(post-completion editor’s (me) note: this is a long post. very long. 10,300 words long. i don’t have the where-with-all to proofread this right now. i really do apologize for the mistakes that you will find below, in terms of spelling (not the incorrect predictions). i hope you enjoy and, as always, please feel free to comment and tell me how wrong i am)

So, I’m starting this at 9:50 p.m. on Thursday night. I have a strong feeling that there’s no way this gets finished tonight. If it does, I would guess that it won’t be thorough. But we’ll see, won’t we?

“Team-by-team sort of breakdowns, followed by the predicted order of finish in the division” is how this will go. Let’s start in the East. The AL East.

AL East:

Baltimore Orioles: Congratulations! You too can be a Major League pitcher. I feel like I wrote this last year when I did my preview. The only thing that’s different this year is that the Orioles’ rotation is much, much worse this year. Here’s your top 5 going into the start of the season: Jeremy Guthrie, Adam Eaton (yes, him. He has work), Koji Uehara (I’m making a face), Alfredo Simon (Still making that face), and Mark Hendrickson. Combined W-L record last year in the Majors: 21-28. ERA: Roughly 5.00. Those names and those stats say it all. This team has a decent amount of minor league pitching talent, but those guys aren’t ready for 2009. And, frankly, shouldn’t have any options wasted on this year.

Offensively, this team can hit. You really have to start in the minors with this team though. Matt Wieters is a god. A mix of Chuck Norris, Paul Bunyan, and Johnny Bench. Forgive the hyperbole, because I don’t necessarily buy it. Look, he’s a great catcher and a beacon for the future for this team. But the stories about his grandness have to be exaggerated slightly. He should be up in the big leagues by the All-Star break, if not sooner. We’ll see what happens with him then. Outside of Wieters, the Orioles are a solid offensive club 1-4 with Brian Roberts, Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, and Aubrey Huff. After that, it’s a crapshoot. But hey, Felix Pie is finally an everyday player…

Quick bullpen note: Chris Ray will officially be the closer by late April. That’s all that really needs to be said there.

Boston Red Sox: Okay, this team is not the Orioles. Let’s get that out of the way right now. Boston’s rotation is the best in the AL in my opinion. Better than the Yankees. Two years ago, before injuries, Brad Penny was the Dodgers ace and the NL All-Star Game starter. Now he’s the #5 man in the Red Sox rotation. At the top, I’ll take Beckett, Lester, and Matsuzaka and stack them up against Sabathia, Burnett, and Wang any day, anywhere. Right now, Tim Wakefield is slated to be the 4th starter. Clay Buchholz will have a hold on a starting spot by mid-May (I’m making lots of date sensitive predictions on purpose. Well, kind of). Clay has worked on his delivery and his changeup has progressed even further. He should be ready for a huge bounce back year. Oh, and then in the bullpen, they have this guy named Jonathan Papelbon who is apparently an okay closer. The real question to me is the bridge between the starters and JohnnyPaps. Manny Delcarmen has hit his developmental ceiling, perhaps with a crash. Hideki Okajima was closer to what he should be last year than he was in 2007. Takashi Saito was a very good closer for the Dodgers, but his best pitching days are left there, in the past. I like Justin Masterson as an eighth inning set-up man. We’ll see if Terry Francona agrees.

Yes, offensively, the Sox are without Manny. But you’ll remember that they were also without Manny for the last two months of 2008 and the playoffs, which, if I’m not mistaken, they advanced to the ALCS in. I’m still high on Jacoby Ellsbury and think he’ll play better without Cavelli Crisp around. I don’t expect very much drop-off (significant drop-off) from Pedroia or Youkilis. And Jason Bay is an absolute stud who was made for this lineup. The questions are: David Ortiz’s health. JD Drew’s health. Mike Lowell and Jason Varitek’s age. And finally, Jed Lowrie or Julio Lugo. Call me crazy, and you will, but I start Lugo at short. He’s in a contract year. No better time to perform. If he fails in the first couple months, yank him. I’m confident that this lineup and the rotation can perform with a little uncertainty at short. That is, of course, if the other offensive questions fall into place.

New York Yankees: Would you believe it? The New York Yankees spent loads of money in the offseason on players they didn’t develop. Wow! Okay, are we done feigning surprise? Look, they do this. Every year. Can we get over it? It’s not like they’re buying World Series titles. If I’m not mistaken, they’re 0-for the millenium (millenium started in 2001). I’ve already stated that I like Boston’s rotation better. There’s more glamor in New York’s rotation, I’ll agree. However, if, say, Joba Chamberlin doesn’t perform very well or gets hurt, who do they plug into the rotation? Boston has Clay Buchholz, Justin Masterson, Michael Bowden (perhaps. Just go with me here), and future Hall-of-Famer John Smoltz. The Yankees have Kei Igawa, Phillip Hughes, and, yes, Ian Kennedy. I don’t like the lack of depth. I really don’t.

And the real questions with this team are with the offense!!! One of my coworkers was born and raised in Washington Heights. He bleeds Yankee blue. He worked for YES. In talking with him yesterday, he has no confidence in this lineup as a whole. Here’s my take: Jeter batting leadoff is a terrible idea. He’ll go down as one of my favorite players ever. I loved Jeter and still do. But any Yankee fan with a shred of honesty will tell you that his best days are gone. They just are. He’s an atrocious fielder and his bat is slowing. Now he’s batting leadoff? With Johnny Damon behind him? I’ll concede that Teixiera and a healthy Alex Rodriguez (other than this one here, I will NOT mention steroids, HgH, PEDs, etc in this preview. I’ve had enough) is an absolutely brutal 3-4. But after them, you have Hideki Matsui’s crumbing body, Jorge Posada’s aging body, Robinson Cano’s inability to live up to the hype, Xavier Nady’s average to slightly above average bat, and Brett Gardner. Oh, and for 2 months, you can substitute “Cody Ransom” for “Alex Rodriguez.”

When A-Rod comes back, I think they’ll be fine. This team though needs to stay healthy. If they don’t, they’ll be home in October, and not in the new Yankee Stadium. Unless they show the other games on the video board and the 25-man roster has a picnic in the outfield.

Tampa Bay Rays: Do you remember how they played in the World Series last year? Yea, it still makes very little sense to me. And it should to you. I think people overlooked the fact that their rotation is slightly above average, but caught fire in October, just like their bullpen did. I mean, really, Grant Balfour is not that good people. He’s just not. In terms of 2009, they’re going to stick with the 1-4 of James Shields, Scott Kazmir, Matt Garza, and Andy Sonnanstine. For a little while, we’ll have Jason Hammel (or some other failed top prospect…Jeff Niemann anyone? Wade Davis?) After that, you can expect David Price, who, if you couldn’t already tell from my typing tone, should be starting. Does it sound like I’m not that excited? Yea, I’m not.

I do however, like their lineup. If BJ Upton is healthy (huge IF) it’ll greatly improve how everyone else plays. A healthy Upton puts less pressure on the supremely underappreciated and at the same time supremely inconsistent Carl Crawford, which puts less pressure on the man-child, Evan Longoria, etc. etc. I love the addition of Pat Burrell on this team. I may not love Pat the Bat, but he gives them some much needed extra pop. It’s too bad he can’t play the outfield, because Gabe Gross will be occupying a space in Right.

Look, they were a great story last year. You know I loved it. I’ve been slurping the Rays for the last 5 years. However, they didn’t do it the way they should have. You don’t just go from the worst team in professional sports to in the World Series in the blink of an eye. Too much success can be a bad thing. And I think it’ll affect this team. Luckily for them, they’re in the same division as the Blue Jays and Orioles.

Toronto Blue Jays: They suck. They’re Roy Halladay, Alexis Rios, and the guy who managed them to their two World titles 17 and 16 years ago, respectively. Thanks to Roy Halladay, they don’t have the worst rotation in this division. If not for the him, they’d rival the O’s. Jesse Litsch, David Purcey, Ricky Romero (?), and Brad Mills (who I believe also serves as the Red Sox bench coach) round out this stellar rotation. Oh and then at the end of the bullpen, you have BJ Ryan’s contract (and if he stays healthy, BJ Ryan).

And hey, the lineup isn’t much better. I actually like Baltimore’s much more. I’m willing to concede that Vernon Wells will miss 40-60 games with injury this year. So he’s a scratch. If Adam Lind can hit in the big leagues, it’ll help them score some runs, but not a lot, as they’ll be no one on base. *Cough* Aaron Hill? Your number 2 hitter? Dreadful team.

Predicted Order of Finish:
1.) Boston
2.) New York
3.) Tampa Bay
4.) Baltimore
5. Toronto

(Picking this back up at 6:05 on Friday night. I have the Mets/Sox exhibition game on the computer).

AL Central:

Chicago White Sox: This division is mostly a toss-up, 1-5. I really wouldn’t be surprised if any of the five teams in this division won the division title this year. And, really, that’s not a compliment. I think there are 5 different teams in this division, each with enough questions that they could be a sub-70 win team this season. For the White Sox, their pitching rotation looks mostly similar to last year’s, with the addition of Bartolo Colon to the backend, after the Javier Vazquez trade to Atlanta. John Danks and Gavin Floyd both finally had the seasons last year that their old clubs (Texas and Philly, respectively) had hoped they would when they were top prospects. Neither are particularly stunning to watch pitch, but both were very effective for most of last year. At the top of the rotation is Mark Buehrle, who last year, very quietly posted a sub-4.00 ERA. And there’s Jose Contreras, who has resurrected his career in Chi-Town. This rotation is very effective. There aren’t any fireballers, but each guy gets the job done more often than not. Frankly, kind of boring.

Offensively, I think Chicago has questions. Dewayne Wise would be a great leadoff hitter, if he was playing in the International League. I can’t imagine him being a leadoff guy all season long. And I can’t see him being an everyday player either. At the hot corner, Josh Fields finally gets his chance to play everyday. For the last two years, I and many others, had expected Josh Fields to usurp Joe Crede with his talent, but it never happened. So frankly, I’m a little skeptical that Fields really is an everyday quality 3rd bagger. To me though, it comes down to their 3-5 hitters. If Carlos Quentin, Jermaine Dye, and Jim Thome can put up the numbers they did last year (an average of 35 HR, 95 RBI) the White Sox will contend. Frankly, I don’t think we can expect those numbers from all three again. Thome especially.

Cleveland Indians: Their rotation, frankly, sucks. Yes, they have the reigning AL Cy Young award winner in Cliff Lee as their ace. And while Lee was great last year, I don’t really see another 22-3, 2.54 ERA year from Cliff. And after Lee, there’s many, many more questions, like, “Is Fausto Carmona really any good?” and “Carl Pavano is still alive?” and my personal favorite “Anthony Reyes..he’s the one with the hat, right?” Kidding aside, Reyes performed well after leaving St. Louis last year. However this is a guy who struggles when he struggles. Reyes is not a bounce-back pitcher. He’s a fall-on-your-face guy. Which is why he spent so much time in AAA Memphis when he was with the Red Birds. He would have a bad outing and his confidence would flounder. Cleveland is the trendy pick to win this division, but really, I don’t see it with this rotation. And they’re a Kerry Wood DL stint in the bullpen away from having to find Joe Borowski. And that is not a good thing.

Offenisvely, if healthy, they’ll mash. The primary question, though is, “Where did Travis Hafner’s power go?” If Hafner hits (or doesn’t, rather) like last season, Cleveland will be in for another subpar, sub-.500 record. They need Hafner, in my opinion, because outside of Grady Sizemore and Jhonny Peralta, there’s not a lot of power there. Good young hitters (Ryan Garko and Shin-Soo Choo) at the bottom of the order will keep Cleveland at least relevant for most of this year, if they can get 20 HR out of Hafner and at least some pop from Victor Martinez.

Detroit Tigers: By far, the most disappointing team in Major League baseball last year. They were dreadful. God awful. Find a negative adjective and they were it. And the reason was their starting rotation. And it is no better this year. Justin Verlander couldn’t seem to put it together last year. He was bad. There’s no way to slice it otherwise. He’s the Tigers key player. If he can put it together like he did in 2006 and 2007, the Tigers will at least have a fighter’s chance of winning this division. It’s a lot to put on one player’s shoulders, but he’s more integral to his rotation than perhaps any other pitcher in the American League in my opinion. The rest of the rotation will include Armando Galarraga (the lone bright spot in this rotation last year), Edwin Jackson, Zach Miner, and Rick Porcello. Excited, Tigers fans? Edwin Jackson is expected to be the number 2 starter. So, yea, to sum up this section, they need Verlander to set a tone. Oh, and they’ll have Fernando Rodney closing out games, with Brandon Lyon as the 8th inning set up man.

Going into last season, I very incorrectly claimed that the Tigers lineup was the best in baseball and perhaps the best in my lifetime. I was wronger than wrong. They hit, but they did not hit like the 1927 Yankees. They return most of last year’s lineup, with some less than standout amendments. For example, Adam Everett is their everyday shortstop. So, they’ll be solid on the left side of the infield with Everett and third baseman Brandon Inge, they just won’t have any production out of that side (Last Year, a combined: 13 HR, 71 RBI). The top of the order, with Curtis Granderson, Placido Polanco, Magglio Ordonez, and Miguel Cabrera will be productive. The question is whether they can score enough runs to bailout their futile rotation.

Kansas City Royals: I’m very excited about this team. They’re likely a year away from being a true playoff contender. Their rotation, while not mind-blowing, is much closer to Chicago’s than Cleveland’s or Detroit’s. I love Zack Greinke. I think he can be a Cy Young quality pitcher this year. Gil Meche can be very effective for this team and is the kind of guy I’d want as my number 2 or 3 starter on a young team. There’s a lot to be excited about when it comes to Kyle Davies. And if Luke Hochevar can put together an improved campaign, they’ll be very good. (Horacio Ramirez as the fifth man doesn’t exactly have me jumping out of my seat). And at the back of the bullpen, they have a guy named Joakim Soria, who if you don’t follow baseball daily wouldn’t know was a top-line closer. 42 Saves and a 1.60 ERA last year. And a WHIP below 1.00. I love Joakim Soria.

A lot of youth litters the Royals batting order. Mark Teahan, Billy Butler, Alex Gordon, and Mike Aviles will have a lot of pressure on them (at least more than they’ve had in the past) to perform at a higher level. I love the addition of Coco Crisp. It’ll do him wonders to get out of Boston and to get away from the pressure of Red Sawks Nation. Flanking him in the outfield will be the supremely underrated David DeJesus. Look, he’s not Carlos Beltran. But DeJesus is a really effective everday player. He’s not a fantasy stud. But he’s a quality guy to put at the top of the order everyday. I also like the addition of Mike Jacobs from a strictly power standpoitnt for this team. There isn’t much seperation between Kansas City and Cleveland, Chicago, Detroit, and the next team, but there’s more to be excited about in western Missouri than in any of the other cities.

Minnesota Twins: Their rotation is similar to the White Sox. A bunch of effective guys. The only difference is that the Twins have a guy who can blow you away in Francisco Liriano. If we see the Liriano from his rookie year this year, there won’t be a ton of competition in the Central division. I expect a decent year from Liriano, if healthy. Say 13-15 wins. A 3.80 ERA. And though he’ll miss his first couple starts, the Twins have a future ace in Scott Baker who they just signed to a long term deal. So there’s a good amount to be excited about in Minny, in terms of pitching. And there’s that Joe Nathan guy.

I don’t love their lineup. I don’t really like it either. No power at all outside of Justin Morneau. They got 20 HR out of Jason Kubel last year. I don’t expect that this time around. Outisde of Morneau, I’m not excited about anyone in their lineup. And yes, I know, Joe Mauer. Here’s the thing about Mauer. I understand that he’s a catcher and any production from a catcher in today’s day is good. And yes, his .OBP is great. His average is great. Here’s two numbers: .426 and .451. That’s Joey Mauer’s slugging pct. the last two seasons. .457 for his career. So when you see his career .856 OPS, try not to get too excited. Accoding to baseball-reference.com, Robinson Cano is his most similar batter. Remember that face I was making earlier. I’m making it again. Oh, and his body breaks down more than a 1988 Ford Taurus. So all of the Mauer slurpers can relax a little. Oh, and they have the worst offensive outfield in the division with Denard Span, Delmon Young (I’m sorry, he’s just not that great. He isn’t), and either Mike Cuddyer or Carlos Gomez. That’s 26 combined HR last year for FOUR outfielders. Um, lots of speed though. So maybe we’ll have a few inside the park jobs.
Predicted Order of Finish:

1.) Minnesota Twins
2.) Chicago White Sox
3.) Kansas City Royals
4.) Cleveland Indians
5.) Detroit Tigers

(It’s now 8:50 on Saturday morning. I just came back from a measly 2 mile run that left me tired, winded, dizzy, and cold. I’m making that face again)

AL West

Los Angeles Angels: It’s fitting that we get to start here alphabetically, because this is where you have to start when ranking these teams. LA is a class well ahead of Oakland, Seattle, and Texas in terms of all-around construction. When healthy, (and perhaps even when not) the Angels have the divisions most solid rotation. John Lackey, though injury prone of late, is a bonafide ace. Ervin Santana finally put together a well-balanced year in 2008 (16-7, 3.49 ERA), Joe Saunders won games (17-7, 3.41 ERA), Kelvim Escobar’s last healthy season (2007) saw him finish with a 18-7 record and a sub-3.5 ERA. And Jered Weaver, who had an off year last year, is still a better number 5 starter than anyone else in the AL West. And maybe, maybe the American League. I like their rotation. I’d rank it right behind Boston’s and New York’s in the AL and just ahead of Tampa’s and Chicago’s. In the bullpen, yes they lost Francisco Rodriguez, but they replaced well with Brian Fuentes. And they’re set in the 7th and 8th innings with Scot Shields, who continues to be the league’s most consistent set-up man over the past 5 years and the young stud Jose Arredondo. Just a well rounded group of pitchers who bring different things to the table.

Offensively, there’s not much to complain about here either. While I wouldn’t bat Chone Figgins leadoff (we’ll see what Mike Scoscia’s intention is there) I still like him as an everyday player despite a subpar campaign last year. The addition of Bobby Abreu, say what you will about him, is a vast improvement over Garrett Anderson. Look for his addition to really help Vlad Guerrero, who “struggled” last year (he still hit 27 HR and drove in 90+ runs whlie hitting over .300) get back on track. With LA, the bottom of their batting order is the weak spot with Juan Rivera, Jeff Mathis or Mike Napoli, and Erick Aybar expected to fill the 7-9 holes. I think there’s plenty of pop ahead of them in the order. Certainly enough for there to be limited pressure to deliver in the clutch. All around, this is, as always, a well constructed ball club.

Oakland Athletics: If the Oakland A’s were a band in 2007, they’d be the Arctic Monkeys. If it was 2004, they’d be the Libertines. Hey, I have a question. You peeing your pants for the new Libertines album? How about the Arctic Monkeys? Same thing with the Oakland Athletics. I’m glad I’m starting with the pitching staffs, because Oakland’s is not good. Their ace is Justin Duchscherer (somehow pronounced Duke-Sure) who had a sub-2.00 ERA in the first half of last season, but came back to earth thereafter. After him, good luck listing the career accomplishments of Dana Eveland, Brett Anderson, Dallas Braden, and Sean Gallagher. They finished last year a combined 19-20 in Major League Baseball and none had an ERA below 4.00 (Sean Gallagher’s was a plus 5.00). I don’t dislike Oakland’s bullpen, with Joey Devine now likely to close out games and Santiago Casilla, Brad Ziegler, and Russ Springer in middle relief roles, but frankly, they’ll all have to be close to last year’s numbers for this staff to give the offense a fighting chance.

Now, to the reason why Oakland is a trendy pick.: Matt Holliday. Look, I love Matt Holliday. He’s a great guy. A total masher. I saw him hit a ball in batting practice last year that landed in the left field concourse at Nationals Park and bounce into a concession stand. The guy put up terrific numbers in Colorado. I won’t be the first person to say this, or the last, but look at the man’s splits. He’s a career .357/.423/.645 hitter at Coors Field. Everywhere else? .280/.348/.455. He also has 45 more strikeouts away from Denver (marginal as it is) in fewer games played. 40 fewer homers. Over 130 fewer RBI. The numbers are there. I hate to single out one player, but he’s the reason why lots of people like Oakland this year as a sleepert team. I’m just saying. If he hits .280, 22 HR, 80 RBI (what you can expect in a 162 game season (roughly) based on his road splits), in 2009, the only thing sleeping will be A’s fans by the All-Star break. Oh, and so that I don’t leave out Jason Giambi, I hope he enjoys his strikeouts race this year with Jack Cust. I’ll take Cust right now, but it’s certainly something to keep an eye on.

Seattle Mariners: An atrocious baseball team. Not really worth me talking about at any great length. I think Erik Bedard, now that he’s healthy, will have a bounce back year. And Felix Hernandez will continue to develop into the a very good Major League pitcher. After those two though, it’s hard to get excited about Ryan Rowland-Smith, Carlos Silva (wopping 6.46 ERA last season), and Jarrod Washburn (5-14 record in 2008). Outside of Bedard and Hernandez, the lone remaining bright spot is closer Brandon Morrow, though I don’t really think he’ll have much of a shot to save games with this team.

Griffey’s back! The reason why star players don’t go back and play for the team they came up with at the end of their careers is because they’re at the end of their careers. The Ken Griffey Jr. I remember in a Mariners’ uniform was awesome. An outstanding 5-tool player in the mold of Willie Mays. If he plays one game in a Mariners’ uniform this year, the last memory I’ll have of him is, well, an old-five tool player with no tools left, in the mold of Willie Mays at the end of his career. If Griffey Jr. wanted one last hurrah, a final shot at a title, he should have gone elsewhere. This is not how he wants to end his career. After his first at-bat at Safeco, it’ll be all downhill.

Offensively, Seattle needs to just fully rebuild. Ichiro is not the same player he was a few years ago. Adrian Beltre is, and that’s not a good thing. They have the strikeout machine Russell Branyan penciled in as their everyday first baseman. Mike Sweeney (yes, him) as a likely DH candidate. I like Jose Lopez and Yuniesky Betancourt up the middle. Both are good defensive players and are still developing at the plate. Betancourt will never be a stud hitter. But consider him the rich man’s Adam Everett. There’s a place for a guy like that. Outisde of those two though, I just can’t get excited. Seattle’s bright spot will come on June 15, when the Washington Nationals pass on Stephen Strasburg in the amatuer draft and they happily draft him.

Texas Rangers: If you thought Oakland’s pitching was bad, consider the combined stats of this year’s Texas rotation from 2008: 39-30, 5.00+ ERA. That’s right, the only guy with more than two big league decisions last year with an ERA below 5.00 was Vicente Padilla at a wopping 4.74. Kevin Milwood, their opening day starter, had a WHIP of 1.60. This rotation is atrocious. I have little more to add.

Now, they can at least hit. They’ll score lots of runs. I don’t see Texas playing many 2-1 games this year. Maybe once or twice, if they play in a cold driving rain, with the wind blowing towards home plate at about 45 MPH. The two studs are second baseman Ian Kinsler (whose name I always inexplicably type as “Kinsley”) and OF Josh Hamilton, the home run derby hero from last year. Look for that dynamic duo to become a trio this year, though, with Chris Davis as their everday first baseman. I big power hitting lefty, Davis could fill the void that has been left by Hank Blalock’s inability to hit over the last two years.

Hit as they may though, I just can’t envision this team scoring enough runs to balance out their awful pitching. They’re headed for another sub-.500 season.

Predicted Order of Finish:
1.) LA Angels
2.) Oakland Athletics
3.) Texas Rangers
4.) Seattle Mariners

(a huge drop off between LA and Oakland)

AL PLAYOFFS: (winner in BOLD)
Boston vs. Minnesota
Los Angeles vs. New York (wild card)

Boston vs. New York

AL Awards:
MVP: Jason Bay (BOS)
CY Young: Josh Beckett (BOS)
ROY: Matt Wieters (BAL)

(Picking this up at 2:45 on Saturday)
NL East:

Atlanta Braves: At first thought, I assumed that the Atlanta Braves were not a very good team. Then I looked at their roster. And you know what, they’re not nearly as bad as they were last year. From a pitching standpoint, I like the additions of Javier Vazquez and Derek Lowe. I think that Vazquez will see a marked increase in his production this year, coming off a 12-16 season with the Pale Hose. And Derek Lowe, well, he’s Derek Lowe. He’s an incredibly consistent performer. He’s pitched 180+ innings in each of the last seven seasons. His 14-11 record last year was better than it looks. He had a lowe (I’m amusing) ERA (3.24) and a decent WHIP number (1.13). And Atlanta’s rotation isn’t just Vazquez and Lowe. Jair Jurrjens is ready for a breakout year, after a very respectable one last year. The addition of Japanese veteran Kenshin Kawakami will help solidify the back end of the rotation. In terms of the number 5 spot, that could be occupied at any point of the year by Jorge Campillo or Tom Glavine. Neither would be a bad number 5 starter on most teams. My pitching concern with the Braves is their bullpen. Mike Gonzalez had an injury affected 2008 and if he were to go down, I don’t have a lot of confidence in Rafael Soriano to get the job done as this team’s closer. He is much better served as a set-up man.

Atlanta’s offense will not floor you. I can’t say that their big offseason pickup, Garrett Anderson, is going to have a career resurgence this year after struggling to muster 15 HR last year with a .293 average. If Larry Jones can stay healthy in ’09 and put up numbers even remotely similar to the ones he did before he got injured last year, Atlanta should be in decent shape. Bear in mind though that Jones hasn’t played in more than 135 games since the 2004 season. They’re not going to win 100 games this year. But don’t be surprised if they get between 85 and 90.

Florida Marlins: I’ll get this out of the way now. I think this team makes the playoffs this year. They’re flying mostly under the radar right now. However, if the backend of their rotation (Anibal Sanchez and the insufferably underachieving Andrew Miller) can improve their pitching from last year, then I will go so far as to say that I like their rotation better than anyone else in this division. Perhaps I’m a little drunk on young pitchers. Maybe it’s that the Marlins win the world series every 6 years (1997, 2003). But with a healthy Josh Johnson (a future Cy Young award winner), Ricky Nolasco (you may have missed it, but he was 15-8 with a 3.52 ERA last year and a K/9 ratio just under 8.0 with a 1.10 WHIP), and Chris Volstad at the front of the rotation, the sky is really the limit for the Marlins. They’ll either crash or skyrocket. I’m voting for the latter.

Do you want to put pressure on your top prospect? Do what the Marlins are doing. Move the game’s best young player (Hanley Ramirez. Don’t try to argue that point) out of the leadoff spot and replace him with a rookie. Florida says that Cameron Maybin is ready for the big time. There’s no better way to prove that than make him your leadoff hitter. He hit .500 in 8 games with Florida last year after September callups. Plus, expect a huge boost in RBI total for HanRam batting in the 3 hole. Keep in mind that 3 Marlins hit 29+ HR last year. And they had 3 other guys in double digits. My advice, buy low on the Fish.

New York Mets:They’re Sports Illustrated’s pick to win the World Series this year. And that’s fine. It’s just not right. I’m going to break from the trend here and talk about bullpen first. JJ Putz…not something to be excited about Mets fans. He has exactly one good season to his name in his career. And that was as closer of the Seattle Mariners. Not the set-up man for a team with World Series expectations that so happens to play their games a good 45 minute subway ride from Midtown Manhattan. And if you’re expecting 60+ saves out of Frankie Rodriguez, please, by all means, continue to think that. I’ll sell high on that idea. Do I think he’ll be an atrocious waste of money? No, not at all. He’ll probably pick up 35-40 saves this year. I do, however, look forward to how he bounces back the first time he walks the bases loaded at Citi Field and the fans start grumbling. The rotation is nearly the exact same as last season, except that Livan Hernandez is somehow the best option for the 5 spot. None of Oliver Perez, John Maine, or Mike Pelfrey have me particularly excited for 2009. Johan Santana will do his thing. But the Mets are really going to need one of the previous 3 to step up their game in a big, big way if they want to win the World Series this year. If I had to bet on it being one of them, I’d bet on none.

I’m not too high on the Mets lineup either. With the big four (Reyes, Wright, Beltran, and Delgado) you pretty much know what you’re getting. It’s the other 4 guys (Brian Schneider, Daniel Murphy, Fernando Tatis/Ryan Church, and Luis Castillo) that are the concern. The only guy I have any faith in is Church, who I think can be a successful doubles hitter in the expansive gaps at the new Citi Field. Castillo is about 5 steps behind where he was two years ago. Schneider was never a great threat at the plate. Murphy is still young. And Fernando Tatis’s career high point was that time he hit two grand slams in one inning, which is a great trivia answer, but not exactly something to hang your career on. You’d guess that I like Atlanta better than the Mets this year and that wouldn’t be necessarily true. I’m a little bitter, first off about the Mets pursuit of K-Rod and that awful Putz trade. And second, I’m more positive about Atlanta because I think they clearly improved. I can’t say that about the Metropolitans.

Philadelphia Phillies:I think the rotation is overrated. Hamels is an ace, yes. Brett Myers is an inconsistent wife-beater. Jamie Moyer is in his mid-40’s. Joe Blanton looks more like Charlie Manuel than a pitcher should. Oh, and Chan Ho Park is somehow the 5th starter on a reigning World Series champion (Carlos Carrasco will have that spot by June). The thing is though, this team has to be built on offense. Steve Carlton, Walter Johnson, Bob Gibson, and Satchel Paige could be in this rotation with Hamels and they’d still put up mediocre numbers pitching at the ATM Machine.

And this team is built on offense. And improved it in the offseason. Look, Pat Burrell is a good power hitter and has a very good career OBP of .367. But he’s also had trouble in his career advancing and driving in RISP. Raul Ibanez, on the other hand, may lack the power of Burrell and the .OBP, but he has been a better hitter in his career with RISP. And there will be plenty of RISP in this lineup. 1-5, they’re loaded and nearly unstoppable. They have speed (Rollins and Victorino). They have power (Howard and Utley). They have a solid all-around hitter (Ibanez). And frankly, the bottom of the order, with Jayson Werth and Pedro Feliz isn’t exactly terrible. Questionable pitching or not, Philly is the favorite in the East.

Washington Nationals: Not the favorite in the East, but an improved club, at least somewhat. I really liked the addition of Scott Olsen. He needed a change after having immaturity issues in South FLA. I’m also very happy to see that Jordan Zimmerman will likely be on the opening day roster. He is (until the Nats draft Stephen Strasburg. At least they better) the future of this rotation. And really, while John Lannan may not be Lefty Grove, he was an effective pitcher last year on the worst team in baseball. He even had an ERA under 4, albeit with a losing record that wasn’t really all his fault. Expect the rotation to be rounded out by Daniel Cabrera (lots of walks, lots of strikeouts, lots of yelling), and Collin Balestar, who I think can put together a decent line this year.

Even offensively, I think Washington will be better. I mean, they have to be. Only Ryan Zimmerman hit more than 20 homers for the Nats last year. Adding Adam Dunn will hurt this team defensively in ways I can’t even quantify. But he’ll hit 30 homers. He’ll strike out 200 times and he may be a malignant tumor in the clubhouse, but he’ll likely produce what he’s been doing his entire career in terms of power. Look for Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes to continue to develop at the plate as well.

Look, they ain’t going to finish in 4th, 3rd, 2nd, or 1st. But if I can guarantee one thing in this incredibly long post, it’s this: the Washington Nationals will not be the worst team in baseball in 2009.
Predicted Order of Finish:
1.) Philadelphia Phillies
2.) Florida Marlins
3.) New York Mets
4.) Atlanta Braves
5.) Washington Nationals

(Sunday 9:45)
NL Central:
Chicago Cubs: This is easily, on paper, the best team in this division. They’re not bulletproof. But if all goes right on the north side of Chicago, the Cubbies should be back in the playoffs. And who knows, maybe they’ll win a series this time around.

From a pitching standpoint, the Cubs are who they were last year. Not a lot has changed here, other than Kevin Gregg replacing Kerry Wood in the closer’s role. The addition of Jake Peavy would have made them a favorite in this division. I have a hunch though that they’ll sign Ben Sheets soon, as he rehabs (As a sidebar, it’s amazing to me that someone hasn’t offered Ben Sheets a 2 or 3 year deal for low money. I know that he’s oft-injured, but my goodness, when he’s healthy, he’s one of the 10 best starters in baseball. Yet Kyle Lohse keeps getting work). The popular opinion about Cubs ace Carlos Zambrano is that he’s in a decline. And really, his 14-6 record with a 3.91 ERA last season supports that theory. Yet there were times last year that Zambrano was, well, Zambrano. I don’t expect much more of a drop-off from last year’s numbers. One guy who I do expect a drop off with is Ryan Dempster, who last year had a career year (17-6, sub-3.00 ERA. 8.1 K/9 ratio). If Cubs fans are expecting similar numbers from Dempster this year, I just hope they’re not holding their breath for it. You can have hope. Not blind hope, though. For Chicago’s rotation though, their key guy is Rich Harden and all the different parts of him that so rarely seem to be in tip-top shape. You’ve got to pencil him in, every year, for at least 2 15-day DL stints. If he can keep that number below 2 this year, I can’t see anyone catching Chicago in the Central.

Offensively, not a lot has changed either. It’s clear that the Cubs thought they were good enough last year, but just had a bad series against LA in round 1. The only change is the addition of Milton Bradley to right field, replacing Reed Johnson, who now moves to a position he is better suited for, that being pinch hitter. The catalyst for this team is Alfonso Soriano, who had a see-saw year in 2008 that was marred by nagging injuries. Soriano is not a prototypical leadoff guy (I’d frankly rather see the power-less Ryan Theriot there) in that he doesn’t walk very much (still). Even I’d like to see him take some more pitches this year. This, however, is not a team that relies on one guy offensively. This lineup is very solid (probably the NL’s best). They should be back where they were last year, as the front runners.

Cincinnati Reds: For some reason, I’ve heard a few people say, “Look out for Cincinnati this year.” Which is strange, because Ryan Freel is gone, so we don’t have to worry about the Reds driving under the influence of alcohol. I can’t really think of any other reason to look out for the Reds. Their pitching is not very good. It’s not even good. While their ace, Edinson Volquez, posted good numbers for the 2008 campaign, please do yourself a favor and look at his pre-and post All-Star game numbers. Night and day. Maybe he hit the rookie wall. Maybe he pitches in the MLB equivalent of a Little League stadium. We shall see what the answer is this year. I’m voting for the latter. Beyond Volquez, the only thing to have any excitement about is Johnny Cueto and his potential for a bounce back year after a shaky rookie campaign. Don’t expect a 20 win season. But perhaps he’ll lower that 4.81 ERA.

The real reason why people think Cincinnati can be a sleeper team though is their very young lineup. And it’s somewhat understandable. They had 4 20+ HR guys last season (and Alex Gonzalez hit 16). A lot of pressure will fall on the shoulders of Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, who both had very good rookie years, especially Votto, who quietly hit .297, 24 HR, 84 RBI. The one thing that jumps out at me about Cincinnati is their low RBI totals though. Of all the guys with 20+HR last year, none posted over 85 RBI. The next closest guy to Votto’s 84 was Brandon Phillips with 78. The hope is that offseason pickup Willy Taveras can bounce back from an atrocious 2008, where he hit .251/.308/.296 (albeit with 68 stolen bases). If he can hover around .300 and have a remotely acceptable .OBP and put up similar stolen base numbers, the offense will have a shot at boosting those RBI totals with fewer solo bombs and more two and three run shots. But that’s a lot to ask from a guy with a career .331 OBP. Really, I don’t know how much of sleeper the Reds are.

Houston Astros: Maybe Cincy is a sleeper because all of the other teams in this division, beyond the Cubs and Cardinals are somewhere between bad and terrible. Houston, for example, fills out their rotation beyond Roy Oswalt with Wandy Rodriguez, Russ Ortiz, Mike Hampton, and Brian Moehler. That’s all I need to say, really.

Houston’s lineup is significantly better than their rotation. The Astros are really the older version of the Reds. They drive in more runs (thanks to the Big Puma and Carlos Lee and the fact that Kaz Matsui actually gets on base (.354 OBP last year)). There’s certainly some balance in Houston’s lineup. They have speed (Michael Bourn and Matsui). They have power (Hunter Pence, Berkman, and Lee). And they have former steriod users (Pudge Rodriguez and Miguel Tejada). Much like Cincy, the Astros will score runs this year. And just like Cincy, they won’t stop anyone else from doing so.

Milwaukee Brewers: No team got any worse this past offseason than the Brewers. They lost CC Sabathia to the Yankees. Then didn’t make any real effort to keep Ben Sheets, despite his injury troubles. So they start the 2009 campaign with Jeff Suppan as their ace and a world of pressure on Yovani Gallardo to win 20 games. And he’ll have to if the Brewers are going to return to the postseason. Because they follow Gallardo with Manny Parra, Dave Bush, and the immortal Braden Looper. Consider that their biggest offseason pickup was Trevor Hoffman and he’ll start the year on the DL. This team is going nowhere fast, no matter how well they can hit.

They can hit well though. Are you noticing a trend in this division? Teams with no pitching and tons of offense. This is why it should be a cake walk for the Cubs this year. They’re the only team with a starting rotation you can depend on to get some stops. In terms of the Brewers, look, it’s more of what you’ve been reading with the Reds and Astros. 5 guys with 20+ HR last year. Two more guys in double digits. 3 players with 90+RBI. This team can mash with the best of them. And I expect Prince Fielder to have a bounce back year this year. Considering that he hit 34 HR and 102 RBI last year, that’s pretty scary. The same question applies here though. They’ll score, but can they stop anyone else from doing so?

Pittsburgh Pirates: There is no worse team in baseball. There are two reasons to watch the Pirates this year. The first is PNC Park. And the second is to see Andrew McCutcheon and envision him in the uniform of your favorite team. I’m not cheaping out here by not reviewing this team. They’re not worth your time and not worth mine. I’ll just give you their projected opening day lineup:

Nyjer Morgan
Freddy Sanchez
Nate McClouth
Ryan Doumit
Adam LaRoche
Andy LaRoche
Brandon Moss
Jack Wilson

Not convinced? Starting rotation:

Paul Maholm
Ian Snell
Zach Duke
Ross Ohlendorf
Jeff Karstens

St. Louis Cardinals: The only team I can see challenging the Cubs this year. Their rotation is not stellar, but they have two guys in Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright who can win 16+ games this year, if healthy. And kidding about Kyle Lohse aside, he wins games. He’s not pretty, or even effective, but he gets the job done somehow. Same holds true for Todd Wellemeyer. I won’t go out of my way to watch any Cardinals games this year. But their pitching is certainly good enough to hang around in a very, very bad division.

Like seemingly everyone else in this division, the Cardinals real strength is their offense. 4 20+ HR guys last year. I don’t really expect the same from Ryan Ludwick and Troy Glaus this year, but I think both have 20 HR potential. Oh, and then there’s Albert Pujols. He hit .357 last year. 37 HR. 116 RBI. With a nagging shoulder injury. He’s amazing. He’s the only reason to watch the Cardinals regularly, really. People take him for granted and it’s sad. They guy hasn’t hit below .314 in a season in his career. He has played at least 143 games every year of his career. Never less than 32 HR. Never less than 100 RBI. For his career, he’s a .334/.425/.624 hitter. There should be no argument about who the best player in baseball is. Hanley Ramirez is the best player in the 25 and under category. For all around skill though, no one, at any age today in baseball, can touch Albert Pujols.

Predicted Order of Finish
1.) Chicago Cubs
2.) St. Louis Cardinals
3.) Houston Astros
4.) Milwaukee Brewers
5.) Cincinnati Reds
6.) Pittsburgh Pirates

(Hopefully wrapping this up. Starting this final segment at 2:45 on Sunday)

NL West:
Arizona Diamondbacks: The strength of this team is in their pitching and their offensive youth. When you talk about the D’Backs pitching, it has to start with ace Brandon Webb. He has finished first or second in NL Cy Young voting each of the last 3 seasons. He’s pitched in over 216 innings each of the previous 4 years (much like Dan Haren, their number 2). He’s just a steady rock. His strikeout numbers are rarely mind defying. He doesn’t have the stuff that a few other pitchers in this division have. Webb’s bread and butter is his sinker. When it’s sinking, so are the hopes of the opposition (I know, that was a cute line). The addition of Dan Haren last offseason was a good one for this team. Haren’s a very underrated pitcher. Rarely is he mentioned as one of the top guys in baseball. However, in the previous 3 seasons, he’s 45-30, with an average of 190 strikeouts per year and a respectable 3.50 ERA. And he’s getting better. His statistics have grown each of the past 3 seasons. And he’s only 28 years old. And if it’s youth you like in your rotations, you’ll love Max Scherzer. He’s 24 and if you project what he did in his rookie year last year over a 162 game schedule, you have numbers similar to that of Dan Haren’s. Jon Garland and Doug Davis are expected to round out the rotation for Arizona. I don’t dislike either. I actually think this shift could be good for Garland, who seems to always have a high ERA, but also wins games (hasn’t had a season without double digit win totals since 2002). Davis’s numbers last year weren’t stellar, but I’ll remind you that he had cancer. So we’ll cut him a break.

A lot of people forget (including myself until very recently) that Arizona was a near wire-to-wire division leader last year and LA only overtook them in the final two weeks of the season. The problem for this team was strikeouts. That’ll happen when your core players are under 26 years of age and arguably your best player is 20. That 20 year old is Justin Upton. A lot is expected this year of the former top draft pick and brother of Tampa outfielder BJ. He started out on fire last year before injury slowed him. It would do wonders for this team if he could just hit about .300. Only one guy (Conor Jackson) did that last year and he actually finished right at .300. 4 of their eight position players batted below .270 last year. And their .OBP as a team was not terribly good. Offensively, I think that Arizona is a year away from World Series contention. They may contend for a division title this year, but don’t expect them to make a distant run in the postseason.

Colorado Rockies: This rotation was made for the NL Central, really. They brought in ten pitchers in the offseason to fill out the starting staff. They lost their ace, Jeff Francis, early when he opted for shoulder surgery. The rotation heading into the year is expected to be headed by Aaron Cook, who is another pitcher who despite not having great stuff, wins games. 16-9 last year and a sub-4.00 ERA, on a subpar team. You may not have noticed that another Rockie starter last year had a sub-4.00 ERA. Ubaldo Jimenez responded to his strong 2007 postseason by very quietly having a respectable second year. After Jimenez and Cook though, it gets a little, um, dicey. Jorge de la Rosa, Jason Marquis, and Franklin Morales. If none of those 3 names has you opening your mouth in excitement, you’re not alone. Morales is a young lefty who put together a fairly strong spring. de la Rosa and Marquis are neither young, nor were they consistent in Spring Training. But hey, Marquis can swing the bat. And at Coors Field, that could actually matter.

And they may need Marquis to swing the bat a few times, because there is a gaping hole when you look at this lineup. The hole was previously filled by Matt Holliday. He’s gone now and replaced in left by Seth Smith, who hit 4 HR last year as a utility man and has a less than grand career total of, well, 4 dingers in 131 career plate appearances. Mark McGwire he’s not. In fact, on a team that was so power heavy for so long, there’s a lot of missing power in this club. Brad Hawpe and Garrett Atkins are your 20 HR guys from last year and while both are very adequate hitter, neither can carry a team. The hope is that Troy Tulowitzki can do that. The 2007 NL Rookie of the Year runner-up was dreadful in every way last year. He couldn’t stay healthy. He couldn’t hit. His .332 OBP was a sizable regression from his rookie year’s .359 OBP. But looking at this lineup, I think a lot of the Rockies hope will fall on Tulo’s shoulders. Mentally, he’s perfectly capable of handling the pressure. All accounts are that he’s a mature-beyond his years player. The question is if her can recapture the magic that made him a hero in 2007’s World Series run.

Los Angeles Dodgers: By all accounts, the best team in the division. But then you look at their pitching. Their opening day starter? Hiroki Kuroda, who was 9-10 last year with a less than great 5.7 K/9 ratio. He’s followed up with Randy Wolf. At this point, it’s not looking too good, but then, alas, the unknown. The two young studs, Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley are the keys to this team. The bullpen is good enough to get the job done. You have a good idea as to what to expect with Kuroda and Wolf. It’s Kershaw, Billingsley, and to a much, much less significant extent, Jason Schmidt, who I don’t think has thrown a meaningful pitch since the turn of the century. Kershaw and (more so) Billingsley showed flashes of brilliance last year. The latter was perhaps the best pitcher in the National League in the second half not named Tim Lincecum. Kershaw was slightly inconsistent in his time up with the Dodgers last year, but still managed to post a .500 record and a nice 8.4 K/9 ratio. If Kershaw and Billingsley hit their potential this year, the Dodgers will be the runaway favorite in the West.

Did you hear? Manny Ramirez is back in LA. I know, I’m thrilled too. Word out of LA is that after Manny finished being you know who this offseason, and finally signed a contract, he’s been a camp rat and not in a bad way. Manny hasn’t left the Dodgers Spring Training camp. He shows up at 6:30 a.m. every morning to run and condition. See, Manny’s a genius. A mad scientist if you will. While a lot of people think that this is probably his last big contract, he knows that he’ll get paid if he performs over the next two years. Even if it’s a one year deal, if Manny is still hitting .330, 35 HR, 110 RBI at the age of 38, someone is going to give him $18-20 million in a one year deal. Why not stay in shape? Manny is going to have a great year at the plate. Don’t be shocked if he hovers around .400 for a while in the first half. You’ve seen the list of National League pitchers in this preview. The NL is far, far more thin in pitching than the AL. Manny’s going to feast for at least 150 games this year on people like Jorge de la Rosa and Jason Marquis.

The Dodgers are more than just Manny though. Their core of young hitters, Matt Kemp, Russell Martin, James Loney, and Andre Eithier should continue to develop. I don’t really think any of the 4 have hit their ceiling just yet, though all are close. The time is now for LA to win the World Series. And they just might this year.

San Diego Padres: The National League’s version of the Toronto Blue Jays. Except, imagine that Toronto has alienated Roy Halladay and are very open about the fact that they’re trying to trade him. Now make Alex Rios a left handed power hitter and…Viola! You have the 2009 San Diego Padres.

Jake Peavy will be gone by the trade deadline. Where? I don’t know. Maybe Chicago (NL). Maybe New York (NL). LA (AL)? We’ll see. Until then, the Padres have an unhappy ace, a shaky pitching staff, and a god awful lineup with zero on-base ability and even less speed. First, the pitching. Past Peavy, you have Chris Young, Cha-Seung Baek, Kevin Correia, and a guy named Walter Silva who may or may not be a distant uncle of Amanda. I’ll concede that Young is a decent Major League starter. After that, I’ll only concede that those other 3 guys will be lucky to win a combined 10 games this year (they won a combined 9 Major League starts last year).

Quick, of the current 2009 San Diego Padres, what projected starter had the most stolen bases last year? That would be projected leadoff hitter Jody Gerut with 6. And no, there is not a number missing in front of the “6.” Combined, this year’s projected lineup had 15 stolen bases last year. That’s 4 times less than Willy Taveras. 15. And that would be fine if this team walked, except that they had the Major League’s worst On-Base Pct. They also had the fewest runs and third most stolen bases. Which would be okay if they retooled in the offseason. Do you count the addition of David Eckstein as retooling?

San Francisco Giants: I love Tim Lincecum. Who doesn’t? He was the most dominant starter in the Majors last year. Bar none. He won 18 games, had a K/9 ratio over 10 (AS A STARTER) and an ERA below 3.00 (2.62 to be exact). I expect nothing less from him this year. The question for the Giants is if the rest of their rotation can step it up. You have the two young guys in Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez and the two veterans in Randy Johnson and Barry Zito. First, the young guys. Cain needs to get his walks down. He worked on that last year. His 8-14 record was not indicitive of his success or lack thereof. He was better than that record. Sanchez was not better than his 9-12 record. He had a very high K/9, especially for a guy without electric stuff. I expect a better record from the 26 year old Sanchez. As for the old(er) guys, Johnson somehow continues to pitch decently. He was 11-10 last season. His ERA was below 4.00. He’s not going to be early 2000’s Randy Johnson, but an 11-10 season will get the job done. Zito is the real question. My cheap response? Who knows. I can’t guess what he’s going to do. He seemed to put it together somewhat in the second half of last year. A healthy Noah Lowry would be great, but until that happens, it’s Zito or bust.

San Francisco’s lineup is full of names. Literally. All of their players have names. You just probably don’t know a lot of them. No one on this roster hit over 20 homers last year. Bengie Molina came closest with 16. There’s a real power dearth here. Very simply, they’ll go as far as their young guys. Pablo Sandoval is getting a lot of pub heading into the season. Maybe too much pub for a guy who hasn’t done a single thing in the Majors, other than post decent numbers in 145 at-bats last year. This year, it’s all on him. Expect to hear the name Fred Lewis a bit more this season. The Giants projected number 3 hitter has the tools to be a 25/25 guy at some point in his career. He’s still young and not developed enough to hit 25 HR, but he’ll be better than his 9 from 2008.

I was originally very high on this team, going so far as to say that they’ll win the West this year. That won’t happen. But the parts are there, both in San Francisco and in their system. The pitching should be very good. The offense just isn’t there yet. Yet.

Predicted Order of Finish:
1.) Los Angeles Dodgers
2.) Arizona Diamondbacks
3.) San Francisco Giants
4.) Colorado Rockies
5.) San Diego Padres

NL Playoffs (Winner in BOLD)
Chicago Cubs vs. Florida Marlins (wild card)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs

NL Awards:
MVP: Manny Ramirez
Cy Young: Tim Lincecum
Rookie of the Year: Cameron Maybin

WORLD SERIES: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Boston Red Sox:
It’s a little bit me dreaming and a little bit possible. Offensively, the Dodgers are comparable in the NL to the Cubbies. LA has Manny though and Chicago doesn’t. I really do think he’ll be the difference for the Dodgers in the National League. They have enough pitching to get to the playoffs. The bullpen is, in my opinion, solid. There will be a lot of pressure on Jonathan Broxton to take control of the closer’s role with Takashi Saito gone. I have faith that the rotund pitcher can close the door enough to hold onto the job. On paper, the Dodgers are the strongest all-around team in the NL. The defense is improved (thanks to Orlando Hudson, mostly) and the younger hitter are older, if that makes sense.

For the Red Sox, it’ll be about pitching. I’m interested to see what role John Smoltz is going to play on this team, if any. I’m also interested to see what Clay Buchholz will do when he’s eventually called up to replace Tim Wakefield. I think there are more questions with Boston than with the Dodgers. Ortiz’s health. Drew’s health. Ellsbury’s bounce-back-ability after a subpar 2008. You may have rolled your eyes, but I expect Jason Bay to carry this team offensively. Maybe he doesn’t have the personality to carry a World Series quality team. But he does have the bat. In terms of how he will handle the pressure, I don’t think he will hear the Manny talk as much this year as last year. Well, until they meet in the World Series.

Ultimately, I like the Dodgers to win in 6. Kershaw and Billingsley will make the pitching difference. And don’t be surprised if Jake Peavy is pitching for this team come World Series time. And offensively, well, it’s just Manny being Manny.