sports

2024 NFL Mock Draft

/ Jason / Leave a comment

Instead of a long intro, I’ll simply apologize to anyone who still reads these that I continue to post on this horrifyingly unattractive medium. I’ve toyed with the idea of upgrading how and where I post these but truthfully, there’s just so little traffic and I produce so little content. We could get into a therapy session about whether the lack of content is a result of the little traffic or vice versa, but you’re not my therapist. No one is! I live in Los Angeles and have Blue Cross Blue Shield.

The only differences here versus any other year is that the picks are more of a common-sense selection process than one based entirely on my own rankings. And I included trades! I used both PFF’s tool to create trades that had at least a 75% chance of approval. Here we go:

  1. Chicago Bears select Caleb Williams(QB/USC)

This is kind of a no-brainer and it would be weird and performative to slot any other player to Chicago here. Even if you don’t think Williams is the second coming of Patrick Mahomes, his floor is very high. I’d go so far as to say it’s a dialed back Andrew Luck but with more open field speed and pocket mobility. Williams makes a lot of off-platform throws and those make the highlight reels, but he’s a good and in fact extremely underrated pocket QB who might actually be excellent surrounded by better coaching and skill players than he had at USC. Anyone else here is overthinking things.

  1. Washington Commanders select Jayden Daniels (QB/LSU)

Okay, we’ve moved past the no-brainer portion of the draft. I would hate to have this pick. Truly. There are so many good offensive tackles and wideouts and cornerbacks and interior defensive linemen, but you have to draft a QB here if you’re the Artist Formerly Known as the Football Team. For me, it’s either Daniels or Drake Maye and I lean Daniels, ever so slightly, because of his upside. But man, does his extremely skinny frame and reckless open-field running worry the crap out of me. 

  1. New England Patriots select Marvin Harrison (WR/Ohio State)

This might seem like a contrarian curveball but think about it: New England can take a risky QB prospect in this spot or a universally-agreed upon generational WR talent. When in the course of draft history has the risky QB pick worked out better than the generational skill position pick? It’s different for Washignton at pick 2 because they have their choice of guys. New England doesn’t have that. They have Jacoby Brissett, a more than competent NFL starting QB and a really barren roster. I’d rather build pieces and look to fill QB next year with someone like Quinn Ewers or whoever pulls a Jayden Daniels or Joe Burrow and skyrockets up draft boards. *googles “LSU 2025 starting quarterback:*

  1. TRADE (Minnesota sends both 2024 firsts, picks 166 and 167 to Cardinals for pick 4) 

Minnesota selects Drake Maye (QB/UNC)

I have resisted the urge to do trades for as long as I’ve been doing this, which is I think 16 years. But this year’s draft changes things. There’s just too much need everywhere and too many teams that are whole rosters away from competing. Perhaps no team best exemplifies that latter bit than the Arizona Cardinals, who miss out on Marvin Harrison here, but choose to slide back to 11, acquire an additional first this year (they already had an additional first), and two later round picks. In moving up, Minnesota drafts the best available QB. Maye has a big arm and great size and good mobility. He is a “system” guy and the last two UNC guys (Mitch Trubisky and Sam Howell) didn’t exactly set the NFL ablaze. But Minnesota is a much better place for a rookie QB to learn on the job, with Justin Jefferson ready to catch anything thrown to him. Minnesota pays a hefty price in giving up both of their first rounders, but keep a chunk of their depth picks. 

  1. TRADE (Las Vegas sends a 2024 round 1, a 2025 round 1, 77, 112, 148 to Chargers for pick 5 and pick 69) 

Las Vegas selects JJ McCarthy (QB/Michigan)

We’ve got trade fever. Panicking that they’re going to enter 2024 with Aiden O’Connell as their QB1, Vegas makes an intra division trade with another team in need of draft assets. Now, look, I think JJ McCarthy at 1:5 is an utterly comical risk. I just don’t see where his upside is. Is there some kind of mysterious arm strength or accuracy that he’s been hiding from us? Is he about to grow a few inches? In the modern NFL Draft landscape, I don’t know that we’ve seen a QB with so little in the way of impressive statistics, at any point in his college career, move himself from “not even being talked about” to “top 5 pick.” So I’ll just say, I think the speed of the NFL will destroy JJ McCarthy and this pick will be an immense bust. But like I said, we’re doing groupthink this year.

  1. TRADE (Atlanta sends picks 8, 74, 109, 143, and 187 to Giants for 6) 

Atlanta selects Joe Alt (LT/Notre Dame)

Every ounce of chatter, every mock draft, every simulation, has Tennessee drafting Joe Alt at 1:7. So Atlanta pulls a fast one and gets the true franchise, Day 1 LT in this draft. And there are a lot of good tackles in this draft, some with extremely high upside. But Alt is the only one that has All-Pro potential. Atlanta just spent a lot of money on Kirk Cousins. They have talent at all the skill positions. It’s time for them to get serious and build a team in the trenches. They give up a bevy of picks to move up two spots but no one will question that when Alt is a multi-time Pro Bowler.

  1. Tennessee Titans select Rome Odunze (WR/Washington)

Tennessee’s consolation prize for missing out on Alt is a player who I think is the best WR in this class. Malik Nabers is faster. Marvin Harrison has a more dynamic grasp of route running. But Odunze is the most complete all-around receiver. He’s stronger than Nabers or Harrison. I like his hands better than either of the other two. And his contested-catch ability is second to none. I’m in love with him as a pro prospect. Logic and reason says that Harrison is the first receiver off the board, but for me, Odunze is a steal here for a team that is perpetually looking for a star pass catcher in his prime. 

  1. New York Giants (from Atlanta) select Malik Nabers (WR/LSU)

The Giants move back two spots, acquire 4 additional picks this year, and still get one of the big 3 WRs. Nabers is the speedster. A guy who can line up in the slot and win or a guy who can line up outside and burn. He is electrifying which is something the Giants have lacked at WR since another guy from Louisiana State University. 

  1. Chicago Bears select Byron Murphy II (DT/Texas)

The hope for most people in Chicago seems to be that one of the WRs falls to them. That doesn’t happen here, but WR is absurdly deep in this draft. Like, truly 10 impact guys deep. Chicago will have an opportunity to take whatever flavor WR they like in Round 3 or 4. Instead they get the best interior lineman in the draft, a guy who possesses insane athleticism who should benefit greatly early on from one-on-one matchups in the trenches, something he didn’t see often at Texas. 

  1. New York Jets select Taliese Fuaga (OT/Oregon State)

If the Jets don’t draft an offensive lineman in this incredibly fortuitous situation, they should also move to Las Vegas, but quit football and become a part-time bartender at a 3-star casino. Fuaga played exclusively RT at Oregon State and there was no one better in college football.

  1. Arizona Cardinals (from Minnesota) select Quinyon Mitchell (CB/Toledo)

Arizona’s roster is what NFL insiders call “gross” and “depleted” and “directionless” and “bad.” Their roster is so bad that we’ve all just assumed that Kyler Murray is a franchise QB and they shouldn’t even think about it, because my god if they spent a moment trying to replace QB, I can’t fathom how much further this roster would fall into disrepair. Anyway, that’s why I love the fake trade they made with Minnesota so much. Three first-round picks should net 3 starters on opening day. They start with Quinyon Mitchell, who set the postseason workout circuit ablaze. He’s a complete CB. A one-on-one guy who can tackle like a safety. In a division with DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk, this is a solid need for Arizona to address. 

  1. Denver Broncos select Dallas Turner (EDGE/Alabama)

Denver wanted to move up to draft Maye or McCarthy but they lacked the assets to do so, perhaps due in some part to the Russell Wilson debacle. So instead they stand here at 12, looking like Vincent Vega waiting on Mia Wallace…oh my god I’m so sorry, Bill Simmons just stole my ASUS laptop computer. Denver needs impact players all over the field, and here they get the top pass rusher in the draft. 

  1. Los Angeles Chargers (from Las Vegas) select JC Latham (RT/Alabama)

Moving back from 5 was key for the Chargers. Sure, they could have drafted Joe Alt and then had him draw straws with Rashawn Slater to determine who would anchor which tackle position. OR they could draft a true RT and acquire a third this season and a future first from a team that should be pretty bad in 2025. I like this scenario better. Jim Harbaugh has his principles and one of them is that offensive lines matter. Offensive line has long been a nightmare for LA’s lesser son. Problem…well, not solved, but problem…less problematic?

  1. New Orleans Saints select Troy Fautanu (LT/Washington)

If I paid Derek Carr a lot of money to play QB for my team, I sure as heck would make sure that I was protecting his blind side and doing so with someone a lot better than Trevor Penning.

  1. Indianapolis Colts select Brock Bowers (TE/Georgia)

This has to be a dream scenario for the Colts. They’re thin at pass-catcher and in Bowers they get a game-wrecking, who-knows-what-he-is pass catching dynamo. Bowers should present a lot of matchup problems for opposing defenses and should make Michael Pittman’s life (and by proxy Anthony Richardson’s) much easier. And Indianapolis didn’t have to move an inch to get their guy.

  1. Seattle Seahawks select Laiatu Latu (EDGE/UCLA)

This will be the year that the Seahawks address their anemic pass rush. No, really. I can feel it. 

  1. Jacksonville Jaguars select Cooper DeJean (CB/Iowa)

DeJean will either get drafted in the top 10 or will fall to the second round. Reviews are all over the place. Some people don’t think he can play CB. Some think he can but that he would be an excellent safety. Some see a special teams ace. And others think he’s the best corner in the draft. So, uh??? I think he lies between the second and fourth options there. He’s just so athletic and look, if we’re being honest, he’s a white secondary player and I think that throws a lot of people off. The Jaguars need playmakers in their secondary. If DeJean is a CB1 that’s awesome. If he’s a Pro Bowl safety? That’s cool too. If he’s even a good starter that’s also an upgrade. 

  1. Cincinnati Bengals select Olumuyiwa Fashanu (OT/Penn State)

This will be the year that the Bengals address their anemic pass blocking. No, really. I can feel it.

  1. Los Angeles Rams select Amarius Mims (OT/Georgia)

This is the Rams first first-round pick since they took Jared Goff in 2016. 8 years. It’s a credit to their scouting department that they haven’t had a long-term fall off. They could go in a number of directions here, but I’d like to see them take Mims, a high ceiling, low floor right tackle. Mims had an injury-derailed final season at Georgia, which contributed to his career total of 8 starts. Still, there’s a lot to like here and it’s a worthwhile gamble for a team that’s been doing well without any opportunities to gamble.

  1. Pittsburgh Steelers Terrion Arnold (CB/Alabama)

Well, they don’t need a QB…I have no idea what Pittsburgh is doing on the offensive side of the ball, so let’s give them the best available player at a position of need on defense and move on.

  1. TRADE (Tampa Bay sends 26, 89, and 125 to Miami for 21 and 198) 

Tampa Bay selects Jared Verse (EDGE/Florida State)

Sensing that they could lose out on a really good pass rusher, Tampa swaps firsts with Miami and sends a third and fourth their way to try to find an answer at EDGE. I think the jury has deliberated sufficiently on Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and while he’s not a full-on bust, he’s not a game changer. Tampa is aging rapidly on defense. Verse is on paper a big upgrade over JTS.

  1. Philadelphia Eagles select Adonai Mitchell (WR/Texas)

Two years ago, the Eagles could have let the internet vote for their first round draft pick and it wouldn’t have mattered. That’s how much depth they had. Now? The margin to miss on this pick is getting pretty thin. They need to get younger on the offensive line. They need secondary depth. They could afford to replace Jordan Davis who appears to be a “some downs” lineman. Or they could put the car in 5th and drive 140 across the Walt Whitman Bridge. That’s what Adonai Mitchell is here. If he hits, you have the best WR corp in the NFL, a trio of players who can do everything you need at that position group. And if that doesn’t work, they can always send Nick Sirianni over to the other side of the Whitman to pump gas at a Sunoco. 

  1. Arizona Cardinals (from Minnesota) select Jer’Zhan Newton (DT/Illinois)

Just Arizona accumulating more Day 1 starters. Newton is such a truly well-rounded interior lineman. He’s really good against the run and strong and quick enough to be an effective pass rusher. He’s a real steal this late in the first.

  1. Dallas Cowboys select Nate Wiggins (CB/Clemson)

You might look at the Dallas Cowboys and say “hey Daron Bland had all those interceptions returned for touchdown last year. The last thing they need is another cornerback. That guy is great!” and I would implore you to make a wager with me about Bland’s o/u INT number for 2024. This position group is not particularly good, counting stats aside and the absence of Dan Quinn could leave a big hole. Wiggins can play outside or in the slot and would be a pretty immediate upgrade over basically anyone on this roster outside of maybe Trevon Diggs. And even he’s pretty overrated.

  1. Green Bay Packers select Graham Barton (OL/Duke)

Barton is probably a guard at the NFL level and an elite one at that. I think teams are finally catching on that it’s actually worthwhile to take players who are elite at their positions and that it doesn’t matter if they’re an interior lineman or not. So that’s nice, because I’ve long been a believer that if you have a need and a player grades as a 7-10 year starter, you draft that player.

  1. Miami (from Tampa Bay) select Tyler Guyton (OT/Oklahoma)

Miami’s poor offensive line play has become a bit of a running gag. Guyton is in no way a sure-fire Day 1 starter. He is very inexperienced and had moments at the Senior Bowl that made me question whether he was a first round talent or even a football player at all. But they don’t teach 6’8” former D-1 H-back pretty much anywhere. Guyton was a RT for a left-handed QB in college and if you don’t see the parallel here…His game needs refinement but he’s uber-athletic and worth taking a chance on, especially when you’ve been as porous as the Dolphins have been. His upside is enormous and too good to pass up on here.

  1. Arizona Cardinals select Brian Thomas Jr. (WR/LSU)

You know, Marvin Harrison is really good. But you know what else is good? Drafting the best CB in the draft, a Day 1 interior line force, and getting the best of the second tier of WRs. Thomas is 6’3” and runs a 4.3. His game needs refinement, but for your third first round pick, you’d be hard-pressed to find a more worthwhile gamble than on this make-up succeeding in the NFL.

  1. Buffalo Bills select Xavier Legette (WR/South Carolina)

Here’s where I say “screw it, I’m taking my guy.” Buffalo traded Stefon Diggs which seems like probably addition by subtraction at this point in his career. Legette is such an exciting prospect. There’s some DK Metcalf in his build. In terms of contested-catchers, he’s close to Rome Odunze. He’s so physical, but also ran a sub 4.4 at the Combine. He’s much lower on most other boards, but we’ve reached the portion of the WR pool where you determine your WR need and you fill it accordingly. And Buffalo could use a guy like Legette more than a speedster like Xavier Worthy or a hands guy like Ladd McConkey.

  1. Detroit Lions select Darius Robinson (EDGE/Missouri)

In an effort to build the most intimidating, high-motor pass rush that the NFL has ever seen, we have Darius Robinson going to the Detroit Lions to join forces with Aidan Hutchison. Robinson isn’t in the mold of the modern NFL EDGE player. He’s more strength than speed certainly. But his strength absolutely plays. He moved around the line a bit in college but settled in nicely as a pass rusher last year, earning first team all-SEC honors.He’s in the right place for some excellent coaching. I love this fit.

  1. Baltimore Ravens select Kool-Aid McKinstry (CB/Alabama)

McKinstry is about as steady as they come at CB. He’s not going to draw a ton of DPIs. He’s not going to get badly burned by receivers. He’s kind of the perfect Baltimore Ravens guy. 

  1. San Francisco 49ers select Jackson Powers-Johnson (OL/Oregon)

JPJ is, shall we say, different. If you like your centers pulling, this guy makes Jason Kelce look like a sloth. Everything JPJ does is with the amplifier turned up to 12. Truly, if high motor guys are your thing, go watch some Oregon tape. He feels like a perfect fit on outside zone runs in the Shannahn offense. I could see him going as high as Miami at 21. He could also go as low as late in the 2nd round because really, what do I know? The one thing I do know if that I love watching Jackson Power-Johnson.

  1. TRADE (New Orleans sends 45 and a 2025 first to Kansas City for 32) 

New Orleans selects Michael Penix Jr. (QB/Washington)

Kansas City gets to probably still have their choice of WRs at 45 and they get an extra first next year. New Orleans gets to jump the gun on all the teams who missed out on QBs (Hi Denver!) Hi Giants!) trying to trade into the top of the 2nd round for Penix, Spencer Rattler, and Bo Nix. I could honestly go with any of the 3 QBs here and truthfully I think that Rattler is the best fit for New Orleans, especially if he’s going to sit for a year. You don’t need Michael Penix to sit for any amount of time behind Derek Carr. He’s got plenty of experience. But he is, to me, a hair better than Rattler or Nix, both of whom I really like as Round 2 guys and both of which I prefer to JJ McCarthy. 

And that’s it. No second round. No other guys I like (there are so many). Just a cool and breezy few thousand words. My annual proof-of-life. Thanks for checking it out.

MLB 25 And Under Dream Team

/ Jason / Leave a comment

This is a sequel to a post from 2012. You can read that post here.

In the above referenced post from 2012, I attempted to build a roster of the best 25 and under players. Unlike some lists you’ll find on the Internet, I didn’t make it a list of the 25 best players aged 25 and under. I used relief pitchers and bench bats and tried to build a great team.

The 2012 list came at a time when a number of star players just barely made the qualifying mark of “25 by the time I publish this.” Gone from that list, because of age, are stars like Yu Darvish, Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg, Andrew McCutchen, Buster Posey, and Craig Kimbrel. And a quick glance will show that even some guys who are past the age cut-off wouldn’t make this team today even if they did qualify (Justin Upton, Jason Kipnis).

This is an exercise that I would like to revisit every 2 seasons. One rule that I’m changing is that to qualify, players need to be 25 years old not today, but on the last day of the regular season. As with the previous iteration, players with no Major League service time are eligible. And so without further writing that most of you probably skipped over, here is my team:

 

STARTING LINEUP

Catcher: Derek Norris (Oakland Athletics): The talent pool at this position is not very deep. The 2012 catcher, Buster Posey, has graduated to age 27 and with prospects like Travis d’Arnaud and Mike Zunino struggling to be useful to the Mets and Mariners respectively, Norris and his high-OBP finds himself here. Norris may not be a long-term catcher as he’s not known for his incredible defensive prowess, but any player with his ability to get on-base has value in a pool this shallow.

First Baseman: Freddie Freeman (Atlanta Braves): I overlooked Freddie Freeman on my 2012 team. I gave him mention but didn’t think that he could be a patient enough hitter to have true long-term value over someone like Eric Hosmer, who is excellent defensively. Hosmer, however, has been an abysmal hitter. Meanwhile, since I published my 2012 team, Freeman has become not only the best young first baseman in baseball, but maybe the best overall first baseman, short of Miguel Cabrera. Defensively, Freeman has been inconsistent, ending 2013 on the positive side of Defensive Runs Saved. This season has been a very different story defensively. But we’re not really building this all-star team solely on defense. Freeman’s bat can play almost anywhere in the lineup because of his versatility as a hitter. That’s immensely more valuable when building a team like this.

Second Baseman: Rougned Odor (Texas Rangers): The player who you wish had an “h” in his first name is also the youngest player in the Majors. Odor has played in a very limited fashion as a 20 year old for Texas, but has shown a mature approach at the plate and solid defensive prowess. He finds himself here for the same reason that he finds himself playing for the Rangers: Jurickson Profar’s ailing shoulder. With Profar likely out for the rest of the season, Odor might be just a placeholder here, but in his brief stint in the Majors (<100 PA) he has been a much better hitter than Profar was. And so as much as it pains me to leave Profar off this team, I have to give the nod to Odor.

Third Baseman: Anthony Rendon (Washington Nationals): Injuries are always a concern for Rendon and so a long-term investment is a risk, but in his nearly full season (158 games at the time of writing this blurb) as a Major Leaguer, he sports a 107 OPS+ and plays a very good defensive third base. There are other names you could put here (see the bench section and the shortstop) but Rendon has produced and has shown improvement in his ability to drive the ball (his slugging pct. is 65 points higher in 2014 than it was in 2013).

Shortstop: Xander Bogaerts (Boston Red Sox): Just an astounding player. At 21, Bogaerts is getting on-base at a 36% clip, has an OPS approaching .800, and isn’t striking out at a rate you’d expect from someone so young. His approach is so developed for a 21 year old that you forget his age. Defensively, he’s probably a third baseman long-term and he’s playing there now for Boston with the recent signing of Stephen Drew, but in the interim, Bogaerts can play shortstop in the Majors without much difficulty. It’s shocking to me that he doesn’t get more publicity considering the team he plays for.

Left Field: Bryce Harper (Washington Nationals): A homer pick? Probably. But let’s take a look at what the 21 year old Harper has done in his career to date:

.273/.353/.476, 125 OPS+, 43 HR, 126 RBI, 8.9 WAR (279 career games)

Harper is the victim, so to speak, of Mike Trout’s success. LeBron James recently called himself the most scrutinized player in sports, which very well may be true. Harper though may be Major League Baseball’s most scrutinized player (if not him, it’s my right fielder), even at times by his own inept manager. It all seems pretty unfair when you look at the production. Statistically speaking, at his age, Harper still compares favorably to Ken Griffey Jr. and Micky Mantle. So maybe we should cool off on the criticism just a bit.

Center Field: Mike Trout (Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, California Angels): Simply put, Trout is the best all-around player in baseball today and the best all-around player in baseball probably since early 1990’s Barry Bonds, aka the greatest player in the history of baseball. Trout will turn 23 this August and has shown some signs of being human this season, as his overall slash line is down across the board from his 2013 total. But there’s no question that he owns this spot until the moment he’s no longer age-eligible, or scientists create a more perfect baseball player (unlikely).

Right Field: Yasiel Puig (Los Angeles Dodgers): Rounding out an outfield of the most dynamic players in baseball who all also happen to be under the age of 25 is Yasiel Puig, arguably the most exciting player in the game. Puig is only 23 (and won’t turn 24 until December) and has only played 164 games in his Major League career (so, call it a full season). He sports a career OBP of .403, which is relatively unheard of for such a young hitter from Latin America, where patience at the plate is not necessarily treated as a virtue. Puig’s slugging percentage of .549 would have been topped by only 4 other Major Leaguers last season. His arm in right field is Vladimir Guerrero-esque. And for every base running blunder that gets shown on MLB Tonight and criticized by the Billy Ripkens and Harold Reynolds of the world, Puig evens those out by stretching the sort of hits most players give up on at first base into doubles. Puig is on a path to becoming the best import hitter in baseball history. And if you’re whining about Roberto Clemente right now, it took him 6 seasons to put up numbers even close to what Puig has done in one full season. Viva Puig.

Designated HItter: Giancarlo Stanton (Miami Marlins): As I stated in my 2012 piece, I don’t believe that pitchers should hit. I love the pace of National League baseball, but I don’t love pitchers hurting themselves running the bases or being automatic outs because for every Mike Leake, there are 30 Johnny Cuetos and Bartolo Colons. So we use a DH and in this case, the perfect DH, in Stanton. His glove is not a true detriment, but his body has proven to be not entirely made of steel. Giving him the ability to focus on the one thing he does better than anyone (murdering baseballs) is a true asset to this squad. Stanton certainly isn’t on the same Hall of Fame path that Trout and Puig are (I know it’s a long time off before we elect players from this team to the Hall, relax), but no one in baseball has the raw power that Stanton does. And unlike a lot of raw power hitters, Stanton doesn’t strike out at an historic rate and knows how to draw walks.

BATTING ORDER

Xander Bogaerts
Yasiel Puig
Mike Trout
Giancarlo Stanton
Freddie Freeman
Bryce Harper
Derek Norris
Anthony Rendon
Rougned Odor

 

BENCH PLAYERS

Salvador Perez (C, Kansas City Royals): Perez is a big catcher who has managed to stay healthy while catching every day. His offensive numbers are not terribly impressive, but again, the talent pool at this position is not full of recent success stories.

Anthony Rizzo (1B, Chicago Cubs): Quietly, because he plays for a terrible baseball team, Rizzo is putting together a very nice season, seeing his walks increase and his strikeout rate drop at a very high rate. In short, he’s turning into a Freddie Freeman-type player and I’m okay with having two of those on my roster.

Andrelton Simmons (SS, Atlanta Braves): Simmons beat out slick fielding Indians prospect Francisco Lindor because his defense is unrivaled and he already has the Major League experience that the very young (but very developed) Lindor does not. Simmons will not be a late game pinch-hitting option.

Manny Machado (3B/SS, Baltimore Orioles): You would think, given the hype, that Machado has been a great hitter, but he hasn’t. It’s his glove that has been very valuable, leading the Majors in dWAR last season. The bat should come (hopefully with some maturity) and even if it doesn’t, the defensive flexibility that he provides is a big plus. With him, Rendon, and Bogaerts, you have three guys who can play at least two different positions in the infield each.

Billy Hamilton (OF, Cincinnati Reds): Hamilton was the toughest add here, beating out Pirates prospect Gregory Polanco, Marlins outfielder Christian Yelich, and Astros center fielder George Springer, because he brings something to the table that few players in recent memory have brought: blinding speed. In a late game situation, with someone like Derek Norris standing on first, Hamilton would be the ideal game changer.

 

PITCHING ROTATION

Chris Sale (LHP, Chicago White Sox): I tried for years to write off Chris Sale. His slight frame and terrifying delivery screamed “ARM INJURY!!!!” And yet, other than some time missed earlier this season with minor soreness, Sale has been healthy in his now 3rd season as a Major League starting pitcher. In his two previous seasons (I’m largely discounting the years the White Sox used him as a reliever), Sale was a sure-fire top of the rotation guy who finished in the top 6 in Cy Young voting each year, but was not necessarily someone you’d lump into the “Best Pitcher in the Game” category immediately. That has changed this year. Sale currently sports a sub 2.00 ERA, his highest K/9 as a starter, and a WHIP so microscopic (0.67) that he is entering not just “Best Pitcher in the Game” category, but “Best Pitching Season in the Modern Era” category. Of course, pitchers have half seasons like this (we call it Ubaldo Jimenzing), but everything Sale has done so far leans toward not just a stretch of good luck, but a pitcher who is beginning to peak. And that peak might be rising up to Mount Kershaw before long.

Masahiro Tanaka (RHP, New York Yankees): Tanaka just qualifies for this team, as he won’t turn 26 until November 1 and that’s good because he deserves to be on any list, created by any person, on the Internet. At the time of his signing, many made Hideki Irabu or Kei Igawa comparisons because Tanaka, like Irabu and Igawa, is Japanese. That and the fact that they have pitched for the New York Yankees is literally the only thing those three men have in common. Tanaka has been a revelation in the Majors and is the sole driving force behind the Yankees not chasing the Tampa Bay Rays and Houston Astros for the worst record in the American League. Tanaka is 10-1 (I don’t care about w-l record, but it looks pretty), sports a sub-1.00 WHIP and an ERA+ of 200. Those numbers for a rookie pitcher, even though Tanaka had great success pitching professionally in Japan, are incredible. Consider those numbers only in the context of a 25 year old prospect and they’re incredible. The race between Tanaka and Chris Sale for the American League Cy Young should be fantastic to watch, even if their respective teams aren’t. Tanaka has already been worth 3.5 wins to the Yankees, making his $22 million annual salary seem more than deserved so far in his young career.

Julio Teheran (RHP, Atlanta Braves): It’s not that Julio Teheran came out of nowhere. He has been a highly touted pitcher for many years. He was a fixture on Top 100 prospect lists before making his debut, along with two other Braves prospects (Arodys Vizcaino and Randall Delgado) both of whom have flamed out to this point. For a while, Teheran looked like a potential flame out as well. In spot starts for the Braves in 2011 and 2012, Teheran was wildly inconsistent and prone to pitching too much to contact, despite his great arsenal. Last season, he put together a campaign good enough to finish 5th in NL Rookie of the Year voting, but wasn’t the kind of pitcher who was going to make a list of the five best starting pitchers under 25. 2014 has shown that Teheran was really just not far enough along in his development in those first two seasons of spot starts. His ERA+ has skyrocketed over 150 and his WHIP has dipped below 1.00 and while his strikeouts have dropped, he is on pace to throw close to 200 innings, anchoring a very depleted pitching staff. And at age 23, we’re likely only seeing the start of what Teheran can be.

Madison Bumgarner (LHP, San Francisco Giants): Along with Sale, the only holdover from the 2012 staff, Bumgarner continues to pitch solidly for the Giants. His numbers compared to 2013 are seemingly all different (+ and -) but all within a similar range, showing something that I guess we can call consistency (example: His ERA is 1/10 of a run lower and his K/9 is about 1 strikeout higher, while his WHIP is .14 higher than last season). In short, he’s striking more guys out and pitching to contact more (almost 2 more hits/9) but the results are the same (in fact, his FIP is actually lower in 2014 than in 2013, which you wouldn’t expect given the jump in hits allowed). All of these statistics are a long way of saying, when you’ve got a 6’5″ lefty with a 4-pitch arsenal, who strikes out nearly 10 batters per 9 innings AND he’s under 25, he makes your rotation each and every time.

Sonny Gray (RHP, Oakland Athletics): Our fifth starter doesn’t fit the mold of your typical Major League starting pitcher. Gray stands only 5’11”. Generally, right handed pitchers below 6′ have a difficult time finding success because they’re pitching on a lower plane than their taller rivals. Pitching from that lower plane will allow most hitters to see the ball sooner at eye level, giving them that fraction of time that makes identifying a pitch that much easier. Gray has defied the 6′ or over notion in his 24 career starts. The former Vanderbilt standout offers a fastball in the mid-90s, an excellent sinker, and his best swing-and-miss pitch, a curveball. Gray has also been throwing a changeup more often as he develops as a full-time starter. In addition, Gray isn’t just a product of pitching at O.co Coliseum, as his road splits are dramatically better than his home (lower ERA and WHIP with a higher K/9). There were a number of options at the #5 spot, including current starters who you’ll find in the bullpen below and two of the game’s best pitchers who you’ll find in a special section, but Gray has shown little signs of being a one-year wonder and I think spends the next handful of years as the ace of one of the best real-life staffs in baseball.

BULLPEN

Michael Wacha (RHP, St. Louis Cardinals)

Trevor Rosenthal (RHP, St. Louis Cardinals)

Carlos Martinez (RHP, St. Louis Cardinals)

Addison Reed (RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks)

Yordano Ventura (RHP, Kansas City Royals)

Ian Krol (LHP, Detroit Tigers

-There’s no real need for individual analysis here. Until Wacha develops a useful third pitch, I like him better in a relief role, despite his great success to this point in his young career. Ventura, who is a starter, finds himself in the bullpen for similar reasons and additionally because he’s just a little too short to be a right-handed two pitch pitcher. The list of those guys who were successful starting pitchers is not a long or existent one. The rest of the bullpen is high-upside filler, really. The bullpen talent pool does not feature many dynamic youngsters outside of the few you see here (plus Addison Reed, by default).

OF NOTE

Jose Fernandez (RHP, Miami Marlins)

Matt Harvey (RHP, New York Mets)

-Not including these two pitchers felt wrong. But with both recovering from Tommy John surgery, it’s very hard to leave off a healthy pitcher like Sonny Gray or Julio Teheran. As much as we’ve all been programmed to think that pitchers can come back from Tommy John surgery “as good as ever” that’s not always the case, as no two bodies (and thus no two arms) are the same. Fernandez’s injury was especially unfortunate because the Marlins look like a contender for a playoff spot this season, with big improvements from Nathan Eovaldi and Henderson Alvarez in the rotation. For Harvey, he made New York Mets games must-watch spectacles, which they most certainly are not now in his absence.  If healthy, and where they were before their injuries, they’d both be the centerpieces of this rotation,bumping out Gray and Teheran. Until then, I’m going with healthy arms. But I will say, baseball without Harvey and Fernandez is just slightly less enjoyable.