(TWO EDITOR NOTES: 1.) Rymer Liriano is an outfielder. I’m not sure why I thought he was a shortstop. 2.) Rymer Liriano is out for the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. This concludes your Rymer Liriano-related updates. Thanks to Matt for the corrections.)
Biggest Offseason Acquisition: Freddy Garcia. This is 2001, right?
Potential Fatal Flaw: I’m having trouble narrowing it down to just one.
Ceiling: .500 baseball team
Floor: Top 5 2014 draft pick
Overall: A few weeks ago, I told a colleague that I thought the Padres would win the NL West. I don’t actually believe that will happen.
I do, though, think the Padres are not only heading in the right direction, but that they’ll be competitive in 2013.
During the offseason, the Padres moved the fences in at (lovely) Petco Park. On the surface, this seems like a smart move for a team that has struggled to hit home runs since Petco opened. The problem with bringing in the fences though is that you compact the outfield. When you make your outfield smaller, there’s less room for outfielders to have to cover. And when there’s less room for outfielders to have to cover, fewers balls fall for doubles and triples. That might be okay if your lineup is full of power hitters. San Diego’s is not.
Beyond the fences moving in, not much has changed in San Diego. They acquired Tyson Ross from the Athletics, but it’s worth noting that Ross was one of the worst pitchers (perhaps the worst) in the Majors last season, racking up an ERA + of 61 and being worth (-1) wins. And it’s not like he was pitching at Coors Field circa 1996. And, well, that’s pretty much it. Tyson Ross is nothing to hang your SD hat on.
If I had created a “key player” tab, San Diego’s would have been Carlos Quentin. A healthy Quentin takes some of the pressure off the really good Chase Headley, who is coming off of a career year (MAB NOTE: Headley will likely miss the first month of the season with a finger injury). Quentin was very good last year, posting an .877 OPS. Unfortunately, he only played in 86 games. The most Quentin has ever played in a season is 131 games. As a 162 game player, he could easily be a 30 HR, 100 RBI. San Diego needs Quentin to play about 130 games if they’re going to be a .500 team. Because…
Their pitching is not very good. They’re led at the top by Clayton Richard and Edinson Volquez. The rest is up in the air. Anthony Bass, Andrew Cashner, Freddy Garcia, Tyson Ross, Jason Marquis, and Eric Stults will all probably pitch in the rotation between April and September. Outside of Cashner, the upside isn’t exactly, well, up.
The Padres, like a lot of teams who have struggled recently, are on the way up. Jedd Gyorko will probably be the everyday second baseman by the All-Star break. Likewise, Rymer Liriano will probably be playing shortstop after September 1. Both are the anchors of San Diego’s future and neither are terribly far away (Gyorko is probably ready now, at the age of 24). News that Casey Kelly could need Tommy John surgery tempers some of the excitement about the future of the Padres, but make no mistake, my irrational prediction about San Diego winning the NL West wasn’t terribly far off. I think we start to see a taste of a successful future this season.
Predicted Finish: 79-83
Mid-Atlantic Bias 
shhhhh, don't drive up Gyorko's ADP any further!