NFL

2024 NFL Mock Draft

/ Jason / Leave a comment

Instead of a long intro, I’ll simply apologize to anyone who still reads these that I continue to post on this horrifyingly unattractive medium. I’ve toyed with the idea of upgrading how and where I post these but truthfully, there’s just so little traffic and I produce so little content. We could get into a therapy session about whether the lack of content is a result of the little traffic or vice versa, but you’re not my therapist. No one is! I live in Los Angeles and have Blue Cross Blue Shield.

The only differences here versus any other year is that the picks are more of a common-sense selection process than one based entirely on my own rankings. And I included trades! I used both PFF’s tool to create trades that had at least a 75% chance of approval. Here we go:

  1. Chicago Bears select Caleb Williams(QB/USC)

This is kind of a no-brainer and it would be weird and performative to slot any other player to Chicago here. Even if you don’t think Williams is the second coming of Patrick Mahomes, his floor is very high. I’d go so far as to say it’s a dialed back Andrew Luck but with more open field speed and pocket mobility. Williams makes a lot of off-platform throws and those make the highlight reels, but he’s a good and in fact extremely underrated pocket QB who might actually be excellent surrounded by better coaching and skill players than he had at USC. Anyone else here is overthinking things.

  1. Washington Commanders select Jayden Daniels (QB/LSU)

Okay, we’ve moved past the no-brainer portion of the draft. I would hate to have this pick. Truly. There are so many good offensive tackles and wideouts and cornerbacks and interior defensive linemen, but you have to draft a QB here if you’re the Artist Formerly Known as the Football Team. For me, it’s either Daniels or Drake Maye and I lean Daniels, ever so slightly, because of his upside. But man, does his extremely skinny frame and reckless open-field running worry the crap out of me. 

  1. New England Patriots select Marvin Harrison (WR/Ohio State)

This might seem like a contrarian curveball but think about it: New England can take a risky QB prospect in this spot or a universally-agreed upon generational WR talent. When in the course of draft history has the risky QB pick worked out better than the generational skill position pick? It’s different for Washignton at pick 2 because they have their choice of guys. New England doesn’t have that. They have Jacoby Brissett, a more than competent NFL starting QB and a really barren roster. I’d rather build pieces and look to fill QB next year with someone like Quinn Ewers or whoever pulls a Jayden Daniels or Joe Burrow and skyrockets up draft boards. *googles “LSU 2025 starting quarterback:*

  1. TRADE (Minnesota sends both 2024 firsts, picks 166 and 167 to Cardinals for pick 4) 

Minnesota selects Drake Maye (QB/UNC)

I have resisted the urge to do trades for as long as I’ve been doing this, which is I think 16 years. But this year’s draft changes things. There’s just too much need everywhere and too many teams that are whole rosters away from competing. Perhaps no team best exemplifies that latter bit than the Arizona Cardinals, who miss out on Marvin Harrison here, but choose to slide back to 11, acquire an additional first this year (they already had an additional first), and two later round picks. In moving up, Minnesota drafts the best available QB. Maye has a big arm and great size and good mobility. He is a “system” guy and the last two UNC guys (Mitch Trubisky and Sam Howell) didn’t exactly set the NFL ablaze. But Minnesota is a much better place for a rookie QB to learn on the job, with Justin Jefferson ready to catch anything thrown to him. Minnesota pays a hefty price in giving up both of their first rounders, but keep a chunk of their depth picks. 

  1. TRADE (Las Vegas sends a 2024 round 1, a 2025 round 1, 77, 112, 148 to Chargers for pick 5 and pick 69) 

Las Vegas selects JJ McCarthy (QB/Michigan)

We’ve got trade fever. Panicking that they’re going to enter 2024 with Aiden O’Connell as their QB1, Vegas makes an intra division trade with another team in need of draft assets. Now, look, I think JJ McCarthy at 1:5 is an utterly comical risk. I just don’t see where his upside is. Is there some kind of mysterious arm strength or accuracy that he’s been hiding from us? Is he about to grow a few inches? In the modern NFL Draft landscape, I don’t know that we’ve seen a QB with so little in the way of impressive statistics, at any point in his college career, move himself from “not even being talked about” to “top 5 pick.” So I’ll just say, I think the speed of the NFL will destroy JJ McCarthy and this pick will be an immense bust. But like I said, we’re doing groupthink this year.

  1. TRADE (Atlanta sends picks 8, 74, 109, 143, and 187 to Giants for 6) 

Atlanta selects Joe Alt (LT/Notre Dame)

Every ounce of chatter, every mock draft, every simulation, has Tennessee drafting Joe Alt at 1:7. So Atlanta pulls a fast one and gets the true franchise, Day 1 LT in this draft. And there are a lot of good tackles in this draft, some with extremely high upside. But Alt is the only one that has All-Pro potential. Atlanta just spent a lot of money on Kirk Cousins. They have talent at all the skill positions. It’s time for them to get serious and build a team in the trenches. They give up a bevy of picks to move up two spots but no one will question that when Alt is a multi-time Pro Bowler.

  1. Tennessee Titans select Rome Odunze (WR/Washington)

Tennessee’s consolation prize for missing out on Alt is a player who I think is the best WR in this class. Malik Nabers is faster. Marvin Harrison has a more dynamic grasp of route running. But Odunze is the most complete all-around receiver. He’s stronger than Nabers or Harrison. I like his hands better than either of the other two. And his contested-catch ability is second to none. I’m in love with him as a pro prospect. Logic and reason says that Harrison is the first receiver off the board, but for me, Odunze is a steal here for a team that is perpetually looking for a star pass catcher in his prime. 

  1. New York Giants (from Atlanta) select Malik Nabers (WR/LSU)

The Giants move back two spots, acquire 4 additional picks this year, and still get one of the big 3 WRs. Nabers is the speedster. A guy who can line up in the slot and win or a guy who can line up outside and burn. He is electrifying which is something the Giants have lacked at WR since another guy from Louisiana State University. 

  1. Chicago Bears select Byron Murphy II (DT/Texas)

The hope for most people in Chicago seems to be that one of the WRs falls to them. That doesn’t happen here, but WR is absurdly deep in this draft. Like, truly 10 impact guys deep. Chicago will have an opportunity to take whatever flavor WR they like in Round 3 or 4. Instead they get the best interior lineman in the draft, a guy who possesses insane athleticism who should benefit greatly early on from one-on-one matchups in the trenches, something he didn’t see often at Texas. 

  1. New York Jets select Taliese Fuaga (OT/Oregon State)

If the Jets don’t draft an offensive lineman in this incredibly fortuitous situation, they should also move to Las Vegas, but quit football and become a part-time bartender at a 3-star casino. Fuaga played exclusively RT at Oregon State and there was no one better in college football.

  1. Arizona Cardinals (from Minnesota) select Quinyon Mitchell (CB/Toledo)

Arizona’s roster is what NFL insiders call “gross” and “depleted” and “directionless” and “bad.” Their roster is so bad that we’ve all just assumed that Kyler Murray is a franchise QB and they shouldn’t even think about it, because my god if they spent a moment trying to replace QB, I can’t fathom how much further this roster would fall into disrepair. Anyway, that’s why I love the fake trade they made with Minnesota so much. Three first-round picks should net 3 starters on opening day. They start with Quinyon Mitchell, who set the postseason workout circuit ablaze. He’s a complete CB. A one-on-one guy who can tackle like a safety. In a division with DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk, this is a solid need for Arizona to address. 

  1. Denver Broncos select Dallas Turner (EDGE/Alabama)

Denver wanted to move up to draft Maye or McCarthy but they lacked the assets to do so, perhaps due in some part to the Russell Wilson debacle. So instead they stand here at 12, looking like Vincent Vega waiting on Mia Wallace…oh my god I’m so sorry, Bill Simmons just stole my ASUS laptop computer. Denver needs impact players all over the field, and here they get the top pass rusher in the draft. 

  1. Los Angeles Chargers (from Las Vegas) select JC Latham (RT/Alabama)

Moving back from 5 was key for the Chargers. Sure, they could have drafted Joe Alt and then had him draw straws with Rashawn Slater to determine who would anchor which tackle position. OR they could draft a true RT and acquire a third this season and a future first from a team that should be pretty bad in 2025. I like this scenario better. Jim Harbaugh has his principles and one of them is that offensive lines matter. Offensive line has long been a nightmare for LA’s lesser son. Problem…well, not solved, but problem…less problematic?

  1. New Orleans Saints select Troy Fautanu (LT/Washington)

If I paid Derek Carr a lot of money to play QB for my team, I sure as heck would make sure that I was protecting his blind side and doing so with someone a lot better than Trevor Penning.

  1. Indianapolis Colts select Brock Bowers (TE/Georgia)

This has to be a dream scenario for the Colts. They’re thin at pass-catcher and in Bowers they get a game-wrecking, who-knows-what-he-is pass catching dynamo. Bowers should present a lot of matchup problems for opposing defenses and should make Michael Pittman’s life (and by proxy Anthony Richardson’s) much easier. And Indianapolis didn’t have to move an inch to get their guy.

  1. Seattle Seahawks select Laiatu Latu (EDGE/UCLA)

This will be the year that the Seahawks address their anemic pass rush. No, really. I can feel it. 

  1. Jacksonville Jaguars select Cooper DeJean (CB/Iowa)

DeJean will either get drafted in the top 10 or will fall to the second round. Reviews are all over the place. Some people don’t think he can play CB. Some think he can but that he would be an excellent safety. Some see a special teams ace. And others think he’s the best corner in the draft. So, uh??? I think he lies between the second and fourth options there. He’s just so athletic and look, if we’re being honest, he’s a white secondary player and I think that throws a lot of people off. The Jaguars need playmakers in their secondary. If DeJean is a CB1 that’s awesome. If he’s a Pro Bowl safety? That’s cool too. If he’s even a good starter that’s also an upgrade. 

  1. Cincinnati Bengals select Olumuyiwa Fashanu (OT/Penn State)

This will be the year that the Bengals address their anemic pass blocking. No, really. I can feel it.

  1. Los Angeles Rams select Amarius Mims (OT/Georgia)

This is the Rams first first-round pick since they took Jared Goff in 2016. 8 years. It’s a credit to their scouting department that they haven’t had a long-term fall off. They could go in a number of directions here, but I’d like to see them take Mims, a high ceiling, low floor right tackle. Mims had an injury-derailed final season at Georgia, which contributed to his career total of 8 starts. Still, there’s a lot to like here and it’s a worthwhile gamble for a team that’s been doing well without any opportunities to gamble.

  1. Pittsburgh Steelers Terrion Arnold (CB/Alabama)

Well, they don’t need a QB…I have no idea what Pittsburgh is doing on the offensive side of the ball, so let’s give them the best available player at a position of need on defense and move on.

  1. TRADE (Tampa Bay sends 26, 89, and 125 to Miami for 21 and 198) 

Tampa Bay selects Jared Verse (EDGE/Florida State)

Sensing that they could lose out on a really good pass rusher, Tampa swaps firsts with Miami and sends a third and fourth their way to try to find an answer at EDGE. I think the jury has deliberated sufficiently on Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and while he’s not a full-on bust, he’s not a game changer. Tampa is aging rapidly on defense. Verse is on paper a big upgrade over JTS.

  1. Philadelphia Eagles select Adonai Mitchell (WR/Texas)

Two years ago, the Eagles could have let the internet vote for their first round draft pick and it wouldn’t have mattered. That’s how much depth they had. Now? The margin to miss on this pick is getting pretty thin. They need to get younger on the offensive line. They need secondary depth. They could afford to replace Jordan Davis who appears to be a “some downs” lineman. Or they could put the car in 5th and drive 140 across the Walt Whitman Bridge. That’s what Adonai Mitchell is here. If he hits, you have the best WR corp in the NFL, a trio of players who can do everything you need at that position group. And if that doesn’t work, they can always send Nick Sirianni over to the other side of the Whitman to pump gas at a Sunoco. 

  1. Arizona Cardinals (from Minnesota) select Jer’Zhan Newton (DT/Illinois)

Just Arizona accumulating more Day 1 starters. Newton is such a truly well-rounded interior lineman. He’s really good against the run and strong and quick enough to be an effective pass rusher. He’s a real steal this late in the first.

  1. Dallas Cowboys select Nate Wiggins (CB/Clemson)

You might look at the Dallas Cowboys and say “hey Daron Bland had all those interceptions returned for touchdown last year. The last thing they need is another cornerback. That guy is great!” and I would implore you to make a wager with me about Bland’s o/u INT number for 2024. This position group is not particularly good, counting stats aside and the absence of Dan Quinn could leave a big hole. Wiggins can play outside or in the slot and would be a pretty immediate upgrade over basically anyone on this roster outside of maybe Trevon Diggs. And even he’s pretty overrated.

  1. Green Bay Packers select Graham Barton (OL/Duke)

Barton is probably a guard at the NFL level and an elite one at that. I think teams are finally catching on that it’s actually worthwhile to take players who are elite at their positions and that it doesn’t matter if they’re an interior lineman or not. So that’s nice, because I’ve long been a believer that if you have a need and a player grades as a 7-10 year starter, you draft that player.

  1. Miami (from Tampa Bay) select Tyler Guyton (OT/Oklahoma)

Miami’s poor offensive line play has become a bit of a running gag. Guyton is in no way a sure-fire Day 1 starter. He is very inexperienced and had moments at the Senior Bowl that made me question whether he was a first round talent or even a football player at all. But they don’t teach 6’8” former D-1 H-back pretty much anywhere. Guyton was a RT for a left-handed QB in college and if you don’t see the parallel here…His game needs refinement but he’s uber-athletic and worth taking a chance on, especially when you’ve been as porous as the Dolphins have been. His upside is enormous and too good to pass up on here.

  1. Arizona Cardinals select Brian Thomas Jr. (WR/LSU)

You know, Marvin Harrison is really good. But you know what else is good? Drafting the best CB in the draft, a Day 1 interior line force, and getting the best of the second tier of WRs. Thomas is 6’3” and runs a 4.3. His game needs refinement, but for your third first round pick, you’d be hard-pressed to find a more worthwhile gamble than on this make-up succeeding in the NFL.

  1. Buffalo Bills select Xavier Legette (WR/South Carolina)

Here’s where I say “screw it, I’m taking my guy.” Buffalo traded Stefon Diggs which seems like probably addition by subtraction at this point in his career. Legette is such an exciting prospect. There’s some DK Metcalf in his build. In terms of contested-catchers, he’s close to Rome Odunze. He’s so physical, but also ran a sub 4.4 at the Combine. He’s much lower on most other boards, but we’ve reached the portion of the WR pool where you determine your WR need and you fill it accordingly. And Buffalo could use a guy like Legette more than a speedster like Xavier Worthy or a hands guy like Ladd McConkey.

  1. Detroit Lions select Darius Robinson (EDGE/Missouri)

In an effort to build the most intimidating, high-motor pass rush that the NFL has ever seen, we have Darius Robinson going to the Detroit Lions to join forces with Aidan Hutchison. Robinson isn’t in the mold of the modern NFL EDGE player. He’s more strength than speed certainly. But his strength absolutely plays. He moved around the line a bit in college but settled in nicely as a pass rusher last year, earning first team all-SEC honors.He’s in the right place for some excellent coaching. I love this fit.

  1. Baltimore Ravens select Kool-Aid McKinstry (CB/Alabama)

McKinstry is about as steady as they come at CB. He’s not going to draw a ton of DPIs. He’s not going to get badly burned by receivers. He’s kind of the perfect Baltimore Ravens guy. 

  1. San Francisco 49ers select Jackson Powers-Johnson (OL/Oregon)

JPJ is, shall we say, different. If you like your centers pulling, this guy makes Jason Kelce look like a sloth. Everything JPJ does is with the amplifier turned up to 12. Truly, if high motor guys are your thing, go watch some Oregon tape. He feels like a perfect fit on outside zone runs in the Shannahn offense. I could see him going as high as Miami at 21. He could also go as low as late in the 2nd round because really, what do I know? The one thing I do know if that I love watching Jackson Power-Johnson.

  1. TRADE (New Orleans sends 45 and a 2025 first to Kansas City for 32) 

New Orleans selects Michael Penix Jr. (QB/Washington)

Kansas City gets to probably still have their choice of WRs at 45 and they get an extra first next year. New Orleans gets to jump the gun on all the teams who missed out on QBs (Hi Denver!) Hi Giants!) trying to trade into the top of the 2nd round for Penix, Spencer Rattler, and Bo Nix. I could honestly go with any of the 3 QBs here and truthfully I think that Rattler is the best fit for New Orleans, especially if he’s going to sit for a year. You don’t need Michael Penix to sit for any amount of time behind Derek Carr. He’s got plenty of experience. But he is, to me, a hair better than Rattler or Nix, both of whom I really like as Round 2 guys and both of which I prefer to JJ McCarthy. 

And that’s it. No second round. No other guys I like (there are so many). Just a cool and breezy few thousand words. My annual proof-of-life. Thanks for checking it out.

2022 Quarterback Madness: The Madness Concludes

/ Jason / Leave a comment

Miss Round 2? Read that here. Miss Round 1? There’s a handy link at the top of the Round 2 page. Click often! It’s all about the page views in 2022.

THE MOSTLY ELITE 8

1. Josh Allen (BUF) vs 13. Trevor Lawrence (JAX)

I showed my hand last round when I said that Joe Burrow would beat either Lawrence or Zach Wilson. Obviously Trevor Lawrence isn’t winning this matchup today. Maybe in five years, when Allen crosses into his 30s, Lawrence will be better than him. Right now though, he’s all projection. Allen is real. And he’s really good. 

3. Lamar Jackson (BAL) vs. 2. Patrick Mahomes (KC)

This was the championship match in the 2019 iteration of this exercise, a matchup that Mahomes won. Since that time, Jackson’s statistics have regressed. His completion percentage has dropped each season. He’s throwing for fewer yards. Until this season, he was even averaging fewer yards per carry. If most of the other NFL franchises hadn’t locked up a player of Jackson’s incredible ability, I’d think they were completely insane. Baltimore has earned the right to be regarded as only mildly insane. There is no better QB out there who will be readily available this offseason, next offseason, etc. Especially given how Balitmore’s offense is set up. In a hypothetical world, Aaron Rodgers isn’t moving into this offensive scheme and experiencing a career renaissance. As for Mahomes, the clear winner here, Kansas City traded away his most explosive receiving option, replaced him with Marquez Valdez-Scantling, and he hasn’t missed a damn beat. He is so absurdly consistent. Every single year as a starter, his completion percentage has finished between 65.9 and 66.3%. He’s on pace to throw for over 5,000 yards this season. He turns absolutely nothing into something every single time he steps on the field. And yes, sometimes he does too much and gets caught. But more often than not, he’s doing something we’ve never seen before. He doesn’t have the strongest arm, the biggest frame, the fastest sprint speed, the height, etc etc. He’s just the best. Plain and simple.

1. Jalen Hurts (PHI) vs. 5. Dak Prescott (DAL)

Hurts is a good example of how a QB can develop when there’s talent around him. I know that’s a “well duh” comment, but it seems like a lot of player personnel people in the NFL think you can just will a QB to be good. Hurts was inconsistent last season. There were some Eagles fans who were hoping for Gardner Minshew to take over the team. A lot can change in a year! Philly swung a huge draft night trade for Tennessee’s superstar WR AJ Brown. It’s hard to say that Brown’s presence alone accounts for Hurts’ wild ascension to MVP candidate. But it doesn’t…..oh god….hurt……… Hurts has actually regressed as a runner, averaging 2 fewer yards per carry. Where he hasn’t regressed is in passing. He’s completing 68% of his passes with a 6:1 TD:INT ratio. He’s on pace to throw for over 4,000 yards and he’s not dinking and dunking. He’s averaging 8.5 yards per completion. He has been very, very good. But is he better than Dak Prescott? I don’t think Jalen has done enough to surpass Dak. This was, by far, the closest quarterfinal matchup (and the de facto NFC championship matchup). Hurts’ half season of exceptional play isn’t enough to overtake what Dak has done in his 7 seasons, which statistically speaking is basically Hurts’ 2022 season. 

14. Justin Fields (CHI) vs. 2. Kirk Cousins (MIN)

Kirk Cousins is the only QB over 30 to reach the quarterfinals. Truthfully, this says a lot more about his path here and about the youth movement at the QB position than it does Cousins. You could, theoretically, argue that Justin Fields and Trey Lance are in a similar position and given that Cousins has beaten Lance already, he should advance to the NFC championship. My counterargument goes like this: No. Fields has been in a really unforgiving situation in Chicago, for any QB, nevermind a 23 year old. I shudder to think what Kirk Cousins, a QB with 1/10th the running ability of Fields, would produce with the cast of characters Fields performs with every week. The most troubling thing for me when evaluating Fields is that his accuracy has not improved from his first season. In fact, he’s completing a marginally lower percentage of his 2022 passes while only passing for a marginally higher yard per completion number. It’s not like the Bears are running the Mike Leach Texas Tech offense. Quite frankly, I wish they were, because I think it would be easier to tell what Fields can be as a QB. If he’s a sub-60% accuracy QB with mobility, is that a franchise QB? By contrast, Lamar Jackson completed 66% of his passes in his second season, when he won the MVP. And I don’t think Fields is quite the runner that Lamar is. Working in Fields’ favor over Trey Lance is that he’s a season and a half into his career. We’ve seen flashes of what he can be. And he can be very good. Working in Fields’ favor over Cousins is that he’s 11 years his junior and so much more dynamic. 

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP

1. Josh Allen (BUF) vs. 2. Patrick Mahomes (KC)

For as long as both guys are in the AFC, they’re going to find each other. In terms of profile alone, Allen is Super-Sized Mahomes. Bigger, faster, stronger arm, stronger in general. I mean, he’s 6’5”, 240 LBS and he’s a QB. The reason why I lean Mahomes over Allen in this, the marquee Final Four game, is that he’s more accurate with the football and when he reaches into his bag to make a highlight play, he more often than not hits. Meanwhile, Allen has the tendency to turn makable first downs into interceptions. I’m certainly picking nits here. These two are far and away the two best QBs in the NFL and number 3, whoever that is, isn’t close.

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP

5. Dak Prescott (DAL) vs. 13. Justin Fields (CHI)

This is the early Final Four game. 6:09 p.m. EST tip-off. This is another case of Prescott winning because he’s been consistently good and that matters more, at this point, than potential. 

CHAMPIONSHIP

Patrick Mahomes (KC) vs. Dak Prescott (DAL)

It’s Patrick Mahomes. It was always going to be Patrick Mahomes. Dak Prescott is a good, almost underrated quarterback. When he’s healthy, he’s an absolute Top 10, probably Top 7 NFL QB. And we’ve seen runs from Dak where he hits another gear. But he’s not Mahomes. No one is. Time will tell if Joe Burrow finds another gear or Justin Fields grows into his immense potential or Justin Herbert gets an offensive coordinator who isn’t scared of him. Even when that happens, I’m not sure that any of those guys are better than Mahomes. He’s the Stephen Curry of the NFL. He’s doing things that others will mimic but no one will replicate. He’s a once-in-a-lifetime talent.

Quarterback Madness: Round 2

/ Jason / 1 Comment

Did you miss Round 1? Why do you have more important things in your life? Why do you hurt me so much?

Sorry! It’s hard to find a good therapist in Los Angeles. On to the matchups:

AFC

1. Josh Allen (BUF) vs. 9. Joe Burrow (CIN)

Gut reaction is to immediately take Allen. So you go searching for edges that Burrow might have. Youth? Well, despite being drafted two years after Allen, Burrow was actually born in the same year as him. Burrow does have a Super Bowl appearance, while Allen has yet to reach the conference championship. But Josh Allen wasn’t part of the Buffalo defense that allowed Kansas City to drive into field goal range in 13 seconds in the greatest game ever played. Tools? Well, every tool that Burrow has, Allen has even more of. Burrow can scramble a bit. Allen, meanwhile, can truck free safeties across the Canadian border in the open field. Arm strength is a check for Allen too. Accuracy is the one area where Burrow has the decided advantage. Allen, I think, is at best a 65% accuracy guy in the career aggregate, whereas Burrow is a 70%er.  I think this is not quite as clearly and obviously Allen as it might seem. That said, now that he has mostly harnessed his traits and abilities, I give him the slight edge in a seriously unfair second round matchup for Burrow.

5. Zach Wilson (NYJ) vs. 13. Trevor Lawrence (JAX)

To be clear, Joe Burrow would unquestionably win against either QB here. I’ve already stated that Trevor Lawrence is head and shoulders beyond the other QBs in his draft class. That includes the guy selected right after him, Zach Wilson. Wilson and Lawrence have a lot of the same problems (silly mistakes), but Lawrence looks like he’s got things more figured out at this point in the process and as I’ve said before (in my 2021 mock draft) I don’t think Wilson ever figures it out.

6. Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) vs. 3. Lamar Jackson (BAL)

I did not believe my eyes that Tua was the highest rated QB in ESPN’s Total QBR metric this season. There appears to be two camps with Tua: 1.) Miami Dolphins fans who interpret any criticism of him as a slight to them personally and 2.) Rational people. I’m in the second camp. The Dolphins offense is entertaining as hell. Believe it or not, if you pair two of the NFL’s most dynamic wide receivers with one of the most creative offensive minds calling plays, the results will be fun! Wow! Now, in Tagovailoa’s defense, Miami looked a different team with Skylar Thompson and Teddy Bridgewater helming them. Mike McDaniel uses Tua’s strengths (short and intermediate accuracy) so well. Tua’s biggest weakness is, well, his weak arm. No matter what the first camp says, an underthrow is an underthrow. And Tua is prone to the underthrow. Tyreek Hill is able to hide some of the ugliness with his unrivaled ability to twist back for bad passes. In a Sunday night game against Pittsburgh, the Steelers dropped four clear and clean interceptions. I think Tua’s status as the league leader in QBR has a lot to do with the system and the skill players. Meanwhile, in Charm City, Lamar Jackson is quietly leading an offense of Mark Andrews and assorted randos towards the playoffs. And I can’t help but imagine how incredible Jackson would be in the McDaniel system that Tua is in. Lamar is absolutely frustrating at times. His accuracy is not elite and frankly, it’s not even close to elite. There will come a time where he will slow down and when he loses that elite speed, I wonder what he becomes. However, he’s 25 years old. That time isn’t nigh. Much like the Allen vs. Burrow matchup, talent and attributes win out here.

7. Justin Herbert (LAC) vs. 2. Patrick Mahomes (KC)

I think there’s a case to be made that there are five AFC QBs who are better than the best NFC QB. Justin Herbert is one of those five. His detractors, amplifying in size and volume as they are, will point to his statistical regression in 2022. I would simply remind them that he’s playing in the most conservative passing offense in football and that he’s been playing through a rib injury. He’s still on pace to throw for a hair under 4,500 yards and 30 TDs. If that’s regression…cool? He’s still 24. He’s still 6’6”. And he’s far from playing in the ideal offensive scheme for his abilities. All of this to say, I’m still a Herbert stan, I think he’s the third or fourth best QB in the AFC and he gets absolutely boat-raced by Patrick Mahomes in this matchup.

NFC

1. Jalen Hurts (PHI) vs. 8. Desmond Ridder (ATL)

Here, we are comparing a person who has never taken an NFL snap against the QB of the League’s only undefeated team. This is not a particularly interesting matchup. Until we have any idea what Desmond Ridder is, he can’t beat out a dynamic weapon like Hurts.

5.  Dak Prescott (DAL) vs. 13. Kyler Murray (ARI)

This is the only truly compelling 2nd round matchup in the NFC. I touched upon Kyler Murray’s bad coaching in Round 1. But let’s look at Murray. This is his fourth NFL season, all of them with the same offense. He’s on target to finally, albeit barely, eclipse the 4,000 yard passing mark. In Dak Prescott’s fourth NFL season, he hit 4,900 passing yards. “But Kyler is such an electric runner,” you say to your phone. Sure. Other than Lamar Jackson, no other QB has as much pure speed as Kyler. That said, he’s a bit reckless with the ball. In 33 fewer NFL games, Murray has fumbled 8 more times than Prescott. And Dak is no slouch when he needs to run, averaging about a yard per carry less than Kyler. The only question mark with Dak, for me, is his health. Since 2020, he’s played in just 24 of Dallas’ 41 games.It’s a risky gamble, but I’m willing to take it on a guy who has been a more consistently good performer in the NFL. Give me Dak.

11. Jameis Winston (NO) vs. 14. Justin Fields (CHI)

There’s enough about Justin Fields that is deeply intriguing that it’s hard to give up on him just 1 ½ seasons into his career. He has at times looked maddingly poor, but how much of that is to blame on bad coaching, shoddy offensive line play, and the worst set of skill position players in the NFL? He’s shown enough flashes of brilliance that I’ll take that over a Jameis Winston 30/30 season. 

7.  Trey Lance (SF) vs. 2. Kirk Cousins (MIN)

The answer is Kirk Cousins. You know the answer is Kirk Cousins. You don’t want the answer to be Kirk Cousins because he’s not terribly athletic, he’s dorky, he manages to throw a dozen avoidable interceptions every season, and he is paid very handsomely. You are inclined to loathe Kirk Cousins, the patriarch of all mediocre white men. Everyone rags on Kirk. I rag on Kirk. Trey Lance would be fortunate to provide the production that Kirk Cousins has over his career. The 49ers took a massive swing on Lance. I’ll stand in the box and take my walk with Kirk to the 3rd round. 

Tomorrow, we’ll wrap up the whole thing. Patrick Mahomes will win, but swing by anyway please.

2022 Quarterback Madness: Round 1

/ Jason / 2 Comments

Welcome to the 6th Edition of Quarterback Madness, a March Madness-style bracket that I invented, like Thomas Edison, back in 2010. The rules are simple and entirely arbitrary. Essentially, it boils down to which QB, given each matchup, I’d prefer to start my NFL expansion franchise with. Previous winners include Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes. And that’s it. They’re the only previous winners.

I’ll be breaking this into a series of posts rather than one long one. Like and subscribe and comment below etc etc.

All seedings are based on team records, by conference, entering Week 10 of the 2022 season.

AFC

1. Josh Allen (BUF) vs. 16. Davis Mills (HOU)

Sure, I could spend a lot of time here comparing Allen’s stats to Mills’ stats. But that seems like an undervaluing of your time. Do I think that Davis Mills can be an effective NFL QB? Yeah, probably. But that’s about it for his ceiling. As for Allen, the last time I did this exercise in 2019, I lambasted him up and down about his lack of passing accuracy. And to be fair, at that time, he did look like a really fancy tool shed filled with tools that the owner wasn’t capable of using. But now, in 2022, Allen is consistently sawing through defenses. I wish Buffalo would let him use his size more and give him 5-7 designed runs per game, but that’s more a quibble with Ken Dorsey’s philosophy and their desire to keep Allen healthy. Josh has figured out how to pass at an elite level. He still makes an inaccurate, boneheaded throw once a game. But more often than not, he’s an unstoppable wrecking machine. 

8. Mac Jones (NE) vs. 9. Joe Burrow (CIN)

The troll in me desperately wanted to make Bailey Zappe New England’s representative here. Let’s just say I’ve matured a bit. Mac Jones has regressed immensely in 2022 from his rookie season. He’s second-to-last in QBR among qualified players (only Baker Mayfield is worse). Most troubling is Jones’ decision-making. He’s thrown nearly twice as many interceptions as touchdowns and while he’s still one of the most accurate passers in the league (66%), you can’t make the mistakes he’s making and hope that short-field accuracy will equate to winning football, especially with the total lack of weapons he has on offense. Burrow is the clear choice here. He’s also stalled a bit in 2022. And he’s still taking way too many sacks. And sure, he has perhaps the best 3 WR set in football to work with. All of those caveats aside, he’s simply a better QB than Jones right now and there’s no reason to believe that will change in the future. 

5. Zach Wilson (NYJ) vs. 12. Russell Wilson (DEN)

It’s matchups like this that make me love this exercise. Look, there’s no winner here. Russell Wilson looks absolutely washed and every day shows himself to be more and more of a dislikable weirdo. Zach Wilson has youth on his side. Youth can be quite the folly though, because it can make you believe you’re Josh Allen when you’re actually a lot closer to Joshua Dobbs. Wilson’s arm strength is not the question. It’s his absolute penchant for making the dumbest possible throws that is. He’s completing just 58% of his throws and he’s throwing more interceptions than touchdowns. Every week, Z. Wilson will escape the pocket to his strong side, stop along the sideline, and fire a flaming meatball into the middle of the field. It would be fun to watch if he hadn’t been the second overall pick and he wasn’t wasting some legitimately talented skill position players. And yet, after all of that, I’m taking him over Russell, who is also completing under 60% of his passes and is also wasting some legitimately talented skill position players, AND is 11 years Zach’s senior. He’s almost old enough to be in Zach’s dating range, in fact. 

4. Ryan Tannehill (TEN) vs. 13. Trevor Lawrence (JAX)

One guy is probably towards the end of his career (at least as a starter) and the other is just getting started. Has Lawrence underwhelmed thus far? A little bit. He’s been perfectly league average in this, his second season. He’s certainly shown progress in 2022, due in no small part, I’m sure, to having a healthy Travis Etienne Jr. and an exiled Urban Meyer. He’s still making young QB mistakes with regularity, but his arm strength and his extremely fast release are still elite. Do I think he gets to the Andrew Luck level that I predicted? Eh. But I think of all the QBs from the 2021 Draft, Lawrence is still the best and I don’t think it’s close. Tannehill has done his job during his career, but at this point, he’s really just a live body to hand the ball off to Derrick Henry. That said, you will notice that he’s here and not Malik Willis, who Tennessee drafted in the 3rd round in the 2022 Draft and has made two NFL starts. I said in my 2022 Draft preview that I didn’t think Willis would be ready to start at all in his first season and that has absolutely proven to be true. He has looked totally overmatched in the NFL, similarly to how he did in college when he faced Power 5 defenses. It’s two games in a rookie season and the last time I did this exercise, I was highly critical of Josh Allen. But Willis’ 6.5 QBR and 40% completion percentage in his two starts says enough at this point. Tannehill gets the nod over Willis here, but it’s Lawrence who trounces either Tennessee quarterback.

6. Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) vs. 11. Deshaun Watson (CLE)

I’m inclined to just say “to hell with Deshaun Watson and the Cleveland Browns” and just move on entirely. But lets look at this whole thing from a football perspective before we do that, while acknowledging the two dozen sexual assault claims against Cleveland’s self-selected face of the franchise. Watson hasn’t played an NFL game since January 3, 2021. It will be nearly two calendar years between starts when he suits up against Houston on December 4th. When last we saw him on a football field, he was an elite (perhaps Top 5) talent. He was smart with the football, but also fully willing to throw deep, even without DeAndre Hopkins. And he was startlingly accurate. On a football-only level, what Cleveland gave up to get him and what they committed to him financially was good business. However, given the totality of the situation, we know it’s not. Watson sat out the 2021 season of his own accord because, I don’t know, he’s a baby? He then showed no understanding at all of the gravity of which he was accused. Unless you’re one of those weirdos who defends your sports team like it’s your life’s purpose or you’re a men’s rights activist, it’s pretty easy to see that Watson is a really bad person. So we’ll talk about Tua in the next round when he faces Lamar Jackson.

3. Lamar Jackson (BAL) vs. 14. Derek Carr (LVR)

“Just wait until Derek Carr has weapons to throw to,” they all said (me included). Well, have we seen enough? Look, he wasn’t going to beat Lamar Jackson in a debate of “who is the better QB” even if he didn’t look like a shell of himself. But yikes, he looks awful. Meanwhile, Lamar is Lamar. In 2019, he was a semi-finalist in this exercise. While some of that shine has worn off, he’s still a franchise-building piece (in the final year of his contract, inexplicably).

7. Justin Herbert (LAC) vs. 10. Not Applicable (IND)

This is the first time I’ve ever just listed N/A as a team’s quarterback (and I’ll do it again with Carolina later). I haven’t the slightest idea what Indianapolis is doing right now, especially at the QB position. They’ve seemingly committed to a deeply flawed strategy of bringing in a new veteran QB every offseason. This year’s version, Matt Ryan, has been the worst of the bunch, so much so that he was benched in favor of Sam Ehlinger, a player with no future in the NFL. There’s truly nothing there with Ehlinger. He’s not big. He’s not fast. His arm strength is okay. He isn’t even accurate in the short game. He’s just not the kind of QB you hitch your wagon to six games into a season when your expensive offseason acquisition fails. As for Herbert, he’s got quite the matchup waiting for him in the next round.

2. Patrick Mahomes (KC) vs. 15. Kenny Pickett (PIT)

To an extent, I kind of like what I’ve seen from Kenny Pickett. There’s a lot to work on certainly. But I can see the outline of a decent QB. Think a smaller Ryan Tannehill. And that’s about all we need to say about this matchup. 

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NFC

1. Jalen Hurts (PHI) vs. 16. Not applicable (CAR)

Not applicable making their second appearance. Truly a prolific year for teams with confounding QB situations. Carolina’s QB room is an absolute mess. In a perfect world, they finish the season with the NFL’s worst record, draft Bryce Young or CJ Stroud first overall (right now I prefer Stroud but that’s not etched in stone), and move on from the Sam Darnold/Baker Mayfield/PJ Walker carousel of misery that they have now. In an even more perfect world, the Ravens somehow don’t offer Lamar Jackson a legitimate long-term contract and the Panthers give him the most guaranteed money in NFL history. They then use that high draft pick as leverage, trade down, acquire a slew of picks, take Notre Dame TE Michael Mayer, and by 2024, they’re an NFC contender. Until then, Jalen Hurts wins this matchup.

8. Desmond Ridder (ATL) vs. 9. Carson Wentz (WAS)

This was as close to a third “Not Applicable” as we got and frankly, you can’t even tell for certain which team I’m talking about! The Washington Football Team can move on from Wentz after this season with zero dead cap space. That is good! The bad part is that they gave up two 3rd rounders and a 2nd rounder for X number of games of horrific QB play at $28 million. For Atlanta, I’m still on the Ridder train. Yes, it’s troubling that we’re nearing the halfway point in the season and Atlanta is still running the same offense as the Naval Academy with Marcus Mariota, even though they could conceivably make the playoffs with one of the worst defenses in football. I firmly believe that Desmond Ridder can be an NFL QB and a good one at that. When it comes to what Wentz is, I think we can all agree that it is NOT a good QB.

5. Dak Prescott (DAL) vs. 12. Aaron Rodgers (GB)

What a super competitive, intriguing matchup this is in the year 2019. In the year 2022, it’s Dak. Rodgers has more than worn out his welcome, to the point that I think he’s actively harming the growth and development of Green Bay’s young skill position players. The Packers would be wise to move on from Rodgers and see what they have in Jordan Love before the Draft and free agency. There’s even a good chance they can convince a very bad GM to trade for Rodgers. When Dak is healthy, he’s a top 10 QB. I don’t think Aaron Rodgers gets into that top 10 ever again. 

4. Tom Brady (TB) vs. 13. Kyler Murray (ARI)

“Surely,” you think, “there’s no way this idiot is going to pick 45 year old Tom Brady over Kyler Murray.” And I’ll calm your nerves right away. No, I’m not going to. But I could be convinced to do so. At some point, one has to wonder how much of Kyler Murray’s mediocrity is on the shoulders of Kliff Kingsbury and his continued unjustifiable employment as Arizona’s head coach. I would love to see Kyler Murray in the Mike McDaniel system. Heck, I’d like to see Kyler Murray in a system. Arizona’s offense seems to be built off of bizarre gadget plays with Rondale Moore four yards behind the line of scrimmage and tossing the ball up to DeAndre Hopkins 10 times a game and hoping for the best. Murray himself is not without his flaws. Our Call of Duty King will always be very short and as he ages and has to rely on the pocket more, I fear he’s going to have a lot of trouble completing passes. All of that said, Tom Brady is indeed 45 years old, in the middle of a divorce, and has the body language of both a 45 year old and a divorcee. This is the first year that Brady has looked truly mortal and, in fact, beatable. And I don’t foresee him finding some kind of new, mystery gear. I think this is finally the end of his long, incredible road. And I think that’s good for everybody. 

6. Daniel Jones (NYG) vs. 11. Jameis Winston (NO)

Have you ever been out on a run or a bike ride without a prior plan and you get to a point where you’re totally unsure of where to go next? That was basically me when I got to this matchup. I’m just standing there at an intersection weighing whether I continue on or just go home. There is an extremely high chance that neither of these guys are starting QBs next year. Jones is having a career year with first year head coach Brian Daboll. For Jones, that means he’s averaging well under 200 passing ypg and a 58.2 QBR. Daniel Jones is going to be a very good backup QB in his career. I am, for whatever reason, going to go with Winston here. He’s the QB equivalent of a classic car with no seatbelts. 425 HP and you’re probably going to sever your spine because of him. But I still have a glimmer of hope that he can check up a little (maybe 280 HP) and install a nice harness system. (Jameis Winston is not a car.)

3. Geno Smith (SEA) vs. 14. Justin Fields (CHI)

I have this “fun” bit early in this NFL season. It goes like this: Geno Smith should be the NFL MVP. And I’m only partially serious. A lot of the pundits I follow really like to overlook how bad Justin Fields can look at times because he’s also extremely dynamic and can do things that only about five QBs can do. Geno Smith, on the other hand, is Geno Smith. Fields has shown enough flashes that I’d bet on him in this matchup over Geno who is a good pocket passer and nothing more. But I am absolutely not convinced (at least not yet) that Fields can be consistent enough to make the Bears competitive.

7. Trey Lance (SF) vs. 10. Matthew Stafford (LAR)

What, really, is Trey Lance? Here’s what I know: He is fast. He is big. He was the third overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. I know that he *was* extremely accurate. I also know that in two seasons in the NFL, he will have thrown 102 passes. San Francisco gave up a boatload to acquire Lance and it’s clear why. You can’t teach his size. But the jury is absolutely still deliberating on him. On the other side of this matchup is Matthew Stafford who is 34 years old. We’d be looking at Stafford a lot differently if not for a dropped INT in last year’s NFC Championship game. As the starting QB for a team coached by history’s greatest offensive mind (sarcasm font), Stafford sits behind such luminaries as Jared Goff and Andy Dalton in Total QBR. He looks bad. His counting stats are aided immensely in having Human YAC Machine Cooper Kupp at his disposal. In this matchup I’ll take the uncertainty of Trey Lance over what I’m pretty sure we know Matthew Stafford to be, which is a flawed and aging QB with a lot of miles on the tires. 

2. Kirk Cousins (MIN) vs. 15. Jared Goff (DET)

It is at this point that I realize that the NFC is some kind of QB graveyard because I just thought “Is Kirk Cousins going to win the NFC?” (We’ll see). I am history’s greatest Jared Goff detractor. He’s not good enough to win you games, but he’s certainly bad enough to lose you some. I just have no use for him and it’s quite frankly disappointing that Detroit didn’t draft Desmond Ridder before Atlanta did because they have the skill position players to be competitive and, dare I say, fun. Kirk Cousins is both good enough to win you games and bad enough to lose you some. But he’s more good than bad despite his reputation. 

Keep your eyes peeled for the next installment of QUARTERBACK MADNESS…right here!

2022 NFL Mock Draft

/ Jason / Leave a comment
i have a passion for web design

(Jason note: I’m going to do a somewhat lengthy intro about how I’ve viewed the build-up to the Draft and my analysis of a few individual prospects, followed by the selections I would make if I was each of the 32 GMs). 

What an extremely weird draft process this has been. It reminds me of the 2013 NBA Draft when there was no consensus best player at the time (Hi Giannis!) and the team with the first pick talked themselves into a high-upside project who wound up burning out faster than a TikTok trend. He’s now playing professionally in Taiwan. For Travon Walker, I hope he fares better, even if I think his rapid ascension to most-likely first overall pick is completely asinine and evidence that this process is too long. 

We (the people who do this professionally and people like me who wish we did) get so enamored with the measurables. Make no mistake, Walker’s are off the charts. His Combine performance was the stuff of legend. His in-game performance, however, wasn’t. He showed flashes of immense pass-rushing skill, but didn’t produce the counting statistics you’d like to see from a college pass rusher.  

To give you an idea of Walker’s rise, I did two mock drafts prior to this published one. One was February 15. The other was March 7. In the first one, I didn’t slot Walker in the first round. The second mock which I did in the immediate aftermath of the Combine, I slotted him in at 10 and thought at the time that I was being far too generous. Then his name started popping up more and more. And now, today (April 25) as I write this intro, he’s the odds-on favorite to go first overall, despite playing no games from February 15-today. 

At the start of this process, I wasn’t enamored with Aidan Hutchinson, having watched him do absolutely nothing against an SEC offensive line in the CFP. Hutchinson’s measurables are great, save for his very short arms, which give him a severe disadvantage at the snap, as it limits his ability to get first contact. As I’ve listened to and read actual experts over the past two months, I’ve come to appreciate a little more of what Hutchinson is and what he could be.

All along, I’ve thought that Jacksonville was in an impossible situation. From what I can tell, the team has done a terrible job of ginning up interest in a trade for the first overall pick, which would be the ideal scenario for them. And perhaps the Travon Walker stuff is actually Jacksonville trying to create smoke to entice a team in the 3-10 range to move up to draft him.  However, everybody else in the Top 10 appears to be pretty comfortable with where they are. Detroit especially stands to get the player they wanted all along (we assume) in Hutchinson without having to give up anything for him. 

On the offensive line, there is no Orlando Pace in this draft, but Jacksonville would still be very smart to draft an offensive tackle with the first overall pick, rather than swing for the fences with Travon Walker. Their offensive line lacks depth to begin with. Add to that that their best lineman is Cam Robinson on the one-year franchise tag (Robinson has since signed a 3 year extension which I’ll discuss below with Jacksonville’s pick)  and it just makes sense to me that you’d want to build that depth to protect the investment in Trevor Lawrence. Really, what’s the point of drafting a potential franchise-altering QB if you’re only going to surround him with middle-round talent? The player I have going first overall is the most versatile lineman in this draft and someone who I’ve consistently mocked to Jacksonville. Ultimately, I think given what we know about Trent Baalke (Jacksonville’s GM), they’ll swing for the fences on Thursday and select Walker. 

Part of what makes this draft so weird is that the quarterback class is the worst in recent memory and maybe ever. The general consensus is that Malik Willis is the best prospect, given his tools. I just can’t see how a GM can take him early in the first round unless they have an ironclad and notarized agreement with ownership that they’ll get to stick around long enough to have the gamble maybe pay off. Willis will absolutely not be ready to start in Week 1. I’m not entirely sure that he’ll be able to start in Week 18 either. He has a long way to go as a quarterback who can complete passes at all three levels before he can succeed in the NFL. His decision making at Liberty (including attending Liberty) severely lapsed at times even against middling competition. There’s just an immense amount of washout potential in him. Meanwhile, the general consensus is that Pittsburgh’s Kenny Pickett is the safer pick and I might have agreed with that two months ago, but everything I’ve read about him indicates a guy who will absolutely wilt under defensive pressure. And let’s not forget that his hands are very tiny. Pickett has, in my mind, an Andy Dalton ceiling in the NFL. I don’t see how that’s worth a first round pick.

For me, the safest QB in the draft is Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder, a four year starter who improved every year, has sneaky mobility, and is an accurate passer, albeit without the arm strength of Willis. Ridder isn’t the kind of high-upside QB that you’d take in the top 10, but I think in the late teens, an already good team is going to draft a QB who will be a stable signal caller for 10+ years. Think Derek Carr or Tony Romo in terms of numbers.  Meanwhile, I think the career ceiling for Willis could be 2021 Josh Allen and the floor could be 2018 Josh Allen. Is it worth committing yourself to Willis for 3-4 years or smarter to fill a positional need and wait for better QB classes in 2023 and 2024?

Okay, on to the picks. Where relevant, I’ll include who I think the team will actually select, because obviously I differ a bit from the likely reality.

  1. Jacksonville Jaguars select Evan Neal (OT/Alabama)

As noted, I think this will be Travon Walker. I personally love Neal. He has every box checked for an offensive lineman. Size. Speed. Strength. Positional flexibility. This has been my selection for the Jags since they locked up the first overall pick. This morning’s news that they’ve signed Cam Robinson to a 3 year/$54 million extension throws a bit of a wrench into the selection. I thought about moving Hutchinson up here, which would lead to a ripple effect that would see Detroit probably take Travon Walker, Houston still take Ekwonu who is a better scheme fit and Neal fall to the Giants at 5. The reason why I’m sticking with Neal is because in my mind’s eye, he’s the best, most day-one ready prospect in this Draft. First overall is rich for a player who will likely play Guard, but it’s important to note that Robinson getting the franchise tag is not indicative of his being a franchise player. PFF (Pro Football Focus) ranked him in the bottom half of all tackles in the NFL last season. He’s also played 16 games in a season just once. I still don’t think pass rush is more of a need for Jacksonville than pass protection. They’ll also have the first pick in every other round, allowing them to survey the landscape and make the most informed decision. I go with the surest thing here, regardless of Robinson’s extension.

  1. Detroit Lions select Aidan Hutchinson (EDGE/Michigan)

This is the ideal scenario for the Lions. They need a pass rusher and will draft one here probably regardless of what Jacksonville does. All indications are that the Michigan guy is their guy. If he goes first overall, I’d imagine Detroit takes Walker over Kayvon Thibodeaux..

  1. Houston Texans select Ikem Ekwonu (OT/NC State)

Is this too high to draft a guy whose biggest strength is his run blocking? Maybe. Are the Houston Texans in dire need of players who can do anything well? Yes. Having a run blocking dynamo like Ekwonu I think takes some pressure off of Davis Mills. I’d look for Houston to use their early second round pick on Iowa State running back Breece Hall to really give Mills a chance to succeed. 

  1. New York Jets select Derek Stingley Jr. (CB/LSU)

The cornerback pool has two absolute 1a guys in Stingley and Sauce Gardner. Sauce was the consistent performer who, when he played high quality WRs out of conference, didn’t lose a step. Stingley on the other hand hasn’t been great or healthy since 2019, but it’s very, very hard to overlook how dominant he was in 2019. If he’s recovered from his foot fracture, his upside is too great to let him slip. He has generational ability.  I think the Jets take one of Stingley or Sauce here and honestly neither pick would be wrong. 

  1. New York Giants select Travon Walker (EDGE/Georgia)

No, I don’t think Walker slips to 5 on Thursday. If he does, given that the Giants pick again at 7, this feels like the right place to take a big home run swing, a thing I think teams with multiple firsts should always try to do (it’s what I have the Jets doing at 4). The Giants need help everywhere on defense. Knowing that the team drafting after them took a corner in round 1 last year allows them to leave Sauce available and just hope nobody trades up to 6 for him. 

  1. Carolina Panthers select Charles Cross (OT/Mississippi State)

I think Carolina will draft Malik Willis here, which would be utterly insane. I go with the somewhat safer bet and take the LT who shined against the Alabama defense in 2021 in a pass heavy offense without a lot of talent around him.

  1. New York Giants (from Chicago) select Sauce Gardner (CB/Cincinnati)

See, no one traded up for Sauce…

  1. Atlanta Falcons select Trent McDuffie (CB/Washington)

Here’s my first “reach.” I think any of the next four guys are probably “better” than McDuffie, but the Falcons defense just absolutely stinks. And it especially stinks in the secondary. This is a team that’s absolutely going to be in contention for Bryce Young next year (the presumptive first overall pick in the 2023 Draft). So this is a franchise-building pick rather than some big swing at something they don’t need to swing it. If they draft a QB here, they’re insane. 

  1. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver) select Kayvon Thibodeaux (EDGE/Oregon)

Speaking of teams that should be playing for the first overall pick next year…Seattle got this pick for Russell Wilson and will enter the 2022 season with Drew Lock as their quarterback, which is as close to waving a white flag as a team could get. Thibodeaux in this spot is a must-get for a team that has had trouble getting to the quarterback for years. Like Atlanta, this is absolutely not a place for them to draft a QB. I could also see Kyle Hamilton going here.

  1. New York Jets (from Seattle) select Jameson Williams (WR/Alabama)

This pick came down to Kyle Hamilton and Jameson Williams. I went with Williams because despite his ACL tear in January, I think he’s the best receiver in this class and the only true game-changer in the group. The Jets have done a nice job of building up their receiving corp, but Williams brings something altogether different. Much like Jacksonville with Trevor Lawrence, the Jets need to give Zach Wilson every chance to succeed or, conversely, show that he can’t succeed so that they can move on from him quicker than they did from Sam Darnold. These two picks are risky for the Jets, but if only one hits, they’ll have an All-Pro. If both hit, that’s a franchise-changer.

  1. Washington (sigh) Commanders select Kyle Hamilton (S/Notre Dame)

The Football Commanders get, for my money, the best pure football player in this draft. I’m deeply enamored with defensive guys who can play at multiple levels (see: Simmons, Isaiah). Hamilton is one of those guys. He’s huge for a safety, but can hold his own as an inside corner and can cover the middle of the field like a linebacker. For a fanbase that remains as deeply enamored with Sean Taylor as one could be, Hamilton would represent the best secondary player this franchise has seen since Taylor. 

  1. Minnesota Vikings select Jermaine Johnson II (EDGE/Florida State)

If you’re noticing a bit of a trend in the modern NFL it’s that you cannot have enough bodies who can get to the opposing quarterback. For now, this is a league fixated on the pass. The only ways to counter that are with pressure and great corners. All three corners who I believe will be great are gone and drafted here, leaving Minnesota with the best pass rushing option. Johnson was great at the Senior Bowl and probably the lone bright spot on a horrific Florida State team in 2021. 

  1. Houston Texans (from Cleveland) select Drake London (WR/USC)

After Jameson Williams, the receiving pool becomes a real grab bag. London is by far the biggest and most physical of the bunch and was producing historic numbers in 2021 before an injury ended his season. The trend in the modern NFL appears to be towards smaller, quicker wideouts, but there’s certainly still room for guys like London (Michael Thomas-like) who can control the short and intermediate passing game with their size. The Texans seem to really like Davis Mills. If they do like him, they’ll get him a really talented security blanket to throw to 14 times per game.

  1. Baltimore Ravens select Jordan Davis (NT/Georgia)

If at this time on Thursday, the Ravens have their choice of Georgia’s two standout interior defensive linemen, they’ll be ecstatic. I give the edge (not to be confused with EDGE) to Jordan Davis (who would never be confused for an EDGE). Davis is the kind of player I used to make in Madden. 6’6”. 341 LBS. Runs a 40-yard dash in 4.78 seconds and has 34” arms. Now, it’s extremely unlikely that the Ravens will line Davis up at wideout to use that speed, but the size and arm length will certainly play as a run-stuffing interior force. Haloti Ngata was a cornerstone at the nose tackle position in Baltimore and I envision Davis as that type of player.

  1. Philadelphia Eagles (from Miami) select Garrett Wilson (WR/Ohio State)

See special combined “analysis” below

  1. New Orleans Saints (from Indianapolis via Philly) select Chris Olave (WR/Ohio State)

These teams engaged in one of the weirdest trades of draft picks I can ever remember, shuffling late teens picks around, seemingly to give New Orleans an edge (not EDGE) over the Chargers…I guess? Anyway, Philly probably needs to go back to the well at wide receiver and see if they can finally get that position right. New Orleans needs skill position players desperately. This isn’t the pick where a QB would come in to play, as the Chargers seem pretty set there for the next 15 years and you don’t make the trade they did with Philly without the assurance that your target is safe. In terms of analyzing these two receivers, they’re both kind of the same to me. Similar build. Olave is more of a deep threat with open field speed. Wilson is more of a possession based receiver. I think Wilson is the more steady choice and Philly needs steady at wideout.

  1. Los Angeles Chargers select Devonte Wyatt (DT/Georgia)

There’s a lot of debate about which interior lineman from UGA is better between Wyatt and Davis. I think they’re both really good and Baltimore and LAC would probably be happy to swap them here. The Chargers run defense was awful in 2021 and they’ve made moves to upgrade, but depth is key.

  1. Philadelphia Eagles (from New Orleans) select Nakobe Dean (LB/Georgia)

I love Nakobe Dean because every single time you watch him. he’s making plays. He’s so quick to react to running backs slipping out of the backfield and so quick in his reads of QBs. Maybe he’s not someone’s perfect ideal sized middle linebacker. Whatever. He’s a game-wrecker. I’d have to imagine that given their predilection for athletes who give it on every play, Dean will be a home run in Philly. 

  1. New Orleans Saints (from Philadelphia) select Desmond Ridder (QB/Cincinnati)

Wanna get nuts? Let’s get nuts! Ridder is not going to get drafted 19th overall. But this is where I would take him for all the reasons mentioned in my intro. I just like Ridder better than Willis as an NFL prospect. And I know I’m contradicting my rule about multi-pick teams taking home run swings in leaving Willis on the board. If this is exactly how the Draft plays out on Thursday, I wouldn’t lose my mind over the Saints drafting Willis here and having him…learn (???) from Jameis Winston.

  1. Pittsburgh Steelers select Trevor Penning (OT/Northern Iowa)

Penning is a risky pick, given his FCS background. His Senior Bowl was inconsistent with the most common refrain being that he looked “nasty.” That’s well and good in the FCS and at the Senior Bowl, but there’s no guarantee that nastiness translates to the NFL where talent matters more. However, I look at the Pittsburgh team and think it’s impossible to draft a QB here given how bad their offensive line depth is. I mean, they literally built an offense around Ben Roethlisberger throwing the ball in under 2 seconds because he was so immobile and the line was so leaky. You have to take a chance here on a talented guy with great measurables and hope he’s better than whatever they had last season.

  1. New England Patriots select George Karalaftis (EDGE/Purdue)

The production was not entirely there for Karlaftis during his three seasons as a starter, but there’s a lot of upside here. Karlaftis will be 21 years old during the entirety of the 2022 season. He’s young. He’s also extremely talented, even if that talent didn’t always flash in college. His 2021 season didn’t see him rack up the sack numbers, but he hurried the QB an average of 3 times per game. In terms of need for the Patriots, pass rushing is fairly high on the list, right below “a head coach who smiles more.” 

  1. Green Bay Packers (from Las Vegas) select Tyler Linderbaum (C/Iowa)

To give you an idea of how good Linderbaum is viewed, in 2020 he was the highest graded center in the country, ahead of Creed Humphrey, who would get drafted in the 2nd round of the 2021 Draft by the Chiefs, start all 17 games, and be PFF’s top rated center in the NFL. I think there’s an argument to be made that if you can take a generational talent at their position, regardless of that position (outside of punter, probably) you do it. You especially do it when you lack consistency on the offensive line and that prospect is a center. And you super especially do it when you’re a cold weather team and that player is an interior offensive lineman from Iowa. Green Bay has another pick to address their glaring holes at wide receiver.

  1. Arizona Cardinals select Zion Johnson (G/Boston College)

Can you tell that this is a lineman-heavy first round? Johnson is probably the most underrated prospect so far, due in large part to him playing at BC. Throughout the pre-draft process, Johnson has tested well and moved up draft boards, solidifying himself as the best pure guard in 2021. Arizona made the playoffs last year, though you’d be forgiven if you forgot that. The roster is quite a mess for a playoff team and the franchise quarterback may or may not have indicated that he wants to be traded. Perhaps he’d be happier with a more consistent O-line. 

  1. Dallas Cowboys select Devin Lloyd (LB/Utah)

Do not be surprised if Dallas uses this pick on one of the electric wideouts who are still available here (they’d also love Jameson Williams I’m sure but I doubt that happens). Dallas spent the offseason seemingly increasing their list of needs from defensive tackle and offensive line depth to completely new offensive linemen, a few wide receivers, pass rushing, and competent middle linebacker. Devin Lloyd fills that last role well. Lloyd is great in coverage and against the run. Filling this hole for Dallas would also see Micah Parsons be able to transition to an even-more havoc-wreaking pass rushing monster. 

  1. Buffalo Bills select Skyy Moore (WR/Western Michigan)

If I told you there was a MAC wide receiver named Skyy Moore, the person you’d envision would be exactly Skyy Moore. “Stupid quickness” describes Moore in the open field. Despite all the receivers above him in this draft, he was the highest rated player at the position in FBS. 94 catches for nearly 1300 yards. As far as fit with Buffalo, they lost Cole Beasley this offseason and could replace him with an extremely more dynamic version of him.

  1. Tennessee Titans select David Ojabo (EDGE/Michigan)

What do you do when your immediate needs are relatively superficial and you can fill those later in the Draft? You go and draft the previously consensus first round pick who is slipping because of a freak injury. Ojabo rushed the QB opposite Aidan Hutchinson. There’s some question as to whether his statistical spike was a result of Hutch getting all of the attention. That’s probably fair. But also, Ojabo is super athletic and raw and still learning the position. I’ve mentioned home run swings before. This is it. 

  1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers select Kenyon Green (G/Texas A&M)

Ali Marpet abruptly retired and played the guard position. Kenyon Green is a guard who can also play either tackle, as he showed in college. Tampa’s needs are a bit superficial too (meaning “they could use some <blank> depth” rather than “they have an immediate and pressing need for a <blank>.) Interior line is a higher priority need at the moment given the abrupt un-retiring of Tom Brady.

  1. Green Bay Packers select Treylon Burks (WR/Arkansas)

Okay, so, it happened. Green Bay ended the streak and drafted a WR in the first round for the first time in the Aaron Rodgers era. If the Packers are to somehow keep that streak alive, you would have to call it self-parody, because if Burks is on the board, you draft him. Skyy Moore being drafted ahead of Burks here is more about what the Bills needed than an indictment of Burks, who is just a different guy. Treylon is a classic, big, downfield receiving threat. And right now, Green Bay doesn’t have any receiving that could be deemed a threat. 

  1. Kansas City Chiefs (from San Francisco via Miami) select Andrew Booth Jr. (CB/Clemson)
  1. Kansas City Chiefs select Jahan Dotson (WR/Penn State)

Rarer than the supermoon, it’s the back-to-back first round picks from one team. Kansas City’s two biggest offseason losses were a big, physical corner in Charvarius Ward and an undersized speedster receiver with big play ability in Tyreek Hill. Check and check. And no, I don’t think Jahan Dotson just automatically becomes Tyreek Hill. His open field speed is once-in-a-generation. But a slightly lesser Tyreek Hill is still a really good NFL receiver.

  1. Cincinnati Bengals select Jalen Pitre (Secondary/Baylor)

When I got to Cincinnati I realized this particular mock draft would be the nightmare scenario for them, because I’m sure they’d love some more offensive line depth or more pass rushing prowess. Instead we move to the next biggest need which is secondary. I lean Pitre over Kaiir Elam, Roger McCreary, and Kyler Gordon because of his positional flexibility and pedigree of success (2021 Big XII Player of the Year). He is probably a safety in the NFL, but I also think Cincy could get away with him as a nickelback when needed..

  1. Detroit Lions (from LA Rams) select Malik Willis (QB/Liberty)

Home run? Time will tell. All I know is that Jared Goff is nobody’s answer at QB. Let him play out the final year of significant dead cap damage (from $41 million in 2022 to $10 million in ‘23) while focusing all of the development on Willis. Hell, give him all of the starter reps in practice and then make Goff go out there on Sundays. Go 2-15, waive Goff at the first chance and continue to build around Penei Sewell, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Aidan Hutchinson and Malik Willis (if this scenario plays out) with a high 2023 pick. And don’t completely give up on Jeff Okudah, 2020’s top 3 pick. Injury has cost him the early part of his career, but you’d have to imagine the talent isn’t gone. The Lions have some really good young centerpieces and with Aaron Rodgers potentially quitting mid-season during a Pat McAfee podcast, the NFC North could be up for grabs sooner rather than later. The Willis gamble is worth taking at this late stage of the first round, because as I see it, Detroit is the next team up in this division given their great drafting last year.

***

So what else? Well, at QB we’re left with Kenny Pickett, Matt Corral, and Sam Howell. Highest ceiling is probably Howell even though he’s a mechanical nightmare. Then I’d take Pickett to be my Andy Dalton. And after that, Corral, who I think probably belongs closer to the next rung of QBs with Carson Strong and Bailey Zappe. 

At running back, if this was 2005, Breece Hall would be a top 10 pick. He can catch the ball out of the backfield and run between the tackles with great skill. That kind of versatility is vital in today’s NFL. 

The  wideout to note is John Metchie III who was a likely first rounder until he tore his ACL in the SEC Championship game. He won’t be recovered in time to make a Week 1 impact, but the talent is worth an early second round investment certainly, especially for a team like Seattle who have two second round picks and a need to rebuild. 

If you’re anything like me, I am deeply sorry. But also, you probably enjoy watching anomalies. Players like Jordan Davis who are literally twice the size of another person who run at Olympic sprinter speeds. It’s particularly jaw-dropping in professional wrestling to see the big 7’0” “GIANT!” execute a top rope moonsault. Then there’s Minnesota’s Daniel Faalele, who is 6’8” and just a hint under 385 lbs. I don’t know if Daniel can do moonsaults. And even though he didn’t run the 40 at the Combine, I’m confident that Daniel cannot run a sub-5.00 40-yard dash. But I do know that Daniel is really big. Can a player that big in height and weight succeed (he’s 40 lbs heavier than Jonathan Ogden) as a left tackle? I’ll be waiting to find out. 

On the defensive side of the ball, I fully expect there to be a League-wide infatuation with Georgia’s defensive players and could see two more (Safety Lewis Cine and LB Quay Walker) sneaking into the end of the first round. Walker especially has really big potential to be a long-term fixture in the NFL. 

Enjoy the Draft. I would like to do this professionally.

2021 NFL Mock Draft

/ Jason / Leave a comment

What follows is my mock draft. It’s different from most mock drafts because nobody talks to me, I’ll probably not proofread it, and I don’t plan to promote it on social media.

Why should you continue reading? I follow the sport. I read a lot. I follow college football. I pay $20 a year for this domain name. If you’ve stumbled here through an errant Google or Bing search, I’m sorry. But maybe keep reading.

I write these posts for me, really. Sure, I’d like for someone to read this and think that I can write competently and know a thing or two about football. But more than anything, I like to have a place where I can look back on my thoughts a few years from now and say “Good job” or “Bad job.”

The mock draft below is not my attempt to go 32/32 (I’m bolding this for the people who don’t read the intro). I’m draft for each team as though I were their GM, operating with unilateral decision making powers. I’m drafting the players I think are best at each position based on what I saw in college and what I’ve read from a collection of draft sources. Let’s go.

1.Jacksonville Jaguars select Trevor Lawrence (QB/Clemson) I’m not going to be cute here. Lawrence is the best QB in this draft and probably the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck. He’s so good that the most common knock on him at this point is that maybe he doesn’t love football like a maniacal obsessive. I think that’s a fine thing. He’ll be a Day 1 starter and a really good one at that.

2. New York Jets select Justin Fields (QB/Ohio State) In real life, the Jets will take Zach Wilson. I’ll talk about him at some point in this first round (probably!). Of course, this pick didn’t need to be used on a QB. The Jets had Sam Darnold, who they just drafted third overall in 2018 (after giving up a haul of picks to move up to select him), but they traded him to Carolina earlier this month for table scraps in the form of draft picks. Fields to me is a much safer bet than Wilson. His ceiling is higher than I think he’s getting credit for and I wonder how much of the negative thinking around him is because of Ohio State’s failure to create good NFL QBs (and also racism). Fields is not Cardale Jones, JT Barrett, or Dwayne Haskins. Fields is deadly accurate in the pocket, can throw on the run, and has the size you want in a starting QB. There’s also a bunch of game tape against NFL-light defenses (Clemson twice, Alabama once, Big 10 opponents). Zach Wilson played Coastal Carolina last year and wasn’t very good.

3. San Francisco 49ers select Trey Lance (QB/North Dakota State) San Francisco traded up to this spot to, the world assumes, draft a quarterback. I think in a perfect world, they’d take one more run at it with Jimmy Garoppolo, but they must be either nervous about his medicals or just generally nervous about him medically. The other 21 starters are really good. Collectively probably a top 5 team in the NFL. Injuries ravaged them last year, including to Jimmy G. I would have stayed put at the 12 spot where there will be really good value. Here, I take Trey Lance who is a more accurate Josh Allen on paper. Lance is big, fast, and very accurate. He didn’t lose a game in college and didn’t throw an interception. He also didn’t play against FBS competition. But the attributes and attitude are great on Lance and teams have done well with North Dakota State quarterbacks in recent years (the Eagles don’t get to the Super Bowl without Carson Wentz). Can Lance start on Day 1 for a team that should have Super Bowl aspirations? That’s a good question and one that leaves me wondering why the 49ers traded into this spot.

4. Atlanta Falcons select Kyle Pitts (TE/Florida) Truthfully, the Jets should have kept Darnold and drafted Pitts. Likewise Miami should have stayed at 3 and drafted Pitts. Pitts is a unicorn. He’s a create-a-player in Madden. He can play outside as a receiver. He can play inside as a tight end. He can be physical over the middle. He can burn cornerbacks deep. Pitts should define the tight end position for the next generation and should be the ultimate gamechanger. Are there other needs for Atlanta? Certainly. Their defense is the pits (pun intended) or maybe it’s…for the birds (ha!). Atlanta could trade back into the teens to draft one of the cornerbacks, but they’d be passing up on the kind of talent that gets GMS fired for passing up on them.

5. Cincinnati Bengals select Penei Sewell (OT/Oregon) Last season ended for the Bengals when their franchise quarterback, who had spent the season being hammered behind a bad offensive line, tore his ACL and MCL. You don’t draft a franchise quarterback and throw him behind a bad offensive line just like you don’t buy a Bugatti and leave it unlocked in a Von’s parking lot with the keys in and the door wide open. Sewell, as a prospect, is a lot more than just insurance for Burrow. This isn’t meant to sell him short. But Cincy would be making a huge mistake if they drafted a skill position player here. Sewell should be a top-tier LT for the next decade. You cannot win in the NFL without players like Sewell.

6. Miami Dolphins select Ja’Marr Chase (WR/LSU) Chase sat out the 2020 “season” as did Sewell and others who you’ll find here. When we last saw Chase on the field, he was making then-Clemson CB AJ Terrell his son in the National Championship Game. Terrell went on to be a first round pick by the Falcons and was mostly fine in his rookie season. Chase has the potential to be a whole heck of a lot better than “fine.” Think Justin Jefferson in Minnesota. Chase isn’t a huge outside receiver. But he’s fast and plays physically for his size (6’0″). And then there’s that tape against AJ Terrell where it’s hard to understate just how much he outplayed Terrell. Miami should stick with Tua and surround him with as many high-end skill position players as possible. Outside of Pitts, it doesn’t get more high end than Ja’Marr Chase in this draft.

7. Detroit Lions select Zach Wilson (QB/BYU) Look, the Lions are a bad football team. Really bad. I don’t think there’s another team in the NFL who is further away from simply being a playoff team than Detroit. They made the weird offseason trade for Jared Goff, who is absolutely nothing more than a middling QB. They hired an absolute weirdo football robot (Dan Campbell) to be their head coach. And they lost their top receiver, Kenny Golladay, in free agency to the Giants. If I’m in this spot, I’m taking the best trade offer on the table and acquiring assets to begin a legitimate 3 year build. I’ve never proposed trades before in a mock and I’m not going to do one here (Denver moving up would make a lot of sense). The other elephant in the room here is that on draft night, Zach Wilson will not be here. As we’ve established, he’s getting drafted IRL by the Jets, which means that on draft night, Detroit should draft the best available quarterback here if they’re not moving back. As for Wilson, I’m not a believer in him as the second best QB in this class. I think he certainly has a high ceiling, but his floor is an Olympic diving pool. It really feels like Wilson through one pass at his pro day and earned himself millions of dollars. And if Zach Wilson is making cross body, 60 yard passes on the regular, I can’t really say his team will be winning games. I’m much more concerned with his accuracy in the short and medium field than if he can do circus tricks with a football (that, by the way, Justin Fields can also do). TLDR: Detroit is a mess and Wilson is either the answer (as a franchise quarterback) or the answer (in the form of the impetus to tear it all down and start from scratch).

8. Carolina Panthers select Devonta Smith (WR/Alabama) Carolina has Teddy Bridgewater (traded to Denver while this was in DRAFTS), PJ Walker, and Sam Darnold on their roster, so taking Mac Jones here would be superfluous. Darnold deserves a chance to play QB for a competent coach (Joe Brady is a decided upgrade over Adam Gase), so I’m taking the Heisman Trophy winner and pairing him with DJ Moore and Robby Anderson to give Darnold a really diverse receiving corps. Smith is a human Dyson vacuum in the slot or outside. Whether he can play on the outside in the NFL at his size (6’0″, 170 LBS) is the biggest question mark. He runs precise routes, he’s a team leader, he’s explosive at the line. He’s everything you want in a receiver. Except he weighs 170 LBS. Carolina has a window to compete with Matt Ryan aging and the Saints in transition. Starting over with a rookie QB just doesn’t feel the way to go here. Especially when you have a talented, young QB who has never had a real shot to be good.

9. Denver Broncos select Micah Parsons (LB/Penn State) If this scenario plays out and the only QB on the board is Mac Jones, Denver should hand in this card in roughly 2.5 seconds. Parsons is a perfect fit for head coach Vic Fangio’s defense, in that he’s an excellent and versatile linebacker. It’s rare to see an inside linebacker go this high in the modern NFL, but Parsons is worth the top 10 pick. He can cover the Travis Kelce’s of the world and tackle the Josh Jacobs’s too. You can build a really good defense around guys like Parsons. And when you play Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert 4 times per year, you better have a good defense.

10. Dallas Cowboys select Patrick Surtain II (CB/Alabama) I fall in love with big cover cornerbacks very very easily. And boy did I fall in love with Surtain II. Dallas’s pass defense was abysmal in 2020 and the jury is still out on Trevon Diggs, their second round CB selection in last year’s draft. Diggs’ former Alabama teammate is the prototypical outside man cover corner. He shut down half the field in college. That won’t be the case initially in the NFL. Teams will challenge rookie corners. But I think Surtain has the ball instincts to make teams regret that quickly. He won’t win DROY because the counting stats won’t be there, but the counting stats likely won’t be there because teams will avoid his side of the field.

11. New York Giants select Alijah Vera-Tucker (OL/USC) Whether the Giants want to use Vera-Tucker at Tackle or Guard is their choice. I’d start him at Guard. He’s versatile enough to play almost anywhere on the offensive line and the Giants have loooooong had trouble protecting the QB. The Giants are in an interesting spot here with the QB Jones still on the board (if other mocks are more accurate, it’ll likely be Fields that falls). Vera-Tucker is arguably a reach here depending on who you read. For me, this is a great spot for a versatile offensive lineman with a great motor. But the Giants would be wise to consider acquiring assets, moving down into the lower teens/early 20s (Chicago at 20 would make sense) and hoping that Vera-Tucker is there. And if he’s not, the Giants have a need for an edge rusher, an interior defensive lineman, and even Saquon Barkley insurance.

12. Philadelphia Eagles select Jaylen Waddle (WR/Alabama) Philly finds itself inching closer and closer to Detroit Lions territory with this pick. Last year, with Justin Jefferson on the board, the Eagles inexplicably drafted Jalen Reagor. Two years ago, they used a second round pick on JJ Arcega-Whiteside just a few slots after AJ Brown and a few before DK Metcalf. It’s time for Philly to stop being cute on draft day and take the best available player at a position of real need for them. Luckily for the Eagles, they have a bunch of draft picks this year to fill out a depleted roster. But if they’re going to find out if Jalen Hurts can be their QB long-term, he’ll need more than Reagor and JAW catching passes. Waddle played in just five games last year (only 4 of which he was healthy for) and averaged 20 yards per reception in each game. He is explosive and could find himself in the Pro Bowl solely as a return man in the NFL. He is much more than a specialist though. There really is no gap between Waddle and his Alabama teammate Devonta Smith and I could definitely see Waddle get drafted ahead of his smaller college teammate despite Smith’s collection of college hardware.

13. Los Angeles Chargers select Rashawn Slater (OT/Northwestern) With Waddle off the board, this has to come down to one of the two remaining high-level tackles or Jaycee Horn. Protecting Justin Herbert is imperative which makes this an easy decision. Slater was an absolute brick wall in terms of protecting the QB at Northwestern and would be a Day 1 starter on Herbert’s blind side. (A note on Herbert: I’ve been playing NFL draft guessing games for a long time and once in a while, I’m right, while sometimes I’m wrong. Never have I been more wrong than with Justin Herbert, who I didn’t think was worth a first round pick last year. Herbert showed incredible growth from his time at Oregon and looks to be a franchise cornerstone in Los Angeles. Mea culpa on that one.)

14. Minnesota Vikings select Christian Darrisaw (OT/Virginia Tech) Minnesota is another team, like Philly with about 18 holes to fill on their roster. The board as it played out here, very much fell in their favor. Vera-Tucker would also have been a great pick for them because of his versatility, as Minnesota has real needs on the interior of the offensive line too, but Darrisaw is too good and was too consistent at Virginia Tech to pass up here. He allowed zero sacks and only 5 quarterback hurries in his last season in Blacksburg. Equally good as a run blocker and a pass blocker, he makes perfect sense for the Vikings, who will also have a number of suitors at this point.

(SIDEBAR BREAK: I think it’s very likely that one of the five QBs takes a tumble on Thursday. Here it’s Mac Jones because I think he probably should take a tumble. New England is coming up and the experts seem to think they’ll swing a trade to move up and draft a QB. But there are a bunch of other teams that should also consider moving into the mid-teens if a QB is available (Pittsburgh, Washington, Chicago, maybe the Saints). And New England has never been shy about needlessly trading back and acquiring draft capital that they’ll waste on kickers and long snappers.)

15. New England Patriots select Mac Jones (QB/Alabama) The Patriots should be much, much better in 2021 than they were in 2020. They spent big in free agency and will get a number of 2020 opt-outs back. One area where they are decidedly not better is QB. Cam Newton was awful in the latter stretches of the season and should absolutely not be the Week 1 starter for any NFL team. New England didn’t pursue an upgrade which has to mean they’re targeting a QB, right? Jones is not the perfect NFL QB. He’s very accurate at all three levels, but was also throwing to two first rounders and handing off to maybe another. And he was playing behind an offensive line with at least three top 60 picks this year. That said, he’s not terribly dissimilar in makeup to Tom Brady. In fact, his arm is probably a little stronger. His relative immobility hurts, but would you rather have a QB that can make all the throws (Jones) or whatever it is that Cam Newton is now?

16. Arizona Cardinals select Jaycee Horn (CB/South Carolina) Patrick Peterson is gone, which at this juncture in his career isn’t the worst thing in the world for Arizona. If Horn falls, he should be the pick. He’s another big (6’1″) man-cover corner with experience playing at the highest level in college football. Look for this pick to lean defense for a franchise that will need to upgrade at all three levels to make a serious playoff run during Kyler Murray’s prime and while DeAndre Hopkins is still around.

17. Las Vegas Raiders select Trevon Moehrig (S/TCU) Vegas fits into the Minnesota/Philly spot of just needing players everywhere. The Raiders decided to essentially layoff their entire offensive line, so that would make sense here, but there’s no real value left on this board. I go with Moehrig who is a versatile safety that can play in the slot (in fact he took as many snaps there in 2020 as he did at safety) and is a sound tackler. Not a sexy “Raiders” pick but a really good football player on a team that needs a lot of those.

18. Miami Dolphins select Zaven Collins (OLB/Tulsa) Miami has 4 of the top fifty picks in this draft, so while some may see drafting Collins here as a reach, I see it as an investment opportunity. He’s an athletic freak at 6’5″. He can play at OLB as an edge rusher or as a coverage backer. Brian Flores is a great defensive coach who should be able to tap into Collins’ size and skill to make him a star, albeit an unconventional one given his size. Had Collins gone to a bigger school, given his measurables, I think you’re looking at a top 10 pick in this draft. He’s really good.

19. Washington Football Team select(s) Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB/Notre Dame) This is the perfect scenario for the WFT. Sure, the PERFECT scenario would be Trevor Lawrence inexplicably and impossibly falling to 19. Short of one of the 5 QBs being there (and I honestly don’t even think Mac Jones would be a great pick for them) though, this is the guy to target. Pass rush is not a problem for WFT. Pass coverage in the medium game is though and Owusu-Koramoah solves that problem on day one. He’s explosively quick for his position, something you can credit in part to his relative lack of size (2 inches shorter and 20+ LB lighter than Micah Parsons). QB is going to be an issue for the Football Team in 2021 and beyond. And they could certainly use a WR in this draft. But there is some depth at those positions, especially WR.

20. Chicago Bears select Greg Newsome II (CB/Northwestern) When in doubt, take the local kid? The Bears are in a no-win situation. There’s a fall-off in talent at about this point and they have a lot of needs. They drafted Jaylon Johnson last year and he showed competency as a cornerback. Corner isn’t the most pressing of needs for Chicago (that’s QB), but Newsome is the top player on my board and they could certainly stand to get better in the secondary. The front 6 or 7 should be just fine.

21. Indianapolis Colts select Elijah Moore (WR/Mississippi) …and they don’t even have to think about it very long. Moore is the prototypical slot WR, which I think 10 years ago might have sounded dismissive, but really, how often do teams not run a 3 WR set in the modern NFL. He’s blazingly fast with great hands. Think a richer man’s TY Hilton.

22. Tennessee Titans select Kadarius Toney (WR/Florida) It’s a run on 6’0″ and under SEC wideouts. Toney is so quick he makes Elijah Moore look like late career Wes Welker, who would simply catch the ball and fall down. There are less flashy wideouts, like Rashod Bateman, on the board here, but Toney would give the physical Titans offense a spark that would really make teams less inclined to load the box to stop Derrick Henry. With AJ Brown doing AJ Brown stuff on the outside and Toney doing what he can do (shredding apart the middle of the field), Tennessee would have one of the more dynamic offenses in the AFC.

23. New York Jets select Kwity Paye (Edge/Michigan) The Jets need guys who can get to the QB. Vinny Curry’s 3 total sacks in 2020 just ain’t cutting it. Pair the twitchy and technically sound Paye with Carl Lawson on the outside and, of course, you’ve got Quinnen Williams in the middle and all of a sudden, the Jets front 4 looks way better than it did in 2020.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers select Teven Jenkins (OL/Oklahoma State) I have Jenkins listed as an OL rather than an OT because the knock on him is that he has short arms, typically an indicator that a move to the inside is coming. For Pittsburgh that would be fine because their offensive line was atrocious in 2020 and they lost both of their tackles. Pittsburgh needs a QB and needs one soon. I’d look for them to move up in the second round (from 55) to take the best available QB to sit behind Roethlisberger for a year. This spot is just too early to take a Kellen Mond however.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars select Liam Eichenberg (OG/Notre Dame) Like Jenkins before him, Eichenberg is a short-armer. Otherwise, we’re looking at a guy who should be a sure-fire top 20 pick. As it stands, he might not get selected on Thursday, but whoever does draft him is going to get a versatile lineman who they can try at tackle, should the need be there. Jacksonville is better off with him at guard where he should excel. He registered just under a 90 grade from Pro Football Focus last season. He’s good and I’m not sure why there’s not more chatter about him.

26. Cleveland Browns select Christian Baramore (DT/Alabama) Baramore had an absolutely phenomenal CFP National Championship game. On a field that featured enough players to make their own first round, Baramore might have been the best player out there. The tape doesn’t all look like that for him though, which is why he falls to the Browns who are desperate for an interior force on their defensive line. If they get the guy who ran roughshod over Ohio State’s offensive line, they’ll have the steal of the draft. If they get the balance of good tape-bad tape, they’re still upgrading.

27. Baltimore Ravens select Jayson Oweh (Edge/Penn State) Derek Wolfe is a fine player, but at this stage in his career, he’s just not an every down pass rusher. Enter Oweh, whose measurables (size/speed) are off the charts and whose game tape is…fine. Baltimore has a way of getting the best out of their guys and I think this is a perfect landing spot for an uber talented guy who just didn’t put it all together in college.

28. New Orleans Saints select Caleb Farley (CB/Virginia Tech) Do this little exercise six months ago and Farley isn’t escaping the top 15. His medicals are a concern. Sciatica. Herniated discs. Multiple surgeries. He sat out the 2020 season so there’s no fresh tape on him. This is the riskiest pick in the first round. If Farley is healthy enough to go, the Saints are getting the best corner outside of Surtain, at a position of need. If he’s not, a team that has a lot of nagging little holes will have wasted valuable draft capital.

29. Green Bay Packers select Dillon Radunz (OT/North Dakota State) Two NDSU players in the first round and only one Clemson player. Go figure. Anyway, wide receiver would be a smart pick here, but I’m just not that high on Rashod Bateman and my most recent memory of Green Bay is watching their offensive line get annihilated by the Bucs in the playoffs. The window to win with Aaron Rodgers is closing and who knows what Jordan Love will be. Better to wait on one of the second round wideouts and protect their future Hall of Famer better than they did in 2020.

30. Buffalo Bills select Jaelen Phillips (Edge/Miami) As versatile of an edge rusher as you’ll find, Buffalo could move Phillips inside at times should the need arise. Buffalo drafted AJ Epenesa last year to mixed results. The one area where the Bills need to get better is pressuring the QB. They just might want to get Phillips (who played at Miami after transferring from UCLA) some warm weather gear.

31. Baltimore Ravens select Terrance Marshall Jr. (WR/LSU) Marshall is a big, fast outside receiver, which is arguably the position most lacking for the Ravens. Lamar Jackson needs guys to throw to and especially guys who can get downfield. Offensive tackle is certainly a consideration after Baltimore traded Orlando Brown Jr. for this pick, but the board has shook out in a way where I think at 58 the Ravens will be able to solidify their line with a bit of a project. And I trust this front office more than any other to select well.

32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers select Asante Samuel Jr. (CB/Florida State) No team is perfect, certainly, but Tampa is so good that they just won the Super Bowl with a 43 year old QB who has lost a significant portion of his arm strength and has the mobility of a cinder block. There’s a line of thinking that they need to look to the post-Brady era, but I’m of the mind that they need to shore up the immediate areas of weakness and one of them is CB. Samuel can play the slot if needed and provides depth at a position that had a topsy-turvy 2020. The re-signing of Antonio Brown made this a no-brainer to me.

The next QB off the board should be Kellen Mond, who is built in the Dak Prescott mold. He’s got an incredible arm and good size. Someone of the Washington, Pittsburgh, Chicago group of teams who missed out on one of the five should target Mond in the middle of the 2nd round.

It was hard to find a spot for one of the running backs in this draft. It’s simply the nature of the NFL. Najee Harris, Travis Etienne, and Javonte Williams would all have been first rounders in the past. Any one of the three could easily be an Offensive Rookie of the Year in the right scheme, especially Williams who I think will catch a lot of people off guard.

The only receiver who I have falling is Rashod Bateman who was just too inconsistent for me at Minnesota. He’s not particularly big, nor is he particularly fast. He’s a good route runner, but we saw what being a good route runner can get you in the NFL in Jerry Jeudy last year. I want guys who can get themselves open and with guys like Elijah Moore and Kadarius Toney, Bateman slips to round 2. He should still be a productive enough receiver in the NFL, but he isn’t going to be a star.

My second round (and later) wideouts to watch are Rondale Moore, who will be used as a gadget guy because he’s basically my size, D’Wayne Eskridge another in the mold of Elijah Moore and Kadarius Toney who is being overlooked, I’d imagine, because he played college in Kalamazoo, and Tylan Wallace who is a physical wideout for his size and with the right team looks to be a long-term star in the slot.

I’ll be very interested to see who drafts Gregory Rousseau, a giant edge rusher from Miami who sat out the 2020 season and has seen his draft stock slip significantly. He’s a freak in the mold of Calais Campbell, but I think that kind of size will scare off some teams into thinking he won’t have the speed to be a productive rusher in the NFL.

I’ll probably have more thoughts on Twitter @jason_botelho. Enjoy the Draft.