Excitement and Anger

November 30, 2011 / Jason / 1 Comment

Two brief thoughts on things that would take more than 140 characters to talk about:

1.) Tonight’s Duke/Ohio State game pits two of the most impressive teams I have seen all season. Duke has looked great playing a very tough schedule (Belmont, Michigan State, Michigan, Tennessee, and Kansas). Ohio State has looked great, um, playing Florida? The Buckeyes’ schedule has not been very daunting, but they’ve handled it very well (see: UConn losing to Central Florida as an example of the opposite).

If you read my season preview, you’ll know that I picked both of these teams to reach the Final Four, with the Buckeyes winning it all. Trust me, neither team has done anything to indicate that I was crazy in these predictions.

The matchup to watch tonight doesn’t involve Ohio State’s star Jared Sullinger, or either of Duke’s Plumlee brothers. No, I’ll be watching the best defensive guard in the country, Ohio State’s Aaron Craft, and the most heralded freshman in the nation, Duke’s Austin Rivers. This is where I think the game will be won by Ohio State. Expect Craft to swarm Rivers, who has been susceptible to the turnover early on (and susceptible to bad shots). I think Craft finishes the game with 5 steals. And Ohio State comes away with a 9 point victory. And if you, for whatever reason, can’t get to the game tonight (9:30 pm/ESPN), don’t fret. I think you’ll have a chance to see the rematch in early April. I will not be waiting until April.

2.) I often find myself enraged by inconsequential things. Anyone who knows me well, or sits near me at work, knows this. On Saturday, I gave the finger to a man who honked at a stoplight because the woman in front of me didn’t start moving quickly enough once the light turned green. The man, a taxi driver, made a point to pull up next to me and roll his window down, staring angrily at me at the next stoplight. I didn’t say a word. But I did think to myself, “This guy could just shoot Amanda and me right now.” Of course, the satisfaction I felt was completely outweighed by the danger I put myself and my live-in life partner in. But I know that my irrational anger will never change. It’s part of the fabric that makes me who I am.

Today, I want to give the finger to a number of pundits, both real and wannabe (like me!). This has nothing to do with traffic lights. Instead, it focuses on the BCS National Championship. You’ll recall that a few weeks ago, LSU and Alabama played a tightly contested game in Tuscaloosa that Louisiana State University won 9-6 in overtime.

I enjoyed this game very much. I do not care for the game that Big XII fans call “football,” where teams line up 5 wide receivers and have a quarterback throw to one of them, followed by everyone running to the new line of scrimmage, and repeating. Over and over. For 4 hours. Never once stopping to think, “Hey, maybe we should try to slow the other team down.” That’s not football. I mean, it’s football. But Red Grange rolls over in his grave when he watches Baylor play Oklahoma State.

This coming Saturday, the Big XII’s two best teams will square off in Stillwater, Oklahoma. And if the host Cowboys of Oklahoma State win, the town criers will gather and scream and beg. Their cause? Not wanting to watch a football game.

You see, LSU is undefeated and, barring a highly unlikely blowout loss to Georgia on Saturday, will assuredly find itself in the BCS Championship in January. The other spot is up for grabs. Most people believe it comes down to Alabama (1 loss, to LSU) and Oklahoma State (1 loss, to something called Iowa State).

Not wanting to see a rematch of a game you did not enjoy is not a proper measuring stick for determining the second best team in the country. Schedules are. Alabama wiped a very good Arkansas team off the field (as did LSU). Alabama barely lost to the best college defense I’ve seen in over a decade (LSU). Alabama beat a good Penn State team (B.S. “Before Sandusky) on the road. Alabama beat a then ranked Florida team, rather easily, on the road. Oklahoma State lost to Iowa State, who (with one game to play) find themselves 6-5. They barely beat Texas A&M and nearly lost to Kansas State. They also blew out teams like Kansas, Arizona, and Louisiana-Lafayette (who are a combined 14-22 on the season).

The thing that separates Oklahoma State and Alabama above all else though is this: 27.3 vs. 8.8. Those numbers are the average points allowed by each team’s defense, per game. Guess which one is Alabama.

The town criers will shout too about Oklahoma State’s wonder of an offense. And it is very impressive. They really did a great job of scoring a lot of points this season. They averaged 49.8 points per game. Alabama, of course, must have put up some pretty paltry numbers though, because they only scored 6 points against LSU. Yes, the Crimson Tide only averaged a pedestrian 36 points per game.

A great injustice will be done to the University of Alabama if a group of rogue voters decide on Saturday night (presuming an Oklahoma State win, which I don’t think will happen anyway) that they want to be the directors of programming for ESPN. The right to vote in polls does not include the right to choose what games you want to watch. I’d love to see Houston play LSU. I know that’s unrealistic. I also know that Alabama is better than Houston. In a 1-off game, the Cougars could beat LSU or Alabama. If they played 100 times, though, they’d lose about 99 them. I feel similarly about Oklahoma State’s chances. Especially when you consider that their exact offense is derived from the one that Houston runs. And Houston has the better quarterback.

I’ll be rooting for either of two scenarios when the final BCS standings are released Sunday night: 1.) Oklahoma State would have lost and LSU would have won or 2.) The people who think they get to choose what games they want to see decide to vote the truly deserving team #2 overall and just leave their TVs off on January 9th. There will be plenty of other people watching a real football game that night.

The Myriad Consequences of Turning A Blind Eye

November 10, 2011 / Jason / 2 Comments

This is not about Joe Paterno, the football coach. This is only about Joe Paterno, the person.

This isn’t about Joe Paterno’s 409 career victories. This isn’t about Joe Paterno passing Amos Alonzo Stagg for most games coached in college football. This isn’t about anything that happens on the field at Beaver Stadium in State College, PA.

This is about the failings of human beings, across a number of fronts.

And it is about legacies.

I don’t need to rehash the story at Penn State. And I only feel it necessary to comment because of the anger it stirs in me.Anger that stretches beyond the actions of Jerry Sandusky. What Sandusky did, over the span of at least a decade, is enough for me to advocate for the death penalty. Thankfully, I know that his prison term, when it comes, will not last very long. He will be handled in an appropriate manner by his fellow convicts. The American justice system will have done its part.

This is about Joe Paterno, the human being. This is about his defenders. This is about people with misguided priorities.

Joe Paterno may very well be a nice man. I know, from watching sports and reading about sports, that he is, in fact, not quite Mr. Rogers. He’s also not Hitler. He’s somewhere in between, like most of us. Joe Paterno may be a giving man. He may be humble. He may write really nice handwritten notes to friends and give thoughtful gifts to people.

The one thing I know about Joe Paterno is that one day, in 2002, he exhibited horrendous judgement. And for that, he deserves to be removed of his title of Head Coach of Football at Pennsylvania State University. Given the information by Graduate Assistant and former QB Mike McQueary that former coach Jerry Sandusky had raped a young boy in the showers of the athletic facility, Paterno did not go to police. Given the opportunity to prevent further horrific exploitation of children, Paterno didn’t go to police. No one did. They allowed a friend, colleague, and alum to carry on. State it any way you would like. But if Paterno (or McQueary, or school officials) had gone to the authorities, dozens of victims may have been spared. Instead, Jerry Sandusky was asked to not bring any children onto the campus. Heaven forbid he rape children on campus when he could do it anywhere else. Out of sight….

I’m beyond disgusted by the failings of Joe Paterno. I don’t know why Paterno didn’t go to the police. He says that he wasn’t told of the “graphic nature” of the incident. He testified that McQueary told him (Paterno) that he saw Sandusky fondling the boy. Was that not enough for Paterno? Would he rather have heard the graphic details?

Today, the winningest coach in college football history announced his retirement, effective at the end of the season. The end of the season cannot come soon enough. No parent should have to send their 18 year old son into the care of a man and an organization who turned away from such actions. We spend a lot of time talking about scandal in college football. Usually a booster giving money to an impoverished kid in exchange for his national letter of intent. And we act like the world is ending. Like lives are truly destroyed by this.

Lives were destroyed by Jerry Sandusky. To the defenders of Joe Paterno, many of them his former players, I ask them to take a moment to examine the scope of this situation. This is not a rogue booster slipping an envelope to an 18 year old kid, his father, or a middleman. This is the guy down the hall. The alum. The former coach. This is a guy with an office in the facility. A guy who was inexplicably on campus as recently as last week. 9 years after Mike McQueary (now the team’s WR coach) walked in on him in a shower with a boy. It’s disgusting. It’s appalling. It’s embarrassing.

I’ve heard a lot in the last few days about Joe Paterno’s spirit. I’ve heard him called “a fighter.” I wonder what exactly he is fighting. He made an egregious mistake. Not a football mistake. A human mistake. And he deserves to be punished for it, legacy be damned. Joe Paterno would not be coaching my team this Saturday against Nebraska. And he would not be coaching any subsequent games.

People say that he doesn’t deserve that kind of ending. And in a sense, that’s true. Football coach Joe Paterno deserves a hero’s sendoff. Banquets and bouquets from folks across the Big 10. Football coach Joe Paterno deserves his name on Beaver Stadium. Football coach Joe Paterno deserves one last celebratory game in State College.

Human Joe Paterno deserves none of that.

Not Locked Out: A 2011-12 College Basketball Preview

November 8, 2011 / Jason / Leave a comment

If there has ever been a better year for college basketball, I wasn’t alive. Or at the very least aware enough. The sport is operating off of two winning tracks in 2011: (And the season gets underway tonight.)

1.) The best talent in the sport in almost 20 years:

-Something strange happened at the conclusion of last season. 3 of the game’s biggest stars (Ohio State’s Jared Sullinger, Kentucky’s Terrence Jones, and North Carolina’s Harrison Barnes) all decided to return to school rather than join the NBA. Whether that was to win a title this year or because of the impending NBA lockout isn’t really important. What’s important is that their back. And their returns are reflected in the Preseason Top 25 as well. 1. North Carolina, 2. Kentucky, 3. Ohio State.

-Outside of returning stars, as is the case every year, an influx of great freshman talent comes into the national periphery this season. Austin Rivers at Duke. Anthony Davis, Marquis Teague, and Michael Gilchrist at Kentucky. Andre Drummond at UConn. James McAdoo at North Carolina. And on. And on. A never ending list of 4 and 5 star talent. And each of those guys is expected to play a huge role on a National Championship contender.

2.) Hey, where’s the NBA?

-While the millionaires and billionaires argue about BRI (Basketball-Related Income) fans are left with a void when it comes to basketball. Where do they turn? Well, the answer is simple of course. It’s either college basketball or nothing. And because of the endless list of talent in the 2011-12 season, I think more people will watch the regular season than at any point in the last 20 years. So thank you, NBA lockout, for making college basketball better on two tracks this year.

Those of you who have read this blog since its inception (that’s just me) know that I rarely ever write an extensive college basketball preview. And this year isn’t really an exception. Trying to predict a college basketball season is very hard. In most sports, you have a season that determines something important. College basketball’s does not. 68 teams get into the tournament. Some of them are really mediocre. Others are really good. But once the postseason (March Madness) begins, it matters not what you did in the regular season. At all. There’s no home court advantage. There’s no Best-of-7. Or Best-of-5. If you finished the regular season 31-2, you are not guaranteed a run to the Final Four. In fact, in the second round, you might get face a team that poses stylistic matchup problems for your team. Or you might have to play near their campus. Or you might be playing in front of a hostile crowd, rooting for the upset. 31-2 matters not. Conference championships don’t either. It’s really all about March.

Now, that doesn’t mean we can’t enjoy November-early March. There will be a number of great games on the schedule. Must-watchers if you will, at least for the sheer excitement and talent level. Games in December can have rematches in March. And games in December can derail a team’s run to be one of the good, lucky, and mediocre 68. Here are 5 pre-March Madness games that are not to be missed:

1. North Carolina @ Kentucky (December 3, 2011)

We had the Game of the Century in college football this past weekend. This could be college basketball’s version. Both teams have tough games prior to this tilt (North Carolina against Wisconsin, Kentucky against Kansas and St. Johns). I expect both to be undefeated. If they are, this is the one not-to-miss in 2011-12.

2. North Carolina @ Duke (March 3, 2011)

They play in Chapel Hill in early February, but there’s something special about these games at Cameron Indoor. And this will be a special game.

3. Duke @ Ohio State (November 29, 2011)

The ACC/Big 10 challenge brings us this gem and one of the only potential hiccups for Ohio State before they begin conference play. For Duke, it’s their first true road game. A potential Final Four game.

4. UConn @ Syracuse (February 11, 2011)

The first of two meetings between the two rivals who should both be ranked in the Top 5 (and very possibly undefeated) when they square off on a Saturday afternoon.

5. Louisville @ Kentucky (December 31, 2011)

Not a bad way to end 2011. This is a big game for Rick Pitino. And that’s an understatement. The Cardinals have underachieved with a talented roster for the last few years. Bringing down a lot of people’s favorite to win it all would be a huge statement for Pitino and Louisville.

Also of note, North Carolina and Michigan State will play a game on a boat this Friday. The President will be there. Michigan State is not very good this year.

Projected Final Four

(just because it’s hard to predict, doesn’t mean I’m not going to try)

North Carolina

Kentucky

Ohio State

Duke

In the championship game, I’ll take the inside-out duo of Aaron Craft and Jared Sullinger over North Carolina’s star-studded front court.

Sleeper Four (Four teams outside of the Top 10 today who could be around in early April in New Orleans)

Baylor

Wisconsin

UCLA

Xavier

Oh, and let the NBA take their time. They can take the whole season as far as I’m concerned.

The Game of the Century

November 4, 2011 / Jason / Leave a comment

Twas September when last I waxed poetic about my dearest love, that beauty who consumeth so much of my Autumnal Saturdays. Much has changed….okay this is stupid.

Back in September I wrote that Wisconsin, “If they beat Nebraska, will be in great shape to get to New Orleans in January.” And while I’m not ruling out a trip by the Wisconsin Badgers to the Big Easy at some point in January, it certainly won’t be for the BCS National Championship. Unless they buy some tickets.

Back in September, I wrote that Oklahoma, “They’re a veteran group who is ready for the big time…” Apparently though, they’re not ready for a weather delay and a Texas Tech team who lost to Iowa State by 34 at home on Saturday.

Back in September, I didn’t write much about Alabama, save for a comment that it was “highly possible” that Arkansas could beat them. Arkansas lost 38-14.

Back in September, I wrote that Oklahoma State would lose to Texas A&M. They almost did. Since then, they’ve been unstoppable.

Back in September, I wrote that USC had looked “wholly beatable” to that point. And while they had, they sure looked like a top 10 team on Saturday night against Stanford.

In short, I really do know what I’m talking about. I promise this is true. I watch a lot of college football. I know my stuff. I’m just not terribly good at predicting my stuff.

But that hasn’t stopped me before….

This Saturday brings us the Game of the Century and what boils down to a National Semifinal (or perhaps the actual championship game). #1 LSU at #2 Alabama. The nation’s 3rd ranked defense at the nation’s top ranked defense. The nation’s 12th ranked offense at the nation’s 11th ranked offense. The nation’s top defensive player at the nation’s best running back. Two coaches with national championships. LSU’s current coach at LSU’s former coach. Over 100,000 people dressed in crimson and about 5,000 in purple. If you’d like to go, the cheapest of back-row end zone seats will run you $400 each. That’s in a stadium that seats about 107,000 people. If you’d like to sit on the 50-yard line, you might have to cancel little Jimmy’s college future. Truthfully, a decent seat is going to run you about $1000.

If you watch one college football game this year, watch this one. It’s rare that the regular season brings us a true 1 vs. 2 matchup. No matter who you think is better (my opinion in a moment) this is unquestionably a battle between the two best teams in the nation and perhaps the two best teams in a number of years. 8 p.m. this Saturday on your local CBS affiliate. If you’re unsure as to what the deal is with college football, you likely live in the northeast. You’re also likely not surrounded by very good college football. If you like pageantry, theater, plot twists, suspense, agony and ecstasy, do yourself a favor and empty out your date book this Saturday night. Mine has been empty for quite some time.

Right now, Alabama sits as a 5 point favorite in this game. This is a ludicrous line that should be closer to 2.5. I’d set it at 3. At the most. Both teams are essentially equals. Punishing defenses on both sides of the ball, populated by athletes you’ll be seeing in the NFL very soon. Some of whom would be NFL stars now. Alabama’s rushing offense is exceptional. LSU’s quarterback play is superior to Alabama’s. Sort of. In short, I think the offenses are a wash. This game will be won or lost on the defensive side of the ball. And because of that, I like LSU to win this game. Their ability to get to the ball and make game changing plays will define this game. I expect Alabama QB AJ McCarron to have a world of trouble with LSU’s front four. And if he can get past the front four, the back seven won’t be kind either. I like LSU to win the game 17-13. Every so often, one of these obvious defensive games winds up being an offensive shootout. Kind of like the bizarro version of last year’s BCS title game. This won’t be that. I see little way that this game won’t be the marquee, must-watch game that we’ve been waiting for. And if you’re looking for a player to watch, I’ll give you two. One, Tyrann Mathieu (aka The Honey Badger) is a Heisman candidate from the LSU secondary. His ability to get to the ball and make plays is astounding. And if you like absolute freaks of nature (in a good way) look no further than LSU defensive lineman Barkevious Mingo. Mingo is 6’5″. He weighs 240 LBS. He runs a 4.4 40-yard dash. Those numbers are correct. And both guys are true Sophomores.

My (Just Past Mid-Season) Power Rankings:

5. Boise State

Even I’m having a hard time making the argument for the Broncos this year. That schedule is nothing short of horrid with most of their games on Versus. And it’s made much worse when Boise struggles to beat a mediocre Air Force Academy. That said, the Broncos still possess a great defense and the nation’s second best college QB. And a brilliant coach. But I fear that if Boise is able to get to New Orleans, they might not be ready for it after a year of playing the Wyomings and UNLVs of the world.

4. Oklahoma State

I’m just very nervous that they’ll slip up against someone before the Bedlam Game (vs. Oklahoma in early December). If I had to guess, I’d go with the game at Iowa State on the 18th. A late Friday kickoff (9:00 eastern). The game before the biggest game in Oklahoma State history. Iowa State has been pesky and has gotten up for big games (see: the Iowa upset. Also: the beating they put on Texas Tech). I’m not quite a believer, as impressive as they’ve been. The offense is flawless. I wonder how long their defense can keep up the pace though.

3. Stanford

I’m a believer and they’ve been impressive. I’ll take a close win, on the road, against a really good football team over a blowout of a cupcake at home (I’m looking at you, OK State). To the people who said that Andrew Luck wasn’t impressive because he threw an interception, perhaps they should reevaluate their criteria for “Great QBs.” He was masterful in leading the Cardinal back at the end of regulation and in dismantling USC’s defense in OT. Each time I watch him play I fall in love again. And yes, there are other players on Stanford’s roster, but I assure you, if Andrew Luck wasn’t playing QB, they’d be a 4-4 team. Okay, with that schedule, maybe a 6-2 team.

1a. Alabama

I doubted them earlier in the season by excluding them from the top 5. That was a heinous oversight.

1. LSU

I doubted them in saying that West Virginia would upset them. That was a very heinous prediction.

But I promise you, I know what I’m talking about….

Quarterback Madness 2011

October 1, 2011 / Jason / 2 Comments

You may remember (and I pity you if you do) that last year I penned a piece pitting all of the NFL’s quarterbacks against each other in a battle of “who would you build your franchise around?” It’s not so much a question of “Who’s the best now?” And that’s important when you’re measuring rookies against established veterans.

Well, I want to do this again, but with some fixes. Instead of going with each teams’ current starting QB, I’m going to go with the one that each team views as their best QB. In the case of the Colts, that’s Peyton Manning. In the case of the Vikings, that’s Christian Ponder. For the Titans, I think it’s Matt Hasselbeck. The reason why it’s not Jake Locker is because there’s no chance he’s going to start a game this year. For the Vikings, what about Donovan McNabb has led you to believe that Christian Ponder, a four year college starter and Top 15 pick, isn’t going to get some starts? And if you disagree with this, I encourage you to tell me so.

The other change is that each QB will be seeded by his team’s current offensive scoring output. It’ll be like March Madness, just with 32 teams instead of 68. And I’ll make fun of people.

Each “region” will be named for aN NFL QB great. There’s no correlation between the name of the region and the players you see. In the semi-finals, the winners of the Otto Graham Region will play the winners of the Fran Tarkenton Region. Steve Young plays Warren Moon.

FIRST ROUND

OTTO GRAHAM REGION

1.) Ryan Fitzpatrick (Buffalo Bills)

8.) Matt Cassel (Kansas City Chiefs)

They’re the same age (Cassel is a few months older). Neither has won a playoff game. Neither has a shining resume. I take Fitzpatrick because it appears as though he’s trending upward, while Cassel simply exists. I think Cassel’s ceiling has been hit. Fitzpatrick could be the poor man’s Drew Brees, which isn’t bad at all.

4.) Tony Romo (Dallas Cowboys)

5.) Jay Cutler (Chicago Bears)

Earlier this season, after the Jets collapse, all we heard about was how Tony Romo wasn’t clutch. Romo quieted those people by playing through the pain of a fractured rib and a punctured lung, leading the Cowboys to their 2-1 record. Meanwhile, Jay Cutler, in the biggest game of his life, sat on the sidelines because his knee hurt.

3.) Mark Sanchez (New York Jets)

6.) Matt Hasselbeck (Tennessee Titans)

Sanchez. Mark’s ceiling might be Matt Hasselbeck, but he’s still 11 years younger.

2.) Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers)

7.) Peyton Manning (Indianapolis Colts)

If you want to talk about “not even close…” Look Aaron Rodgers is going to win this thing. You know it and I know it. Peyton might never play again and he’s only here because the Colts never thought it was important to build for their future.

STEVE YOUNG REGION

1.) Tom Brady (New England Patriots)

8.) Blaine Gabbert (Jacksonville Jaguars)

Gabbert’s youth is enticing. His “not really good” is less enticing.

4.) Rex Grossman (Washington Redskins)

5.) Cameron Newton (Carolina Panthers)

Part of what led Newton to two 400 yard passing games to start his career was that he threw the ball a ton. And he wasn’t necessarily pretty. This week he managed a game and led the Panthers to victory. If Newton can find a balance between the two, he has every tool to win this thing in a few years. For now, he’s certainly good enough to beat Rex Grossman.

3.) Michael Vick (Philadelphia Eagles)

6.) Kyle Orton (Denver Broncos)

Vick is the most dynamic QB in football. And even though he’s shown to be a little brittle, Kyle Orton woke up today and he was still Kyle Orton.

2.) Jason Campbell (Oakland Raiders)

7.) Chad Henne (Miami Dolphins)

That either of these guys gets to the Round of 16 is unfortunate for nearly every QB who will lose in Round 1. Campbell by a hair.

WARREN MOON REGION

1.) Drew Brees (New Orleans Saints)

8.) Tavaris Jackson (Seattle Seahawks)

There is no greater disparity in this bracket.

4.) Phillip Rivers (San Diego Chargers)

5.) Matt Ryan (Atlanta Falcons)

When it worked out that these two faced each other, I was very intrigued. Then I remembered that Matt Ryan has yet to take the next turn in his career. And Rivers is still only 29.

3.) Eli Manning (New York Giants)

6.) Kevin Kolb (Arizona Cardinals)

With Manning, you know what you’re getting. I think Kolb can be a serviceable NFL starter. Manning already is a serviceable QB. I continue to believe that if Eli’s last name was Smith, he wouldn’t be as highly regarded as he is. Against Kolb, it wouldn’t really matter what his last name was.

2.) Matt Schaub (Houston Texans)

7.) Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh Steelers)

Do you take the boring, accurate, prototypical QB who hasn’t been to the playoffs or the big, oafish, twice-accused of sexual assault, two-time Super Bowl winning QB? That’s not really as hard as I thought.

FRAN TARKENTON REGION

1.) Matthew Stafford (Detroit Lions)

8.) Sam Bradford (Saint Louis Rams)

Bradford’s development seems slightly retarded (I just wanted to type that word in an unoffensive context that would make readers do a double take) this season. Meanwhile, Stafford is the early season MVP favorite in my book. And still only 23 years old.

4.) Colt McCoy (Cleveland Browns)

5.) Josh Freeman (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

Against most of the other competition here, I’d take either McCoy or Freeman. Against each other, I take the flashier guy. The one who has shown an almost strange ability to make things happen in the clutch. That’s Freeman.

3.) Alex Smith (San Francisco 49ers)

6.) Christian Ponder (Minnesota Vikings)

I’ll take the guy who hasn’t taken an NFL snap over Alex Smith.

2.) Joe Flacco (Baltimore Ravens)

7.) Andy Dalton (Cincinnati Bengals)

I’m still not certain that we’ve seen Flacco’s ceiling, whereas with Ryan, I think we may have. Flacco appears to be capable of great passing performances (Weeks 1 and 3 for example) but he’s also capable of playing like Andy Dalton (Week 2 for example). Still, Andy Dalton is Andy Dalton. He’s an accurate QB with little flash who likely won’t be the starter in Cincinnati in 5 years.

THE SWEET (AND IN SOME SPOTS, TERRIBLE) 16

OTTO GRAHAM REGION

1.) Ryan Fitzpatrick

4.) Tony Romo

Look, I love the idea of a Harvard QB just as much as the next guy, but Romo is still the better play. Even if he isn’t “clutch.” Can you tell I hate that narrative? I really hate that narrative.

3.) Mark Sanchez

2.) Aaron Rodgers

Mark Sanchez, I’m sure, is a very nice young man. He’s incredibly handsome and he’s a decent QB. Top 15, maybe. Aaron Rodgers is in a class that Mark Sanchez will never reach.

STEVE YOUNG REGION

1.) Tom Brady

5.) Cameron Newton

This gets a little murky now. I think Tom Brady probably has another 2-3 years after this of top level QB play. But he’s also in a situation where he has two capable, young backups who may take his job sooner than that, because they’re much, much cheaper. Newton is young (22) and has tools that only a few other QBs have ever had in NFL history. He’s a faster, quicker version of Daunte Culpepper in his prime, with Warren Moon arm strength, and a Tom Brady smile. Next year, this might be a Newton victory. This year, it’s still Brady.

3.) Michael Vick

2.) Jason Campbell

This year, next year, and forever, this will be Vick.

WARREN MOON REGION

1.) Drew Brees

4.) Phillip Rivers

I LOVE this matchup. The Chargers, you will remember, drafted Rivers when Brees was still there, having not developed quickly enough for them. As soon as San Diego did this, Brees became an elite QB. As it turns out, they chose wisely with Rivers too. The answer here lies in age. Brees, a Super Bowl winner and NFL MVP, is only 2 years older than Rivers. Until Phillip Rivers wins something other than a regular season game, I want Brees. Unlike the Chargers.

3.) Eli Manning

7.) Ben Roethlisberger

Either of these guys can lose you a game by standing in the pocket for too long. Either of these guys (as they’ve done a combined 3 teams) can lead you to the Super Bowl. I’ll take the guy with 2 rings who’s a year younger.

FRAN TARKENTON REGION

1.) Matthew Stafford

5.) Josh Freeman

Freeman, it needs to be said, is a great game manager. He doesn’t throw a ton of interceptions and he comes through in the clutch. Stafford, though, is a different class of QB. He looks like he’s about to take his game up another level. That level would be the A-level.

6.) Christian Ponder

2.) Joe Flacco

Joe Flacco.

THE MOSTLY ELITE 8

OTTO GRAHAM REGION

4.) Tony Romo

2.) Aaron Rodgers

Some would say that I overrate Romo, and that may be true. But I do feel he belongs in a conversation of the top 8 QBs in the NFL. He does not, however, belong in a conversation where he beats Aaron Rodgers.

STEVE YOUNG REGION

1.) Tom Brady

3.) Michael Vick

Vick, when healthy is the most dynamic player in the NFL and can change the game in ways that even Brady cannot. The problem with Vick (his fatal flaw….other than a total lack of marketability because he slaughtered dogs) is that he gets hit too much and has not proven to be durable. Some might say, “But Brady is older! Vick still has a lot of good years ahead of him!” Tom Brady is 3 years older than Vick. This is true. That Vick has suffered more diagnosed concussions this season than Brady has in his career, is the issue to me. And that’s why Brady advances.

WARREN MOON REGION

1.) Drew Brees

7.) Ben Roethlisberger

There’s really not a lot of debate here. Brees is a better QB. He might be older than Roethlisberger, but the divide in skill is wider than that in age. And then there’s the question of who you’d rather market: The nice, friendly, handsome, family man or the guy who has been twice accused of sexually assaulting women.

FRAN TARKENTON REGION

1.) Matthew Stafford

2.) Joe Flacco

This isn’t even close to me. Stafford is more accurate, has just as strong of an arm, and is three years younger. Stafford has also shown a consistence in his short career that Flacco hasn’t. Stafford’s injury-proneness is a fear, but not enough for me to take Flacco here.

FINAL FOUR

Aaron Rodgers

Matthew Stafford

I’ve already stated that Aaron Rodgers is going to win this, but it’s worth noting that Stafford (albeit with a pretty favorable draw) finds himself here in this group of QBs. He’s not there yet. In fact, he’s not even close, realistically. But he’s more than on pace, at 23 years of age, to truly belong in a discussion with Rodgers, Brees, and Brady.

Drew Brees

Tom Brady

Brady is a year and a half older than Brees. Not nearly enough to move Brees past Brady for the age reason. I’m inclined to go with Brady right away because his numbers are better in nearly every way, he’s a three-time Super Bowl winner, etc. But as the years go on, I grow to dislike something about Brady more and more. He evokes a certain Alex Rodriguez-esque quality. Like he takes himself a little too seriously. Brees, on the other hand, is an active member of the community, not strewn across the covers of supermarket rags, who is so easy to root for. With Brady, I think he’s getting bored with football. I don’t see Brees doing that. And so, somewhat hesitantly, I take Brees.

THE AARON RODGERS CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND

Aaron Rodgers

Drew Brees

Aaron Rodgers, not yet 28, is the most accurate QB in football. He possesses the things that make each of the NFL’s best, great. He’s smart like Manning, ruthless like old Tom Brady, mobile enough to make plays happen from nothing, and he’s only getting better. Unlike his predecessor in Green Bay, he seems to only help the Packers win, never facilitating a loss with a bad decision. There’s no quarterback, or player, I’d rather have on my team in the NFL today than Aaron Rodgers. And to rub salt, here are some of the players drafted before Rodgers in the first round of the 2005 NFL Draft:

1.) Alex Smith QB/49ers-Think they’d like a do-over?

6.) Pacman Jones KR/Titans-The consummate professional.

7.) Troy Williamson WR/Vikings- Yes, him.

10.) Mike Williams WR/Lions- It only took a few years for him to reach his ceiling (middling WR for terrible Seattle Seahawks)

14.) Thomas Davis LB/Panthers- You’re forgiven for not knowing who he is.

And then this list, beginning at #16, up to Rodgers at 24:

Travis Johnson

David Pollack-Hey, he has a TV show now…

Erasmus James-Minnesota would like to Erasmus this pick…..

Alex Barron

Marcus Spears-A serviceable player. Certainly the best of this crop.

Matt Jones- He of, QB to WR to unemployed fame. The only targets he’s getting now are from police.

Mark Clayton

Fabian Washington

That’s at least 13 GMs who should be out of work today for passing on Aaron Rodgers.

College Football: 1/4 Season Recap and Bold Prediction

September 23, 2011 / Jason / Leave a comment

Three weeks into the college football season (somehow a quarter of the way there for some teams) and very little clarity has taken hold. Two teams previously thought to have a chance at a National Championship game appearance have thrown themselves out of the swimming pool because of losses (Oregon to LSU and Florida State to Oklahoma). While neither team is now disqualified for a BCS National Championship appearance, neither is in very good shape. Florida State will play one more high profile regular season game (against Florida to end the season). Oregon as well plays one more high profile game (at Stanford in November). Each just needs to keep winning and hope that those above them come out flat one week.

Florida State and Oregon will get some relief on Saturday when Oklahoma State and Texas A&M square off in what boils down to an early season BCS eliminator game (I still think Texas A&M wins that one). In fact, Saturday’s schedule could clear a lot of things up. Or muddy the water further. Arkansas will face off against Alabama as they play the murderer’s row portion of their schedule (the following week they travel to Arlington, TX to play Texas A&M). A win by Arkansas over Alabama (highly possible) will vault them into the National Championship discussion and could set us up for a huge elimination style game the next week.

But we’re not going to talk about the “What if’s?”. I’m more concerned with right now. Here are my top 5 teams in the country, based on where we sit right now. Who they’ve beaten. How they’ve looked.

5. Wisconsin

-They haven’t exactly played the 2005 Texas Longhorns thus far, but they’ve looked great in pummeling some of the worst teams in FBS (UNLV, Oregon State, and Northern Illinois). Wisconsin’s biggest test will come in 8 days when they host Nebraska at Camp Randall Stadium.

For Wisconsin, the thing that makes them the most dangerous is their quarterback. As I said in the college football preview, Russell Wilson gives the Badgers something they’ve lacked for years: a real, living quarterback who can do things. Wilson is the best quarterback in the Big 10 and it’s not even close. He’s good enough to win games for a Wisconsin team that also has a great defense and a terrific running game. If they beat Nebraska, they’ll be in great shape to get to New Orleans in January.

4. Stanford

-Andrew Luck. And also, Andrew Luck.

Not only did Stanford take care of their only early challenge (at an Arizona team that I’ve grossly overrated), but they did it easily. Luck has been machine-like so far, posting a 67% completion pct, while throwing for 786 yards in 3 games, with an 8:1 TD to INT ratio. You know, just like Andrew Luck. Stanford is off this week before four straight games against the weak links of the Pac 12. They should be 7-0 heading into a game against a USC team that has looked wholly beatable this season.

3. Boise State

-People, as is their wont, will say that the Georgia win means nothing. They’re wrong. They’ll also say the trouncing of Toledo is nothing to crow about. They’re wrong. Boise has faced two opponents this season and dominated them both. And that’s all they’ll need to do to get to New Orleans as far as I’m concerned. You cannot, in good conscience, leave an undefeated Boise State team out of the national championship game at the benefit of a one-loss any conference team. Not with Chris Peterson. Not with Kellen Moore. Not with the years of success they’ve had. The BCS is supposed to be about having the two best teams in the country face each other for a championship. If Boise is undefeated at season’s end, they’re one of those two best teams.

2. Oklahoma

-The offense didn’t look particularly swift in beating Florida State on Saturday night. And the defense didn’t exactly have to contend with a machine in the FSU offense. But the Sooners looked solid. They got to FSU QB EJ Manuel. They caused turnovers. And they won handily, on the road, something they haven’t done much recently. And they did it without Landry Jones playing his best game at QB. The rest of the schedule is a challenge (games against Oklahoma State and Texas A&M namely, not to mention the rivalry game against a Texas team who is much better now with Colt McCoy II at QB.). The Sooners are a very good team. They’re a veteran group who is ready for the big time. That schedule, though, is filled with big time.

1. Louisiana State

-No one has impressed more than LSU in the first 3 weeks of the season. They trounced Oregon in Dallas and manhandled Mississippi State in Starkville. They’ve looked like world beaters.

They are not world beaters. There’s a formula for beating LSU. It involves spreading the field to throw short. The Tigers secondary is their weakest link. The Tigers dared Oregon to pass, but Darron Thomas is not Joey Harrington. The Ducks tried to attack the deep secondary and got pummeled. The formula for beating LSU will be on display Saturday in Morgantown, West Virginia when the Mountaineers shock a lot of people by beating LSU. Dana Holgerson (and his fabulous hair) has the system best served to beat a team like LSU. Speed and a capable quarterback. Don’t be surprised if West Virginia only runs the ball 8 times on Saturday. You don’t beat LSU by running the ball. You beat them by throwing it and making Jarrett Lee, LSU’s much maligned 9th year senior QB, throw the ball. For now, the Tigers occupy the top spot here. Come next Monday, that won’t be the case.

2011 NFL Predictions

September 7, 2011 / Jason / 1 Comment

Remember my NCAA preview and it’s mind-numbing length? Let’s be pithy with the NFL preview. And instead of calling it a “preview” we’ll call it “pithy predictions.” We’ve all got things to do.

AFC

East

1. New York Jets

(The defense is still very good and I tend to think we’ll see Mark Sanchez take the next step and enter the B-level QB club with guys like Matt Schaub and Eli Manning. And that’s pretty scary if you know who Matt Schaub is.)

2. New England Patriots

(Originally my Super Bowl pick, I then remembered they haven’t won a playoff game since the Super Bowl loss to the Giants. And this team looks an awful lot like last year’s team.)

3. Buffalo Bills

(They will be much improved this year. They could be an 8-8 football team.)

4. Miami Dolphins

(They won’t be an 8-8 football team. But hey, Andrew Luck!)

North

1. Pittsburgh Steelers

(Surprise: They’re very good.)

2. Cleveland Browns

(Surprise: I think they’re a playoff team and Colt McCoy will be a big reason why.)

3. Baltimore Ravens

(They’re a little old on the defensive side of the ball and a lot boring on the other side. Not a winning formula.)

4. Cincinnati Bengals

(Whatever they’re doing is not a winning formula. But hey, Andrew Luck!)

South

1. Tennessee Titans

(Because I’m crazy enough to believe that Matt Hasselbeck has one more inexplicable year in him.)

2. Houston Texans

(I’m not quite ready to put a team that has never made the playoffs in the Super Bowl. Sorry.)

3. Indianapolis Colts

(Not so much because of Peyton Manning’s neck. More so because they’re “not very good” defensively.)

4. Jacksvonville Jaguars

(Blaine Gabbert-Be warned about how they treat QBs. And you’re not even a good one.)

West

1. San Diego Chargers

(They’re so much better than the other 3 teams in this division, they shouldn’t even have to play them.)

2. Kansas City Chiefs

(Like the Houston Texans, except they actually made the playoffs last year.)

3. Denver Broncos

(I like Kyle Orton. But there’s not a lot here to help him.)

4. Oakland Raiders
(I don’t like Jason Campbell and there’s really not much to help him. But hey, Andrew Luck!)

AFC Playoffs

#3. Pittsburgh Steelers over #6. New England Patriots

#5 Cleveland Browns over #4. Tennessee Titans

#3 Pittsburgh Steelers over #1 San Diego Chargers

#2 New York Jets over #5 Cleveland Browns

#2 New York Jets over #3 Pittsburgh Steelers

NFC

East

1. Philadelphia Eagles

(They’re not as good as everyone thinks, but that’s just because they’re not going 16-0.)

2. Dallas Cowboys

(They’re the Cheesecake Factory of football teams. A little bit of everything. Not particularly great anywhere. Very loud.)

3. New York Giants

(They’re the Red Lobster of football teams. That’s to say, I have no interest in Red Lobster.)

4. Washington Redskins

(They’re the “Eating from the dumpster outside of Applebee’s” of football teams. But hey, Andrew Luck.)

North

1. Green Bay Packers

(They’re better than last year. They happened to win the Super Bowl last year. But will they be hungry?)

2. Detroit Lions

(The greatest team to ever play football despite having no defensive secondary to speak of. The hopes are a little too high.)

3. Minnesota Vikings

(There’s no team in 2011 that I’d rather not watch.)

4. Chicago Bears

(I smell a giant disaster coming out of Soldier Field. That should be fun to watch.)

South

1. Atlanta Falcons

(I’m driving the bandwagon. Hope aboard.)

2. New Orleans Saints

(A trendy pick for a team with a stable of unhealthy running backs, streaky wide receivers, and a middle-of-the-pack defense.)

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

(Want to watch a team fall hard this year? Watch the Bears. Want to watch a team buy into their hype only to finish 7-9? Watch Tampa.)

4. Carolina Panthers

(They’ll win 5 games. Cam Newton will have a lot to do with that.)

West

1. St. Louis Rams

(Because it won’t be anyone else.)

2. Arizona Cardinals

(Not a wild card team. But hey, Kevin Kolb?)

3. San Francisco 49ers

(Not a wild card team. But hey, Andrew Luck.)

4. Seattle Seahawks

(Not a wild card team. But hey, Andrew Luck.)

NFC Playoffs

#3 Philadelphia Eagles over #6 Detroit Lions

#5 Dallas Cowboys over #4 St. Louis Rams

#1 Green Bay Packers over #5 Dallas Cowboys

#2 Atlanta Falcons over #3 Philadelphia Eagles

#1 Green Bay Packers over #2 Atlanta Falcons

SUPER BOWL WHATEVER NUMBER THIS IS

New York Jets over Green Bay Packers

NFL MVP: Phillip Rivers

NFL Offensive Player of the Year: Phillip Rivers

NFL Defensive Player of the Year: Ndamukong Suh

NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year: Julio Jones

NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year: Marcell Dareus

NFL Coach of the Year: Pat Shurmur

2011 College Football Preview or How Many Tattoos Can I Get For My Autographed John Jaha Baseball?

August 27, 2011 / Jason / Leave a comment

I began last year’s college football preview with a bit about how I was not particularly exuberant for the start of the season. I will not begin this season’s preview with the same sentiment. In fact, you will see from the over 6,000 words below, that I am very excited for the 2011 season.

We enter the college football season with story lines galore. From Andrew Luck returning for his junior year at Stanford, to Ohio State’s fall from grace, to Miami’s nostalgia for the days of the “U”, to Oregon’s quest to avenge last year’s National Championship game loss, to Alabama’s QB situation, to Brady Hoke taking over at Michigan, to conference realignment.

I’d like to start with Andrew Luck though because frankly, first is a place he should get used to. In April of 2012, barring a tragedy, he’ll be the NFL’s #1 overall pick. He’s the most polished quarterback since Peyton Manning. Impeccably accurate, blessed with a strong arm, blessed with size, and, unlike Manning, as athletic a pocket passer as you’ll ever see. In fact, the Manning comparison isn’t quite apt, as far as quarterbacks go. He’s much more like Aaron Rodgers. Just bigger. And faster. And at this point in his career, a better QB.

To me though, what sets Luck apart is his decision making off the field. You will not read Andrew Luck’s name in newspaper clippings (because you don’t read newspapers) about bar fights. He won’t be taking money from, as former University of Miami coach Jimmy Johnson calls them, “jock sniffers.” He won’t be beating up women. He won’t be driving drunk. What he will be doing is attaining his degree, from Stanford no less, in Architectural Design and Engineering. Not Communication Studies. Not Family Studies. Not “Undeclared.” No, Luck, a Junior, will be graduating in May with a degree in Architectural Design and Engineering. All while quarterbacking a major college program looking for their first National Championship since 1926 and their third consecutive winning season (all under Luck).

Of course, the loudest story line coming into the 2011 season won’t be Andrew Luck’s return. It will instead be scandal. Scandals at Ohio State, Miami, and Oregon. I need not rehash any of these stories in great detail. The Buckeyes lost their head coach and quarterback to a memorabilia selling scandal. The Hurricanes are facing major sanctions from the NCAA after a convicted felon confessed to having given dozens of Canes players money and cars while they were playing at the school. And the Ducks recently released a running back recruit who was brought to the school by a shady Texan street agent named Willie Lyles, who confessed to a $25,000 payment to him by the Ducks head coach, Chip Kelly. And yes, that’s actually the man’s name. Willie Lyles. “Shady” and guys named “Willie Lyles” go hand-in-hand. You’d almost assuredly hear the phrase “smooth talking” used to describe a man named Willie Lyles. Back to business.

The Oregon recruiting scandal will be a bit of a black cloud hanging over the program as they will assuredly contend for a National Championship in 2011. The biggest question marks come in the form of replacing star WR Jeffrey Maehl and revamping an offensive line that got thinner following graduations. The Ducks, though, do return starting QB Darron Thomas and the electric running back tandem of LaMichael James and Kenjon Barner, Though the 2011 schedule will be a tough road to hoe. More on that later, though.

Alabama is, without question, one of the best teams on paper in college football. There is one glaring shortcoming though in Tuscaloosa (time will tell if it is a major or minor one): Quarterback. The Crimson Tide lost Greg McElroy to graduation and come into the 2011 season with the inexperienced AJ McCarron and the even more inexperienced Phillip Sims. McCarron is a lanky pocket passer. Sims is a strong armed freshman with some mobility. McCarron is the only of the two with any SEC experience. And it wasn’t a very good show, as he came in for the injured McElroy in last year’s Iron Bowl and was unable to rally Alabama from behind to beat the eventual National Champions, Auburn. I have a feeling that Alabama coach Nick Saban will go with McCarron initially, hoping to not lose any games (a road test at Penn State looms in Week 2) before eventually turning to Sims out of necessity. I don’t anticipate great things from McCarron. Sims could be great. Luckily for Alabama, their defense should be good enough to hide the QB growing pains before the SEC schedule begins in earnest on September 24th against Arkansas.

Brady Hoke is taking over at Michigan. People will talk a lot about this, because it’s Michigan and Hoke, San Diego State’s former Head Coach, is a relative unknown to most. They’ll talk about his no-nonsense approach. A lunch pail attitude in Ann Arbor. A different kind of Shoelace (Michigan QB Denard Robinson, who, if you weren’t aware, plays with untied shoes). Michigan will go 7-5. The more things change….

The other annoying story line that you’ll hear lots about is conference realignment. The Big 12 now has 10 teams. The Big 10 now has 12 teams. The Pac-10 is now the Pac12. Boise State moved from the WAC to the Mountain West. Texas Christian is moving from the Mountain West after the season to the Big East. Brigham Young is now a football independent, much like Notre Dame is. Got it? Who’s ready for some football?

ACC

Always a boring place to start, but my life philosophy is to always get the tough stuff out of the way first. And if there’s anything tougher than staying interested in the ACC, well, it’s staying interested in the Big East.

Much like any other year in the Atlantic Coast Conference, it seemingly comes down to two teams: Virginia Tech and Florida State. What makes 2011 different, I guess, is that Florida State is the clear favorite to win the conference and to contend for a National Championship. The Seminoles and Hokies do not play in the regular season, though it appears very likely we’ll see them meet in Charlotte/Jacksonville/Tampa/Macon/Wherever the ACC Championship is held this year, in December. Virginia Tech’s toughest conference test will be a home game on Octoer 8th against Miami, who at that point in the season may have already imploded. Even having lost starting QB Tyrod Taylor, Virginia Tech should be able to run the table during their regular season. Which says more about the ACC than it does Virginia Tech.

Florida State’s road is tougher than Virginia Tech’s and involves a non-conference showdown against the nation’s #1 team, Oklahoma. Last year, the Sooners took the ‘Noles to the woodshed, beating them in OK by 30. This year, the ‘Noles are better and hosting the Sooners. I’ll write a little bit about the non conference schedule later, but just know that this is one of two potential National Championship matchups that we’ll see in September.

Maryland and North Carolina State are the in-conference “contenders.” Maryland brings in former UConn coach Randy Edsall to lead an experienced team coming off of a 9-4 season. North Carolina State is led by coach Tom O’Brien, who may be on the hottest seat in the nation. He’ll need to get a lot out of super-recruit Mike Glennon to have a shot at the ACC Atlantic Division title. I doubt it will happen for either.

Atlantic Division (conference records in parenthesis)

1. Florida State (8-0)

2. North Carolina State (5-3)

3. Maryland (5-3)

4. Clemson (4-4)

5. Boston College (3-5)

6. Wake Forest (0-8)

Coastal Division

1. Virginia Tech (8-0)

2. North Carolina (6-2)

3. Georgia Tech (4-4)

4. Miami (4-4)

5. Duke (1-7)

6. Virginia (1-7)

ACC Championship: Florida State over Virginia Tech 28-13

Big East

The Big East does not deserve to be mentioned here. If I’m going to talk about the Big East, I may as well talk about the Sun Belt Conference. Regardless, predicted order of finish and thus, victim in the Orange Bowl, to follow.

1. West Virginia (6-1)

2. South Florida (5-2)

3. Cincinnati (4-3)

4. Pittsburgh (4-3)

5. Louisville (4-3)

6. Connecticut (3-4)

7. Syracuse (2-5)

8. Rutgers (1-6)

Big 12 (The One With 10 Teams)

The Big 12 lost two Northern Division members (and thus, the divisions) to the Pac 12 (Colorado) and Big 10 (the one with 12 teams) (Nebraska). The loss of Colorado hurts like a feather blowing onto your arm in the cool summer breeze. In fact, most people will not notice that Colorado has gone west, so to speak. The loss of Nebraska hurts this conference more though. Nebraska was a traditional Big 8 (the previous incarnation of the Big 12) team and the standard bearer of the conference. Losing Nebraska hurts the Big 12’s credibility in the long-term. In the short-term, it means that Oklahoma, Missouri, Oklahoma State, and Texas A&M don’t have to compete with the Husker’s strong D. Instead, they can make like the Big 12 does (of late) and have a good ol’ fashioned, 4 hour, no huddle shootout every Saturday afternoon.

For a conference historically aligned with option rushing attacks and powerful rush defenses, the Big 12 certainly doesn’t look like it is supposed to. The above teams (in addition to Baylor, Texas Tech, and Texas) have no intention to ground and pound. The Big 12’s best teams do it in the air with no huddle offenses, five wide receiver sets, and 400 yard passing days. And the conference features a handful of very good QBs.

If you’re going to start somewhere, you start with the Oklahoma Sooners who will begin 2011 as the #1 rated team in the country. The Sooners are led by New Mexico native Landry Jones at QB. Jones has made great strides in his career since taking over for an injured Sam Bradford in a 2009 loss to BYU. In that game, Jones looked like the Freshman that he was. Jones is a lanky, fairly polished passer with the best WR duo in college football in Ryan Broyles and Kenny Stills. Jones took huge steps forward last year, passing for 4700 yards and 38 TDs. It’s very likely that 2011 could be a 5,000 yard season for the Junior.

Not to be forgotten about in the Sooner State is 27 year old Oklahoma State QB Brandon Weeden and his primary target, receiver Justin Blackmon. Oklahoma State was second in the nation (Oklahoma was third) in passing yards in 2010 and that will not change too much in 2011, despite losing their Offensive Coordinator ,Dana Holgorsen, to a head coaching job in West Virginia. Blackmon is a future first round NFL draft pick with great hands and good speed. Weeden is a smart and accurate passer. Smart because he throws to Blackmon. And accurate because, well, he throws to Blackmon.

Further south, down in the Lone Star State, is Ryan Tannehill at Texas A&M, Tannehill, a wide receiver coming into 2010, took over for senior QB Jerrod Johnson last season against Kansas and led the Aggies to the Cotton Bowl, winning 6 of 7 games, including a win in Austin over rival Texas. Tannehill returns in 2011 leading the more balanced (than the Oklahoma kids) Aggies into a season with the highest of expectations in College Station. Tannehill may not be the passer that Jones and Weeden are, but he makes up for that with his mobility and arm strength.

Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas A&M all enter the season ranked in the Top 10, all expected by their fan bases to win the conference. The Sooners play at Oklahoma State, but host the Aggies. The Cowboys host the Sooners, but play at the Aggies. And, well, you can figure out Texas A&M’s scenario (I hope).

The Cowboys have the toughest road, playing 5 conference games on the road. Oklahoma does as well, but the Sooners get the advantage of playing the conference’s fourth best team, Missouri, at home. We’ll find out very early on which team, between the Cowboys and Aggies, has the inside track to challenging the Sooners for the conference title. OK State and Texas A&M play in College Station on September 24th. I expect an A&M victory. I do not, however, expect an Aggie victory in Norman. Nor do I expect a Cowboy victory over their arch rival. Oklahoma is a notch ahead of both the Aggies and Cowboys defensively. All of these games will be close, but a 51-48 victory is just as good as a 17-14 one.

1. Oklahoma (9-0)

2. Texas A&M (8-1)

3. Oklahoma State (7-2)

4. Missouri (6-3)

5. Texas (5-4)

6. Baylor (4-5)

7. Texas Tech (3-6)

8. Kansas State (2-7)

9. Kansas (1-8)

10. Iowa State (0-9)

Big 10 (The One With 12 Teams)

Taking a page from the Big 12, stylistically (the other thing they’ve taken is Nebraska), the Big 10 tried to become a passing league last year, seemingly out of nowhere. Michigan State, led by Kirk Cousins had a solid 11-2 campaign. Northwestern, while they finished just a game over .500 became interesting to watch thanks to the passing prowess of Dan Persa. Still, the Spartans and Wildcats are outliers in a league where teams want to run the football. Wisconsin found itself in last year’s Rose Bowl thanks to a top 25 rushing offense and a top 25 overall defense, in the classic Big 10 mold. Likewise for Sugar Bowl participant Ohio State. Same story for Nebraska who was top 10 nationally in rushing offense and scoring defense (while playing in the electric, aerial Big 12).

The biggest story line for 2011 in the Big 10, even with the addition of Nebraska, is the fall of the Ohio State Buckeyes. Still, those expecting a precipitous dropoff in Columbus will be left disappointed. The Buckeyes are still loaded with 5 star recruits and even if receiver DeVier Posey and starting running back Dan Herron are suspended for the first four games, the only challenges are a game at a Miami team that may have already given up, and then an October 1st game in East Lansing against Michigan State that I wouldn’t have picked Ohio State to win even with Terrelle Pryor and Jim Tressel. I expect the Buckeyes to contend. But they’ll be contending for a trip to the Alamo Bowl. Still, a success given where they’re starting.

The best team in the conference in my opinion is the newest member. Nebraska brings one of the nation’s best defenses and a spread option run attack that worked very well against the Big 10’s slower defenses at Michigan under Rich Rodriguez. The problem with Michigan was that their defense was terrible. Nebraska’s won’t be. And the schedule favors the Huskers with only one true road test, at the conference’s second best team, Wisconsin, on October 1.

Wisconsin comes into the season fairly under the radar for a team that represented the conference in the Rose Bowl last year and has the highest profile transfer under center. Former North Carolina State QB Russell Wilson left the Wolfpack after last season and now finds himself in Madison. He is without question the best QB at Wisconsin in over a decade. Wilson is fully capable of winning games in the air or on the ground. He’s nowhere near as dynamic as Denard Robinson in Ann Arbor, but he’s more effective. And with 4 years as a starting QB under his belt, Wilson knows how to play the position at this level. He gives the Badgers something that they have lacked for quite some time: a QB capable of doing more than managing games. Wilson can win them.

Of course, with the Big 10 possessing 12 teams, there’s a conference championship game, which sets us up for a possible rematch between the Huskers and Badgers in December. On a neutral field, I like Nebraska’s athleticism over the Badgers’ physicality. I think Wisconsin wins the regular season game thanks to the home field advantage.. But that won’t send them to the Rose Bowl this year.

Legends Division

1. Nebraska (7-1)

2. Michigan State (6-2)

3. Northwestern (6-2)

4. Michigan (4-4)

5. Minnesota (3-5)

6. Iowa (2-6)

Leaders Division

1. Wisconsin (8-0)

2. Ohio State (5-3)

3. Penn State (4-4)

4. Illinois (3-5)

5. Purdue (1-7)

6. Indiana (0-8)

Big 10 Championship: Nebraska over Wisconsin 13-10

Pac 12

Much like last season, I think the Pac 12 is the second best conference in America. This is due in large part to the wide swath of talent. The Pac 12 features three elite teams (Oregon, Stanford, and USC) and a group of teams with potential to contend for a conference title (Utah, Washington, and Arizona). Of course, there are the bottom feeders (Washington State and Colorado). But the top level talent in the Pac 12, especially offensively, is there. And unlike the Big 12 (the one with 10), these teams can play some defense.

Oregon comes in as most people’s favorite in the conference and it’s fairly easy to see why. Their offense is a marvel to watch with speed at every position, right down to the undersized, super athletic offensive line. The questions for this year are whether both lines will hold up with a handful of new faces being plugged in. And it’s a big question. If Oregon’s defense can’t get quick 3-and-outs, it puts a hole in coach Chip Kelly’s intention to keep his opposing defense on the field and tired. And that’s the inherent flaw in this style of offense. Your defense becomes your biggest enemy. It’s totally overlooked by most, but a great example is Auburn’s defense last year. If not for the presence of a transcendent QB (Cam Newton) the Tigers would have been a 3 or 4 loss team. Their defense could not help the offense keep teams on the field. Instead it helped opposing teams keep points on the board. Darron Thomas is good. Darron Thomas is not Cam Newton. And that may be a big problem for the Ducks.

If you’re looking for 2011’s transcendent player, look no further than the beautiful Palo Alto, California and the previously talked about Andrew Luck. Outside of a lack of premium talent at the skill positions (other than QB), Stanford’s potential Achilles heel is the departure of Head Coach Jim Harbaugh. However, there are very few (just one) early challenges on Stanford’s road to a Pac 12 Championship. There’s enough time for the Cardinal to adjust to new coach David Shaw’s philosophies. And it’s not like Shaw is a new face. He’s been the Offensive Coordinator at Stanford for 4 years. Outside of a trip to Tucson on September 17th, the Cardinal do not play a conference contender until October 29 in LA against USC. Of course, the centerpiece game on the schedule comes on November 12 when Oregon travels to Palo Alto. And, as opposed to the 2010 game in Eugene, the Cardinal will be able to hold onto a lead. And they’ll win.

So, Stanford is going to go undefeated, right? Well, no. That roadblock on the 29th of October is interesting. See, the USC Trojans have nothing to play for in 2011, but pride. They are not eligible to appear in any polls. They can’t play in the Pac 12 Title Game. They can’t play in a bowl game. And while it seems senseless to put stock into a team with nothing to play for, it’s worth noting that the Trojans are likely the most talented all-around team in the conference and they themselves are led by a potential top 5 NFL Draft pick in QB Matt Barkley. I’d be fascinated to hear the preseason prognostication if the Trojans had something to play for in 2011. But with Lane Kiffin’s ego and Matt Barkley likely to leave for the NFL (and wanting to prove himself to be the second best QB in the draft) I think USC plays for the only thing they can get: respect. And nothing would make that mark more than a win over Stanford and Andrew Luck.

North Division

1. Stanford (8-1)

2. Oregon (8-1)

3. Washington (4-5)

4. California (3-7)

5. Oregon State (2-7)

6. Washington State (1-8)

South Division

1. USC (8-1)

2. Arizona (6-3)

3. Utah (6-3)

4. UCLA (5-4)

5. Arizona State (4-5)

6. Colorado (0-10)

Pac-12 Championship: Stanford over Arizona (USC not eligible) 35-21

SEC

College football’s national champion has come from the SEC each of the last six seasons. So you’d think, “Why would that change in 2011?” If I’m to look for a reason why, I would say it’s because the conference isn’t as good in 2011 as it has been in years past. Alabama may be the second rated team in the country, but they’re not a sure thing on offense. LSU is a sure thing on defense, but not on offense (and they may be close to losing starting QB Jordan Jefferson as he is under police investigation for a bar brawl in Baton Rouge). Florida has questions at QB and an entirely new coaching staff, including first time head coach Will Muschamp (formerly the D-Coordinator in Austin). Auburn may be the defending national champ, but they are returning fewer starters than any other Division I program this season. And one of those starters, Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton, will be impossible to replace, especially with the options available down on the Plains. The job will likely fall to junior Barrett Trotter, though don’t be surprised to see super frosh Kiehl Frazier getting snaps behind center at some point in the season. Arkansas was thought to be a dark horse contender, until they lost star running back Knile Davis to a season ending ankle injury. Mississippi State is improving rapidly, but they’re a year away. Tennessee is improving slowly and a few years away. Georgia has a good quarterback (Aaron Murray), a desperate coach (Mark Richt), and not much else.

If you noticed that someone is missing (and I’m not talking about Kentucky, Vanderbilt, or Ole Miss), you are right. And if you think there’s a reason why they’re missing, you’re also right.

The missing team for those of you in the dark resides in Columbia, South Carolina. They’re coached by a National Championship winning head coach, quarterbacked by a 4-year starter, led in the backfield by arguably the nation’s best running back, flanked out wide by the nation’s best wide receiver, bring in the nation’s top overall recruit onto an already solid defensive line, and have a solid defensive secondary, anchored by cornerback Stephon Gilmore, a potential All-American in his Sophomore season.

The pedigree is certainly lacking from a historical perspective for the University of South Carolina Gamecocks. But pedigree aside, on paper, this is the conference’s best overall team, with Alabama not very far behind. Most would point to often troubled Gamecock QB Stephen Garcia as a glaring weakness for the program. However, I don’t. Garcia can manage a game pretty well. And he’s got two All-American security blankets in RB Marcus Lattimore and the fabulous, majestic, near perfect Alshon Jeffrey at WR.

Contending for a National Championship would be a huge step up for a team that was 9-5 last season (5-3 in the SEC) and played in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl, losing to Florida State. What South Carolina has in their favor is a relatively easy SEC schedule. No Alabama. No LSU. Road games at Georgia, Arkansas, Mississippi State, and Tennessee. All are winnable. None will be easy. It’s likely that the Gamecocks slip up somewhere along the way. The home schedule is even less of a challenge, with Florida being the only conference contender coming to Columbia. If nothing else, the Gamecocks will be in Atlanta in December as SEC East champions. Who will they play?

Alabama. That’s all. I don’t really need to write more do I?

East Division

1. South Carolina (7-1)

2. Florida (5-3)

3. Georgia (5-3)

4. Tennessee (2-6)

5. Vanderbilt (1-5)

6. Kentucky (0-8)

West Division

1. Alabama (7-1)

2. Mississippi State (6-2)

3. LSU (6-2)

4. Arkansas (4-4)

5. Auburn (4-4)

6. Ole Miss (2-6)

SEC Championship South Carolina over Alabama 17-14

Mountain West

If you came here looking for me to break down Wyoming’s spread offense, you came to the wrong place. The Mountain West as far as I’m considered comes down to 3 teams. Really, just 2. But the Air Force Academy is an interesting matchup for most teams because they still run an option- run offense. I don’t think that Boise State or Texas Christian will lose to Air Force, but the Falcons will make it interesting.

No, this is all about one game. November 12 in beautiful Boise, Idaho. This will be the only year that Boise State and TCU are in the same conference. And this game could decide a lot. And “a lot” does not necessarily mean the Mountain West title. I think TCU will be playing spoilers. They will know that they stand between Boise and a trip to New Orleans in January. The Mountain West took this home game away from the Horned Frogs and moved it from Fort Worth to Boise when they defected to the Big East (where they will begin play next season). It was a bad move by the conference to treat the team that brought it so much good football publicity with such disregard. The Big East move was something TCU had to do to compete for BCS bowl berths every year. And on their way out of the office after years of great work, instead of being given a plaque for service, they got handed one last, very difficult, assignment.

On top of the middle finger motivation, TCU also would love to avenge a loss to Boise State in 2010’s Fiesta Bowl. The two schools have developed a rivalry despite having rarely played in their histories. Make no mistake, there will be no bigger game in the 2011 regular season than the one on November 12. You’ll find no more emotion. No more passion. No more will. In most other cases this season, teams can afford a loss. It seems like that kind of season. This is the exception.

So who wins? Boise wins a brutal, physical, game with an end of game Kellen Moore TD pass, by a score of 24-21. And that makes Boise State 12-0. And you know what that means.

Independents

There are two independents who warrant mention in terms of the big picture of the 2011 college football season. One, Notre Dame, comes in with high expectations. The other, Brigham Young, comes in under the national radar. Both of those things will change fairly early in the season.

For Notre Dame, it seems like every three years they inexplicably appear in the Preseason AP Top 25. People say, “This is the year.” I’ve even seen some experts pick the Irish to play in the National Championship (seriously, people employed by major networks (CBS in this case) making that pick). That won’t happen. In fact, it won’t even come close to happening.

Last year, Notre Dame finished the regular season 7-5, but won the Sun Bowl convincingly over Miami to wrap up the season at 8-5. This, for whatever reason, has led to the high expectations. Never mind that coach Brian Kelly just settled on a starting QB (incumbent Dayne Crist over sophomore Tommy Rees) this week. Never mind that the schedule poses a number of challenges. Never mind that Crist has done nothing in his career to distinguish himself. It’s Notre Dame. And they won the last game they played. Let the hype begin. I think the Irish finish 8-4. Losses to Michigan, Michigan State, USC, and Stanford.

As for BYU, they’re not going to come onto the national radar because I expect them to win a lot of games. No, for those unfamiliar with the story, BYU has made itself a football independent (they’ll join the West Coast Conference (the one with Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s) in basketball) beginning this season. And with that independence comes a contract with ESPN to air most of the Cougars games in 2011. You’ll see BYU playing Utah State, Central Florida, and Hawaii (among others) in 2011 on your televisions. And you’ll likely think to yourself at some point, “Wait, BYU is on AGAIN???!!!” Make no mistake, the early stages of this agreement will benefit those in Provo more than those in Bristol, as the program looks to schedule marquee games across an entire season in upcoming years. It will be a challenge for the university. BYU will not be a top or second tier team in 2011. But they’ll certainly get the TV coverage, which is great exposure for the school (read: LDS faith) as they try to push themselves towards Notre Dame-type status.

The Cougars have a few minor challenges on the road (Ole Miss and Oregon State) and then some major ones (Texas and TCU). The rest of the schedule sees BYU playing only one major program (its arch rival Utah). I expect an 8-4 season for the Cougars. Sophomore QB Jake Heaps ended the 2010 season with 5 of 6 victories and played much better down the stretch, all as a true freshman. The offensive line, especially on the ends, is solid and will keep the young QB upright. The question will be whether Heaps can take the next step and become a top tier QB. If he does, we’ll not only be seeing the Cougars a lot in the coming year, but hearing about them as well.

Non-Conference

I’ve purposely avoided talking about the non-conference schedule above because I believe it warrants its own section. And it gets started very early on.

Week 1:

TCU at Baylor- A tough test for the TCU defense as it goes up against dynamic QB Robert Griffin III. They’ll be up to the task. Something to watch: TCU QB Casey Pachall taking over for the departed Andy Dalton. The Baylor defense will not pose a difficult threat, but it’ll be interesting to see where his confidence level is. Expect a 100 yard game from RB Ed Wesley.

Boise State vs Georgia- The game is being played in Atlanta, but don’t worry, it’s a “neutral site game.” So what if Athens, GA is 70 miles from the Georgia Dome. Kidding aside, this is as good as a road game for Boise State, which is fine. In 2005, Boise State set itself back years by traveling to Athens and getting taken out back by the Bulldogs. This Georgia team is not as good as that team and this Boise team is better than that Boise team. And it will show. It has to for the Broncos. A loss here would be devastating for the school. They’ll win comfortably. At least they better hope so.

Oregon vs. LSU- This game is another neutral site affair, coming to you from Cowboys Stadium. Both teams come in ranked in the top 5, though both come in with question marks. An Oregon loss will essentially take them out of the national title race. LSU can afford a close loss. I’ve gone back and forth on this game. I’m not quite sure who has the advantage. Oregon should be more motivated. LSU’s defense is a world better than the Auburn defense that beat the Ducks in Glendale, AZ last January. Right now, I’ll take the Ducks. I don’t know that LSU’s defense will be in the shape it needs to be to play Oregon’s offense. And for the Ducks, they just need to hope they can stop the Tigers a few times offensively. LSU is no juggernaut there, so it shouldn’t be too much of a problem. Unless the Pac-12 is really as inferior as the SEC nation would like you to think. On this night, it won’t be. Oregon wins a close one.

Week 2:

Arizona at Oklahoma State- An early season test for the dynamic Oklahoma State offense. They’ll dismiss of the Wildcats fairly easily on one side of the ball, but I wonder about their ability to stop Arizona’s QB/WR combo of Nick Foles and Juron Criner. It’ll be a good test for the Cowboys defense. I like them to win a 45-31 type shootout.

Alabama at Penn State- Someone will say something about how the Nittany Lions are going to lay it all out and win a big one for Joe. They’ll be very wrong. Very, very wrong.

Notre Dame at Michigan- The first night game ever at Michigan Stadium. Brady Hoke’s first test. Michigan surprises some people and puts a hole in the “Notre Dame for National Championship” movement.

Week 3:

Oklahoma at Florida State- I mean, an absolute mega game. The loser will lose all hope of playing for a championship because of the conference they play in. Oklahoma wins a close one.

Ohio State at Miami- Call it the Scandal Bowl. Also call it a Buckeyes victory.

Auburn at Clemson- Neither team is likely to make a run at New Orleans, but the game deserves mention because of how close Clemson came to beating Auburn last season. They’ll come so close this year that they’ll actually do it.

Week 4:

LSU at West Virginia- The Mountaineers nearly won last season in Baton Rouge. If they get the job done this season, it’ll go a long way towards Big East supremacy, er, legitimacy. West Virginia keeps it close but loses to the Tigers.

Week 5:

Texas A&M vs. Arkansas- This one will also take place in Cowboys Stadium. Unlike the previous two meetings, I think the Aggies win this one and keep their National Title dreams alive.

After Week 5, conference play begins, in earnest. Of course, there are a few rivalry games at the end of the season (Florida State v. Florida, Georgia v. Georgia Tech). You won’t really need to plan your schedule around any of these games.

Non-BCS Bowl Projections

I’ve never tried this before and it’s very likely that I won’t predict a single game correctly, but if you’re still reading, you likely have very little to live for. So I’ll extend your life a little longer. This was much more of a challenge than I expected it to be. Also worth noting to those of you unfamiliar with college football that these are actual bowl games. You’ll also hear people in late December complaining about how there’s too many bowl games. This is because people like to complain about things that affect them in no way at all. Bowl games are good. They allow teams to play one more game and receive a payout from a willing sponsor. If R+L Carriers wants to give a few hundred thousand dollars to the 3^rd place team in Conference USA, why should I complain? No one has ever been tied into a chair and forced to watch the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl. Let the kids play.

New Mexico Bowl: Arizona State vs. San Diego State

Famous Potatoes Bowl: Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Troy vs. Southern Mississippi

Beef O’Brady’s Bowl: UConn vs. Central Florida

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl: Air Force vs. Nevada

MAACO Bowl: TCU vs. UCLA

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl: Tulsa vs. Ohio

Advocare V100 Independence Bowl: Colorado State vs. Boston College

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl: Toledo vs. Penn State

Belk Bowl: Louisville vs. Clemson

Military Bowl: Navy vs. Maryland

Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl: Texas vs. Utah

Champs Sports Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Miami

Valero Alamo Bowl: Missouri vs. Arizona

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl: BYU vs. Houston

New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Texas Tech vs. Cincinnati

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Auburn

Insight Bowl: Ohio State vs. Oklahoma State

Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas: Northwestern vs. Baylor

Hyundai Sun Bowl: South Florida vs. Washington

AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Tennessee vs. East Carolina

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: Utah State vs. Army

Chick Fil-A Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Georgia

Capital One Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Mississippi State

Gator Bowl: Michigan vs. Arkansas

Outback Bowl: Michigan State vs. Florida

Cotton Bowl: Texas A&M vs. LSU

BBVA Compass Bowl: Pittsburgh vs. Florida Atlantic

Godaddy.com Bowl: Middle Tennessee vs. Temple

BCS

To set up my BCS projections, let’s take a look at our Big 6 conference champions:

ACC: Florida State

Big East: West Virginia

Big 12 (the one with 10): Oklahoma *

Big 10 (the one with 12): Nebraska

Pac 12: Stanford

SEC: South Carolina

At-Large:

Boise State *

Alabama

Oregon

Wisconsin

Rose Bowl: Stanford over Nebraska

Sugar Bowl: South Carolina over West Virginia

Fiesta Bowl: Alabama over Oregon

Orange Bowl: Florida State over Wisconsin

BCS National Championship: Oklahoma vs. Boise State

In 2007, Boise State and Oklahoma played in the Fiesta Bowl in a classic game, remembered for a hook-and-ladder play for a touchdown late in the 4^th quarter, a Statue of Liberty play for a game winning 2-point conversion, and a marriage proposal. It’s also remembered as Bob Stoops’ most embarrassing loss at Oklahoma. That year’s Sooners team was stacked. Adrian Peterson in the backfield. Malcolm Kelly, Manny Johnson, and Juaqin Iglesias on the outside (all excellent college receivers). Trent Williams on the offensive line, Gerald McCoy at DT, Jermaine Gresham at tight end, etc, etc. Even their kicker, Garrett Hartley, has made a name for himself in the NFL winning a Super Bowl with the Saints. Boise came into that game with future NFL stars, um, Jared Zabransky? Ian Johnson? Jerard Raab?

For one night, the little school, with the blue field, in a small city in the Northwest was better than the blue blood, Midwestern, powerhouse. And it helped Boise State get itself back to respected status following their Georgia debacle two years earlier.

As for 2011 (or 2012 as it were), the question has to be asked, “What are the biggest obstacles to these two teams being undefeated?” For Oklahoma, it’s undoubtedly the game in Tallahassee against Florida State. Of course, they’ll need to win games against Oklahoma State and Texas A&M, but the Seminoles pose the biggest schematic challenge for Oklahoma. For the Broncos, avenging the loss to Georgia, beating a motivated TCU team, and never becoming complacent (see: Reno, Nevada. November 26, 2010) will be their biggest challenges.

In the game, I’ll take the Broncos again. Scoff as the power conferences will, Boise State is the best all around team in the country. In 2007, people chalked up their victory to “gimmicks and tricks.” This time they won’t do it with “gimmicks and tricks.” They’ll beat the Sooners like they beat Virginia Tech last year. They’ll outplay them. Kellen Moore will outplay Landry Jones. The defense will swarm and attack. And Chris Peterson will scheme better than Bob Stoops (again). If it happens, it’ll be a landmark moment in college football and a bright spot on what has been a pretty bad stretch of publicity for the sport. Make that a bright, blue spot.

Heisman

The race for the Heisman will be a race for second place. I fully expect, as you can tell, Andrew Luck to live up to the hype and to exceed last year’s success.

1. Andrew Luck (QB/Stanford)

2. Kellen Moore (QB/Boise State)

3. Trent Richardson (RB/Alabama)

4. Landry Jones (QB/Oklahoma)

5. Marcus Lattimore (RB/South Carolina)

Wrap-Up

Forget the Holidays. This is the most wonderful time of the year. September 3^rd can’t come soon enough.

I Appreciate Minor League Baseball on a Much Deeper Level Than You

August 19, 2011 / Jason / Leave a comment

(Title is an Onion article. Special prize (nothing) goes to the person who guesses first what the subject of that article was)

I love minor league baseball. In fact, I may love minor league baseball more than I love Major League baseball. I love watching undeveloped (and underdeveloped) young players grow. I like analyzing pitcher’s arm actions and guessing who’s going to need Tommy John surgery some day. I particularly enjoy watching young hitters who possess some element of patience at the plate. Few things in baseball drive me more crazy than hitters swinging at first pitches and beginning their at bats in an 0-1 hole. I like watching young players draw walks. Nothing bad can come from a walk. I used to not be of this school of thought, but sometimes a walk is even better than a single. You can’t get thrown out at second trying to leg out a walk. You aren’t going to have other baserunners get thrown out running for home. In fact, if a team were able to just walk in each at bat, never putting ball in play or striking out, that team would never lose. Ever. In fact, their first game would never end. I cannot preach patience enough.

Wednesday, I went to a minor league baseball game in Hagerstown, Maryland to see Washington Nationals phenom Stephen Strasburg as he rehabs following Tommy John Surgery last September. What I saw, including a rough 1.2 IP from Strasburg, was incredibly frustrating. Hitters swinging early in counts. Pitchers locating fastballs up in the zone. Terrible coaching on the basepaths (really, on a 50-50 ball in the OF, it’s okay to send the runner from second when you’re up 8-5 in the third inning). But more than what I saw, it was what I heard that left me frustrated.

Yes, the biggest problem with minor league baseball is the “fans.” I consider myself to be a bit of a baseball fan. Accordingly, I feel as though those who consider themselves fans of a game should know at least a little bit about what they’re watching. And yet, I never get that feeling at minor league games. People seem to be there for the beer, as though they couldn’t get a 12 pack of Yuengling and sit on their decks for the same price as a ticket and one beer. People also seem to be there to act boorish, which is troublesome for a number of reasons.

About a month ago, I dragged Amanda (literally, it was very disturbing) to Bowie, Maryland to see the Harrisburg Senators and the Bowie Baysox, but mainly to see Bryce Harper, the Nationals top organizational prospect and, depending on who you ask, baseball’s top prospect. What I encountered at this game was a handful of adults (men and women in their 30s and older) who found it entirely necessary to yell, berate, and mock an 18 year old kid. Screams of “You’re worthless!” and “You suck!” rained down on Harper. Boos followed him wherever he went and with whatever he did. People have issues with Harper’s seeming lack of maturity. I find it ironic that those same people find it mature to taunt someone who is barely old enough to buy a lottery ticket. I found myself wondering aloud what one particular “fan” would tell his coworkers the next day. “Aw, dudez, you should have seen how I was yelling at that 18 year old kid. Sure he possesses more talent than all of us combined. Sure he’s only 18. Sure I paid to see him play. But man, he could totally hear me when I told him he should give his money back to the Nationals after he grounded out. It was awesome!” High fives and fist pounds abound. Harper went 2-4 with 2 doubles in the game. I doubt that the grown ups who heckled him did much better that day at their jobs.

Wednesday night, I got to experience more of this. In abundance in fact. Most of the fan hatred was directed towards “Old Blue.” Umpires, especially in A-ball, are by and large very inconsistent, at best. And sometimes even I find myself blurting out “how was that a strike?” or “Where’d that miss?” loud enough for the umpire to hear me. What I cannot stand, however, is the constant chirping on every pitch from fans. And not from children. Grown men. Very grown men. Wednesday night there was a group of senior citizens heckling the home plate umpire (challenging his manhood…classy!) and players in both organizations.

You’ll notice that I didn’t refer to the Hagerstown Suns or the Lexington Legends as “teams.” This is because, as far as I’m concerned, they are not. They are members of an organization. In this case, the Washington Nationals and the Houston Astros. Fans at minor league games, though, do not seem to understand that. They get angry when a pitcher comes out of a game early because he’s on a pitch count. They get angry when guys aren’t stealing bases or railroading the opposing catcher. And in turn, they make me angry. They make me angry because I go to watch development. I go to see how far along pitchers are in developing anything outside of a fastball/slider. I go to watch hitters learn how to hit. I go to watch and enjoy baseball in a very organic way. I do not go to minor league baseball games to listen to uninformed analysis, listen to drunk people, watch drunk people, and witness unfair treatment of kids, in front of younger kids. The behavior of some adults at minor league baseball games embarrasses me and makes me wonder what fandom will be like when I’m 20 years older.

When I was young, my grandfather took me to a Pawtucket Red Sox game every couple of weeks. This happened for years. He was a shining example of behavior for me. He cheered for the team he was rooting for (the PawSox), never booed anyone, cheered when the opposing team made a good play, yielded to pedestrians in the parking lot, threw out his food containers, wore his seat belt, and drove home safely. He helped instill a love of baseball in me. My grandfather was never the stat head that I am. He never followed every team in the game, like I do, carving out time in his daily schedule to watch the Houston Astros because Jordan Lyles (or his Jordan Lyles equivalent) was pitching. He just really enjoyed baseball. Enjoyed the atmosphere. Enjoyed the effort. Enjoyed the game. And at the base level of my love of baseball is that same feeling of enjoyment. If you take away the BABIP, the OPS +, and the FIPs, you get an appreciation of the game. My grandfather taught me this, whether it was his intention or not. I hope there are some parents and grandparents out there who can do the same for today’s young Jasons.

Soccer!!!!!

August 10, 2011 / Jason / Leave a comment

Today might not seem like it, but it’s actually a pretty huge day in the history of American soccer. At least potentially.

First, NBC has reached a 3-year deal to televise 45 MLS and 4 US Men’s National Team (USMNT) games. As part of the deal, NBC itself will air a few regular season and playoff games. The bulk of coverage though will be seen on the Versus network (which is being re-branded in January 2012 and will become the NBC Sports Network). This is big news for the MLS. Previously, their games appeared on the Fox Soccer Channel. And while people criticize the NHL’s presence on Versus, I can tell you that more people know where Versus is on their dial than FSC. And I can also tell you that Versus’ sports broadcasts are as good or better than ESPN’s in many cases. And NBC and Versus will promote MLS in a way that ESPN does not.

Some of you may be confused. You may think, “No, Jason, the MLS disbanded years ago.” While that may seem true, it is in fact inaccurate. In fact, MLS is looking at some kind of resurgence (can you have a resurgence without a surgence?”) in 2011. MLS has done a lot of things poorly in their 15 years of active play. Remember the Tampa Bay Mutiny? The Miami Fusion? If there’s one thing MLS has done, it’s expand perhaps too much. It’s also done itself a disservice by not marketing itself very well. Having your games buried on ESPN2 on Friday nights isn’t going to do much good. But there’s lot of good for MLS. Of the 19 teams in the league beginning with First Kick 2012, only 4 will be playing in non-soccer specific stadiums. And each of those teams are on solid footing in the league (DC United, New England Revolution, Seattle Sounders, and Houston Dynamo). Perhaps the best thing that MLS has done is begin to infiltrate markets not generally regarded as soccer hotbeds, but which are proving to be crazy for their teams: namely Portland, Oregon and Seattle, Washington. Earlier this season, the Portland Timbers hosted the Seattle Sounders in front of a sold out crowd at Jeld-Wen Field. The game was broadcast on ESPN following the Women’s World Cup Final. It drew good ratings and has been regarded as a turning point in MLS’ history. For once, the league had a storyline: Two teams had a rivalry.

There are two things that MLS needs to survive and thrive: exposure and more talent. It’s worth noting that I think the quality of soccer in MLS is vastly inferior to the other international leagues broadcast here in the States. It’s very likely that the former need won’t come until the latter does. Depending on the financial details of today’s deal (undisclosed at this point) and the league’s revenue sharing agreements for its clubs, this NBC agreement could help bring that talent to the states. And I’m sure that’s something that NBC is banking on. More money means more reasons for the world’s best players to come to the US. More rivalries like the one in the Pacific Northwest mean more general interest from the less than average soccer fan, which means higher ratings, which means greater advertising dollars, which means, well, it means more reasons for the world’s talented players to choose American club teams. The results of this NBC deal will not take hold fully for a few years. But Major League Soccer is on the right path. Following their current trend MLS can be more than sustainable within the next 5-7 years. It could be a sports staple in this country. The potential is all there. They just need a little assistance from the USMNT.

Speaking of which, what about the other half of what makes today a potentially monumental day for American soccer? Well, tonight, the USMNT has a friendly (aka an exhibition match) against their greatest rival: Meixco. A little less than two months ago, the United States nearly beat Mexico in front of an unfriendly crowd on home soil in the CONCACAF (don’t ask what that stands for) Gold Cup Final. A win would have been a pretty big deal. Instead, the US blew a 2 goal lead to Mexico and lost its match 4-2 in embarrassing fashion. A few weeks ago, US Soccer announced that coach Bob Bradley was being relieved of his duties and the following day hired former German National Team player and coach Jurgen Klinsmann to command their ship. The USMNT, under Bradley, may have accomplished more than at any other point in its history. But it was very clear that Bradley had maxed out as coach what his team was going to produce. And his style wasn’t truly conducive to long term success. In soccer, you’re not going to be successful by not being particularly good at anything. The USMNT wasn’t particularly strong defensively and was, at best, uninteresting offensively. And bad, at worst.

Klinsmann has promised to bring more excitement to American soccer, which is like Alaska saying it could afford to bring in more palm trees. He promises to not be so focused on the ridiculous notion of playing white soccer players as a marketing gimmick. Klinsmann will play the players who fulfill FIFA’s requirements for national eligibility. It doesn’t matter what they look like, what language they speak, or how you say their last name. Gone are the days of Stuart Holden and Jonathan Bornstein getting playing time because there’s some sort of notion that soccer will be successful in the US if someone in Iowa can turn on their TV and say, “Aw, he looks like a nice boy.” If you’re talented, you’ll play. If you can score, you’ll play. If you can pass, you’ll play. It’s the way things should have been before.

Klinsmann hasn’t had a whole deal of time to implement his system into US Soccer. Tonight is just a very early first step in the process. But make no mistake about it, his arrival is a change. And in this instance, change is good. And this is change I can believe in. I don’t expect the US to avenge their Gold Cup loss to Mexico tonight in Philadelphia with a resounding 4-0 victory. But I do hope to see some glimmers of hope, of life, and of inventiveness on the pitch at Lincoln Financial Field tonight. And I expect to see development of the system in the coming year, as we head towards World Cup 2014 qualifying.

We might not realize it today or tomorrow morning, but there may be a day, years down the line, when some soccer scribe looks back on August 10, 2011 and puts into better context than I can what today could mean to American soccer. The sport is not going away. It only continues to gain in popularity on the world’s scale. There will come a day when soccer is the third sport in America, behind American football and baseball. As our nation’s Hispanic population increases, soccer will become more popular. That will lead to higher TV ratings. That will lead to increased ad dollars. That will lead to bigger TV contracts. That will lead to more money for teams to spend on players. That will lead to the world’s best players wanting to spend their prime making bank in cities like Los Angeles, Houston, and Seattle. And finally, that will lead to a higher quality of club level play. The road is clear for soccer’s success in this country. The road trip starts today.

Mid-Atlantic Bias

A blog by Jason Botelho about sports and other Jason Botelho things

Uncategorized

Excitement and Anger

The Myriad Consequences of Turning A Blind Eye

Not Locked Out: A 2011-12 College Basketball Preview

The Game of the Century

Quarterback Madness 2011

College Football: 1/4 Season Recap and Bold Prediction

2011 NFL Predictions

2011 College Football Preview or How Many Tattoos Can I Get For My Autographed John Jaha Baseball?

I Appreciate Minor League Baseball on a Much Deeper Level Than You

Soccer!!!!!