Baseball at the 55.556% Mark

I wonder occasionally if I would blog more often if I were jobless again. For those of you who don’t know, this blog was started back in January 2008 as a means for me to fill the hours of my day that weren’t spent applying for jobs, focusing on perhaps the (non-human) thing I love the most: sports. As time has moved, this space has become like one of those old toys in Toy Story 3. It sits in its toolbar. Occasionally I’ll fire it up and read an old post. But I rarely find myself with the time to compose a piece like my last post (an NFL mock draft). Even something without a ton of research in it takes at least an hour to craft. If I wanted to put together short pieces on sports, I’d call it Twitter, which I already do (@midatlanticbias).

Today though, as baseball began its unofficial and mathematically incorrect second half, I wanted to take a look at the storylines for each team (yes, all 30) as we head into late July, August, and on.

Owning MLB.TV and having a very caring, thoughtful, and understanding domestic partner (like a wife without the tax break) affords me the opportunity, or the joy, of being able to see any team play whenever I want. For instance, I started off my evening with the Blue Jays/Yankees game. At 8, with the Jays up 8-1, I moved to the Twins/Royals game, just as a time-filler before my game of the night, the Brewers/Rockies game at 8:30. On nights like this when Amanda is out socializing, I like to fill my home with the sounds of bats on balls and ex-players who do not understand a lick about the game they played saying things like, “Jeff Francouer is a real good ballplayer,” while I yell about the fact that he hasn’t had a single-season WAR above 1.0 since 2007. And you know, as annoyed as I get, I love it. Because it’s baseball.

Part of being able to see any team play whenever I want means that I’ve actually seen every team play at least once this season. Yes, I’ve watched the Astros and Padres. And I’d like to think I know a thing or two. So here’s the biggest storyline, or question, by my count, for each team in the final 44.54% of the season.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Can they keep this up?
They won’t all be that vague, but for the Diamondbacks, that’s the question. Most people had them in the cellar in the NL West. I had them finishing second. I really like Daniel Hudson and Ian Kennedy in their rotation. In the lineup, it’s really hard to argue against the still only 22 year old Justin Upton. His .293/.375/.506 split is right where you’d expect. He’s stealing more bases this year and scoring more runs (a product of hitters behind him performing better than they have previously). The question for Arizona is whether or not one of their other starters or someone other than Upton and Chris Young can overperform in the second half. There’s no one in the system who can be their version of Buster Posey, though, so maintaining their first half success might come harder than it did for the 2010 Giants.

Atlanta Braves: Can they catch Philadelphia?
I picked the Braves to win the World Series because of their balance. But they need another bat in their outfield. Colby Rasmus or Hunter Pence could be the game changer for Atlanta. They’d need to likely give up a guy like Julio Teheran, Mike Minor, or Brandon Beachy to acquire either, but doing so very well could propel them beyond the Phillies. So should they sacrifice a promising pitching future for a chance at success this year? In my opinion, yes. I would love to see Atlanta send Teheran and a second-tier prospect to St. Louis for the disgruntled Rasmus. And I think if they did so, they might prove my prognostication correct. Because that bullpen is stellar.

Baltimore Orioles: What happened to their young pitching?
The Orioles fell off the map right around the time Zach Britton and Brian Matusz did. Both of those guys are the Orioles future. It’ll be interesting to see what they do with Britton, Matusz, and (the guy I really, almost irrationally, like, Jake Arrieta. They’ve got to protect the future and ride yet another wave of failure in Charm City. The future is bright enough, so long as they can get those three guys to right the ship.

Boston Red Sox: Can the pitching stay healthy enough?
With Lester and Buchholz on the DL and Josh Beckett having been relatively unseen for the past 3 weeks, combined with Daisuke’s short season, the Red Sox rotation is a mess right now. Past Beckett, you’ve got John Lackey, Tim Wakefield, Andrew Miller, and Kyle Weiland right now. The offense has been great, but should they go through a cold spell, the Red Sox will drop quickly behind the Yankees. They need Lester and Buchholz back quickly.

Chicago White Sox: What is wrong with them?
With that rotation, bullpen, and lineup they have, on paper, you would think they would be a little bit better than the Cleveland Indians. But baseball, like life, is not played on paper. And this team has underachieved mightily. Sports Illustrated’s Joe Posnanski (who, if you’ve never read him before and are reading this now, you’d be wise to close this tab and open up one for him) wrote a few weeks ago that Adam Dunn is the most boring player in the history of baseball. And, as Pos wrote, the numbers are there. Dunn is striking out like, well, Adam Dunn, but he’s not walking as much, and his power numbers totally missing. The Sox have gotten great performances out of Carlos Quentin and Paul Konerko, but not much else. They need a guy like John Danks in the rotation and Dunn in the lineup to start performing for them to have a chance at catching Detroit.

Chicago Cubs: Why watch them?
Baseball people (the ones I don’t like) talk about Starlin Castro like he’s a young Alex Rodriguez. Well, I’ve watched. He’s not. He may be the game’s worst defensive shortstop. He gets on-base at a robust clip of 33% of the time. Oh, and the .763 OPS isn’t fooling me. Look, I know he’s only 21. Five years from now, he may be an elite player (not a shortstop though). Frankly, I don’t see it. And so, why watch the Cubs? Well, there’s nothing wrong with day games.

Cincinnati Reds: Can anyone pitch?
MLB.TV grants you three “favorite teams” to always have at the top of your game schedule. Mine are the Washington Nationals (which is stupid because I get their games on local TV, but I digress), the San Francisco Giants (because I love watching their pitchers, love AT&T Park, love late night baseball, and really, really love their broadcasters Duane Kuiper and Mike Krukow), and the Cincinnati Reds. Now, the Reds are not my “third favorite baseball team.” However, they might be my third favorite to watch. Good broadcasting (Thom Brennaman) and one of the game’s best offenses. I could watch Joey Votto work a count for hours. Jay Bruce’s power is great. Brandon Phillips is a great table setter. And Drew Stubbs, um, strikes out a ton. The Reds should be in first in the NL Central, but aren’t because their starting pitching has been atrocious. Edinson Volquez has regressed more than any other pitcher in baseball, based on his talent level, Johnny Cueto is pitching well, but is fragile, Mike Leake is what he is, Homer Bailey, and their fifth starter? Dontrelle Willis. This is a team that needs Cueto to stay 100% and one, or both, or Leake and Volquez to pitch above their heads. So far, as much as I’ve watched the Reds, and will continue to, I don’t see it.

Cleveland Indians: Can they keep it up?
No. Next.

Colorado Rockies: What’s up with Ubaldo Jimenez?
Well, here’s the thing. Ubaldo Jimenez is what he is. Every year, there seems to be a pitcher who shatters their own ceiling in the first two months and everyone talks about Sandy Koufax. Brad Penny a few years ago. Jimenez last year. Jered Weaver this year. All three of those guys are or were, in Penny’s case, good to very good pitchers. But none are truly Cy Young-caliber guys (I’m not a big Weaver fan. I know others will call me crazy, but he gives up too many home runs, and I’m not sure that his low number in half number one can hold up). People keep asking about Jimenez, “When’s he going to get back to where he was?” But really, other than the W-L record, how far off is he? He’s always walked a ton of guys. His HR/9 totals are higher this year, but not too dramatically. He’s a good to very good pitcher. He can have no-hit stuff, obviously. But he’s not an ace. And until Colorado finds one, they’re not going to get it done.

Detroit Tigers: Who will step up behind Verlander and Scherzer?
The lineup is there. The bullpen is shaky, but serviceable, especially in the AL Central. The starting pitching though, outside of the AL Cy Young favorite Verlander and the erratic but talented Scherzer, is bad. Like, cannot win a playoff series bad. Tiger fans keep waiting for something from Rick Porcello (keep waiting). And if you think Brad Penny is the answer, good luck. In a bad division, they could win a title. In a very good league, they won’t get out of the Wild Card round.

Florida Marlins: Will Josh Johnson come back?
A disappointing year for the Marlins, who I thought would be a good 3rd place team and are instead a bad 5th place team. The injury to Josh Johnson combined with Hanley Ramirez’s underachievement along with their managerial fiasco have buried them. And so the fans of the soon-to-be Miami Marlins have to wonder whether or not they’ll see their ace again this season and whether or not they should. I say no (and think they should sell on him, as highly as possible, now), but opening a new stadium next season, you would think the Marlins would like to have some sort of momentum for 2012. It could be an interesting, way below the radar story line.

Houston Astros: Where will Hunter Pence be on August 1?
This is perhaps the most fascinating storyline and it should play out in the next 12 days. Pence is one of the best players in baseball that no one has ever actually seen play. He can hit to all fields. He plays good defense. He can run. He hits for power. He could be an absolute game changer for one contender. The list of destinations are many for Pence. Atlanta, San Francisco, and Philadelphia make the most sense. On any of the three, he would catapult them into a favorite role, in my opinion. And he’d return a small bounty to a cupboard in Houston that is absolutely bare. When you’re the worst team in baseball, you really don’t want to have a bottom 5 minor league system. But the Astros do. Each of those three teams possess a certain degree of young pitching talent (a lot for the first two and some for the latter) that could really help Houston. But if I had to make a gut call, I’d say the Astros senselessly hang onto Pence. Which would anger and bore me endlessly. Though at least I’d have a reason to watch the Astros.

Kansas City Royals: How good can Eric Hosmer be?
I watched a Royals game a few weeks after the Hosmer call-up and listened to the announcers talk endlessly about their love of Hosmer. And it’s easy to love him. He plays good first base and has a terrific bat. Not to mention, he’s a pretty marketable star. The problem for young Hosmer is that there’s no one else worth watching right now on that team. Mike Moustakas, another recent callup and former top organizational prospect, has regressed over the course of his minor league career, and will need to switch positions before long. And while Alex Gordon has had a Renaissance, he’s still just Alex Gordon. It’ll be hard to expect much from Hosmer in the second half, because he’s such a young hitter with so little around him. But in the future, he’ll be the next Mark Teixiera.

Los Angeles Angels: Mike Trout?
Mike Trout.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Is there any storyline that doesn’t involve the words “Frank” or “McCourt” or “Bankruptcy?”
No. There isn’t. And it’s too bad for Andre Ethier, Clayton Kershaw, and Matt Kemp.

Milwaukee Brewers: Is there any reason to believe they’re not this good?
No, in fact, they’re better. Zack Greinke has not been very good. His strikeout numbers are off the charts. He’s not walking anyone. But he’s simply giving up too many hits and subsequently runs. He should be able to fix that. Shaun Marcum has faded a bit, but if he can step it back up, combined with Yovanni Gallardo, the Brewers could rival the Giants for second best 1-2-3. Oh, and they also have a 3-4-5 in the batting order of Braun, Fielder, and Hart. And that’s not bad. Oh, and they just added one of the best closers of the last decade to their bullpen.

Minnesota Twins: Can they do what they’ve done alot with Ron Gardenhire?
That thing that they’ve done is win in the second half. And I think the answer is yes, if for no other reason than the division they play in. You’d have to expect Joe Mauer to pick it up. And soon they’ll be getting back Jason Kubel, Denard Span, and Justin Morneau. Don’t be too surprised if the Twins win the AL Central.

New York Mets: Will Jose Reyes get traded?
No. And neither will Carlos Beltran. And both of those non-moves, especially the latter, would be mistakes. Reyes’ value will never be higher than it is now. And I don’t think Beltran’s will be either. On a very bad baseball team with very little organizational pitching, those two guys are playing great baseball. Reyes is a potential MVP. He could return two top flight pitchers and one or two mid-to-high tier prospects. And that’s exactly what the Mets need.

New York Yankees: Can they tread water while A-Rod recovers from surgery?
Yes, but I don’t think it will be easy. In case you’ve never watched baseball before, Eduardo Nunez is no A-Rod. His defense leaves even more to be desired than A-Rod’s. And his bat, well, that’s not worth talking about. The thing for the Yankees remains their starting pitching depth. For Boston, the issue is health with their pitching. For New York, it just wasn’t good to begin with. CC is great. Phillip Hughes is fine. So is AJ Burnett. But those guys are both 3-4 starters. And after them, there’s nothing. So the Yankees need offensive production. Without it, they could be in a bit of trouble.

Oakland Athletics: When does Moneyball come out?
Seriously, if you’re looking for me to come up with some grand story line for the Oakland A’s, I’ve got nothing for you. Their pitching is enjoyable to watch. I like Trevor Cahill a lot. Gio Gonzalez is fine. Their offense is putrid, though. And their best pitcher, Brett Anderson, just found himself under the knife receiving Tommy John surgery. As if he hadn’t missed enough time over the past few years. Your best bet for the Oakland A’s is following pitcher Brandon McCarthy on twitter at @B__McCarthy. And yes, that’s two underscores.

Philadelphia Phillies: Do they even need Roy Oswalt?
Need? No. Would it be nice to have him around in October? Certainly. I think he’ll be there. I’d imagine they’re being extra careful with him because, well, why not? They’re great. Their top 3 starting pitchers are so far ahead of whatever 1-2-3 is the second best in baseball, you may as well be comparing the 1927 New York Yankees lineup to the 2011 Oakland Athletics lineup. If Halladay isn’t your Cy Young winner, it’s Hamels. And if Hamels isn’t, well, Cliff Lee is capable of near perfection every single time he pitches. The Phillies will be next to impossible to beat in a playoff series. The only question is whether they’ll get there. And I think even if Atlanta wins the East, Philly will win the wild card. And if Oswalt is healthy then, they won’t be stopped.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Can they keep this up?
Of course not. Don’t be stupid. But, they’re definitely on the up. Whereas last year, the Padres played above their heads all year long, and this year, the Indians are, I don’t see Pittsburgh dropping off next year like San Diego did this year and Cleveland assuredly will next year. The Pirates rotation is not what an expert would call “good.” But it’s serviceable. Their lineup has some bright spots (see the outstanding Andrew McCutchen) but they’re not the Cincinnati Reds. And their bullpen is good, but bullpens don’t win games, they lose them. Next year, the Pirates will have developed further. There’s not a ton of high system talent right now, but that will come down the line with Jameson Taillon, Starling Marte, Gerritt Cole and others. Until then, I hope the Pirates fans keep going to games and keep enjoying this team before a ticket to beautiful PNC is a difficult buy.

San Diego Padres: Much like Hunter Pence, where will Heath Bell be pitching on August 1?
The Padres will trade Bell. I don’t think that Bell is quite as good as all of his success would have you believe. His fastball is very good. But that’s about it. He’s hittable. I’d guess he’ll wind up in Texas or Detroit.

San Francisco Giants: Can they win the World Series without Buster Posey?
As good as their pitching is, their lineup is just as bad without Posey. As much as Atlanta needs a guy like Rasmus or Pence, San Francisco needs a Pence or Carlos Beltran. They need someone to produce something in that lineup. Pence would be great in San Francisco. His power would drop, but he’d become a doubles machine, while playing good defensive outfield. Put it this way, if the Giants don’t make a major offensive move, they might win the NL West. But that’s the only banner they’ll hang for 2011.

Seattle Mariners: Is Michael Pineda going to decline in the second half?
Probably. But you’d still have to be impressed with him. I know I have. His starts have become near must-watches for me. I love his effortlessness. Love his fastball. Love that he has a near-1.00 WHIP. And I especially love that he’s only 22. So if he starts giving up more long balls and walking a guy or two more, don’t fret M’s fans. For his first full season in the Major Leagues he’s been a huge success. Consider the Mariners the AL version of the Pirates. With Felix Hernandez.

St. Louis Cardinals: How in the world are they going to win the Central?
They’re not, overzealous Cardinals fans. The pitching isn’t any good. The bullpen isn’t either. Yes, they have Pujols, Holliday, and the (sure to slump) Berkman in the lineup, but they’re way behind Milwaukee in talent. And I just really dislike Tony LaRussa. A lot.

Tampa Bay Rays: Can they catch the Yankees and Red Sox?
Well, the pitching is probably good enough to get them there. James Shields has been nothing short of a revelation this year, pitching like Jack Morris. David Price is still David Price. Jeff Niemann has pitched well of late. The offense, though, isn’t good enough. Ten years from now, someone will say, “Former All-star Matt Joyce has announced his retirement….” and I’ll think, “MATT JOYCE WAS AN ALL-STAR???!!!” Snark aside, if you’re looking for Matt Joyce to carry your offense, you may as well be the Oakland Athletics (no, seriously, when does Moneyball come out?). I long for the day that Andrew Friedman gives up on BJ Upton. In short, there’s just not a lot of good stuff in that Tampa lineup. They’re kind of boring. And boring usually means “not productive.” Certainly not productive enough to win the AL East.

Texas Rangers: Is that starting rotation really good enough to win a pennant?
No, but that offense certainly is. The Rangers won the AL pennant last year. This year’s offense is better. The addition of Adrian Beltre has improved their lineup from very good to very gooder. If Ian Kinsler could figure out how to hit on the road, they’d probably stretch their small, one game lead over the Angels. I don’t think LA is a threat. So long as guys like Colby Lewis and Matt Harrison keep on doing whatever it is that they’re doing.

Toronto Blue Jays: How good could they be with Roy Halladay?
I think they could be the favorite in the AL East. I realize that one pitcher does not completely change a team, but this team desperately needs a rock at the top of the rotation. Ricky Romero is a very good number 2 starter who is their ace. Beyond Romero, there’s not a lot of intimidating stuff. But their lineup is great, anchored by the AL MVP, Jose Bautista, who is proving every one of his critics wrong, all in the face of baseless and, frankly, stupid steroid accusations. How dare he be good? Outside of Bautista, they’ve got speed in Rajai Davis, more power in Adam Lind, a hopefully resurgent Travis Snider, and a good young catcher in J.P. Arencibia. Toronto is not far off the Texas Rangers track. That’s likely not a World Series winning track, but in most divisions, it’s a contending track. And that makes them a fun watch (and a tough out) in the second half of this season.

Washington Nationals: JAYSON %#@&!$^ WERTH????!!!!!!
Okay, that’s not quite a question or a storyline, but lately, if I see him or hear his name, that’s what I want to scream. It would be easier to watch his floundering if he didn’t make $18 million per season. It would be easier to watch if it looked like he gave a darn. It would be easier to watch if he looked like he had taken a shower, for God’s sake. But with every 0-4 game, with 2 foul outs and 5 runners left on base, I think about all the things a team can do with $18 million. Like draft and sign guys way over slot. Like take risks on high upside/low-mid cost free agents. Like lowering ticket prices. Like paying people to sit in those empty $300 seats behind home plate. Like signing Jordan Zimmermann to a long-term extension. And on and on. I hated the Werth signing the moment I saw it. Anyone who had an objective eye and knew a good deal about baseball knew to look past the production in 2010 in Philadelphia. Mike Rizzo didn’t pass that test. There’s plenty for me to be excited about: Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg, J-Zimm, Ryan Zimmerman, Danny Espinosa, the out-of-nowhere rise of Brad Peacock, AJ Cole’s great work in A-ball, the 2011 draft, the idea that maybe, just maybe, Matt Purke isn’t totally damaged goods. No team in Major League baseball has a brighter long-term future than the Nats. But I keep going back to the Werth signing. And I look at Michael Morse. And I think, oh no. This can’t happen again, right?

Playoff Predictions:

AL Winners:
East: Red Sox
Central: White Sox
West: Rangers
Wild Card: Yankees

NL Winners:
East: Phillies
Central: Brewers
West: Giants
Wild Card: Braves

World Series: Phillies over Red Sox
(But it could still be my preseason Braves over White Sox prediction, right?)

2011 NFL Mock Draft

I couldn’t let the NFL Draft go by without my third consecutive mock draft. Especially because I never missed a pick in my previous 2 mocks. Okay, that was a lie. But I enjoy doing them, reading them, and seeing how awful my first round ends up being.

Last year, I started off 4-for-4. I then flipped Eric Berry and Russell Okung. So, I was looking good. Then I had the Cleveland Browns taking Jimmy Clausen. Clausen didn’t get drafted by the Browns. Or any other team in Round 1. Then I had Oakland taking Bruce Campbell. Which they did. In Round 4. The rest of the mock wasn’t so atrocious. I nearly hit on Tim Tebow’s slotting when most people had him going in Round 2. And I hit on Jermaine Gresham to Cincinnati. So I’m going to try my hand at it again this year. Without further ado, 2011 Mock Draft Version 1 and Only. A reminder, the selections you see are what I think will happen in terms of player slotting. No trades (though, as a sidebar, no team needs to move up in this draft more than the St. Louis Rams, to take AJ Green or Julio Jones) in this mock. Explanations where needed/wanted.
1. Carolina Panthers- Cam Newton (QB/Auburn)
This would not be my pick if I were running the Panthers. With so much uncertainty in the 2011 NFL season, I’d be hesitant to draft a QB with my first overall pick unless he was a sure thing. Newton is not that. Cam is the most dynamic QB in this draft. And he has the most to work with in terms of skill set. And the highest ceiling. But he also needs a lot of work to succeed in the NFL. I’d take a surer thing on the defensive side of the ball. Marcell Dareus or Von Miller come to mind. Bear in mind, this is not a criticism of Cam. I just don’t know for sure that he’s going to be the best player in this draft.
2. Denver Broncos- Marcell Dareus (DT/Alabama)
A no-brainer for a team that couldn’t sack a potato in 2010. Dareus is a workhorse. And a great addition to an abysmal defense.
3. Buffalo Bills- Blaine Gabbert (QB/Missouri)
Most prognosticators talk about how the Bills should draft a QB, but that they never will do the right thing. But what if they do? I think the Bills take Gabbert as the heir apparent to Jim Kelly (15 years later). It makes sense.
4. Cincinnati Bengals- AJ Green (WR/Georgia)
I prefer Julio Jones. But I really prefer being right in my mock draft. I think Cincinnati goes offense, even with the surest thing in this draft (in my opinion), Von Miller, still on the board.
5. Arizona Cardinals- Patrick Peterson (CB/LSU)
Another landing spot for Miller, but Peterson fills an immediate, glaring need.
6. Cleveland Browns- Von Miller (LB/Texas A&M)
It’s not necessarily a huge need for the Browns, but a great value pick of a guy who could go as high as #2. Miller is a high character guy with an obscene motor.
7. San Francisco 49ers- Prince Amukamara (CB/Nebraska)
The 49ers would love to see Peterson available here, but they should be happy with the Prince. Amukamara is not just a great Corner (though he may convert to Safety some day) but the best character guy in this draft. And who can doubt someone with the first name “Prince?”
8. Tennessee Titans- Robert Quinn (DE/North Carolina)
Yes, they took another DE last year in the first round (Derrick Morgan, who missed most of the 2010 season with a torn ACL). Yes, they could also go with a Quarterback (Jake Locker), Wide Receiver (Julio Jones), Offensive Tackle (Any of 4), or Defensive Tackle (Nick Fairley). Yes, they are not very good.
9. Dallas Cowboys- Tyron Smith (OT/USC)
Did you know that the Cowboys have never taken an Offensive Tackle in the first round under Jerry Jones? Well, that should change this year if they want to compete for a playoff spot in 2011. Smith is regarded as the best of a pool of good, but not great OT candidates.
10. Washington Redskins- Julio Jones (WR/Alabama)
Jones is the second coming of Hines Ward and would fill a glaring need for the Redskins. He’s a steal here in my opinion as I’d rank him as a top 5 prospect in this draft.
11. Houston Texans- Jimmy Smith (CB/Colorado)
A huge reach. This year’s Tyson Alualu. Houston is a team that needs a CB more than anyone else in this draft. If they can’t move up to draft Peterson or Amukamara, I see them reaching for the next best thing. Smith is arguably as talented a CB as Peterson or Prince, but regarded as being a diva and a distraction. The talent is good enough that Houston should take the gamble. Because their corners were awful last year. Of course, if he doesn’t get drafted here, don’t be surprised if he falls into Round 2.
12. Minnesota Vikings- Gabe Carimi (OT/Wisconsin)
Quarterback is a possibility for the Vikings, but they need to get younger on the offensive line. And really, there’s no Quarterback here who is truly worth taking this high and handing over the keys to the car to.
13. Detroit Lions- Cameron Jordan (DE/California)
Two months ago, Da’Quan Bowers was not only the top DE prospect, but the draft’s top prospect. Now, injury concerns have the Lions, in my opinion, making the smart move and taking the best available, healthy DE.
14. St. Louis Rams- Nick Fairley (DT/Auburn)
If he’s available here, and I do think he falls out of the top 10, St. Louis has a steal on their hands. The Rams are in the toughest spot at 14. They need a top flight WR, but Green and Jones will be gone by pick 14. St. Louis needs to move up to provide Sam Bradford a 12 year weapon on the outside.
15. Miami Dolphins- Nate Solder (OT/Colorado)
Of course, Jake Locker is an option. But the Dolphins need someone to flank the right side of their line. The enormous 6’8″ Solder has the potential to be the right side’s Jake Long.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars- Ryan Kerrigan (DE/Purdue)
The story here to me is the continued plummet of Da’Quan Bowers. I expect this to be a Defensive End and Kerrigan is the next best healthy DE. At some point though, Bowers’ huge potential will be too much for these teams to pass up.
17. New England Patriots- J.J. Watt (DE/Wisconsin)
I’ve seen the Patriots taking J.J. Watt in nearly every mock draft. That usually means that New England will go in the opposite direction. So, really, throw a dart at a board if you’d like. I’ll just go with the guy who seems like the best fit. Though Bowers is an intriguing prospect for New England.
18. San Diego Chargers- Da’Quan Bowers (DE/Clemson)
If any team is going to take a flier on an injured player with a limitless ceiling, it’ll be AJ Smith’s Chargers. And he fills a huge need for the team.
19. New York Giants- Anthony Costonzo (OT/Boston College)
The Giants could not protect Eli Manning last year. With so much invested in Eli and no true anchor at LT, the Giants need to take a LT. Costonzo is the best available.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Aldon Smith (DE/Missouri)
The Bucs have the youth in the middle of the front 4 with Gerald McCoy and Brian Price. Now they go out and get the youth on the edge, a place they struggled to get production from in 2010, in terms of taking down the QB.
21. Kansas City Chiefs- Phil Taylor (DT/Baylor)
I think the Glenn Dorsey pick was a disaster. With Dorsey now playing DE in their 3-4, Kansas City needs to clean up that mess by taking the talented (though troubled in the past) DT from Baylor.
22. Indianapolis Colts- Akeem Ayers (OLB/UCLA)
The Colts have needs at OT as well, however, there’s later-round depth there. That’s not the case with the LB position. The Colts defense is old, slow, untalented, or all 3. Ayers is the best LB in this draft. That is, assuming Von Miller drops out of the draft before it begins.
23. Philadelphia Eagles- Mike Pouncey (OG/Florida)
I think this might be too low for Pouncey, based entirely on the success of his brother Maurkice across the Keystone State last season.
24. New Orleans Saints- Mark Ingram (RB/Alabama)
A lack of depth in the defensive secondary draft field forces New Orleans to take a look at their biggest offensive weakness. Ingram, if healthy, could be a steal here. That is a huge “if.”
25. Seattle Seahawks- Jake Locker (QB/Washington)
Every year, there’s a pick that makes too much sense. A team without a true QB for their future. Pete Carroll’s connection to Washington coach Steve Sarkisian. Locker playing college ball in Seattle. Locker being from suburban Seattle. It makes too much sense.
26. Baltimore Ravens- Adrian Clayborn (DE/Iowa)
Clayborn without the character issues is a top 15 pick. Why not put him in Charm City with Ray Lewis, Haloti Ngata, Ed Reed, etc.? Let the pros teach the talented kid how to be a pro. I think he can be a big steal this low in Round 1. Does he slip to Round 2? Probably. Should he? Absolutely not. At least not on talent alone.
27. Atlanta Falcons- Randall Cobb (WR/Kentucky)
Cobb is a speedster that Atlanta can pair with Roddy White, giving Matt Ryan a pair of weapons to throw the ball to, rather than just Roddy White and, um, Brian Finneran?
28. New England Patriots- Danny Watkins (OG/Baylor)
Just the usual sexy New England Patriots draft pick, right?
29. Chicago Bears- Christian Ballard (DT/Iowa)
Chicago is a team that needs help on both lines. They’re a likely destination for Danny Watkins, but with him off the board, they move to the D-Line, to a good fit with the hoss Ballard.
30. New York Jets- Marvin Austin (DT/North Carolina)
Austin’s talent has to be intriguing to Rex Ryan. What has to be even more intriguing is that he fills a huge need for the Jets. Austin’s ceiling places him just below Fairley and Dareus. His 2010 season suspension places him at the bottom of the first round, at the earliest.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers- Aaron Williams (CB/Texas)
There are a number of CBs who are all very similar in terms of draft grades. I think Pittsburgh takes the guy who played in the pass happy conference and played well.
32. Green Bay Packers- Cameron Heyward (DE/Ohio State)
There isn’t a whole lot of work the Packers need to do to get better. Because, you know, they won the Super Bowl last year. Heyward is a great fit for the Packers and comes with an NFL pedigree (his father is Ironhead Heyward. Trust me, no one will ever mention that during his career…).
Before we go, I’d like to give you the best players (according to me) at every position (of consequence) who remain on the board.
QB- Andy Dalton- He’s not going to wow anyone with his downfield arm. He will be a great game manager though. Think Trent Dilfer. And that’s not a slight to Dalton.
RB- Mikel Leshoure- A solid all-around back. Leshoure won’t blow you away with his quickness. He won’t blow you away with his physicality. But he should stay healthy and produce.
WR- Jerrell Jernigan- A sound route runner. Does all of the little things well. His biggest knock is his size. I’ve heard this drill before.
TE- Kyle Rudolph- No brainer.
OL- Derek Sherrod- A possible first rounder for a team like Indianapolis or Pittsburgh who need help on the line. A very solid pass blocker.
DL- Muhammad Wilkerson- A high-growth DT who played at lower tier Temple. Room to grow in his smallish frame. Very quick. Could go in Round 1.
LB- Dontay Moch- Another high upside guy. Ran a 4.4 40-yard dash. Could move to safety.
DS- Ras-I Dowling- A big cornerback with a great name. Why not?
Enjoy the Draft folks.

Perk Is Gone…Now What?

Kendrick Perkins was not the heart and soul of the Celtics. For a while there, he was the Achilles heel. His offensive game took forever to develop. He was (and remains) a terrible foul shooter. Even his defense left something to be desired. And it’s hard to overlook the fact that he was a sourpuss. Perk has never committed a foul if you ask him. For me, Perk was famous for having his profanities picked up by broadcast shotgun microphones. If I had a dollar for every time I heard him yell the F-word followed by the N-word, well, I’d be able to re-sign him this offseason. Something the Celtics won’t be able to do.


I had no idea that the trade had happened until about 45 minutes after the deadline. A coworker sent me the story while I was on the telephone with a reporter. I stopped listening to the receiver on my phone for a few seconds, trying to process what I was reading. Perk and Nate traded? For former Celtic legend Jeff Green and Nenad Kristic????!!!! What am I missing???? I couldn’t wait to get off the phone to find out it was just a rumor and never happened. Oops.

The personal backstory for me has to start with the fact that I didn’t love Perk’s game until last season. And as for Nate, well, lets just say I may have let out at least one (well, only one) Perk-like expletive when the C’s acquired him last year. But truth be told, I grew to love Nate. I liked what he brought to the table in Boston. I saw development in his game from UW to the Knicks to the C’s. The Nate who I watched in college had developed into more than just a basketball playing freak of nature. Gone were the constant dumb passes and gone was the total defensive apathy. Nate gave a darn. And I loved that, really.

I’m going to stop setting up the story here and just get to the meat. I think this is an awful deal for Boston and for once, I know I’m not alone. I hear the argument that the 4th quarter lineup is the same now. Really? What if Jeff Green, a streaky shooter since his time at Georgetown, is on fire? Does he get benched? Or do the C’s go small? What position does Green play in Boston? Does he come off the bench? Because if he’s coming off the bench, Doc is doing something wrong. Jeff Green is an NBA starter. Don’t get me wrong, the Celtics got the best player in this deal. But this deal isn’t about who’s best. Jeff Green doesn’t fit the system here. In Oklahoma City, they’re the Western Conference favorite to me. Perk and Nate give them exactly what they needed. A tough, mean, physical force down low and a scoring guard off the bench who can spot Westbrook or move him to the 2. The move gives OKC positive flexibility. Boston has flexibility too. But not the good kind.

I hear the argument that Glen Davis can play center. I think it’s the stupidest thing I’ve ever heard. If you truly expect Glen Davis to start at center in the playoffs and go up against Dwight Howard, Joakim Noah, or heck, Roy Hibbert (likely first round opponent and a much improved team with the OJ Mayo acquisition) in a 7 game series and come out on top, you’re wrong. And I’m not about to go to Vegas and bet on KG’s knees. No thank you. Garnett might be healthier this year than last, but he’s also a year older. And with age comes wiseness. But with age also continues the breakdown of the human body. Same story for the Fragile O’Neal Brothers. If they’re healthy, different story.

The elephant in the room for me is the Chicago Bulls. Last night was the first time the Bulls had Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah healthy and in the lineup. And yes, they lost to the lowly Raptors. I’m not at all concerned. This team will gel. They’re the best coached team in the East. They play defense. They’re big. And they’re led by, to this point in the season, the NBA’s MVP in Derrick Rose. In a seven game series, I’m concerned about KG/Big Baby vs. Carlos Boozer/Noah. Noah is a rebounding machine. Glen Davis, er, not so much. What happened to the Celtics last year against LA was the Lakers used their size to exploit Boston’s biggest weakness: a lack of rebounding. Today, the Celtics decided to exploit their own weakness.

Look, maybe this move works out for Boston. Maybe Shaq gets healthy and contributes. Maybe KG’s knees hold up for one more run. Maybe I’m underselling Glen Davis’ big-man ability while overselling the Chicago Bulls. Maybe.

I guess I’m just mad. I watched New York get better this week. Chicago got better. Atlanta got better(ish). Miami stayed very good. Orlando made their big deal already. Boston hasn’t made themselves better. Will they with an acquisition of Troy Murphy? Certainly. He fills a huge void. Until then though, I look at a team that was a threat and I see the Miami Heat, New York Knicks, Chicago Bulls, and Orlando Magic feeling a little bit better about their chances this year. This was the end of the line for the Celtics. I knew it. You knew it. There’s no next year. Next year is a long way away. There are no young pieces in Beantown (especially not with the trading away of Semih Erden today) other than the very inconsistent Avery Bradley and Rondo. A nucleus that does not make. Today should have been about adding a veteran to fill the James Posey role without hurting the nucleus. Instead, the nucleus is gone. And in its place? A lot of uncertainty. And uncertainty with age is never a good thing.

Another College Basketball Post (And my Super Bowl Prediction)

Thursday night, I got to bear witness to one of my least favorite announcer moves. It happens when the play-by-play man asks the color commentator a specific question, often yes or no, and the color commentator says, “Well, yes, but also no. And everyone else.”

The specifics: During Thursday night’s Ohio State/Michigan game, the question was posed, “Is Ohio State the best team in America?” The color commentator’s answer? (Paraphrase) “Well, they’re good. And Kansas is good. And you can’t forget about Pittsburgh. And Duke won it last year. So yeah, I could see Ohio State playing in the Final Four.”

This set off a rant by me. Amanda got to bear witness. My biggest complaint was this: How easy is it to answer that question? Are they the best or not? The answer is simple. Yes, they’re the best. They’re undefeated. No one else is. They’re the top ranked team in every poll. They’re as flawless a team as there could be in 2010-11. Why take the easy way out? They’re a Final Four team? Way to go out on a limb.
This is the Troy Aikman rule of color commentary. You’ll see it on Sunday at the Super Bowl. Aikman loves not saying something decisively. Joe Buck will ask, “Troy, what’s your favorite bread?” and Aikman will say, “Well, ya Joe, you’re right, rye bread is delicious. But it’s important to not forget about sourdough, pumpernickel, and 12-grain honey wheat too. I mean, really, rye is one of my 9 favorite types of bread.”
Why this brand of broadcasting irks me so is easy to explain. I like opinions. And I like people who aren’t afraid to express their opinions in an intelligent, fact-supported way. What harm would have been done if last night’s color commentator had said, “You know, guy, I still think Kansas is the best team in the country. Here’s why: (list of opinions supported by facts).” In life, nothing good comes from timidity.
My rant then spawned a sort of brainstorming session for me. Amanda asked me who I thought were the four best teams in college basketball. And I know that I just wrote about college basketball recently. But, I’m all-in with college basketball right now. There’s only one football game left (Pittsburgh wins 27-24 in Super Bowl XLV). Baseball, with any consequence, is two months away. And the NBA and NHL don’t matter until May. So for me, it’s all about college basketball.
I’ll be brief(ish) in my response to Amanda’s question:
Ohio State and Kansas are the two best teams in college basketball and I fully expect them to make it to the Final Four. As I’ve written in this space before, they’re the two most balanced teams offensively and are very deep. (As a sort of side note: Ohio State is so good defensively).
So who joins them? Duke, first. I’m not concerned about the St. John’s loss. Not one bit. A road loss to a good team at the end of January never killed anyone’s chances of winning a national championship. The Devils’ lack of an interior presence hurts them against the Ohio State’s and Kansas’s of the world, but less so against the Memphis’s and Washington’s of the world. I like Duke’s experience and shooting ability. They’re my third team.
And now, the challenge! Our candidates for the fourth slot include everyone. Well, within reason. I don’t foresee Auburn making the Final Four. If I have to pick my five candidates (don’t worry, I’m going to pick one of them), I’ll take: Texas, Pittsburgh, San Diego State, Syracuse, and BYU. Each of those teams has a fatal flaw. Texas’s is coaching. Pittsburgh’s is overall offensive. San Diego State’s is mid-range shooting. Syracuse’s is wild inconsistency. And BYU’s is depth. The question is not, who’s best? It’s, “which of those short-comings is easiest to overcome?”

Coaching is not. Texas is a talented enough team to win a game in Lawrence, KS in January and they’re talented enough to make the Elite 8. But when you reach the Elite 8, it almost always comes down to the best coach making the right call. And if you follow college basketball like I do, you know that Rick Barnes almost never makes the right call. He’s a fabulous recruiter. That’s the nicest thing I can say about him as a coach. Texas is eliminated.

Depth is not. I watch the Cougars and realize that they are a one man team, much like Davidson was in 2008. And eventually, that catches up with you. Now, don’t get me wrong, there are some pieces of the Cougars puzzle who are better than the complimentary pieces on that Davidson team. And I think that as a college player, Jimmer Fredette is better than Stephen Curry was. That Davidson team couldn’t do what last year’s Butler team could because when they went up against a deep team (Kansas) they couldn’t match-up for the full game. The same fate awaits BYU. And Elite 8 loss to Kansas. BYU is eliminated.

Overall offensive sluggishness is not. Every year, we talk about Pittsburgh as a Final Four team. They’re tough and physical. They wear you down. And every year, they get outplayed by a smaller, quicker, fresher team who hasn’t spent their entire season playing attrition basketball. The same thing will happen this year. Pittsburgh’s good enough to beat anyone in one game. In a tournament, they’re not. Pittsburgh is eliminated.

So that leaves San Diego State and Syracuse. And that’s where it gets hard to predict. If the Syracuse team that won in Hartford on Wednesday shows up to the tourney, I like Syracuse. They have an inside game and a decent outside game. They play good defense. When they’re on. But if the Syracuse team that got blown out by Seton Hall shows up then I think they’re this year’s Georgetown. They’ll lose to Cleveland State in Round 1 (or 2 because of this year’s stupid 68 team field). You can’t afford to be inconsistent in March. Syracuse is eliminated.

Ultimately, I like San Diego State as that fourth team. And I know that it sounds crazy to your east coast brain. But trust me, as someone who’s watched more Mountain West basketball this season than you’d care to, that conference is really really good. I plan my Wednesday night around the CBS College Sports MWC game of the week. And I do it because I like watching good basketball. Smart basketball. Basketball that’s about strategy and endurance more than it is about having 10 blue-chippers throwing alley-oops all game long. San Diego State, BYU, UNLV, and Colorado State could all make the Sweet 16. You don’t think so because you haven’t seen them play. But trust me, as your “MWC expert”, they can. Now, will all four (and a deserving New Mexico team) make the tournament? Probably not. East coast bias. It’s hard to stay up until midnight on a Wednesday to watch a basketball game being played 2000 miles away. Especially when you’ve never heard of the players. But trust me, it’s worth it. Watch San Diego State once before the MWC tournament and you’ll agree. They play better defense than anyone other than Ohio State. They’re tough and physical when they need to be. They’re deep. They’re well coached. They have a point guard in DJ Gay who will be a household name come March. They’re led by future NBA star Kawhi Leonard. Their “fatal flaw” is that they don’t shoot the ball well from the mid-range or the 3-point line. But they can overcome. If Provo, Utah was at sea level, the Aztecs would still be undefeated. They lost that game because they weren’t conditioned to play BYU’s game at a mile above sea level. They won’t have to do that in March. And because of that, I believe they’re the fourth best team in the nation. Even if the nation doesn’t know it yet.

An Analytical Examination of The Effect of Sunlight on Plant Growth (Nah, Just Me Writing About College Basketball)

I’ve been putting off writing a mid-season analysis of the 2010-11 college basketball season for quite some time (well, since the midway point) now and, really, I’m not exactly jonesing to get it done. Now, don’t get me wrong, that’s not because I haven’t enjoyed this season. I have. In fact, I don’t remember the last college basketball season that I’ve followed more closely than this one. There’s a lot of star power out there, but for the first time in a while, it’s the teams that are stars and not the players. And I love that. There is no true freshman or sophomore sensation sweeping the nation this year. Some would argue that Ohio State’s Jared Sullinger is, but think back to John Wall, Blake Griffin, and Michael Beasley the previous three years. Those guys dominated the press coverage like Sullinger hasn’t. And for good reason. The team Sullinger is on is more complete than last year’s Kentucky team, 2009’s Oklahoma team, or Beasley’s 2008 Kansas State team. Sullinger has David Lighty, Jon Diebler, and William Buford all averaging double-digit points per game. Ohio State goes 8 deep really well (Dallas Lauderdale was playing 25 minutes per game last year. Now he’s the seventh man on this team). And they’re well-coached and well-disciplined. In short, they’re a complete team.

And that sort of comes to my point about my excitement, or lack thereof, for writing: I can only really see a handful of teams with a legitimate shot at a title. In years past, you could see more teams getting there because of stars leading a team. Like Rose did in Memphis in 2008. Look, that Memphis team had Chris Douglas-Roberts and Joey Dorsey and went deep on the bench, but that was Rose’s team. And you knew that stopping Rose stopped the Tigers. With this season’s Ohio State team (and that’s just an example) you can try to stop Sullinger inside and get hurt by Diebler (49.5% from 3) and Lighty (45% from 3). As a team, Ohio State shoots 50% from the field (4th in the nation). Stopping one guy does not stop Ohio State.

Now, this scenario will be very sexy come the time for the Elite 8. That weekend of the tournament will be epic. Games where strategy, rather than stars, wins. We haven’t seen those recently. And so I’m excited for the end of March. As for the rest of the regular season? And the first two rounds of the tournament? I don’t know that we’re going to see a lot of surprises, upsets, and compelling story lines.

So why not invent some???? Here are my top three potential story lines that could make the time between now and March 26 (the start of the Elite 8) just a little more exciting:

3. Kyrie Irving and the Duke Blue Devils

Mike Krzyzewski has remained mostly mum on the status of injured freshman guard Kyrie Irving. In short, Irving was the most impressive freshman I’ve seen this century. Better than Wall. Better than Rose. He was complete in every sense. It says a lot that the Devils have only lost once since he went down against Butler in early December. If he comes back this season, I’ll push all of my chips to the center of the table for the Devils. Without him, Duke is great. But how great? And so we sit and wait. Maybe Krzyzewski is playing opossum and Irving will return in late February to get in shape for a March run. Or maybe he’s really done for the season. Just know that I think about this way more than I should.

2. Rock Chalk

Kansas can go undefeated. Before Irving’s injury, I said the same about Duke. Now, if someone can do it, it’s not San Diego State (more on that in a moment) or Ohio State (they’ll lose in Champaign on January 22). No, the team that can go undefeated is Kansas. And it has nothing to do with schedule. Kansas has a couple of roadblocks on the schedule (at Mizzou to close out the season, and at a struggling Kansas State team in mid-February that will need a win to stay alive for the tournament (and even that might not help the Wildcats)). But Kansas is much better than Missouri and Kansas State. I expected Kansas to struggle a bit last night with the size and length of Baylor. Instead, they won by 20. Kansas is better this year, more balanced this year, than when they won the National Title in 2008. The Morris twins give the Jayhawks interior toughness they haven’t had in a long time (apologies to Darrell Arthur, Nick Collison, and Cole Aldrich). Meanwhile, they can bury you from outside. No team in the country shoots better than the Jayhawks. And no team in the country is deeper than the Jayhawks (10 players averaging 14+ minutes per game). Do I think Kansas finishes the regular season undefeated? Yes, I do.

1. The Mountain West race

Look, I won’t blame you if you don’t care about a conference whose games show up on the CBS College Sports Network. But you’re missing some really good, physical basketball. The MWC is the Big East of the West and the fourth best conference in college hoops (after the Big East, Big 12, and Big 10). The current top 10 features 4 Big East teams, 2 Big 12 teams, 1 Big 10 team, 1 ACC team, and 2 Mountain West teams. And it’s not just luck. San Diego State (the nation’s 6th ranked team) is a legitimate Final Four team. No novelty needed. They’re relatively deep, offensively rebound as well as anyone, shoot well, and are tough as nails when they need to be. Rather than try to get teams to play their game, the Aztecs adapt to their opponents game and do it better than them. UNLV tried to outwork the Aztecs defensively. They lost. New Mexico tried to outrun the Aztecs. They lost. And UNLV and New Mexico are tournament teams. San Diego State is undefeated and on a collision course towards the potential regular season game of the year, not just in the American Southwest, but in all the country, on Wednesday January 26 in Provo, Utah against BYU.

BYU wants to out shoot you. And more often than not, they do. The Cougars are led by Jimmer Fredette. If you haven’t heard of Jimmer, don’t worry, I didn’t spell “Jimmy” incorrectly. He’s known as just “Jimmer” or “The Jimmer (my preference).” He is the sharpshooter’s sharpshooter. Fredette leads the nation in scoring at 26 PPG and leads the Cougars in assists. He’s the kind of player the media loves. He’s a white Mormon named Jimmer, whose brother is a Mormon rapper, who may be the best player in college basketball. I mean, c’mon, right?

But while Jimmer might seem like a novelty, he’s not. He’s the real deal. More so than Adam Morrison was. Jimmer is an NBA player, not just some four year national love affair. He’s played well as BYU’s PG this season and in the right environment, will be a real good NBA guard. His range is limitless and he has a swagger that a guy like Adam Morrison clearly lacked. Don’t expect The Jimmer to grow a porn-stache.

I’d be remiss if I made the MWC all about SDSU and BYU. New Mexico, UNLV, and to a lesser extent, Colorado State have all played well this season. UNLV intrigues me the most of this group because they’re a really good defensive club. UNLV is an outside shooter away from being where the Cougars and Aztecs are. They’ve beaten Wisconsin, Virginia Tech, and Kansas State already this season and outside of a fluke loss to UC-Santa Barbara, should be a Top 25-ranked team.

So who wins the MWC? San Diego State. I think the Aztecs win a classic in Provo next Wednesday night. Stay up (10 pm Eastern), find the CBS College Sports Network, sit back, and enjoy. I don’t think the Aztecs can do the undefeated season. They’ll slip up somewhere, against someone they probably shouldn’t. And frankly, it would be better for them. If I had to guess where they lose, I’d say UNLV gets them when they play in Vegas on February 12th.

So who wins it all? Here’s the list of teams that I think can win the title. It’s worth noting from the outset that no team from the Big East finds themselves here. If there’s anything I’ve learned from watching the war of attrition that is the Big East schedule, it’s that those teams are not conditioned to playing fast teams like Kansas and Duke. Heck, look at last year. Syracuse, a 1 seed, was eliminated in the Sweet 16 by a small, sharpshooting team in Butler. Georgetown, a 3 seed, lost in the First Round to an Ohio team that killed the Hoyas with quickness. Pittsburgh lost in Round 2 to a guard-dominated, perimeter Xavier team. And Marquette lost in Round 1 to the ultimate in quick, guard-dominated teams in Washington. Any one of this year’s Big East teams would be eliminated in a Sweet 16 matchup with a team like Missouri or Washington. And so knowing that they’ll each have to play a quick, guard laden team, I just can’t see any of them hoisting a trophy in early April.

The Favorites (ranked)
1. Kansas: See above.
Possible Fatal Flaw: Occasional laziness from the Morris twins.

2. Duke: There’s something to be said for a team that’s been there and done that. Duke has players who’ve gone through the March grind. In fact, they don’t just have players who’ve done it, they have leaders, in Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith.
Possible Fatal Flaw: Total lack of size. This Duke team would get killed by Kansas under most circumstances.

3. Ohio State: See above.
Possible Fatal Flaw: That we’re overrating them. I’ve yet to see Ohio State play 40 minutes this season (like, literally, as in I have only watched bits and pieces of them). They’ve frankly underwhelmed me thus far, from what I’ve seen. And I’m not a fan of the Big 10. Ohio State can play up to the speed of the elites, if they have to. But they haven’t had to, yet. The skill is there. It’s a matter of putting it together like they did in 2007.

They Can Do It (Maybe)
1. Any one of: Syracuse, Pittsburgh, UConn, or Villanova

2. San Diego State: They’re complete. They’re effective. They can play a number of styles. They have a great player in Kawhi Leonard and a very, very good coach in Steve Fisher. If their name was “North Carolina” everyone would be a believer. Because they’re a team from the oh-so inferior Mountain West (SARCASM!) they won’t be treated as they should be.
Fatal Flaw: As good as BYU and UNLV are, SDSU has not and will not see the athletes that Kansas can run out there. 10 deep at that.

3. Michigan State: Right now, they’re hanging around in the weeds, waiting until March. They’re a veteran team who played a rough non-conference schedule, coached by one of the greatest college coaches of all time. You can sell them short all you want. I’m at the Spartan party.
Fatal Flaw: Lack of athleticism as a team. Duke beat them by 5 at Cameron, with Kyrie Irving. The score doesn’t reflect it, but Duke beat them much worse than by 5 points. They outran the Spartans all night. If Michigan State can get their opponent to play their game, the athleticism thing isn’t a problem. But if, say, Kansas, forces the issue, Michigan State should get left in the dust.

4. BYU: Jimmer can get hot.
Fatal Flaw: Jimmer needs to get very hot for a month. That’s a lot to ask.

They Really Can’t Do It, But I Feel Like Talking About Them At Random
1. Kansas State: I don’t recall a more frustrating team to watch in the last five years. They’re incredibly talented. That’s about it. To say that the Wildcats have no team leadership would be like saying Young Jeezy has no street cred. I watch this team play and I spend most of the time shaking my head. Early, off-balanced shots. Lazy defense. And zero accountability. Frank Martin should not have a job after this season. Kansas State’s preseason top five ranking was deserved, on paper. They proved early on, with embarrassing performances against Duke, Florida, and UNLV that they didn’t deserve that, in real life. Can this team catch fire? Honestly, watching them, no. They can’t. I’m not sure they’ll even make the tournament. And that’s a shame for the fans in the Little Apple, who came in expecting a run at a title, as I did.

2. Baylor: Another thoroughly disappointing team. Baylor’s athleticism is off the charts. With Kyrie Irving’s injury, Baylor has the likely first overall pick in June’s NBA draft in Perry Jones III. They also have an excellent pure scorer in LaceDarius Dunn. Jones III and Dunn are complimented by a group of swingmen with infinite wingspans who can jump out of the gym. The question after a little more than half the season is if they can play basketball while jumping out of the gym. So far, the jury is still out. I watched them play zero interior defense last night against Kansas. I mean, Brady Morningstar could have been playing the 5 and he would have produced last night. This team, unlike Kansas State, can make a serious run at the Final Four. Whereas Kansas State has a personality issue, Baylor has an execution issue. You can fix that in two months. Kansas State needs a complete makeover.

3. Texas A&M: You know, it’s cute that they’re a top 10 team and all, but consider that their biggest win of the season was a two point, home, overtime victory over an inconsistent Missouri team on Saturday. Texas A&M’s only loss of the season was to Boston College. The same Boston College team that lost to Yale and Harvard. So, yeah, I’m not a big believer in Mark Turgeon and the Aggies.

4. Purdue: If Robbie Hummel had knees, they’d be in the group with Kansas, Duke, and Ohio State.

5. Saint Mary’s: They have two losses this season. They are to San Diego State and BYU. They’re 7th in the nation in scoring offense, 2nd in assists, and 2nd in FG %. “Watch out,” is all I’m saying. You were warned when everyone says, “How did that team end up in the Sweet 16?”

6. Gonzaga: This could be the end of the run for America’s Cinderella.

It is the end of the run for this post. Enjoy the remainder of the regular season. There might not be a lot of reasons to watch until March, but I’ll certainly be watching.

Putting a Bow on a Really Great Present

This is my 200th post and I couldn’t use this milestone (?) (work with me here) on a better topic or at a better time than after a great college football game, at 12:30 AM.


First thing first: Nick Fairley has to be the top pick in the 2011 NFL Draft. Fairley was more than unstoppable. Kirk Herbstreit referenced Ndamakung Suh. It’s an apt comparison. Perhaps it’s not fair to Fairley. He was conditioned, he was ferocious, and he was unstoppable coming off the line. Carolina would be crazy to draft Da’Quan Bowers or Patrick Peterson or AJ Green first overall. Fairley was fabulous.

A close second to Fairley’s fabulosity was the freshman Michael Dyer. I wrote in my preview that if I was Chip Kelly, Dyer would be the guy (other than Cameron Newton) I’d be most scared of. Dyer did not disappoint. Auburn fans saw flashes of Dyer’s possessed brilliance this season, but he was mostly held in check by SEC defenses. Tonight, against a Pac-10 defense (and a good one at that), Dyer had his national coming out party. A lot can happen in an offseason, but I’m very nervous if I’m an SEC D-Coordinator heading into the 2011 regular season. Dyer could be dangerous.

As for this game, just wow. It was equal parts suspenseful, weird, sloppy, clean, ugly, and pretty. If you’re a Shoney’s type of person, you loved this game, because no matter what you like to pile your plate with, you had it in the 2011 National Title game.

We were all wrong. Both defenses played very well. I was impressed with the speed of Oregon’s defense. They shut down Cameron Newton better than any team did during the regular season. They were quicker to the edge and only once did they give him the seam. The only thing missing for the Ducks defensively was a more consistent pass rush. That was not there in Glendale for U of O.

As good as Oregon’s defense was, Auburn’s was stunning. The pressure that their defensive line created on Darron Thomas was only outdone by the pressure they put on Kenjon Barner and LaMichael James when either took a read handoff from Thomas. I did not think, not in a million years, that Auburn’s line was going to crash the line of scrimmage and get so quickly, so easily to Oregon’s dynamic backs. Ted Roof earned his money tonight. The secondary looked, um, bad, but it didn’t become a relevant issue in this game. And that credit is due to Roof and Tiger coach Gene Chizik. Defense won the national championship game that the offense got them to. If that’s not a complete team, I’m not sure what is.

Finally, and even despite his quiet (by his standards) game, Cameron Newton deserves mention. Without him, the TCU Horned Frogs would be celebrating right now and the Tigers would have been your Gator Bowl Champions. Newton almost lost this game. From the short-armed pass on 4th and Goal in the second quarter (he was saved by a safety), to his miss of Darvin Adams in the 3rd quarter (his defense saved him) to the fumble late in the 4th (he was saved Michael Dyer and Wes Byrum), Newton was as average as a 6’6″, power running, strong armed QB can be. When needed, Newton made a play. But he didn’t make the plays that helped him win a Heisman. And so now, the questions will center around whether he’ll enter the NFL Draft. I think he has to. His stock will never be higher. In one year, Cam accomplished what no Auburn QB has accomplished in half a century. He will be forever cherished by Tiger fans. And he deserves every bit of that. He has a future in the NFL. He needs a lot of seasoning. Oregon’s defense showed that tonight. His mechanics aren’t clean and his decision making isn’t always great. That said, on potential alone, he’s a first round draft pick. If Vince Young could be the third overall pick, Cam can too. Say what you want about his character (it’s great, but whatever) but he’s a world more mature today than Vince Young is. If I’m a team that needs a QB in 2 years, for 10 years, I’m drafting Cameron Newton.

If Cam returns to The Plains, Auburn is the preseason favorite. Hands down. There’s a good recruiting class coming in and some good returning complimentary pieces. If Cam doesn’t return, well, playing in the SEC West, repeating is hard. Just ask LSU. Or Alabama.

But next year is just that. Tonight, or this morning, like always, I’ll be savoring the joy and excitement that college football brings me and a lot of other people. Tonight’s game might not have been the 2006 Rose Bowl game. It might not have been 2002’s Fiesta Bowl. But it was a fascinating game. If they played again next week, Oregon might win. The week after? Probably Auburn. And so on. These were two deserving teams, with a bunch of players who, while they might not become NFL stars, busted tail for 60 minutes. And it was a true joy to watch. War Eagle.

Tigers Eat Ducks. That’s How The World Works.


Every so often, a game comes along that, on paper, seems to embody all that is wonderful about sport and competition. Tonight’s BCS National Championship fits that bill. And then some.

First, the teams. Before the season, seemingly every prognosticator had Alabama facing Ohio State in Glendale tonight. And it made sense. Alabama came into the season returning the bulk of their offense from last year’s National Championship team. And Ohio State was coming off of a 2 loss season that saw them dominate Oregon in the Rose Bowl and was returning the bulk of their offense and defense. So, in short (or long) I can’t criticize those predictions (for the record, I picked Alabama and Florida. Let’s move on).
Hiding in the weeds were the Oregon Ducks and the Auburn Tigers. Oregon began the season as the Pac-10 favorite and #11 in the USA Today Coaches Poll. I picked Oregon to finish behind Stanford in the Pac-10, writing that I thought the black cloud from last season (LaGarrette Blount’s punching incident and Jeremiah Masoli’s inability to stay out of trouble) would hamper the Ducks and lead them to a 9-3 season. Though I did write that they should be an 11-1 or 12-0 season. But the kind of 12-0 they were? I didn’t see that coming. I knew that Oregon’s offense wanted to go fast, but this year, with Darron Thomas at the helm, they went Mach 5 fast. And they made their opponents look bad in doing so. In their second game of the season, they went into Knoxville and found themselves tied 13-13 at the half. They won that game 48-13. Only one opponent stayed within single digits of the Ducks (Cal, in a game the Bears should have won, frankly.). Other than the Cal game, the fewest points Oregon scored in a game this season was 37. You know how good Stanford is? Oregon beat them by 21. The phrase “well-oiled machine” gets thrown around a lot. The Oregon Ducks are a Bentley. They’re a pre-Iceberg Titanic. They’re Eli Whitney’s cotton gin.
Way down at the bottom of the preseason USA Today Coaches Poll was the Auburn Tigers at #23. People knew the Oregon Ducks coming into 2010. Folks didn’t know the Tigers, really. There was some preseason hype. Kirk Herbstreit of ESPN picked them to win the SEC West. But most people thought they were a middle-of-the-pack SEC West team. Which isn’t bad frankly, with LSU, Alabama, and Arkansas up there. Auburn, however, was much better than a middle-of-the-pack team. They were the SEC’s best team, slaying their way through a murderer’s row conference schedule en route to a 12-0 regular season record. But it wasn’t always easy for Auburn. Unlike the Ducks, Auburn played a number of close games. That number is 6. 6 one-score games. Most of the credit for Auburn’s dream season, deservedly so, is given to their Heisman Trophy winning quarterback, Cameron Newton. Newton was the most dynamic and dominant player in college since Reggie Bush, albeit playing a different position. No one stopped Newton this year. No one kept him in check for an entire game. He finished the season with 49 total TDs (including one receiving). He ran through, around, and then through, again, the best defenses in America, putting up staggering numbers. Like 217 rushing yards against LSU. Or 216 passing yards and 3 TDs against Alabama. No matter what he faced, Cam Newton had an answer. If you went in looking to stop the run, you got deep bombs to Darvin Adams and Terrell Zachery. If you dropped 7 into coverage, you got a 6’6” quarterback knocking your linebackers over. He was truly a man amongst boys and is owed a lot of the credit for Auburn being here.
Beyond the “nobody expected us to be here” card and their explosive offenses these two teams, at least historically. have nothing in common. Auburn sits historically near the precipice of being a top-tier program, like the Nebraskas, Oklahomas, and Alabamas. Part of what has kept Auburn from that is the fact that they’ve only won one National Championship (1957). They’ve been close. Like in 2004 when they were denied (folks in the “loveliest village” will tell you robbed…they’re right) an opportunity, at 12-0, to play for a title. They also finished 1993 undefeated, but were on probation. In 1983, they entered the bowl season number 4 in the country, won their bowl game, saw each team ahead of them lose, and still somehow only ended the season 3rd in the polls. Auburn has always played second fiddle, even in their state, where they take a back seat to the University of Alabama in terms of success and prestige. Nothing would make the so-called (by Bama fans) “Barners” happier than to shut up their cross-state rivals and finally win what has eluded them for 54 years.
Oregon on the other hand, has never been here before. That’s really their history. They’ve never played in a championship game. Their program, twenty years ago, didn’t matter. It wasn’t until Nike mogul Phil Knight put an estimated $300 million into the program that Oregon started having football success. Even still, the school truly lacks a signature victory. A win tonight would be a Hancock-like signature victory, and perhaps cement the Ducks as the most dominant team in recent memory (at least since Miami at the start of the 2000s.).
But it won’t happen. I cannot lie that all of the numbers, and all of the media coverage, point to a Ducks win. And I’m biased. I want a Tiger victory. I want to see Cameron Newton shut people up. I want to see Oregon’s coach, Chip Kelly, shut up. I don’t want to hear any more about how quickly the Ducks operate and how great LaMichael James is. I don’t want to listen to another Chip Kelly halftime interview. I don’t want to see him in the postgame interview. I don’t care about the winged, multi-colored uniforms, and pewter helmets. I understand that people don’t want to hear or see Cameron Newton. I understand that people think he’s a cheater and a liar and want to watch him lose. People are sick of seeing him smile after games. I get that. I, however, will be rooting for the college kid whose father solicited money from another university in return for his son’s potential enrollment. I will be rooting for the most exciting college player I’ve seen since _________________ (fill in the blank). I love watching Cameron Newton play football. Because Cameron Newton clearly loves playing football.
Auburn beats Oregon with a huge game from LB Josh Bynes. Bynes will have to stay focused for 60 minutes. He will have to read Darron Thomas’ every hand off. He will have to be as fit as he’s ever been. Auburn needs him on the field, maybe even more than DT Nick Fairley. Against a team like the Ducks, the linebackers are more important than the defensive line. If you go in thinking that you’re going to stop LaMichael James and Kenjon Barner in the backfield, you’re wrong. But if you can stop them just after the line of scrimmage and put the Ducks in 3rd and Mediums, you can stop them. Darron Thomas is not a refined passer. He has weapons in the pass game, especially in Jeffrey Maehl. But the Ducks’ strength is truly in their running game and what they can do on first and second down. California did a great job of getting them into third downs and that’s how they nearly beat them. Oregon was 8-21 on third down in that game. Against USC? 11 of 17. Against Stanford? 6 of 12. The more 3rd downs the Ducks see, the better your chance of beating them.
Offensively, for Auburn, I have no doubt that they’ll score. They might fall behind the Ducks 21-0 in the first quarter. I won’t be concerned. The Tigers can score just as well as the Ducks can. And Oregon’s defense, which I’ve watched a handful of times this year, is not unbeatable, as some pundits would have you believe. They allowed 29 points or more in 4 games. Auburn allowed 29 points or more in 4 games as well. Auburn’s defense is not as bad as some would have you believe. Oregon’s, in turn, is not as good. They’re much closer than the experts think.
For Oregon to beat Auburn, defensively, they need to let Cameron Newton throw, not run. When Auburn throws, they throw. Deep. That means short drives. That means less time for the Tigers defense to rest. That falls right into the Ducks’ wishes. Tire the Auburn defense. Cameron Newton is more likely to make a critical error in the passing game than running. If the Ducks think they can beat Auburn with Newton rushing for over 200 yards, they’re wrong.
My final prediction is for an Auburn victory and I don’t think it’ll be as close as people think. I’ll take the Tigers 45-28. And I know I’m going out on a huge limb and making a bold prediction that could very well be way wrong and in no way falls in line with how most see this game playing out. But I’ve watched the Tigers all year long and watched a lot of the Ducks. I know what I see. I see a better and more complete team down on the Plains. War Eagle.
Some One-Liners About Tonight’s Game and the 2010 Season:
If I’m Oregon, the Auburn Tiger who scares me most (that isn’t Cameron Newton) is: Michael Dyer. The freshman did not have a true breakout game this season. He has the potential to make tonight his coming out party.
If I’m Auburn, the Oregon Duck who scares me most (that isn’t LaMichael James) is: Kenjon Barner. Jeff Maehl scares me a little, but I’m not a Darron Thomas believer. Barner is a better back than LaMichael James. He’s quicker and shiftier. That’s scary if I’m Auburn D-Coordinator Ted Roof.
Preseason Predicition I’m Proudest Of: Stanford winning the Pac-10. I know they didn’t, but there wasn’t a lot of people calling Stanford a potential Pac-10 champ. I’m happy that I praised the Cardinal and Andrew Luck.
Preseason Prediction I’d Most Like to Hide Away Forever: Florida to play in the national title game. And Auburn to finish fourth in the SEC West. That was very stupid.


Enjoy the game tonight!

Quarterback Madness!!!! (Cue Sinister Laughter)

I love tournaments. You love tournaments. I love football. You love football. I think quarterbacks are important. You think…okay you get the picture.

But who’s the best quarterback in the NFL? And not just “the best (Peyton Manning),” but who would you want for your franchise’s future, starting right now. Contracts versus contracts. Potential versus previous success. It’s all so exciting.

We’ll look at the primary QBs for each of the 32 NFL teams, going forward this season, but with some common sense. Tim Tebow is likely not the starter in Denver next year. Just like Shaun Hill and Jon Kitna aren’t the starters for Detroit and Dallas. And for Tennessee, why not go with Rusty Smith (besides the obvious fact being that he’s terrible)? In the curious case of the Carolina Panthers, who are starting a fresh pile of manure every week at QB, let’s just go with Jimmy Clausen for the heck of it (sorry Keith Null). And for Minnesota, are you convinced that Brett Favre isn’t coming back?

Each quarterback will be seeded 1-8, in four different regions with the seeding being based upon their team’s current record in the NFL. So with the Atlanta Falcons, New York Jets, New England Patriots, and Baltimore Ravens (we’re going to alphabetical in instances of tied records because figuring out the tiebreaking scenario between 7 teams for the sake of a blog post, isn’t exactly a wise use of time) being our top 4 teams, Matt Ryan, Mark Sanchez, Tom Brady, and Joe Flacco get our number one seeds. And so on, and so forth. Each region will be named for a great QB of the past. Analysis where necessary.

Round 1
Steve Young Region
1.) Matt Ryan (ATL)
vs.
8.) Jimmy Clausen (CAR)
Matt Ryan wins this easily. Nothing I’ve seen from Clausen in his rookie year lends itself to future success. Meanwhile, Ryan is quickly evolving into a top 7 QB.

4.) Matt Cassel (KCC)
vs.
5.) Donovan McNabb (WAS)
Cassel wins because of youth and because he seems to be evolving into a better QB, while McNabb just exists.

3.) Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)
vs.
6.) Colt McCoy (CLE)
I really think this is closer than I ever would have expected. Roethlisberger makes big money (12 million per). McCoy makes little money ($1.25 million per). It’s hard to believe, but Big Ben is only 4 years older than Colt. Big Ben has also won 2 Super Bowls. But Big Ben is also one misstep away from a year long suspension. Meanwhile, McCoy has shown flashes of near-brilliance in his rookie campaign. Call me crazy, but for my franchise’s future, I’m taking Colt McCoy.

2.) Jay Cutler (CHI)
vs.
7.) Troy Smith (SFO)
Jay Cutler, as mistake prone as he is, gets a good draw here and advances.

John Elway Region
1.) Mark Sanchez (NYJ)
vs.
8.) Matthew Stafford (DET)
I think Stafford is the better QB, but Stafford has also shown himself to be less than durable. Meanwhile, Sanchez is a winner and he’s healthy. And a little cheaper. And more marketable. Tough break for Stafford, drawing Sanchez.

4.) Eli Manning (NYG)
vs.
5.) Rusty Smith (TEN)
If there’s a bigger mismatch on here, Lord help us. Rusty Smith was an inferior college QB. He lacked the tools necessary to be elite at Florida Atlantic. Why an NFL team drafted him, I’ll never know. How he’s starting for an NFL team as a rookie, I don’t want to know.

3.) Josh Freeman (TBB)
vs.
6.) Derek Anderson (ARI)
You see that bandwagon driving by with Josh Freeman’s face on it? I’m driving.

2.) Aaron Rodgers (GBP)
vs.
7.) Brett Favre (MIN)
Funny how this draw happened. This is actually a pretty huge mismatch too, no offense to Rusty Smith.
Otto Graham Region
1.) Tom Brady (NEP)
vs.
8.) Carson Palmer (CIN)
Carson Palmer’s inflated numbers, put up in garbage time, aside, Tom Brady is and always will be, superior to Carson.

4.) Chad Henne (MIA)
vs.
5.) Matt Hasselbeck (SEA)
This is a can’t win matchup. In that it “can’t win” the next round. I’ll take Henne because of his youth.

3.) Peyton Manning (IND)
vs.
6.) Sam Bradford (STL)
Here is the most fascinating matchup of Round 1. Two #1 overall QBs. One is 34 years old. The other is 23 years old. One has won a Super Bowl, multiple MVPs, and is widely regarded as the best QB of this generation, or perhaps any. The other is a rookie, throwing to guys whose wives don’t recognize them on the street. And yet he’s still on pace for 3500 yards passing and 20+ TDs, while keeping his INTs down. The other guy threw 28 INTs in his rookie season. Look, I’m going to level with you here. Manning, today, is a much better QB than Sam Bradford is. But is he necessarily always going to be better than Bradford ever could be? What this boils down to is Peyton Manning for the next 4 or 5 years or Sam Bradford for the next 14 or 15. I want Bradford. A franchise quarterback is terribly valuable. Especially one as marketable as Sam. Especially one as smart as Sam. Sounds a lot like Peyton, no? I almost feel bad not taking Manning, but his career isn’t going to last forever. Bradford’s potential is limitless.

2.) Drew Brees (NOS)
vs.
7.) Kyle Orton (DEN)
This is far easier than the previous one.

Dan Marino Region
1.) Joe Flacco (BAL)
vs.
8.) Ryan Fitzpatrick (BUF)
This is closer than you think. I’ll take Flacco for now.

4.) Jason Campbell (OAK)
vs.
5.) Phillip Rivers (SDG)
Moving on….

3.) David Garrard (JAX)
vs.
6.) Matt Schaub (HOU)
Moving on….

2.) Michael Vick (PHI)
vs.
7.) Tony Romo (DAL)
Another fascinating matchup and by far this region’s most interesting. Vick is 30. Romo is 30. Vick is due to make some serious change. Romo already makes serious change. Vick has been questioned his entire career. Romo has been questioned his entire career. Vick spent two years in prison for running a dogfighting ring out of his home. Tony Romo dated Jessica Simpson. Vick makes a living with his feet and can throw really well. Romo makes a living with his arm and can run pretty well. I’m going to take Romo as my franchise QB. He might not be “a winner,” but neither is Vick, frankly. I’m not sure how to market Vick. Reformed monster? Electric superstar who’s one strike away from career expulsion from the league and almost got there this summer? It’s a hornet’s nest. Vick might be the most exciting player in the league, but they don”t give trophies for that.

Round 2
Steve Young Region

1.) Matt Ryan
vs.
4.) Matt Cassel
In the battle of the Matt’s, the better one wins.

6.) Colt McCoy
vs.
2.) Jay Cutler
FoxSports.com says that Jay Cutler makes $22 million per season. I’ll take Colt McCoy.

John Elway Region
1.) Mark Sanchez
vs.
4.) Eli Manning
Funny how this worked out with the two New York QBs facing each other. If either of these two played in Kansas City or Seattle, they’d be regarded as elite QBs. Instead, the word “shaky” is used to describe them. And yes, at times, both can be shaky. Sanchez “suffers” from being super attractive. Because he’s so attractive, people will have a hard time taking him seriously as an NFL QB. Eli suffers from being Peyton’s younger, dopier looking brother. Because of that, people have a hard time taking him seriously. Both guys are paid quite a lot of money. I’m going with the younger guy and the guy who I like more: Sanchez. He has a moxie that Eli clearly lacks. Sanchez is funny and engaging and marketable. Eli sells rich people’s watches because he plays for the Giants and has a familiar last name. I also think Sanchez is ahead of Eli’s career curve at this point.

3.) Josh Freeman
vs.
2.) Aaron Rodgers
I love how far Josh Freeman has come along. But I am not insane.

Otto Graham Region
1.) Tom Brady
vs.
4.) Chad Henne
I’ve talked a lot about age here and made it the determining factor between two QBs who are close in potential vs. previous success. This is not one of those instances.

6.) Sam Bradford
vs.
2.) Drew Brees
I took Bradford because of his youth and near limitless potential against Peyton Manning. And here I am stuck with the same battle. Brees is three years younger than Peyton. But Peyton is a better QB than Brees. But this isn’t about Brees vs. Manning. It’s about Brees vs. Bradford. And I’m taking Brees. Barely. But I’m taking Brees because he’s the ideal face for an NFL franchise right now and for the next 8 years. He might not have Sam’s measureables. But he’s a franchise face right now; not in two or three years. It’s very close and Bradford is probably going to prove me wrong in 5 years. But today, Brees just edges him out.

Dan Marion Region
1.) Joe Flacco
vs.
5.) Phillip Rivers
This isn’t close at all. Rivers in a landslide. Flacco’s “potential” continues to decrease every game, seemingly. Rivers’ grows.

6.) Matt Schaub
vs.
7.) Tony Romo
Schaub is cheaper, but I’m not sure that he has ever spoken and he has never shown himself to be a winner. Romo has taken teams to the playoffs and Romo can lead a team. I refuse to believe that Romo is to blame for Dallas’ underachieving during his tenure as starting QB.

Round 3
Steve Young Region
1.) Matt Ryan
vs.
6.) Colt McCoy
Colt McCoy’s dream run had to come to a close some time. This was the time. I’ve been so impressed with Matt Ryan’s development. Once he starts consistently winning road games, he’ll catapult into the top 5 in the NFL. He has that much skill. McCoy may never be a top QB.

John Elway Region
1.) Mark Sanchez
vs.
2.) Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers has tools that few other QBs have. He’s mobile, nearly perfect in accuracy, vocal, but not too vocal, easy to root for, and not terribly expensive. Sanchez is going to be very good, but perhaps not elite like Rodgers is.

Otto Graham Region
1.) Tom Brady
vs.
2.) Drew Brees
By far the most difficult of these matchups. Brady has won 3 Super Bowls. Brees has won 1. Brees is two years younger than Brady. Both are already elite QBs and show no signs of letting that fade. I’m going to take Brady here. The previous knee injury worries me a little, but not much. The reason why I’m going with Brady is because he’s a proven, repeated winner. And he’s done it with awful teams. Not subpar. Awful. Antoine Smith? Deion Branch? Benjamin Watson? These are the guys that Brady has won with. Almost in spite of. This is no slight to Brees. He’s great. Brady, though, is an almost perfect QB. And perfection is hard to turn away from.

Dan Marino Region
5.) Phillip Rivers
vs.
7.) Tony Romo
Phillip Rivers hasn’t reached his full potential yet. That’s really scary.

Final Four
1.) Matt Ryan vs. 2.) Aaron Rodgers
At first, I thought that I should labor over this decision. I shouldn’t. Rodgers is only a year older and is much closer to reaching his full potential, which I think is greater than Ryan’s, ultimately. This really isn’t too difficult.

1.) Tom Brady vs. 5.) Phillip Rivers
This one is. Well, until you remember that Phillip Rivers’ career playoff record is 3-4 and he’s thrown more INTs than TDs. Brady is 14-4 in the postseason. And his TD/INT ratio? Nearly 2:1. Brady might be four years older, but I’m not totally stupid. Rivers has had a great season and put up historic numbers. But he’s not the winner that Tom Brady is. And who knows if he’ll ever get there.

Championship
2.) Aaron Rodgers vs. 1.) Tom Brady
Rodgers has started one career playoff game and threw for 4 TD and over 400 yards. He only threw one INT. He lost that game. So Brady has the better career postseason winning percentage. But Rodgers is 26 years old. He has at least a decade ahead of him, maybe more. Rodgers is already an elite QB in just his third season as a starter. He doesn’t make mistakes and throws for a ton of yards.4000 yards in your first season as a starter is wildly impressive. Rodgers did it. Just three years ago. Brady doesn’t need me to write any glowing words about him. He’s a surefire Hall of Famer, 5 years to the day of his retirement. He’s one of the five best QBs of all-time. But this is Aaron Rodgers’ time. And he may very well be in that top 5 with Brady some day. I’m willing to bet the future on it.

Champion
Aaron Rodgers

There’s A Brent Musburger Reference In Here Somewhere

I have 3 blog ideas and 3 days this week before the holiday. Seems like simple math, right? I want to rank the starting QBs in the NFL (a power ranking for the future, if you will), I want to do a full college football bowl projection (because I enjoy wasting your and my time) and finally I want to take inventory of the NFL season. Idea number 3 is the least interesting, so in the vein of how I live my life, we’re going with that one first.

Last month, I took a look at the NFC and believe I may have used the words “terrible,” “horrible,” “no good,” and “very bad” to describe it. That was actually very wrong of me. The NFC certainly has it’s holes (The playoff bound Chicago Bears, the NFC West, Brian St. Pierre, etc) but there’s a lot to be excited about there. Including three potential Super Bowl champions. But we’ll start with the AFC.

(Rankings 1-6 for who I think will make it to the playoffs)

AFC
1. New York Jets (12-4)
I’ve read a few scribes today downgrading the Jets because their last three wins came against the Lions, Browns, and Texans and were not done in convincing fashion. I understand that to a certain extent. I also understand that if you’re 8-2 after 10 games, you’re a pretty good football team. I also realize that the Jets beat the Patriots in their only game so far in 2010. I also realize that the Jets find a way to win their games, and are being led by a quarterback with 15 TDs, 7 INTs, and 2300 Yards passing. Yes, the Jets QB is on pace for a 26 TD, 11 INT, 4000 Yard season. And still, people criticize him like it’s a hobby. If the Jets were the Indianapolis Colts, we’d be going crazy, head over heels for them. But because it’s the Jets, we need to nitpick. I for one, am not nitpicking. They’re the best team in the AFC.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
You tell me who’s second best in the AFC: New England beat the Steelers and the Ravens. The Ravens beat the Jets. But the Jets beat New England. And the Ravens beat the Steelers. But the Steelers were playing without their starting quarterback. And the Steelers beat Atlanta. Who beat Baltimore. Who, yes, beat Pittsburgh. It all comes down to matchups. And Pittsburgh has some easy ones left on their schedule. Buffalo, Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Carolina. The other two games? Of course, the Ravens and Jets. The Steelers are an enigma. The losses to New England and New Orleans concern me. But the Ravens have the same record and despite a head-to-head win, may be more enigmatic than the Steelers.

3. Indianapolis Colts (10-6)
Sorry, I can’t commit myself to giving a David Garrard QB’d team a 3 seed in the playoffs. I don’t care if Jacob Tamme and Blair White are key targets for Peyton Manning. The South is very winnable for the Colts.

4. Kansas City Chiefs (9-7)
They’re undefeated at home and they’ve already gotten their hardest home test (San Diego) out of the way. All they need to do is find a way to win 1 or 2 road games and they’ll sneak in.

5. New England Patriots (12-4)
For what it’s worth, I think they finish in a tie with the Jets, but New York wins the tiebreaker and the bye. The offense is great. The defense, well, not so great.

6. Baltimore Ravens (11-5)
Ray Rice has 3 TDs heading into Week 12. Joe Flacco has not developed into a 4,000 yard passer. Anquan Boldin may have been kidnapped a few weeks ago. And Billy Cundiff will have to win a key game for them down the stretch, right? But then again, remember when they shut out the Jets in the Meadowlands? And do you really trust Mark Sanchez to win a cold weather game?

Baltimore beats Indianapolis and New England beats Kansas City
Baltimore beats New York and New England beats Pittsburgh

AFC Championship: Baltimore beats New England (Shayne Graham misses a GW FG, and Billy Cundiff proves me wrong)

NFC
1. Green Bay Packers (12-4)
Green Bay plays at Atlanta this weekend, goes into the Georgia Dome, and punches the Falcons in the mouth.

2. Atlanta Falcons (12-4)
Green Bay plays at Atlanta this weekend, goes into the Georgia Dome, and punches the Falcons in the mouth. I know that Atlanta has been nearly unbeatable under Mike Smith at home, but the Packers look like they’re on a mission now that they’re healthy. And I don’t think the Falcons are a tough football team.

3. Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)
I’m nervous every time Michael Vick runs to his right. Imagine how Andy Reid feels. Still, when they’re on, they’re more fun to watch than the 1999 Rams.

4. Seattle Seahawks (8-8)
It makes me want to cry. But do you think St. Louis can win a game on the road?

5. New Orleans Saints (11-5)
Flying WAY under the radar right now. They’re slow start may have blinded you to the fact that they’re 7-3. And playing good football since that loss to the Browns.

6. New York Giants (10-6)
I had to go down to the 4th tiebreaker (strength of victory) before giving the Giants the edge over the Buccaneers. Did you know that combined, the Giants and Bucs have won one game against current playoff teams? True story. New York beat Chicago in Week 3. You’ll notice that I don’t have Chicago making the playoffs. Carry on.

Philadelphia beats New York and New Orleans beats Seattle
Green Bay beats New Orleans and Philadelphia beats Atlanta (sidebar: How awesome would that story be if Vick returns to Atlanta in the playoffs?)

NFC Championship Green Bay beats Philadelphia

Super Bowl: Green Bay beats Baltimore.

And yes, if you’re a smart reader, you know that was my preseason prediction.

Some Awards

MVP: Peyton Manning (Runners up: Tom Brady, Josh Freeman, Michael Vick)
OROY: Sam Bradford (Runners up: No one is even close. Dez Bryant and Mike Williams get honorable mention)
DROY: NDamukong Suh (Runners up: Earl Thomas, TJ Ward)
Coach of the Year: Brad Childress……Sorry, I imagined the word “non” in there.
Coach of the Year: Bill Belichick
Best Resurrection of a Career, Ever: Michael Vick
Worst Crucifixion of a Career Ever: Brett Favre

Seriously, did you see this turn of events happening 3 years ago? Michael Vick is the most dynamic player in the NFL and a better QB than he ever was in Atlanta. Meanwhile, Brett Favre is mired in a 3-7 season with the Minnesota Vikings while being investigated by the NFL for allegedly sending pictures of his penis to this girl.

I love sports.

2010-11 Men’s College Basketball (Mini) Preview

I always love my college basketball previews. They’re short and not exactly sweet. I list 8 teams. My final four and my four final four sleepers (current non top 15 teams). I usually hit on a few final four picks (2 of my four last year). A few weeks ago, I would have had Purdue in here, but Purdue will be without star forward Robbie Hummel this season. And with Hummel went Purdue’s national title chances. Without further space-filling, here are my 2010 college basketball picks:

Final Four:
Duke
Michigan State
Pittsburgh
Kansas State

I know it’s chalk. Find me the last non-chalk team to win the National Championship. Thanks.

Final Four Sleepers:
Temple
Brigham Young
Baylor
Washington

That is all. Proceed to not pay attention to college basketball again until after the college football season wraps. See you in mid-January.