In 2012, I wrote the first installment of my MLB 25 and Under team. Remember Barack Obama’s first presidential term? Things were different then. 

That rotation (Kershaw, Strasburg, Bumgarner, Sale, Darvish) turned out to be really, really good, winning multiple Cy Young awards, as well as a couple World Series MVPs (and having a good Twitter presence, Yu). On offense, I selected Brett Lawrie as my third baseman and later in the post, questioned whether Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt were good enough all-around hitters. It was, let’s say, a mixed bag. 

I’d like to think my evaluation eye has gotten better over the years. One thing that has certainly gotten better is the number of really young players earning roles as valuable full-time Major League contributors. Over the last few weeks, we’ve seen three prospects make their Major League debuts in the playoffs. Two of them are pitchers. That’s literally never happened before. 

The biggest reason, I think, for this is that the 2020 season is a baseball fever dream. Teams are playing playoff games in empty stadiums that aren’t their own. Everyone is wearing masks in the dugout (some even covering their noses!). Perhaps most importantly though, rosters are bigger. Teams are playing games with a 28 man roster, which I am absolutely in support of going forward. The more the merrier. Especially when the “more” is more supremely talented 20 year olds whose service time clocks get to start running earlier than they have in the past. Because as much as I enjoy the minor leagues (unlike Rob Manfred), Amarillo, Texas is no place for Mackenzie Gore. 

We’ll probably never see an under-25 rotation quite like the 2012 iteration, but the guys you’ll see below will have plenty of time to prove themselves as equals to the Strasburgs and Sales of the world. Maybe not Kershaw, but that’s no slight to anybody. 

Quick note: eligibility, as previously established in the 2017 post, is that a player has to have been 25 year old or younger on the day the regular season ended (September 27, 2020). Apologies to all players born on or before September 27, 1994. 

Starting Pitchers (we’ll carry six because this is a 28 man roster):

Shane Bieber (Age 25) is a no-brainer in this category. He’s your presumptive AL Cy Young award winner after producing a gaudy 3.2 bWAR in just 12 starts in 2020. He punched out 122 in 77.1 IP. His ERA+ was 281. His stats were just completely off the charts. Had this been a 162 game season and he produced stats like this, we’d be talking about the greatest pitching season in modern MLB history. He’s improved dramatically in each of his three seasons and looks to be the cornerstone of the Cleveland rotation until they trade him in his first arbitration year. 

Germán Márquez (Age 25) has developed into a well-above league average pitcher despite pitching in Denver. He’ll give up a lot of homers, but has kept his career walk rate under 3 per 9 IP, which is not outstanding, but is a key to pitchers having success at Coors. Of concern, his K/9 rate has dropped each of the past two seasons, but given his sustained track record of success, he was the second surest pick. 

Jack Flaherty (Age 24) was excellent in 2019. He was not excellent in 2020. His K/9 rate stayed steady, but when he wasn’t striking out batters, he was giving up a lot of hits (1.2/9 more than in 2019). Likewise, he walked one more batter per 9. I’m willing to bet on 2020 being an aberration for the very talented Flaherty. 

Zach Plesac (Age 25) did a really selfish and stupid thing in 2020. It’s possible that Plesac could win multiple Cy Youngs in his career and all anyone will remember was Zach’s Night Out. When he wasn’t at the alternate camp site being punished for his stupidity, Plesac was outstanding. His WHIP was microscopic. His K/BB ratio was better than 9/1. The only thing worth concern with Plesac is his FIP, which is over a run higher than his ERA for his career. Even still, he’ll be a fixture of this rotation along with Shane Bieber, until they trade him in his first arbitration year.

And now…the rookies. The list of rookie starting pitchers on my preliminary list was long. Very long. Sixto Sanchez, Triston McKenzie, Nate Pearson, Tarik Skubal, Brady Singer, Casey Mize were just some of the names on that list. I went with Dustin May and Jesus Luzardo. 

Jesus Luzardo (Age 23) beat out Skubal in the battle of the lefties. I’m very high on Skubal, but Luzardo simply has the better stuff and the better command right now. I fully expect his unspectacular 2020 numbers to improve with a normal season in 2021. 

Dustin May (Age 23) was actually a no-brainer. The Dodgers have jerked him around a bit, as they tend to do. He should be a rotation fixture for the Dodgers for a very long time. To my eye, he has the best stuff of any young starter in baseball. He generates incredible movement on each of his pitches. He’s not striking out the number of hitters you would expect from a pitcher with his arsenal. And like Plesac, his ERA and FIP are wildly off. But when you watch May pitch, it just looks like you’re watching an ace work. If the Dodgers can just leave him in the rotation every fifth day in 2021 (assuming there is a 2021), you’re looking at a guy who can compete for a Cy Young. He’s that good. 

Bullpen (we’ll carry 8):

I’ve written this before, but the bullpen is the hardest part of this team to predict success for. A good reliever probably throws, at most, two elite pitches. Once the League figures out just one of those pitches, he becomes a dramatically less effective pitcher. A few of the guys on this list are currently fringe starting pitchers, but given the way baseball is going, having a reliever capable of getting six outs is increasingly more valuable. 

Brusdar Graterol (Age 22) should be the Dodgers’ closer already, but they’re willing to die by Kenley Jansen’s 88 mph cutter. Graterol came into the Majors as a starter, but was promptly moved to the bullpen when he arrived in Los Angeles (after the Boston Red Sox inexplicably didn’t want him…literally…they could have just had him for free). Graterol’s arsenal consists of a deadly 101 mph fastball that generates great movement. He projects as a high-upside closer. 

James Karinchak (Age 25) came a bit out of nowhere in 2020 after facing just 4 batters in 2019. He entered 2020 outside of Keith Law’s Top 20 Cleveland prospects. Likewise, he found himself outside of MLB Pipeline’s Top 20 list. So why is he here? Well, he struck out 17.7 batters per 9 IP in 2020. He also walked WAAAAY too many batters and there’s little belief in the scouting world that he can fix that. But that kind of strikeout ability doesn’t grow on trees. He has a well-above average fastball and curveball and if he can find some sort of command on that fastball, he moves into the elite reliever category. He’s worth betting on. 

Cal Quantrill (Age 25) is Karinchak’s teammate and fits into the category of “tweener.” Quantril is not quite good enough to go through a Major League lineup twice, nevermind three times, but he’s shown effectiveness as a multi-inning option, producing an excellent, if not probably unrealistic, 200 ERA+ in 2020 and a 2.25 conventional ERA. He won’t overpower anybody with stuff, but he’s missed bats, giving up less than 1 hit per inning. 

Caleb Fergueson (Age 24) is a lefty specialist for the Dodgers who didn’t suffer with the 3 batter minimum rule in 2020, dramatically lowering his walk rate and pitching to a sub-3.00 ERA. 

Adrian Morejón (Age 21) is here for potential. He’s young but has yet to show the kind of pitching skill that saw the Padres spend $11 million to sign him in 2016. To date, he’s given up far too much contact, especially home run contact, surrendering 7 homers in just 19.1 IP in 2020. But he strikes out 11.6 per 9 IP, so the stuff is there. 

Freddy Peralta (Age 24) is a converted starter (converted in that he failed miserably as a starter). Halfway through 2019, the Brewers realized that Peralta was awful in the first inning and moved him to the tweener bullpen role. He was very good in that role this year, pitching to a 2.41 FIP (his higher ERA indicates he was unlucky), while striking out 14.4 per 9, while surrendering just 2 homers all season. He should be a high-leverage bullpen arm for Milwaukee and, to me, is one of the surest things in this bullpen. 

Garrett Crochet (Age 21) has thrown exactly 6 innings in his career and might need Tommy John surgery. Still, he faced 22 batters and allowed 4 to reach base. None scored. Chicago could try him in the rotation in 2021 if healthy, but he’s a fairly limited pitcher in terms of arsenal and with Giolito, Kopech, Dunning, Keuchel, and Cease already there, he’d be much more valuable as a lefty reliever with strikeout ability than a starting pitcher for the Charlotte Knights. 

Genesis Cabrera (Age 24) celebrates a birthday as I write this capsule on October 10. Happy birthday Genesis! You were the last man to make this roster, just edging out Astros reliever Enoli Paredes. Genesis is a real boom or bust pitcher. He pitched to a dangerously high FIP in 2020, despite having only a 2.42 ERA. He’s a strikeout pitcher (like most of the guys here…that’s where upside lies in bullpens) with walk problems. Example: he only allowed 4 hits per 9 IP this season. But he walked 16 batters in 22 total IP. If his bullpen partner Alex Reyes was age-eligible, he would be here. He’s not though. 

Starting Lineup

Catchers: Will Smith (Age 25), Sean Murphy (Age 26…but 25 on the last day of the season)

Will Smith gets the nod here as the everyday catcher. He is, statistically, the second worst pitch framer in baseball. He is, however, an outstanding hitter, perhaps only behind JT Realmuto at this point in terms of overall hit tool. He walked nearly as often as he struck out in 2020, while hitting 8 homers, with a .401 OBP. Just off-the-charts offensive numbers for a young catcher. 

Murphy, by contrast, is an outstanding pitch framer who is in the next tier of hitting catchers below Smith and Realmuto. He should be Oakland’s starting catcher until they trade him in his final year of arbitration, in the way that they do.  

Infielders: Cody Bellinger (Age 25), Ozzie Albies (Age 23), Fernando Tatis Jr. (Age 21), Yoan Moncada (Age 25), Rafael Devers (Age 23), Gleyber Torres (Age 23), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Age 21), Wander Franco (Age 19) 

I may be wrong, but I think Bellinger is the only player in my lifetime who is a true Gold Glove centerfielder that also plays first base regularly. It’s a weird thing the Dodgers do with their roster. As I mentioned with the Dustin May blurb, they jerk a lot of players around, yo-yoing them between pitching roles and moving them all around the diamond. This is due in large part to a bloated Major League roster (kind of the rare case of too much talent being a bad thing). In some cases, it stagnates development (see: Lux, Gavin). And in other cases, like Bellinger, it allows people like me to question whether offensive struggles stem from inconsistency elsewhere in terms of job expectations. Look, Bellinger is coming off of a 2019 MVP campaign, so I’d be nuts to not have him on this team. But he sucked (comparatively) in 2020. He had an OPS under .800 for the first time in his career. His on-base percentage was a pedestrian .333. He was about 15 homers off of his 2019 pace. Basically, he regressed everywhere. I think LA would be very wise to just play him at first base full time. Yes, he’s valuable in CF. But he’s more valuable as a 9 WAR first baseman. 

Bellinger’s backup at first is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. I want to believe in Vladito. I really do. That’s why he’s here. It’s easy to forget that he’s only 21. So far, he’s been a case of the production not matching the hype. And it’s not like he’s not producing. In fact, his 2020 season looked very similar to Bellinger’s. And now that he’s off of 3B full-time, he’s not a total defensive liability for the Blue Jays. Next season (assuming it’s a relatively normal 162 game season) will be an important year for his development. I’m betting on him producing the kind of numbers (.400 OBP, 30 HR) that we expected from him. 

Over at second, we’ve got Ozzie Albies getting the starting nod. Ozzie only played in 29 regular season games this season, so it’s hard to get too in the weeds over his sub-100 OPS+. He hit 24 homers each of the previous two seasons and plays a good enough defensive second base to make him a 5 WAR per season player. Spectacular? No. Consistently reliable and worth being the starting second baseman on a fake team? Certainly. 

Backing Ozzie up is Gleyber Torres who took a very concerning step back in 2020. Coming off of a 38 homer campaign in the full 2019 season, Torres slugged 3 in 2020. 3. If you want to build that out to a full 162 game season it’s roughly not a lot of homers. Previously, Torres was a second baseman in New York, but with the departure of Didi Gregorious, he moved over to SS and cost the Yankees nearly 1 win defensively. The bright spot is that he still walked and got on base at a .356 clip. But the drop in power is something to watch and the clumsy defense at SS is enough of a reason to move him back to 2B full time. 

At third base, I’ve got Moncada and Devers, two players who put up monster numbers in 2019 (a combined 57 home runs with them sporting OPSs of .916 and .915 respectively). Then 2020 happened and like most things in 2020, they weren’t very good. Moncada’s power numbers were way down and frankly, he’s likely never going to be a 30 HR corner infielder. But he plays a fine defensive 3B. Devers, on the other hand, had the power numbers, hitting 11 homers in 57 games, but his defense at 3B stinks and he doesn’t possess nearly the same plate discipline as Moncada. The starting nod goes to the White Sox third baseman. 

When it came to the shortstop position, I didn’t have to do much thinking about the starter. It’s Fernando Tatis Jr. every day until he’s no longer eligible, much like with Mike Trout in previous iterations. Everything that Fernando Tatis Jr. does feels like appointment viewing. In the field he is dazzling. Does he need to improve his throwing to first? Sure. And I have no doubt he will. But if you hit a ball in his general vicinity, the ball will find its way to him. The ball wants to be close to Fernando. And it should. As a 21 year old, his numbers at the plate were jaw-dropping. His homer pace is equivalent to a 46 HR full season, with 30 SB to boot. As a leadoff hitter! If not for a late-season slump, we would be talking about a 21 year old NL MVP. Barring injury, we’re looking at the man who Major League Baseball should be marketing to every planet in the solar system for the next 15 years. He’s charismatic, beautiful, smart, humble, and has the ability to be a generational talent on the field. Of course, MLB will treat Pete Alonso like a superstar instead.

The question of who to back up Fernando was challenging and came down to Bo Bichette, Gavin Lux, and Wander Franco. I went with the 19 year old who has never played a game above Advanced-A ball. Franco is the consensus top prospect in baseball and has been for what feels like two seasons. He walks twice as much as he strikes out. He’s a switch hitter. He’s incredibly sound in the field for a 19 year old playing shortstop. He is, of course, all potential and Bichette has been, when healthy, a very good Major League shortstop. And Lux has performed at a higher tier of the developmental system to astounding production. But until he shows regression (and there’s no reason to believe he will), this should be Franco’s spot. 

Outfielders: Ronald Acuña Jr. (Age 22), Luis Robert (Age 23), Juan Soto (Age 21), Eloy Jimenez (Age 23)

I could write a lot of words about this outfield. I’m starting Robert in center where he’s a defensive superstar, shifting Acuña Jr. over to right and keeping Juan Soto at his natural left field, with Eloy DHing in my lineup on most days. 

Starting with Robert, he was a marvel in centerfield. He uses his elite speed and instincts to track every ball with precision. There isn’t a catch that he can’t make. At the plate, he looked like a rookie. His power is prodigious and when he hits the ball, the ball goes far. He missed the ball a lot in his rookie campaign, striking out 73 times in 227 PA. That said, we’re talking about a rookie who over a full season would be a 30 HR, 25 SB, all-world defensive centerfielder. If he becomes a more disciplined hitter, the American League is in serious trouble. Because…

standing to his right is Eloy Jiménez. In his second Major League season, Eloy’s offensive numbers improved across the board. Improved slash line. Higher home rate. Lower strikeout rate. He’s developing into the perfect cleanup hitter. Whereas Robert has potential to be a George Springer-type leadoff guy, Eloy is never going to be a patient enough hitter and frankly doesn’t need to be. His game is power and he has a lot of it (38 HR pace this season). Defensively, as I noted, he’ll be the DH on this team. 

And then there’s Juan and Ronald. At least in my mind, they’ll always be tethered together. They both took the NL by storm as rookies and have both become superstars before turning 23, with Soto being a valuable contributor to a World Series champion and Acuña potentially on the way to doing the same in 2020. There’s nothing Ronald Acuña cannot do on the baseball field, besides avoid getting hit by Miami Marlins pitchers. If not for Luis Robert’s world-class defense, I’d be more than comfortable leaving Acuña Jr. in CF. He bats leadoff for the Braves but would be an exceptional number 2 hitter, batting behind a lighter hitting leadoff man with great on-base abilities. His power is a little wasted as evidenced by his 2:1 RBI:HR ratio. But that’s a manager problem, not a Ronald problem. 

Juan Soto, at the age of 21, put up the Bondsian slash line of .351/.490/.695 this season. He walked more than he struck out. He led the Majors with a 1.185 OPS. He was 21 years old. I wrote last season that we (society) do a terrible job of appreciating greatness in the moment. Case in point, Soto’s rookie season as a 19 year old where he clocked a .406 OBP.  Soto is on his way to becoming a multi-time MVP and a first-ballot Hall of Fame player and he’s only played 3 years in the Majors. His first three seasons are right there with Frank Robinson, Hank Aaron, Mickey Mantle, Ken Griffey Jr., and Mike Trout. And sure, some stars burn out. Soto doesn’t look like that kind of star. He’s destined for greatness and to speak subjectively, I really appreciate having him on my team (this one and the Washington Nationals).

Batting Order: 

• Fernando Tatis Jr.- SS
• Ronald Acuña Jr- RF
• Juan Soto- LF
• Eloy Jiménez-DH 
• Cody Bellinger- 1B
• Yoan Moncada- 3B
• Will Smith- C
• Ozzie Albies- 2B
• Luis Robert- CF