Normally, I don’t write season previews after the season has begun because that seems unfair. However, regardless of what the schedule says, and with all apologies to UMass-Lowell and Northern Kentucky, the season starts tomorrow, or tonight if you care about Stanford and BYU (I do…11 p.m. on ESPN2).
I love ESPN’s 24 hours (it’s actually about 29) of college hoops to start the season. Maybe you have a job and can’t stay up to watch Wichita State host Western Kentucky at 1 a.m. Eastern, but I don’t have a job and I can. Will I? Only if the fates (and my body) allow.
The 24 hours of college hoops is a fantastic gimmick enterprise that gives teams like Hartford University and New Mexico State nationally televised games at odd hours. When you wake up tomorrow to get ready for work, Hartford will be playing 2013 March Madness cinderella Florida Gulf Coast University.
The whole shebang culminates though in what is probably the best doubleheader, on paper, in the recent or distant history of college basketball with #1 Kentucky and #2 Michigan State playing at 7:30 p.m. (ESPN) followed by #4 Duke and #5 Kansas playing at 9:30 (ESPN) in Chicago. There are far too many “made for TV” college basketball tournaments during the non-conference season, but this is not one that I will complain about (it’s also not technically a tournament).
The four teams playing in that doubleheader could very well be your four Final Four teams in April. Kentucky brings in a freshman class similar to the one that won the championship two seasons ago, led by future top 2 NBA Draft pick Julius Randle. Michigan State brings back the leadership of seniors Keith Appling and Adreian Payne, as well as super-sophomores Gary Harris. Duke welcomes Chicago’s-own Jabari Parker, who will host a homecoming of sorts tomorrow when he welcomes Kansas into the United Center.
The Jayhawks are the most high-profile team coming into this season because of Andrew Wiggins, the latest Toronto to America star (joining Aubrey Drake, Justin Bieber, and to a lesser extent, Kelly Olynyk).
Wiggins, or “The Canadian Michael Jordan” (no pressure) is the highest profile freshman since I cannot remember when. There’s a world of pressure on a player with absurd athleticism, great defensive prowess, and, if we’re to believe the scouts, a tendency to “Ben McLemore” (v. To disappear from time-to-time.).
It will be interesting (nay, fascinating) to watch Parker in his hometown arena play Wiggins with the eyes of the college basketball world glaring at him for the first time. Neither freshman will feel this much pressure again until the tournament starts. It will be interesting to see who, if either, can excel in that environment. I’m more than a little excited for this game.
And that’s to say nothing about the “undercard” between the top two teams in the country (according to the entirely subjective and predictive rankings of the Associated Press).
So, who else is good?
Well, we should probably start with the Louisville Cardinals, who return Russ Smith, who thought for some reason that he would be a coveted NBA Draftee, but lose Peyton Siva and (more importantly in my mind) Gorgui Dieng. Chane Behanan returns (and was just (literally as I was typing this paragraph) reinstated by Rick Pitino) as does Kevin Ware, whose recovery from tearing his leg apart was much faster than the “forever” I though it would be.
Arizona is also good and well coach, with Sean Miller still at the helm. The Wildcats bring in a great freshman class led by Aaron Gordon.
The Wildcats travel to Ann Arbor in mid-December for a game against the Michigan Wolverines that will be a big test for both teams. Look for the intriguing matchup of the freshman Gordon with Michigan’s “out of nowhere” NCAA tournament sensation Mitch McGary.
Outside of the traditional power conferences, Virginia Commonwealth and Wichita State are the cream of the crop, as both return key players from teams that made the tournament last season (with the Shockers advancing to the Final Four).
The one team who I think is on the outer fringes right now who could make a big run this season is Oregon, assuming they aren’t jet-lagged from having to open the season in South Korea.
Okay, I’ve Read Enough. Who Is Going to the Final Four?
Michigan State is. I love Tom Izzo coached teams. Michigan State won’t out finesse anyone, but they will brutalize everyone. The matchup tomorrow with Kentucky’s athletic young players will be really interesting to watch, but even if the Spartans fall, this is a team that is made for March and early April, led by the best coach in college basketball.
So is Kentucky. Last year’s weird mix of talented players with no rhythm is a thing of the past. This team resembles the championship team too much for me to ignore. I expect Julius Randle to play himself into the top pick of the NBA Draft.
I also really like Arizona. Sean Miller keeps getting teams close. This is the team to get over the top, led by the freshman Aaron Gordon who will lead the Pac-12 in rebounding.
And finally, VCU, which seems, I’m sure, like just trying to go against the grain, but much like with Michigan State, this is a team whose style is suited for March. They’re deep. They shoot well. And they run better than anyone else. And with a fairly easy regular season schedule, I expect VCU to have a fairly smooth path in the tournament, likely as a 2 or 3 seed.
In the finals, I like the contrast between Michigan State and VCU. It will be a physical, bruising, probably low-scoring affair, but ultimately, I like Michigan State to come out on top.
Who Is The Top 10 Team That Won’t Be There At The End of the Season?
Oklahoma State. I like Marcus Smart a lot. How could you not? But Oklahoma State is ranked in the top-10 right now because a really good player came back to school, not because they’re exceptionally deep or do anything really well. Le’Bryan Nash is a good player too. But again, my previous point…
Who Is The Player of the Year?
Julius Randle at Kentucky.
What Are The Chances That Any Of This Will Be Right?
21.35%.