Biggest Offseason Acquisition: Michael Morse

Potential Fatal Flaw: Being not good enough to compete in their division

Ceiling: Third place in the AL West

Floor: Fourth place in the AL West

Overall: The future is bright in Seattle. There are a number of top and mid-tier prospects, from high-ceiling (pitcher Taijuan Walker) to easily projectable (catcher Mike Zunino) who will be arriving in the next two years and could very well form the core of the next Washington Nationals, so to speak.

Great teams are built on pitching. For all the excitement the Colorado Rockies generated in the mid-90s, because of their run-scoring ability, remind me how many World Series titles they won. The answer is zero.

Seattle is building a team that will be built on pitching, led by Felix Hernandez, who they signed to an extension this offseason through the 2019 season. If we’re talking about a rotation with Hernandez, Walker, Danny Hultzen, and James Paxton (if he develops a useful changeup), I’m on board.

The 2013 Seattle Mariners have improved to some extent, but I think much of that improvement talk is exaggerated a bit. Seattle is always going to have trouble scoring runs at Safeco Field. The park was last in runs scored in 2012, second to last in homers, and last in hits. Much of that has to do with how bad Seattle’s offense was. But even in their historic 116-win 2001 season, Safeco was still second to last in runs scored. The park is too expansive to build a team around offense.

And so while the offense is improved on paper with the additions of Michael Morse and Kendrys Morales, I don’t expect Morse’s power numbers to sustain at the level they were in the previous two seasons in DC and Morales is a regressed player since his horrific leg injury. The lineup is improved, but it’s like trading-in your 2004 Mitsubishi Galant for a 2006 Mitsubishi Galant in 2013. You might think you look cooler in the later model Galant, but it’s still a seven-year-old Mitsubishi.

Seattle’s rotation features King Felix at the top and a cast of characters behind him. There’s Joe Saunders, who remains an employed Major League pitcher, despite not posting a WHIP below 1.30 since 2008 and striking out only 5 batters per 9 innings in his career (as a sidebar, I’d really like to have a son who I turn into a soft-tossing lefty. That’s where the money is at).

There’s also Erasmo Ramirez, who looked like a useful pitcher in 2012, Blake Beavan, who exists, and Hisashi Iwakuma, who is 32 years old, but has enough quality stuff to eat some innings and keep Seattle in some games this year.

Basically, you just read over 400 words for me to get to this: The Seattle Mariners will finish in fourth in the AL West this year. They won’t be exciting. They might not even be watchable. But they’re improving the right way.


Predicted Finish: 71-91

Biggest Offseason Acquisition: All of the Uptons.

Potential Fatal Flaw: Third base. Rotational depth. I’m nitpicking.

Ceiling: World Series champion.

Floor: .500 baseball team.

Overall: To be very clear, right off the bat, I don’t think they come even close to their floor.

You don’t just go out and acquire two-time All-Stars just entering their prime. At least, you shouldn’t if the other 29 GMs are doing their jobs well.

But that’s what Atlanta did. I talked about the Upton trade in my Arizona Diamondbacks preview. Arizona gave up on a 25 year old All-Star because they thought he looked lazy. Simple as that. With every passing day, that trade sounds more and more preposterous. There’s a lot to be said about the “lazy” tag in baseball. It’s almost always used to refer to black players (Justin and his brother BJ, most vocally). There exists a notion that if you’re supremely talented, like Justin and Bossman Junior, you should also play the game with the reckless abandon of Eric Byrnes. That notion is absolutely stupid. In professional football, supremely talented quarterbacks are taught to slide and run out of bounds to avoid injury. In baseball, we’ve come to expect our stars to be covered in dirt by 1:08 p.m.

Arizona’s short-sightedness was Atlanta’s huge gain in what was a transformative offseason in the Dirty South. Earlier in the offseason, the Braves signed BJ Upton to be their long-term centerfielder, likely unaware that they’d be pairing him with his younger brother. Combined with Jason Heyward, you’ll be hard-pressed to find a better outfield in the National League. And I say that with the utmost reverence and respect for the team located in the city that I live in. And for the team that employs Mike Trout.

Atlanta’s hole offensively is in the infield. Freddie Freeman is a sure thing. Not a great thing. But a really quality bat. At short, Atlanta fans are in for a treat as they’ll get to watch Andrelton Simmons everyday (you know, the Atlanta fans who actually show up to the park). The Dutch shortstop might not be the next coming of Nomar Garciaparra circa this at the plate, but in the field, there’s no one better in baseball. Simmons gets to everything and makes every throw. He’s a joy to watch. And then, there’s Dan Uggla who will drive you crazy with his 4-56 slumps, but will win you back when he looks like the second coming of Honus Wagner for two weeks. He is 33 and his power has certainly dipped (and he’s an atrocious fielder), but you could do a lot worse than Dan Uggla, at least offensively, at second. Trust me, lots of teams are trying to.

No, the hole is at third where Chipper Jones no longer resides. In his place, Chris Johnson, who is a terrible baseball player, and Juan Francisco, will try to platoon (Johnson v. lefties, Francisco v. righties). Juan Francisco is an abysmal hitter against lefties, but Chris Johnson is frankly not much better with a career .372 slugging pct. against left-handed pitchers and a sub-.300 on-base pct. Will it kill Atlanta to have an easy out every time through the lineup? Probably not. But when injuries add up (and they do over the course of 162 games), it’s sure nice to not have to give up 2 outs every time through the batting order. Or 3.

If Atlanta’s not going to win the NL pennant, I don’t think Chris Francisco or Juan Johnson will be the reason. It will be their starting pitching. The bullpen is obscenely good, so that will help. But I have my doubts when it comes to Paul Maholm, Mike Minor, and Julio Teheran, who, despite the hype, has never looked impressive in any of his 200 spot starts. And yes, I realize that he’s only 22 and it’s only 4 spot starts. Point being, if we’re going to compare the Nationals’ rotation to Atlanta’s, I like Washington’s more. You know what you’re going to get (barring injury) from all of Washington’s starters, save probably for Ross Detwiler, who could certainly regress some. In Atlanta, the surest thing is probably 37 year old Tim Hudson. Hudson is a great number 3 starter at this point in his career. But if we’re comparing staff aces, I’ll take Stephen Strasburg, thank you very much. And if you think that Kris Medlen is going to have a 1.57 ERA and a K/BB ratio over 5 again, I also have a lovely beachfront home in Sioux City with your name on it.

Ultimately, I think Atlanta gets to the NLCS and faces the Nationals. And ultimately, I think Washington’s starting pitching, 1-4, with a guy like Detwiler coming out of the pen, gets the job done.

That said, the NL East race, regardless of the fact that they’ll both make the playoffs, will be thrilling to watch. Two years ago, we were wondering who was going to challenge Philadelphia for division superiority. Now, I’m wondering how many years we’ll get of Atlanta and Washington slugging it out 18 times per year for division dominance.

Predicted Finish: 95-67

Biggest Offseason Acquisition: Somehow not applicable.

Potential Fatal Flaw: Let’s just start with the pitching.

Ceiling: 4th place in the NL West

Floor: 5th place in the NL West

Overall: In 2007, the Colorado Rockies advanced to the World Series. It appeared to be the start of a long period of great success.

The Rockies have made the playoffs once since that season, losing in the NLDS in 2009 to the Phillies. Jim Tracy won the “Manager of the Year” award that season, which I add only to cite an example of how hilarious manager/coach of the year awards are.

That 2009 season was the ceiling for this era of the Colorado Rockies. Since that season, the team has been in a never-ending state of rebuilding. In 2011, they traded ace pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez to the Cleveland Indians. Jimenez was 27 at the time and coming off a career year that saw him finish third in Cy Young voting with an ERA + (a means of measuring park-affected pitching) of 161 (trust me, that’s quite good. David Price’s ERA + last season was 149. He won the AL Cy Young.).

The point here is that the Colorado Rockies took a 27 year old pitcher with great stuff, coming off a career year, and traded him mid-season. Now, some (mostly idiots) would argue that they gave up on him at just the right time because Jimenez flamed out in Cleveland and doesn’t appear like he’ll ever re-establish himself as an elite pitcher. There are too many variables to draw that hypothesis though. AL vs. NL. Team defense. Organizational tweaks to mechanics and the like. I could go on.

The (real) point here is that the Colorado Rockies are not a well run franchise. They’ve turned years of futility into absolutely squat through the draft. Their first round picks are a who’s who of first round busts, since Troy Tulowitzki in 2005: Gregory Reynolds, Casey Weathers, Christian Friedrich, Tyler Matzek, Tim Wheeler, Peter Tago, Kyle Parker, Tyler Anderson, David Dahl. All but two of them (Matzek and Tago) were college players. None of them have been even remotely useful Major Leaguers. In fact, just for fun, here are just a few of the players drafted after Gregory Reynolds in 2006 (who they took with the second overall pick): Evan Longoria, Brandon Morrow, Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum, Max Scherzer, and Ian Kennedy.

Trades haven’t helped the Rockies much either. That Jimenez trade? It netted them Drew Pomeranz, Matt McBride, and Alex White. White doesn’t even play for the Rockies anymore. McBride has 81 plate appearances in his career and a robust (-1.1) career WAR. Pomeranz is in the running for their number five spot in the rotation.

It’s really hard to rebuild when you aren’t good at evaluating players. Colorado should be forever thankful for Troy Tulowitzki. Tulo signed a long-term extension with the Rockies a few years ago that will keep him in Denver until 2020.  At the very least, he gives them a building block to constantly pile heaps of garbage around.

This really is the same team from last year. They made no minor tweaks to what was a terrible team in 2012, save for bringing in the completely inexperienced (no, really, he’s never managed a team. Ever) Walt Weiss to pirate the ship. If Spring Training means anything (it doesn’t) you can anticipate lots of bunting. And losses. They can’t pitch and outside of Tulowitzki, Dexter Fowler, and Carlos Gonzalez (the latter in home games only because, splits) they won’t wow you with offense like the vintage Colorado Rockies.

This is a franchise with bigger concerns than succeeding in 2013. That’s not going to happen. I just wonder when they’ll be able to compete at all. Right now, I can’t see that far into the future.

Predicted Finish: 64-98

Biggest Offseason Acquisition: Tom Gorzelanny. By default.

Potential Fatal Flaw: Just a slight lack of pitching skill. Or, you know, total.

Ceiling: They make a run at an NL Wild Card before ultimately falling short.

Floor: They fall short by late June.

Overall: The Brewers are a tale of two teams.

Offensively, the Brewers are good (#analysis). Much of that is attributed to the presence of Biogenesis Client Ryan Braun, who, if he wasn’t so terrible defensively, you could argue as being the best player in the NL. But Braun is a black hole in left. Or a worm hole. Or a sink hole. Whatever the hole is where a player is not good defensively.

Braun’s supporting cast is very much the same as last year. Rickie Weeks is going to hit between .190 and .230, he’ll hit 20 homers, and he’ll have two stints on the DL. Aramis Ramirez is going to Aramis Ramirez. He’ll probably spend some time on the DL too. As will Corey Hart.

A player to watch, for what it’s worth, is former Auburn standout Hunter Morris, who I think will eventually be the first baseman this season. Morris took a huge step forward at AA Huntsville last season, with a .357 on-base pct. and 28 homers (to go along with 40 doubles). Morris could be a big boost to a team that will need all the help its offense can give it. Because…

Their pitching is awful! Yovani Gallardo is a potential all-star, but after him, it gets dicey. Marco Estrada (at the age of 28 last season) put together a solid campaign, seeing his career WHIP plummet from where it was coming into the season. Estrada isn’t necessarily a power arm and I have my doubts that last year’s season is sustainable. He’s the number 2 starter.

Wily Peralta made his Major League debut last season (5 total starts) and was fine. His career minor league numbers don’t lend me to believe that he’s going to miss enough bats (or rather, keep enough guys off base) that he’ll be a long term fixture in the rotation.

At this point, I’ve written too many words about a team that isn’t really going anyway. Milwaukee’s farm system is fairly depleted. And outside of Ryan Braun, who could be suspended for PEDs at any moment, and Yovani Gallardo, they’re sort of a sloppy mess. They’d need everyone to stay healthy and max out to make the playoffs. I’m betting “no.”

Predicted Finish: 70-92

BIggest Offseason Acquisition: Denard Span.

Potential Fatal Flaw: Not applicable.

Ceiling: Runaway World Series champion.

Floor: National League Wild Card.

Overall: This is not a homer writing this. This is person with some modicum of baseball knowledge telling you that this should be the favorite to win the World Series.

The perceived “hole” in the Washington Nationals is that they don’t have a true lefty bullpen specialist, as though those are hard to find at the trade deadline. Look, there is no hole. You can pick out Danny Espinosa, but for the defense that he provides at second, I’ll take the between 15 and 20 home runs, thank you. Would I like to see him get on-base about 33% of the time? Yes, that would be lovely. Do I expect Ian Desmond to continue where he left off last season? No. But let’s be honest, even if he takes a step back from last year’s final line, he’s still a top 5 shortstop in the NL and, frankly, baseball.

If you want to talk about a lineup that has everything, it’s the Nationals. Speed at the top with Denard Span. On-base ability with Werth in the two hole. Bryce Harper’s power in the 3 spot. Ryan Zimmerman’s all-around approach batting cleanup. Adam LaRoche’s power in the 5 spot. And then rounding out the order, an All-Star shortstop, a second baseman with 20 homer ability, and a platoon of Kurt Suzuki and Wilson Ramos behind the plate. I mean, the Nats even have the best backup catcher in baseball, and it doesn’t matter who the backup is.

Oh, and then there’s the pitching. You know about that. It’s the same as last year, but with Dan Haren instead of Edwin Jackson. Dan Haren is their number 5 starter. And they added Rafael Soriano (needlessly, in my opinion) to the backend of the bullpen, just for good measure.

The 2012 Washington Nationals brought me such great joy. I spent a lot of money watching them play last year. Easily into the many hundreds of dollars. And it was worth every penny. Worth every 103 degree summer day. Worth every rainy Saturday. Worth every long line at Shake Shack (not true…I get to the park about 2 hours early to watch batting practice and not wait in line for Shake Shack. Like a boss).

Being in Richmond, Virginia for the one week that the Nats were in the playoffs was awful. I had tickets for the Jayson Werth walk-off homer game (Game 4) that I sold. I still have not watched that home run. Not being there hurt me emotionally. It frankly hurt more than turning on Game 5, with the Nats fully in control, as I did, and watching the collapse.

Scribes will posit that the collapse will have a carryover effect on the 2013 Nationals. Drew Storen will go the way of Brad Lidge. Or something. Bryce Harper will taste the sophomore slump, unlike Mike Trout. Or something. Stephen Strasburg won’t know how to pitch late into the season because of last year’s limit. And on and on and on. I won’t buy the “carryover” narrative.

This team is going to bring a championship to Washington, DC in 2013. And I will be there when they do.

Predicted Finish: 101-61

Biggest Offseason Acquisition: Edwin Jackson. A proven innings eater on a team that needs some innings eaten.

Potential Fatal Flaw:  You are reading the Chicago Cubs preview.

Ceiling: They hover around .500. Everyone in Chicago gets excited by late April. They finish with 77 wins.

Floor: Last place in the NL Central. A reminder that the Houston Astros are no longer in this division, so that means slightly less than it had in years prior.

Overall: The 2013 Chicago Cubs are much closer to their floor than they are their ceiling. But things are likely on the up-and-up.

Signing Edwin Jackson will not make the Cubbies a contender in the NL Central, but it will give them a stable guy to throw out there every fifth day. Jackson is far from an All-Star. He will have 3-6 fabulous starts this season, 3-6 clunkers, and the rest will be okay. But he’ll throw 200+ innings. So there’s that.

The Cubs will need all the rotational help they can get at the start of the season, as they’ll be without Matt Garza (strained lat muscle) and Scott Baker (Tommy John recovery). Baker is a nice pick-up for Chicago. I’ve long been a big fan of Baker’s. He walks very few hitters (ignore the 2010 outlier season) and while he’s not exactly Justin Verlander, he’s also not quite Freddy Garcia, in terms of “stuff.”

Offensively, the Cubs didn’t make a lot of offseason alterations. Anthony Rizzo remains their best hitter (please take your Starlin Castro arguments elsewhere, thanks). Alfonso Soriano remains their left fielder. Other than Nate Schierholtz in right field (and try not to get too excited about him) this is the same team that finished 14th in the NL in runs scored and dead last in on-base percentage.

Like I said to begin this section, the 2013 Chicago Cubs aren’t going to end the curse of the “being the Chicago Cubs.” They’re just not a good baseball team. And frankly, there’s not a lot to get jazzed about this season. But they’re on the right track. They’ve drafted well (Albert Amora) and have done well in the international market (Jorge Soler). They’re on the come-up. It just might be an extended journey. Which is good because Cubs fans are nothing if not patient.

Predicted Finish: 64-98

Biggest Offseason Acquisition: The 2012 Miami Marlins. And RA Dickey.

Potential Fatal Flaw: Essentially being the 2012 Miami Marlins

Ceiling: World Series champions

Floor: .500 baseball team

Overall: Anything other than a World Series victory will be considered a failure for the Toronto Blue Jays.

Not since the Florida Marlins became the Miami Marlins all the way back in the previous offseason has a team so made over their roster.

That did not go so well for the Marlins and so they packed up and moved to Canada.

Young teams have the built-in luxury of, well, being young. When you’re young, expectations are tempered. The Blue Jays don’t have that luxury. They’re made up of mostly veteran players. There will not be any room for failure.

Toronto’s biggest upgrade is in the pitching department where they go from a 2012 opening day rotation of: Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, Henderson Alvarez, Kyle Drabek, and Brett Cecil to a 2013 opening day rotation of: RA Dickey, Brandon Morrow, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, and Ricky Romero. Are there question marks? Absolutely. Josh Johnson is always going to be a question mark because of his health. And Ricky Romero is a big question mark as well. If his 2013 is anything like his 2012, the Blue Jays won’t make the playoffs. Likewise if Josh Johnson misses time due to injury, the Blue Jays are in trouble. The depth beyond the starting five is limited.

Offensively, Toronto should be at the top of the league. There’s speed with Jose Reyes and Colby Rasmus. There’s power with Edwin Encarnacion and of course Jose Bautista. Add to that Melky Cabrera’s apparent new found ability to get on base and Brett Lawrie’s speed and defense and you’ve got a very good baseball team. On paper.

Do I think the expectations on the Blue Jays are fair? Absolutely. You don’t go out and acquire a new team full of All-Stars and Cy Young winner (yes, that’s meant to be singular) and expect to just be happy with a .500 season. But there are a lot of question marks and a lot of things have to go right that you wouldn’t necessarily want to bet your children’s college savings on. Like Josh Johnson’s arm staying intact.

I think in an AL East that has regressed mightily, the Blue Jays will win the division. But it probably won’t be enough to get them to the ultimate goal, unless all of the stars align perfectly. Which you’ve only got a 1-in-30 chance of happening.

Predicted Finish: 91-71

There is no big offseason acquisition.

Everything is a fatal flaw.

The home came without ceilings.

The floors are very deep.

The Houston Astros are, on paper, the worst team I have ever seen in my years of watching baseball.

The 2003 Detroit Tigers are the reference point for the 2013 Houston Astros. That team finished the regular season with 43 wins. I believe that this Astros team is worse than that.

It’s hard to start anywhere with Houston. The most positive thing is that in these years of abject futility, they have developed a pretty darn good farm system. With the first pick in last June’s draft they took Carlos Correa, a highly skilled shortstop from Puerto Rico. They’ll have the top pick again this year and will probably look to bolster their organizational pitching with a future starter (perhaps Stanford senior Mark Appel). There’s more in the system too. George Springer. Delino DeShields Jr. Jonathan Singleton.  But none of them are likely to get any playing time this season. That’s what makes these Astros so bad. They’re awful with no immediate hope. Usually, fans can rally around seeing a future star in a really down year, like the 2010 Washington Nationals with Stephen Strasburg. Or the Devil Rays with guys like BJ Upton back when they were still devilish bad.

Houston doesn’t have that luxury this year.

Lets start in the outfield. Projected starters: Justin Maxwell (failed Nationals prospect from a few years back….304 OBP last year with Houston), Fernando Martinez (failed Mets prospect from a few years back……300 OBP last year with Houston), and JD Martinez (serviceable fourth outfielder on some teams…..311 OBP last year with Houston). JD Martinez is one of the Astros’ two best players.

In the infield, it’s Jose Altuve (5’5” second baseman and de facto Houston All-Star last year despite a .340 OBP with 7 HR and a slugging pct. under .400) and some other guys. Those guys are Brett Wallace, Tyler Greene, and Matt Dominguez. You’re forgiven for being a little confused here.

In the rotation, the bright spot is Phillip Humber who threw the flukiest perfect game in Major League history last season. He’s joined by some other guys, including Jordan Lyles, who I’ll likely write about later this season when I put together my “Irrational Love” team of guys I like for no explainable reason.

And if all of this wasn’t enough to sell out Minute Maid Park, the Astros are moving to the AL West, where they’ll get to play 18 games each against the Rangers, Angels, Athletics, and improving Mariners  At the very least, that’s probably 2 games (minimum) against Felix Hernandez. And they’ll get to play the Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Tigers, Rays, etc. 6 times each.

But hey, their new (old) logo is pretty cool. As is their new manager, Bo Porter. Bo comes from the Nationals where he was the third base coach under Davey Johnson. I like Bo. I’ll be rooting for Bo. But I have a sneaking suspicion that Bo is about to know futility. Perhaps of the historic kind.

Predicted Finish: 41-121

Biggest Offseason Acquisition: Michael Bourn. Though, flip a coin. It might be Trevor Bauer. Or Terry Francona.

Potential Fatal Flaw: Complete and utter lack of pitching depth.

Ceiling: AL Central champion.

Floor: A pretty high draft pick in 2014.

Overall: The Indians went from being managed by Manny Acta, very easily one of the more inept in-game managers to Terry Francona, two-time World Series champion, despite having to manage the personalities of Curt Schilling, Manny Ramirez, Kevin Millar, Pedro Martinez, and Derek Lowe at the same time. Probably explains the baldness.

Cleveland had the most fascinating offseason. They did what teams like Baltimore and Pittsburgh should have done: signed players. Teams like Baltimore and Pittsburgh can’t argue that players don’t want to sign with them when Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher go out and sign with the Cleveland Indians. Cleveland wasn’t complacent and I think it will really aid them.

At every position where there’s a new starter this year, Cleveland improved. Nick Swisher slides into first base. If you find yourself chuckling “heh…Nick Swisher…that guy’s no good,” his average season from 2009-2012 saw him doing this: .267/.367/.482, 26 HR. Offensively, he’s been worth about 3 wins per season. And he’s consistent. Remarkably so. He’s an upgrade over the possibly deceased Travis Hafner (checking……nope. He’s still alive).

Mark Reynolds is a wholly incompetent fielder, but he hits home runs. He gets to be the DH here.

Cleveland took the declining and injury-prone Shin Soo-Choo and turned him into a 22 year old potential star in Trevor Bauer and a very good defensive outfielder (and very frustrating hitter) in Drew Stubbs. Pair all these guys with incumbents like Carlos Santana, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Jason Kipnis and you’ve got a good offense right? That’s what I thought.

Then, out of nowhere, the Indians sign Michael Bourn to a four-year deal, giving them the American League’s best defensive outfield.

(By the way, if you find yourself wondering why I care so much about outfield defense, remind yourself of my blog when Delmon Young is trying to chase down a ball in the gap at Citizens Bank Park that will inevitably be a leadoff triple.)

That’s the good stuff….

The bad stuff is in the rotation. Cleveland needs one of their starters to take a big step forward if they’re going to contend in the Central. That’s a lot of reliance on guys like Justin Masterson, Brett Myers (who beat his wife in Boston once and is a terrible human being for it), and Ubaldo Jimenez.

And so that’s really it for Cleveland. A lot of words to get to the conclusion that they’ll only go as far as their pitching takes them. If the Indians pitchers, including their bullpen, have a season like the Orioles did last year, Cleveland could win the division. I think they’ll get close.

Predicted Finish: 84-78

Biggest Offseason Acquisition: Not applicable.

Potential Fatal Flaw: The expectations from a fluke 2012 filling everyone’s heads. And their pitching staff.

Ceiling: 2012 wasn’t a fluke and they earn an American League Wild Card berth.

Floor: They won’t be the worst team in baseball. But they will be the worst team in the AL East.

Overall: Maybe I’m being unfair to the 2012 Orioles. They did win a lot of games and did come close to making the ALCS.

Or maybe I’m being as fair as I should be. Maybe they won an unsustainable number of close games and their bullpen pitched way above realistic expectations and the stars aligned and all of that.

I’m leaning toward the second paragraph.

The reason why the Orioles do not have an applicable answer for “biggest offseason acquisition” is because they didn’t actually acquire anything of any consequence in the offseason. Which is a huge problem if you ask me.

Look, you don’t often hear people dole out the advice, “Complacency gets you places!” right? I’ve never been told that I’ll accomplish my career goals by just merely existing. That works for baseball too.

The 2012 Baltimore Orioles were just not a great baseball team on paper. They performed well-above expectations. They would say, “well not ours. We expected to be a playoff team.” That’s fine. That’s their job. But it’s also a General Manager’s job to find the flaws in his team and try to fix them. Like, say, starting pitching.

Look, the reinvented Jason Hammel is a fine pitcher. But he is not a staff ace. At least not for a team that thinks of itself, as the Orioles must, as a “contender.” Baltimore’s rotation confounds me in a lot of ways because it is made up primarily of the Orioles’ own failed prospects. Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta, Zach Britton, and Chris Tillman were all once going to be the saviors of the franchise. All of them suffered through injuries and all of them, save for Tillman, are very low-upside pieces at this juncture.

It’s not all gloom for the Orioles though. The offense is good. In the National League, it would be one of the better offenses. In the American League, it’s just good. Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, Matt Wieters, and phenom third baseman (but should be shortstop) Manny Machado form a really nice, relatively young, core. The other pieces around them are mostly complementary (JJ Hardy, Nolan Reimold…should he ever spend an entire year in a Major League lineup) but they’re good enough to get the job done and at least keep the Orioles relevant. I just wonder if the Orioles’ expectations at this point have moved past just “being relevant.”

Predicted Finish: 77-85