You might think that it’s way too early to take inventory of the 2010 College Football season. But I’d argue, “Hey, we’re 1/4 of the way through the season. And 1/4 is a fraction that people deem important for some reason.” And so with that, let’s take a quick conference-by-conference look at the landscape, along with some discussion of who’s a real contender for a January trip to the desert, starting in boring-ville:
ACC
Wasn’t this supposed to be Virginia Tech’s conference to win? Or Miami’s? Or Florida State’s? Well, each of them has lost at least one game (two for Virginia Tech, including one to a very good FCS team in James Madison.) and looked pretty awful in doing so. Only two teams in the entire conference find themselves undefeated at this point (NC State and Boston College). The Wolfpack appear to be the better of those two, led by the very underrated Russell Wilson at QB. I was very tempted to go out on a limb and take the Pack as my ACC Other Division champion in my preview, but went chalk with the ‘Noles. I’m rethinking that a little now, though we’ll find out if NC State is for real after they finish a three week stretch with games against Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and Boston College. The defense has been good so far, albeit not against the best competition. Based on talent (and an easy conference schedule), Florida State still has to be this division’s favorite, for now.
Georgia Tech has the biggest conference win, in beating North Carolina on Saturday and find themselves in the driver’s seat for the Coastal crown. I still like Virginia Tech, as crazy as that sounds. They have an experienced quarterback, two great running backs and a young defense that will get better (because they have to). Georgia Tech does not have the offensive dynamism that Virginia Tech does. I see the Hokies bouncing back this week by laying a whopping on Boston College. And don’t count out the Hurricane’s, even though their offense did not look good against Ohio State. We’ll find out a lot about the Canes on Thursday in Pittsburgh.
I’m not going to revise my conference championship picks, but I will point out that it won’t matter because this conference is horrendous. One win against AQ teams from the other 5 conferences. (North Carolina State over Cincinnati). No team in this conference is a national title contender. Not even close.
Big East
I promise this will get interesting soon. There are only two undefeated teams in the Big East (West Virginia and Rutgers) and one of them nearly lost to Marshall, while the other’s statement win this year was a 5 point victory over Florida International. Much like the ACC, only 1 team has a victory over an AQ team (West Virginia’s over Maryland). Most people’s trendy preseason sleeper pick (UConn) lost by 14 to Temple on Saturday. And last year’s champion (Cincinnati) is about to start the season 1-3 after a trip to Norman, Oklahoma on Saturday. So this isn’t quite the Big East’s year.
Having seen every single play of Pittsburgh’s season (one on TV and once in person), I’m still leaning in their direction for the conference championship, but where I would have argued that they were a dark horse in the national championship hunt back in August, I’d look like a doofus if I tried to argue that now. Inconsistent quarterbacking play, combined with the slow start by sophomore RB Dion Lewis have made Pittsburgh look very beatable (and in the case of Utah, beatable). Pitt’s worth will be proven on Thursday against Miami. They’ll lose that one, but it won’t make a difference once they start playing the likes of Louisville and South Florida.
Big XII
Finally, a (sort of) real conference. The shocker on shock street so far, to me, has to be Kansas State who is 3-0, with two victories over AQ teams (UCLA and Iowa State). However, they’re in the Big XII north and Nebraska looms large. I sold the Huskers very short in my season preview. They’re very for real (I know, good English). I had my doubts about them traveling to Seattle to play Washington on Saturday, but the Huskers took the Huskies and the overrated Jake Locker to the woodshed. The defense is just as good as I thought, but the offense, led by freshman Taylor Martinez is electric. Nebraska is back and Nebraska is darned good.
In the south, Texas and Oklahoma have started 3-0, but the real surprise to me is Oklahoma State, who leads the nation in passing offense and is second in scoring, against 3 FBS opponents. And yes, they’re all terrible (Washington State, Tulsa, and Troy), but still, kudos to Mike Gundy who is doing this without Zac Robinson and Dez Bryant. OK State’s first test comes next Thursday in a game against also 3-0 Texas A&M, who just managed to squeak by Florida Int’l. on Saturday.
But, again, as always, this comes down to Saturday, October 2. Oklahoma and Texas. The only difference now is that I don’t think the winner of that game has the inside track on the conference title. Right now, I give that to Nebraska.
Big Ten
Ohio State. I didn’t want to believe in Terrelle Pryor. But I have to. Ohio State is too good. I can’t seem them losing a game on that schedule, except maybe, just maybe, they don’t take Iowa seriously enough when they travel to Iowa City in late November, a week before the Michigan game. I don’t expect the Wolverines to be a challenge going forward. Yes, Shoelace Robinson is a great story and he’s the Heisman front-runner right now (more on this later). But Michigan had a lot of defensive trouble with the Massachusetts Minutemen and there is not the offensive balance to survive a middle-of-the-pack conference. If Michigan was in the ACC or the Big East, I could see them finishing 10-2. In the Big Ten, they’re closer to an 8-4 team. But that’s an improvement.
I also don’t expect Wisconsin to be a challenge. Call me cynical, but I have a hard time believing in a team that comes within a blocked PAT of needing overtime, at home, against the 8th best team from the Pac-10. Wisconsin can run the ball, but put 7 in the box and you’ve got them beaten. No elite athletes to contend with guys like Shoelace and Pryor.
Iowa is the interesting team because from what I saw on Saturday, they’re not ready for the big-time (not that they ever are). Sure they were playing about 1700 miles from Iowa City in 101 degree Tucson, Arizona against a darn good football team. But those are games that you’re supposed to win. Ohio State would have won that game (though Ohio State would never schedule something as ludicrous as a late game at Arizona in September). Iowa is a good football team, but they’re Capital One Bowl good. They are not Rose Bowl good and, unlike Michigan, but just like Wisconsin, there’s no potential for that to happen.
Pac-10
My favorite conference. Yes, the cachet is not to the level of the SEC. The hitting isn’t as hard and the skill players aren’t quite as fast. But there’s some good football out west, if you can find a way to stay awake past 11 p.m.
Any Pac-10 review has to start with Oregon, who has set the world on fire, averaging 63 points a game. And the reason why they’re so good? Their rushing ability. Oregon is averaging 380 yards per game on the ground. If your eyes just fell out of your skull, then I did my job. 380 YPG is an astounding number for a major conference program that can also throw the football (231 YPG). Air Force is averaging 399 YPG, but they’re also 116th in passing. Oregon is 49th. And yes, they’ve played a bad New Mexico team, a down Tennessee team, and Portland State, but my gosh, they’re racking up over 600 yards of offense per game. Oregon plays at Arizona State on Saturday before a showdown in Eugene on October 2 against Stanford.
The Cardinal possess my favorite quarterback in college football, Andrew Luck. Luck’s mechanics are flawless, much like his 2010 numbers thus far: 45 of 70, 674 Yards, 10 TD, 0 INT. Stanford hasn’t kept it close with anyone so far, with two 35 point wins (Sacramento State and UCLA) and a 44 point win over Wake Forest on Saturday. The Cardinal have an intriguing game on Saturday in South Bend against the Fighting Irish. If they and Ducks can make it to October 2nd unscathed, we may be looking at the Game of the Year in college football.
Beyond Stanford and Oregon, though Arizona and USC are lurking. USC, of course, has no postseason eligibility and is irrelevant to this conversation. Arizona, however, has a statement win under their belt (Iowa) and an NFL arm under center in Nick Foles. And, to boot, they have the nation’s 9th best defense, statistically, under the guide of criminally insane head coach Mike Stoops. I expect Arizona to be 8-0 when they travel to Palo Alto to play Stanford on November 6. And if they can win that, their reward is back-to-back games against USC and at Oregon. No small feat.
SEC
I’m going to get it out of the way now and just say that I was dead wrong in my touting of Florida. I thought that they could play through or around John Brantley as he developed into their quarterback. They can’t and he won’t. He does not look to have it. He resembles Chris Leak early on in his tenure. And that is magnified more by the man he’s replacing (Tim Tebow) and what he accomplished at Florida. The offense looks lost. The skill players don’t look skilled. And you can only rely on your defense so much before you run into a team like Alabama (October 2) and get the snot beaten out of you. Right now, Florida does not look like a team that can beat Alabama. Or LSU. Or Florida State for that matter.
South Carolina, on the other hand, looks like the best of the SEC East. The road isn’t easy for the Gamecocks (at Auburn this Saturday and home against Alabama in two weeks). But they look like a team that can win with defense, and that’s the SEC mantra. So long as Stephen Garcia can protect the football and they continue to get production out of Marcus Lattimore, they’ll be the Eastern representative in Atlanta in early December.
Out West, it’s a race for second place. There are not enough good things I can say about Alabama and how great they look. They’re 17th in Passing Offense and 13th in Rushing Offense. They’re 9th in scoring offense and 2nd in scoring defense. They’re fast. They’re physical. They run complex defensive schemes that college quarterbacks cannot figure out. They’re well-coached. And they’re so, so deep on both sides of the ball. They’re unstoppable. Their next 3 games come against ranked opponents (at Arkansas, home against Florida, and at South Carolina). You can color me shocked if they slip up in any of those games. Because they shouldn’t. They’ve played at 3/4 speed in their first three games and dismantled San Jose State, Penn State, and Duke. Just look out for them when they play at full speed.
The race for second comes down to LSU, Auburn, and Arkansas, all of whom are inherently flawed in some way. LSU isn’t good enough offensively. Auburn isn’t good enough defensively. And Arkansas is so one-sided offensively, that a team like Alabama will key in on Ryan Mallet and make his life miserable for 60 minutes. Arkansas is the favorite to me, with Auburn the wild card. The Tigers have looked very beatable against both Mississippi State and Clemson, but they’ve beaten both teams, when, at least in the case of the Clemson game, they shouldn’t have. And Cameron Newton is only going to get better, in my opinion. Some consistency in the backfield from Michael Dyer or Onterio McCalebb would help Newton immensely, but it’s the defense that is the concern. I can’t see them stopping teams who do one thing very well (South Carolina running the ball/Arkansas throwing). There’s not enough depth. Arkansas is the choice because they do what they do best, best. But second place in the SEC West is only going to get you the Cotton Bowl. And we’re playing for title games here.
Big Picture
So, who’s going to the title game at this point in the season? Well, Alabama certainly. The Crimson Tide are the best team in college football, bar none. Behind them, you’ve got Ohio State, TCU, Boise State, Oregon, Stanford, South Carolina, Arizona, Texas, Nebraska, and Oklahoma, in some order. Sadly, though, this comes down to numbers. Primarily the number “0,” which is what I see Ohio State finishing the season with as it pertains to losses. They just look to be a step better than their competition on all levels of the game. That’ll leave out undefeated TCU, Boise, and potential undefeateds Nebraska, Oregon, Oklahoma, etc.
Look, anything can happen in the next 3/4. Did you see Jacksonville State beating Ole Miss? Or Denard Robinson accounting for 94% of Michigan’s offense against Notre Dame? Or so-called top NFL prospect Jake Locker going 4-20 against Nebraska? Or Nevada crushing California? No. It’s college football and anything can happen on Saturdays (and Fridays and Thursdays too). All of this could be wrong. Alabama could take one game for granted against a South Carolina or an Auburn and lose. Ohio State could get cocky and get beaten by unranked Minnesota. One thing, though is for certain, so far: Alabama and Ohio State are the two best teams in the country, on paper. But, honey, they don’t play these games on paper. They play them on Saturdays.
Heisman Front-Runners
1. Denard Robinson (QB/Michigan)
2. Terrelle Pryor (QB/Ohio State)
3. Trent Richardson (RB/Alabama)
4. Andrew Luck (QB/Stanford)
5. Taylor Martinez (QB/Nebraska)