Last year, I completed my third edition of “Quarterback Madness,” a March Madness-inspired bracket to determine the ultimate NFL “Franchise Quarterback.” Aaron Rodgers won it for the third time.
In the midst of writing that post, I remarked (on Twitter @midatlanticbias) that I wanted to write a backup quarterback post when I had the time.
Well, as you likely know if you’re reading this, I have the time. Plenty of it, in fact. However, I started that bracket three weeks ago and decided it was a totally foolish exercise to determine who the best backup quarterback in the NFL is (it’s obviously Ryan Mallett…).
(True story, I had a dream last night where I was a running back on the Patriots and we were in the Super Bowl. There were 2:11 left in the 4th quarter and we were losing by 9. I get in the offensive huddle and Brady says, “It’s over. I’m not even going to try.” I say, “Well then let me play quarterback.” Brady says absolutely not. I then say, “Well then get Mallett in the game.” And everyone in the huddle says, “MALLETT?????!!!!” Brady proceeded to throw an INT on the next play. We lost. Probably because I was the running back.)
So here’s (Starting) Quarterback Madness 2013-14:
The rules:
1. This is to determine the ultimate franchise quarterback in the NFL. Not the guy you’d want in a one-game situation right now. No, I want to know which guy you would most want to build your franchise around right now.
2. This is just my opinion. I’ll use supporting evidence where necessary. I’ll also use my opinion. A lot.
3. All 32 teams have a primary starting quarterback. Some of them (Green Bay, New England) are obvious. Some of them (Jacksonville, Minnesota, Houston) are just starting a (technically) living human being. In their case, I’ll just go with whoever I think they would start (health being equal among the depth chart) tomorrow.
4. Quarterbacks are seeded based on their team’s record entering Week 16 when I originally set up this bracket, then ignored it because Christmas, New Years, BCS National Championship travel (I let NFL.com determine the winners of tiebreakers).
5.There are four regions, each named for a backup quarterback from my childhood. They are:
Steve Bono Region (Overall #1 seed)
Scott Zolak Region (Overall #2 seed)
Damon Huard Region (Overall #3 seed)
Stoney Case Region (Overall #4 seed)
In the semifinals, Steve Bono winner plays Stoney Case winner. Let’s get to it.
ROUND 1
Steve Bono Region
#1 Russell Wilson (Sea)
#8 Teddy Bridgewater???? (Okay, Case Keenum) (Hou)
If this were an actual battle between Wilson and Bridgewater, I would probably lean to Teddy, who I think is going to be an elite NFL QB.
Russell Wilson is not an elite QB yet. He’s very good and perhaps better than anyone at the quarterback position when it comes to escaping a collapsing pocket.
Case Keenum has a pulse. That’s the best I can say here. Though, to be fair, I think Keenum can work in the NFL long-term.
#4 Ryan Tannehill (Mia)
#5 Ben Roethlisberger (Pit)
A really tough matchup. I like Tannehill more than I probably should. It’s debatable as to whether he improved this season. His QBR (ESPN’s quarterback rating) was lower in 2013 than 2012, and he threw more interceptions, but, otherwise, his stats were better across the board. He’s also 25 years old.
Roethlisberger is six years older, but has a track record of success. 2013 was arguably his second best season as a starter, even with the loss of Mike Wallace and a less than impressive running attack.
I go with Roethlisberger’s accomplishments (and the handful of years he has left) over Tannehill’s potential, which I’ve written before I think is only marginal (15th-20th best QB in the NFL).
#3 Andy Dalton (Cin)
#6 Jake Locker (Ten)
Locker’s completion percentage finally eclipsed 60% this season, in limited time (he started only 7 games). Locker’s complete inability to stay healthy is the biggest red flag here.
Dalton has proven so far to be a good October quarterback. He’s never won a playoff game. He’s never played well in a playoff game. But he gets his team to the playoffs.
#2 Tom Brady (NE)
#7 Blaine Gabbert (Jax)
“Hi, Welcome to the Mid-Atlantic Bias Restaurant. We have two specials tonight. One is a seared leg of lamb with a house made chimichurri, served with a parsnip puree and braised local greens. Our other special is a can of 3 Diamonds Tuna Fish accompanied by a can of Hormel chili. We will not provide you with a can opener. Shall I give you some time to look over the menu while I get some drinks started?”
Scott Zolak Region
#1 Peyton Manning (Den)
#8 Robert Griffin III (Was)
Probably the most fascinating and difficult first round matchup. Manning will be 38 when the 2014 season starts and might not actually play another game of football, depending on his neck’s usefulness.
Robert Griffin III will be 24 when the 2014 season starts and might not actually play another game of football like we expected him to, depending on his knees’ (I’m not even sure if that plural possessive works there) usefulness.
RGIII also brings with him questions about his diva-ness. Trust me, I listen to local sports talk radio. Peyton Manning doesn’t have any of those distractions. That said, if I have to invest in one of them for my future, I’m reluctantly taking RGIII because I might not get a future with Peyton Manning.
#4 Nick Foles (Phi)
#5 Geno Smith (NYJ)
This is neither fascinating or difficult. Foles was excellent in Philadelphia this season. Geno Smith was wildly inconsistent.
Also, all season, people asked, “Who saw this coming from Foles?” I did. At the end of my 2012 mock draft, I listed players who were projected to be later round picks who I thought would be successful in the NFL. Foles was my QB. TY Hilton was my WR. And Duke Ihenacho was my defensive player. All are starters in the NFL now and even though you might not know Ihenacho, he’s an integral member of the Broncos secondary. (In the interest of fairness, Baylor’s Terrance Ganaway was my running back choice. He was drafted in the sixth round and never played a down in the NFL. He recently retired.)
But 3 out of 4 isn’t bad. Seriously, someone hire me to work as a low level scout in their front office. I HAVE A BLOG!!!!
#3 Andrew Luck (Ind)
#6 Eli Manning (NYG)
Maybe you debate this matchup on Week 1 of the 2013 season. You don’t debate it now. It’s Luck. By a mile.
#2 Drew Brees (NO)
#7 Brandon Weeden (Cle)
You don’t debate this matchup on any week of the 2013 season. You don’t debate it now. You never bring it up again. It’s Brees. By a hundred million bajillion infinity miles.
Brandon Weeden might be the worse quarterback I’ve ever seen.
Damon Huard Region
#1 Alex Smith (KC)
#8 Mike Glennon (TB)
I was frankly surprised to see Mike Glennon have success in the NFL. Yes, he has the measurables. But I was never a fan of his in college and didn’t think he’d be an accurate passer in the NFL. I was wrong. He completed nearly 60% of his passes and put up a respectable (for a rookie on a terrible team) 19:9 TD/INT ratio.
I like him more than Alex Smith in this scenario because I like a fresh, seeded rye bread over a slice of enriched white bread. Alex Smith is always going to be a game manager. I think Glennon can be more than that. And yes, I’m shocked.
#4 Aaron Rodgers (GB)
#5 Phillip Rivers (SD)
The Screaming Father (can we please make that Rivers’ nickname?) had a wonderful 2013 campaign. I had written that I thought he was done and he proved me wrong. He was not done. He formed a great connection with rookie Keenan Allen and led an average Chargers team, with a rookie head coach, to the Divisional Round of the AFC playoffs.
However, Aaron Rodgers woke up today and he was still Aaron Rodgers.
#3 Joe Flacco (Bal)
#6 EJ Manuel (Buf)
Manuel was not dreadful as a rookie and he wasn’t nearly as inconsistent as Geno Smith, but he was not very good, either. 11 TDs and 9 INTs in 10 games is not very good. Or just plain good. And as I wrote in my 2013 NFL Mock Draft, I don’t expect Manuel to be a long-term option as a starter. Which is a shame, because he strikes me as a nice enough guy. And I like nice guys.
Joe Flacco is the definition of “average quarterback” despite his enormous paycheck. I’ve started to think of Flacco as the slightly richer man’s Andy Dalton. I’m not sure who I’m insulting or complimenting there. That said, Flacco and his Super Bowl ring advance.
#2 Colin Kaepernick (SF)
#7 Matt Ryan (Atl)
Kaepernick took a step back in 2013 and Ryan played without any help on the offensive side of the ball, so this is a really tough matchup.
As I wrote last year, Ryan has reached his ceiling in my mind. And Kaepernick still hasn’t. I think Kaepernick can be the same guy against the other 30 teams as he is against the Green Bay Packers. I’m not as bullish on him this time around because he was inconsistent and looked kind of like the tall, more athletic version of Alex Smith at times, but his potential is so much more than that. A tough exit for a very good quarterback in Matt Ryan.
Stoney Case Region
#1 Cam Newton (Car)
#8 Matt McGloin (Oak)
I don’t even know how Matt McGloin became an NFL starter. This league is so confusing.
#4 Tony Romo (Dal)
#5 Matthew Stafford (Det)
I hate to do this because I think Romo is a Top 10 quarterback in the NFL, but Stafford is 8 years younger than him (at only 25, amazingly). Stafford looked like a man lost at times this season, but I just can’t overlook his youth and the production he’s already created in his young career.
#3 Jay Cutler (Chi)
#6 Sam Bradford (Stl)
I’m going with Jay Cutler here. I don’t like it. I wanted Sam Bradford to be a gunslinging 5,000 yard machine in the NFL, not because I loved Sam Bradford, but because he should be that guy. Instead, he’s going to be Matt Hasselbeck. Cutler is going to be Jay Cutler. There’s no one else like him. Thank God.
#2 Carson Palmer (Ari)
#7 Matt Cassel (Min)
This is a really tough choice because it’s such an awful one. On the one hand, Matt Cassel is a really great backup quarterback who can give you something when you need him to come off the bench. On the other hand, Carson Palmer is 34 years old, but I often mistake him for being 44 years old. Palmer also threw 22 interceptions in 2013, which is an insane number.
But, alas, he’s the winner here because he’s an actual starting quarterback and not just a guy who wins a starting job by default over Samantha Ponder’s husband and Greg Schiano’s mortal enemy.
ROUND 2
Steve Bono Region
#1 Russell Wilson
#5 Ben Roethlisberger
Every year when it comes down to Roethlisberger, I mention the fact that he was twice accused of sexual assault and once nearly died whilst riding his motorcycle like an idiot.
Now, I don’t spend any time with Russell Wilson (though I will if you’d like to Russ. DM me). But Russell Wilson is probably not going to be accused of sexual assault twice and probably isn’t going to crash his motorcycle. I don’t even know that he has a motorcycle.
All of this is to say that, on the field, I think an argument can be made for Large Ben. It’s hard to argue against two Super Bowls. It’s hard to argue against a guy who hasn’t had a season QB rating below 90 since 2008.
It’s even harder to argue against a guy who is 6 years younger, has brought his team to at least the Divisional Round in his first two seasons, had a rating over 100 in both seasons, and is so easily marketable because of his looks, charisma, and general perceived nature. That stuff matters. That’s the stuff of winners.
#3 Andy Dalton
#2 Tom Brady
There might come a day in a few years when this will require more than a passing thought, but that day is not today. Nor is it tomorrow.
Scott Zolak Region
#8 Robert Griffin III
#4 Nick Foles
I think Nick Foles is the clear choice here. The one thing that RGIII had on Peyton Manning was his age. Manning is only really going to give you one or two more seasons. Maybe. Foles is 24, though and is coming off of a season where he looked every bit the part of “Starting NFL Quarterback.”
Meanwhile, Robert Griffin III is coming off a season in which he looked like a broken man. He has youth on his side, sure. But I’m going to place my chips on the healthy guy who exceeded expectations and still has room to develop.
#3 Andrew Luck
#2 Drew Brees
Easily the best matchup of this round. Luck is the winner because of youth and room to grow. Bear in mind, before Reggie Wayne got hurt, Luck had 10 TD and 3 INT. After losing Wayne, and with no real running game, Luck still put up very good numbers. People will remember the interceptions in Foxborough. I’ll remember that he’s 10 years younger than Brees, who is, of course, very good.
But as I’ve said before, Luck’s ceiling is near limitless. Brees’ ceiling is likely behind him at this point.
Damon Huard Region
#8 Mike Glennon
#4 Aaron Rodgers
This is precisely the point where I stop praising Mike Glennon.
#3 Joe Flacco
#2 Colin Kaepernick
Kaepernick wins this Super Bowl 47 rematch.
He has the size of Flacco, with as strong of an arm, and acres and acres more mobility (mobility now being measured in acres). Kaepernick’s “step back” in 2013 was still statistically better than Flacco’s regular 2013, which was terrible (22 INTs to 19 TDs).
Stoney Case Region
#1 Cam Newton
#5 Matthew Stafford
A really tough matchup here. Age isn’t a determining factor. Both have shown weaknesses. Both have shown great strengths.
What gives Cam Newton the edge to me is the extra dimensions: his size and running ability. Also, his ceiling. I think Matthew Stafford is essentially there. He’s a mistake-prone Drew Brees. Cam Newton’s ceiling, still, I don’t believe, exists. Cam could be the transformational quarterback that I expect Kaepernick to be. It’s been three years now and we’re starting to see small steps that show Newton can be a better manager of the game, while still possessing that wild card in his back pocket (his ability to make game changing plays). Newton is not going to ever pass for 5,000 yards. But I think what Newton “can be” is more valuable than the gunslinger that Stafford is.
#3 Jay Cutler
#2 Carson Palmer
Jay Cutler.
ROUND 3
Steve Bono Region
Russell Wilson
Tom Brady
There were moments this season, even when you take into account that he was throwing to guys you’ve never heard of, where Tom Brady looked like he was getting older. There were rough games against the Jets (twice), Cincinnati, Buffalo, and Miami. There’s something to be said about New England’s bizarre move to a power running team late in the season. Brady is 36.
Wilson has yet to enter the prime of his career. Sure he was better as a rookie, but he’s still only 25 and has the ability and potential to give a franchise 10 more years of dynamic, high-level play. He wins.
Scott Zolak Region
Nick Foles
Andrew Luck
This is kind of like the Mike Glennon thing where I just pat Nick Foles on the back, tell him he “done good,” and ask him to run on home.
Damon Huard Region
Aaron Rodgers
Colin Kaepernick
Last year’s final becomes a regional final in 2013. Rodgers won last year because I didn’t feel like I was losing anything dynamic with Rodgers and he’s only 4 years older than Kaepernick. That remains true today. Rodgers would have put up another 4,000 yard season if not for his collarbone injury. He just turned 30. That’s probably 6-8 more years of high-level play if we compare him to his peers (Manning, Brady, Brees). He advances to the final four again.
Had Kaepernick grown a bit this year (or played like he does against Rodgers more often than when the Packers were in town) he would have won. But we didn’t see that development.
Stoney Case Region
Cam Newton
Jay Cutler
That Jay Cutler got to the final 8 when Peyton Manning and Drew Brees didn’t is just evidence of how the seeding can be kind of screwy.
Cutler is not a bad quarterback. He’s not a great quarterback. He is, and always will be, Jay Cutler. And if you think I should elaborate more, well, I DOOOOOOOOOONNNNN’T CAAAAAAAAAARRRRRE.
FINAL FOUR
Russell Wilson
Cam Newton
Wilson is marginally (six months) older. So that doesn’t matter.
I’m going to venture into territory I don’t typically like. It means I’ll have to put on my “old white guy newspaper columnist” hat.
Cam Newton as “team leader” is not yet something I’m comfortable with. No one likes losing in the National Football League. But to see Cam Newton sitting on the sidelines with his head down and a towel over him..well, when was the last time you saw Brady, Manning, or Brees act like that?
Wilson might not have Cam’s size, but he has a very similar level of dynamism to his game and a very strong arm for such a small quarterback. He’s the guy here.
Andrew Luck
Aaron Rodgers
Andrew Luck is going to be Aaron Rodgers some day. I think that’s his ceiling and that’s a ceiling that will take him to the Hall of Fame, if his health stays intact. He’s built similarly. He can run, and not just “when needed to.” He has everything you want in a quarterback. And he’s six years younger than Rodgers.
But, again, I come back to the same thing I did with Kaepernick and (spoiler) the same thing I’ll come back to with Wilson: Rodgers is only 30. He’s still in his prime. And he’s still going to perform at a high level for years to come (injuries aside). And he’s been durable, aside from the collarbone thing which is not something that is going to be a recurring issue, like a knee injury (or multiple). It’s Rodgers.
CHAMPIONSHIP
Russell Wilson
Aaron Rodgers
Congrats to your 4-time winner, Aaron Rodgers.
Next year might be the year though. I expect a big advancement from Wilson, Kaepernick, and Luck. And Newton will continue to tweak his game. Plus we’ll have the arrivals of Teddy Bridgewater, Johnny Manziel, Blake Bortles, and Derek Carr to weed out some of the uncertainty in places like Jacksonville, Houston, Cleveland, Minnesota, Oakland, Tennessee…God, for a quarterback league, there are some bad QBs right now.
Disagree with any of this. Tell me on twitter (@midatlanticbias) or in the comments section. Unless you’re lobbying for Brandon Weeden. Keep those thoughts to yourself.