expensive deal. When you’re not going anywhere, like the Rockies, it’s time to go somewhere)

Colorado trades Carlos Gonzalez to Seattle Mariners for Alex Jackson and Edwin Diaz (The Mariners can afford to bolster their lineup and what better place than replacing Dustin Ackley in left with CarGo. Do his home/away splits scare me a little? Sure. But Colorado isn’t a tiny park and he could serve as a useful doubles hitter in the similarly vast Safeco Field. Meanwhile, Colorado gets a stud outfield prospect in Alex Jackson and a still raw 21 year old starter in Diaz to add to a crop of young talent that would include Jon Gray, Eddie Butler, and Noah Syndergaard at the top end.)

2014 Preview of Roger Goodell’s National Football League

/ Jason / Leave a comment

…because you can have a team name be a racial slur and you can beat your partner into a lack of consciousness, but you better not be gay or smoke pot.

 

It feels like ages since the NFL was on our collective radar. Not a day has passed since the Super Bowl where I haven’t found myself wishing that some story would pop up, whether about an owner, player, coach, or draft prospect, that could dominate the sports landscape, if only for one news cycle. To detail to you the hours (probably days) that I have lost, laying in bed, wishing that we could spend months debating the quarterback competition for an inevitably 4-12 football team, would be more laborious for you than reading this paragraph. 

 
A few weeks ago, a commercial for the Opening Night game between the Packers and Seahawks came on, and Amanda sighed, “Already? Does it ever stop?”
 
I’ve got to say, this isn’t just a non-football fan lamenting the return of a sport which dominates her Sunday afternoons and evenings. Even I am tired of the dominance of the NFL. Exciting things are happening in baseball right now. Clayton Kershaw is making a legitimate case to be the NL Cy Young and MVP award winner. The Angels, Athletics, and Mariners are in a surprising race for the AL West crown. Derek Jeter is retiri…..nevermind. The sport of soccer, on the heels of the World Cup, is thriving in the U.S. as NBC Sports’ Premier League ratings continue to defy expectations. But if the backup free safety for the Jacksonville Jaguars steals a Kit Kat, you can bet your last dollar that we’ll have Josina Anderson on the case live from Whatever It’s Called Stadium as part of an Outside the Lines special.
 
But hey, that doesn’t mean that I can’t write a few thousand words about the NFL season, right??? Right???? Sigh…Let’s just look at the divisions and how I predict them to finish:
 
AFC East
 
1. Miami Dolphins 11-5
I know. I predicted similar things last year and they didn’t come to fruition, but much like with the Kansas City Royals in the AL Central, I’m going to keep riding the Miami Dolphins train until they win the division. I expect a big year from Ryan Tannehill thanks to a solid bond with now second-year Dolphin WR Mike Wallace and an offense more suited to Tannehill’s skill set.
 
2. New England Patriots 9-7
 With New England, I just don’t see the offensive tools being there, even if La Fiesta plays the entire season at TE. On the other side of the ball, this is a team with very limited depth in the front-seven, who will also be without free agent signing CB Brandon Browner while he serves his latest suspension. 
 
3. New York Jets 6-10
Geno Smith remains their quarterback.
 
4. Buffalo Bills 6-10
EJ Manuel remains their quarterback.
 
AFC North
 
1. Cincinnati Bengals 11-5
Maybe the best defense east of Albuquerque, the Bengals only improved with the addition of rookie Darqueze Dennard, who I expect to have a “Revis Island” like impact. Meaning, he won’t win Defensive Rookie of the Year because the counting stats won’t be there, but he should. Meanwhile, Andy Dalton continues to fly way beneath the radar. True story: he’s been better in his first three seasons than Peyton Manning was in his. And he has AJ Green. 
 
2. Baltimore Ravens 8-8
A generally mediocre team all around. When I look at Joe Flacco, I don’t see marked improvement. And with no running game to speak of, I expect the Ravens to be anemic on the offensive side of the ball. 
 
3. Pittsburgh Steelers 7-9
A late run nearly got Pittsburgh into the playoffs in 2013, but I think that was just a mirage. This is a team with a number of problems, especially in the defensive secondary and wide receiver positions. Couple that with the fragility of their enormous, immobile QB and I don’t see Pittsburgh getting over the hump.
 
4. Cleveland Browns 4-12
The four wins are a testament to how good their defense should be. The Browns go 4-deep at the CB position (while the Steelers go 1/2 deep). There’s also real depth at the linebacker position. The Browns offense, however, will not be quite so good. With Andrew Hawkins and Miles Austin as their top receivers and career backup Ben Tate starting at running back, you’d already be leery. But joining them is Brian Hoyer, a capable NFL backup QB, but not someone you’d want to give the keys to your Porsche to. Why Johnny Manziel isn’t starting, I just don’t understand. 
 
AFC South
 
1. Indianapolis Colts 12-4
You’re not going to find many people calling D’qwell Jackson the signing of the offseason, but I think he brings Indianapolis exactly what they were in need of defensively: leadership and skill at the ILB position. Jackson is a tackling machine, who quietly made his mark in Cleveland. With Robert Mathis suspended for the Colts’ first four games, there’s a void that I fully expect Jackson to fill (in terms of leadership). Meanwhile, offensively, as long as the Colts only attempt to run the ball 20% of the time, I expect them to put up lots of points, as Andrew Luck only continues his development. 
 
2. Jacksonville Jaguars 9-7
I’m not just drinking the Kool-Aid, I harvested the powder myself. I love the Jaguars defense and offensively, I think there’s enough there to win games. Would I rather see Blake Bortles starting at QB? Sure. But do I think Chad Henne makes the Jaguars worse? No. The addition of Marquise Lee at WR is one that I love and I don’t expect the Jaguars rushing attack to be too anemic. But really, that defense, behind the leadership of coach Gus Bradley, will be the difference, especially in a weak division (and conference on whole). 
 
3. Tennessee Titans 6-10
I expect them to be a surprising 2-0 before Jake Locker injures himself against the Bengals in Week 2 and it all fades like the dying embers of summer. 
 
4. Houston Texans 5-11
They chose Ryan Fitzpatrick over Teddy Bridgewater, Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel, and Derek Carr. This is what happens when you do that. Jadeveon Clowney might end up being a very good pass rusher. Pair him with JJ Watt and you’ll have quite the intimidating force. But if you have backup QBs throwing the ball on the other side, what good is that really going to do in today’s NFL?
 
AFC West
 
1. Denver Broncos 13-3
All the Wes Welker suspensions in the world ain’t going to slow down this offense. And I think the defense is better now too, assuming that Von Miller is both healthy and un-suspended. 
 
2. Oakland Raiders 9-7
Let’s get crazy. Yes, I’m predicting at least .500 records for the Raiders and the Jaguars. And much like the Jaguars, I expect Oakland’s strength will lie with their defense. The addition of Justin Tuck and the drafting of Khalil Mack will bolster the Raiders pass defense and a hard-hitting secondary will make for a rough time of it for the pass-happy NFL. On offense, I was surprised to see the success had by Derek Carr in the preseason and also pleased that Oakland gave him the offense. If one of Maurice Jones-Drew or Darren McFadden stays healthy for the entire season (and I realize that’s unlikely with IR-DMC) Oakland should be able to manage their way, a la the Kansas City Chiefs in 2013. 
 
3. Kansas City Chiefs 7-9
Let’s talk about that Alex Smith extension in two seasons, shall we?
 
4. San Diego Chargers 5-11
Their success last season made very little sense to me and I expect them to regress to the mean in 2014. When your biggest offseason move is to sign a guy a division rival cut (Brandon Flowers) after OTAs, you’re not doing it right. 
 
AFC Playoffs
 
WILD CARD ROUND
Cincinnati over New England
Miami over Jacksonville
 
DIVISIONAL ROUND
Denver over Miami
Indianapolis over Cincinnati
 
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Indianapolis over Denver
 
 
NFC East
 
1. Philadelphia Eagles 11-5
You could be forgiven if you think that maybe Nick Foles isn’t for real. However, I’ve long thought that the former Arizona Wildcat is the real deal. 13.5 TD/INT ratio “real deal?” Probably not. But Foles is in the right offense. Philadelphia only gets further than this very bad division if their defense can hold opponents to ~21 points per game (basically, what the Colts and Patriots defenses did in 2013). If that happens, you could have a dark horse Super Bowl contender. I’m not sure that happens. 
 
2. Dallas Cowboys 8-8
Because they’re the Cowboys and they’re going to finish the season .500 and it will be Tony Romo’s fault even though he’ll throw for 4,000 yards and the defense will allow 30 PPG. 
 
3. Washington 6-10
There’s nothing here that leaves you with a ton of confidence. The corners are going to be abused by Philadelphia and Dallas. The quarterback looked confused in preseason. And the offensive line isn’t exactly auditioning for the Pro Bowl. Oh, and they have a rookie head coach. And a racially insensitive team name.
 
4. New York Giants 3-13
You know what sounds like an immense amount of fun? The Giants drafting Jameis Winston next Spring. Oh, the fun it will be. But before we get there, we’ll have to watch Eli Manning attempt to throw 30 INTs in a season without being benched. The offensive line remains atrocious. The running game is a huge question mark. And defensively, well, there’s a good amount there, but for the Giants to be competitive, their defense will need to be as good as the early 00’s Ravens. And that’s not going to happen. 
 
NFC North
 
1. Chicago Bears 11-5
We go from the worst division in the East to the best in the North. Chicago wins this division because of their incredible balance. They can win a game throwing. They can win a game running. They can win a game entirely on defense. Heck, even their special teams are good. It all comes down to Jay Cutler’s ability to manage a game when needed. The Bears were so successful with Josh McCown last season not because McCown is a great quarterback, but because he knew he didn’t need to be the star of the show. Cutler doesn’t seem to have that trait. But if he can learn, or just stop throwing dumb balls, the Bears can win the Super Bowl (foreshadowing!). 
 
2. Green Bay Packers 10-6
The defense is but a hair behind the Bears and Rodgers’ targets are nowhere near as good as Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey. A healthy-for-the-whole-season Rodgers will be essential, of course, but that’s not some groundbreaking thought. People will get really excited about the addition of Julius Peppers, but he’s 34 years old and had 7 sacks in 2013 after 11.5 the year before. In short, he’s not vintage Julius Peppers.
 
3. Minnesota Vikings 9-7
Like the Jaguars and Raiders before them, I’m driving the Minnesota Vikings bandwagon all the way to, well, close to the playoffs. I believe in Matt Cassel. And if he stinks, well, I think Teddy Bridgewater will be a Top 5 NFL QB before his career is done. This is a team with the best running back, a developing tight end with elite potential, and an improved offensive line. On the defensive side of the ball, you’re looking at a young, exciting team. Yes, they were an abomination last year. But they were a year younger last season. I love the addition of Captain Munnerlyn at corner, opposite Xavier Rhodes. Likewise, I love the drafting of Anthony Barr. And playing home games outdoors will be a big boost to this team. 
 
4. Detroit Lions 7-9
The defensive front is majestic. The rest of the defense is going to continue to be an abject disaster. Offensively, the addition of Golden Tate will be a boon, but the thing that Detroit is really missing is one other great receiver opposite Calvin Johnson.Tate is, at best, a slot guy. There’s probably some hope that rookie TE Eric Ebron can be that guy, but rookie TEs never succeed. Matthew Stafford will need to take his game beyond just 5,000 yards and a cloud of INTs for Detroit to make it out of the NFC North alive.
 
NFC South
 
1. New Orleans Saints 10-6
Rivaling the NFC East, we have the flawed NFC South. New Orleans is the best team of the bunch. The defense is still not going to win them games, but the offense remains good enough (i.e. Drew Brees remains good enough) to win games on their (his) own. 
 
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8-8
Lovie Smith will make a big difference in Year 1. The defense is young, but improving and they have two capable, though not outstanding, quarterbacks in Josh McCown and Mike Glennon. I cannot believe I just complimented Mike Glennon. This is a ship that’s headed in the right direction. Get it? Ship!!!!!!!!! Buccaneers!!!!!!!
 
3. Atlanta Falcons 6-9-1
Like the Detroit Lions, I look at this defense and I just think, “How do they stop a good offense?” And I also look at this team and think, “How are they going to run the football?” Matt Ryan is a good QB. Julio Jones is an elite WR. But beyond that and an aging Roddy White, I don’t think last season’s dumpster fire was an aberration. 
 
4. Carolina Panthers 4-11-1
Yes, I’m predicting a tie between the Falcons and Panthers. This is a team due for some enormous regression. Last year, everything clicked. This year, the offense around Cam Newton is atrocious, with rookie WR Kelvin Benjamin the primary target (or perhaps you prefer Jerricho Cotchery?) at WR. The running game has not been updated since the Polk administration (and I don’t mean Chris). And the offensive line is a sieve. The defense was the star in 2013 and remains solid, but the loss of Captain Munnerlyn will show. 
 
NFC West
 
1. Seattle Seahawks 10-6
I think there will be a good deal of hangover in Seattle. There’s also way too much talent for it to keep them out of the playoffs. The X-factor is and always will be Percy Harvin’s health. Seattle will need someone to fill the void left by Golden Tate. And yes, that’s a real thing. Defensively, the losses of Red Bryant and Brandon Browner would severely hurt another team. But Seattle will be fine. And the NFC West is not as good as we thought. 
 
2. Arizona Cardinals 9-7
The NFC’s best defense combined with an offense capable of scoring big points. What’s not to like? The one  problem: Carson Palmer is going to throw lots of INTs and there is absolutely no option behind him on the depth chart. The Cardinals are, in a lot of ways, like the poorer man’s Chicago Bears. If only Arizona’s running game was good enough to allow Palmer to game manage. That said, Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald are two excellent targets who will take some Palmer mistakes and turn them into receptions. And the defense is good enough to win games on its own. 
 
3. Santa Clara 49ers 7-9
It might seem silly right now to think that the team in the East Bay will be better than the team not anywhere near the Bay, but I see a struggling Colin Kaepernick, an old Frank Gore, and a defensive secondary (outside of Eric Reid) that will get torn to shreds. Oh, and remember that whole thing in the offseason about Jim Harbaugh going to the Browns? And remember that thing with Ray McDonald being arrested for domestic abuse earlier this week? And remember the stupid thing that Chris Culliver said during Super Bowl 47 week? And remember how they lead the NFL in arrests? And remember that thing with Aldon Smith being suspended for half the season? Teams with this much turmoil rarely succeed. I don’t expect the 49ers to. 
 
4. St. Louis Rams 7-9
Ah, what might have been. St. Louis was my post-Super Bowl 48 pick to go to Super Bowl 49. The defense was secretly very good in 2013 and due to improve with age in 2014. And they were getting Sam Bradford back. And they had the number 2 pick in the draft thanks to the Robert Griffin trade. And then they went and drafted Michael Sam and I loved them even more. Not just because they drafted Michael Sam, the gay football player. But because they drafted a really good football player (more on that in a moment) who would improve an already fearsome defense. And then Sam Bradford went and got his ACL torn again and it all went to crap. The end. 
 
NFC Playoffs
 
WILD CARD ROUND
Green Bay over New Orleans
Seattle over Arizona
 
DIVISIONAL ROUND
Chicago over Green Bay
Seattle over Philadelphia
 
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Chicago over Seattle
 
 
SUPER BOWL XLIX
Chicago over Indianapolis
 
In a re-match of the 2007 Super Bowl, neither Peyton Manning nor Rex Grossman get any playing time. The Bears avenge their loss in that Super Bowl, suffocating the Colts en route to a 21-10 victory.
 
AWARDS!!!
 
NFL MVP: Adrian Peterson (RB/Minnesota Vikings)
NFL OFFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Derek Carr (QB/Oakland Raiders)
NFL DEFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Anthony Barr (LB/Minnesota Vikings)
NFL COACH OF THE YEAR: Dennis Allen (Oakland Raiders)
 
And now, a thought on Michael Sam:
 
There is nothing I would enjoy more than Michael Sam winning the NFL’s Defensive Rookie of the Year award. This isn’t because I have some sort of vendetta against Anthony Barr or Khalil Mack, but rather because I like the underdog. 
 
Talent evaluators will look the other way if you allegedly threaten to rape a rape victim (Taylor Lewan, drafted 11th overall by the Tennessee Titans), or drive 110 MPH down a highway (Jadeveon Clowney, drafted 1st overall by the Houston Texans), or operate a vehicle whilst impaired (Bradley Roby, drafted 31st overall by the Denver Broncos). And once you’re in the NFL, “the other way” starts to feel creeped out by how often coaches and GMs look in its direction. 
 
Talent evaluators will not look the other way, however, if you are undersized or gay. Unfortunately for Michael Sam, he is undersized for his position and he is also a gay man. In Roger Goodell’s NFL, a place where you can be suspended for a year for smoking marijuana, but only two games for beating your girlfriend unconscious and dragging her body out of an elevator, there’s little room for an undersized, gay football player. 
 
I would understand Michael Sam being cut by the St. Louis Rams after barely being drafted if he wasn’t a particularly good football player. However, Sam was the SEC’s Defensive Player of the Year last season. He also lead the Rams in sacks in the preseason (say what you want about preseason stats). Undersized or not, Sam has an incredible motor and a knack for getting to the football. Before his announcement that he was gay, Sam was projected as a late 2nd-late 3rd round draft pick. I personally thought he should have been a late 1st round draft pick based on the productivity I saw in college. Instead, he was taken late in the 7th round and cut in favor of undrafted rookie Ethan Westbrooks, who attended West Texas A&M, and said this about his face tattoo that reads “Laugh Now, Cry Later”:
 
“I was just like I might as well go ahead and get it on the face because if nothing else, it will help motivate me to either be a guy that has a tattoo on his face looking for another job or hopefully I make it in the NFL and don’t have to work too hard to do something [else].”
 
Westbrooks might very well become a good NFL pass rusher. And young people do very stupid things like get face tattoos to motivate themselves to make the NFL because no one will hire them otherwise. Okay, that’s not true. But let’s pretend it is. Just for football reasons, I’m perplexed as to why the SEC Defensive Player of the Year, who was as productive as any edge rusher in the preseason would get cut in favor of a guy who played Division II football. Is it distractions? Because let me tell you, face tattoos are pretty distracting.
 
Michael Sam made the Dallas Cowboys practice squad and has a very good chance to play some games for Dallas this season, as their depth at defensive end is not deep. At all. Silly stories about Michael Sam’s shower habits (thanks, Josina Anderson!), and Tebow-esque media attention aside, Michael Sam is a really good football player, who happens to be undersized and happens to be gay. I’m looking forward to watching him continue to prove Roger Goodell’s NFL wrong. I’m looking forward to watching him prove Jeff Fisher and the St. Louis Rams wrong. And I’m looking forward to watching him shatter every homophobe’s stereotype of what a gay man should “act like.”

2014 College Football Preview: An Exhaustive, One Paragraph Look At The Season To Come

/ Jason / Leave a comment

As we collectively mourn the death of the BCS, I offer you my predictions for the “playoff” in college football. In one game, I’ll take Oregon over South Carolina. In the other game, I’ll take Florida State over Oklahoma. And in the Championship, I’ll take Oregon sparing us from having to watch Jameis Winston be happy again. 

Bonus Paragraph!!!

Marcus Mariota will win the Heisman Trophy. 

 

2014-15 Barclays Premier League Preview

/ Jason / Leave a comment

Though it seems like the Barclay’s Premier League season just ended (because it did), this Saturday will mark its official return at 7:45 a.m. EDT when Manchester United host Swansea City at Old Trafford. The opening weekend does not provide us with many great matchups on paper, though it rarely does. But the opening weekend and the season at large do provide a wealth of story lines. In no particular order and by no means a complete list:

 

1.) Can Manchester City repeat as Premier League Champions? YES

2.) Does Liverpool stand a chance without Luis Suarez? NOT REALLY

3.) How hungry is Luis Suarez right now and can you let me know his general proximity to my arm? PROBABLY VERY. THANKFULLY IN SPAIN.

4.) Will Louis Van Gaal transform Manchester United? YES, BUT GIVE IT TIME

5.) Will Southhampton be capable of fielding a full roster? BARELY

6.) Wait, so it’s pronounced “Lester?” I GUESS.

7.) Can Mauricio Pochettino do at Tottenham what he did last year at Southampton, with more seasoned talent, and make a run at the Champions League? YES.

8.) Drogba? Really? LOL

9.) Now that they’ve finally spent money, where does Everton stand? A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE TOP, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE

10.) How will we survive without Norwich City’s yellow kits on a Saturday morning? I DON’T KNOW. I JUST DON’T KNOW.

 

If you read last year’s BPL preview, you know that only a handful of teams can win the league trophy, a bunch of teams exist to play spoiler, and the others fight to avoid being relegated, as Fulham, Cardiff City, and Norwich City were last year. This might not make the BPL sound very exciting and at times, it’s frankly not. Manchester City won the league crown last year despite losing matches along the way to the likes of Cardiff City and only spending a total of 15 days during the season in first place. This isn’t college football where every game matters. To say otherwise would be a lie.

That said, the games that do matter, really matter. Every match between the top 7 clubs (Arsenal, Chelsea, Everton, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, and Tottenham) is a must-watch match. And even more than last year, those seven teams come into 2014-15 rather evenly placed. But before we get to them, let’s talk about the other 13 teams briefly.

 

TRAVELING THAT LONELY ROAD TO THE SKYBET CHAMPIONSHIP LEAGUE

20. Burnley

Their previous trip to the Premier League ended after just one season. With the talent they have in place, I expect that to happen again.

19. Southampton

This pains me, because Southampton had built something so entertaining, so refreshing, and so good on the south coast only to let nearly every piece of that slip away, to be replaced by Ryan Bertrand. I’m not a Southampton fan, but that was a team to root for.

18. Crystal Palace

Originally my 8th place team, the sudden departure this week of manager Tony Pulis drops Palace into the relegation zone. Pulis saved them from a quick departure last year and made them relevant. Without him, Palace were and will be punchless.

 

CUTTING IT REAL CLOSE

17. West Bromwich Albion

The Burger King of Premier League teams. Never the worst, but never very enjoyable.

16. Swansea City

In a slow downward trend towards inevitable relegation.

15. Sunderland

Aka Jozy and the Black Cats. Sunderland always find a way to make it interesting. And then they go and beat Chelsea at Stamford Bridge and change the entire landscape of the season. It happened last year and could happen again.

 

THE OTHER NEW GUYS, SO LET’S BE NICE TO THEM

14. Leicester City

The money is certainly not there unlike their partner in this category, but I really love their badge and it’s their first time in the modern Premier League, so lets cut them a break.

13. Queens Park Rangers

Forever one of the most frustrating teams in English football, QPR has the money and the players to be a spoiler, but consistently underachieve. This is a roster that features Loic Remy (a capable goalscorer), Rio Ferdinand (one of England’s most decorated central defenders, albeit in the twilight of his career), Julio Cesar (Brazil’s starting GK), and a handful of other players, all somewhat aged, but many of whom who have had success in their careers.

 

NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM DISAPPEARING OR BEING A SPOILER

12. Stoke City

They don’t win with attractive football. In fact, they rarely win. But they play a smart defensive style that keeps them afloat and have the advantage of playing in one of the toughest road stadiums in the BPL.

11. Aston Villa

A healthy Christian Benteke will make a world of difference in this attack. Expect him back by October.

10. West Ham United

A couple of nice transfers/loans, the highlight of which is Carl Jenkinson from Arsenal, improve a club that floundered at the end of last season.

THE SPOILERS

9. Hull City

A really well-balanced roster that performed better than expectations (at least mine) last season with a couple of nice additions (including a full season of Nikica Jelavic at striker).

8.  Newcastle United

Aka The Alan Pardew Project. On paper, Newcastle should be in this spot every year, however, much like QPR, inconsistent play seems to hamper them. That said, of the non-contenders, this is the most talented roster all-around, with depth off the bench and skill in the XI. A sneak attack into the Top 7 is highly unlikely, but would not be a total shock.

 

THE CONTENDERS

7. Everton

The signing of Romelu Lukaku has been largely criticized because of the sheer dollar amount spent by the Toffees, a club that has been historically unwilling to spend large sums of money on star or potential-star players. I am not one of the people criticizing such a move. Lukaku is only 21 and coming off a season where he, at times, was a dominant striker while on loan on Merseyside. Paired with Everton’s other young gun, Ross Barkley, Lukaku helps form the most dangerous young duo in the BPL. For Everton the issues arise in their lack of dynamic, seasoned depth. When healthy last season, Barcelona loanee Gerard Deulofeu gave Everton a fast, dynamic attacking wing man. His presence this season would have been a huge boon to Everton, had Barcelona not promoted him to their first-team roster and then loaned him to Sevilla. The other big challenge for Everton will be balancing European competition with the Premier League season, something they haven’t needed to do for quite some time and something that has challenged clubs like Swansea City and Newcastle United in recent years.

6. Tottenham Hotspur

The recent signing of US defender DeAndre Yedlin aside, Spurs have been relatively quiet during this transfer window, with Michael Vorm being the highest profile signing, though he figures to get just Europa League work with Hugo Lloris firmly grasping the #1 GK role. And so the hope in North London is that a new coach will cure what ailed an inconsistent club in 2013-14, especially after a busy summer transfer period leading in to that season. 13-14 saw two different coaches, neither of whom seemed to click with the roster and so Mauricio Pochettino leaves the South Coast for White Hart Lane and hopes to have the kind of success there that he did last year at Southampton, where he took a group of mostly raw, young players and turned them into a near-Europa league contender. Tottenham’s roster is much better than the one he had at Southampton, though much like Everton before them, Spurs find themselves in the tough situation of having to play Thursday Europa League matches in, as the Men in Blazers call them, Eastern European drug enclaves. It’s a brutal way to play, no matter how lavish the travel arrangements are and rarely does that equal success on the pitch in the League. That said, Spurs are deeper than Everton and more experienced with the Europa League schedule.

5. Liverpool

The biggest headline at Anfield in the brief offseason was the departure of top goal scorer Luis Suarez, who after pledging his allegiance to Liverpool, moved to Barcelona to pair with Neymar and Messi. He leaves behind a team on the rise, with a flock of very skilled young players, led by Phillippe Coutinho and Raheem Sterling. Both of those players will need to take a big step forward to help lone-striker Daniel Sturridge fill the void left by Suarez’s departure. The additions of Rickie Lambert, Adam Lallana, and Dejan Lovren from Southhampton will help the depth and the further development of Jordan Henderson will be key, but for Liverpool to be successful, they’ll need their defense to be much improved over last season’s unit. Lovern may very well supplant Martin Skrtel in central defense, and while Lovern is a certain upgrade, Liverpool will need more consistency in net from Simon Mignolet as well, who at times last season looked to be the best goalkeeper in the world and at other times, looked like he could be a backup for Brighton and Hove Albion.

4. Chelsea

The signings of Felipe Luis, Diego Costa, and Cesc Fabergas are great additions. The signing of Didier Drogba is simply Jose Mourinho being Jose. The loss of Demba Ba probably won’t be noticed, but the loss of David Luiz to PSG might be the thing that really hurts Chelsea. Luiz was, for whatever reason (and Jose always has his reasons) never in favor with the manager. But Luiz is a versatile central defender, who can be useful in attack at times. Not to be forgotten too is the return (from loan) of Thibaut Courtois. Courtois will certainly challenge Peter Cech for playing time and, given his great skill, should win that competition. But again, you never know with Jose, who is the Bill Belichick of football played with the foot. Jose has a great loyalty to his men. Time will tell how long he can remain loyal to the Peter Cechs and Didier Drogbas of the world before he needs to rely on the Willians, Courtois, and Andre Schurrles.

3. Manchester United

Do I think United have a better roster than Chelsea? No. Do I think that Louis Van Gaal, United’s new manager can use his players better than Jose Mourinho can? Yes I do. The best example of this is United’s young Belgian star Adnan Januzaj. Jose Mourinho wouldn’t know what to do with such a young talent. He’d likely make him serve an apprenticeship under a 33 year old veteran. Van Gaal will use Januzaj in his attacking style from day one and United will benefit from that.  And do I think that United will benefit greatly, as Liverpool did last season, from not having to play in European competitions? Absolutely. It will allow players like Robin van Persie more time to recover as they age and give the young guns, like Januzaj and Southampton (noticing a trend?) transfer Luke Shaw further develop their games. This will be a transition year for United, but one that will set them up well for long-term sustained success.

2. Manchester City

Thanks to sanctions handed down by UEFA, Manchester City was not able to make any big transfer splashes, instead adding important pieces, for depth, to the defense and midfield, namely Bacary Sagna, Eliaquim Mangala, and Fernando.. Beyond their additions, this is very much the same Manchester City side that just managed to creep by Liverpool at the end of last season to capture their second BPL title in 3 years. There is really no reason to think that this club won’t challenge for a title again, especially given their success last season despite limited playing time from main striker Sergio Aguero. An argument can easily be made that this club is better as well, given the health of Steven Jovetic, who has looked very good during the preseason warm up matches. City’s placement here in second is less a commentary or criticism on/of them and more a bit of praise for what Arsenal did during this transfer period. 

1. Arsenal

Simply put, Arsene Wenger did an amazing job in the transfer window bringing in Callum Chambers (Southampton), Mathieu Debuchy (Newcastle), David Ospina (Nice), and most importantly Alexis Sanchez (Barcelona). No single move in the transfer window altered a team more than Arsenal’s purchase of Alexis. His presence allows the Gunners to move Mesut Ozil into a primarily passing midfielder role, where he is more useful. Alexis, who fancies himself more a forward than a midfielder, can play directly behind Yaya Sanogo or Olivier Giroud (whoever is the preferred striker) and create chances in a way that will change Arsenal into a goal-scoring powerhouse. Defensively, the additions of the young Chambers and the seasoned Debuchy add certain depth, but also versatility. And in the midfield, there’s no club with the depth that Arsenal packs. Assuming they put out their standard back-4 and one striker lineup, you have five midfield spots for, when healthy:

Theo Walcott, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Mesut Ozil, Alexis Sanchez, Aaron Ramsey, Santi Cazorla, Mikel Arteta, Jack Wilshire, Lukas Podolski, Abou Diaby, Tomas Rosicky, and Mathieu Flamini.

In truth, Arsenal could put together two separate units, almost like hockey lines, and not miss a beat. Their depth is truly unparalleled in the BPL. And for all of the hand-wringing about whether Olivier Giroud is truly a great striker, there are about 15 other teams in the league that would love to have him. There aren’t any holes at the Emirates. This is a team that is built to take home multiple pieces of silverware this season and if their recent win against an albeit short-handed Manchester City side in the FA Community Shield is any indication, it could be a long season for anyone trying to beat the Gunners.

 

And as I did last season, I leave you with my 3 picks to be promoted from SkyBet to the BPL for the 2015-16 season. Last year, I was 1/3. Let’s go for two this time around:

Derby County, Wigan Athletic, Nottingham Forest

2014 NBA Mock Draft

/ Jason / Leave a comment

I want to start this post by focusing on Isaiah Austin. But first, Houston Astros top prospect Carlos Correa recently suffered a serious and still undiagnosed leg injury while running the bases in A-ball. Peter Gammons, one of the greatest scribes and voices in the history of baseball tweeted the following morning “Pray the Carlos Correa injury isn’t serious.” This tweet was of course followed by the easy-to-predict replies of “There are more important things to pray for in this world, Peter.”

I found this particular type of reply callous, cold, harsh, and inhumane. Society’s treatment of athletes is a very conflicted one. We want our athletes to give 100% always, do great charity work, never drive their cars too fast, have 2.4 children (of course, from their high school sweetheart), and rescue kittens from trees during the offseason. But when those athletes suffer some sort of malady, well, they become useless to us. Joey Votto received a heaping load of criticism recently for taking “too much time” to recover from a knee injury. He was being “selfish.” Bryce Harper has got some of that here in Washington. I mean, “WHAT IS TAKING HIM SO LONG TO RECOVER FROM A SIMPLE BROKEN THUMB?!?!” In short, we treat our athletes like they’re not human.

Chances are, the godly or God-fearing amongst us would see no harm in asking for our next door neighbor’s broken leg to heal. Hell, I have family members who say they pray for me to land a job and I’m unemployed because I chose to be. But shame on the person who wishes that a very talented 19 year old shortstop doesn’t have a career-threatening injury.

This brings me back to Isaiah Austin. I’ve never met the 7’1″ former Baylor center. In fact, I’ve never met anyone over 7 feet tall in my life. I’m as separated from Isaiah Austin personally as one could be. But I was filled with sadness on Sunday when I read about his being diagnosed with Marfan syndrome, ending his NBA career before it started. Knowing the Isaiah Austin story (that he’s also been playing basketball at a really high level while being blind in one eye) made this revelation that much sadder. I assume that Austin will return to Baylor and finish his degree. But Marfan syndrome is a dangerous thing, often afflicting the very tall. In short and very unmedical terms, his heart isn’t large enough to sustain him during physical activity. You know, like playing basketball competitively. Or living like a human being. There are people all of the world battling any number of terrible illnesses. But that doesn’t make the Isaiah Austin story any more unfortunate.

I’m happy that NBA commissioner Adam Silver, who has been excellent in his short time on the job, has invited Austin to the Draft. And I hope that one team drafting in the second round uses a pick that they would’ve otherwise spent on a draft-and-stash European prospect on Austin, knowing that he’ll never get to play a game for them, but allowing him to achieve his goal of being drafted by an NBA team.

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Generally speaking, when an NBA Draft seems like an afterthought, it’s because the talent pool is shallow. For example: last year. This year’s draft is not like that. The 2014 talent pool is incredibly deep. You can travel down a list of the top prospects until about the 40s before you start to see a real drop off. There are players who will be selected late in the second round of this draft who would have been first rounders last year. There might not be a LeBron or Durant here, but unlike some recent drafts, there aren’t a lot of Thomas Robinsons or Joe Alexanders likely to go in the lottery.

The afterthought aspect is due to three current NBA players: Kevin Love, LeBron James, and Carmelo Anthony.

Love is not a free agent, but is a “must-trade” for the Minnesota Timberwolves who need get something in return for him before his contract expires after this next season. It’s likely that Minnesota only ends up with $.85 for their $1.00, but that’s better than getting $0.00 for it when Love is a free agent next summer. Love’s list of suitors include the Boston Celtics, Golden State Warriors, Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Lakers, and surely others. Boston is considered the favorite because they have a stockpile of first round draft picks in the coming years (their own and Brooklyn’s) and a smattering of young and somewhat useful players, including Jared Sullinger, Kelly Olynyk, and Avery Bradley. Golden State has the best player to offer in Klay Thompson, but not much in the way of potential high-upside draft picks. Same for Houston. Los Angeles falls into a similar boat as the Celtics’ except they don’t have useful young players to trade or a lot of draft picks. Where Love goes before the Draft could have a huge impact on what happens starting at pick 6 with Boston.

Add to that the idea that if the Celtics can’t acquire Love, they might trade Rajon Rondo to a team, like Sacramento, who needs a true point guard and has young assets (including draft picks). And so, by the end of Sunday night, a team like the Celtics could have a core of Rajon Rondo, Avery Bradley, Jeff Green, Kevin Love, and a tall person, or a core of rookies and future first round draft picks. In other words, a complete, bottom-up rebuild. No player personnel man in basketball has a more interesting next 48 hours than Danny Ainge.

Kevin Love would be a big enough story alone, but the best basketball player in the world is also now a free agent. His suitors include every team in the NBA, from the Heat to the Bucks. LeBron is in a truly fascinating position, because unlike his 2010 free agency, he’s not hunting for championships to begin to craft his legacy. He has two titles now. LeBron could decide to stay loyal to Miami (why, I do not know), rebuild a Cavaliers team he left in shambles and instantly make them a contender, go to Phoenix and form the most exciting team since the 1980s Showtime Lakers, sign with the Clippers and join forces with his best friend Chris Paul and coach Doc Rivers, or go to Chicago and play in the shadow of Michael Jordan with an ailing Derrick Rose (I do not know why this is an option, but I’m not the expert, so…). LeBron could also, in a theoretical world, stun everyone and decide to turn the Milwaukee Bucks or Utah Jazz into his project, propelling them to instant success and consequence. Or he could, in a theoretical world, play for the veteran minimum and join forces with Kevin Durant in Oklahoma City. He could do similar things in Golden State with Steph Curry. The possibilities are endless for LeBron. It’s just a matter of how much of an outside-the-box thinker he and his camp is/are. And how much fun they want to have over the next 4-5 years. My money is on a boring return to a mediocre Miami team (seriously, take him off that roster and tell me how good they are. Do they win 35 games next season?) with Dwyane Wade and his knees and Chris Bosh and his lack of an interior presence. But my heart is with a young, exciting nucleus in Cleveland, being coached by a  total wild card in former Maccabi Tel Aviv coach David Blatt.

Finally, there is Carmelo Anthony, the least interesting of these story lines because he doesn’t make any team a contender automatically. I think he goes to Chicago and Tom Thibodeau kills him before training camp ends for lack of defensive hustle.

All of that brings us to the draft. In the past two years, I’ve made more of a big board because the draft is so impossible to project because of the constant trades. However, I won’t do that here. I’ll give an actual mock draft of the lottery portion, bearing in mind all of the machinations that could occur before and during my favorite annual event. After, I’ll list a few of my favorite players in the Draft, which we’ll call the Kyle Anderson Section.

THE LOTTERY

1. Cleveland Cavaliers select Andrew Wiggins (SG/Kansas): No one, save for one mysterious Australian, has Andrew Wiggins’ upside in this draft. He’s a developed talent defensively who struggled at times as a freshman to take over games in the way that Jabari Parker did at Duke. That said, his athleticism if off the charts. He slots in very well at the 2-guard in most NBA lineups and has the potential to be a perennial All-Star. I think Cleveland likely takes him with the first overall pick. And as I tweeted earlier today, a lineup of: Kyrie Irving, Andrew Wiggins, LeBron James, Tristan Thompson, and Anderson Varajeo isn’t bad at all. In fact, I think it becomes the best lineup in the East. Especially with Dion Waiters, Tyler Zeller, and last year’s top pick Anthony Bennett coming off the bench with an early second round pick and an inexpensive free agent piece or two.

2. Milwaukee Bucks select Jabari Parker (SF/Duke): Parker is not a defensive wizard. In fact, he’s not even good defensively. But he seems to be a coachable player and to be fair to him, he didn’t exactly go to the Jim Boeheim school of Defense in college. Parker is a slasher, shooter, and scorer. He’s polished in that respect and could very easily average 20 points per game as a rookie. He is the safest bet in this draft and given his immense talent, I think he fits in nicely in either of the top two spots, though Milwaukee stylistically is the best fit for him if the Cavaliers (drafting first) think they have a shot at LeBron. And so that’s why he ends up here.

3. Philadelphia 76ers select Dante Exum (PG/Australia): Most high-ranking NBA scouts have only seen Dante Exum play basketball once. That’s not a typo. He played in the Nike Hoops Summit and performed very well against some of the top players in college basketball (many of whom you see here). He is the son of a former North Carolina basketball player. He possesses size (6’6″) that makes him a versatile guard. He is by all accounts a great ball handler with an incredible motor. One NBA GM has said (to ESPN’s Chad Ford) that Exum is the closest he’s seen to Kobe Bryant. And yet, Exum is a total wild card. Philadelphia is his landing spot and it’s not a natural one. Philly would have two very young and very raw 6’6″ hybrid guards in Exum and Michael Carter-Williams. This is a pick built entirely on potential and made slightly easier by the fact that Philly will draft again in this lottery.

4. Orlando Magic select Aaron Gordon (PF/Arizona): Orlando ends up in a really unfortunate position. They miss out on the upside of Exum and the star power of Wiggins and Parker and are left with a choice between three raw power forwards, an injured center, or a volatile point guard. I think they take Gordon because of his upside. There’s a little bit of Blake Griffin in there. Gordon is an athletic freak who will be a rebounding force from Day 1 for whomever drafts him. Like Griffin, the offensive game (outside of alley-oops) will have to be developed, but there’s more to work with in Aaron Gordon than in the alternatives.

5. Utah Jazz select Jabari Parker (SF/Duke): In an act of total spite for the draft system, the Jazz get the player they wanted all along, by taking recently drafted Milwaukee Bucks forward Jabari Parker. Jazz fans rejoice forever, while Adam Silver looks on in disbelief.

5. Utah Jazz actually select Nik Stauskas (SG/Michigan): This isn’t so much a matter of pairing Trey Burke with his college teammate or pairing a white guard with the Utah Jazz as much as it is Stauskas deserving to go this high and fulfilling a need for Utah: he’s a scorer, especially from distance, who showed a real ability to get to the basket and make things happen playing in the physical B1G. With Gordon Hayward a restricted free agent, Stauskas would give Utah some flexibility should someone put forth a hefty offer sheet for Hayward. There’s no doubt in my mind Stauskas is the better player, given his shooting and ball-handling ability.

6. Boston Celtics select Joel Embiid (C/Kansas): If you’re going to rebuild, you rebuild from the ground up. I think this is what the Celtics are finally going to do. In this case, they’ll be rebuilding from the foot up. Embiid has drawn comparisons to Hakeem Olajuwon and Sam Bowie. The risk in drafting him is enormous. But if Boston doesn’t get Kevin Love on Draft night and Embiid falls to them, he’s a must-pick for the future. If his injuries turn out to be a part of a young man growing into his frame, the Celtics could have a Hall of Fame type player fall into their lap. If his injuries turn out to be, like so many other big men, a common side effect of being very big, then they’ll have missed badly, but have enough future assets (including another first round pick in this draft) to attempt to gloss over that miss.

7. Los Angeles Lakers select Marcus Smart (PG/Oklahoma State): This pick just makes too much sense. Smart instantly becomes the best point guard Kobe Bryant has had in a long time (because, you’ll remember, 2005 Steve Nash was not playing for the 2013 Los Angeles Lakers). Smart is a fiery competitor. His temper has gotten the best of him, sure. But he defends well and gives max effort. If Kobe Bryant has anything left in the tank, the two could be a really interesting duo to watch.

8. Sacramento Kings select Elfrid Payton (PG/Louisiana): No one’s stock has risen as much as Payton’s has during the draft process. He draws comparisons to Rajon Rondo because of his defensive ability, length, and unrefined offensive game. The Kings have needed a true point guard since Mike Bibby left 100 years ago. If they’re ever going to get out of the Lottery, it’s going to have to be through developing a team leader. Payton is a reach here, but if the comparisons to Rondo hold true, the 8 spot is a nice place to land a floor general.

9. Charlotte Hornets select Doug McDermott (SF/Creighton): The surprise playoff team of 2013-14, the Hornets own the Pistons pick here because, really, Detroit doesn’t need a first round draft pick, right? McDermott is one of the most accomplished scorers in NCAA Division I history. He can shoot the ball from anywhere on the court and has the size to play and score inside. Charlotte desperately lacks a true scoring threat, as Michael Kidd-Gilchrist has failed to develop that part of his game. McDermott gives them the best pure scorer and shooter in this draft and further improves an already improving basketball team.

10. Philadelphia 76ers select Julius Randle (PF/Kentucky): The Sixers took a risk with the unknown Exum at 3 and now take the safe pick with the former Kentucky standout who still sits on the board because of fears that he’s not quite ready to be an interior player in the NBA and isn’t quite an outside shooter. So if Randle is a ‘tweener, the Sixers still get a known commodity. He’s a guy who is going to rebound the basketball. The comparisons to Zach Randolph are not that far off, even if they are a little obvious. For a team like Philadelphia with little to no interior presence, Randle combined with a potentially healthy Nerlens Noel, could drastically improve their ability to rebound and defend inside. Because they were truly awful at that in 2013-14.

11. Denver Nuggets select Gary Harris (SG/Michigan State): The Nuggets are an interesting case of a talented team that just played bad basketball in 2013-14. The talent is there with Ty Lawson, Danilo Galinari, and Kenneth Faried and a decent supporting cast, but injuries and inconsistent play hampered them last season. Harris gives them a scoring threat at the 2-guard, which is probably what they wanted from 2012 First Rounder Evan Fournier who to this date has averaged 7.4 ppg in his NBA career.

12. Orlando Magic select Dario Saric (SF/Croatia): Draft and stash alert! Saric has signed to play with a team in Turkey, meaning the earliest Orlando will see him (or he will see Orlando, bless his heart) is 2016-17. He is, by all accounts (because I don’t watch Adriatic League basketball) a great passer and ball-handler, with impressive length and size (6’10”). He probably would have been drafted earlier had he committed to playing in the NBA. Orlando can afford this risk, given their two first round picks.

13. Minnesota Timberwolves select Noah Vonleh (PF/Indiana): Call this Kevin Love Insurance. Vonleh is raw, raw, raw, but showed flashes of brilliance in his one year at Indiana. He’s got everything you want from a college freshman, but his game needs a lot of refinement before he’s ready for the NBA. There’s a little bit of Kevin Love in Vonleh (cross-racial comparison for $500, Alex) in that Vonleh can rebound very well, but also step out and shoot the 3. He’s not the passer that Love is, but frankly, half of the NBA’s point guards aren’t the passer that Love is. He’s not an immediate replacement, but if he falls this far (reports are that some teams love Vonleh and others do not like him, as a prospect, at all) he’s a great value pick as a developmental project for Minnesota as they re-re-re-re-re-re-re-re-re-build.

14. Phoenix Suns select Rodney Hood (SF/Duke): The Suns proved to be one of the NBA’s most exciting teams in 2013-14, built on a roster of versatile players and they get another in Hood who can score from anywhere on the court. Hood would be an immediate upgrade at the 3 over PJ Tucker or could be a game-changing 6th/7th man option for coach Jeff Hornacek. There’s little here that Phoenix could get wrong. This is a team I completely misjudged going into last season that was able to take an unconventional roster and win immediately.

KYLE ANDERSON SECTION (players I love at each position)

DeAndre Kane (PG/Iowa State): Kane may go undrafted, due largely to his being 25 years old, but he’s a big, physical point guard with great court vision and a knack for leading the fast break.

Zach LaVine (SG/UCLA): Rawer than Noah Vonleh and the meat of a still living cow, LaVine’s athleticism is the reason to draft him. I think his floor in the NBA is Gerald Green, a guy who started for a near-playoff team (Phoenix) this past season. His ceiling is much, much higher.

Cleanthony Early (SF/Wichita State): Early gets to the basket and scores. He’s also an improving outside shooter and a very good player on the glass for his size. In the right system, he could be starting by the end of his rookie season, despite being a likely late first round pick.

Kyle Anderson (PF/UCLA): If we’re talking unconventional players, we have to talk about my favorite prospect in this draft, UCLA’s Kyle Anderson. I watched Anderson in person dominate USC to the tune of 23/12/5. Anderson is 6’9″ but is naturally a point guard. Because of his size, Anderson isn’t necessarily fast enough to play the point in the NBA, which makes him the most intriguing project in the draft. If someone can find a role for a game-changing point forward, who can rebound the basketball, pass like a point guard, and shoot from 15-23′, they’re going to have a gem in Anderson. This is not a potential rookie of the year candidate. But this is a potentially transformative player.

Sim Bhullar (C/New Mexico State): This is more of an opportunity to talk about Sim Bhullar than anything else. Bhullar is 7’5″, weighs over 350 lbs, and rarely played more than 25 minutes a game at New Mexico State because he just wasn’t conditioned for it. Bhullar came out early, as a sophomore, because, really, there wasn’t much more to improve upon. As they say, you can’t teach “big.” He could be an impact shot blocker/rebounder off the bench, and absolutely nothing more. His inclusion here is a testament to how weak the center position is in the 2014 Draft. It’s really Joel Embiid, a bunch of European guys, and some fringe college players who could get drafted based solely on their size.

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And so there you have it. I won’t continue to mock the first round because I will literally start mocking teams that I think will draft players like Shabazz Napier and Tyler Ennis. There are some other players of note (PJ Hairston and Adreian Payne for example) who I think will be solid NBA players at their positions, but really, the rest of the first round always becomes a mess of trades and European players. So, with apologies to Bosnian center Jusuf Nurkic, enjoy the 2014 NBA Draft.