With the college football season starting tonight (North Carolina State vs. South Carolina and Oregon State at Stanford are on nationally), I knew that I had to wrap up the season preview today. There’s a lot to get to, so let’s start with the Pac-10.
PAC-10
Just like the Big 10, the Pac 10 is a one team conference. USC is leaps, bounds, and whatever other piece of measurement you want to use, ahead of the rest of the Pac (get it? It’s a pun!) I honestly believe that USC’s defense is better than half of the defenses in the NFL, led by Linebackers Brian Cushing and Rey Maualuga and safety Taylor Mays. The question coming into this season for the Trojans is Mark Sanchez’s health. But really, the Trojans just need Sanchez to be healthy enough to hand the ball off to Joe McKnight and CJ Gable.
The rest of the Pac (still a pun) is led by the Arizona State Sun Devils who, last year, couldn’t keep Quarterback Rudy Carpenter upright. They have their own great tailback in Keegan Herring and a capable defense. However, they also have to play in LA against the Trojans, in Berkeley against the Bears, and, oh, also host Georgia in the second biggest nonconference September game on September 20th.
A team to watch in this conference is not Oregon as most people believe. Or Cal. It is Oregon State. Remember, the Beavers beat USC two years ago in Corvallis and are returning star wideout Sammie Stroughter (who was injured most of last season). The litmus test for the Beavers will be their first four games (at an improving Stanford team, at Penn State, home against Hawaii, and then the showdown against the Trojans in Corvallis). If the Beavers can go 3-1 in those first 4 games, they’ll likely be Rose Bowl bound.
Here’s the final breakdown for the Pac 10:
1.) USC
2.) Oregon State
3.) Arizona State
4.) Arizona
5.) Oregon
6.) Cal
7.) Stanford
8.) UCLA
9.) Washington
10.) Washington State
Game of the Year: USC @ Oregon State (9/25)
Player of the Year: Rey Maualuga (LB/USC)
SEC
Now to the real muddled mess that is the SEC. I can reasonably see 5 teams winning the SEC this year. I can’t see all 5 winning the National Title like I can see 3 Big 12 teams, but in my opinion, the two conferences are neck and neck. Let’s start in the SEC West, just to be contrary.
The divide between the top and the bottom here is almost comical. Georgia, Florida, and Tennessee are miles better Kentucky and Vanderbilt. It’s not even quantifiable. South Carolina The Gamecocks could finish ahead of the best teams in the conference, or they could lose 6 conference games. Last year they beat Georgia in Athens and lost to Vanderbilt in Columbia. If they can find a solid starter at quarterback, whether it be Stephen Garcia, Tommy Beecher, or Chris Smelley. If any of them can be stable at the QB position, the Gamecocks will be good. is the odd duck of the group.
Ultimately though, this race comes down to Florida and Georgia. I think the Bulldogs are the most overrated team in the nation. And yes, I may be proven wrong, especially if they are undefeated coming into October, after playing September games against Arizona State, Alabama, South Carolina, and a Central Michigan team that is good, even if you have no idea who or what they are. The Gators early schedule sees Miami (FL), Tennessee (in Knoxville), and Mississippi, after a game this Saturday against a down Hawaii team. Most people expect Georgia and Florida’s November 1st game in Jacksonville to be the biggest game of the year. I can’t envision a real scenario in which both teams come into that game undefeated. In fact, I don’t think Georgia will get into October unscathed and I can see the Volunteers creeping up on Florida in their game September 20th.
That might leave you thinking that I’m picking the Volunteers to win the SEC East. You’re wrong. They’ll have 3 losses by season’s end. Ultimately, the November 1st Gators/Dawgs game is going to decide the SEC East Champion, but it won’t, like most are predicting, decide the National Championship game.
SEC East Breakdown:
1.) Florida
2.) Georgia
3.) Tennessee
4.) South Carolina
5.) Vanderbilt
6.) Kentucky
Out West in the SEC there is only one team that I see as the crème de la crème. That team is not the Bayou Bengals (LSU Tigers). It is another Tiger. The Auburn Tigers. Auburn is moving to the spread attack this year and it’ll make all the difference in the world. This team had a great defense already. Capable of carrying them. Now, they will put points on the board. There’ll be some bumps in the road along the way, but luckily for Auburn, most of those games will come at home. I see them losing in Morgantown in a non-conference October game and perhaps losing in conference once, but it won’t matter. LSU does not have the offense to be elite in the SEC. They’ll be very good, especially defensively, but not National Title or even SEC title good.
My dark horse is Alabama who I think could make a lot of noise this year. They bring in my pick for National Freshman of the Year in wideout Julio Jones. There’s a lot of pressure on their Quarterback John Parker Wilson, but I think that for once, the kid will keep the Tide in games and there defense will be ratcheted up another notch. Watch the Tide.
SEC West Breakdown:
1.) Auburn
2.) LSU
3.) Alabama
4.) Mississippi
5.) Mississippi State
6.) Arkansas
SEC Title Game: Florida vs. Auburn.
Game of the Year: Florida vs. Georgia (November 1)
Player of the Year: Tim Tebow (QB/Florida)
So there you have the big 6 breakdown, though there’s one more conference issue at hand. That is the Mountain West and WAC conferences. BYU, Utah, TCU, and Fresno State have all been cited as possible BCS busters. I don’t see it happening, though all will be very good. The problem is that BYU, Utah, and TCU will have to play each other. If I had to give the nod to one team in the MWC, it would be Utah, who get BYU in Salt Lake City in what should be a great game, with a lot on the line. For Fresno State, there biggest roadblocks to BCS busting will be games against Rutgers and Wisconsin at the start of the season. If they win both games, they’ll likely be bowling big-time.
There’s a little award called the Heisman Trophy that they give out in college football. Here are my 5 preseason Heisman candidates:
Tim Tebow (QB/Florida)
Knowshown Moreno (RB/Georgia)
Chase Daniel (QB/Missouri)
Graham Harrell (QB/Texas Tech)
Beanie Wells (RB/Ohio State)
Okay, it’s real prediction time. Time for fearless BCS bowl predictions.
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Oregon State (Ohio State winner)
Orange Bowl: Wake Forest vs. Missouri (Missouri winner)
Sugar Bowl: South Florida vs. Auburn (Auburn winner)
Fiesta Bowl: Florida vs. West Virginia (Florida winner)
National Title Game: Oklahoma vs. Southern California (Oklahoma winner)
And there you have it, the Oklahoma Sooners will win the 2008 BCS National Championship. I love their offense. I like their defense. And I love the fact that head coach Bob Stoops will be out to prove everyone wrong after their recent BCS failures. I don’t like Oklahoma (in that I don’t see myself rooting for them), but I really think they are, as constructed, the team with the best chance to win the championship.
Now it’s time for my favorite section, the one game you need to watch every week. And maybe a second.
Week 1: Illinois vs. Missouri (8/30 8:30 p.m.)- Very good nonconference border war.
Honorable Mention to a game at 5 p.m. that day between Appalachian State and LSU.
Week 2: Oregon State @ Penn State (9/6 3:30 p.m.)-A terrible slate of games gives us this.
Honorable Mention goes to UNH @ Army (9/6 1:00 p.m.) for obvious reasons.
Week 3: Ohio State @ USC (9/13 8:00 p.m.)-A great slate of games gives us the best regular season, nonconference matchup ever. I’m not joking.
Honorable Mention to: South Florida @ Kansas (9/12 8:00 p.m.), Wisconsin @ Fresno State (9/13 10:30 p.m.) Georgia @ South Carolina (9/13 3:30 p.m.),
Week 4: LSU @ Auburn (9/20 TBA)- A huge conference showdown.
Honorable Mention to: Georgia @ Arizona State (9/20 8:00 p.m.), Florida @ Tennessee (9/20 TBA), West Virginia @ Colorado (9/18 8:30 p.m.)
Week 5: USC @ Oregon State (9/25 9:00 p.m.)- A bigger game in the Pac 10 than you think
Honorable Mention: Illinois @ Penn State (9/27 8:00 p.m.), Georgia @ Alabama (9/27 TBA)
Week 6: Ohio State @ Wisconsin (10/4 8:00 p.m.)- One of the few potential Big 10 roadblocks for the Buckeyes
Honorable Mention: Pittsburgh @ South Florida (10/2 7:30),
(At this point, we’re doing away with honorable mention, because at this point in the season, there will be plenty of great games that I can’t predict right now. Think Kansas and Missouri last year).
Week 7: LSU @ Florida (10/11 TBA)- On what promises to be a great weekend, this looks like the pick of a very good litter.
Week 8: Kansas @ Oklahoma (10/18 TBA)- See also: Missouri @ Texas. A big weekend for the Big XII.
Week 9: Georgia @ LSU (10/25 TBA)- This follows a Thursday night out of conference tilt between Auburn and West Virginia that could be a BCS Bowl preview.
Week 10: Florida vs. Georgia (11/1 TBA)- The biggest conference game on the schedule this year. Two hated rivals with a lot at stake.
Week 11: TCU @ Utah (11/6 8:00 p.m.)- A very subpar, in comparison to the weeks around it, week gives us a very important Thursday night MWC game.
Week 12: Georgia @ Auburn (11/15 TBA)- This game is even bigger if the Dawgs beat the Gators in the Cocktail Party.
Week 13: Texas Tech @ Oklahoma (11/22 TBA)- This one could be for the Big XII title. And revenge for the Sooners.
Week 14: Auburn @ Alabama (11/29 TBA)- For the first time in a while, the Iron Bowl could actually mean more than just bragging rights in the Yellowhammer State.
Week 15: South Florida @ West Virginia (12/6 TBA)- The winner get a BCS berth, the loser goes to the Gator Bowl.
Before I go, here’s my FCS final four preview:
Semi-Finals:
Appalachian State vs. North Dakota State
Eastern Washington vs. New Hampshire
Finals:
Appalachian State vs. New Hampshire
Mark it down. I’ll be in Chattanooga.
YOU LORD. UNH CHAMPIONSHIP.>>As for what you posted, I watched some of the Oregon State game and didn’t like a lot of what I saw. Oregon State moved the ball well but didn’t seem particularly apt at getting into the end zone.>>I would be shocked if USC didn’t make the national championship game. I don’t know enough about other teams to offer a quantifiable opinion, but is Oklahoma going to beat Texas Tech?>>Also, for Saturday, I’d suggest checking out the Elon/Richmond FCS matchup. Richmond, one of my favorites in FCS despite employing a London as a coach, travels to Elon, who throws a lot. Both teams are ranked in the top 15, deservedly so.>>If you’re looking for a shocker prediction week one, I don’t think they’ll be one enormous FCS upset. I think Richmond has the best chance to be enormous in week two, against Virginia. The Cidatel may make it interesting, too.
Road to Chattenooga take 4.>>It nice to make the 100 mark. Ive enjoyed every one, well i think i have.>>Congrats on the job.