NFL DRAFT

2024 NFL Mock Draft

/ Jason / Leave a comment

Instead of a long intro, I’ll simply apologize to anyone who still reads these that I continue to post on this horrifyingly unattractive medium. I’ve toyed with the idea of upgrading how and where I post these but truthfully, there’s just so little traffic and I produce so little content. We could get into a therapy session about whether the lack of content is a result of the little traffic or vice versa, but you’re not my therapist. No one is! I live in Los Angeles and have Blue Cross Blue Shield.

The only differences here versus any other year is that the picks are more of a common-sense selection process than one based entirely on my own rankings. And I included trades! I used both PFF’s tool to create trades that had at least a 75% chance of approval. Here we go:

  1. Chicago Bears select Caleb Williams(QB/USC)

This is kind of a no-brainer and it would be weird and performative to slot any other player to Chicago here. Even if you don’t think Williams is the second coming of Patrick Mahomes, his floor is very high. I’d go so far as to say it’s a dialed back Andrew Luck but with more open field speed and pocket mobility. Williams makes a lot of off-platform throws and those make the highlight reels, but he’s a good and in fact extremely underrated pocket QB who might actually be excellent surrounded by better coaching and skill players than he had at USC. Anyone else here is overthinking things.

  1. Washington Commanders select Jayden Daniels (QB/LSU)

Okay, we’ve moved past the no-brainer portion of the draft. I would hate to have this pick. Truly. There are so many good offensive tackles and wideouts and cornerbacks and interior defensive linemen, but you have to draft a QB here if you’re the Artist Formerly Known as the Football Team. For me, it’s either Daniels or Drake Maye and I lean Daniels, ever so slightly, because of his upside. But man, does his extremely skinny frame and reckless open-field running worry the crap out of me. 

  1. New England Patriots select Marvin Harrison (WR/Ohio State)

This might seem like a contrarian curveball but think about it: New England can take a risky QB prospect in this spot or a universally-agreed upon generational WR talent. When in the course of draft history has the risky QB pick worked out better than the generational skill position pick? It’s different for Washignton at pick 2 because they have their choice of guys. New England doesn’t have that. They have Jacoby Brissett, a more than competent NFL starting QB and a really barren roster. I’d rather build pieces and look to fill QB next year with someone like Quinn Ewers or whoever pulls a Jayden Daniels or Joe Burrow and skyrockets up draft boards. *googles “LSU 2025 starting quarterback:*

  1. TRADE (Minnesota sends both 2024 firsts, picks 166 and 167 to Cardinals for pick 4) 

Minnesota selects Drake Maye (QB/UNC)

I have resisted the urge to do trades for as long as I’ve been doing this, which is I think 16 years. But this year’s draft changes things. There’s just too much need everywhere and too many teams that are whole rosters away from competing. Perhaps no team best exemplifies that latter bit than the Arizona Cardinals, who miss out on Marvin Harrison here, but choose to slide back to 11, acquire an additional first this year (they already had an additional first), and two later round picks. In moving up, Minnesota drafts the best available QB. Maye has a big arm and great size and good mobility. He is a “system” guy and the last two UNC guys (Mitch Trubisky and Sam Howell) didn’t exactly set the NFL ablaze. But Minnesota is a much better place for a rookie QB to learn on the job, with Justin Jefferson ready to catch anything thrown to him. Minnesota pays a hefty price in giving up both of their first rounders, but keep a chunk of their depth picks. 

  1. TRADE (Las Vegas sends a 2024 round 1, a 2025 round 1, 77, 112, 148 to Chargers for pick 5 and pick 69) 

Las Vegas selects JJ McCarthy (QB/Michigan)

We’ve got trade fever. Panicking that they’re going to enter 2024 with Aiden O’Connell as their QB1, Vegas makes an intra division trade with another team in need of draft assets. Now, look, I think JJ McCarthy at 1:5 is an utterly comical risk. I just don’t see where his upside is. Is there some kind of mysterious arm strength or accuracy that he’s been hiding from us? Is he about to grow a few inches? In the modern NFL Draft landscape, I don’t know that we’ve seen a QB with so little in the way of impressive statistics, at any point in his college career, move himself from “not even being talked about” to “top 5 pick.” So I’ll just say, I think the speed of the NFL will destroy JJ McCarthy and this pick will be an immense bust. But like I said, we’re doing groupthink this year.

  1. TRADE (Atlanta sends picks 8, 74, 109, 143, and 187 to Giants for 6) 

Atlanta selects Joe Alt (LT/Notre Dame)

Every ounce of chatter, every mock draft, every simulation, has Tennessee drafting Joe Alt at 1:7. So Atlanta pulls a fast one and gets the true franchise, Day 1 LT in this draft. And there are a lot of good tackles in this draft, some with extremely high upside. But Alt is the only one that has All-Pro potential. Atlanta just spent a lot of money on Kirk Cousins. They have talent at all the skill positions. It’s time for them to get serious and build a team in the trenches. They give up a bevy of picks to move up two spots but no one will question that when Alt is a multi-time Pro Bowler.

  1. Tennessee Titans select Rome Odunze (WR/Washington)

Tennessee’s consolation prize for missing out on Alt is a player who I think is the best WR in this class. Malik Nabers is faster. Marvin Harrison has a more dynamic grasp of route running. But Odunze is the most complete all-around receiver. He’s stronger than Nabers or Harrison. I like his hands better than either of the other two. And his contested-catch ability is second to none. I’m in love with him as a pro prospect. Logic and reason says that Harrison is the first receiver off the board, but for me, Odunze is a steal here for a team that is perpetually looking for a star pass catcher in his prime. 

  1. New York Giants (from Atlanta) select Malik Nabers (WR/LSU)

The Giants move back two spots, acquire 4 additional picks this year, and still get one of the big 3 WRs. Nabers is the speedster. A guy who can line up in the slot and win or a guy who can line up outside and burn. He is electrifying which is something the Giants have lacked at WR since another guy from Louisiana State University. 

  1. Chicago Bears select Byron Murphy II (DT/Texas)

The hope for most people in Chicago seems to be that one of the WRs falls to them. That doesn’t happen here, but WR is absurdly deep in this draft. Like, truly 10 impact guys deep. Chicago will have an opportunity to take whatever flavor WR they like in Round 3 or 4. Instead they get the best interior lineman in the draft, a guy who possesses insane athleticism who should benefit greatly early on from one-on-one matchups in the trenches, something he didn’t see often at Texas. 

  1. New York Jets select Taliese Fuaga (OT/Oregon State)

If the Jets don’t draft an offensive lineman in this incredibly fortuitous situation, they should also move to Las Vegas, but quit football and become a part-time bartender at a 3-star casino. Fuaga played exclusively RT at Oregon State and there was no one better in college football.

  1. Arizona Cardinals (from Minnesota) select Quinyon Mitchell (CB/Toledo)

Arizona’s roster is what NFL insiders call “gross” and “depleted” and “directionless” and “bad.” Their roster is so bad that we’ve all just assumed that Kyler Murray is a franchise QB and they shouldn’t even think about it, because my god if they spent a moment trying to replace QB, I can’t fathom how much further this roster would fall into disrepair. Anyway, that’s why I love the fake trade they made with Minnesota so much. Three first-round picks should net 3 starters on opening day. They start with Quinyon Mitchell, who set the postseason workout circuit ablaze. He’s a complete CB. A one-on-one guy who can tackle like a safety. In a division with DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk, this is a solid need for Arizona to address. 

  1. Denver Broncos select Dallas Turner (EDGE/Alabama)

Denver wanted to move up to draft Maye or McCarthy but they lacked the assets to do so, perhaps due in some part to the Russell Wilson debacle. So instead they stand here at 12, looking like Vincent Vega waiting on Mia Wallace…oh my god I’m so sorry, Bill Simmons just stole my ASUS laptop computer. Denver needs impact players all over the field, and here they get the top pass rusher in the draft. 

  1. Los Angeles Chargers (from Las Vegas) select JC Latham (RT/Alabama)

Moving back from 5 was key for the Chargers. Sure, they could have drafted Joe Alt and then had him draw straws with Rashawn Slater to determine who would anchor which tackle position. OR they could draft a true RT and acquire a third this season and a future first from a team that should be pretty bad in 2025. I like this scenario better. Jim Harbaugh has his principles and one of them is that offensive lines matter. Offensive line has long been a nightmare for LA’s lesser son. Problem…well, not solved, but problem…less problematic?

  1. New Orleans Saints select Troy Fautanu (LT/Washington)

If I paid Derek Carr a lot of money to play QB for my team, I sure as heck would make sure that I was protecting his blind side and doing so with someone a lot better than Trevor Penning.

  1. Indianapolis Colts select Brock Bowers (TE/Georgia)

This has to be a dream scenario for the Colts. They’re thin at pass-catcher and in Bowers they get a game-wrecking, who-knows-what-he-is pass catching dynamo. Bowers should present a lot of matchup problems for opposing defenses and should make Michael Pittman’s life (and by proxy Anthony Richardson’s) much easier. And Indianapolis didn’t have to move an inch to get their guy.

  1. Seattle Seahawks select Laiatu Latu (EDGE/UCLA)

This will be the year that the Seahawks address their anemic pass rush. No, really. I can feel it. 

  1. Jacksonville Jaguars select Cooper DeJean (CB/Iowa)

DeJean will either get drafted in the top 10 or will fall to the second round. Reviews are all over the place. Some people don’t think he can play CB. Some think he can but that he would be an excellent safety. Some see a special teams ace. And others think he’s the best corner in the draft. So, uh??? I think he lies between the second and fourth options there. He’s just so athletic and look, if we’re being honest, he’s a white secondary player and I think that throws a lot of people off. The Jaguars need playmakers in their secondary. If DeJean is a CB1 that’s awesome. If he’s a Pro Bowl safety? That’s cool too. If he’s even a good starter that’s also an upgrade. 

  1. Cincinnati Bengals select Olumuyiwa Fashanu (OT/Penn State)

This will be the year that the Bengals address their anemic pass blocking. No, really. I can feel it.

  1. Los Angeles Rams select Amarius Mims (OT/Georgia)

This is the Rams first first-round pick since they took Jared Goff in 2016. 8 years. It’s a credit to their scouting department that they haven’t had a long-term fall off. They could go in a number of directions here, but I’d like to see them take Mims, a high ceiling, low floor right tackle. Mims had an injury-derailed final season at Georgia, which contributed to his career total of 8 starts. Still, there’s a lot to like here and it’s a worthwhile gamble for a team that’s been doing well without any opportunities to gamble.

  1. Pittsburgh Steelers Terrion Arnold (CB/Alabama)

Well, they don’t need a QB…I have no idea what Pittsburgh is doing on the offensive side of the ball, so let’s give them the best available player at a position of need on defense and move on.

  1. TRADE (Tampa Bay sends 26, 89, and 125 to Miami for 21 and 198) 

Tampa Bay selects Jared Verse (EDGE/Florida State)

Sensing that they could lose out on a really good pass rusher, Tampa swaps firsts with Miami and sends a third and fourth their way to try to find an answer at EDGE. I think the jury has deliberated sufficiently on Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and while he’s not a full-on bust, he’s not a game changer. Tampa is aging rapidly on defense. Verse is on paper a big upgrade over JTS.

  1. Philadelphia Eagles select Adonai Mitchell (WR/Texas)

Two years ago, the Eagles could have let the internet vote for their first round draft pick and it wouldn’t have mattered. That’s how much depth they had. Now? The margin to miss on this pick is getting pretty thin. They need to get younger on the offensive line. They need secondary depth. They could afford to replace Jordan Davis who appears to be a “some downs” lineman. Or they could put the car in 5th and drive 140 across the Walt Whitman Bridge. That’s what Adonai Mitchell is here. If he hits, you have the best WR corp in the NFL, a trio of players who can do everything you need at that position group. And if that doesn’t work, they can always send Nick Sirianni over to the other side of the Whitman to pump gas at a Sunoco. 

  1. Arizona Cardinals (from Minnesota) select Jer’Zhan Newton (DT/Illinois)

Just Arizona accumulating more Day 1 starters. Newton is such a truly well-rounded interior lineman. He’s really good against the run and strong and quick enough to be an effective pass rusher. He’s a real steal this late in the first.

  1. Dallas Cowboys select Nate Wiggins (CB/Clemson)

You might look at the Dallas Cowboys and say “hey Daron Bland had all those interceptions returned for touchdown last year. The last thing they need is another cornerback. That guy is great!” and I would implore you to make a wager with me about Bland’s o/u INT number for 2024. This position group is not particularly good, counting stats aside and the absence of Dan Quinn could leave a big hole. Wiggins can play outside or in the slot and would be a pretty immediate upgrade over basically anyone on this roster outside of maybe Trevon Diggs. And even he’s pretty overrated.

  1. Green Bay Packers select Graham Barton (OL/Duke)

Barton is probably a guard at the NFL level and an elite one at that. I think teams are finally catching on that it’s actually worthwhile to take players who are elite at their positions and that it doesn’t matter if they’re an interior lineman or not. So that’s nice, because I’ve long been a believer that if you have a need and a player grades as a 7-10 year starter, you draft that player.

  1. Miami (from Tampa Bay) select Tyler Guyton (OT/Oklahoma)

Miami’s poor offensive line play has become a bit of a running gag. Guyton is in no way a sure-fire Day 1 starter. He is very inexperienced and had moments at the Senior Bowl that made me question whether he was a first round talent or even a football player at all. But they don’t teach 6’8” former D-1 H-back pretty much anywhere. Guyton was a RT for a left-handed QB in college and if you don’t see the parallel here…His game needs refinement but he’s uber-athletic and worth taking a chance on, especially when you’ve been as porous as the Dolphins have been. His upside is enormous and too good to pass up on here.

  1. Arizona Cardinals select Brian Thomas Jr. (WR/LSU)

You know, Marvin Harrison is really good. But you know what else is good? Drafting the best CB in the draft, a Day 1 interior line force, and getting the best of the second tier of WRs. Thomas is 6’3” and runs a 4.3. His game needs refinement, but for your third first round pick, you’d be hard-pressed to find a more worthwhile gamble than on this make-up succeeding in the NFL.

  1. Buffalo Bills select Xavier Legette (WR/South Carolina)

Here’s where I say “screw it, I’m taking my guy.” Buffalo traded Stefon Diggs which seems like probably addition by subtraction at this point in his career. Legette is such an exciting prospect. There’s some DK Metcalf in his build. In terms of contested-catchers, he’s close to Rome Odunze. He’s so physical, but also ran a sub 4.4 at the Combine. He’s much lower on most other boards, but we’ve reached the portion of the WR pool where you determine your WR need and you fill it accordingly. And Buffalo could use a guy like Legette more than a speedster like Xavier Worthy or a hands guy like Ladd McConkey.

  1. Detroit Lions select Darius Robinson (EDGE/Missouri)

In an effort to build the most intimidating, high-motor pass rush that the NFL has ever seen, we have Darius Robinson going to the Detroit Lions to join forces with Aidan Hutchison. Robinson isn’t in the mold of the modern NFL EDGE player. He’s more strength than speed certainly. But his strength absolutely plays. He moved around the line a bit in college but settled in nicely as a pass rusher last year, earning first team all-SEC honors.He’s in the right place for some excellent coaching. I love this fit.

  1. Baltimore Ravens select Kool-Aid McKinstry (CB/Alabama)

McKinstry is about as steady as they come at CB. He’s not going to draw a ton of DPIs. He’s not going to get badly burned by receivers. He’s kind of the perfect Baltimore Ravens guy. 

  1. San Francisco 49ers select Jackson Powers-Johnson (OL/Oregon)

JPJ is, shall we say, different. If you like your centers pulling, this guy makes Jason Kelce look like a sloth. Everything JPJ does is with the amplifier turned up to 12. Truly, if high motor guys are your thing, go watch some Oregon tape. He feels like a perfect fit on outside zone runs in the Shannahn offense. I could see him going as high as Miami at 21. He could also go as low as late in the 2nd round because really, what do I know? The one thing I do know if that I love watching Jackson Power-Johnson.

  1. TRADE (New Orleans sends 45 and a 2025 first to Kansas City for 32) 

New Orleans selects Michael Penix Jr. (QB/Washington)

Kansas City gets to probably still have their choice of WRs at 45 and they get an extra first next year. New Orleans gets to jump the gun on all the teams who missed out on QBs (Hi Denver!) Hi Giants!) trying to trade into the top of the 2nd round for Penix, Spencer Rattler, and Bo Nix. I could honestly go with any of the 3 QBs here and truthfully I think that Rattler is the best fit for New Orleans, especially if he’s going to sit for a year. You don’t need Michael Penix to sit for any amount of time behind Derek Carr. He’s got plenty of experience. But he is, to me, a hair better than Rattler or Nix, both of whom I really like as Round 2 guys and both of which I prefer to JJ McCarthy. 

And that’s it. No second round. No other guys I like (there are so many). Just a cool and breezy few thousand words. My annual proof-of-life. Thanks for checking it out.

2023 NFL Mock Draft

/ Jason / Leave a comment

It’s the most wonderful time of the year. School is winding down. The days are getting longer. I can ride my bike without dressing like a Himalayan spelunker. And I won’t have to read about prospects taking “Top 30” visits, a new item in the NFL Draft parlance that I hope doesn’t reappear in 2024 (not least of which because there are 32 teams in the NFL). 

I’ve been prepping in earnest for this post, truly the only consistent piece of Mid-Atlantic Bias content, since late January. I watched the Senior Bowl practices. I watched the entirety of the NFL Draft combine. I’ve read. I’ve listened. I’ve watched YouTube videos. And in the process, I’ve formed strong to medium-strong opinions about approximately 75 prospects who I’ll never meet, will have no impact on my life, nor will I have been paid to study. We’ve all got hobbies. 

If you’ve read this post before, you know the drill. If not, a simple refresher: I make each pick as though I’ve been named GM for a day for each NFL team picking in the first and second round. So it’s a mix of what I perceive to be each teams’ need, value for the selection, and who I think is the best player at each position. I lean heavily towards need over “best available” in most cases, which is why a few guys who I’d actually rate in the overall top 31 slip to round 2. Don’t worry, round 2 is just a list. Of note, Miami had their first round pick taken away as a result of their Tom Brady tampering.

1. Carolina Panthers (via Chicago) select CJ Stroud (QB/Ohio State)

Stroud is the surest thing at QB in this draft. This is not to blame Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen, but I think they’ve really warped peoples’ brains when it comes to the QB position. The knock I have seen on Stroud for months now is that he didn’t use his legs enough at Ohio State. Keep in mind, he was a 72% and 66% passer in the two years he started, playing with essentially an NFL all-pro team at wide receiver. It’s foolish to me that people are knocking Stroud for what he hasn’t shown, as though he’s not adaptable and as though he needed to run at Ohio State. His red flag, if you can call it that, is fixable, if needed. But not every QB needs to be Woody Dantzler. In the moments when Stroud did run, he looked plenty athletic.  Carolina needs a steady hand on Day 1 because they’re a division contender in an extremely weak NFC South. Stroud is the most accurate QB in this Draft at all three levels. He should step in seamlessly on Day 1 and be Carolina’s starter for at least 5 years (the length of a rookie contract). He’s not going to be Patrick Mahomes, but if you go around waiting for Patrick Mahomes, you end up with a lot of years of PJ Walker. 

2. Houston Texans select Bryce Young (QB/Alabama)

Young (and Stroud before him) should be considered the steady hands in this draft at the QB position (I’d also include Hendon Hooker albeit with a much lower ceiling than Stroud and Young). Houston is starved for steady leadership at QB. They thought they had it with Deshaun Watson until they absolutely didn’t. And I guess they had it in Matt Schaub, but he was more of the medium floor-type of QB. Young can be a really good QB at the pro level. I actually think he could be elite, but a lot of things would have to go right to get there.. Young wasn’t as statistically accurate as Stroud and isn’t as objectively accurate, but he also made more throws under pressure and to much lower quality  receivers in 2022. He moves really well in the pocket. His arm is strong enough. And he’s quick. The glaring red flag for Young is his height. And it’s bright, blood red.  He’s 5’10”. The list of 5’10” QBs to be Pro Bowl caliber QBs in the NFL is extremely short (PUNS). I love Young’s makeup. I love his toughness. The touch on his passes is beautiful. And he can move in the pocket better than anyone in this class. He’s also an easily marketable player. But I do have some reservations about taking him second. If he goes second, he’ll be in an offense that will scheme him well (the Kyle Shannahan system). That will be essential for him to reach his potential, because you can’t fix short. 

3. Arizona Cardinals stand outside of the NFL Draft approaching every single person like a ticket scalper, screaming “Number 3 overall pick! I got it! You want it!”

What an absolutely atrocious position to be in. Every single team knows Arizona is desperate to trade back here. Sure, they could draft Will Anderson Jr. and have a potential Day 1 Defensive Rookie of the Year and high-end 10 year NFL starter at EDGE. But, my god, this roster is empty and given the rumors of them trading DeAndre Hopkins, could become more barren. The worst thing that could have happened to Arizona was Chicago trading with Carolina so early because it eliminated one team from the possibility of moving up. Left are Indianapolis, who picks next and can’t be that eager to trade future capital to move up one spot, Las Vegas (7), but then they’re kind of undermining the Garoppolo signing if they draft a QB at 3 (gestures to Trey Lance), and Tennessee (11), but does Arizona want to move back that far? Same goes for Washington, Detroit’s second first rounder, and Tampa Bay.  I’ve never proposed a trade in a mock draft, but this is the closest I’ve come. If I was Indianpolis, I’d find out the price to move up one spot. I would not give up a future first. I’d also be hesitant to give up pick 35, knowing I wouldn’t have a pick between 3 and the mid-70s. I would trade my third rounder this year, a fifth, and a second next year. But, we don’t do trades, so…

Arizona selects Will Anderson Jr. (EDGE/Alabama)

There’s not a lot to say about Anderson. No nits to pick. He’s everything you want in a modern edge rusher. He’s a 3-down guy. He’s twitchy. He’s great in pursuit. He can defend the run. Day 1 starter. Maybe even Day 1 Pro Bowler. 

4. Indianapolis Colts select Anthony Richardson (QB/Florida)

I’ve been in love with this fit since the Combine when Anthony Richardson measured off-the-charts, but also looked mechanically fine throwing the football. No other QB has anywhere near this ceiling. And Shane Steichen is the perfect coach for Richardson’s skill set because of what he did in Philadelphia with Jalen Hurts who is nowhere near the absolute physical god that Richardson is. Don’t get me wrong, Richardson is nigiri raw. Picking him 4th goes against everything I think I’ve ever written about QBs. He was truly awful at times in college. But Indianapolis would be utterly insane to pass him up. The offense he ran at Florida was uncreative and the Gators really lacked for talented skill position player. Still, Richardson showed flashes and the flashes he showed at Florida cannot be taught. His open-field running ability can’t be taught. He’s Cam Newton’s running and Jeff George’s legendary arm merged into one being, which is, I think, Daunte Culpepper in his prime.  I cannot see a scenario where he starts Week 1 in 2023. Things would have either gone extremely well in training camp or horrifically bad. This isn’t a team that should be trying to win anything in 2023. There’s a lot of roster to build here. Best to let Gardner Minshew game-manage the bulk of the season and maybe hand over the reins to Richardson in Week 14 if he looks ready. But come 2024, I think Indy will be able to check off the most important box in roster construction, QB1. 

5. Seattle Seahawks (via Denver) select Tyree Wilson (EDGE/Texas Tech)

If you follow this stuff even half as closely as I do, you’ll notice the elephant in the room. It’s not the Seahawks taking the really unpolished but wildly talented Wilson at 5. It’s the Seahawks NOT taking Jalen Carter, the consensus best or second-best prospect, on the field, in this draft (with Anderson). I’ll get into those details when Carter gets drafted in a moment. For me, Wilson is a great pick for the Seahawks because he fills an absolute pressing need and because they have two first round draft picks. I always say, if you’ve got two firsts, take a big swing, especially if you were a playoff team the year prior. The need for an edge rusher isn’t apparent statistically, as Seattle took down the opposing QB 45 times in 2022, good for the top ⅓ in the NFL. The issue is more that Seattle struggled to get consistent pressure on the opposing QB. A lot of that has to do with the talent level on their line and on their edge. Uchenna Nwosu and Darrell Taylor led the team with 9 ½ sacks, but neither player really profiles as a star at the position. Both would be really nice depth players in fact. Wilson reminds me a good deal of last year’s first overall pick, Travon Walker. Technique-wise, he’s not going to wow anybody. His game is anything but refined. But he’s an electric player in pursuit. And he’s also an able tackler in the run game. He’s not strictly a third down pass rush specialist. His upside is enormous, his college production was great, and his measurables are ideal. And, as an added bonus, he didn’t leave a teammate for dead at the scene of an auto accident. 

6. Detroit Lions (via Los Angeles Rams) select Devon Witherspoon (CB/Illinois)

If Will Anderson isn’t on the board for Arizona at 3, I think Witherspoon should be the pick (in fact he was my 3rd overall pick prior to the Bears trading out of number 1). I think Detroit telegraphed what they’re going to do with this pick a little bit when they recently traded former top 5 pick Jeff Okudah to Atlanta for pennies on the dollar. Detroit needs a CB1. They’ve signed Emmanuel Mosley and Cam Sutton in free agency, both of whom are really good players, but not guys who you feel comfortable putting on Justin Jefferson without a lot of help. Witherspoon allowed a ridiculous 35% completion percentage on targets to his coverage in 2022. And as good as he is in the pass game, he brings a safety’s mentality to open-field tackling. Witherspoon does not shy away from contact like a lot of corners. If you’re running towards him, he is going to try to hurt you. And if you’re passing toward him, good luck.

7. Las Vegas Raiders select Jalen Carter (DI/Georgia)

If I can be glib for a moment, is there a better NFL team to draft an incredibly talented player with no regard for human life, especially while driving? Look, I usually shy away from the “character issue” things. I don’t care about a football player smoking weed. I can look past public intoxication in most instances. Petty shit is petty shit. And in most cases, marijuana possession and public intoxication arrests are racially influenced.  But what Jalen Carter did isn’t petty. It’s unique in a particularly heinous way. He pled no contest to reckless driving and street racing charges in an incident where he left the scene of an accident where his teammate died. I have an extremely hard time raving about a D-lineman’s versatility and pass pursuit when there’s a character flaw that big. Add to that the anonymous scout things about immaturity in general, which I usually don’t care about because it’s usually racially influenced, and I’m more than willing to let a potential all-pro talent slip. And really, if I’m any team other than Las Vegas, I might not even think all that talent is worth it. 

8. Atlanta Falcons select Nolan Smith (EDGE/Georgia)

Some would see this as a reach (if anybody actually “saw” this labor of love), but I think Smith is perfect in this scenario. The Falcons played 17 games last year. They sacked the opposing QB 21 times. Only the Chicago Bears (picking next) had fewer and that’s part of what makes this pick essential for Atlanta. First, 21 sacks in 17 games is statistically abysmal. The Bengals were the fourth worst team in terms of sacking the QB and they did it 30 times. Second, they should absolutely keep Smith from Chicago. Smith is very much a prospect, but he has such huge upside. This is a 238 pound EDGE who ran a sub 4.4 40-yard dash. And it’s not like he’s come out of nowhere. He was arguably the top high school recruit in his class. What’s working against him, I think, is that he was injured for Georgia’s 2022 title march with a torn pectoral. What others might  see as a reach, I see as value and need for Atlanta. And it makes the Bears’ decision much easier.

9. Chicago Bears (via Carolina) select Paris Johnson Jr. (OT/Ohio State)

When people talk about the NFL being a passing league, they’re usually talking about the QB position or the WR position, but key to the ability to pass is the ability to protect the passer. Chicago has not been able to do that and it has slowed Justin Fields’ development as a result, to the point that insane people have suggested they should have kept the first overall pick and drafted a new QB to play behind a five-man mesh strainer.. Johnson puts an end to that. There are a few potential offensive linemen who could go in this spot, but I lean Johnson because he is a surefire, day 1, left tackle. He has every measurement you could want in a left tackle prospect. And if, for whatever reason, LT doesn’t work out, he’s played inside at guard too (protecting Justin Fields). And could probably move to RT. Really, on an offensive line this bad, you’ll take Johnson at any position he’d like to play. . 

10. Philadelphia Eagles (via New Orleans) select Peter Skoronski (OL/Northwestern)

I’m listing Skornski as an offensive lineman rather than an offensive tackle not as a slight to him but a nod to his status as the ultimate flexible lineman in this draft. He played LT at Northwestern, but his body type (short-ish arms) and measurables lean more inside in the NFL. For Philadelphia, this is a pick for today but also the future. Their offensive line is aging, almost across the board. Skoronski is flexible enough to fill in anywhere in 2023 (he was a center in high school), and move to his best overall position in 2024 and beyond.

11. Tennessee Titans select Broderick Jones (OT/Georgia)

This is the offensive line portion of our proceedings. The Titans enter the 2023 NFL Draft with a lot of question marks. They likely would have wanted to see more (something?) from 2022 draftee Malik Willis. He was, however, extremely bad while spelling an injured Ryan Tannehill. This must leave the Titans believing QB is a need in their immediate future, as Tannehill is set to turn 35 and carries an insignificant dead cap hit if and when Tennessee chooses to move on from him after 2023. In this immediate spot, Will Levis is on the board. And we’ll have a lot more on him later (needless to say I am not a big fan). Tennessee could trade up, but this is a roster with a lot of age and a lot of needs. Moving draft capital to take a big swing on Anthony Richardson feels a little too daring. So here’s Tennessee taking Jones, a prototypically sized but exceptionally athletic left tackle. He should be a Week 1 starter on the blind side of Tannehill. 

12. Houston Texans (via Cleveland) select Lukas Van Ness (EDGE/Iowa)

This is a scenario where I would usually get the team with two first round picks the best available player on the board, but cornerback isn’t a pressing need. We’ve still not seen a wide receiver off the board and I also thought about Notre Dame tight end Michael Mayer here, but this is team that really struggles to get to the opposing QB and in a class with a handful of really good first round EDGE guys and then a big fall-off, now feels like the right time to take Van Ness, an EDGE with some flexibility to his game. I think he’s a guy who can play on all 3 downs and be successful regardless of scheme, having played all over the D-line at Iowa. 

13. Green Bay Packers (via New York Jets) select Michael Mayer (TE/Notre Dame)

Okay, this is a far enough fall for a really good tight end prospect. Mayer is a perfect modern tight end. His catch radius is “everything, everywhere.” He can line up outside. He can line up inside. He does it all including block. He doesn’t have elite skills, but he’s a good-framed, sure-handed pass catcher, which is the perfect thing to provide a wildly inexperienced QB (Jordan Love) taking over for a first-ballot Hall of Famer.  

14. New England Patriots select Christian Gonzalez (CB/Oregon)

What do you get the team that needs everything??? How about a potential star at corner? This roster is more in line with the teams picking in the top 8 than it is here. Wide receiver is a big need, but my top rated receiver isn’t a good fit here. This would have been a good spot for Mayer, but he’s gone and the Patriots took a flier on Mike Gesicki in free agency, hoping he wasn’t ruined by Mike McDaniel. Offensive line is an issue, but I’m really not high on any of the prospects here. So we move to secondary where there are plenty of live bodies but plenty of questions if any of them, aside from Kyle Dugger, are actually any good. Gonzalez is much closer to Devon Witherspoon than this slide would indicate. He’s a true CB1, with solid production on a terrible Colorado defense (before his transfer to the Ducks) and ideal measurements for the position. I could legitimately see Gonzalez go in the top 10 on Thursday.  Of course, given that and their history, get ready for New England to alert everyone to the existence of an overlooked long-snapper from an NAIA school. 

15. New York Jets (via Green Bay) Darnell Wright (OT/Tennessee)

Well, the Aaron Rodgers trade made this much more challenging. Before the trade happened, I had the Jets taking Christian Gonzalez, creating two separate islands where pass catchers would go to die (metaphorically!). Sliding down two spots leaves the Patriots with the choice between iffy O-line guys and a really good outside, man corner. Easy choice. So do the Jets want an iffy offensive line guy here knowing they’ve traded their second round pick to Green Bay and won’t have a choice of any of the third tier guys? Probably not. And so here I have the Jets taking a guy whose ceiling is solid RT with the 15th overall pick. I think if the question comes down to Wright vs. Anton Harrison of Oklahoma, who is a LT, in this situation I lean Wright. Mekhi Becton showed the briefest of glimmers before injury and/or apathy derailed his career. The Jets need a guy who can come in on day 1 without question marks and fill a role on the line, even if his ceiling isn’t as high. This team is in “win immediately” mode. To do that, sometimes you need to suck it up and hit a single rather than look for the homer that might lead to a strikeout.

16. Washington Commanders select Deonte Banks (CB/Maryland)

I’ve done 3 mock drafts for my own record-keeping and given Washington three different players. First, back in January, I mocked Devon Witherspoon here. In the next one, it was Brian Branch. And in the most recent one, two weeks ago, it was Michael Mayer. And now, here’s Banks who edges out tight end Dalton Kincaid, who I don’t think profiles well with what should be a fairly conservative offense under Jacoby Brissett (no that is not a typo and yes that is a knock on Sam Howell and yes that is a nod to the very underrated, extremely efficient Brissett). Banks gives the Commandos a true CB1 (from Baltimore, who attended the University of Maryland), whereas Branch’s role is more of a slot corner. Banks had probably the most impressive NFL Combine of any corner, running a 4.35 40. He’s long and extremely athletic and should be an early season starter for Washington who is extremely thin in terms of corner talent.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers select Anton Harrison (OT/Oklahoma)

On the other end of the spectrum from Washington, I mocked Joey Porter Jr. to Pittsburgh in every single pre-post mock, but my word, this team needs to take a swing at building some kind of offensive line, which they absolutely did not do in free agency. I’m not even particularly high on Harrison, as previously mentioned, but he’s the best true left tackle prospect left and the Steelers really need live bodies who can protect Kenny Pickett. Pittsburgh is not in anywhere near a “win now” mode. They can take their time with Harrison and hope he reaches his ceiling of “good LT.”  As of today, the only left tackle on the Steelers roster is 2021 4th round pick Dan Moore Jr. They have to build depth on the OL and stop ignoring perhaps the most important positional group in football. 

18. Detroit Lions select Kalijah Cancey (DT/Pittsburgh)

This is the ultimate home run swing for a team that is way ahead of schedule in terms of rebuild. With two first round picks, Detroit can afford to draft at a position of need (IDL) and do so with a prospect whose athletic traits defy everything we know about size. There are plenty of Aaron Donald parallels with Cancey. He’s really undersized for a true NT in a 3-4, but he’s perfect as an interior pass rusher in a 4-man front. Cancey ran a 4.67 40-yard dash at the Combine. And that explosivity shows on the tape. There will be questions about his effectiveness in the run game, but there are also questions about Aaron Donald’s effectiveness in the run game and they won’t matter when he’s a first-ballot hall of famer. I’m not saying Cancey is going to be that, but the traits are there for him to be a pro bowl-caliber pass-rushing  force up front for a team that is building a really imposing defense. 

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers select O’Cyrus Torrence (OT/Florida)

Here is the first spot where I *considered* Will Levis. Tampa is on track to enter training camp with Kyle Trask and Baker Mayfield battling it out for their starting QB job, which is not exactly inspiring. My thinking with this selection is that the Bucs should focus on shoring up an aged, declining offensive line with a really great interior prospect. Yes, it’s boring. But roster-building should sometimes be boring. Torrence was a force at the Senior Bowl practices. Honestly, I could have just watched him overpower rushers in practice drills on an infinite loop. Guards are extremely undervalued in my opinion and this notion that they’re not worth first round picks is extremely wrong. Torrence is extremely big and extremely physical. Rather than using this pick on a QB who I think has a very limited ceiling, Tampa can fill other needs in the hopes of landing a real QB prospect in the 2024 Draft. 

20. Seattle Seahawks select Jaxson Smith-Njigba (WR/Ohio State)

Okay, I’ll stop being cute and we’ll have a wide receiver get drafted. JSN is a great fit for Seattle who could really use a reliable slot guy to pair with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. In real life, I don’t necessarily think the first WR goes at pick 20, but the position is extremely deep this year, albeit with more role players than true stars. In other words, there are a lot of Tobias Harrises and no Joel Embiids. Teams are going to draft for specific need at wideout because the game-changing upside is really not there with many prospects, outside of Quentin Johnson, who is a true outside receiver, just one who doesn’t actually catch the football well. JSN is a great route-runner with sure hands. He’s not going to wow anybody and is in fact, not my favorite receiver in this Draft. But in terms of fit, he’s great here.

21. Los Angeles Chargers select Bijan Robinson (RB/Texas)

Yes, you can use a first round pick on a running back. Yes, you should only do it when it’s a generational type prospect. Yes, Robinson very well might be that. He has every single tool in his bag. Maybe you’d like him to be a better pass blocker, but also maybe you can find something bad to say about Zendaya. The Chargers are not without need. They lack speed on offense and I’ve consistently mocked Zay Flowers to them, but I’ve also consistently mocked Bijan earlier than this. With the likelihood that the Chargers move on from Austin Ekeler, I think it’s very wise to get 5 years of relatively inexpensive control over a 3-down, integral part of your offense. As I said above, the wide receiver group at this Draft is very deep with role players. The Chargers can find speed later on. For now, you draft the guy who scouts say is a better Saquon Barkley (who was drafted 2nd overall in 2018).

22. Baltimore Ravens select Joey Porter Jr. (CB/Penn State)

I am very much here for my own self-created story of the Ravens drafting the son of a Steelers… (what’s a step below “great,” “icon,” and “legend”?). Porter is a work in progress but could develop into a pro bowler at the position. He’s a really big corner who will win battles at the point of attack. In zone coverage he could be a liability. But one-on-one, he’s going to out-physical a lot of NFL receivers. I’m taking him here because the Ravens really need to be better in pass defense and the rotating cast of aged characters in the secondary just isn’t a sustainable long-term plan for success. Nor is alienating your former MVP quarterback, but hey, what do I know? 

23. Minnesota Vikings select Brian Branch (CB/Alabama)

Corner has been a need for the Vikings since football was invented in 1973 by John C. Football. They drafted Andrew Booth Jr. in the 2nd round last year and he was really up and down, just without the ups. He played in just 6 games, made 12 total tackles and defended 0 passes. They added Byron Murphy in free agency. He defended four passes (0 INTs) last year. Then there’s Akayleb Evans. He also had 0 INT last year. And then there’s JoeJuan Williams who they signed from the Patriots who, you guessed it, had 0 INT last year. So productivity is a real problem for Minnesota. Enter Brian Branch who profiles more as a nickel back than a true outside corner, but my word, the Vikings should just take anybody who can cover an opposing receiver. 

24. Jacksonville Jaguars select Myles Murphy (EDGE/Clemson)

Perhaps drafting a very high-upside, but very risky EDGE in the first round in two consecutive drafts isn’t the best way to do player personnel, but Jacksonville is in a pretty good place with their roster. I think if Murphy is off the board, and nearly all of the WRs are available, they should look in that direction. But I don’t want to pass up on Murphy’s upside especially while this roster is in good shape and their division is in shambles. The idea of being able to line up Travon Walker on one end and Myles Murphy on the other is silly stuff. There’s so much speed with Walker and there’s so much potential for physicality with the long-limbed Murphy, who himself doesn’t lack for speed. 

25. New York Giants select Quentin Johnson (WR/TCU)

I mentioned Johnson earlier. He’s the only true outside receiver at the top of the prospect class (Cedric Tillman of Tennessee is probably a tick below). Johnson has a lot of bad. His catching technique needs real refinement, he’s really slow at the point of attack, and he has no real route-running understanding. But every tool is there with coaching and time to see him develop into a true, number 1 receiver. I don’t think any of his problems are not fixable. It’s his catching technique (he’s a chest catcher rather than someone who can high-point) that is the biggest question mark. I think that’s extremely fixable. New York fans and the media will just need to be patient with him (ROTFL). Truly though, there’s no one else in this class at WR who checks the physical and speed boxes together like Johnson. He’s a work in progress but for a team without a real downfield threat, he could be a real weapon early on if the Giants just have him run five go-routes per game. 

26. Dallas Cowboys select Dalton Kincaid (TE/Utah)

Dallas needs pass-catching options outside of CeeDee Lamb. They brought in Brandin Cooks who is somehow still a productive receiver in the NFL, but Kincaid gives them a really different look. Think Jason Witten, if he was way more athletic but couldn’t block. Okay, that’s a very bad analogy. Kincaid is a finesse tight end. He’s not going to stay in as a sixth lineman and run block. He’s a guy who you can line up as the world’s biggest slot receiver and give you game-changing productivity. Dallas let Dalton Schultz walk, so why not bring in an even better Dalton at the same position? 

27. Buffalo Bills select Zay Flowers (WR/Boston College)

Flowers is my favorite of the receivers in this class, but again, this WR class is so specialized that I didn’t think he was a great fit until here. Buffalo is fine on the outside with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. And they’re good enough at TE with Dawson Knox. What they lack is an explosive pass-catcher from the slot and I don’t think anyone in this class is as good at that as Flowers. He is quite undersized but shockingly physical given that. And his footwork is dazzling. His routes are sharp and his speed is impressive. I loved watching him at the Combine and I think he’ll add a really fun element to Buffalo’s already dynamic offense. 

28. Cincinnati Bengals select Darnell Washington (TE/Georgia) 

It is at this point that I had my first “hmmm” moment. The Bengals immediate needs (offensive line, secondary) don’t match up well with this slot, given the prospects available. Cody Mauch (OT/North Dakota State) is a reach here, as he’s probably not a tackle in the NFL. As is Emmanuel Forbes (CB/Mississippi State) or Cam Smith (CB/South Carolina). So why not give a really good football team the most interesting prospect in this NFL Draft? Washington is a unicorn. He’s a 6’7”, 264 pound tight end who ran the 40-yard at 4.64 seconds. He run-blocks like his mother is the running back. Truly, he looks like the world’s most athletic offensive tackle. And he can catch! Catch at an elite level? He’s not there yet. Washington is not Dalton Kincaid. There’s not a lot of route running for him. He is however the ultimate target inside the five yard line, whether it be as a run blocker or as a pass catcher on simple stick routes. I love what he would add to this already potent offense. Cincinnati’s offense right now is a lot of finesse (and QB sacks). Washington adds a much-needed physicality. 

29. New Orleans Saints (via San Francisco via Denver) select Bryan Bresee (DT/Clemson)

The Saints list of needs is long and this is not the place to be when you have a lot of pressing needs and just acquired a “win-now” quarterback in Derek Carr. They could really use a Michael Thomas replacement, but I don’t feel confident that that’s Jordan Addison. I like Jalin Hyatt but he feels superfluous on this roster. I toyed with Cedric Tillman as a true downfield threat to pair with Chris Olave (kind of a DK Metcalf/Tyler Lockett situation). But then you look at the defensive line and it’s just not good. Cam Jordan was a very good defensive end, but he’s 33 and his production has dropped off a cliff. And he’s the best of the front 4. Bresee is a very risky prospect. On the one hand, he was the nation’s top high school recruit and was thought of at times as a top 5 NFL prospect. But a torn ACL ended his 2021 season and a kidney infection ended his 2022 season and his production as a whole was down both years from his freshman season. You’re taking a really big risk here on past upside. Honestly I don’t feel super confident that this works out for the Saints, but they’re in a really rough spot here. It would have been really good if they had a top 10 pick this season. Too bad they absurdly traded that (and a second rounder next year) to move up two spots last year before ultimately trading up again. The Saints pick again at 40 and should target a player like BJ Ojulari (a pass rusher) there. 

30. Philadelphia Eagles select Keion White (EDGE/Georgia Tech)

Brandon Graham is 35 years old and cannot keep doing this forever. Keion White has only been an EDGE, in earnest, for one season (he started his college career as a tight end before switching to pass rush after the 2020 season). In his one full season at EDGE he was extremely productive on an otherwise bad defense at Georgia Tech. This is a home run swing for Philadelphia who I mentioned earlier needed to get younger on their offensive line. Peter Skoronski was a safe pick there in my estimation. They also need to get younger on the defensive line (Fletcher Cox is 32). White can spend a year learning from Brandon Graham, spotting him on third downs here and there, and hopefully growing into his potential, which is that of an 8-10+ sack per season pass rusher.

31. Kansas City Chiefs select Jalin Hyatt (WR/Tennessee)

I mean, you’re just playing with house money if you’re Kansas City. If Hyatt hits, you’ve got a 6-foot speedster who can be a downfield threat or a catch-and-run menace. If he misses, you’re the Kansas City Chiefs. You have Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce and drafted so well last year that even after trading your all-world WR1, you still won the Super Bowl. The Chiefs receiving corps is a hodge-podge right now. You have Marquez Valdez-Scantling who is, in theory, an outside X guy but is extremely unreliable as a pass catcher. And then there’s Kadarius Toney who is more of a gadget guy. And they drafted Skyy Moore last year for whom the jury is still very much deliberating. Hyatt is not a gadget guy. He can be an every down receiver in the NFL with the ability for explosivity on every down. His route running will need to improve and the learning curve could be larger, given that he won’t be playing in Josh Heupel’s weirdo offense at Tennessee. But I like him more than the not-particularly athletic Jordan Addison or the very small Josh Downs. Combinations of size and speed like Hyatt’s are rare. When you’re as good as Kansas City, you can’t pass up that opportunity. 

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And now, a (lot of) word(s) on rocket-armed white QBs: 

If you follow *gestures* this stuff at all, you’ll notice that Will Levis isn’t drafted in my first round despite going as high as 2 in some mocks. That is not a mistake. During the Ole Miss/Kentucky game this year, the ESPN broadcast noted that Todd McShay had heard that NFL talent evaluators valued his “intangibles” more than Bryce Young and CJ Stroud. This anecdote infuriated me. First, “intangibles” is NFL talent evaluator code for “whiteness.” NFL talent evaluators valued how white Will Levis is, versus Bryce Young and CJ Stroud, who are not white. There is no objective universe where someone could watch Bryce Young and Will Levis and conclude that Levis possessed the superior intangibles. Does Levis have a stronger arm than Young? Absolutely. Is he bigger than Young? Objectively, yes. But intangibles? 

It’s an embarrassing bit of old school NFL bullshit that we should have long-since dismissed as pure, 100%, Grade A racial bias. It should never make an ESPN broadcast, especially when the QB with the so-called “superior intangibles” is losing 22-19 to Ole Miss, while completing just 18 passes and getting sacked three times to the tune of a 44.6 QBR. Levis was outplayed that day by Jaxson Dart, who is currently 2nd or 3rd on the Ole Miss QB depth chart after transfer portal season. Dart showed far more pocket presence in that game and a superior ability to improvise under pressure. Levis, in that game and throughout his college career, showed an almost impressive ability to let pockets collapse around him. He took far too many dumb hits and as a result, played hurt a lot. And yes, he was playing behind a terrible offensive line with mediocre, at-best, skill position players. But that’s even more reason to be quicker with decision-making. And it’s not like the NFL game slows down because your offensive line is better. For a guy that even I can see has processing issues, Levis is going to really struggle to get up to NFL speed. Hell, Levis is a guy who could not beat out Sean Clifford at Penn State. If you’ve ever watched Sean Clifford play QB, you’ll understand how ridiculous that is. 

Levis’ measurables are great. He’s 6’4” and very muscly, and can throw a football very far. But those aren’t intangibles. He’s also, generously, not a very accurate QB. His 2022 completion percentage of 65% belies what shows up on tape. Per PFF, nearly ¼ of all of Levis’ pass attempts were thrown on screens or checkdowns behind the line of scrimmage. This is a guy who put up a 17.0 QBR against VANDERBILT. 

I am not, in any way, ragging on Will Levis the human being. He has never harmed me or my loved ones. I’m simply making an argument against a very antiquated way of evaluating talent. He has largely difficult-to-fix mechanical and processing shortcomings. Is he worth a second round pick? 100%. In fact, I have him going fairly early in Round 2 (below). His size alone makes that a no-brainer. Also the salary commitment makes it a no-brainer. Would I draft him over Hendon Hooker? In most cases no, though as my Draft plays out, I do.  That decision was based entirely on what I was trying to get from my QB prospect. I think Hooker, if his knee is healed, could step into an NFL offense on Day 1 and game manage effectively. I don’t think Levis has that mental ability. He’s a gunslinger. And among gunslinging QBs, I think he’s more Ryan Leaf than Brett Favre or even Jay Cutler. 

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2nd Round presented without context or explanation

32. Pittsburgh (via Chicago) selects Drew Sanders (LB/Arkansas)

33. Houston selects Josh Downs (WR/North Carolina)

34. Arizona selects Emmanuel Forbes (CB/Mississippi State)

35. Indianapolis selects Dawand Jones (OT/Ohio State)

36. Los Angeles Rams select Mazi Smith (DT/Michigan)

37. Seattle (via Denver) selects John Michael Schmitz (C/Minnesota)

38. Las Vegas selects Cam Smith (CB/South Carolina)

39. Carolina selects Jordan Addison (WR/USC)

40. New Orleans selects BJ Ojulari (EDGE/LSU)

41. Tennessee selects Will Levis (QB/Kentucky)

42. Green Bay (via Cleveland) selects Will McDonald IV (EDGE/Iowa State)

43. New York Jets select Jack Campbell (LB/Iowa)

44. Atlanta Falcons select Jahmyr Gibbs (RB/Alabama)

45. Green Bay selects Siaki Ika (DT/Baylor)

46. New England selects Felix Anudike-Uzomah (EDGE/Kansas State)

47. Washington selects Hendon Hooker (QB/Tennessee)

48. Detroit selects Luke Musgrave (TE/Oregon State)

49. Pittsburgh selects Cody Mauch (OL/North Dakota State)

50. Tampa Bay selects Sam LaPorta (TE/Iowa)

51. Miami selects Matthew Bergeron (OT/Syracuse)

52. Seattle selects Steve Avila (G/TCU)

53. Chicago (via Baltimore) selects Tuli Tuipulotu (EDGE/USC)

54. Los Angeles Chargers select Tank Dell (WR/Houston)

55. Detroit (via Minnesota) selects Cedric Tillman (WR/Tennessee) 

56. Jacksonville selects Kelee Ringo (CB/Georgia)

57. New York Giants select Antonio Johnson (S/Texas A&M)

58. Dallas select Zach Charbonnet (RB/UCLA)

59. Buffalo selects DJ Turner (CB/Michigan)

60. Cincinnati select Keeanu Benton (DT/Wisconsin) 

61. Chicago (via San Francisco) selects Joe Tippmann (C/Wisconsin)

62. Philadelphia selects Luke Wypler (C/Ohio State)

63. Kansas City selects Blake Freeland (OT/BYU)

2022 NFL Mock Draft

/ Jason / Leave a comment
i have a passion for web design

(Jason note: I’m going to do a somewhat lengthy intro about how I’ve viewed the build-up to the Draft and my analysis of a few individual prospects, followed by the selections I would make if I was each of the 32 GMs). 

What an extremely weird draft process this has been. It reminds me of the 2013 NBA Draft when there was no consensus best player at the time (Hi Giannis!) and the team with the first pick talked themselves into a high-upside project who wound up burning out faster than a TikTok trend. He’s now playing professionally in Taiwan. For Travon Walker, I hope he fares better, even if I think his rapid ascension to most-likely first overall pick is completely asinine and evidence that this process is too long. 

We (the people who do this professionally and people like me who wish we did) get so enamored with the measurables. Make no mistake, Walker’s are off the charts. His Combine performance was the stuff of legend. His in-game performance, however, wasn’t. He showed flashes of immense pass-rushing skill, but didn’t produce the counting statistics you’d like to see from a college pass rusher.  

To give you an idea of Walker’s rise, I did two mock drafts prior to this published one. One was February 15. The other was March 7. In the first one, I didn’t slot Walker in the first round. The second mock which I did in the immediate aftermath of the Combine, I slotted him in at 10 and thought at the time that I was being far too generous. Then his name started popping up more and more. And now, today (April 25) as I write this intro, he’s the odds-on favorite to go first overall, despite playing no games from February 15-today. 

At the start of this process, I wasn’t enamored with Aidan Hutchinson, having watched him do absolutely nothing against an SEC offensive line in the CFP. Hutchinson’s measurables are great, save for his very short arms, which give him a severe disadvantage at the snap, as it limits his ability to get first contact. As I’ve listened to and read actual experts over the past two months, I’ve come to appreciate a little more of what Hutchinson is and what he could be.

All along, I’ve thought that Jacksonville was in an impossible situation. From what I can tell, the team has done a terrible job of ginning up interest in a trade for the first overall pick, which would be the ideal scenario for them. And perhaps the Travon Walker stuff is actually Jacksonville trying to create smoke to entice a team in the 3-10 range to move up to draft him.  However, everybody else in the Top 10 appears to be pretty comfortable with where they are. Detroit especially stands to get the player they wanted all along (we assume) in Hutchinson without having to give up anything for him. 

On the offensive line, there is no Orlando Pace in this draft, but Jacksonville would still be very smart to draft an offensive tackle with the first overall pick, rather than swing for the fences with Travon Walker. Their offensive line lacks depth to begin with. Add to that that their best lineman is Cam Robinson on the one-year franchise tag (Robinson has since signed a 3 year extension which I’ll discuss below with Jacksonville’s pick)  and it just makes sense to me that you’d want to build that depth to protect the investment in Trevor Lawrence. Really, what’s the point of drafting a potential franchise-altering QB if you’re only going to surround him with middle-round talent? The player I have going first overall is the most versatile lineman in this draft and someone who I’ve consistently mocked to Jacksonville. Ultimately, I think given what we know about Trent Baalke (Jacksonville’s GM), they’ll swing for the fences on Thursday and select Walker. 

Part of what makes this draft so weird is that the quarterback class is the worst in recent memory and maybe ever. The general consensus is that Malik Willis is the best prospect, given his tools. I just can’t see how a GM can take him early in the first round unless they have an ironclad and notarized agreement with ownership that they’ll get to stick around long enough to have the gamble maybe pay off. Willis will absolutely not be ready to start in Week 1. I’m not entirely sure that he’ll be able to start in Week 18 either. He has a long way to go as a quarterback who can complete passes at all three levels before he can succeed in the NFL. His decision making at Liberty (including attending Liberty) severely lapsed at times even against middling competition. There’s just an immense amount of washout potential in him. Meanwhile, the general consensus is that Pittsburgh’s Kenny Pickett is the safer pick and I might have agreed with that two months ago, but everything I’ve read about him indicates a guy who will absolutely wilt under defensive pressure. And let’s not forget that his hands are very tiny. Pickett has, in my mind, an Andy Dalton ceiling in the NFL. I don’t see how that’s worth a first round pick.

For me, the safest QB in the draft is Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder, a four year starter who improved every year, has sneaky mobility, and is an accurate passer, albeit without the arm strength of Willis. Ridder isn’t the kind of high-upside QB that you’d take in the top 10, but I think in the late teens, an already good team is going to draft a QB who will be a stable signal caller for 10+ years. Think Derek Carr or Tony Romo in terms of numbers.  Meanwhile, I think the career ceiling for Willis could be 2021 Josh Allen and the floor could be 2018 Josh Allen. Is it worth committing yourself to Willis for 3-4 years or smarter to fill a positional need and wait for better QB classes in 2023 and 2024?

Okay, on to the picks. Where relevant, I’ll include who I think the team will actually select, because obviously I differ a bit from the likely reality.

  1. Jacksonville Jaguars select Evan Neal (OT/Alabama)

As noted, I think this will be Travon Walker. I personally love Neal. He has every box checked for an offensive lineman. Size. Speed. Strength. Positional flexibility. This has been my selection for the Jags since they locked up the first overall pick. This morning’s news that they’ve signed Cam Robinson to a 3 year/$54 million extension throws a bit of a wrench into the selection. I thought about moving Hutchinson up here, which would lead to a ripple effect that would see Detroit probably take Travon Walker, Houston still take Ekwonu who is a better scheme fit and Neal fall to the Giants at 5. The reason why I’m sticking with Neal is because in my mind’s eye, he’s the best, most day-one ready prospect in this Draft. First overall is rich for a player who will likely play Guard, but it’s important to note that Robinson getting the franchise tag is not indicative of his being a franchise player. PFF (Pro Football Focus) ranked him in the bottom half of all tackles in the NFL last season. He’s also played 16 games in a season just once. I still don’t think pass rush is more of a need for Jacksonville than pass protection. They’ll also have the first pick in every other round, allowing them to survey the landscape and make the most informed decision. I go with the surest thing here, regardless of Robinson’s extension.

  1. Detroit Lions select Aidan Hutchinson (EDGE/Michigan)

This is the ideal scenario for the Lions. They need a pass rusher and will draft one here probably regardless of what Jacksonville does. All indications are that the Michigan guy is their guy. If he goes first overall, I’d imagine Detroit takes Walker over Kayvon Thibodeaux..

  1. Houston Texans select Ikem Ekwonu (OT/NC State)

Is this too high to draft a guy whose biggest strength is his run blocking? Maybe. Are the Houston Texans in dire need of players who can do anything well? Yes. Having a run blocking dynamo like Ekwonu I think takes some pressure off of Davis Mills. I’d look for Houston to use their early second round pick on Iowa State running back Breece Hall to really give Mills a chance to succeed. 

  1. New York Jets select Derek Stingley Jr. (CB/LSU)

The cornerback pool has two absolute 1a guys in Stingley and Sauce Gardner. Sauce was the consistent performer who, when he played high quality WRs out of conference, didn’t lose a step. Stingley on the other hand hasn’t been great or healthy since 2019, but it’s very, very hard to overlook how dominant he was in 2019. If he’s recovered from his foot fracture, his upside is too great to let him slip. He has generational ability.  I think the Jets take one of Stingley or Sauce here and honestly neither pick would be wrong. 

  1. New York Giants select Travon Walker (EDGE/Georgia)

No, I don’t think Walker slips to 5 on Thursday. If he does, given that the Giants pick again at 7, this feels like the right place to take a big home run swing, a thing I think teams with multiple firsts should always try to do (it’s what I have the Jets doing at 4). The Giants need help everywhere on defense. Knowing that the team drafting after them took a corner in round 1 last year allows them to leave Sauce available and just hope nobody trades up to 6 for him. 

  1. Carolina Panthers select Charles Cross (OT/Mississippi State)

I think Carolina will draft Malik Willis here, which would be utterly insane. I go with the somewhat safer bet and take the LT who shined against the Alabama defense in 2021 in a pass heavy offense without a lot of talent around him.

  1. New York Giants (from Chicago) select Sauce Gardner (CB/Cincinnati)

See, no one traded up for Sauce…

  1. Atlanta Falcons select Trent McDuffie (CB/Washington)

Here’s my first “reach.” I think any of the next four guys are probably “better” than McDuffie, but the Falcons defense just absolutely stinks. And it especially stinks in the secondary. This is a team that’s absolutely going to be in contention for Bryce Young next year (the presumptive first overall pick in the 2023 Draft). So this is a franchise-building pick rather than some big swing at something they don’t need to swing it. If they draft a QB here, they’re insane. 

  1. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver) select Kayvon Thibodeaux (EDGE/Oregon)

Speaking of teams that should be playing for the first overall pick next year…Seattle got this pick for Russell Wilson and will enter the 2022 season with Drew Lock as their quarterback, which is as close to waving a white flag as a team could get. Thibodeaux in this spot is a must-get for a team that has had trouble getting to the quarterback for years. Like Atlanta, this is absolutely not a place for them to draft a QB. I could also see Kyle Hamilton going here.

  1. New York Jets (from Seattle) select Jameson Williams (WR/Alabama)

This pick came down to Kyle Hamilton and Jameson Williams. I went with Williams because despite his ACL tear in January, I think he’s the best receiver in this class and the only true game-changer in the group. The Jets have done a nice job of building up their receiving corp, but Williams brings something altogether different. Much like Jacksonville with Trevor Lawrence, the Jets need to give Zach Wilson every chance to succeed or, conversely, show that he can’t succeed so that they can move on from him quicker than they did from Sam Darnold. These two picks are risky for the Jets, but if only one hits, they’ll have an All-Pro. If both hit, that’s a franchise-changer.

  1. Washington (sigh) Commanders select Kyle Hamilton (S/Notre Dame)

The Football Commanders get, for my money, the best pure football player in this draft. I’m deeply enamored with defensive guys who can play at multiple levels (see: Simmons, Isaiah). Hamilton is one of those guys. He’s huge for a safety, but can hold his own as an inside corner and can cover the middle of the field like a linebacker. For a fanbase that remains as deeply enamored with Sean Taylor as one could be, Hamilton would represent the best secondary player this franchise has seen since Taylor. 

  1. Minnesota Vikings select Jermaine Johnson II (EDGE/Florida State)

If you’re noticing a bit of a trend in the modern NFL it’s that you cannot have enough bodies who can get to the opposing quarterback. For now, this is a league fixated on the pass. The only ways to counter that are with pressure and great corners. All three corners who I believe will be great are gone and drafted here, leaving Minnesota with the best pass rushing option. Johnson was great at the Senior Bowl and probably the lone bright spot on a horrific Florida State team in 2021. 

  1. Houston Texans (from Cleveland) select Drake London (WR/USC)

After Jameson Williams, the receiving pool becomes a real grab bag. London is by far the biggest and most physical of the bunch and was producing historic numbers in 2021 before an injury ended his season. The trend in the modern NFL appears to be towards smaller, quicker wideouts, but there’s certainly still room for guys like London (Michael Thomas-like) who can control the short and intermediate passing game with their size. The Texans seem to really like Davis Mills. If they do like him, they’ll get him a really talented security blanket to throw to 14 times per game.

  1. Baltimore Ravens select Jordan Davis (NT/Georgia)

If at this time on Thursday, the Ravens have their choice of Georgia’s two standout interior defensive linemen, they’ll be ecstatic. I give the edge (not to be confused with EDGE) to Jordan Davis (who would never be confused for an EDGE). Davis is the kind of player I used to make in Madden. 6’6”. 341 LBS. Runs a 40-yard dash in 4.78 seconds and has 34” arms. Now, it’s extremely unlikely that the Ravens will line Davis up at wideout to use that speed, but the size and arm length will certainly play as a run-stuffing interior force. Haloti Ngata was a cornerstone at the nose tackle position in Baltimore and I envision Davis as that type of player.

  1. Philadelphia Eagles (from Miami) select Garrett Wilson (WR/Ohio State)

See special combined “analysis” below

  1. New Orleans Saints (from Indianapolis via Philly) select Chris Olave (WR/Ohio State)

These teams engaged in one of the weirdest trades of draft picks I can ever remember, shuffling late teens picks around, seemingly to give New Orleans an edge (not EDGE) over the Chargers…I guess? Anyway, Philly probably needs to go back to the well at wide receiver and see if they can finally get that position right. New Orleans needs skill position players desperately. This isn’t the pick where a QB would come in to play, as the Chargers seem pretty set there for the next 15 years and you don’t make the trade they did with Philly without the assurance that your target is safe. In terms of analyzing these two receivers, they’re both kind of the same to me. Similar build. Olave is more of a deep threat with open field speed. Wilson is more of a possession based receiver. I think Wilson is the more steady choice and Philly needs steady at wideout.

  1. Los Angeles Chargers select Devonte Wyatt (DT/Georgia)

There’s a lot of debate about which interior lineman from UGA is better between Wyatt and Davis. I think they’re both really good and Baltimore and LAC would probably be happy to swap them here. The Chargers run defense was awful in 2021 and they’ve made moves to upgrade, but depth is key.

  1. Philadelphia Eagles (from New Orleans) select Nakobe Dean (LB/Georgia)

I love Nakobe Dean because every single time you watch him. he’s making plays. He’s so quick to react to running backs slipping out of the backfield and so quick in his reads of QBs. Maybe he’s not someone’s perfect ideal sized middle linebacker. Whatever. He’s a game-wrecker. I’d have to imagine that given their predilection for athletes who give it on every play, Dean will be a home run in Philly. 

  1. New Orleans Saints (from Philadelphia) select Desmond Ridder (QB/Cincinnati)

Wanna get nuts? Let’s get nuts! Ridder is not going to get drafted 19th overall. But this is where I would take him for all the reasons mentioned in my intro. I just like Ridder better than Willis as an NFL prospect. And I know I’m contradicting my rule about multi-pick teams taking home run swings in leaving Willis on the board. If this is exactly how the Draft plays out on Thursday, I wouldn’t lose my mind over the Saints drafting Willis here and having him…learn (???) from Jameis Winston.

  1. Pittsburgh Steelers select Trevor Penning (OT/Northern Iowa)

Penning is a risky pick, given his FCS background. His Senior Bowl was inconsistent with the most common refrain being that he looked “nasty.” That’s well and good in the FCS and at the Senior Bowl, but there’s no guarantee that nastiness translates to the NFL where talent matters more. However, I look at the Pittsburgh team and think it’s impossible to draft a QB here given how bad their offensive line depth is. I mean, they literally built an offense around Ben Roethlisberger throwing the ball in under 2 seconds because he was so immobile and the line was so leaky. You have to take a chance here on a talented guy with great measurables and hope he’s better than whatever they had last season.

  1. New England Patriots select George Karalaftis (EDGE/Purdue)

The production was not entirely there for Karlaftis during his three seasons as a starter, but there’s a lot of upside here. Karlaftis will be 21 years old during the entirety of the 2022 season. He’s young. He’s also extremely talented, even if that talent didn’t always flash in college. His 2021 season didn’t see him rack up the sack numbers, but he hurried the QB an average of 3 times per game. In terms of need for the Patriots, pass rushing is fairly high on the list, right below “a head coach who smiles more.” 

  1. Green Bay Packers (from Las Vegas) select Tyler Linderbaum (C/Iowa)

To give you an idea of how good Linderbaum is viewed, in 2020 he was the highest graded center in the country, ahead of Creed Humphrey, who would get drafted in the 2nd round of the 2021 Draft by the Chiefs, start all 17 games, and be PFF’s top rated center in the NFL. I think there’s an argument to be made that if you can take a generational talent at their position, regardless of that position (outside of punter, probably) you do it. You especially do it when you lack consistency on the offensive line and that prospect is a center. And you super especially do it when you’re a cold weather team and that player is an interior offensive lineman from Iowa. Green Bay has another pick to address their glaring holes at wide receiver.

  1. Arizona Cardinals select Zion Johnson (G/Boston College)

Can you tell that this is a lineman-heavy first round? Johnson is probably the most underrated prospect so far, due in large part to him playing at BC. Throughout the pre-draft process, Johnson has tested well and moved up draft boards, solidifying himself as the best pure guard in 2021. Arizona made the playoffs last year, though you’d be forgiven if you forgot that. The roster is quite a mess for a playoff team and the franchise quarterback may or may not have indicated that he wants to be traded. Perhaps he’d be happier with a more consistent O-line. 

  1. Dallas Cowboys select Devin Lloyd (LB/Utah)

Do not be surprised if Dallas uses this pick on one of the electric wideouts who are still available here (they’d also love Jameson Williams I’m sure but I doubt that happens). Dallas spent the offseason seemingly increasing their list of needs from defensive tackle and offensive line depth to completely new offensive linemen, a few wide receivers, pass rushing, and competent middle linebacker. Devin Lloyd fills that last role well. Lloyd is great in coverage and against the run. Filling this hole for Dallas would also see Micah Parsons be able to transition to an even-more havoc-wreaking pass rushing monster. 

  1. Buffalo Bills select Skyy Moore (WR/Western Michigan)

If I told you there was a MAC wide receiver named Skyy Moore, the person you’d envision would be exactly Skyy Moore. “Stupid quickness” describes Moore in the open field. Despite all the receivers above him in this draft, he was the highest rated player at the position in FBS. 94 catches for nearly 1300 yards. As far as fit with Buffalo, they lost Cole Beasley this offseason and could replace him with an extremely more dynamic version of him.

  1. Tennessee Titans select David Ojabo (EDGE/Michigan)

What do you do when your immediate needs are relatively superficial and you can fill those later in the Draft? You go and draft the previously consensus first round pick who is slipping because of a freak injury. Ojabo rushed the QB opposite Aidan Hutchinson. There’s some question as to whether his statistical spike was a result of Hutch getting all of the attention. That’s probably fair. But also, Ojabo is super athletic and raw and still learning the position. I’ve mentioned home run swings before. This is it. 

  1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers select Kenyon Green (G/Texas A&M)

Ali Marpet abruptly retired and played the guard position. Kenyon Green is a guard who can also play either tackle, as he showed in college. Tampa’s needs are a bit superficial too (meaning “they could use some <blank> depth” rather than “they have an immediate and pressing need for a <blank>.) Interior line is a higher priority need at the moment given the abrupt un-retiring of Tom Brady.

  1. Green Bay Packers select Treylon Burks (WR/Arkansas)

Okay, so, it happened. Green Bay ended the streak and drafted a WR in the first round for the first time in the Aaron Rodgers era. If the Packers are to somehow keep that streak alive, you would have to call it self-parody, because if Burks is on the board, you draft him. Skyy Moore being drafted ahead of Burks here is more about what the Bills needed than an indictment of Burks, who is just a different guy. Treylon is a classic, big, downfield receiving threat. And right now, Green Bay doesn’t have any receiving that could be deemed a threat. 

  1. Kansas City Chiefs (from San Francisco via Miami) select Andrew Booth Jr. (CB/Clemson)
  1. Kansas City Chiefs select Jahan Dotson (WR/Penn State)

Rarer than the supermoon, it’s the back-to-back first round picks from one team. Kansas City’s two biggest offseason losses were a big, physical corner in Charvarius Ward and an undersized speedster receiver with big play ability in Tyreek Hill. Check and check. And no, I don’t think Jahan Dotson just automatically becomes Tyreek Hill. His open field speed is once-in-a-generation. But a slightly lesser Tyreek Hill is still a really good NFL receiver.

  1. Cincinnati Bengals select Jalen Pitre (Secondary/Baylor)

When I got to Cincinnati I realized this particular mock draft would be the nightmare scenario for them, because I’m sure they’d love some more offensive line depth or more pass rushing prowess. Instead we move to the next biggest need which is secondary. I lean Pitre over Kaiir Elam, Roger McCreary, and Kyler Gordon because of his positional flexibility and pedigree of success (2021 Big XII Player of the Year). He is probably a safety in the NFL, but I also think Cincy could get away with him as a nickelback when needed..

  1. Detroit Lions (from LA Rams) select Malik Willis (QB/Liberty)

Home run? Time will tell. All I know is that Jared Goff is nobody’s answer at QB. Let him play out the final year of significant dead cap damage (from $41 million in 2022 to $10 million in ‘23) while focusing all of the development on Willis. Hell, give him all of the starter reps in practice and then make Goff go out there on Sundays. Go 2-15, waive Goff at the first chance and continue to build around Penei Sewell, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Aidan Hutchinson and Malik Willis (if this scenario plays out) with a high 2023 pick. And don’t completely give up on Jeff Okudah, 2020’s top 3 pick. Injury has cost him the early part of his career, but you’d have to imagine the talent isn’t gone. The Lions have some really good young centerpieces and with Aaron Rodgers potentially quitting mid-season during a Pat McAfee podcast, the NFC North could be up for grabs sooner rather than later. The Willis gamble is worth taking at this late stage of the first round, because as I see it, Detroit is the next team up in this division given their great drafting last year.

***

So what else? Well, at QB we’re left with Kenny Pickett, Matt Corral, and Sam Howell. Highest ceiling is probably Howell even though he’s a mechanical nightmare. Then I’d take Pickett to be my Andy Dalton. And after that, Corral, who I think probably belongs closer to the next rung of QBs with Carson Strong and Bailey Zappe. 

At running back, if this was 2005, Breece Hall would be a top 10 pick. He can catch the ball out of the backfield and run between the tackles with great skill. That kind of versatility is vital in today’s NFL. 

The  wideout to note is John Metchie III who was a likely first rounder until he tore his ACL in the SEC Championship game. He won’t be recovered in time to make a Week 1 impact, but the talent is worth an early second round investment certainly, especially for a team like Seattle who have two second round picks and a need to rebuild. 

If you’re anything like me, I am deeply sorry. But also, you probably enjoy watching anomalies. Players like Jordan Davis who are literally twice the size of another person who run at Olympic sprinter speeds. It’s particularly jaw-dropping in professional wrestling to see the big 7’0” “GIANT!” execute a top rope moonsault. Then there’s Minnesota’s Daniel Faalele, who is 6’8” and just a hint under 385 lbs. I don’t know if Daniel can do moonsaults. And even though he didn’t run the 40 at the Combine, I’m confident that Daniel cannot run a sub-5.00 40-yard dash. But I do know that Daniel is really big. Can a player that big in height and weight succeed (he’s 40 lbs heavier than Jonathan Ogden) as a left tackle? I’ll be waiting to find out. 

On the defensive side of the ball, I fully expect there to be a League-wide infatuation with Georgia’s defensive players and could see two more (Safety Lewis Cine and LB Quay Walker) sneaking into the end of the first round. Walker especially has really big potential to be a long-term fixture in the NFL. 

Enjoy the Draft. I would like to do this professionally.

2021 NFL Mock Draft

/ Jason / Leave a comment

What follows is my mock draft. It’s different from most mock drafts because nobody talks to me, I’ll probably not proofread it, and I don’t plan to promote it on social media.

Why should you continue reading? I follow the sport. I read a lot. I follow college football. I pay $20 a year for this domain name. If you’ve stumbled here through an errant Google or Bing search, I’m sorry. But maybe keep reading.

I write these posts for me, really. Sure, I’d like for someone to read this and think that I can write competently and know a thing or two about football. But more than anything, I like to have a place where I can look back on my thoughts a few years from now and say “Good job” or “Bad job.”

The mock draft below is not my attempt to go 32/32 (I’m bolding this for the people who don’t read the intro). I’m draft for each team as though I were their GM, operating with unilateral decision making powers. I’m drafting the players I think are best at each position based on what I saw in college and what I’ve read from a collection of draft sources. Let’s go.

1.Jacksonville Jaguars select Trevor Lawrence (QB/Clemson) I’m not going to be cute here. Lawrence is the best QB in this draft and probably the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck. He’s so good that the most common knock on him at this point is that maybe he doesn’t love football like a maniacal obsessive. I think that’s a fine thing. He’ll be a Day 1 starter and a really good one at that.

2. New York Jets select Justin Fields (QB/Ohio State) In real life, the Jets will take Zach Wilson. I’ll talk about him at some point in this first round (probably!). Of course, this pick didn’t need to be used on a QB. The Jets had Sam Darnold, who they just drafted third overall in 2018 (after giving up a haul of picks to move up to select him), but they traded him to Carolina earlier this month for table scraps in the form of draft picks. Fields to me is a much safer bet than Wilson. His ceiling is higher than I think he’s getting credit for and I wonder how much of the negative thinking around him is because of Ohio State’s failure to create good NFL QBs (and also racism). Fields is not Cardale Jones, JT Barrett, or Dwayne Haskins. Fields is deadly accurate in the pocket, can throw on the run, and has the size you want in a starting QB. There’s also a bunch of game tape against NFL-light defenses (Clemson twice, Alabama once, Big 10 opponents). Zach Wilson played Coastal Carolina last year and wasn’t very good.

3. San Francisco 49ers select Trey Lance (QB/North Dakota State) San Francisco traded up to this spot to, the world assumes, draft a quarterback. I think in a perfect world, they’d take one more run at it with Jimmy Garoppolo, but they must be either nervous about his medicals or just generally nervous about him medically. The other 21 starters are really good. Collectively probably a top 5 team in the NFL. Injuries ravaged them last year, including to Jimmy G. I would have stayed put at the 12 spot where there will be really good value. Here, I take Trey Lance who is a more accurate Josh Allen on paper. Lance is big, fast, and very accurate. He didn’t lose a game in college and didn’t throw an interception. He also didn’t play against FBS competition. But the attributes and attitude are great on Lance and teams have done well with North Dakota State quarterbacks in recent years (the Eagles don’t get to the Super Bowl without Carson Wentz). Can Lance start on Day 1 for a team that should have Super Bowl aspirations? That’s a good question and one that leaves me wondering why the 49ers traded into this spot.

4. Atlanta Falcons select Kyle Pitts (TE/Florida) Truthfully, the Jets should have kept Darnold and drafted Pitts. Likewise Miami should have stayed at 3 and drafted Pitts. Pitts is a unicorn. He’s a create-a-player in Madden. He can play outside as a receiver. He can play inside as a tight end. He can be physical over the middle. He can burn cornerbacks deep. Pitts should define the tight end position for the next generation and should be the ultimate gamechanger. Are there other needs for Atlanta? Certainly. Their defense is the pits (pun intended) or maybe it’s…for the birds (ha!). Atlanta could trade back into the teens to draft one of the cornerbacks, but they’d be passing up on the kind of talent that gets GMS fired for passing up on them.

5. Cincinnati Bengals select Penei Sewell (OT/Oregon) Last season ended for the Bengals when their franchise quarterback, who had spent the season being hammered behind a bad offensive line, tore his ACL and MCL. You don’t draft a franchise quarterback and throw him behind a bad offensive line just like you don’t buy a Bugatti and leave it unlocked in a Von’s parking lot with the keys in and the door wide open. Sewell, as a prospect, is a lot more than just insurance for Burrow. This isn’t meant to sell him short. But Cincy would be making a huge mistake if they drafted a skill position player here. Sewell should be a top-tier LT for the next decade. You cannot win in the NFL without players like Sewell.

6. Miami Dolphins select Ja’Marr Chase (WR/LSU) Chase sat out the 2020 “season” as did Sewell and others who you’ll find here. When we last saw Chase on the field, he was making then-Clemson CB AJ Terrell his son in the National Championship Game. Terrell went on to be a first round pick by the Falcons and was mostly fine in his rookie season. Chase has the potential to be a whole heck of a lot better than “fine.” Think Justin Jefferson in Minnesota. Chase isn’t a huge outside receiver. But he’s fast and plays physically for his size (6’0″). And then there’s that tape against AJ Terrell where it’s hard to understate just how much he outplayed Terrell. Miami should stick with Tua and surround him with as many high-end skill position players as possible. Outside of Pitts, it doesn’t get more high end than Ja’Marr Chase in this draft.

7. Detroit Lions select Zach Wilson (QB/BYU) Look, the Lions are a bad football team. Really bad. I don’t think there’s another team in the NFL who is further away from simply being a playoff team than Detroit. They made the weird offseason trade for Jared Goff, who is absolutely nothing more than a middling QB. They hired an absolute weirdo football robot (Dan Campbell) to be their head coach. And they lost their top receiver, Kenny Golladay, in free agency to the Giants. If I’m in this spot, I’m taking the best trade offer on the table and acquiring assets to begin a legitimate 3 year build. I’ve never proposed trades before in a mock and I’m not going to do one here (Denver moving up would make a lot of sense). The other elephant in the room here is that on draft night, Zach Wilson will not be here. As we’ve established, he’s getting drafted IRL by the Jets, which means that on draft night, Detroit should draft the best available quarterback here if they’re not moving back. As for Wilson, I’m not a believer in him as the second best QB in this class. I think he certainly has a high ceiling, but his floor is an Olympic diving pool. It really feels like Wilson through one pass at his pro day and earned himself millions of dollars. And if Zach Wilson is making cross body, 60 yard passes on the regular, I can’t really say his team will be winning games. I’m much more concerned with his accuracy in the short and medium field than if he can do circus tricks with a football (that, by the way, Justin Fields can also do). TLDR: Detroit is a mess and Wilson is either the answer (as a franchise quarterback) or the answer (in the form of the impetus to tear it all down and start from scratch).

8. Carolina Panthers select Devonta Smith (WR/Alabama) Carolina has Teddy Bridgewater (traded to Denver while this was in DRAFTS), PJ Walker, and Sam Darnold on their roster, so taking Mac Jones here would be superfluous. Darnold deserves a chance to play QB for a competent coach (Joe Brady is a decided upgrade over Adam Gase), so I’m taking the Heisman Trophy winner and pairing him with DJ Moore and Robby Anderson to give Darnold a really diverse receiving corps. Smith is a human Dyson vacuum in the slot or outside. Whether he can play on the outside in the NFL at his size (6’0″, 170 LBS) is the biggest question mark. He runs precise routes, he’s a team leader, he’s explosive at the line. He’s everything you want in a receiver. Except he weighs 170 LBS. Carolina has a window to compete with Matt Ryan aging and the Saints in transition. Starting over with a rookie QB just doesn’t feel the way to go here. Especially when you have a talented, young QB who has never had a real shot to be good.

9. Denver Broncos select Micah Parsons (LB/Penn State) If this scenario plays out and the only QB on the board is Mac Jones, Denver should hand in this card in roughly 2.5 seconds. Parsons is a perfect fit for head coach Vic Fangio’s defense, in that he’s an excellent and versatile linebacker. It’s rare to see an inside linebacker go this high in the modern NFL, but Parsons is worth the top 10 pick. He can cover the Travis Kelce’s of the world and tackle the Josh Jacobs’s too. You can build a really good defense around guys like Parsons. And when you play Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert 4 times per year, you better have a good defense.

10. Dallas Cowboys select Patrick Surtain II (CB/Alabama) I fall in love with big cover cornerbacks very very easily. And boy did I fall in love with Surtain II. Dallas’s pass defense was abysmal in 2020 and the jury is still out on Trevon Diggs, their second round CB selection in last year’s draft. Diggs’ former Alabama teammate is the prototypical outside man cover corner. He shut down half the field in college. That won’t be the case initially in the NFL. Teams will challenge rookie corners. But I think Surtain has the ball instincts to make teams regret that quickly. He won’t win DROY because the counting stats won’t be there, but the counting stats likely won’t be there because teams will avoid his side of the field.

11. New York Giants select Alijah Vera-Tucker (OL/USC) Whether the Giants want to use Vera-Tucker at Tackle or Guard is their choice. I’d start him at Guard. He’s versatile enough to play almost anywhere on the offensive line and the Giants have loooooong had trouble protecting the QB. The Giants are in an interesting spot here with the QB Jones still on the board (if other mocks are more accurate, it’ll likely be Fields that falls). Vera-Tucker is arguably a reach here depending on who you read. For me, this is a great spot for a versatile offensive lineman with a great motor. But the Giants would be wise to consider acquiring assets, moving down into the lower teens/early 20s (Chicago at 20 would make sense) and hoping that Vera-Tucker is there. And if he’s not, the Giants have a need for an edge rusher, an interior defensive lineman, and even Saquon Barkley insurance.

12. Philadelphia Eagles select Jaylen Waddle (WR/Alabama) Philly finds itself inching closer and closer to Detroit Lions territory with this pick. Last year, with Justin Jefferson on the board, the Eagles inexplicably drafted Jalen Reagor. Two years ago, they used a second round pick on JJ Arcega-Whiteside just a few slots after AJ Brown and a few before DK Metcalf. It’s time for Philly to stop being cute on draft day and take the best available player at a position of real need for them. Luckily for the Eagles, they have a bunch of draft picks this year to fill out a depleted roster. But if they’re going to find out if Jalen Hurts can be their QB long-term, he’ll need more than Reagor and JAW catching passes. Waddle played in just five games last year (only 4 of which he was healthy for) and averaged 20 yards per reception in each game. He is explosive and could find himself in the Pro Bowl solely as a return man in the NFL. He is much more than a specialist though. There really is no gap between Waddle and his Alabama teammate Devonta Smith and I could definitely see Waddle get drafted ahead of his smaller college teammate despite Smith’s collection of college hardware.

13. Los Angeles Chargers select Rashawn Slater (OT/Northwestern) With Waddle off the board, this has to come down to one of the two remaining high-level tackles or Jaycee Horn. Protecting Justin Herbert is imperative which makes this an easy decision. Slater was an absolute brick wall in terms of protecting the QB at Northwestern and would be a Day 1 starter on Herbert’s blind side. (A note on Herbert: I’ve been playing NFL draft guessing games for a long time and once in a while, I’m right, while sometimes I’m wrong. Never have I been more wrong than with Justin Herbert, who I didn’t think was worth a first round pick last year. Herbert showed incredible growth from his time at Oregon and looks to be a franchise cornerstone in Los Angeles. Mea culpa on that one.)

14. Minnesota Vikings select Christian Darrisaw (OT/Virginia Tech) Minnesota is another team, like Philly with about 18 holes to fill on their roster. The board as it played out here, very much fell in their favor. Vera-Tucker would also have been a great pick for them because of his versatility, as Minnesota has real needs on the interior of the offensive line too, but Darrisaw is too good and was too consistent at Virginia Tech to pass up here. He allowed zero sacks and only 5 quarterback hurries in his last season in Blacksburg. Equally good as a run blocker and a pass blocker, he makes perfect sense for the Vikings, who will also have a number of suitors at this point.

(SIDEBAR BREAK: I think it’s very likely that one of the five QBs takes a tumble on Thursday. Here it’s Mac Jones because I think he probably should take a tumble. New England is coming up and the experts seem to think they’ll swing a trade to move up and draft a QB. But there are a bunch of other teams that should also consider moving into the mid-teens if a QB is available (Pittsburgh, Washington, Chicago, maybe the Saints). And New England has never been shy about needlessly trading back and acquiring draft capital that they’ll waste on kickers and long snappers.)

15. New England Patriots select Mac Jones (QB/Alabama) The Patriots should be much, much better in 2021 than they were in 2020. They spent big in free agency and will get a number of 2020 opt-outs back. One area where they are decidedly not better is QB. Cam Newton was awful in the latter stretches of the season and should absolutely not be the Week 1 starter for any NFL team. New England didn’t pursue an upgrade which has to mean they’re targeting a QB, right? Jones is not the perfect NFL QB. He’s very accurate at all three levels, but was also throwing to two first rounders and handing off to maybe another. And he was playing behind an offensive line with at least three top 60 picks this year. That said, he’s not terribly dissimilar in makeup to Tom Brady. In fact, his arm is probably a little stronger. His relative immobility hurts, but would you rather have a QB that can make all the throws (Jones) or whatever it is that Cam Newton is now?

16. Arizona Cardinals select Jaycee Horn (CB/South Carolina) Patrick Peterson is gone, which at this juncture in his career isn’t the worst thing in the world for Arizona. If Horn falls, he should be the pick. He’s another big (6’1″) man-cover corner with experience playing at the highest level in college football. Look for this pick to lean defense for a franchise that will need to upgrade at all three levels to make a serious playoff run during Kyler Murray’s prime and while DeAndre Hopkins is still around.

17. Las Vegas Raiders select Trevon Moehrig (S/TCU) Vegas fits into the Minnesota/Philly spot of just needing players everywhere. The Raiders decided to essentially layoff their entire offensive line, so that would make sense here, but there’s no real value left on this board. I go with Moehrig who is a versatile safety that can play in the slot (in fact he took as many snaps there in 2020 as he did at safety) and is a sound tackler. Not a sexy “Raiders” pick but a really good football player on a team that needs a lot of those.

18. Miami Dolphins select Zaven Collins (OLB/Tulsa) Miami has 4 of the top fifty picks in this draft, so while some may see drafting Collins here as a reach, I see it as an investment opportunity. He’s an athletic freak at 6’5″. He can play at OLB as an edge rusher or as a coverage backer. Brian Flores is a great defensive coach who should be able to tap into Collins’ size and skill to make him a star, albeit an unconventional one given his size. Had Collins gone to a bigger school, given his measurables, I think you’re looking at a top 10 pick in this draft. He’s really good.

19. Washington Football Team select(s) Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB/Notre Dame) This is the perfect scenario for the WFT. Sure, the PERFECT scenario would be Trevor Lawrence inexplicably and impossibly falling to 19. Short of one of the 5 QBs being there (and I honestly don’t even think Mac Jones would be a great pick for them) though, this is the guy to target. Pass rush is not a problem for WFT. Pass coverage in the medium game is though and Owusu-Koramoah solves that problem on day one. He’s explosively quick for his position, something you can credit in part to his relative lack of size (2 inches shorter and 20+ LB lighter than Micah Parsons). QB is going to be an issue for the Football Team in 2021 and beyond. And they could certainly use a WR in this draft. But there is some depth at those positions, especially WR.

20. Chicago Bears select Greg Newsome II (CB/Northwestern) When in doubt, take the local kid? The Bears are in a no-win situation. There’s a fall-off in talent at about this point and they have a lot of needs. They drafted Jaylon Johnson last year and he showed competency as a cornerback. Corner isn’t the most pressing of needs for Chicago (that’s QB), but Newsome is the top player on my board and they could certainly stand to get better in the secondary. The front 6 or 7 should be just fine.

21. Indianapolis Colts select Elijah Moore (WR/Mississippi) …and they don’t even have to think about it very long. Moore is the prototypical slot WR, which I think 10 years ago might have sounded dismissive, but really, how often do teams not run a 3 WR set in the modern NFL. He’s blazingly fast with great hands. Think a richer man’s TY Hilton.

22. Tennessee Titans select Kadarius Toney (WR/Florida) It’s a run on 6’0″ and under SEC wideouts. Toney is so quick he makes Elijah Moore look like late career Wes Welker, who would simply catch the ball and fall down. There are less flashy wideouts, like Rashod Bateman, on the board here, but Toney would give the physical Titans offense a spark that would really make teams less inclined to load the box to stop Derrick Henry. With AJ Brown doing AJ Brown stuff on the outside and Toney doing what he can do (shredding apart the middle of the field), Tennessee would have one of the more dynamic offenses in the AFC.

23. New York Jets select Kwity Paye (Edge/Michigan) The Jets need guys who can get to the QB. Vinny Curry’s 3 total sacks in 2020 just ain’t cutting it. Pair the twitchy and technically sound Paye with Carl Lawson on the outside and, of course, you’ve got Quinnen Williams in the middle and all of a sudden, the Jets front 4 looks way better than it did in 2020.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers select Teven Jenkins (OL/Oklahoma State) I have Jenkins listed as an OL rather than an OT because the knock on him is that he has short arms, typically an indicator that a move to the inside is coming. For Pittsburgh that would be fine because their offensive line was atrocious in 2020 and they lost both of their tackles. Pittsburgh needs a QB and needs one soon. I’d look for them to move up in the second round (from 55) to take the best available QB to sit behind Roethlisberger for a year. This spot is just too early to take a Kellen Mond however.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars select Liam Eichenberg (OG/Notre Dame) Like Jenkins before him, Eichenberg is a short-armer. Otherwise, we’re looking at a guy who should be a sure-fire top 20 pick. As it stands, he might not get selected on Thursday, but whoever does draft him is going to get a versatile lineman who they can try at tackle, should the need be there. Jacksonville is better off with him at guard where he should excel. He registered just under a 90 grade from Pro Football Focus last season. He’s good and I’m not sure why there’s not more chatter about him.

26. Cleveland Browns select Christian Baramore (DT/Alabama) Baramore had an absolutely phenomenal CFP National Championship game. On a field that featured enough players to make their own first round, Baramore might have been the best player out there. The tape doesn’t all look like that for him though, which is why he falls to the Browns who are desperate for an interior force on their defensive line. If they get the guy who ran roughshod over Ohio State’s offensive line, they’ll have the steal of the draft. If they get the balance of good tape-bad tape, they’re still upgrading.

27. Baltimore Ravens select Jayson Oweh (Edge/Penn State) Derek Wolfe is a fine player, but at this stage in his career, he’s just not an every down pass rusher. Enter Oweh, whose measurables (size/speed) are off the charts and whose game tape is…fine. Baltimore has a way of getting the best out of their guys and I think this is a perfect landing spot for an uber talented guy who just didn’t put it all together in college.

28. New Orleans Saints select Caleb Farley (CB/Virginia Tech) Do this little exercise six months ago and Farley isn’t escaping the top 15. His medicals are a concern. Sciatica. Herniated discs. Multiple surgeries. He sat out the 2020 season so there’s no fresh tape on him. This is the riskiest pick in the first round. If Farley is healthy enough to go, the Saints are getting the best corner outside of Surtain, at a position of need. If he’s not, a team that has a lot of nagging little holes will have wasted valuable draft capital.

29. Green Bay Packers select Dillon Radunz (OT/North Dakota State) Two NDSU players in the first round and only one Clemson player. Go figure. Anyway, wide receiver would be a smart pick here, but I’m just not that high on Rashod Bateman and my most recent memory of Green Bay is watching their offensive line get annihilated by the Bucs in the playoffs. The window to win with Aaron Rodgers is closing and who knows what Jordan Love will be. Better to wait on one of the second round wideouts and protect their future Hall of Famer better than they did in 2020.

30. Buffalo Bills select Jaelen Phillips (Edge/Miami) As versatile of an edge rusher as you’ll find, Buffalo could move Phillips inside at times should the need arise. Buffalo drafted AJ Epenesa last year to mixed results. The one area where the Bills need to get better is pressuring the QB. They just might want to get Phillips (who played at Miami after transferring from UCLA) some warm weather gear.

31. Baltimore Ravens select Terrance Marshall Jr. (WR/LSU) Marshall is a big, fast outside receiver, which is arguably the position most lacking for the Ravens. Lamar Jackson needs guys to throw to and especially guys who can get downfield. Offensive tackle is certainly a consideration after Baltimore traded Orlando Brown Jr. for this pick, but the board has shook out in a way where I think at 58 the Ravens will be able to solidify their line with a bit of a project. And I trust this front office more than any other to select well.

32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers select Asante Samuel Jr. (CB/Florida State) No team is perfect, certainly, but Tampa is so good that they just won the Super Bowl with a 43 year old QB who has lost a significant portion of his arm strength and has the mobility of a cinder block. There’s a line of thinking that they need to look to the post-Brady era, but I’m of the mind that they need to shore up the immediate areas of weakness and one of them is CB. Samuel can play the slot if needed and provides depth at a position that had a topsy-turvy 2020. The re-signing of Antonio Brown made this a no-brainer to me.

The next QB off the board should be Kellen Mond, who is built in the Dak Prescott mold. He’s got an incredible arm and good size. Someone of the Washington, Pittsburgh, Chicago group of teams who missed out on one of the five should target Mond in the middle of the 2nd round.

It was hard to find a spot for one of the running backs in this draft. It’s simply the nature of the NFL. Najee Harris, Travis Etienne, and Javonte Williams would all have been first rounders in the past. Any one of the three could easily be an Offensive Rookie of the Year in the right scheme, especially Williams who I think will catch a lot of people off guard.

The only receiver who I have falling is Rashod Bateman who was just too inconsistent for me at Minnesota. He’s not particularly big, nor is he particularly fast. He’s a good route runner, but we saw what being a good route runner can get you in the NFL in Jerry Jeudy last year. I want guys who can get themselves open and with guys like Elijah Moore and Kadarius Toney, Bateman slips to round 2. He should still be a productive enough receiver in the NFL, but he isn’t going to be a star.

My second round (and later) wideouts to watch are Rondale Moore, who will be used as a gadget guy because he’s basically my size, D’Wayne Eskridge another in the mold of Elijah Moore and Kadarius Toney who is being overlooked, I’d imagine, because he played college in Kalamazoo, and Tylan Wallace who is a physical wideout for his size and with the right team looks to be a long-term star in the slot.

I’ll be very interested to see who drafts Gregory Rousseau, a giant edge rusher from Miami who sat out the 2020 season and has seen his draft stock slip significantly. He’s a freak in the mold of Calais Campbell, but I think that kind of size will scare off some teams into thinking he won’t have the speed to be a productive rusher in the NFL.

I’ll probably have more thoughts on Twitter @jason_botelho. Enjoy the Draft.