Did you like reading yesterday’s AFC preview? Did you not read it (it’s below this one)? Do you want me to just get down to the NFC preview?

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys
Thought: Hype, hype, hype.
Vital Player: Mike Jenkins. This is a difficult team because I’m not sure that there’s any truly “vital player.” They’re real deep everywhere. Roy Williams was an option, but much like with Darrius Heyward-Bey, I don’t think he’s going to be anything more than a locker room disease. Jenkins is my pick because the Cowboy don’t have a ton of cornerback depth and Jenkins (a first-round pick in 2008) has been a bit of a disappointment. Terrence Newman ain’t getting any younger on the other side of the field. Jenkins needs to become a number 1.
Best-Case: All this hype turns out to be more than hype and the Cowboys finally gel, destroy their competition, Romo throws for 4000 Yards and 30 TD and they finish 14-2, winning their first Super Bowl since 1996 and becoming the first team to play in a Super Bowl in their home stadium.
Worst-Case: All this hype turns out to be hype and they struggle to stop other teams’ passing attack, all the while not having much of one themselves, as Miles Austin regresses immensely from a monster year in 2009, leaving him dating a Kardashian cousin. The Cowboys finish 8-8 and miss the playoffs. Wade Phillips is fired.

New York Giants
Thought: Oh, no everyone, please continue not talking about the New York Giants.
Vital Player: Keith Bullock. The Giants defense was a joke last year. Bullock comes over from Tennessee with the expectation that he’ll make their defense a whole lot less funny in 2010.
Best-Case: With lowered expectations, the Giants are a sneaky good team who can stop the run and defend the pass. The offense gets something out of Brandon Jacobs, as Ahmad Bradshaw has a breakout year as the lead rusher. The Giants finish 11-5 and march to the NFC title game.
Worst-Case: Or their defense is awful again. The addition of Bullock as well as of Antrel Rolle does nothing to shore up the D. Rookie Jason Pierre-Paul looks overmatched, drawing Vernon Gholston comparisons. Osi Uminyiora looks slower than Bengie Molina. Eli Manning throws interceptions like they’re the hottest trend in fancy watches, Tom Coughlin gets fired, and the Giants finish the season 6-10.

Philadelphia Eagles
Thought: Why is it that I love Kevin Kolb so much?
Vital Player: Kevin Kolb. Not to put any pressure on you, Kevin Kolb, but the entire city of Philadelphia hates you, thinks you’re going to fail, and if you do fail, you’re life will be hell until you get traded or cut and get to play elsewhere. No pressure though.
Best-Case: Kevin Kolb shuts up the battery-throwers with back-to-back 300 yard passing games in the first two weeks. He plays consistently well, but not great, for the rest of the season. Think Jeff Garcia. The defense, a patchwork group if I’ve ever seen one, actually makes a lovely blanket for opposing offenses. LeSean McCoy rushes for 1000 yards. They win the East at 11-5 and fall in the Divisional Round of the playoffs.
Worst-Case: Kolb goes out and throws 5 INT in his first two games. The cries for “Mike Vick” or “Mike Kafka’ begin. Kolb loses his confidence, but Andy Reid (the worst coach who people think is a good coach in the NFL) won’t take the pressure off him by running the ball, instead leaving Kolb with this line in Week 5 against the 49ers: 12 of 32, 133 Yards, 0 TD, 4 INT. Mike Vick starts the following week against Atlanta and things only get worse from there. Oh, and the defense resembles patchwork. And not the nice kind. 4-12. I’m not kidding.

Washington Redskins
Thought: I wish I didn’t live in Washington during football season.
Vital Player: Donovan McNabb. I wanted this to be someone other than McNabb, but I kept coming back to him. I don’t care about Albert Haynesworth. I think he’s better served to this team as a free agent. People fail to realize that he’s been wholly unproductive in his career, save for his final season in Tennessee, which happened to be a contract year that landed him a $100 million pay-day. McNabb needs to lead this team. Vocally. McNabb has long been one of my least favorite NFL players. He developed into this pseudo-leader in Philly, where he tried real hard to be likable. People who try hard to be likable often wind up being very disliked. In Washington, McNabb needs to be stable. Not funny. He needs to stay healthy and needs to want to win. I personally don’t like his vibes so far in Washington. I feel like he’s going through the motions.
Best-Case: McNabb is not going through the motions. Devin Thomas decides to be a legitimate pass-catching option. The offensive line keeps McNabb upright and the defense gets by just fine without Albert Haynesworth (or with him. I don’t really care.). The Redskins finish 10-6 and snag a Wild Card berth. This city erupts with joy.
Worst-Case: Donovan McNabb doesn’t much care about playing football in DC and it shows. He’s erratic and inaccurate with his passing. He’s lost a step or seven and takes a beating. Rex Grossman is forced into starting and does fairly well, but the rest of the team is awful. The defense is lethargic and can’t stop the run again. McNabb gets healthy and takes back the starting job, despite Grossman’s good play, and the city revolts against Mike Shannahan. The Redskins finish 4-12 and get to draft Jake Locker or Andrew Luck (I prefer Luck) in the first round in 2011.

Actual Predicted Results
1. New York Giants 10-6
2. Dallas Cowboys 10-6
3. Philadelphia Eagles 8-8
4. Washington Redskins 7-9

NFC North

Chicago Bears
Thought: Borrrrring.
Vital Player: Julius Peppers. I know, I had forgotten that he was on the Bears roster too. I also thought he had retired. When was the last time you remember watching Peppers and thinking, “Man, that guy is an elite defender.”? Look, 10.5 sacks is nothing to sneeze at. But Peppers has the skill to be a 20 sack guy. Or perhaps had it. He’ll need to show that he’s got something left in his tank because this defense needs a spark. And I for one don’t see Brian Urlacher being that spark.
Best-Case: The Mike Martz-led offense resembles the poor man’s version of the 1999 St. Louis Rams (which is pretty darn good). Matt Forte recreates his 2008 rookie season. Brian Urlacher stays healthy for 16 games. And Julius Peppers plays like his hair’s on fire. The Bears finish 10-6 and are in the playoff hunt.
Worst-Case: Jay Cutler throws 25+ INT again, Matt Forte can’t get out of his own way again, no one steps up at the WR position again, Greg Olsen fails to live up to expectations again, etc. etc. Lovie Smith loses his job mid-way through the season, putting Mike Martz in charge. From there, things get really bad. 3-13.

Detroit Lions
Thought: I tend not to like trendy things, but I kind of like the 2010 Detroit Lions. Just a bit.
Vital Player: Matthew Stafford. The rookie’s first season did not go very well. Expectations are higher for 2010 because you’re looking at a guy with all the “tools” people think NFL quarterbacks “need.” Strong arm. And an ability to move one’s legs. Kidding aside, Stafford has some tools to work with on offense. Calvin Johnson and the underrated (perhaps overlooked is a more accurate description) Nate Burleson make up a good 1-2 receiving pair. In the backfield, rookie Jahvid Best is expected to be the team’s first dynamic back since Barry Sanders. But it all comes down to what Stafford has improved on since his rookie season. If he is more accurate, the Lions offense could be a force to be reckoned with.
Best-Case: With an improving defense that isn’t quite there yet (next season), the offense carries the load and manages to outscore a handful of teams, giving the city of Detroit something to be happy about when it comes to football. 8-8 season.
Worst-Case: Stafford still isn’t quite ready and the Lions have a difficult time outscoring anyone. The defense remains one year away. I really don’t see Detroit having a large range between best and worst. They seem to be the easiest team to predict. 6-10 season.

Green Bay Packers
Thought: Super Bowl or bust.
Vital Player: Tramon Williams. I’m not trying to be cute. Al Harris and Atari Bigby are starting the season on the PUP list (ineligible for the first 6 weeks because they’re physically unable to perform). Williams is filling in for Harris, as he did last year. I have real concerns about Green Bay’s secondary without Harris and Bigy. The offense is good enough to outscore any NFL team, but you can’t do that for 16 games. Green Bay’s front 7 will need the back four to play above their heads in the absence of Bigby and Harris.
Best-Case: Super Bowl champions. They dominate the regular season and never miss a beat in the playoffs. 14-2 and Brett Favre who?
Worst-Case: Under an offseason and training camps of great expectations, the Packers completely fail to live up to them. The defense looks like they did against Arizona in the playoffs last season and Aaron Rodgers just isn’t quite as efficient as he was in 2009. 8-8 season. One of the most disappointing outcomes in recent memory in sports. Because this team has the potential to be very very special.

Minnesota Vikings
Thought: Ah, these are the fellas with that Brett Favre feller, right?
Vital Player: Percy Harvin. You want pressure? Fill the void left by Sidney Rice, and while you’re at it, also return kicks/punts, oh and try to fight through those migraines. In your second season. And all the while, keep reminding yourself that you need to win one for Brett Favre.
Best-Case: The defense is tops in the NFL. Adrian Peterson stops fumbling the ball and Favre puts up a solid season (not elite like last year). The Vikings come out of the gate with a win over the Saints on opening night and feel vindication. That drives them through the season to a division title (12-4) and a magical Brett Favre final season Super Bowl title.
Worst-Case: Brett Favre isn’t so great. Percy Harvin misses significant time due to headaches. And the defense, while good, isn’t elite. The Vikings limp to a 9-7 season and fight for the final playoff berth in the NFC.

Actual Predicted Results
1. Green Bay 13-3
2. Minnesota 10-6
3. Detroit 7-9
4. Chicago 5-11

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons
Thought: They don’t strike me as getting better or worse. Just existing. That is never a good thing.
Vital Player: Michael Turner. He needs a bounce-back year in 2010 more than any other player and his team needs it just as much. Matt Ryan did not show many flashes of brilliance last year. He doesn’t seem to be the type of QB to carry a team. He needs Turner if the Falcons are going to be successful.
Best-Case: This team is the bizarro Detroit Lions. I have no idea what to expect from the Falcons. Last year they were in my predicted NFC title game. The best I see for Atlanta this year is a division title and a first round playoff loss. 10-6.
Worst-Case: Nothing goes right for Atlanta. Matt Ryan shows no progression. Michael Turner 2010 resembles Turner 2009 rather than 2008. And the defense is just so-so. Like last year. And the year before that. 6-10. Mike Smith’s job becomes someone else’s.

Carolina Panthers
Thought: Call me crazy, but I think they’re not so bad.
Vital Player: Matt Moore. I wanted to take someone from the defensive side of the ball, but there are so many people who need to be good over there, that I kept coming back to Moore. I like Moore. I don’t love him. He put up good numbers at the end of 2009. Unlike a few of the NFL’s less famous QBs, Moore has a running game to rely on with Jon Stewart (not that one) and DeAngelo Williams. At the receiver spot, they need something from Dwyane Jarrett or rookie Brandon LaFell. If Moore gets some help, he can be a top 12 NFL QB. And that would do a world of good in Charlotte.
Best-Case: The offense is consistent and balanced and the defense (a veritable “who is that guy” crew) bands together in Julius Pepper’s absence and plays well. They finish 10-6 and compete for a division title.
Worst-Case: Matt Moore isn’t quite the answer and Jimmy Clausen has to play a year or two too early. The defense produces as you would expect them to when looking at their names. John Fox’s last season is 2010. The Panthers finish 5-11.

New Orleans Saints
Thought: If I have to hear the phrase “Who Dat?” one more time, I’m going to scream.
Vital Player: Drew Brees. You know, not that I don’t like Chase Daniel and all.
Best-Case: They stop celebrating their Super Bowl title at exactly 7:59:59 on Thursday, pummel the Vikings and coast to an easy division title and another Super Bowl championship. 14-2.
Worst-Case: Have you ever seen a team celebrate their championship as much as this team has? I’m a little put-off by it. I was very happy for New Orleans and the Saints. But I’m preconditioned to the New England Patriots method of celebration, whereby you celebrate by trying to win another one and leaving the parades and talk shows and Jon Gruden “hamming-it-up for the camera Sportscenter specials” to the Ochocincos of our football culture. Instead, everywhere I look I see Drew Brees and I keep hearing people say he’s the best QB in the NFL and I just don’t get it. And if you’re reading this thinking that this is a pretty “worst-case scenario,” I would remind you that I haven’t even talked about the actual 2010 season. 8-8 and a world full of disappointment in New Orleans and the sports-writer narrative world.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Thought: I’m about to either look stupid or like a genius.
Vital Player: Carnell Williams. We didn’t get a chance to see much good from QB Josh Freeman last year. He played in 10 games, threw 10 TDs and 18 INT. His QB rating was under 60.0. In the preseason, Freeman was throwing the ball really well before a thumb injury slowed him down. Tampa has cleaned house a bit this offseason. Freeman has some young guys to get familiar with on the outside. What he needs more than anything though, is a healthy Carnell Williams. A healthy Williams gives Freeman a much easier job as he transitions to full-time starter. And it could do a world of good in Tampa.
Best-Case: On the heels of a somewhat easy starting schedule (Browns, Panthers, and Roethlisberger-less Steelers), the Bucs start 2010 with a 3-0 record. They ride that momentum out of an early bye and become the darlings of the Sunday pregame show talk. The Bucs finish 2010 with a winning record (9-7) and fall just short of a shocking playoff berth.
Worst-Case: The Bucs are wholly inexperienced and I’m some sort of slack-jawed yokel who doesn’t deserve a blog that is read by 3 people (one of whom is me). They finish 3-13 because they have a really young defense that was awful against the run last season and is no better this year.

Actual Predicted Results
1. New Orleans 10-6
2. Carolina 9-7
3. Tampa Bay 8-8
4. Atlanta 6-10

NFC West
Arizona Cardinals
Thought: What a difference a QB makes.
Vital Player: Derek Anderson. When Derek Anderson is your vital player, you know that either you’re pretty good everywhere else. Or you’re just awful and I’m trying to end this as quickly as possible. The Cardinals are the former. However, bad QB play is so contagious, it sometimes affects your defense. Like, almost always. If Anderson struggles, look out for the free-fall. And may I add that they’re real excited in Arizona about Max Hall as their QB of the future. That’s not even a joke. Trust me, as someone who watches more college football than you do, Max Hall never looked like an elite college QB, nevermind an NFL QB.
Best-Case: Remember that year that Derek Anderson was real good and made it to a Pro Bowl? Maybe he can do that again and the Cardinals finish 11-5 and win the West and get eliminated in their first playoff game?
Worst-Case: An NFL team enters an NFL season with Derek Anderson as their best option at Quarterback. That team, a two-time defending division champion, doesn’t do a great job of defending their division title. 5-11.

San Francisco 49ers
Thought: The division title is yours, Niners.
Vital Player: Alex Smith. With a defense this good, it’s all about the offense and that starts with Smith. There is no safety net on this roster. No Shaun Hill. There is David Carr and Troy Smith. If Alex Smith fails, so too will the 49ers. He has the elite running back (Frank Gore), very good tight end (Vernon Davis), and a couple of quality receivers (Michael Crabtree, and Josh Morgan). The offensive line is improving with rookies Mike Iupati and Anthony Davis. It’s all up to Smith. He’s had the time to develop. Now he needs to perform.
Best-Case: Alex Smith gets it and everyone else does like they should. The 49ers win the West by 4 games, sailing to an easy 12-4 season and a run at the NFC championship game.
Worst-Case: Alex Smith is not very good and Frank Gore is forced to carry the load. He gets hurt and they’re left with Anthony “2.9 YPC” Dixon running the ball. The defense manages to keep them in every game and they finish 9-7, fighting for that last playoff spot.

Seattle Seahawks
Thought: Mike Williams is the number 1 receiver for an NFL team.
Vital Player: Mike Williams. I don’t buy it. Just don’t. Name me the last epic first round bust who turned into a team leader. Good luck with that. Is Mike Williams a precedent setter? We’re about to find out.
Best-Case: I can’t bring myself to be rosy. This is a bad football team. If they prove me wrong, I’ll eat my crow. But this team has 4-12 written all over it. A joke. They’re good at absolutely zero positions. They have a couple players. That doesn’t win you football games.
Worst-Case:They’re even worse than above. 1-15. An abject disaster. I don’t know who Pete Carroll thinks he is, but a football team constructionist he is not.

Saint Louis Rams
Thought: Well, at least they’re building a team the right way. For the opposite, see above.
Vital Player: They’re not going anywhere this year. Let’s just hope that Sam Bradford stays healthy.
Best-Case: Sam Bradford starts all 16 games, struggles a little bit, but stays healthy. They finish 5-11 and continue building for the future.
Worst-Case: A young and inexperienced offensive line gets their young and inexperienced QB seriously hurt. A young and inexperienced defense is not very good. 1-15. An abject disaster, but one that you can at least feel bad for.

Actual Predicted Results
1. San Francisco 11-5
2. Arizona 6-10
3. St. Louis 3-13
4. Seattle 2-14

NFC Playoffs
Wild Card Round: Minnesota (6) over New York Giants (3), Dallas (5) over New Orleans (4)
Divisional Round: Green Bay (1) over Minnesota (6), Dallas (5) over San Francisco (2)
NFC Championship: Green Bay (1) over Dallas (5)

Green Bay is the better version of the Baltimore Ravens from the AFC. The Packers are quite balanced. Ryan Grant may not be an elite RB, but he will do enough to take some of the weight off of Aaron Rodgers’ shoulders. Not that Rodgers can’t handle it. The Packers have a solid young defense that I think will respond well to the whoppin’ that the Cardinals put on them in the wild card game last season. No one in the NFC is as solidly dynamic as the Packers, not even the defending champs.

Super Bowl XLV: Green Bay over Baltimore (31-14). Two years in a row with the Packers for me. Last year, I was going out on a limb. This year, they’re for real.

AWARDS
NFL MVP: Aaron Rodgers
NFL Rookie of the Year: Ryan Mathews
NFL Coach of the Year: Mike Singletary

NFL’s Worst Team: Seattle Seahawks
Best Subplot: Aaron Rodgers and the Packers ending Brett Favre’s career.
Most Overrated Team: New Orleans Saints
Most Underrated Team: Cleveland Browns

The Best Regular Season Games (in my opinion):
Week 1: Baltimore at New York Jets (Minnesota at New Orleans not bad)
Week 2: New Orleans at San Francisco (New York Giants at Indy and New England at New York Jets, also good)
Week 3: Dallas at Houston
Week 4: Washington at Philadelphia (McNabb’s return)
Week 5: Minnesota at New York Jets
Week 6: Baltimore at New England
Week 7: Minnesota at Green Bay
Week 8: Green Bay at New York Jets
Week 9: Dallas at Green Bay
Week 10: Dallas at New York Giants
Week 11: Indianapolis at New England
Week 12: New Orleans at Dallas
Week 13: San Francisco at Green Bay
Week 14: New York Giants at Minnesota
Week 15: Green Bay at New England
Week 16: New York Giants at Green Bay
Week 17: Cincinnati at Baltimore

And finally, Tim Tebow’s final line after this season: 3 of 8 passing, 45 Yards, 0 TD, 1 INT 30 Carries, 70 Yards, 3 TD

Enjoy the season!