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New York Yankees Preview

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Biggest Offseason Acquisition: Brennan Boesch


Potential Fatal Flaw: All of the injuries they’ve already piled up


Ceiling: .500 baseball

Floor: Last in the AL East

Overall: It’s perhaps fitting that I’m writing this post on a day where I’ve spent my time in bed, in the bathroom, and at the doctor’s office. Because the current New York Yankees are strikingly similar to my day. Mostly the bathroom part.

The Yankees offseason was spent not spending any money on high-priced free agents or trading for the poor teams’ impending free agents. In other words, it was the most un-New York Yankees offseason in recent years.

The New York Yankees are old. Or aging. The plus-side for Yankees fans is that the minor league system is very good at the top with Gary Sanchez and Mason Williams. The down-side is that neither Sanchez or Williams will see the Majors for another two years.

The Yankees Opening Day lineup is going to be a bit of a mess. Mark Teixeira, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, and Curtis Granderson will all start the year on the DL. That leaves Juan Rivera, Kevin Youkilis, Vernon Wells, and Eduardo Nunez to start alongside Brett Gardner, Ichiro, Francisco Cervelli, Travis Hafner, and Robinson Cano.

You’ll notice that Brennan Boesch was not included despite being the Yankees biggest offseason acquisition. Baseball being what it is, Vernon Wells, the Yankees most recent acquisition, will likely get the Opening Day start over Boesch. Boesch is as streaky a hitter as you’ll find and he’s coming off of a disastrous season in Detroit where he put up a .659 OPS. HIs 2011, though, was much better, with a .799 OPS.

It’s at this point that I realize that I just wrote a paragraph about Brennan Boesch in a New York Yankees preview.

In most cases, you could argue that the pitching might be able to sustain the club during the offense’s healing process, but I just don’t see it. CC Sabathia has made only one Spring Training start so far and might not be ready for Opening Day. That leaves Hiroki Kuroda, 52-year old Andy Petitte, and Phil Hughes. Kuroda is a good pitcher. Because he pitched in New York, and wasn’t a disaster, everyone talked about a 16-11 pitcher with a 1.16 WHIP like he was the second coming of Whitey Ford. Kuroda is a good pitcher. But he’s not the type of pitcher who is going to carry a team.

I’ve talked a lot about how bad I think the AL East is. I think the New York Yankees might be the worst team in a batch of regressed teams (outside of Toronto). It’s possible that New York never gets to full strength this year. I think we’re about to witness the end of the Yankees era of success.

Predicted Finish: 71-91

New York Mets Preview

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BIggest Offseason Acquisition: Shaun Marcum


Potential Fatal Flaw: Being the Mets


Ceiling: 4th place in the NL East

Floor: Second worst team in baseball

Overall: If you came here looking for an in-depth preview of the New York Mets, I apologize. Truthfully, as I’ve gone through this random selection of teams, I’ve put off writing the Mets preview because it didn’t seem like a fun exercise.

I personally want the Mets to be good. Some of my favorite baseball memories are driving to Queens from Massachusetts to see the Mets at Shea Stadium. I loved the mid-2000 Mets. They had my favorite player, Carlos Beltran, my favorite pitcher, Pedro Martinez, and a group of players I really enjoyed watching (Carlos Delgado, Jose Reyes, David Wright). I loved how awful Shea Stadium was. I loved the red apple in the magician’s hat. I loved the enthusiasm. I loved Mr. Met. I loved Cow Bell Man.

All of that waned in 2006 when Carlos Beltran stood at home plate in Game 7 against the Cardinals and watched Adam Wainwright’s curveball as it crossed perfectly across home plate. I went back to Shea only once after that. Once in a while, when I need a royal blue undershirt, I’ll put on my Jose Reyes jersey-t. But that’s the only way you’d ever know that there was a 3 year period in my life where I rooted for the New York Mets. Well, that and the framed panoramic photo of Shea Stadium I have.

In 2008, I moved to Washington, DC and, soon after, started rooting for the Nationals. I think of the Mets as an ex-girlfriend now. She wasn’t right for me. I was young. She had peaked and was about to get involved with some shady characters. But we parted amicably and I really want her to be happy, even though I know I’m better off with my current wife. And so it bothers me a little bit to have to write about how bad the Mets are. Because they’re very bad.

David Wright signed a long-term extension this offseason for some reason. He’ll likely be a Met for his entire career. A free agent Wright could have gone basically anywhere, but he only wanted to be in Queens. That’s admirable. It’s probably not smart though.

New York has done very little to build around Wright during this period of futility. There’s likely 2013 #5 starter Matt Harvey, who should be a long-term top-of-the-rotation fixture. And there’s top prospect Zack Wheeler, who should be in the Opening Day rotation next year. And the Mets did acquire oft-injured catcher Travis d’Arnaud in the R.A. Dickey trade. Past that, there’s no one in the system who could make a big impact until 2015 at the earliest.

So David Wright will go to battle with Colin Cowgill, Lucas Duda, Marlon Byrd, Ike Davis, Ruben Tejada, Daniel Murphy, and John Buck this year.

In the rotation, there’s really nothing to hang your hat on. Johan Santana is so done that the Mets would be better off bringing El Duque back. Jon Niese would be a solid number 4 on most teams. Instead, he’ll take the ball on Opening Day this year. Shaun Marcum is a decent pickup, only because he’s an upgrade over Jeremy Hefner.

I won’t continue to kick the Mets when they’re down. And I won’t jump on the bandwagon when they’re good again, whenever that is. I just want the Mets and their new partner to be happy together. 2013 just won’t be their year.

Predicted Finish: 60-102

Kansas City Royals Preview

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Biggest Offseason Acquisition: James Shields


Potential Fatal Flaw: Starting pitching

Ceiling: AL Wild Card

Floor: 4th in the AL Central

Overall: I’ve become famous, in my own mind, for overselling the Kansas City Royals. Every year seems like it’s going to be “the year” that the fans of Kansas City get to watch their team finally put it all together and make a serious run at the playoffs.

And every year, I’m wrong.

The Royals have done a terrific job of building their team through the draft. Unfortunately, that hasn’t paid dividends. Instead, the Royals have been fairly unlucky. Injuries have side-tracked top pitching prospects Danny Duffy and Mike Montgomery in recent years. That left Kansas City with a few holes to fill in the rotation, especially at the top, where they have been “led” in recent years by Bruce Chen and Jeff Francis.

So Kansas City went out and took a huge risk this offseason. It was an out-of-character move for an organization that had played it safe for years, sitting on their very good farm system, waiting for those players to develop. The Royals traded their top prospect, Wil Myers and upper echelon pitching prospect Jake Odorizzi to the Tampa Bay Rays for James Shields. Trading two prospects of Myers’ and Odorizzi’s caliber is a huge gamble when you’re getting back a pitcher, like Shields, who is perceived to be a better pitcher than he actually is. Shields is a very durable starter. He hasn’t started fewer than 30 games since 2006. And he’s developed into a legitimate strikeout pitcher. But the other metrics tell a different story. His park-adjusted ERA (ERA+) is 107 for his career (think of 100 as an average mark and 110 being the line of demarcation for a “good” pitcher). He gives up a lot of hits, which contributes to the career WHIP of 1.22. Neither of those numbers are “ace-like.” They’re good, certainly, but they’re not really the numbers you want from a 31 year old pitcher who you had to give up two high-level prospects to get.

The other offseason pickup for Kansas City is Ervin Santana. Ervin Santana is another perception pitcher. I think when people hear the name “Ervin Santana” they think he’s a good pitcher because he’s a recognizable name. But outside of his 2008 season, Santana has been a league-average, or worse,pitcher. Last year, Santana was awful in Anaheim. He gave up a career-high 39 homers. He only struck out 133 batters (in 30 starts), and he racked up a 1.27 WHIP. He’s being slotted into the #2 spot in the Kansas City rotation and the expectations, I think , are that he’ll pitch like a number two starter. Which could be troublesome.

The rest of the rotation (Bruce Chen, Jeremy Guthrie, and Wade Davis) is not worth much paragraph space. So I won’t waste it.

Offensively is where I think the Royals can really excel. Yes, they’re giving Jeff Francoeur (truly one of the worst players in baseball) 600 plate appearances this season. That’s going to hurt. But elsewhere, the Royals are exciting and young. And good.

Eric Hosmer was an exceptional hitter last season. Unfortunately, the season I’m talking about is the 2012 spring training season. During the regular season, he was awful. His swing was different. His approach was poor, and his numbers reflected that. He’s back to tearing up Cactus League pitching this spring training, but the swing looks better. I really think he’s going to join forces with Billy Butler, Mike Moustakas, Alex Gordon, and Salvador Perez to form the most exciting young lineup in the American League. Royals games are going to be exciting in 2013. And they’ll need the offense, and especially the 23 year old Hosmer, to carry the team. Because the pitching won’t.

The AL Central is a tough division, maybe the best in the American League. Cleveland is much better and the AL Champion Detroit Tigers are improved too. Kansas City probably slots into the 3-spot in the division. But if the offense steps up its game and James Shields pitches like he did in 2011, Kansas City could surprise a lot of people and earn a spot in the playoffs. Don’t say I didn’t warn you. Repeatedly.

Predicted Finish: 82-80

Cincinnati Reds Preview

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Biggest Offseason Acquisition: Shin-Soo Choo


Potential Fatal Flaw: Being managed by Dusty Baker

Ceiling: NL Central champion

Floor: Taking a vacation in Early October

Overall: Cincinnati was involved in one of the more peculiar offseason trades. They traded a shortstop prospect to Arizona, Arizona traded their top prospect Cleveland, and Cleveland traded an aging corner outfielder to Cincinnati. Cleveland was the clear winner in that trade. Arizona gave up a lot of upside for a guy who will probably be their shortstop for a long time, but won’t win many Silver Sluggers. Cleveland gave up a 30 year old outfielder for an elite pitching prospect, and Cincinnati traded a solid defensive shortstop for a guy they’re going to try to play out of position (it’s worth mentioning that Cincinnati also gave up Drew Stubbs in the trade. No wait. It’s not.).

The plus side is that if Shin-Soo Choo doesn’t work out in center (he won’t) there’s Chris Heisey. Heisey is a capable enough player who could probably have moved into centerfield on his own. That would move Choo to left, taking over for Ryan Ludwick, who had his first productive season in 2012 since 2008. I don’t expect that to continue. You know, because of logic.

It’s an error on my part to not mention Joey Votto until now. There’s no player I’d rather have at the plate for one at-bat than Votto. And yes, I’m very fond of walks, because there’s nothing wrong with a good walk. Votto walked 94 times last year and struck out 85 times. He was on-base 47% of the time. Votto, for whatever reason, gets some criticism (probably not the correct term. Detractors is more appropriate) because he isn’t a true power hitting first baseman. That’s, of course, incredibly stupid. Give me a team full of guys who get on-base 47% of the time and I’ll probably win a championship or two.

On the mound, Cincinnati is led by Johnny Cueto, who, despite not being a true strikeout pitcher, has developed into a true #1 starter. The high WHIPs of his early career appear to be a thing of the past, as he’s done a great job of throwing more strikes.

For Cincinnati, the biggest storyline this offseason wasn’t the trade for Choo, it was who was going to be their fifth starter. The Reds signed highly coveted Cuban fireballer Aroldis Chapman in 2010. Most people assumed they would develop him into a starter. Chapman has made 137 appearances in his career and exactly 0 starts. This week, the Reds announced that he would close this season, giving the fifth spot in the rotation to Mike Leake. This is a mistake, of course. For as good as Chapman has been as a closer, his value would be that much higher as a 25-30 start pitcher. Of course, he wouldn’t continue throwing 103 MPH fastballs. He’d probably have to work in the 97 MPH range. That speed is still more than viable and with Chapman’s slider as an out pitch, there’s just not a lot of sense in having him throw 65 innings.

The move of Chapman to the bullpen relates to the fatal flaw, as well as the wrap-up of this section. The Reds are managed by Dusty Baker. Baker is historically rough, as a manager, on starting pitchers. There’s not a lot of rotational depth for Cincinnati. Frankly, the rotation isn’t great after Cueto and Mat Latos. An injury to one starter puts the Reds in a real bind. The offense is certainly good enough to contend, which they should do. I just don’t know that there’s enough rotational strength to get anywhere beyond a division crown.

Predicted Finish: 86-76

Chicago White Sox Preview

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Biggest Offseason Acquisition: Well, no one died in the offseason. So that’s something.


Potential Fatal Flaw: Starting pitching. For one.

Ceiling: .500 baseball

Floor: Awful baseball team.

Overall: Maybe I’m being overly critical of a team that won 85 games last year and didn’t suffer any serious losses this offseason (AJ Pierzynski left, but I said “serious.”).

The pitching is the thing that concerns me the most with the White Sox. They’re Chris Sale (and his ridiculously dangerous delivery), soft-tossing Jake Peavy, and a lot of question marks. John Danks has looked terrible in Spring Training and in the bulk of his recent professional life. Gavin Floyd is, and always will be, just Gavin Floyd, and then Jose Quintana and Hector Santiago are fighting it out to see who can be the more “5th starter” 5th starter.

The White Sox locked up Chris Sale this offseason, keeping him on the South Side until 2018. I’ve made fun of his delivery before, so forgive me, but this is what it looks like. It’s just a mess. It’s frightening to look at. It’s not the kind of delivery that I’d want to lock up long-term.

Offensively, Chicago is led by 37-year-old Paul Konerko. Konerko has made the All-Star team three years running. And while he’s continued to produce, that production has declined each year, going from 4 wins above replacement in 2010, to 2 ½ in 2011, to 1 ½ last year. That’s not a good sign for a team that will need all the help they can get offensively.

Adam Dunn hit 41 home runs last year. You don’t get that from many hitters in today’s game. But Dunn was worth just below one win above replacement last year. He provides absolutely nothing defensively, because he’s a designated hitter. He struck out a career-high 222 times in 2012. He only got on-base ⅓ of the time. It was statistically his worst season (outside of 2011, which was historically bad for any player) since 2006. Oh, he’s 33.

The Chicago White Sox are, in short, old. And where they’re not old (Gordon Beckham), they’re just terrible. They’re an organization with one of the worst farm systems in baseball and a Major League roster littered with guys hovering around, or well past, 30. There are few teams in worse long-term shape than the White Sox.

I don’t see their immediate future looking so rosy either. The Indians, Tigers, and Royals all improved to varying degrees this offseason. Minnesota remained Minnesota and, really, so did the White Sox. There’s not enough starting pitching and there are too many hitters who are in their career declines for optimism to reign supreme. There’s a line of demarcation in the AL Central and the White Sox are firmly below it.

Predicted Finish: 74-88

Los Angeles Angels Preview

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Biggest Offseason Acquisition: Josh Hamilton


Potential Fatal Flaw: Old age and the injuries that come with it (coincidentally, the name of my memoir)

Ceiling: World Series champion

Floor: Missing the playoffs. Again.

Overall: Mike Trout, Mike Trout, Mike Trout, Mike Trout, Mike Trout.

Okay, now that I have that out of MIKE TROUT!

Okay, deep breath.

Mike Trout was the American League MVP last year. The historical record might say otherwise, but he was. It’s been a long, long time since baseball has seen a 5-tool player this good. There are a handful of true five-toolers in baseball right now. Not all of their tools are exceptional. Mike Trout is the exception. You want power? 30 homers last year. Speed? 49 stolen bases. Contact? .326 batting average. Defense? Don’t let the Gold Glove loss fool you. Trout was the best centerfielder in baseball last year (he contributed, according to Baseball-Reference, 2 wins defensively). The fact that he’s moving to left field this year is more about lowering his injury risk (and how good Peter Bourjos is in center). Watching Mike Trout is a joy. If you know me, you know that I have heaped tremendous praise on Trout. None of it is done hyperbolically. I was very young before Barry Bonds discovered flaxseed oil. I didn’t really see the exceptional 5-tool Bonds. When I watch Trout, I imagine that I’m watching that Barry Bonds. Or Willie Mays. Bury your twitter cynicism or your blind allegiance to some other logo or player and just watch Mike Trout for what he is: the best all-around player in baseball.

Of course, the LA Angels have 24 other players on their projected Opening Day roster. And while none are Mike Trout, some of them are historically very good.That starts with Albert Pujols. That said, Pujols has regressed each of the previous two seasons and I doubt that he’s really going to get back to where he was in 2010 because 33 years-olds don’t really do that. Sure, Pujols has played injured during the previous two seasons, but lots of 33 year-olds play injured. Because they’re 33 and have been playing professional sports for the better part of 15 years. Can you still expect Pujols to hit 30 homers and bat over .290? Sure, I don’t think that’s an unrealistic expectation for this season. Going forward though, LA really has to regret offering a 10 year deal to someone entering his post-prime.

The offseason addition of Josh Hamilton looks much better in theory than it does in actuality. Hamilton’s body has begun to fail him fairly regularly. After playing in almost the entire 2008 season, Hamilton has missed significant time in each of the previous four seasons. LA signed him to a contract this offseason that will pay him $32 million in 2017, when he’ll be 36 years old. He went from an 8 ½ win player in 2010 to a 3 ½ win player in each of the previous two seasons. In other words, regression knows no name like Josh Hamilton.

The rest of the offense is mostly built around filler (save for Mark Trumbo, who at the very least, will hit a lot of home runs, though probably not get on-base as much as you’d like). Guys like Erick Aybar and Alberto Callaspo. Nothing to get jazzed about.

Starting pitching is an area of real concern. Jered Weaver has performed very well over the past two seasons, despite low strikeout rights (relatively speaking for an “ace”) and fairly high flyball rates. That’s not necessarily a good combination for success, but you can probably expect, even with some regression, a really solid season from Weaver.

Behind him is CJ Wilson, who was a free agent prize last go-round. Wilson was disappointing in 2012. He returned to previous form, posting a 1.34 WHIP and seeing his strikeout totals dip from their 2011 high-water mark.

It gets real dicey behind Wilson, though, with Jason Vargas (go on and take a look at his home/road splits with Seattle), Tommy Hanson (whose arm could very well just fall off (I kid you not, I wrote this before he left a Spring Training start today with triceps tightness)), and Joe Blanton, who has been nothing but replacement level since 2009.

The Angels enter 2013 with really high hopes, because on paper, they look great. But the names Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols don’t produce like they used to. And the starting pitching is just not there to contend. The Angels have perhaps the furthest to go to reach their ceiling of any Major League team. Absolutely every realistic element has to go right. It’s too bad Mike Trout can’t make a spot start or two, while playing both corner outfield positions. If anyone can do it, Trout can.

Predicted Finish: 83-79

Miami Marlins Preview

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Biggest Offseason Acquisition: ROTFL


Potential Fatal Flaw: Jeffrey Loria

Ceiling: Fourth in the NL East

Floor: Last in the NL East

Overall: Jeffrey Loria is one of the worst people in sports. For those of you who don’t know (and yet somehow read this blog), Loria is the owner of the Marlins.

If you were living under a rock, or on a vision quest in the deserts of Mali, you likely missed that the Miami Marlins decided that their previous offseason efforts to sign every player wasn’t the right direction, so they traded the bulk of their roster to Toronto. No team, not even the Florida Marlins, had really ever done this. And of course, because it has to, it gets worse.

Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria used lies to get the people of Miami to pay for a new, fancy, kind of weird, stadium. He told the people of South Florida that the team was going to compete. Free agents would be signed. Prospects would be paid. Success would be had.

One subpar season later, Loria decided to just blow the whole thing up and start from scratch. Now the people in South Florida who paid for a world-class stadium for what was supposed to be a world-class team get to watch Donovan Solano and Juan Pierre play every day.

The trade with Toronto netted the Marlins some relatively high-level prospects. Adeiny Hechavarria will likely be their starting second baseman at some point this season. Jake Marisnick struggled mightily in AA last year, but the Marlins are hopeful that he can join with current top prospect Christian Yelich and current best player Giancarlo Stanton sooner rather than later. The Marlins also acquired Henderson Alvarez, who should be able to slot immediately into the 3 or 4 slot in their rotation.

That the Marlins acquired good players isn’t really the point though because they gave up good players. They gave up Jose Reyes because of a down year. They gave up Josh Johnson because of a down year. They gave up Mark Buehrle because of a down year. Basically, they gave up. Which was the opposite of what they said would happen.

Jeffrey Loria cannot be trusted. Who is to say that he won’t decide to deal Giancarlo Stanton this season (for Stanton’s sake, I hope he does)?

As this is the 2013 preview, it’s worth talking at least briefly about the on-field product. That product will not be very good. It’ll be Giancarlo Stanton and the other 24 guys. There’s nothing sure in the rotation. The “ace” is probably Ricky Nolasco, who has been riding a good 2008 season all the way to continued employment. Nolasco has been awful over the previous four seasons, being worth just under 1 win above replacement per season. He’s the ace. The awful, awful ace.

Offensively, there just aren’t enough tools around Stanton. This is a team that thinks it’s realistic to start Justin Ruggiano every day in center field, alongside Juan Pierre in left. Beyond doing the people of Miami a disservice, they’re also doing Stanton a disservice.

It’s a lineup full of light-hitting slappers, save for the game’s best raw power hitter in Stanton. There’s really no, “well, if this guy stays healthy (Logan Morrison) I think they can contend” stuff.  None of that matters. The Marlins are awful. And it starts right at the top.

Predicted Finish: 65-97

San Diego Padres Preview

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(TWO EDITOR NOTES: 1.) Rymer Liriano is an outfielder. I’m not sure why I thought he was a shortstop. 2.) Rymer Liriano is out for the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. This concludes your Rymer Liriano-related updates. Thanks to Matt for the corrections.)


Biggest Offseason Acquisition: Freddy Garcia. This is 2001, right?


Potential Fatal Flaw: I’m having trouble narrowing it down to just one.


Ceiling: .500 baseball team

Floor: Top 5 2014 draft pick

Overall: A few weeks ago, I told a colleague that I thought the Padres would win the NL West. I don’t actually believe that will happen.

I do, though, think the Padres are not only heading in the right direction, but that they’ll be competitive in 2013.

During the offseason, the Padres moved the fences in at (lovely) Petco Park. On the surface, this seems like a smart move for a team that has struggled to hit home runs since Petco opened. The problem with bringing in the fences though is that you compact the outfield. When you make your outfield smaller, there’s less room for outfielders to have to cover. And when there’s less room for outfielders to have to cover, fewers balls fall for doubles and triples. That might be okay if your lineup is full of power hitters. San Diego’s is not.

Beyond the fences moving in, not much has changed in San Diego. They acquired Tyson Ross from the Athletics, but it’s worth noting that Ross was one of the worst pitchers (perhaps the worst) in the Majors last season, racking up an ERA + of 61 and being worth (-1) wins. And it’s not like he was pitching at Coors Field circa 1996. And, well, that’s pretty much it.  Tyson Ross is nothing to hang your SD hat on.

If I had created a “key player” tab, San Diego’s would have been Carlos Quentin. A healthy Quentin takes some of the pressure off the really good Chase Headley, who is coming off of a career year (MAB NOTE: Headley will likely miss the first month of the season with a finger injury).  Quentin was very good last year, posting an .877 OPS. Unfortunately, he only played in 86 games. The most Quentin has ever played in a season is 131 games. As a 162 game player, he could easily be a 30 HR, 100 RBI. San Diego needs Quentin to play about 130 games if they’re going to be a .500 team. Because…

Their pitching is not very good. They’re led at the top by Clayton Richard and Edinson Volquez. The rest is up in the air. Anthony Bass, Andrew Cashner, Freddy Garcia, Tyson Ross, Jason Marquis, and Eric Stults will all probably pitch in the rotation between April and September. Outside of Cashner, the upside isn’t exactly, well, up.

The Padres, like a lot of teams who have struggled recently, are on the way up. Jedd Gyorko will probably be the everyday second baseman by the All-Star break. Likewise, Rymer Liriano will probably be playing shortstop after September 1. Both are the anchors of San Diego’s future and neither are terribly far away (Gyorko is probably ready now, at the age of 24). News that Casey Kelly could need Tommy John surgery tempers some of the excitement about the future of the Padres, but make no mistake, my irrational prediction about San Diego winning the NL West wasn’t terribly far off. I think we start to see a taste of a successful future this season.

Predicted Finish: 79-83

Detroit Tigers Preview

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Biggest Offseason Acquisition: Torii Hunter

Potential Fatal Flaw: The bullpen

Ceiling: World Series champion

Floor: AL Wild Card

Overall: The biggest difference between the AL Champion 2012 Detroit Tigers and the preseason 2013 Detroit Tigers is that Delmon Young has been replaced by Torii Hunter. It’s the difference between an Applebee’s 2-for-$8 cut of “Angus” steak and a good restaurant’s $28 NY strip. The NY strip isn’t going to be the best thing you’ve ever eaten, but at least it’s not smothered in “garlic ranch mushroom alfredo sauce.” Flavortown.

The 2012 Detroit Tigers weren’t really broken, so there was little need to fix anything and GM Dave Dombrowski didn’t try. Make no mistake, this club is improved by the subtractions of Young and Jose Valverde and the addition of Torii Hunter.

With the Tigers, you have to start at the top. No team has a better batter/pitcher pair than Detroit does with Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander. Every year, they’re both the favorite to win the MVP and Cy Young award. They’re excellent at what they do, even if I resent both (one because he’s a terrible defender and for his previous proclivity to drive drunk and the other because he dates America’s greatest creation, Kate Upton).

The role players and other rotational players are the key in Detroit though. Austin Jackson, who probably exceeds the “role player” tag has developed into a real threat out of the leadoff spot, now that he’s cut back on his strikeouts. It’s essential that he keeps up his on-base ability because there’s frankly not a lot of that in Detroit’s lineup. He’s key to the success of Cabrera and Prince Fielder, and thus, Detroit. Victor Martinez’s health (or lack thereof) is another key to Detroit’s success. Martinez didn’t play one game in 2012. He’s played in over 100 games only three times since 2007. When he’s in the lineup, especially now that he can DH exclusively, he’s one of the league’s most underappreciated hitters. He gets on-base consistently. He’s got pop in his bat. He doesn’t strike out. He’s just kind of wonderful. When healthy.

The overall staff is excellent too, 1-5. Doug Fister is also a really underappreciated pitcher. He doesn’t have Justin Verlander’s stuff. Very few people do. But Fister, like Victor Martinez, does the other important stuff well. His WHIP is always fairly low (career 1.18, not off the charts, but very nice), he doesn’t walk a lot of hitters, doesn’t give up a lot of home runs. He’s just a good pitcher. Then there’s Max Scherzer, who has such electric stuff. I don’t think he’ll ever hit his ceiling, which I would say was probably a top-20 pitcher. He walks too many hitters. But when Scherzer’s on (and he’s on more than he is “off”), he’s a great 3-4 starter.

In the offseason, Detroit signed Anibal Sanchez to a contract that will keep him in the Motor City until 2018. There was some scoffing at the length and money involved in the deal, but Sanchez is a reliable arm. The stuff is different, but he’s like Edwin Jackson. You can plug him in every fifth day, he’ll have a clunker every now and then, he’ll come close to a no-hitter other times, and fill in the middle with reliable starting pitching. You could do a lot worse than Anibal Sanchez as your 4th starter.

The bullpen is the issue in Detroit. Right now, Bruce Rondon is the likely closer. And there’s been a lot of fun poked at Rondon. The funny thing with bullpens though is you really can’t project bullpen success. Guys who have it can lose it like that. And a lot of guys who are perceived to have it (Heath Bell is a great example) get exposed, crash, and burn. Bullpens are tough. So when I hear people say that Detroit is silly for going into the season without a “proven closer,” I laugh. Because, you know what, no one ever knows. Craig Kimbrel went to Wallace State Community College. Now, he’s the best one-inning pitcher in baseball, coming off of probably the greatest relief season ever. And tell me if you “knew” he was going to do this. You never know.

That said, if one thing is going to hold Detroit back from making it to another World Series, the most likely culprit would be their bullpen. But you can say that for a lot of teams. And you never really know until you get into those 5 or 7-game series in October.

Predicted Finish: 92-70

Boston Red Sox Preview

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Biggest Offseason Acquisition: Mike Napoli

Potential Fatal Flaw: Not having enough good players

Ceiling: They make a run at a Wild Card berth

Floor: They make a run at last place in the AL East

Overall: (We’re at the halfway point in the season previews, once this one is done.)

I don’t know what the Red Sox are doing. I’d say they’re rebuilding, but you don’t sign Jonny Gomes to a two-year deal if you’re rebuilding. And you don’t give Shane Victorino a 3-year, $39 million deal if you’re rebuilding. This is not Shane Victorino of the “Flying Hawaiian” variety. This is the Shane Victorino who hit .255/.321/.383 last season (with a .296 on-base pct. against right-handed pitchers). And he’s 32.

The Napoli deal (1 year, up to $13 million with incentives) I do like. That’s the kind of stopgap move you make if you’re flush with cash, but also looking to rebuild. A move to bide time until your farm system is ready (the most likely move is top prospect Xander Bogaerts to third, and current third baseman Will Middlebrooks to first).

Boston’s “big” offseason pitching move was to add Ryan Dempster. I don’t really think he’s going to be a difference maker, especially in a rotation that almost requires John Lackey to be a part of it. And especially moving full time to the American League.

A lot has to go right for the Red Sox to be successful in 2013. In fact, I wonder what the 2013 expectations are for management (the off-the-record expectations, not the “World Series Onward!” Spring Training spin). If they think of themselves as a playoff team, they’ll need Jacoby Ellsbury to play 150 games. They’ll need David Ortiz to hit 30+ homers. They’ll need Jon Lester to put it together. They’ll need Clay Buchholz to lay off the fried chicken (I can’t resist). They’ll need John Lackey to win 15 games.

Can it happen? Boston fans know that ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE. but, heavens, I would not like to take that bet.

I’ve said this previously, but it’s worth reiterating: the AL East is a regressed division. The Yankees, who we’ll get to eventually, are not a playoff team. And I’ve already said that I don’t think the Rays are built to win this year. Toronto is much improved, but there are lots of questions there. And Baltimore is, contrary to what people in Charm City will tell you, not the 1927 New York Yankees.

Ultimately, Boston’s 2012 struggles carry over into 2013. The characters might be different, but the results will be roughly the same. And even if they’re worse,  I don’t think anyone will be calling for Bobby V’s return.

Predicted Finish: 73-89