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2013 NBA Draft Preview

/ Jason / Leave a comment

Last year, I tried something new with my NBA mock draft. That is to say, I didn’t try to do a mock draft. Instead, I did a “Big Board.” As I wrote last year, the NBA Draft is a fluid event. There are lots of trades, so it’s difficult to project who will be available for teams. Last year, I hit on my top 3, for the most part (Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and Rookie of the Year Damian Lillard). I missed on Andre Drummond, Kendall Marshall, and perhaps on John Henson who came on late in the year and looks like he might be a fixture in Milwaukee until his contract expires and he gets to go somewhere that’s not Milwaukee.


Most experts do not like this draft. There is no one in this group who they think easily projects as a future perennial All-Star or Hall of Fame player. No LeBron. No Durant. No Andrew Wiggins. There are a handful of guys who will be good starters for 10 years. Some will be able to win Sixth Man of Defensive Player of the Year awards. Others might win a dunk contest or a three point shootout. Basically, you’ll know some of these names in a decade, but it’s unlikely any of them will be dominating the NBA. That said, Paul Pierce was the 10th pick in his draft and he’s going to the Hall of Fame some day. Certain players, certain TYPES of players, flourish in specific environments. Whomever gets drafted first overall by the Cavs is coming in to a great situation and should be able to excel. On the opposite side of the spectrum, the Charlotte Hornet Bobcats…

Without further ado, my rankings of the lottery players, in my mind, followed by some other list-making. Because, really, I don’t see 30 guys in this draft who are going to be household names in 5 years and I’d like to make this remotely fun to write and read.

1. Victor Oladipo (SG/Indiana): Oladipo’s skill set gives him the best chance of this class to be an All-Star in the NBA. His ability as an on-ball defender should not disappear as he transitions to the NBA. His offensive game is a step behind his defensive game, but he showed vast improvements from his sophomore to junior seasons on that front. He’s already a great slasher. If he can develop a really consistent mid-range shot and improve as a ball handler, he has potential to be a top 5 PG down the line. There’s incredible room to grow with Oladipo. Supremely athletic. Plays hard. A solid building block.

2. Trey Burke (PG/Michigan): I enjoyed watching no player more than Trey Burke during the 2012-13 college basketball season. He lacks the size you’d like from an NBA player. My guess is that with what he did in college, if he were 2 inches taller, he’d be thought of as a top pick (Cleveland will not be drafting a point guard as they have a very good one already in Kyrie Irving). Burke can shoot, defend, and pass. Does he do any of them exceptionally well? Probably not. But he does all of them well. And he also has the leader trait that you want to see from a point guard. Burke showed in the tournament this year that he’s not going to shy away from taking the big shot. He’s a fighter and those are the types of players I think you need to build around in the NBA.

3. Otto Porter (SF/Georgetown): Think of Porter as the small forward version of Burke. He does everything, just nothing exceptionally well. He’ll be a valuable player on the glass considering his size. And you certainly won’t lose anything on the defensive side of the ball where he was dominant in the Big East. He’s not going to shoot the lights out of the gym, certainly. But he’s a really good building block, just without the upside of Oladipo. And as a sidebar, he’s the guy who I think makes the most sense for Cleveland with the top overall pick as they’re weakest at the 3 spot and don’t really have much room in their rotation for Oladipo or Burke.

4. CJ McCollum (PG/Lehigh): McCollum is a slashing point guard, with size, who scored at will as a four-year starter at Lehigh. He missed the latter half of this season with a broken foot, but is healthy now and could slot in, Game 1, as a starter for a number of lottery teams who lack a point guard. He’ll also rebound well for his position. I look at him as a sort of Damian Lillard-light. On a really bad team, he could be their best player. A potential Rookie of the Year.

5. Nerlens Noel (C/Kentucky): Noel would be the consensus number 1 draft pick (though not necessarily my no. 1, as though that means something) if he hadn’t torn his ACL in the middle of Kentucky’s disappointing 2012-13 season. Noel is a defensive force. His offensive game is not very well developed though. He’s a good passer, but his shooting is very poor. He’s a project for whomever drafts him. I think there’s little to no chance that he’s an impact rookie. But down the line, if he can develop some sort of offensive game, he’ll be a very good NBA player.

6. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (SG/Georgia): Caldwell-Pope is the best outside shooter in this draft. He’s also got great size as a 2-guard and is a really solid defender. His mid-range game needs some work. He’s probably not going to become much of a penetration type player either, as his dribbling is not of the And1 Mixtape quality. It’s not really of the New Balance 574 quality either. But he’ll bring a lot of value on both sides of the ball, certainly enough to make up for his deficiencies.

7. Anthony Bennett (PF/UNLV): Bennett would be higher if he was bigger. I’m usually not one to harp on size, but Bennett, at 6’8” is not an NBA power forward. He’s also coming off of rotator cuff surgery. That said, he really scored in the Mountain West. He can shoot it from anywhere on the court, despite his size and frame (he’s, um, thick). He doesn’t look like an NBA-caliber leaper, but he’s very athletic. Bennett is the reverse of Trey Burke. If he were an inch shorter and 35 pounds lighter, he’d project nicely as a 3. As it stands, he’ll have to develop a low-post game to be really successful in the NBA.

8. Ben McLemore (SG/Kansas): If Kansas had missed the 2013 tournament, you might be looking at a much higher draft pick. Instead, Kansas made the tournament. Whether Ben McLemore played is still being determined. McLemore was a potential National Player of the Year candidate during the regular season. But once the tournament came around, he struggled mightily to score, get open, and to be blunt, be useful, to the Jayhawks. That said, as I look at the pool of players in this draft, it’s hard to find one with a better skill set than McLemore’s. He’s an electric scorer with exceptional athleticism and some real defensive prowess. Yes, the psychological factors (whether the pressure leads him to wilt) will have to play into any team’s decision to draft McLemore. But if you chalk his March up to two bad weeks and choose instead to focus on the 4 successful months, you’re getting a steal at the number 8 spot. I’m just not entirely convinced.

9. Shabazz Muhammad (SF/UCLA): Muhammad’s “career” at UCLA was a bizarre one. He came onto campus as the most recognizable freshman in the country and a favorite to be the top pick in this draft. He’s leaving as a mid-to-late first round pick, probably. And yet, he played well at UCLA. Muhammad averaged 18 points and 5 rebounds per game on a dysfunctional UCLA team. Are there flaws in his game? AB-SO-LUTELY. Muhammad has no right hand yet. He’s not interested in passing the basketball. He is not one of the aforementioned potential dunk contest winners (that is to say, he’s not a freak athlete). All of that aside, Muhammad is a scorer. Outside of McCollum, he’s probably the best pure scorer in this draft. He can drive to the basket, he plays hard, and he can defend. He’s a little undersized for his NBA position (small forward), but his ability to slash and the on-ball skills he has will make up for that. He’s kind of a project. He had a few moments where he behaved poorly on the court, most noticeably sulking after a teammate hit a game-winning shot because the teammate didn’t pass to Muhammad. He’ll require some good, patient coaching, but he could be a very valuable player in the league.

10. Jamaal Franklin (SG/San Diego State): Franklin is my first real reach here. Most everyone else you see above will be a lottery pick. Franklin probably won’t. That said, a handful of the guys who will be lottery picks won’t be very good pros. Franklin is a very athletic player with all of the measurables that you want from an NBA 2-guard. He rebounds very well for his position, and while he doesn’t have a great outside shot, he will score by using his speed and vision to drive the ball to the basket.

11. Gorgui Dieng (C/Louisville): One of the knocks I’ve seen on Dieng is that he’s old. He’s 23. For a league obsessed with size, I’m really surprised to see Dieng getting so little love. The player I saw at Louisville was a high impact guy with a developing offensive game who could really control the paint on the defensive end with his shot blocking ability. On top of that, Dieng passes the ball well for his size. He’s never going to develop into Shaq down low, but his improving ability to step out and hit a 13 foot shot makes a player with his “secondary” skill set very intriguing and in normal circumstances, a lottery pick.

12. Tim Hardaway Jr. (SG/Michigan): If I told you there was a 6’6” shooting guard who played at a big time college program and averaged 15 points a game while shooting 37% from 3, you’d assume he’d be held in some sort of regard. Unfortunately for Tim Hardaway Jr., he has his dad’s name. With that comes people’s misguided expectations for how good you’re supposed to be and who you’re supposed to be. Junior is not a point guard. He’s not excellent at handling the basketball. He’s not lightning quick. And he’s not an off-the-charts passer. What he is, is a player who can get his own shot, who can hit his shots from anywhere on the court, and knows how to get to the basket.

13. Michael Carter-Williams (PG/Syracuse): Every year, Syracuse has a player that I just don’t like. For 10 years, it was Eric Devendorf. For 14 years, it was Gerry McNamara. Last season, it was Michael Carter-Williams. The best thing that MCW has going for him is his size. He’s a true point guard, with his passing being his top attribute, playing at 6’6”. He is not a good shooter, however (sub-40% from the field, 29% from 3). Few players become a better outside shooter in the NBA than they were in college, what with the distance being greater. Carter-Williams also turned the ball over 3 ½ times per game during his sophomore year. I look at him and don’t see how he turns himself into an NBA starter at point guard, and yet, I have a hard time finding someone who I like more than him at this point.

14. European Player (PG/SG/SF): European Player is quick, but needs to add some strength and develop a more consistent jump shot. European Player doesn’t have much of a low post game. European Player competes against lesser competition, but brings a high IQ and terrific passing skills. European Player might not play this season, but has some real upside for the team who is willing to take the risk that he won’t pan out.

THE CENTERS:
(The NBA loves size. It’s hard to teach a player to be 7 feet tall. We all get that. But NBA teams fall in love with players who aren’t particularly skilled. There are a bunch of those guys who all project to be first rounders this year. One of them is even projected by some to be the top overall pick. Without further ado, THE CENTERS!

1. Mason Plumlee (Duke): Plumlee has the most offensive skill of all THE CENTERS! He can put the ball on the floor, possesses real athleticism, and improved this season as a rebounder. He will not be a star center in the NBA, but outside of Dieng, he has the best chance of being a contributor.

2. Jeff Withey (Kansas): He was a shot blocking maestro at KU and should still be a good shot blocker in the NBA. His offensive game is not very developed and never will be. But he’s tall and has a track record of success.

3. Alex Len (Maryland): Len may be the first pick in Thursday’s draft. He’s tall. 7’1” even. I look at Len and I see no way in which he fits into today’s NBA. He has no physicality whatsoever. He’s not a great defender. And he’s not a great outside shooter (not that the NBA really favors 7 footers who do that anymore, thankfully). It will be a shame if the Cavs draft Len with the first overall pick because he “fills a need.” Cleveland is one piece and a healthy Kyrie Irving away from being a playoff team in the Eastern Conference. Len is never going to be a useful center to anyone in the NBA…

4. Steven Adams (Pittsburgh): …and yet, he’s not even the worst of the projected first round centers. I’m not going to lie, I’ve seen every one of the above players in this post play a game multiple times. When I looked at other mock drafts and player raters, I didn’t remember ever seeing Steven Adams play. So I looked at some evaluations of him. It was there that I saw the phrase “looks completely lost on offense” (Chad Ford, ESPN). As a freshman at Pittsburgh, he averaged 7 points and 6 rebounds per game. He also shot 44% from the free throw line. He’s projected by some experts to be a lottery pick. I love the NBA!

THE (FOREIGN) CENTERS:
(Because if there’s one thing the NBA loves more than centers, it’s centers from Serbia and Montenegro.)

I have no idea who any of these players are. Their names are Lucas Nogueira (Brazil) and Rudy Gobert (France). I’ve never seen them play. They can’t be as bad as Steven Adams.

THE OTHER GUYS:
(I like them for no other reason than I watched them a lot and they have one or two discernible skills that could make them useful. 3 at every position (except center) who I would happily draft in the second round, if I were an NBA GM instead of whatever it is that I am.)

POINT GUARDS1. Myck Kabongo (Texas): Very fast. Excellent passer. Sat out his sophomore year because the NCAA is a horrible organization only concerned with their own bottom line.
2. Isaiah Canaan (Murray State): An excellent shooter. He’s the poor man’s Damian Lillard.
3. Nate Wolters (South Dakota State): Very good ball handler. Good outside shooter.

SHOOTING GUARDS
1. Ricardo Ledo (Providence): Would be a lottery pick if not for off-the-court issues. May be the best pure scorer in this draft outside of the lottery.
2. Reggie Bullock (North Carolina): Great outside shooter. Not much else.
3. Allen Crabbe (California): Great outside shooter. Bullock just offers better size.

SMALL FORWARDS
1. DeShaun Thomas (Ohio State): Great rebounder as a 3. Shoots well from outside.
2. Andre Roberson (Colorado): Hustle and motor. Rebounds well despite lack of size.
3. Tony Snell (New Mexico): Outside shooting. Could develop into a Bruce Bowen type if he develops defensively.

POWER FORWARDS
(See Below)
3. Trevor Mbakwe (Minnesota): He’ll give an NBA team 12-15 minutes of ferocity every night. Great rebounder, maybe the best in the draft. He’s here because he lacks any semblance of height or offensive skill. He’s the hobo’s Kenneth Faried.

CODY ZELLER v. KELLY OLYNYK
(or, let’s compare the tall white guys)

Both are 7’0”. Neither has the size or game to be an NBA center. Kelly has the greater reach. Cody has a greater wingspan. Cody is the faster guy. He runs the floor like a small forward. And he’s deceptively athletic. Olynyk has a more skilled offensive game thanks to his shooting range. Neither is going to be a good NBA rebounder or shot blocker. The battle here boils down to which guy you think will be the more useful offensive player. And that really boils down to the team they land with. If Cody ends up with a team like Golden State, who likes to run, he’ll find a spot in the rotation. If Kelly lands with a team like Indiana, who plays more of a half court game, he’ll be very useful to them. For the sake of picking one, I’d rather have Cody because of his athletic ability and the room I see for him to develop his skills and size. Olynyk is probably just about as good as he’s going to be right now.

There you have it. The NBA Draft is always on the very short list of my favorite sporting events of the year. As always, thanks for reading. Have an issue? See a mistake? Let me know below or on the social medias (@midatlanticbias).  

That Sound You Hear? Crashing Expectations

/ Jason / Leave a comment

On Friday, April 13, 2012, I turned to Amanda and said to her, “The Nats are going to win the World Series.” At the time, that sounded ridiculous. In fact, Amanda told me to relax, reminding me that it was mid-April in a 162 game season.


Of course, I was wrong. The 2012 Washington Nationals were the best team in baseball. They won the regular season, but were eliminated in the NLDS. But in that moment, coming off of an extra innings win over the Reds (one that featured an Xavier Nady pinch-hit homer), it felt right. There was a magic around that team. I’ve never enjoyed watching a team more in my life and I might never enjoy another.

On May 18, 2013, I turned to Amanda and said to her, “The Nats aren’t going to the playoffs.” At the time, it sounded like an overreaction. Hyperbolic, even. It’s very early. The 2012 San Francisco Giants were 24-21 after their 45th game. They won the World Series. The 2013 Washington Nationals are 23-22 after their 45th game. Time will tell where they end up. But, right now, the feeling isn’t right.

The 2012 Washington Nationals were affected by injuries from the get-go. I’ve written it in this space before, but it bears mentioning that the Nats never got to put their “A” lineup on the field. Not once.

It didn’t matter. The Nats got really good “spot starts” and pinch hits from players like Chad Tracy, Tyler Moore, Steve Lombardozzi, and Roger Bernadina.  When needed, each guy filled in and contributed.

In 2013, that hasn’t happened. None of those four guys has an on-base percentage above .250. They have 2 home runs and 71 strikeouts between them. The guys who were called the “goon squad” in 2012, haven’t deserved a nickname this year. They’ve been failures.

Danny Espinosa has been the face of the Nats failures this season which seems a little unfair because Danny Espinosa was never very good to begin with. That said, he has been, statistically, the worst player in Major League Baseball, at least offensively, this season. And it’s not really close. Espinosa’s OPS+ (100 is average) is 33. It’s really hard to have an OPS+ that low and play nearly everyday.  But, alas, Danny Espinosa is playing nearly every day. And striking out more than once a game.

Can the Nats be fixed? Sure. They need Jayson Werth to come back healthy sooner rather than later. They need to cut ties with Espinosa and take the risk of moving top prospect Anthony Rendon and his glass ankles to second base. They need the bullpen to pitch more like last year’s bullpen. Whether that means DFA’ing a few guys and bringing in new blood remains to be seen. And they need Stephen Strasburg to just relax a little bit. Watching Strasburg pitch sometimes makes me exhausted. And it’s the same thing that it’s always been: high pitch counts, trying to be too perfect, and flying open on his follow through when things aren’t going right. I’ve begun to question Strasburg’s ceiling more this season. The ability is certainly there. But I don’t see that presence, consistently, that I do when I watch Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander pitch. Oh, and if you’re going to use age as a point of measurement, because it feels like Kershaw has been pitching in the Majors for a long time, he’s 4 months older than Strasburg. And miles more developed. But that’s probably another post for a different day.

The Nats are missing a spark. Bryce Harper brought that spark last year and it never really faded. This year’s team never had that. It didn’t feel that way in Spring Training and it certainly doesn’t now. I was confident that this was the best team in baseball when I wrote my season previews, because on paper, they were. But the games aren’t played on paper anymore. They’re played on grass. And right now, that grass doesn’t look particularly green.

2013 NFL Mock Draft

/ Jason / Leave a comment

I have been wrestling over whether I should do an NFL Mock Draft this year. When I see someone like Peter King say that this is most unpredictable draft he’s seen in his long career, I take it seriously. As seriously as someone should take doing a mock draft for their very, very small blog.


There is nothing certain in this draft. There’s a rumor this morning that Rex Ryan told former West Virginia wide receiver Tavon Austin that he “has a plan for him.” That’s probably the clearest thing we know about this draft. And the Jets pick 9th and 13th. So there are at least 8 other teams that could take Austin and ruin the Jets “plan.” Or it could just be a rumor.


There is a complete lack of clarity with the top pick. Weeks ago, most people assumed Texas A&M left tackle Luke Joeckel would go first. This week though, there have been rumors that Kansas City might prefer Central Michigan left tackle Eric Fisher. And that’s the intrigue in this draft: Which left tackle you never realized existed when you were watching college football this year will go first overall.

I can never remember a draft with this much of a talent vacancy at the skill positions. There is no sure-thing quarterback (there isn’t even a good one). There is no sure-thing running back (there are some good ones). And there are no sure-thing wideouts (in fact, good luck finding someone who agrees on who the best receiver is).

So how do you do a mock draft when you’re both not plugged in to what teams are going to do (that’s always the case for me) AND there’s no consensus about who the best players are?

You list each of the teams and take a wild stab at who they’re going to pick, offer no analysis, hope people follow you on twitter (@midatlanticbias) for your real-time thoughts on draft night, and maybe hit one or two picks.

If you’re new to this, I don’t predict trades because, really, how do you do that? This is who I think each team will pick, not who I would pick. Because if I could pick, I’d try to acquire more selections next year.

1. Kansas City Chiefs select Luke Joeckel (OT/Texas A&M)

2. Jacksonville Jaguars select Dion Jordan (DE/Oregon)

3. Oakland Raiders select Sharrif Floyd (DT/Florida)

4. Philadelphia Eagles select Star Lotulelei (DT/Utah)

5. Detroit Lions select Eric Fisher (OT/Central Michigan)

6. Cleveland Browns select Dee Milliner (CB/Alabama)

7. Arizona Cardinals select Lane Johnson (OT/Oklahoma)

8. Buffalo Bills select Ryan Nassib (QB/Syracuse)

9. New York Jets select Jonathan Cooper (OG/North Carolina)

10. Tennessee Titans select Chance Warmack (OG/Alabama)

11. San Diego Chargers select Xavier Rhodes (CB/Florida State)

12. Miami Dolphins select Tavon Austin (WR/West Virginia)

13. New York Jets select Ziggy Ansah (DE/BYU)

14. Carolina Panthers select Barkevious Mingo (DE/OLB/LSU)

15. New Orleans Saints select Desmond Trufant (CB/Washington)

16. St. Louis Rams select DeAndre Hopkins (WR/Clemson)

17. Pittsburgh Steelers select Tyler Eifert (TE/Notre Dame)

18. Dallas Cowboys select DJ Fluker (OT/Alabama)

19. New York Giants select Jarvis Jones (OLB/Georgia)

20. Chicago Bears select Sheldon Richardson (DT/Missouri)

21. Cincinnati Bengals select Giovanni Bernard (RB/North Carolina)

22. St. Louis Rams select Kenny Vaccaro (S/Texas)

23. Minnesota Vikings select DJ Hayden (CB/Houston)

24. Indianapolis Colts select Tank Carradine (DT/Florida State)

25. Minnesota Vikings select Alec Ogletree (LB/Georgia)

26. Green Bay Packers select Alex Okafor (DE/Texas)

27. Houston Texans select Cordarelle Patterson (WR/Tennessee)

28. Denver Broncos select Damontre Moore (DT/Texas A&M)

29. New England Patriots select Quinton Patton (WR/Louisiana Tech)

30. Atlanta Falcons select Bjoern Werner (DE/OLB/Florida State)

31. San Francisco 49ers select Jonathan Cyprien (S/Florida International)

32. Baltimore Ravens select Kevin Minter (LB/LSU)



6 Bold/Random Predictions:

1. The Atlanta Falcons will likely pool a bunch of picks together to move up in the draft to improve their defense with a potential star player.

2. No, I don’t expect Geno Smith or Manti Te’o to be drafted in the first round. And neither should. Alabama exposed Te’o in the National Championship game. Geno Smith threw more short passes in his time at West Virginia than nearly anyone else in football. His high completion percentage reflects that. Smith is not a good downfield passer. And I think NFL teams know that.

3. In five years, none of the quarterbacks drafted this year will be starting in the NFL. None. And if one is, it’ll be Tyler Wilson.

4. The team that drafts Eddie Lacy will have the likely Offensive Rookie of the Year.

5. The team that drafts his Alabama teammate Dee Milliner will have the Defensive Rookie of the Year. And if it is Cleveland, they’ll be tougher to throw on than any team in the AFC.

6. Even though you might not know the players, it’s still going to be a fun night for those of us who love names being read and awkward man hugs.

MLB Preview, In Review

/ Jason / Leave a comment

It’s been a long arduous journey. About 17,000 words over the span of one month on all 30 teams. If you didn’t happen to read all 30, I wanted to offer a handy recap with standings, playoff predictions, and awards lists.


AL East
1. Toronto Blue Jays
2. Baltimore Orioles
3. Tampa Bay Rays
4. Boston Red Sox
5. New York Yankees

AL Central
1. Detroit Tigers
2. Cleveland Indians (WC)
3. Kansas City Royals
4. Chicago White Sox
5. Minnesota Twins

AL West
1. Texas Rangers
2. Los Angeles Angels(WC)
3. Oakland Athletics
4. Seattle Mariners
5. Houston Astros

NL East
1. Washington Nationals
2. Atlanta Braves (WC)
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. Miami Marlins
5. New York Mets

NL Central
1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Cincinnati Reds (WC)
3. Pittsburgh Pirates
4. Milwaukee Brewers
5. Chicago Cubs

NL West
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. San Francisco Giants
3. Arizona Diamondbacks
4. San Diego Padres
5. Colorado Rockies

AL Wild Card:
Los Angeles over Cleveland

NL Wild Card:
Atlanta over Cincinnati

AL Divisional
Detroit over Texas (3-0)
Los Angeles over Toronto (3-0)

NL Divisional
Washington over Los Angeles (3-1)
St. Louis over Atlanta (3-2)

AL Championship
Detroit over Los Angeles (4-1)

NL Championship
Washington over St. Louis (4-3)

World Series
Washington over Detroit (4-1)


AWARDS

AL MVP
1. Miguel Cabrera
2. Mike Trout
3. Jose Reyes

NL MVP
1. Justin Upton
2. Joey Votto
3. Andrew McCutchen

AL Cy Young
1. Justin Verlander
2. Yu Darvish
3. Felix Hernandez
NL Cy Young
1. Clayton Kershaw
2. Mat Latos
3. Cliff Lee

AL Rookie of the Year
1. Chris Archer
2. Jackie Bradley Jr.
3. Brandon Maurer

NL Rookie of the Year
1. Julio Teheran
2. Hyun-Jin Ryu
3. Jedd Gyorko

AL Manager of the Year
1. Terry Francona
2. Ned Yost
3. Jim Leyland

NL Manager of the Year
1. Davey Johnson
2. Mike Matheny
3. Fredi Gonzalez

There are a lot of reason for me to be excited for baseball in 2013. I’ll be visiting Dodger Stadium, barring rain or illness, on Tuesday for the first time. I’ll also plan to head to Bowie, Maryland a few times this season to see top-shelf Orioles prospects Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy. And, sometime this summer, I’ll try to knock another park off the list. Maybe I’ll even see the Indians, Mariners, and Royals and finally see all 30 teams play a game at least once.

But the biggest reason of all is that the Washington Nationals enter this season as the best team, on paper, in baseball. I fully understand that nothing in life, baseball or otherwise, is a guarantee. The 2012 Nationals battled injuries throughout the season. That Nationals never got to put their best lineup on the field. Michael Morse and Ryan Zimmerman started the year hurt, Wilson Ramos tore his ACL, and Jayson Werth broke his wrist. And of course there was the Strasburg shutdown. The Nationals will open play tomorrow at absolute full strength. No injuries. Denard Span, Jayson Werth, Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, Adam LaRoche, Ian Desmond, Danny Espinosa, and Wilson Ramos can have their names written in ink on the lineup card. You were never able to say, last year, that the Nats put their best team on the field.

The road won’t be easy. It will certainly be a slog at times. Even the best teams still lose 60 games during the season. The Nats will be swept once or twice. There should be no panic. This team is built to win. And they will.

Happy Opening Day! Happy Baseball!

Oakland Athletics Preview

/ Jason / Leave a comment

Biggest Offseason Acquisition: John Jaso


Potential Fatal Flaw: Getting too hung up on last year. Also the potential for injuries.


Ceiling: AL Wild Card

Floor: 4th in the AL West

Overall: Last year was a magical one in both cities by the Bay. The one with beautiful ballpark on the west side of the Bay won the World Series while the team on the east side shockingly won the AL West.

The 2012 Oakland Athletics were successful largely because of pitching depth. It certainly wasn’t because of the offense. Only one player who played in more than 100 games had an on-base percentage above .333 (Yoenis Cespedes). And yes, they got part-time contributions from Jonny Gomes, Brandon Moss, and Seth Smith, but make no mistake, this team won with pitching.

Of the 9 players who made at least 6 starts in the rotation, only one (Tyson Ross) had an ERA+ below 103 (Ross’s was an abysmal 61). That said, only one guy (Tommy Milone) made 30 starts. No one threw 200 innings. There was a real similarity between what happened in Oakland and what happened in Baltimore. Deep pitching staffs made up of good, but not great pitchers (certainly all guys with flaws) all coming together at one time to pitch well as an overall unit.

No one in Oakland’s rotation coming into 2013, save for the always injured Brett Anderson, has ace-like stuff. When Anderson is healthy for the 35 minutes per year that he sets aside, he’s a very good pitcher, as evidenced by a career 118 ERA+ (156 in abbreviated time last year). Jarrod Parker may be a recognizable name to fans, as he was a high level prospect for the Diamondbacks, but Parker needs to cut back on his walks (63 of them last year) if he’s going to be a long-term fixture in a Major League rotation. After Anderson and Parker, it’s Milone, AJ Griffin, and Dan Straily. All three pitched beyond reasonable expectation last season. Griffin’s Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) was nearly a full run higher than his actual ERA. Milone’s home/road splits are laughably dramatic, and Straily’s FIP was 2 ½ runs higher than his ERA.

Offensively, Oakland made one nice addition in adding John Jaso behind the plate. Jaso (whose name I will inevitably leave spelled “Jason” here) doesn’t bring a lot of power, but he will get on-base, something the A’s had trouble with in 2012. Outside of him and Cespedes, who I don’t expect much regression from, Oakland is thin. Brandon Moss, for his career, has 4 homers off of left-handed pitchers. Add that to the fact that he brings a career OBP of .317 and it’s reasonable to assume that he probably shouldn’t be a full-time starter. But he is.

Elsewhere, Coco Crisp remains the starting centerfielder, though if we’re going to go with guys who can’t get on base, the A’s would be much better off playing Chris Young everyday, as he at least adds some power to a lineup that, outside of Cespedes and Josh Reddick, doesn’t have much.

If there is one word to describe the 2013 A’s, at least in preview form, it’s regression. Last year was a random year for a number of players (including the now departed Jonny Gomes). Their pitchers will have to be as good, or better, and Brett Anderson will have to make 30 starts (he’s done that once in his career) if the A’s are going to return to the postseason.

I don’t see that happening. It’s not a criticism of the 2012 A’s and their accomplishments. They were a really fun team who used their assets well and may have gotten lucky with a few investments, so to speak. Rarely, if ever, does that happen in consecutive years. Until the offense resembles something close to what I think Billy Beane would like his lineup to look like (power throughout, high OBPs), Oakland is going to struggle to score runs consistently and ultimately, struggle to replicate last year’s success.

Predicted Finish: 75-87

St. Louis Cardinals Preview

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Biggest Offseason Acquisition: Not applicable


Potential Fatal Flaw: Middle infield

Ceiling: World Series champion

Floor: Just missing the playoffs

Overall: Up the middle, with the antichrist Pete Kozma and second baseman Daniel DeScalso, the Cardinals are not very good.

Everywhere else, including on their disabled list and in their minor league system, they are.

The Cardinals are really good. Like any team, they’ll need to have some lucky with injuries, which they’ve yet to have this calendar year. They’ll start the year without the services of third baseman David Freese, shortstop Rafael Furcal, closer Jason Motte, and rotation stalwart Chris Carpenter, whose career is likely over. Even with those losses, the Cardinals are still a formidable bunch.

I might find him to be a really annoying player, but it’s hard to argue against Yadier Molina. He’s probably the game’s best defensive catcher (at least until Christian Bethancourt becomes Atlanta’s full time catcher). Some day, he may become the first manager of an American sports franchise with neck tattoos. That’s something.

While Allen Craig has had a difficult time staying healthy during his playing career, you can’t argue against the results when he has been healthy. His OPS+ in 2011 was 151, while it dropped a bit to a still impressive 137 last season. He hits for power and he doesn’t strike out a lot. That more than makes up for shaky defense.

While losing David Freese’s career .363 on-base percentage for a few weeks will hurt, they’re replacing him with the fairly capable Matt Carpenter (.365 on-base in his rookie season last year).

Jon Jay might have no power in his bat, but he is the ideal leadoff hitter for this lineup, coming off a career year in 2012 that saw him get on-base at a .373 clip. He doesn’t steal a lot of bases, but that’s frankly a good thing with Craig, and Jay’s two outfield partners, Carlos Beltran and Matt Holliday, batting behind him.

It’s worth noting because of the relative fragility of Beltran that the Cardinals have Oscar Tavares at AAA Memphis, waiting in the wings to take over for Beltran if he gets hurt. Tavares’ most common comp is Vladimir Guerrero. He’s rated as a top 5 prospect by a number of publications. And he leads a minor league organization that is regarded by most experts as the best in baseball.

The rotation is solid. There’s not a lot of depth in the event of an injury and while Jake Westbrook isn’t an ideal Major League starter, he’s perfectly fine at the back end of a rotation on a team as good as the Cardinals. Westbrook will pitch alongside Adam Wainwright (recently signed to a long-term extension), Jaime Garcia, Shelby Miller, and Lance Lynn. Is the starting pitching the best in the National League? Certainly not. It’s definitely the weakest link on the team. But I don’t see that becoming a problem.

Really, I don’t see much of any problem with the Cardinals. Even their bullpen is very good with live arms throughout. They didn’t make any real offseason move, because they didn’t have to. With a system this good, feeding a big league club this good, St. Louis is smart to stay pat and save some money. St. Louis’ ceiling is as high as any team’s. If they can recover from their current injuries and stave off too many disabled list trips, they’ll contend with Washington to be the National League’s best team.

Predicted Finish: 94-68

Los Angeles Dodgers Preview

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Biggest Offseason Acquisition: Zack Greinke


Potential Fatal Flaw: Getting a lot of different pieces clicking together

Ceiling: World Series Champion

Floor: Just missing the playoffs

Overall: Money doesn’t buy happiness. You’ve heard it before. I’ve heard it before. Now, I feel pretty confident that I’d be a pretty happy guy if I all of a sudden stumbled upon a few million dollars. I’d do the things I love doing. I would drive around the United States and Canada, eating great food and meeting interesting people. Maybe you like art. You could buy lots of fancy paintings and sculptures. Perhaps you’re a “quality time” person. You could become your town’s Jay Gatsby and hobnob and bandy about.

The point is that in regular life, money can buy a lot of things that can make you happy. That’s not the case in baseball life. Money buys you players. Players only make you happy if they win a World Series. That’s it.

When you spend a lot of money, you demand World Series trophies. You demand happiness. The Los Angeles Dodgers, over the past 9 months have spent a lot of money in search of happiness. It started last year when the Dodgers acquired the Boston Red Sox. They depleted much of their farm system in the process, dealing away high-level pitching prospects Allen Webster and Rubby de la Rosa (as well as Ivan deJesus and Jerry Sands). I don’t think we had ever seen a trade like this, where a team takes on every bad contract from another team. The Dodgers acquired Josh Beckett, Adrian Gonzalez, Nick Punto, and Carl Crawford from the Sox. A few days earlier, they acquired Hanley Ramirez from the Marlins for well-regarded pitching prospect Nathan Eovaldi. Combined, those players the Dodgers acquired will earn about $76 million this season. That’s more than the entire payrolls of the Astros, Marlins, Rays,  Pirates, Athletics, Padres, Rockies, and Twins.

Then, the Dodgers signed Zack Greinke this offseason. Greinke will earn $21 million this season and begin the year as the Dodgers #4 starter. All told, there are 10 players on the Dodgers payroll who will earn $10 million or more this season.

But will they be successful?

Offensively, the Dodgers will begin the year weakened by the World Baseball Classic injury to Hanley Ramirez. He’s replaced in the order by Luis Cruz. Cruz’s double play partner is Mark Ellis. Neither player has a career OPS higher than .725. Ramirez’s career OPS is .866.

Elsewhere, it’s harder to argue against the Dodgers. Adrian Gonzalez is 30 years old. He had the only subpar season of his career last year, splitting time between Boston and LA. I’m wont to believe that he’ll bounce back this year, returning to the National League West, a division he is familiar with after playing in San Diego for five very productive years.

In the outfield, injuries are the concern. If Matt Kemp, Carl Crawford, and Andre Ethier are healthy, they’ll give the Dodgers the NL West’s best outfield, hands down. Kemp is a potential 40/40 player, and personally, a guy who I’ve come around on after disliking him earlier in his career. Crawford was so awful during his one and a half seasons in Boston that you forget how skilled he is and how productive he was in Tampa. And while Ethier is terrible against left-handed pitching, his overall numbers and value are still good enough, when healthy, to make him a slightly above-average everyday starter. Certainly not a bad guy to have as a third outfielder.

Pitching is where the Dodgers could really excel, starting with the excellent Clayton Kershaw. After Kershaw are the question marks of Hyun-Jin Ryu and Josh Beckett. Ryu is a question mark because he’s never pitched in the U.S. Beckett is a question mark because he’s Josh Beckett. Greinke and some combination of Chad Billingsley, Aaron Harang, Chris Capuano, and Ted Lilly will round out the rotation. There’s certainly enough talent there, even if Greinke doesn’t pitch like Cy Young winner Zack Greinke, to be the division’s best staff. Especially with some useful bullpen pieces behind them, led by Kenley Jansen.

The question, to me, isn’t whether the Dodgers will win the division (I think they will), it’s whether they can compete with Atlanta, Washington, Cincinnati and tomorrow’s team in the National League. If everyone is healthy and everyone plays to their actualized ability, I think they can. But I’ve talked about this before. It’s really hard to keep everyone healthy over the course of 162 games. And it’s really hard to expect no one to have a “down year.” The Dodgers are not a team built on depth. It’s hard to be built on depth when you’re paying 10 players over $10 million a year.

This is a playoff team. But the playoffs aren’t the goal in Chavez Ravine. I don’t know that money is going to buy real happiness, at least not in 2013. They might have been better off getting an R/V and driving to the Badlands.

Predicted Finish: 90-72

Philadelphia Phillies Preview

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Biggest Offseason Acquisition: Ben Revere


Potential Fatal Flaw: Long lines for the early bird special in the infield

Ceiling: 3rd in the NL East

Floor: 3rd in the NL East

Overall: If Delmon Young were a good person, or a good player, I’d say that his unavailability at the start of the year would hurt the Phillies, but I actually think it will help them. They’ll start the year with Ben Revere, John Mayberry, and Domonic Brown (who is as bad a fielder as Young for what that’s worth) in the outfield, and one would have to presume that will remain when Young is ready. Brown is long overdue for a real shot at being an everyday player. Though if there’s one impatient, bumbling manager in baseball who’s going to replace a talented, young hitter after an 0-for-4 day, with an old, unskilled white guy (Laynce Nix), it’s Charlie Manuel.

The infield is the weakness here. Save for 2002 (which was 11 years ago), Michael Young has been at or below replacement-level as a fielder. Without the benefit of the the designated hitter, the Phillies will play Young at third base, a position he is supremely unqualified to play. Offensively, Young swings at too many pitches, grounds into too many double plays, and at this point in his career, is merely a singles hitter. Last year his OPS of .682 placed him 128 out of 144 qualified hitters. Combine that with his awful defense, when he wasn’t DHing, and Young was worth 2 ½ fewer wins than a replacement level player. He’s the entrenched starting 3rd baseman.

Elsewhere, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley return for the next installment of “As The DL Turns.” Utley hasn’t played in more than 115 games since 2009. Howard hasn’t been worth more than one win above replacement since that season. Howard played in only 71 games last year after breaking his leg in the Phillies 2011 postseason elimination game. And he was, in a word, bad.

Utley is 34. Young is 36. Howard is 33. Jimmy Rollins is 34. Behind them is Freddy Galvis and Kevin Frandsen. In other words, not a whole lot of depth. And there’s no one in the Phillies really poor minor league system who can be of help in the immediate future.

In the rotation, the trio of Halladay, Hamels, and Lee is not what it once was, with the decline in Roy Halladay’s stuff. Halladay has lost average velocity on his fastball each of the last 3 seasons and is certainly coming off his worst year as a professional since he was 23 and pitching in Toronto. Now, Halladay is 35. There was much more hope for a bounce back from 23 year old Roy then there is for 35 year old Roy. Statistics aside, Halladay has not looked very good this spring either and frankly, could be done at this point, putting an end to a really great career.

Hamels and Lee are still great pitchers and will be the linchpins of any success that Philadelphia has this season. They’ll have to be. Behind them are Kyle Kendrick and John Lannan. The Phillies will need to get contributions from Howard and Utley, sure, but they will need Hamels and Lee to pitch their absolute best (which could net either an NL Cy Young) if they’re going to think about competing for a Wild Card berth.

They won’t compete for a Wild Card berth. Not even close.

Predicted Finish: 76-86

Texas Rangers Preview

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Biggest Offseason Acquisition: Lance Berkman


Potential Fatal Flaw: Depth, Lack of

Ceiling: AL West Champion

Floor: Missing the playoffs

Overall: Josh Hamilton is gone. Michael Young is gone (and terrible…BUT A TOTAL PROFESSIONAL). Mike Napoli is gone. Colby Lewis is hurt. Neftali Feliz is hurt. Nelson Cruz is, well, he’s not hurt. Yet.

Make no mistake, this is not the Texas Rangers team who won consecutive AL pennants. They’re still good, but, they need everyone to stay healthy to have a chance to earn a playoff spot.

We’ll start in the rotation. Ever heard of Nick Tepesch? Great. He’s the fifth starter because of the aforementioned injuries to Lewis and Feliz (as well as to Martin Perez). Behind Tepesch? Uh…I guess that Robbie Ross could start.

Tepesch is joined by Yu Darvish, who I think will improve off of a solid rookie campaign, Matt Harrison, who you’ll remember was an All-Star in 2012, Derek Holland, who is nowhere near as good of a pitcher as he is perceived to be, and Alexi Ogando, who as of this moment is not on the disabled list, but who knows, right?

Holland is by far the weakest link of that group, assuming all are healthy. Ogando is a really good pitcher. In his one year as a starter, 2011, he made 29 starts, and posted a 1.13 WHIP and a K/BB ratio close to 3. He made the All-Star team, for what that’s worth. Harrison pitches to contact perhaps a little too much, but it hasn’t hurt him too badly. Darvish could be your AL Cy Young Award winner this season. He’s a strikeout artist who just needs to cut back on his walks. If he does that, he’s good enough to be the Rangers’ Justin Verlander.

If you’re looking for a Nick Tepesch scouting report, you read the wrong blog, though you already knew that.

Offensively is where I think Texas struggles a bit more this season. The top of the order, with Elvis Andrus, Ian Kinsler, and Adrian Beltre is really good. All of them are arguably the best player at their position in the American League. It’s the rest of the lineup that’s a problem. Lance Berkman, if healthy, should excel in Texas as a full-time DH. Say what you want about the less-than-fit Berkman, but when healthy, he’s still a very useful bat. The outfield is the problem. You’ve got David Murphy, who is best served as a platoon player because of his struggles against lefties, Nelson Cruz, who is another guy that is perceived as better than he is (career .268/.328/.494) hitter who has played only one full-season in his career (2012), and Leonys Martin, who has 54 career at-bats.

The Rangers are a playoff team. I don’t think that’s changed. But I don’t think they’re a very good playoff team. The starting pitching will carry this team, led by Darvish who will be right there with Justin Verlander and John Lackey for the AL Cy Young (JOKES!). Offensively, there’s enough at the top of the order to take advantage of the home park and score enough runs to win some games. But I don’t see a long run in the Rangers this year.

Predicted Finish: 86-76

San Francisco Giants Preview

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Biggest Offseason Acquisition: Not applicable


Potential Fatal Flaw: Many more than you’d think from a World Series Champion

Ceiling: NL Wild Card

Floor: Not in the playoffs

Overall: This is not a criticism of the 2012 World Series Champion Giants, but it’s worth remembering, always, that the team that wins a championship is not necessarily the best team.

Major League teams play 162 games to enter a fairly random, small sample-filled tournament. The Giants were the third best team in the National League in the 162-game season. History will show though that the Giants were the “best team” in baseball because they won the tournament after the six-month slog.

The point of this diatribe is that the San Francisco Giants think of themselves as the best team from 2012. So good, in fact, that they did not sign a single consequential free agent this offseason. The Giants did not try to improve, potentially because they don’t think there’s room to improve. They’ll come to find that their thinking is wrong.

Offensively, the Giants are led by the great Buster Posey. Posey is a terrific catcher and a terrific hitter. He’s one of the brightest stars in baseball. And the Giants will need him to win the NL MVP again, or at least play like the NL MVP, if they are going to make a run at the NL West.

Now, the Giants did, in fact, sign a free agent this offseason. That is to say, they re-signed a free agent. That free agent is a 36-year old  second baseman with a career .731 OPS. They signed this player, Marco Scutaro, to a 3 year, $20 million deal. Because that’s what you do when 36-year old second basemen with career .731 OPSs win the NLCS MVP (Fyi, Scutaro was 7-for-36 in the other two postseason series last year).  

San Francisco also didn’t see it logical to sign a free agent starting pitcher. No, they’re going to go into this season with Tim Lincecum and Barry Zito in their starting rotation, even though they posted 67 and 84 ERA+s respectively in the 2012 regular season. Or, if you like old fashioned ERA, 5.18 and 4.15.

But Lincecum and Zito were saviors in the postseason, so surely they’ll just pitch this regular season like they did last postseason. Surely not like they did during the regular season. Oh, it’s worth noting that Lincecum was a postseason savior while pitching in an entirely different role out of the bullpen.

The 2010 San Francisco Giants won the World Series. That offseason, they didn’t sign a consequential free agent and, despite winning 86 games, missed the 2011 postseason.

I see a repeat happening in 2013. Complacency, especially flawed complacency, rarely benefits anyone. The Giants played in an NL West that was down last year. The Dodgers, Padres and Diamondbacks are all better teams coming into 2013. A few fewer wins in the 162 game season won’t get San Francisco to the postseason in 2013.

Predicted Finish: 84-78