mlb

Good Young Baseballing Men

/ Jason / 2 Comments

In 2012, I wrote the first installment of my MLB 25 and Under team. Remember Barack Obama’s first presidential term? Things were different then. 

That rotation (Kershaw, Strasburg, Bumgarner, Sale, Darvish) turned out to be really, really good, winning multiple Cy Young awards, as well as a couple World Series MVPs (and having a good Twitter presence, Yu). On offense, I selected Brett Lawrie as my third baseman and later in the post, questioned whether Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt were good enough all-around hitters. It was, let’s say, a mixed bag. 

I’d like to think my evaluation eye has gotten better over the years. One thing that has certainly gotten better is the number of really young players earning roles as valuable full-time Major League contributors. Over the last few weeks, we’ve seen three prospects make their Major League debuts in the playoffs. Two of them are pitchers. That’s literally never happened before. 

The biggest reason, I think, for this is that the 2020 season is a baseball fever dream. Teams are playing playoff games in empty stadiums that aren’t their own. Everyone is wearing masks in the dugout (some even covering their noses!). Perhaps most importantly though, rosters are bigger. Teams are playing games with a 28 man roster, which I am absolutely in support of going forward. The more the merrier. Especially when the “more” is more supremely talented 20 year olds whose service time clocks get to start running earlier than they have in the past. Because as much as I enjoy the minor leagues (unlike Rob Manfred), Amarillo, Texas is no place for Mackenzie Gore. 

We’ll probably never see an under-25 rotation quite like the 2012 iteration, but the guys you’ll see below will have plenty of time to prove themselves as equals to the Strasburgs and Sales of the world. Maybe not Kershaw, but that’s no slight to anybody. 

Quick note: eligibility, as previously established in the 2017 post, is that a player has to have been 25 year old or younger on the day the regular season ended (September 27, 2020). Apologies to all players born on or before September 27, 1994. 

Starting Pitchers (we’ll carry six because this is a 28 man roster):

Shane Bieber (Age 25) is a no-brainer in this category. He’s your presumptive AL Cy Young award winner after producing a gaudy 3.2 bWAR in just 12 starts in 2020. He punched out 122 in 77.1 IP. His ERA+ was 281. His stats were just completely off the charts. Had this been a 162 game season and he produced stats like this, we’d be talking about the greatest pitching season in modern MLB history. He’s improved dramatically in each of his three seasons and looks to be the cornerstone of the Cleveland rotation until they trade him in his first arbitration year. 

Germán Márquez (Age 25) has developed into a well-above league average pitcher despite pitching in Denver. He’ll give up a lot of homers, but has kept his career walk rate under 3 per 9 IP, which is not outstanding, but is a key to pitchers having success at Coors. Of concern, his K/9 rate has dropped each of the past two seasons, but given his sustained track record of success, he was the second surest pick. 

Jack Flaherty (Age 24) was excellent in 2019. He was not excellent in 2020. His K/9 rate stayed steady, but when he wasn’t striking out batters, he was giving up a lot of hits (1.2/9 more than in 2019). Likewise, he walked one more batter per 9. I’m willing to bet on 2020 being an aberration for the very talented Flaherty. 

Zach Plesac (Age 25) did a really selfish and stupid thing in 2020. It’s possible that Plesac could win multiple Cy Youngs in his career and all anyone will remember was Zach’s Night Out. When he wasn’t at the alternate camp site being punished for his stupidity, Plesac was outstanding. His WHIP was microscopic. His K/BB ratio was better than 9/1. The only thing worth concern with Plesac is his FIP, which is over a run higher than his ERA for his career. Even still, he’ll be a fixture of this rotation along with Shane Bieber, until they trade him in his first arbitration year.

And now…the rookies. The list of rookie starting pitchers on my preliminary list was long. Very long. Sixto Sanchez, Triston McKenzie, Nate Pearson, Tarik Skubal, Brady Singer, Casey Mize were just some of the names on that list. I went with Dustin May and Jesus Luzardo. 

Jesus Luzardo (Age 23) beat out Skubal in the battle of the lefties. I’m very high on Skubal, but Luzardo simply has the better stuff and the better command right now. I fully expect his unspectacular 2020 numbers to improve with a normal season in 2021. 

Dustin May (Age 23) was actually a no-brainer. The Dodgers have jerked him around a bit, as they tend to do. He should be a rotation fixture for the Dodgers for a very long time. To my eye, he has the best stuff of any young starter in baseball. He generates incredible movement on each of his pitches. He’s not striking out the number of hitters you would expect from a pitcher with his arsenal. And like Plesac, his ERA and FIP are wildly off. But when you watch May pitch, it just looks like you’re watching an ace work. If the Dodgers can just leave him in the rotation every fifth day in 2021 (assuming there is a 2021), you’re looking at a guy who can compete for a Cy Young. He’s that good. 

Bullpen (we’ll carry 8):

I’ve written this before, but the bullpen is the hardest part of this team to predict success for. A good reliever probably throws, at most, two elite pitches. Once the League figures out just one of those pitches, he becomes a dramatically less effective pitcher. A few of the guys on this list are currently fringe starting pitchers, but given the way baseball is going, having a reliever capable of getting six outs is increasingly more valuable. 

Brusdar Graterol (Age 22) should be the Dodgers’ closer already, but they’re willing to die by Kenley Jansen’s 88 mph cutter. Graterol came into the Majors as a starter, but was promptly moved to the bullpen when he arrived in Los Angeles (after the Boston Red Sox inexplicably didn’t want him…literally…they could have just had him for free). Graterol’s arsenal consists of a deadly 101 mph fastball that generates great movement. He projects as a high-upside closer. 

James Karinchak (Age 25) came a bit out of nowhere in 2020 after facing just 4 batters in 2019. He entered 2020 outside of Keith Law’s Top 20 Cleveland prospects. Likewise, he found himself outside of MLB Pipeline’s Top 20 list. So why is he here? Well, he struck out 17.7 batters per 9 IP in 2020. He also walked WAAAAY too many batters and there’s little belief in the scouting world that he can fix that. But that kind of strikeout ability doesn’t grow on trees. He has a well-above average fastball and curveball and if he can find some sort of command on that fastball, he moves into the elite reliever category. He’s worth betting on. 

Cal Quantrill (Age 25) is Karinchak’s teammate and fits into the category of “tweener.” Quantril is not quite good enough to go through a Major League lineup twice, nevermind three times, but he’s shown effectiveness as a multi-inning option, producing an excellent, if not probably unrealistic, 200 ERA+ in 2020 and a 2.25 conventional ERA. He won’t overpower anybody with stuff, but he’s missed bats, giving up less than 1 hit per inning. 

Caleb Fergueson (Age 24) is a lefty specialist for the Dodgers who didn’t suffer with the 3 batter minimum rule in 2020, dramatically lowering his walk rate and pitching to a sub-3.00 ERA. 

Adrian Morejón (Age 21) is here for potential. He’s young but has yet to show the kind of pitching skill that saw the Padres spend $11 million to sign him in 2016. To date, he’s given up far too much contact, especially home run contact, surrendering 7 homers in just 19.1 IP in 2020. But he strikes out 11.6 per 9 IP, so the stuff is there. 

Freddy Peralta (Age 24) is a converted starter (converted in that he failed miserably as a starter). Halfway through 2019, the Brewers realized that Peralta was awful in the first inning and moved him to the tweener bullpen role. He was very good in that role this year, pitching to a 2.41 FIP (his higher ERA indicates he was unlucky), while striking out 14.4 per 9, while surrendering just 2 homers all season. He should be a high-leverage bullpen arm for Milwaukee and, to me, is one of the surest things in this bullpen. 

Garrett Crochet (Age 21) has thrown exactly 6 innings in his career and might need Tommy John surgery. Still, he faced 22 batters and allowed 4 to reach base. None scored. Chicago could try him in the rotation in 2021 if healthy, but he’s a fairly limited pitcher in terms of arsenal and with Giolito, Kopech, Dunning, Keuchel, and Cease already there, he’d be much more valuable as a lefty reliever with strikeout ability than a starting pitcher for the Charlotte Knights. 

Genesis Cabrera (Age 24) celebrates a birthday as I write this capsule on October 10. Happy birthday Genesis! You were the last man to make this roster, just edging out Astros reliever Enoli Paredes. Genesis is a real boom or bust pitcher. He pitched to a dangerously high FIP in 2020, despite having only a 2.42 ERA. He’s a strikeout pitcher (like most of the guys here…that’s where upside lies in bullpens) with walk problems. Example: he only allowed 4 hits per 9 IP this season. But he walked 16 batters in 22 total IP. If his bullpen partner Alex Reyes was age-eligible, he would be here. He’s not though. 

Starting Lineup

Catchers: Will Smith (Age 25), Sean Murphy (Age 26…but 25 on the last day of the season)

Will Smith gets the nod here as the everyday catcher. He is, statistically, the second worst pitch framer in baseball. He is, however, an outstanding hitter, perhaps only behind JT Realmuto at this point in terms of overall hit tool. He walked nearly as often as he struck out in 2020, while hitting 8 homers, with a .401 OBP. Just off-the-charts offensive numbers for a young catcher. 

Murphy, by contrast, is an outstanding pitch framer who is in the next tier of hitting catchers below Smith and Realmuto. He should be Oakland’s starting catcher until they trade him in his final year of arbitration, in the way that they do.  

Infielders: Cody Bellinger (Age 25), Ozzie Albies (Age 23), Fernando Tatis Jr. (Age 21), Yoan Moncada (Age 25), Rafael Devers (Age 23), Gleyber Torres (Age 23), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Age 21), Wander Franco (Age 19) 

I may be wrong, but I think Bellinger is the only player in my lifetime who is a true Gold Glove centerfielder that also plays first base regularly. It’s a weird thing the Dodgers do with their roster. As I mentioned with the Dustin May blurb, they jerk a lot of players around, yo-yoing them between pitching roles and moving them all around the diamond. This is due in large part to a bloated Major League roster (kind of the rare case of too much talent being a bad thing). In some cases, it stagnates development (see: Lux, Gavin). And in other cases, like Bellinger, it allows people like me to question whether offensive struggles stem from inconsistency elsewhere in terms of job expectations. Look, Bellinger is coming off of a 2019 MVP campaign, so I’d be nuts to not have him on this team. But he sucked (comparatively) in 2020. He had an OPS under .800 for the first time in his career. His on-base percentage was a pedestrian .333. He was about 15 homers off of his 2019 pace. Basically, he regressed everywhere. I think LA would be very wise to just play him at first base full time. Yes, he’s valuable in CF. But he’s more valuable as a 9 WAR first baseman. 

Bellinger’s backup at first is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. I want to believe in Vladito. I really do. That’s why he’s here. It’s easy to forget that he’s only 21. So far, he’s been a case of the production not matching the hype. And it’s not like he’s not producing. In fact, his 2020 season looked very similar to Bellinger’s. And now that he’s off of 3B full-time, he’s not a total defensive liability for the Blue Jays. Next season (assuming it’s a relatively normal 162 game season) will be an important year for his development. I’m betting on him producing the kind of numbers (.400 OBP, 30 HR) that we expected from him. 

Over at second, we’ve got Ozzie Albies getting the starting nod. Ozzie only played in 29 regular season games this season, so it’s hard to get too in the weeds over his sub-100 OPS+. He hit 24 homers each of the previous two seasons and plays a good enough defensive second base to make him a 5 WAR per season player. Spectacular? No. Consistently reliable and worth being the starting second baseman on a fake team? Certainly. 

Backing Ozzie up is Gleyber Torres who took a very concerning step back in 2020. Coming off of a 38 homer campaign in the full 2019 season, Torres slugged 3 in 2020. 3. If you want to build that out to a full 162 game season it’s roughly not a lot of homers. Previously, Torres was a second baseman in New York, but with the departure of Didi Gregorious, he moved over to SS and cost the Yankees nearly 1 win defensively. The bright spot is that he still walked and got on base at a .356 clip. But the drop in power is something to watch and the clumsy defense at SS is enough of a reason to move him back to 2B full time. 

At third base, I’ve got Moncada and Devers, two players who put up monster numbers in 2019 (a combined 57 home runs with them sporting OPSs of .916 and .915 respectively). Then 2020 happened and like most things in 2020, they weren’t very good. Moncada’s power numbers were way down and frankly, he’s likely never going to be a 30 HR corner infielder. But he plays a fine defensive 3B. Devers, on the other hand, had the power numbers, hitting 11 homers in 57 games, but his defense at 3B stinks and he doesn’t possess nearly the same plate discipline as Moncada. The starting nod goes to the White Sox third baseman. 

When it came to the shortstop position, I didn’t have to do much thinking about the starter. It’s Fernando Tatis Jr. every day until he’s no longer eligible, much like with Mike Trout in previous iterations. Everything that Fernando Tatis Jr. does feels like appointment viewing. In the field he is dazzling. Does he need to improve his throwing to first? Sure. And I have no doubt he will. But if you hit a ball in his general vicinity, the ball will find its way to him. The ball wants to be close to Fernando. And it should. As a 21 year old, his numbers at the plate were jaw-dropping. His homer pace is equivalent to a 46 HR full season, with 30 SB to boot. As a leadoff hitter! If not for a late-season slump, we would be talking about a 21 year old NL MVP. Barring injury, we’re looking at the man who Major League Baseball should be marketing to every planet in the solar system for the next 15 years. He’s charismatic, beautiful, smart, humble, and has the ability to be a generational talent on the field. Of course, MLB will treat Pete Alonso like a superstar instead.

The question of who to back up Fernando was challenging and came down to Bo Bichette, Gavin Lux, and Wander Franco. I went with the 19 year old who has never played a game above Advanced-A ball. Franco is the consensus top prospect in baseball and has been for what feels like two seasons. He walks twice as much as he strikes out. He’s a switch hitter. He’s incredibly sound in the field for a 19 year old playing shortstop. He is, of course, all potential and Bichette has been, when healthy, a very good Major League shortstop. And Lux has performed at a higher tier of the developmental system to astounding production. But until he shows regression (and there’s no reason to believe he will), this should be Franco’s spot. 

Outfielders: Ronald Acuña Jr. (Age 22), Luis Robert (Age 23), Juan Soto (Age 21), Eloy Jimenez (Age 23)

I could write a lot of words about this outfield. I’m starting Robert in center where he’s a defensive superstar, shifting Acuña Jr. over to right and keeping Juan Soto at his natural left field, with Eloy DHing in my lineup on most days. 

Starting with Robert, he was a marvel in centerfield. He uses his elite speed and instincts to track every ball with precision. There isn’t a catch that he can’t make. At the plate, he looked like a rookie. His power is prodigious and when he hits the ball, the ball goes far. He missed the ball a lot in his rookie campaign, striking out 73 times in 227 PA. That said, we’re talking about a rookie who over a full season would be a 30 HR, 25 SB, all-world defensive centerfielder. If he becomes a more disciplined hitter, the American League is in serious trouble. Because…

standing to his right is Eloy Jiménez. In his second Major League season, Eloy’s offensive numbers improved across the board. Improved slash line. Higher home rate. Lower strikeout rate. He’s developing into the perfect cleanup hitter. Whereas Robert has potential to be a George Springer-type leadoff guy, Eloy is never going to be a patient enough hitter and frankly doesn’t need to be. His game is power and he has a lot of it (38 HR pace this season). Defensively, as I noted, he’ll be the DH on this team. 

And then there’s Juan and Ronald. At least in my mind, they’ll always be tethered together. They both took the NL by storm as rookies and have both become superstars before turning 23, with Soto being a valuable contributor to a World Series champion and Acuña potentially on the way to doing the same in 2020. There’s nothing Ronald Acuña cannot do on the baseball field, besides avoid getting hit by Miami Marlins pitchers. If not for Luis Robert’s world-class defense, I’d be more than comfortable leaving Acuña Jr. in CF. He bats leadoff for the Braves but would be an exceptional number 2 hitter, batting behind a lighter hitting leadoff man with great on-base abilities. His power is a little wasted as evidenced by his 2:1 RBI:HR ratio. But that’s a manager problem, not a Ronald problem. 

Juan Soto, at the age of 21, put up the Bondsian slash line of .351/.490/.695 this season. He walked more than he struck out. He led the Majors with a 1.185 OPS. He was 21 years old. I wrote last season that we (society) do a terrible job of appreciating greatness in the moment. Case in point, Soto’s rookie season as a 19 year old where he clocked a .406 OBP.  Soto is on his way to becoming a multi-time MVP and a first-ballot Hall of Fame player and he’s only played 3 years in the Majors. His first three seasons are right there with Frank Robinson, Hank Aaron, Mickey Mantle, Ken Griffey Jr., and Mike Trout. And sure, some stars burn out. Soto doesn’t look like that kind of star. He’s destined for greatness and to speak subjectively, I really appreciate having him on my team (this one and the Washington Nationals).

Batting Order: 

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.- SS
  • Ronald Acuña Jr- RF
  • Juan Soto- LF
  • Eloy Jiménez-DH 
  • Cody Bellinger- 1B
  • Yoan Moncada- 3B
  • Will Smith- C
  • Ozzie Albies- 2B
  • Luis Robert- CF

2018 MLB Preview and A Long Rant About Labor Practices

/ Jason / 1 Comment

This truly was the longest winter. Putting aside the frigid temperatures across the country and the large quantities of snow falling in the northeast and the mere existence of it in places like northern Florida, this winter dragged. From a strictly baseball standpoint, long periods of time elapsed between free agent signings.

Perhaps as a result of front offices being made up of savvy, economist-types (which is mostly a good thing), almost every team seemed to realize that, for many, many years, they had been paying players for past production. Jake Arrieta, the best free agent starting pitcher on the market, had to wait until the middle of Spring Training to receive a contract offer that he approved of. That contract, for a recent Cy Young award winner, was, essentially, a front-loaded 3 year contract (Philadelphia has two club options at $20 million each). It’s certainly easy to cherry-pick bad contracts, so let’s do that. Two years ago, the offseason following Arrieta’s Cy Young win, Mike Leake signed a 5 year deal worth $80 million. Another way to look at that is that Mike Leake received $5 million more in guaranteed money than Jake Arrieta. What other starting pitchers received more guaranteed money in that cycle (just 2 years ago!) than Jake from Not State Farm did this year? Funny you should ask:

Wei-Yin Chen
Jeff Samardzija
Jordan Zimmermann
Johnny Cueto
Zack Greinke
David Price

I count, at best, 2 guys there who definitely should have gotten paid more than Arrieta, based on expected future production at the time.

And Jake was not alone. Greg Holland saves a lot of baseball games. You can decide how important that sentence is to you. Still, last year he saved 41 games for the Colorado Rockies. He made the All-Star team. And he’s unemployed.

In years past, it is not an exaggeration to say that any one of 8 playoff-contending teams would have thrown 3 years in Greg Holland’s direction. Remember that 2015-16 offseason? Joakim Soria, Ryan Madson, Shawn Kelley, and Tony Sipp all received 3 year guaranteed contracts. None of those pitchers was coming off a season close to Holland’s 2017 season.

In that 2016 offseason, again, just 2 years ago, 8 players received contracts exceeding $80 million in total value. In this offseason, only 4 players received a contract with a total amount greater than $80 million (Eric Hosmer, Yu Darvish, J.D. Martinez, and Justin Upton). Ironically, Justin Upton is on both lists (his 2016 contract had an “opt-out” clause).

The answer to the question, “Why this dramatic shift?” has little to do with the quality of the free agent class. No matter who the top free agents are, teams, in the past, were always more than willing to throw big money at bad ideas. Albert Pujols has been relegated to full-time DH on account of being old and very bad. You see, every single person ages and when you age, your skills diminish. Unfortunately for the Los Angeles Anaheim California Angels, they didn’t take this into account when they gave Albert Pujols a 10 year contract in 2012 to congratulate him for all that he had previously accomplished with the St. Louis Cardinals. The Angels will be paying Pujols roughly $116 million over the next four seasons. Last year, Pujols was one of the absolute worst full-time players in Major League Baseball, posting an embarrassing .672 OPS and a sub-1.00 bWAR. In fact, Pujols hasn’t had an OPS of .800 or above since 2012, ironically when he was a St. Louis Cardinal.

“This is good news for me then!” you say, because you’ve been programmed to support your benevolent business overlords. “With teams spending their money more wisely, manipulating the service time of young superstars to gain an extra year of cheap club-control, I will pay less for tickets and concessions! Huzzah.”

Please, I implore you, let me know when your favorite team’s millionaire or billionaire owner decides that he has enough money and would like to give you a break on your night out to the old ballyard.

Rooting for the business interests of baseball will get you nowhere. You will not save money on your tickets. Your team will not “save” their money they didn’t spend in 2017-18 to spend big on a free agent like Manny Machado or Bryce Harper. If you are a fan of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Tampa Bay Rays, Cincinnati Reds, Miami Marlins (ha), etc. your team will not be entering the Bryce Sweepstakes because they had the impulse control to not throw a four year deal at Greg Holland. The Ronald Acunas and Kris Bryants of the world will continue to be sent to AAA clubs for three weeks at the expense of the immediate on-field success of their team(s) to save some money 6 years down the road. The owner(s) of your favorite team will continue to use their teams as a money-making venture, because, and this may come as a shock, that’s what they are. While you think you’re rooting for a logo and a uniform, you’re really rooting for a rich man’s business venture. It’s like standing outside of a Target, chanting “We Will Rock You.” Poll all 30 ownership groups anonymously and ask a simple question: “Would you rather win a World Series and lose $50 million or miss the playoffs and turn a $50 million profit?” In short, start rooting for the laborers and not for the logos. In baseball, in the classroom, at construction sites. Everywhere.
——————-

And with that…..let’s preview the 2018 season.

AL EAST

Ah, nostalgia. Remember when the AL East was a two-horse race to the top and a three mule race to the bottom? Well, welcome back to the turn of the century! John Bolton’s got a government job again and the Red Sox and Yankees are battling it out for a division crown, while the Blue Jays, Orioles, and Rays are in varying stages of “trying to stay afloat.”

The division crown should go to the Yankees who have the more reliable bullpen and a deeper pool of starting pitchers. Both offenses should score a lot of runs. The Yankees’ offense is probably a hair better, but I truly don’t think that’s where the difference lies. Both teams should win between 95-100 games, given that they’ll play more than 1/3 of their schedule against Tampa, Toronto, and Baltimore.

1. New York Yankees 99-63
2. Boston Red Sox 94-68
3. Baltimore Orioles 80-82
4. Toronto Blue Jays 74-88
5. Tampa Bay Rays 62-100

AL CENTRAL

No team made more free agency splashes, it seems, than the Minnesota Twins, in that they actually got into the pool, signing Lance Lynn, Logan Morrison, Fernando Rodney, and Addison Reed, while also trading for Jake Odorizzi.

Much like the AL East, this is 2-team race between Minnesota and Cleveland. The White Sox, Tigers, and Royals just do not have the pieces to compete this year. Kansas City, frankly, doesn’t have the pieces to compete any time soon.

I think Minnesota closed the gap on Cleveland a bit, but they still lack the starting pitching to get the job done as consistently as the Indians will with Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and Trevor Bauer. And that doesn’t even get into the 8th and 9th innings when Cleveland has Andrew Miller and Cody Allen and the Twins offer up the aforementioned Reed and Rodney.

1. Cleveland Indians 94-68
2. Minnesota Twins 89-73
3. Detroit Tigers 70-92
4. Chicago White Sox 65-97
5. Kansas City Royals 64-98

AL WEST

In trading for Gerrit Cole, the Astros sacrificed their future a bit to get better today. Keep in mind, this is still an organization with Forrest Whitley and Kyle Tucker at the top of their minor league rankings, so they’re not bleeding young talent by any stretch. No team in baseball is better constructed for 2018 playoff success than the Astros. The questions will likely lie with the bullpen, but this is a team with the resources to go out in July and improve their bullpen through trades.

Elsewhere in the battle for the second AL Wild Card spot…

Unlike the other two divisions, each team in the AL West has a legitimate chance to finish second and possibly get a Wild Card berth. Oakland has a vastly improved offense, but may struggle to keep other teams off the board. A similar story resides in Orange County, where the Angels brought back Justin Upton, brought in Ian Kinsler, and signed potential two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, but lack the starting pitching depth or bullpen to make anyone comfortable anointing them a playoff team. Seattle is probably the most balanced of the teams in this division. No aspect of the M’s will wow you, but there are no glaring red flags, save for depth in the rotation after Mike Leake. And Texas is a total wild card. A patchwork rotation. A lineup of mostly low-OBP mashers. A bullpen of taped-together balsa wood. I get the feeling Texas will either finish second or last. And I tend to think it’s the latter.

1. Houston Astros 103-59
2. Seattle Mariners 86-76
3. Oakland Athletics 82-82
4. Anaheim Angels 79-83
5. Texas Rangers 75-87

AL Playoffs

Boston over Minnesota in the wild card game because Chris Sale v. Minnesota-By-Committee is a battle Sale wins every time.

ALDS: Houston over Boston in 4, New York over Cleveland in 5

ALCS: Houston over New York in 5

WASHINGTON NATIONALS

2017 ended frustratingly for the Washington Nationals. This is a fairly common refrain. Simply plug in a different year and the result remains both the same and true.

2018 will likely end in a similar fashion. The odds just sort of work out that way. For teams like the White Sox, your goal in 2018 is to keep your excellent young starting pitchers (Reynaldo Lopez, Lucas Giolito, Carson Fulmer, Michael Kopech, Dylan Covey, Alec Hansen, and Dane Dunning) healthy. That’s really it. You’d love for as many of those pitchers as possible to be healthy going into 2019 when the goal should be to sneak into the playoffs riding the arms of 4 or 5 electric mid-20s pitchers.

For a team like the Washington Nationals, 2019 doesn’t really matter. At the end of the 2018 season, franchise cornerstone Bryce Harper will be an unrestricted free agent. Lose Harper and you’re losing about 5-7 wins above replacement. You’re also losing a major attraction and a marketable young star. And you’re doing it at a time when you’ve bled organizational depth (past Victor Robles and Juan Soto) trying to put a World Series winner onto the field.

There will be some/many Washington Nationals “fans” who will expect Harper to take a hometown discount. Say the Nationals lose in the NLDS this season. Those “fans” will take nothing less than Bryce Harper accepting a one year deal to go for it one more time. And when he doesn’t take that one year deal, and instead signs a 7 year deal with ___________ (fill in the blank…it doesn’t matter), he’ll get booed when he comes back to DC. And that sucks.

The repeated failings of the Washington Nationals in the postseason (or rampant regular season success depending on through which prism you choose to view all of this), do not fall solely on the shoulders of Bryce Harper, just as it didn’t fall on the shoulders of Drew Storen or Jordan Zimmermann or whomever was the scapegoat in that Dodgers series (honestly, I forget). Everyone gets blame. Mike Rizzo gets blame. Davey Johnson, Matt Williams, and Dusty Baker get blame. And yes, each player gets a varying degree of blame.

Knowing that 2018 is essentially a “now or never” season (I prefer “shit or get off the pot” season), the Nationals remained largely inert during the winter months. There was no success in improving the starting pitching from 2017. There was no success in improving the bullpen (in fact, I think the bullpen as constructed today is slightly worse than the one from last October). And there was no success in improving an already very good offense, albeit not perfect and not the best in the National League. The Washington Nationals will take the field in Cincinnati, Ohio on Thursday (Friday…stupid rain) looking very similar to how they looked on October 12, 2017. Gone will be Jayson Werth. Healthy will be Adam Eaton. But that’s it. In theory, Gio Gonzalez will still start a potential Game 3 in the playoffs. Brandon Kintzler is still the 7th inning guy. Enny Romero is the best left handed option out of the pen (non-Sean Doolittle division). There’s a different manager in the dugout, and that should make the Nationals situationally better. But really, that’s window dressing. It’s the most important season in franchise history. And if that history is an indicator of what’s to come, well, set your radars to “disappointed.”

THE REST OF THE NL EAST

I sincerely think that the Philadelphia Phillies can make a run at the playoffs this year. I also think that no other team, even the White Sox, is poised to make the jump from bad to very good as quickly as Philadelphia. I loved the Jake Arrieta signing from a Philadelphia Phillies business perspective, because given the talent already on the field in South Philly and the talent scattered throughout their minor league system (but especially at High-A Clearwater), 2020 should be the year that Philadelphia contends for a World Series.

As for this year, there’s something to be excited about at nearly every turn for the Phillies. Though they overpaid for Carlos Santana, adding a high-OBP, top of the order hitter will only help the development of Rhys Hoskins. Elsewhere, the Phillies were not overly cautious with rookie Scott Kingrey, signing him to a long-term extension and putting him on the Opening Day roster. That should pay immediate dividends and give the new manager some flexibility in how he constructs his lineup day-to-day.

I’m excited to see what Gabe Kapler can do as the most advanced metrics-inclined manager we’ve seen in the modern game. If he succeeds, it will change dugouts across the sport. And if he fails, well, it’ll give the baseball dinosaurs one last opportunity to crow about the importance of moving runners and “the little things.”

Wrapping up this overlong capsule of the NL East, don’t expect the Atlanta Braves to contend in 2018, but look forward to the arrival of Ronald Acuna Jr. in mid-April and, further down the road, look forward to their battling with the Phillies for baseball supremacy in 2020.

The Mets and Marlins are also baseball teams. Though, in the case of the Marlins, the jury remains in deliberation.

1. Washington Nationals 91-71
2. Philadelphia Phillies 85-77
3. New York Mets 79-83
4. Atlanta Barves 78-84
5. Miami Marlins 44-118

NL CENTRAL

The Chicago Cubs are going to win this division. The amount of depth that the Cubs possess cannot be matched by any other team here. That goes for starting pitching. That goes for the batting order. It probably even goes for bullpen depth, though that’s more a result of no one in this division having a particularly strong and deep bullpen.

Chicago’s lineup is the best in the National League and I’d argue the best in baseball, 1-8. And there’s flexibility there. You have super-sub Ben Zobrist who can pinch hit and play at 6 different positions. Then there’s Albert Almora Jr. who would be a starter on nearly every other team in the Majors. On this team, he’s playing behind Kyle Schwarber and Ian Happ in most situations, though he will fill in nicely for the former against left-handed starting pitchers. And at the corners, you’ve got the sport’s most dangerous 1-2 punch in Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo. And they signed Yu Darvish this offseason, as well as Tyler Chatwood, who I expect to be a big upgrade for them in the number 5 spot.

Up I-94, the Milwaukee Brewers made a number of changes, seemingly in the span of a few hours in January. Ryan Braun moves to first base to make room for Christian Yelich, acquired via trade from the AAA Miami Marlins. Meanwhile, Lorenzo Cain joined on a fairly baffling 5 year deal. The problem for Milwaukee is a pretty glaring one though and that’s a real lack of starting pitchers. Chase Anderson and Zach Davies are a perfectly fine set of Major League starting pitchers. They are not Yu Darvish and Jon Lester. They’re not Clayton Kershaw and literally any other living person. And yet, Anderson and Davies will need to perform beyond expectation to keep this rotation (rounded out by Jhoulys Chacin, Brent Suter, and an injured Jimmy Nelson) afloat.

Also cashing in on the Miami Marlins being a living embarrassment were the St. Louis Cardinals, who added Marcell Ozuna, but still have a concerning lack of power in their lineup and, like Milwaukee, some real question marks in the rotation.

Cincinnati and Pittsburgh have no desire to contend this year, so we won’t talk about them. Likewise, their fans should not go to their games.

1. Chicago Cubs 99-63
2. St. Louis Cardinals 88-74
3. Milwaukee Brewers 84-78
4. Pittsburgh Pirates 69-93
5. Cincinnati Reds 65-97

NL WEST

Though their field flooded with human excrement on Tuesday night, everything else seems to be going mostly fine for the Dodgers. Matt Kemp is back and looks more like a baseball player and less like the assistant manager at an Arby’s. Yasiel Puig also looks like a fit human. Clayton Kershaw is still a Dodger, and other than a broken bone to Justin Turner’s hand, everyone else is healthy following a season that took LA within 27 outs of a World Series. This is LA’s division to run away with. Can anyone catch them?

Maybe.

But probably not.

The Diamondbacks are intriguing because they have five good starting pitchers. The Rockies are intriguing because they built a super bullpen and their hitters still get to hit baseballs in Denver 81 days per year. San Francisco is not terribly intriguing, though they added Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria to a team that scored roughly 45 total runs last season, so they can only be a help. And the San Diego Padres are currently slated to play the 2018 Major League season.

The fatal flaw for each is pretty obvious. Arizona is light-hitting, outside of Paul Goldschmidt. Take away JD Martinez’s mid-season acquisition and they were, statistically, a below average Major League team at the plate in 2017. They’re a team that will always hit a lot of doubles and triples because their ballpark is a comical place. But when it comes to home run production, without Martinez, they would have been a few notches below the Kansas City Royals last year. Note: JD Martinez was replaced in right field by Jarrod Dyson who has 12 home runs in his 1900+ career plate appearances.

Colorado’s fatal flaw is the only one that can’t be immediately fixed. What makes them so intriguing is also what makes them so scary to bet on. The Rockies have good young pitchers in Jon Gray, Jeff Hoffman, Kyle Freeland, and Tyler Anderson. The issue is that it’s hard to limit runs in the thin air of Denver, CO, as well as the entire Pacific Coast League. Super Bullpen or not.

A quick note on the Padres who I made fun of earlier. They will be bad. They will be very bad. They threw a lot of money at a first baseman who is not an all-world player by any metric. Eric Hosmer struggled to hit for power in Kansas City. He will surely struggle to hit for power in San Diego. That said, the Padres have a very exciting farm system and if AJ Preller has an ounce of impulse control in the next two years, he’ll retain a lot of that talent and be able to build a fun, young, exciting team, centered around future household names Fernando Tatis Jr., Luis Urias, and MacKenzie Gore. But for now, get your house familiar with Freddy Galvis, Chase Headley 2.0, and Matt Szczur.

Los Angeles Dodgers 91-71
Colorado Rockies 85-77
Arizona Diamondbacks 82-82
San Francisco Giants 77-85
San Diego Padres 65-97

NL Playoffs

Philadelphia Phillies beat Colorado Rockies in one-game playoff to determine 2nd NL Wild Card.

Philadelphia Phillies beat St. Louis Cardinals in actual Wild Card game

NLDS: Chicago over Philadelphia in 3, Washington over Los Angeles in 5

NLCS: Chicago over Washington in 6

WORLD SERIES

Houston over Chicago in 6.

Sure, I could have picked something cute like the Twins over the Phillies, but Chicago and Houston are the two best teams in baseball right now, today, March 28. Trades can and will happen in June, July, and August. So all of this is just fun and games.

I give Houston the edge because of their rotation. I’ve been guilty of falling in love with deep starting rotations before (Philadelphia’s Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Oswalt one comes to mind), but the thing with Houston is that their offense is probably better than their rotation. And their rotation is baseball’s best. The only thing that derails Houston is a long-term injury to Carlos Correa or Jose Altuve. Outside of that, I see baseball’s first repeat World Series champion in 18 years.

AWARDS

AL Rookie of the Year: Gleyber Torres (IF/New York Yankees)
NL Rookie of the Year: Ronald Acuna Jr. (OF/Atlanta Braves)

AL Cy Young: Chris Sale (Boston Red Sox)
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles Dodgers)

AL MVP: Carlos Correa (SS/Houston Astros)
NL MVP: Jason Heyward (OF/Chicago Cubs)

….I kid!

NL MVP: Bryce Harper (OF/Washington Nationals)

———

And for what it’s worth, I think Bryce will sign with the Cubs next offseason. But in the interim, I’ll enjoy being able to watch him in DC for as long as either of us are in this swamp.

2016 MLB Preview

/ Jason / Leave a comment

Narrative intros are fun and all, but let’s just skip the amuse-bouche, shall we, and get to the entree.

AL EAST
I wrote in my 2015 preview that all five teams had a fatal flaw and that holds true in 2016 too. Toronto’s rotation is very thin after Marcus Stroman and (maybe) Marco Estrada. The Yankees have a lineup that reeks of regression, from Jacoby Ellsbury to Carlos Beltran to Alex Rodriguez to Mark Teixeira. And to boot, they will be without two of their fearsome relieving troika for at least the first month of the season (Aroldis Chapman: suspension, Andrew Miller: injury (NOTE: Miller says he will pitch through his wrist injury…). The Orioles wish they had a starting pitching situation like Toronto’s. The Red Sox have a Maybach, in David Price, riding on four shitty used tires from a salvage yard just hoping not to fall off the car by mid-April. And the Tampa Bay Rays have an offense that wouldn’t look so bad if Logan Morrison, Logan Forsythe, and Brad Miller were any good.

Last year, I took the team with the least glaring issue (Toronto) to win the division. Little did I know that the Blue Jays would prove me right, but only after making two blockbuster trade deadline moves. This year, I like the Yankees, insomuch as I am contractually obligated to pick one of these teams to make the playoffs.

1. New York Yankees
2. Toronto Blue Jays
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Tampa Bay Rays
5. Baltimore Orioles

AL CENTRAL
Baseball’s most wide-open division, 1-5. You could make a reasonable-enough argument for any of these five teams to win the division. Cleveland has the powerhouse rotation. Kansas City has the experience (oh, and the really good defense and bullpen). Chicago has Chris Sale and some other guys. Detroit has a very good offense, albeit one that probably needs to get it done quickly if they are ever going to win a World Series. And Minnesota has more prospects than Alicia Vikander at speed-dating.

Cleveland will have trouble scoring runs with any great proclivity, especially with the corner outfield spots being manned by Rajai Davis and Marlon Byrd to start the season. Francisco Lindor is a special talent, but he doesn’t have the kind of home run pop that his fellow special SS talent Carlos Correa does. All of that said, Cleveland’s rotation and bullpen might be enough to keep them in games that clubs like the Orioles and Red Sox would lose because of who they’re pitching in their 2-5 spots.

For Kansas City, I feel as though, at some point, not having good starting pitchers has to catch up to you. And let’s be clear: the Royals do not have good starting pitchers. I’m sure Chris Young and Kris Medlen are fine people, but for either of them to be starting pitchers on a World Series contender just seems…wrong?

Chicago and Detroit aren’t worth me burning myself out here. The White Sox made some nice offensive upgrades, but their bullpen is undesirable. Detroit added Jordan Zimmermann and Justin Upton to a team that struggled quite a bit in 2015. I’m not sure that at this stage in their careers, moving to the American League and to a pitcher’s park, respectively, will really do much to boost either’s contribution. If we just assume that Zimmermann and Upton are taking over for straight replacement-level players, we are only talking about a combined 7.5 wins. That gets Detroit to a .500 record. And while I realize that isn’t exactly how WAR works, it’s important to also remember that WAR doesn’t work the other way. Simply adding a name like Justin Upton does not guarantee success. It sounds really nice, but if you’re not upgrading elsewhere in the lineup, then you are what you were, but just a little better.

Minnesota is very, very intriguing. Between Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, and Jose Berrios, they’ve got the makings of a World Series contender. Only, perhaps in 2018. Once Berrios replaces Ricky Nolasco or Tom Milone, the Twins will be a must-watch club every fifth day. Until then, you’ve got some exciting young guys, an All-Star second baseman (Brian Dozier), a former All-Star in Joe Mauer, and some less-than complimentary pieces. That doesn’t make them boring, certainly, but it also doesn’t make them a contender quite yet.

1. Cleveland Indians
2. Kansas City Royals
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Minnesota Twins
5. Detroit Tigers

AL WEST
Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros.

Now that I’ve gotten that out of my system…

This is a two horse race between the Texas Rangers and a club I have previously mentioned. Texas has the potential to hit teams with a 1-2 combo unlike any other in this division with Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish. After them, it’s like Russian Roulette but there are extra bullets in the chamber and you’re the only one playing. The Astros have the reigning Cy Young winner in Dallas Keuchel, an electric prospect in Lance McCullers, and a group of Major League-quality veteran starters (Collin McHugh, Doug Fister, and Mike Fiers).

Texas’ offense is probably deeper and better, all-around, than Houston’s, but the Astros probably have the best two players in Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa.

Look, there are no perfect baseball teams. Even the Cubs aren’t perfect. But Houston and Texas are really, really good. Ultimately, their goodness and the rest of this division’s mediocrity to poorness won’t mean much because both will likely make the playoffs. In fact, I would almost expect them to finish 1, 2 in terms of best record in the AL, after feasting on mediocre Seattle, subpar Los Angeles, and hilariously, sublimely awful Oakland all year.

1. Texas Rangers
2. Houston Astros
3. Seattle Mariners
4. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, California Angels
5. Oakland Athletics

AL PLAYOFFS
Wild Card: Houston over Kansas City
A revenge win for the Astros after Kansas City staved off elimination in their 2015 ALDS series. A rested Dallas Keuchel is better than anything the Royals could currently throw out there, even given Kansas City’s recent dominance in must-win games.

ALDS: Houston over Texas, Cleveland over New York
It’s hard to bet against a team that puts Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish on the bump twice in a Best-of-5, but I have that much faith in Lance McCullers and Collin McHugh. Add in the expected midseason call-up of AJ Reed at first base and I think Houston will have leveled the offensive playing field with Texas.

Cleveland’s rotation wipes the Yankees out of the playoffs in a blur

ALCS: Houston over Cleveland
Here is where Cleveland’s run-scoring issues and 1-3 rotation become a problem. None of Kluber, Carrasco, or Salazar will have ever pitched this late into a season. I can easily see Terry Francona eschewing a Trevor Bauer playoff start for throwing Salazar back out there, only to see a tiring young arm getting battered by the playoff-tested Astros. There’s a lot to be said about rotation depth in the playoffs. Getting a big start or two from your number 3 or four starter is key. Collin McHugh and Doug Fister are veteran starters and groundball pitchers who can neutralize a team that struggles to score runs, like the Indians.

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NL EAST
We aren’t going to spend much time talking about the Braves or Phillies. Both actually had productive offseasons, but that productivity won’t start to pay dividends until next season, at the earliest.

For Miami, I see a team with absolutely no identity. Never fully committed to a rebuild. Never fully committed to paying the cost to succeed, the Marlins are, as always, who we thought they were. I expect their exciting young outfield (Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, and Giancarlo Stanton) to be far more productive in 2016 than they were last season. But is Dee Gordon really an All-Star? Was Wei-Yin Chen worth that contract? Will they trade Jose Fernandez, midseason, to a prospect-laden playoff team in need of a boost (Kansas City and the Dodgers come to mind)? Who really knows? The bullpen is paper thin and the starting rotation beyond Fernandez and Chen is AAA.

To steal a tagline from this season of the Real Housewives of Beverly Hills, the Washington Nationals are an enigma wrapped in a riddle and cash. This offseason they targeted Ben Zobrist to play second base. They ended up with Daniel Murphy. They made a push for Yoenis Cespedes. Instead they traded for Ben Revere. They replaced Jordan Zimmermann with a guy they demoted to the bullpen at the start of last season. And they hired Bud Black to be their manager, which is why Dusty Baker will be in the dugout on Opening Day.

Meanwhile, Stephen Strasburg is a free agent at the end of the season and if you think that he is going to re-sign with the Nats, I have a beautiful oceanfront property to sell you in eastern South Dakota. But will the Nats trade Strasburg at the trade deadline if they are 10 games behind the Mets? Of course not. Because this is the team that thought Ben Zobrist and Yoenis Cespedes wanted to play in front of 21,000 people a night, instead of playing at Wrigley Field and in New York City, respectively.

The Nationals are their own enigma. Or maybe they’re a riddle. They certainly have plenty of cash. It’s just that I’m not sure they know what to do with that cash. They didn’t want to give it to a very competent manager. But then they gave a lot of it to a second baseman who can’t defend his or any position on the diamond. They didn’t bother working on a long-term extension with reigning NL MVP Bryce Harper (at least publicly). And they didn’t seem to make any passing offer to Stephen Strasburg, indicating that they too know that he’ll be departing the club for Los Angeles or San Diego at the first chance (note: I don’t place one iota of blame on Stephen for that). But they also didn’t sell a full year of Strasburg to a desperate club like the Dodgers who missed out on a free agent starting pitcher.

All of this is to say, the New York Mets have a really great starting rotation (probably the best I’ve seen since the Phillies had Halladay, Lee, Hamels, and Oswalt) and an offense that is more than good enough to win the NL East again.

1. New York Mets
2. Washington Nationals
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. Miami Marlins
5. Atlanta Braves

NL CENTRAL
It probably sucks to be a Milwaukee Brewers or Cincinnati Reds fan. I mean, you couldn’t combine the two clubs into anything resembling a contender in this division. Look, I’ll try (I did this last year with Arizona and Colorado):

C Jonathan Lucroy
1B Joey Votto
2B Brandon Phillips
3B Aaron Hill
SS Zack Cozart
LF Ryan Bruan
CF Billy Hamilton
RF Jay Bruce

SP Wily Peralta
SP Raisel Iglesias
SP Michael Lorenzen
SP Matt Garza
SP Taylor Jungmann

If you look at that team and think, “Yeah, playoffs,” you haven’t watched baseball for a few years. Because Brandon Phillips, Ryan Braun, and Jay Bruce might be nice names to look at, but they are all shells of their former selves. And that rotation…I’m having a panic attack.

Whereas the AL Central is wide open, but kind of iffy, this three horse race between the Pirates, Cardinals, and Cubs is going to be a blast. Great lineups. Good-to-great bullpens. Arguably 3 of the game’s 10 best right-handed starters (Gerrit Cole, Jake Arrieta, Adam Wainwright). What separates these clubs?

Chicago’s lineup. They’re not the best staff (I give that, by a nose, to St. Louis). They’re not the best bullpen (that’s Pittsburgh). They’re not the best defensive club (that’s probably Pittsburgh too). But Chicago’s lineup is truly a murderer’s row of historic proportions. The young superstars were very, very good last year. But consider that Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, and Kyle Schwarber now have another year under their belts. Then consider that they added Ben Zobrist, a machine created to get on-base, to replace Starlin Castro or Javy Baez. And then, if that weren’t enough, Jason Heyward. And now, if he can adapt to that role, you have a potential superstar in Jorge Soler serving as a pinch-hitter in the National League. And who manages the Cubs? Inarguably the best in-game manager in the Majors.

Is the hype machine really, really loud for Chicago? Sure. Has that worked out well for any team in recent years (2014 Nationals *cough*)? It has not. But something (somethings) will have to go terribly, terribly wrong in Chicago if the Cubs do not, at the very least, make the playoffs. And as we’ve seen, once you make the playoffs, everyone has a chance.

1. Chicago Cubs
2. St. Louis Cardinals
3. Pittsburgh Pirates
4. Cincinnati Reds
5. Milwaukee Brewers

NL WEST
The most shocking move of this offseason was easily the Arizona Diamondbacks swooping in and taking Zack Greinke from the Dodgers. It was the kind of move that had me walking up to strangers asking them if they heard the news (I was at a holiday party). The Diamondbacks then made one of the most short-sighted trades in recent memory by sending 2015 top overall MLB Draft pick Dansby Swanson, top 100 prospect Aaron Blair, and Ender Inciarte (a good and useful outfielder) to Atlanta (as though trading Touki Toussaint to the Braves last season for nothing wasn’t enough) for Shelby Miller, a perfectly serviceable mid-rotation starter.

The Diamondbacks think they are in win-now mode. They spent the offseason raiding their farm system of its high-end talent to build what looks like a contender to, well, someone? I don’t see it at all. One elite offensive player (Paul Goldschmidt) and a very, very good one (AJ Pollock) does not, and never has, equaled glory. If Zack Greinke is still a Diamondback on Opening Day 2018, I will gladly eat crow, blue jay, and diamondback.

Remember last year when we (the collective baseball universe) talked a lot about the San Diego Padres? Yeah, that seems like it was a really long time ago. They’re different now. Better? Eh. Maybe.

The NL West race comes down to the Dodgers and Giants for most, but for me, this is the Giants’ division to lose. Could their offense use some additional power? Sure. Is their bullpen aging? Yes. Am I uncertain about their number five starter (probably Chris Heston, maybe Jake Peavy)? Yep. Am I nitpicking? Absolutely.

The Dodgers have been so ravaged by injuries and the Greinke signing that I just don’t see them recovering to make any real noise. Clayton Kershaw is still the best pitcher on the planet. But he is only 4% of the Dodgers roster. Corey Seager is the National League’s answer to Carlos Correa. But he too is only 4%. There are a lot of other pieces on this club that need to perform better than history indicates they can and better than their age says they should, for the Dodgers to challenge the Giants. Especially in an even year.

The Colorado Rockies.

1. San Francisco Giants
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
3. Arizona Diamondbacks
4. San Diego Padres
5. Colorado Rockies

NL PLAYOFFS
Wild Card: St. Louis over Pittsburgh
They start the MLB season against each other and begin the playoffs against each other. I give St. Louis the win based on home-field advantage and Adam Wainwright’s very good postseason record (3.03 ERA, 1.09 WHIP). He’s a workhorse that can give the Cardinals 7 and turn it over to their bullpen of guys America Has Never Heard of Who Can Throw 100 MPH.

NLDS: Chicago over St. Louis, San Francisco over New York
I’ve talked a lot about Chicago and for good reason. I think their biggest flaw is in their rotational depth. Jake Arrieta is a sure-fire ace. But Jon Lester and John Lackey are aging starters. If they hold up for six months, the Cubs will still need at least 3 starts from both (but likely more) where they can bridge it to the backend of the Cubs’ bullpen. Chicago would be wise to add a few bullpen arms at the deadline, no matter the trade cost. You don’t want to have your season end because your middle relief couldn’t get you to the 8th or 9th inning. Ask the 2015 Astros about that. Or the Blue Jays. (All of this said, Chicago’s lineup is, just to reiterate, really, really good)

The Giants beating the Mets might be an upset to some, but, again, it’s an even numbered year. But more importantly, San Francisco can go with Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija, and Matt Cain in a playoff series. And more realistically, they can go with the best 3 of that group in a Best-of-5 series. Are Bumgarner, Cueto, and Samardzija better than Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard? Some would say “no.” I would probably agree. But the gap isn’t nearly as wide as that between the Mets’ Yoenis Cespedes-centric offense, and San Francisco’s balanced approach with Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, Joe Panik, Hunter Pence, etc.

NLCS: San Francisco over Chicago
…and this is where it all goes to hell.

The problem with a really great offense, even one as nearly flawless as Chicago’s, is that slumps seem to be contagious. It’s really hard (read: impossible) to predict a slump for a powerful offense six days away from a series, nevermind six months. But the Championship Series is where, it seems, great offenses have recently gone to die. The Cubs last year. The Blue Jays last year. Those are just the most recent examples.

As long as Madison Bumgarner is healthy and the Giants are in the playoffs, they are a team to be avoided. And with the depth they added to their rotation (and let me be clear: I think Johnny Cueto will be a Cy Young contender pitching in San Francisco this season), the Giants are poised to keep this very weird “even year” thing going.

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WORLD SERIES
San Francisco over Houston

Do you like orange?

You’ll probably read this as one of two things: 1.) He’s trying to jinx the Giants and/or 2.) He’s leaning too heavily on something that is truly just an aberration (the “even year” thing). Trust me, I’m not.

San Francisco’s lineup isn’t anywhere near as good as Chicago’s. It’s not the 1927 Yankees. But what it is is balanced. I keep using that word. But there’s speed (Span, Pagan). There’s great contact hitting (Belt, Panik). There’s power (Posey, Pence). And the Giants are as well managed as any team short of the Cubs.

As for Houston, AJ Hinch is a rare example of a former player who is a competent manager. I watched more Astros games last season than any other team. And I intend on doing the same thing this season too. I’ve said about Stephen Curry that I feel so privileged to be able to watch him play basketball that I sometimes think about just dropping money through the vents on my TV. I feel similarly about Carlos Correa. Yes, I get to watch Bryce Harper and that is also wonderful. But there’s a simplicity to the way Correa plays. Bryce Harper is all effort. Don’t get me wrong. He is in possession of tools that any player would envy. But with Correa, he’s got tools, but he never looks like he’s about to kill himself while he’s using them. The game moves so slowly for him. He’s a joy to watch, just like Harper, Mike Trout, Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Curry, Gennady Golovkin, Lionel Messi, and any other athlete blessed with incredible talent and work ethic. Correa is part of a special group of athletes in sports right now.

That said, Correa will have his day. I just don’t think 2016 will be that day. Houston may very well make a big trade at the deadline and add a pitcher like they did with Scott Kazmir last season. Or they’ll add an offensive player like they did with Carlos Gomez. They have the prospects to do it. They could frankly add both. And if they do, this prediction could change. But right now, as March turns to April, I think the Giants have the organization best suited to winning the 2016 World Series.

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SOME AWARDS
AL MVP: Mike Trout (OF/LAA): I think the Angels will struggle this season, but it will have nothing to do with the best player in baseball. Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor will be in the conversation. But it’ll be a forced conversation.

NL MVP: Kris Bryant (3B/CHC): I see Anthony Rizzo as a popular pick and he is the de facto leader of the “Paper Champions.” But Bryant has the sort of raw power that will allow him to put up numbers that Rizzo just can’t. Also, it’s always worth mentioning Paul Goldschmidt and Giancarlo Stanton. They won’t be playing baseball for contenders, but they’ll be playing great baseball regardless.

AL Cy Young: Danny Salazar (Cleveland): I’m out on a big limb here. But I look at Salazar as a Dallas Keuchel-type. Keuchel was a very good pitcher coming into last season who put it together because he figured out how to be his best self. Salazar has the sort of “stuff” that Keuchel doesn’t. He did a great job of cutting down on his walks last season. Cutting down on the contact that he draws (easier said than done) will do the trick for Salazar.

NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles): He has a herculean task ahead of him. He will need to carry a staff that consists of Kenta Maeda, Zach Lee, Brandon McCarthy, Scott Kazmir, Carlos Frias, Alex Wood, Mike Bolsinger, and any other flotsam and jetsam that the Dodgers can acquire or call up from AAA Albuquerque. Kershaw can do it. I think he will carry the Dodgers to the brink of the playoffs on the shoulders of a sub 2.00 ERA and a sub 1.00 WHIP. It won’t be enough for the boys in blue, but it will be enough for Kershaw to take home another one of these.

AL Rookie of the Year: Nomar Mazara (OF/Tex): Once the Ian Desmond project fails spectacularly (let’s go with…late-April), Texas can call up the stud Mazara and he will rake for the next 10-15 years.

NL Rookie of the Year: Steven Matz (SP/NYM): The forgotten man in the Mets rotation. A really effective lefty who will start the season in the rotation and avoid some of the New York spotlight that the likes of Harvey, Cespedes, deGrom, Syndergaard, and Neil Walker will soak up. Okay, maybe not Neil Walker.

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WHERE I WILL BE WRONG
Here’s a “fun” section. The top 5 things I’ve written above that I wouldn’t bet the life of my fake pet turtle on:

5. Danny Salazar winning the AL Cy Young
4. Houston making the World Series
3. Seattle not making noise in the AL West
2. Dusty Baker and the Washington Nationals (happily) proving me wrong and winning the NL East
1. I have an uneasy feeling about Mike Trout. I don’t know what it is. Maybe it’s the Angels’ general mediocrity. But it shouldn’t feel like “going out on a limb” to predict Trout to win his second MVP. But it was for me.

As with the entire baseball season, time (a lot of it) will tell. For now, enjoy the start of the season!

MLB 25 And Under Dream Team

/ Jason / Leave a comment

This is a sequel to a post from 2012. You can read that post here.

In the above referenced post from 2012, I attempted to build a roster of the best 25 and under players. Unlike some lists you’ll find on the Internet, I didn’t make it a list of the 25 best players aged 25 and under. I used relief pitchers and bench bats and tried to build a great team.

The 2012 list came at a time when a number of star players just barely made the qualifying mark of “25 by the time I publish this.” Gone from that list, because of age, are stars like Yu Darvish, Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg, Andrew McCutchen, Buster Posey, and Craig Kimbrel. And a quick glance will show that even some guys who are past the age cut-off wouldn’t make this team today even if they did qualify (Justin Upton, Jason Kipnis).

This is an exercise that I would like to revisit every 2 seasons. One rule that I’m changing is that to qualify, players need to be 25 years old not today, but on the last day of the regular season. As with the previous iteration, players with no Major League service time are eligible. And so without further writing that most of you probably skipped over, here is my team:

 

STARTING LINEUP

Catcher: Derek Norris (Oakland Athletics): The talent pool at this position is not very deep. The 2012 catcher, Buster Posey, has graduated to age 27 and with prospects like Travis d’Arnaud and Mike Zunino struggling to be useful to the Mets and Mariners respectively, Norris and his high-OBP finds himself here. Norris may not be a long-term catcher as he’s not known for his incredible defensive prowess, but any player with his ability to get on-base has value in a pool this shallow.

First Baseman: Freddie Freeman (Atlanta Braves): I overlooked Freddie Freeman on my 2012 team. I gave him mention but didn’t think that he could be a patient enough hitter to have true long-term value over someone like Eric Hosmer, who is excellent defensively. Hosmer, however, has been an abysmal hitter. Meanwhile, since I published my 2012 team, Freeman has become not only the best young first baseman in baseball, but maybe the best overall first baseman, short of Miguel Cabrera. Defensively, Freeman has been inconsistent, ending 2013 on the positive side of Defensive Runs Saved. This season has been a very different story defensively. But we’re not really building this all-star team solely on defense. Freeman’s bat can play almost anywhere in the lineup because of his versatility as a hitter. That’s immensely more valuable when building a team like this.

Second Baseman: Rougned Odor (Texas Rangers): The player who you wish had an “h” in his first name is also the youngest player in the Majors. Odor has played in a very limited fashion as a 20 year old for Texas, but has shown a mature approach at the plate and solid defensive prowess. He finds himself here for the same reason that he finds himself playing for the Rangers: Jurickson Profar’s ailing shoulder. With Profar likely out for the rest of the season, Odor might be just a placeholder here, but in his brief stint in the Majors (<100 PA) he has been a much better hitter than Profar was. And so as much as it pains me to leave Profar off this team, I have to give the nod to Odor.

Third Baseman: Anthony Rendon (Washington Nationals): Injuries are always a concern for Rendon and so a long-term investment is a risk, but in his nearly full season (158 games at the time of writing this blurb) as a Major Leaguer, he sports a 107 OPS+ and plays a very good defensive third base. There are other names you could put here (see the bench section and the shortstop) but Rendon has produced and has shown improvement in his ability to drive the ball (his slugging pct. is 65 points higher in 2014 than it was in 2013).

Shortstop: Xander Bogaerts (Boston Red Sox): Just an astounding player. At 21, Bogaerts is getting on-base at a 36% clip, has an OPS approaching .800, and isn’t striking out at a rate you’d expect from someone so young. His approach is so developed for a 21 year old that you forget his age. Defensively, he’s probably a third baseman long-term and he’s playing there now for Boston with the recent signing of Stephen Drew, but in the interim, Bogaerts can play shortstop in the Majors without much difficulty. It’s shocking to me that he doesn’t get more publicity considering the team he plays for.

Left Field: Bryce Harper (Washington Nationals): A homer pick? Probably. But let’s take a look at what the 21 year old Harper has done in his career to date:

.273/.353/.476, 125 OPS+, 43 HR, 126 RBI, 8.9 WAR (279 career games)

Harper is the victim, so to speak, of Mike Trout’s success. LeBron James recently called himself the most scrutinized player in sports, which very well may be true. Harper though may be Major League Baseball’s most scrutinized player (if not him, it’s my right fielder), even at times by his own inept manager. It all seems pretty unfair when you look at the production. Statistically speaking, at his age, Harper still compares favorably to Ken Griffey Jr. and Micky Mantle. So maybe we should cool off on the criticism just a bit.

Center Field: Mike Trout (Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, California Angels): Simply put, Trout is the best all-around player in baseball today and the best all-around player in baseball probably since early 1990’s Barry Bonds, aka the greatest player in the history of baseball. Trout will turn 23 this August and has shown some signs of being human this season, as his overall slash line is down across the board from his 2013 total. But there’s no question that he owns this spot until the moment he’s no longer age-eligible, or scientists create a more perfect baseball player (unlikely).

Right Field: Yasiel Puig (Los Angeles Dodgers): Rounding out an outfield of the most dynamic players in baseball who all also happen to be under the age of 25 is Yasiel Puig, arguably the most exciting player in the game. Puig is only 23 (and won’t turn 24 until December) and has only played 164 games in his Major League career (so, call it a full season). He sports a career OBP of .403, which is relatively unheard of for such a young hitter from Latin America, where patience at the plate is not necessarily treated as a virtue. Puig’s slugging percentage of .549 would have been topped by only 4 other Major Leaguers last season. His arm in right field is Vladimir Guerrero-esque. And for every base running blunder that gets shown on MLB Tonight and criticized by the Billy Ripkens and Harold Reynolds of the world, Puig evens those out by stretching the sort of hits most players give up on at first base into doubles. Puig is on a path to becoming the best import hitter in baseball history. And if you’re whining about Roberto Clemente right now, it took him 6 seasons to put up numbers even close to what Puig has done in one full season. Viva Puig.

Designated HItter: Giancarlo Stanton (Miami Marlins): As I stated in my 2012 piece, I don’t believe that pitchers should hit. I love the pace of National League baseball, but I don’t love pitchers hurting themselves running the bases or being automatic outs because for every Mike Leake, there are 30 Johnny Cuetos and Bartolo Colons. So we use a DH and in this case, the perfect DH, in Stanton. His glove is not a true detriment, but his body has proven to be not entirely made of steel. Giving him the ability to focus on the one thing he does better than anyone (murdering baseballs) is a true asset to this squad. Stanton certainly isn’t on the same Hall of Fame path that Trout and Puig are (I know it’s a long time off before we elect players from this team to the Hall, relax), but no one in baseball has the raw power that Stanton does. And unlike a lot of raw power hitters, Stanton doesn’t strike out at an historic rate and knows how to draw walks.

BATTING ORDER

Xander Bogaerts
Yasiel Puig
Mike Trout
Giancarlo Stanton
Freddie Freeman
Bryce Harper
Derek Norris
Anthony Rendon
Rougned Odor

 

BENCH PLAYERS

Salvador Perez (C, Kansas City Royals): Perez is a big catcher who has managed to stay healthy while catching every day. His offensive numbers are not terribly impressive, but again, the talent pool at this position is not full of recent success stories.

Anthony Rizzo (1B, Chicago Cubs): Quietly, because he plays for a terrible baseball team, Rizzo is putting together a very nice season, seeing his walks increase and his strikeout rate drop at a very high rate. In short, he’s turning into a Freddie Freeman-type player and I’m okay with having two of those on my roster.

Andrelton Simmons (SS, Atlanta Braves): Simmons beat out slick fielding Indians prospect Francisco Lindor because his defense is unrivaled and he already has the Major League experience that the very young (but very developed) Lindor does not. Simmons will not be a late game pinch-hitting option.

Manny Machado (3B/SS, Baltimore Orioles): You would think, given the hype, that Machado has been a great hitter, but he hasn’t. It’s his glove that has been very valuable, leading the Majors in dWAR last season. The bat should come (hopefully with some maturity) and even if it doesn’t, the defensive flexibility that he provides is a big plus. With him, Rendon, and Bogaerts, you have three guys who can play at least two different positions in the infield each.

Billy Hamilton (OF, Cincinnati Reds): Hamilton was the toughest add here, beating out Pirates prospect Gregory Polanco, Marlins outfielder Christian Yelich, and Astros center fielder George Springer, because he brings something to the table that few players in recent memory have brought: blinding speed. In a late game situation, with someone like Derek Norris standing on first, Hamilton would be the ideal game changer.

 

PITCHING ROTATION

Chris Sale (LHP, Chicago White Sox): I tried for years to write off Chris Sale. His slight frame and terrifying delivery screamed “ARM INJURY!!!!” And yet, other than some time missed earlier this season with minor soreness, Sale has been healthy in his now 3rd season as a Major League starting pitcher. In his two previous seasons (I’m largely discounting the years the White Sox used him as a reliever), Sale was a sure-fire top of the rotation guy who finished in the top 6 in Cy Young voting each year, but was not necessarily someone you’d lump into the “Best Pitcher in the Game” category immediately. That has changed this year. Sale currently sports a sub 2.00 ERA, his highest K/9 as a starter, and a WHIP so microscopic (0.67) that he is entering not just “Best Pitcher in the Game” category, but “Best Pitching Season in the Modern Era” category. Of course, pitchers have half seasons like this (we call it Ubaldo Jimenzing), but everything Sale has done so far leans toward not just a stretch of good luck, but a pitcher who is beginning to peak. And that peak might be rising up to Mount Kershaw before long.

Masahiro Tanaka (RHP, New York Yankees): Tanaka just qualifies for this team, as he won’t turn 26 until November 1 and that’s good because he deserves to be on any list, created by any person, on the Internet. At the time of his signing, many made Hideki Irabu or Kei Igawa comparisons because Tanaka, like Irabu and Igawa, is Japanese. That and the fact that they have pitched for the New York Yankees is literally the only thing those three men have in common. Tanaka has been a revelation in the Majors and is the sole driving force behind the Yankees not chasing the Tampa Bay Rays and Houston Astros for the worst record in the American League. Tanaka is 10-1 (I don’t care about w-l record, but it looks pretty), sports a sub-1.00 WHIP and an ERA+ of 200. Those numbers for a rookie pitcher, even though Tanaka had great success pitching professionally in Japan, are incredible. Consider those numbers only in the context of a 25 year old prospect and they’re incredible. The race between Tanaka and Chris Sale for the American League Cy Young should be fantastic to watch, even if their respective teams aren’t. Tanaka has already been worth 3.5 wins to the Yankees, making his $22 million annual salary seem more than deserved so far in his young career.

Julio Teheran (RHP, Atlanta Braves): It’s not that Julio Teheran came out of nowhere. He has been a highly touted pitcher for many years. He was a fixture on Top 100 prospect lists before making his debut, along with two other Braves prospects (Arodys Vizcaino and Randall Delgado) both of whom have flamed out to this point. For a while, Teheran looked like a potential flame out as well. In spot starts for the Braves in 2011 and 2012, Teheran was wildly inconsistent and prone to pitching too much to contact, despite his great arsenal. Last season, he put together a campaign good enough to finish 5th in NL Rookie of the Year voting, but wasn’t the kind of pitcher who was going to make a list of the five best starting pitchers under 25. 2014 has shown that Teheran was really just not far enough along in his development in those first two seasons of spot starts. His ERA+ has skyrocketed over 150 and his WHIP has dipped below 1.00 and while his strikeouts have dropped, he is on pace to throw close to 200 innings, anchoring a very depleted pitching staff. And at age 23, we’re likely only seeing the start of what Teheran can be.

Madison Bumgarner (LHP, San Francisco Giants): Along with Sale, the only holdover from the 2012 staff, Bumgarner continues to pitch solidly for the Giants. His numbers compared to 2013 are seemingly all different (+ and -) but all within a similar range, showing something that I guess we can call consistency (example: His ERA is 1/10 of a run lower and his K/9 is about 1 strikeout higher, while his WHIP is .14 higher than last season). In short, he’s striking more guys out and pitching to contact more (almost 2 more hits/9) but the results are the same (in fact, his FIP is actually lower in 2014 than in 2013, which you wouldn’t expect given the jump in hits allowed). All of these statistics are a long way of saying, when you’ve got a 6’5″ lefty with a 4-pitch arsenal, who strikes out nearly 10 batters per 9 innings AND he’s under 25, he makes your rotation each and every time.

Sonny Gray (RHP, Oakland Athletics): Our fifth starter doesn’t fit the mold of your typical Major League starting pitcher. Gray stands only 5’11”. Generally, right handed pitchers below 6′ have a difficult time finding success because they’re pitching on a lower plane than their taller rivals. Pitching from that lower plane will allow most hitters to see the ball sooner at eye level, giving them that fraction of time that makes identifying a pitch that much easier. Gray has defied the 6′ or over notion in his 24 career starts. The former Vanderbilt standout offers a fastball in the mid-90s, an excellent sinker, and his best swing-and-miss pitch, a curveball. Gray has also been throwing a changeup more often as he develops as a full-time starter. In addition, Gray isn’t just a product of pitching at O.co Coliseum, as his road splits are dramatically better than his home (lower ERA and WHIP with a higher K/9). There were a number of options at the #5 spot, including current starters who you’ll find in the bullpen below and two of the game’s best pitchers who you’ll find in a special section, but Gray has shown little signs of being a one-year wonder and I think spends the next handful of years as the ace of one of the best real-life staffs in baseball.

BULLPEN

Michael Wacha (RHP, St. Louis Cardinals)

Trevor Rosenthal (RHP, St. Louis Cardinals)

Carlos Martinez (RHP, St. Louis Cardinals)

Addison Reed (RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks)

Yordano Ventura (RHP, Kansas City Royals)

Ian Krol (LHP, Detroit Tigers

-There’s no real need for individual analysis here. Until Wacha develops a useful third pitch, I like him better in a relief role, despite his great success to this point in his young career. Ventura, who is a starter, finds himself in the bullpen for similar reasons and additionally because he’s just a little too short to be a right-handed two pitch pitcher. The list of those guys who were successful starting pitchers is not a long or existent one. The rest of the bullpen is high-upside filler, really. The bullpen talent pool does not feature many dynamic youngsters outside of the few you see here (plus Addison Reed, by default).

OF NOTE

Jose Fernandez (RHP, Miami Marlins)

Matt Harvey (RHP, New York Mets)

-Not including these two pitchers felt wrong. But with both recovering from Tommy John surgery, it’s very hard to leave off a healthy pitcher like Sonny Gray or Julio Teheran. As much as we’ve all been programmed to think that pitchers can come back from Tommy John surgery “as good as ever” that’s not always the case, as no two bodies (and thus no two arms) are the same. Fernandez’s injury was especially unfortunate because the Marlins look like a contender for a playoff spot this season, with big improvements from Nathan Eovaldi and Henderson Alvarez in the rotation. For Harvey, he made New York Mets games must-watch spectacles, which they most certainly are not now in his absence.  If healthy, and where they were before their injuries, they’d both be the centerpieces of this rotation,bumping out Gray and Teheran. Until then, I’m going with healthy arms. But I will say, baseball without Harvey and Fernandez is just slightly less enjoyable.