A few rookie-related follow-ups to my season preview before we get to the post at hand:

5 Rookies Destined to Breakout This Year:
Ryan Mathews (RB/San Diego)
Jordan Shipley (WR/Cincinnati)
Kyle Wilson (CB/New York Jets)
Eric Berry (S/Kansas City)
Ndamukong Suh (DT/Detroit)

5 First Rounders You Won’t Hear a (Good) Thing From in 2010:
Tyson Alualu (DE/Jacksonville)
Dan Williams (DT/Arizona)
Earl Thomas (S/Seattle)
Jason Pierre-Paul (DE/New York Giants)
Kareem Jackson (CB/Houston)

Something occurred to me during my anti-Mike Williams (Seattle) rant yesterday in this space: How many times has a top-10 draft pick wideout turned into an elite producer, if only for one season? And so here we go.

First, to determine “elite” we need to create a statistical benchmark. Looking at the top performers in terms of receptions, yards, and TDs, over the last 10 NFL seasons, this is what I came up with:

-90 Receptions (Every league leader in the last 10+ years has finished with more than 100 receptions. For the sake of this argument, lets go with 90 as that gives us a top 5-8 for each year.)
-1400 Yards (Most of our league leaders over the past 10 years have finished well over 1400 yards with the exception of Chad Johnson in 2006 who finished with 1369, but that was an anomaly, as 1996 was the last time we had a league leader with under 1400 yards receiving.)
-9 TD (This is the tough one because you’d think the number should be higher, but it’s not. Randy Moss led the NFL with 23 in 2007, but the next closest single-season league leader is Randy Moss with 17 in 2001. The average number of TDs for the league-leader over the last 10 seasons is 15. Moss’s two seasons certainly boost that number up, so 9 seemed like a good (low) place to work from. Science!)

90 Rec, 1400 Yards, 9 TD. That’s not asking for a lot from a top-10 draft pick is it? I mean, if you’re going to use a Top-10 draft pick, you expect great production, no? Let’s take a look:

Our next step is to list each WR taken in the top-10 of the NFL Draft since 2000. Here they are, in all of their, um, glory:

Peter Warrick (Florida State/Cincinnati)
Plaxico Burress (Michigan State/Pittsburgh)
Travis Taylor (Florida/Baltimore)
David Terrell (Michigan/Chicago)
Koren Robinson (North Carolina State/Seattle)
Charles Rogers (Michigan State/Detroit)
Andre Johnson (Miami/Houston)
Larry Fitzgerald (Pittsburgh/Arizona)
Roy Williams (Texas/Detroit)
Reggie Williams (Washington/Jacksonville)
Braylon Edwards (Michigan/Cleveland)
Troy Williamson (South Carolina/Minnesota)
Mike Williams (Southern California/Detroit)
Calvin Johnson (Georgia Tech/Detroit)
Ted Ginn Jr. (Ohio State/Miami)
Darrius Heyward-Bey (Maryland/Oakland)
Michael Crabtree (Texas Tech/San Francisco)

Some names certainly jump out there. Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson namely:

Andre Johnson’s best statistical season? 115 Receptions, 1575 Yards, 8 TD
Larry Fitzgerald’s best statistical season? 96 Receptions, 1431 Yards, 12 TD

Both pass my benchmark. Johnson falls short of the TD standard, but his other numbers more than make up for that difference. You would be surprised though to learn that Johnson has only caught more than 80 balls 3 times in his 7 seasons. Part of that falls on poor quarterbacking certainly, so again, he gets a bit of a pass, not that he needs it.

Fitzgerald on the other hand, has caught 90+ in 4 of his 6 seasons and has caught double digit TDs 4 times as well. Statistically, he’s our man for this.

After Fitzgerald and Johnson though, who are we left with?

Plaxico Burress? 70 Rec, 1025 Yards, 12 TD. That doesn’t pass my benchmark. Too few receptions and receiving yards. He becomes the “fade” guy in the red zone, which is why the TD number is so high.

Braylon Edwards? 80 Rec, 1289 Yards, 16 TD. But his next highest TD season? That would be 6 TD in 2006. He doesn’t pass either. Again, lots of fades in the end zone. Also, can we call him elite based on his chairmanship of the Drops Hall of Fame?

Calvin Johnson? 78 Rec. 1331 Yards, 12 TD. Close, but no cigar. He has time though. And he has a QB throwing him the ball now. I think he gets there, but for now, it’s still just Andre Johnson and Fitzgerald.

Peter Warrick? 79 Rec. 819 Yards, 7 TD. Not so much. A slot receiver with a low YAC (yards after catch) number. Pathetic actually. Peter Warrick enjoyed falling down after catches. He was a league-leader in that category.

Troy Williamson? 37 Rec. 455 Yards, 0 TD. Getting colder….Seriously, that’s his most productive season. He was a top 10 pick.

Reggie Williams? 38 Rec. 628 Yards, 10 TD. You want to talk about a fades in the end zone guy? 25% of his catches were TDs.

Ted Ginn Jr.? 56 Rec. 790 Yards, 2 TD. Another candidate for the Peter Warrick “FAC (falls after catch) hall of fame.

Roy Williams? 82 Rec. 1310 Yards, 7 TD. Solid numbers. But as we’ve seen from Roy, this was an anomaly. His next best season? 63 Rec. 836 Yards, 5 TD. Big drop-off.

Travis Taylor? 61 Rec. 869 Yards, 6 TD. Hey, those are Roy Williams numbers!

Koren Robinson 78 Rec. 1240 Yards 5 TD. Probably a guy who could have been a step below elite, but still a #1 WR (think Greg Jennings) had he not had a penchant for abusing substances.

The rest of our guys are either too young to judge (Crabtree), clearly destined for a career with the Omaha Nighthawks (Heyward-Bey), or never amounted to anything (Terrell, Rogers, Mike Williams).

What we see from this information is that if you’re looking to draft a wideout, perhaps you can wait until later in the 1st Round (Randy Moss), the 2nd Round (Greg Jennings, Chad Ochocinco Johnson), the 3rd Round (Hines Ward, Terrell Owens), or just sign an undrafted free agent (Miles Austin, Wes Welker) and build your team up at other positions (left tackle, defensive end, quarterback). You might be a lot better off. So the next time you see a receiver get drafted by your favorite team in the top 10 (that will be in 2011 when AJ Green and Julio Jones go there) don’t hold your breath waiting for the next Larry Fitzgerald. History shows that you’re more likely going to end up with the next Travis Taylor.