I’ve been putting off writing a mid-season analysis of the 2010-11 college basketball season for quite some time (well, since the midway point) now and, really, I’m not exactly jonesing to get it done. Now, don’t get me wrong, that’s not because I haven’t enjoyed this season. I have. In fact, I don’t remember the last college basketball season that I’ve followed more closely than this one. There’s a lot of star power out there, but for the first time in a while, it’s the teams that are stars and not the players. And I love that. There is no true freshman or sophomore sensation sweeping the nation this year. Some would argue that Ohio State’s Jared Sullinger is, but think back to John Wall, Blake Griffin, and Michael Beasley the previous three years. Those guys dominated the press coverage like Sullinger hasn’t. And for good reason. The team Sullinger is on is more complete than last year’s Kentucky team, 2009’s Oklahoma team, or Beasley’s 2008 Kansas State team. Sullinger has David Lighty, Jon Diebler, and William Buford all averaging double-digit points per game. Ohio State goes 8 deep really well (Dallas Lauderdale was playing 25 minutes per game last year. Now he’s the seventh man on this team). And they’re well-coached and well-disciplined. In short, they’re a complete team.

And that sort of comes to my point about my excitement, or lack thereof, for writing: I can only really see a handful of teams with a legitimate shot at a title. In years past, you could see more teams getting there because of stars leading a team. Like Rose did in Memphis in 2008. Look, that Memphis team had Chris Douglas-Roberts and Joey Dorsey and went deep on the bench, but that was Rose’s team. And you knew that stopping Rose stopped the Tigers. With this season’s Ohio State team (and that’s just an example) you can try to stop Sullinger inside and get hurt by Diebler (49.5% from 3) and Lighty (45% from 3). As a team, Ohio State shoots 50% from the field (4th in the nation). Stopping one guy does not stop Ohio State.

Now, this scenario will be very sexy come the time for the Elite 8. That weekend of the tournament will be epic. Games where strategy, rather than stars, wins. We haven’t seen those recently. And so I’m excited for the end of March. As for the rest of the regular season? And the first two rounds of the tournament? I don’t know that we’re going to see a lot of surprises, upsets, and compelling story lines.

So why not invent some???? Here are my top three potential story lines that could make the time between now and March 26 (the start of the Elite 8) just a little more exciting:

3. Kyrie Irving and the Duke Blue Devils

Mike Krzyzewski has remained mostly mum on the status of injured freshman guard Kyrie Irving. In short, Irving was the most impressive freshman I’ve seen this century. Better than Wall. Better than Rose. He was complete in every sense. It says a lot that the Devils have only lost once since he went down against Butler in early December. If he comes back this season, I’ll push all of my chips to the center of the table for the Devils. Without him, Duke is great. But how great? And so we sit and wait. Maybe Krzyzewski is playing opossum and Irving will return in late February to get in shape for a March run. Or maybe he’s really done for the season. Just know that I think about this way more than I should.

2. Rock Chalk

Kansas can go undefeated. Before Irving’s injury, I said the same about Duke. Now, if someone can do it, it’s not San Diego State (more on that in a moment) or Ohio State (they’ll lose in Champaign on January 22). No, the team that can go undefeated is Kansas. And it has nothing to do with schedule. Kansas has a couple of roadblocks on the schedule (at Mizzou to close out the season, and at a struggling Kansas State team in mid-February that will need a win to stay alive for the tournament (and even that might not help the Wildcats)). But Kansas is much better than Missouri and Kansas State. I expected Kansas to struggle a bit last night with the size and length of Baylor. Instead, they won by 20. Kansas is better this year, more balanced this year, than when they won the National Title in 2008. The Morris twins give the Jayhawks interior toughness they haven’t had in a long time (apologies to Darrell Arthur, Nick Collison, and Cole Aldrich). Meanwhile, they can bury you from outside. No team in the country shoots better than the Jayhawks. And no team in the country is deeper than the Jayhawks (10 players averaging 14+ minutes per game). Do I think Kansas finishes the regular season undefeated? Yes, I do.

1. The Mountain West race

Look, I won’t blame you if you don’t care about a conference whose games show up on the CBS College Sports Network. But you’re missing some really good, physical basketball. The MWC is the Big East of the West and the fourth best conference in college hoops (after the Big East, Big 12, and Big 10). The current top 10 features 4 Big East teams, 2 Big 12 teams, 1 Big 10 team, 1 ACC team, and 2 Mountain West teams. And it’s not just luck. San Diego State (the nation’s 6th ranked team) is a legitimate Final Four team. No novelty needed. They’re relatively deep, offensively rebound as well as anyone, shoot well, and are tough as nails when they need to be. Rather than try to get teams to play their game, the Aztecs adapt to their opponents game and do it better than them. UNLV tried to outwork the Aztecs defensively. They lost. New Mexico tried to outrun the Aztecs. They lost. And UNLV and New Mexico are tournament teams. San Diego State is undefeated and on a collision course towards the potential regular season game of the year, not just in the American Southwest, but in all the country, on Wednesday January 26 in Provo, Utah against BYU.

BYU wants to out shoot you. And more often than not, they do. The Cougars are led by Jimmer Fredette. If you haven’t heard of Jimmer, don’t worry, I didn’t spell “Jimmy” incorrectly. He’s known as just “Jimmer” or “The Jimmer (my preference).” He is the sharpshooter’s sharpshooter. Fredette leads the nation in scoring at 26 PPG and leads the Cougars in assists. He’s the kind of player the media loves. He’s a white Mormon named Jimmer, whose brother is a Mormon rapper, who may be the best player in college basketball. I mean, c’mon, right?

But while Jimmer might seem like a novelty, he’s not. He’s the real deal. More so than Adam Morrison was. Jimmer is an NBA player, not just some four year national love affair. He’s played well as BYU’s PG this season and in the right environment, will be a real good NBA guard. His range is limitless and he has a swagger that a guy like Adam Morrison clearly lacked. Don’t expect The Jimmer to grow a porn-stache.

I’d be remiss if I made the MWC all about SDSU and BYU. New Mexico, UNLV, and to a lesser extent, Colorado State have all played well this season. UNLV intrigues me the most of this group because they’re a really good defensive club. UNLV is an outside shooter away from being where the Cougars and Aztecs are. They’ve beaten Wisconsin, Virginia Tech, and Kansas State already this season and outside of a fluke loss to UC-Santa Barbara, should be a Top 25-ranked team.

So who wins the MWC? San Diego State. I think the Aztecs win a classic in Provo next Wednesday night. Stay up (10 pm Eastern), find the CBS College Sports Network, sit back, and enjoy. I don’t think the Aztecs can do the undefeated season. They’ll slip up somewhere, against someone they probably shouldn’t. And frankly, it would be better for them. If I had to guess where they lose, I’d say UNLV gets them when they play in Vegas on February 12th.

So who wins it all? Here’s the list of teams that I think can win the title. It’s worth noting from the outset that no team from the Big East finds themselves here. If there’s anything I’ve learned from watching the war of attrition that is the Big East schedule, it’s that those teams are not conditioned to playing fast teams like Kansas and Duke. Heck, look at last year. Syracuse, a 1 seed, was eliminated in the Sweet 16 by a small, sharpshooting team in Butler. Georgetown, a 3 seed, lost in the First Round to an Ohio team that killed the Hoyas with quickness. Pittsburgh lost in Round 2 to a guard-dominated, perimeter Xavier team. And Marquette lost in Round 1 to the ultimate in quick, guard-dominated teams in Washington. Any one of this year’s Big East teams would be eliminated in a Sweet 16 matchup with a team like Missouri or Washington. And so knowing that they’ll each have to play a quick, guard laden team, I just can’t see any of them hoisting a trophy in early April.

The Favorites (ranked)
1. Kansas: See above.
Possible Fatal Flaw: Occasional laziness from the Morris twins.

2. Duke: There’s something to be said for a team that’s been there and done that. Duke has players who’ve gone through the March grind. In fact, they don’t just have players who’ve done it, they have leaders, in Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith.
Possible Fatal Flaw: Total lack of size. This Duke team would get killed by Kansas under most circumstances.

3. Ohio State: See above.
Possible Fatal Flaw: That we’re overrating them. I’ve yet to see Ohio State play 40 minutes this season (like, literally, as in I have only watched bits and pieces of them). They’ve frankly underwhelmed me thus far, from what I’ve seen. And I’m not a fan of the Big 10. Ohio State can play up to the speed of the elites, if they have to. But they haven’t had to, yet. The skill is there. It’s a matter of putting it together like they did in 2007.

They Can Do It (Maybe)
1. Any one of: Syracuse, Pittsburgh, UConn, or Villanova

2. San Diego State: They’re complete. They’re effective. They can play a number of styles. They have a great player in Kawhi Leonard and a very, very good coach in Steve Fisher. If their name was “North Carolina” everyone would be a believer. Because they’re a team from the oh-so inferior Mountain West (SARCASM!) they won’t be treated as they should be.
Fatal Flaw: As good as BYU and UNLV are, SDSU has not and will not see the athletes that Kansas can run out there. 10 deep at that.

3. Michigan State: Right now, they’re hanging around in the weeds, waiting until March. They’re a veteran team who played a rough non-conference schedule, coached by one of the greatest college coaches of all time. You can sell them short all you want. I’m at the Spartan party.
Fatal Flaw: Lack of athleticism as a team. Duke beat them by 5 at Cameron, with Kyrie Irving. The score doesn’t reflect it, but Duke beat them much worse than by 5 points. They outran the Spartans all night. If Michigan State can get their opponent to play their game, the athleticism thing isn’t a problem. But if, say, Kansas, forces the issue, Michigan State should get left in the dust.

4. BYU: Jimmer can get hot.
Fatal Flaw: Jimmer needs to get very hot for a month. That’s a lot to ask.

They Really Can’t Do It, But I Feel Like Talking About Them At Random
1. Kansas State: I don’t recall a more frustrating team to watch in the last five years. They’re incredibly talented. That’s about it. To say that the Wildcats have no team leadership would be like saying Young Jeezy has no street cred. I watch this team play and I spend most of the time shaking my head. Early, off-balanced shots. Lazy defense. And zero accountability. Frank Martin should not have a job after this season. Kansas State’s preseason top five ranking was deserved, on paper. They proved early on, with embarrassing performances against Duke, Florida, and UNLV that they didn’t deserve that, in real life. Can this team catch fire? Honestly, watching them, no. They can’t. I’m not sure they’ll even make the tournament. And that’s a shame for the fans in the Little Apple, who came in expecting a run at a title, as I did.

2. Baylor: Another thoroughly disappointing team. Baylor’s athleticism is off the charts. With Kyrie Irving’s injury, Baylor has the likely first overall pick in June’s NBA draft in Perry Jones III. They also have an excellent pure scorer in LaceDarius Dunn. Jones III and Dunn are complimented by a group of swingmen with infinite wingspans who can jump out of the gym. The question after a little more than half the season is if they can play basketball while jumping out of the gym. So far, the jury is still out. I watched them play zero interior defense last night against Kansas. I mean, Brady Morningstar could have been playing the 5 and he would have produced last night. This team, unlike Kansas State, can make a serious run at the Final Four. Whereas Kansas State has a personality issue, Baylor has an execution issue. You can fix that in two months. Kansas State needs a complete makeover.

3. Texas A&M: You know, it’s cute that they’re a top 10 team and all, but consider that their biggest win of the season was a two point, home, overtime victory over an inconsistent Missouri team on Saturday. Texas A&M’s only loss of the season was to Boston College. The same Boston College team that lost to Yale and Harvard. So, yeah, I’m not a big believer in Mark Turgeon and the Aggies.

4. Purdue: If Robbie Hummel had knees, they’d be in the group with Kansas, Duke, and Ohio State.

5. Saint Mary’s: They have two losses this season. They are to San Diego State and BYU. They’re 7th in the nation in scoring offense, 2nd in assists, and 2nd in FG %. “Watch out,” is all I’m saying. You were warned when everyone says, “How did that team end up in the Sweet 16?”

6. Gonzaga: This could be the end of the run for America’s Cinderella.

It is the end of the run for this post. Enjoy the remainder of the regular season. There might not be a lot of reasons to watch until March, but I’ll certainly be watching.