Sadly, no commentary from me on the state of Brett Favre’s cell phone camera. Before I take inventory of the NFL through a power rankings type list, let’s take a quick look at the Major League Baseball playoffs. Not to toot my own horn (I’M AWESOME!!!!) but I’ve hit each series nearly dead on so far, as we head into Game 5 between Texas and Tampa Bay tonight at the Trop. I expect the Rangers to win this game thanks to another masterful playoff performance by Cliff Lee. David Price did not look good in Game 1. His pitch selection was awful (he threw 21 consecutive fastballs to start the game) and he got hit hard by everyone in Texas’ lineup. If I’m Texas, I’m nervous about this becoming a bullpen game because Neftali Feliz probably shouldn’t pitch in this game, considering how bad he’s looked in his first playoff go-round. My prediction: 5-1 win for Texas. Lee pitches 8 innings, striking out 8 and walking none. Someone (Darren O’Day perhaps) closes out the ninth for the Rangers, who move on to a seven game series with the Yankees, that likely won’t go seven games.

We’re heading into a separation Sunday sort of day for the NFL. A handful of teams will have their season made or broken this week. Here are the five most important matchups:

Baltimore @ New England- A huge test for both teams. New England needs to show some defensive growth. Baltimore needs to shred the Patriots’ young D.

Dallas @ Minnesota- The loser is done for the 2010 season, as they will fall to 1-4.

Philadelphia @ Atlanta- Are the Falcons for real? Can Kevin Kolb keep the Eagles afloat? And how awesome would it have been to have had Michael Vick starting this game?

Miami @ Green Bay- The Dolphins need a win against a good team to prove their worth. And Green Bay needs to show some life.

Indianapolis @ Washington- The Redskins can create a believer or two with a win over the Colts in front of a national audience.

I’ve never been a big fan of the power rankings you see published by national media outlets, where all 32 teams are measured against each other. So here are our divisional power rankings, after 5 weeks of the NFL season:

AFC East

1. New York Jets
2. New England Patriots
3. Miami Dolphins
4. Buffalo Bills

– The Jets have beaten the Patriots and the Dolphins, which lands them the top spot. For most people’s money, their biggest weakness is Quarterback. Mark Sanchez has a passer rtg. of 91.7 (higher than Aaron Rodgers) and is the only starting QB in the NFL without an interception thrown. He might not look like an elite quarterback all the time, but Sanchez is effective enough. As for the Patriots and Dolphins, I think they’re very close, but I give the Patriots the advantage because they beat Miami on the road. Buffalo will have the first pick in the draft and might go 0-16. Their only shot at a win comes in mid-November when Detroit comes to Buffalo.

AFC North

1. Pittsburgh Steelers
2. Baltimore Ravens
3. Cleveland Browns
4. Cincinnati Bengals

– Yes, Cincinnati beat Baltimore in Week 2, but that looks like the high point for the 2010 Bengals. Meanwhile, the Ravens have gotten better each week and have to be feeling great after Ray Rice had his best game of 2010. The Ravens are like the Jets, in that their perceived weakness is at the QB position. Joe Flacco though, unlike Mark Sanchez, has been awful thus far, which keeps the Ravens behind the Steelers. And while Baltimore beat Pittsburgh at Heinz Field in Week 4, the Steelers were without Ben Roethlisberger, who comes back this week. The Steelers defense has been outstanding so far and I don’t see that stopping. I like Cleveland more than Cincinnati because the Bengals look like a team that is on the verge of quitting on their coach, while the Browns fight hard every week.

AFC South

1. Indianapolis Colts
2. Tennessee Titans
3. Houston Texans
4. Jacksonville Jaguars

-I know that the Colts have already lost to both Houston and Jacksonville, but I would remind you that they’re still tied for first in this underratedly bad division. And who do you want quarterbacking your average team? Peyton Manning or David Garrard? I rest my case.

AFC West

1. San Diego Chargers
2. Kansas City Chiefs
3. Denver Broncos
4. Oakland Raiders

– Call me a non-believer in the Chiefs. Matt Cassel is not the quarterback of the future or the present for this team. His unsteady leadership is what is holding back Jamaal Charles from breaking out. Dexter McCluster should be touching the ball 20 times a game, but isn’t. And Dwayne Bowe has been more than awful at receiver. And it all goes back to Cassel’s play. The Chiefs don’t have a consistent enough passing game and that’s hurting everything else on offense. The Chargers, meanwhile, can score on anyone, but can’t stop anyone. Denver runs the ball like an Arena League team. And Oakland is hinging all of its hopes on Bruce Gradkowski staying healthy. This division is the NFL’s version of Jersey Shore. It’s painful to look at, but it sure is fun. For some people. Not me. I like real football. I’ll tip my cap towards the Chargers because they do what they do well the best of anyone here.

NFC East

1. New York Giants
2. Philadelphia Eagles
3. Washington Redskins
4. Dallas Cowboys

-Michael Vick’s health would push the Eagles to my number one spot, but in his absence, we’re going with the Giants and their improved defense and improving running game. Eli Manning, though, needs to be a lot more careful with the football. The Eagles just need Kevin Kolb to manage games until Vick returns. The defense isn’t good, but it’s good enough in the East. Washington is an enigma to me and not worth talking about. And Dallas just isn’t worth talking about.

NFC North

1. Minnesota Vikings
2. Chicago Bears
3. Green Bay Packers
4. Detroit Lions

-The Vikings are either going to be a hot rod that will race to the top of this division or the wheels will fall off. I don’t know why, but I’m leaning towards them coming from behind to win the race. They’ve only played one division game and they won it. They can do some damage. Chicago is playing well, but Mike Martz’s genius offense isn’t so smart in Chicago in November and December. They will collapse. And I don’t know what’s wrong with Green Bay, other than them clearly buying into the hype. Much like the Saints. Speaking of which….

NFC South

1. Atlanta Falcons
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3. New Orleans Saints
4. Carolina Panthers

– The Falcons showed that they can beat New Orleans in Week 3. And I know they’re better than Tampa Bay. They should be able to win this division rather easily. They’re good everywhere, but not great. They’re solid, not sexy. I don’t see a Super Bowl run in them, but they’re a functional playoff team. You may be shocked by Tampa over New Orleans, but you’ll see this Sunday when these two teams play in Tampa that the Bucs are for real. Josh Freeman has progressed hugely in his second season and the young defense has done a good job so far in 2010. I know that Pittsburgh manhandled them in Week 3. But Pittsburgh is a lot better than every team in the South, including the Saints. I wasn’t high on New Orleans coming into the season and I’m still not sold on them. Drew Brees has been nothing short of mediocre thus far. The injury to Reggie Bush has hurt an already weak running game. And Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem have regressed this season. The offense is nowhere near as good as it was in 2010. And the defense was never that good to begin with. (See: Giving up 30 points to Max Hall and the Arizona Cardinals. And they should have lost to San Francisco too.)

NFC West

1. St. Louis Rams
2. Arizona Cardinals
3. Seattle Seahawks
4. San Francisco 49ers

-Here we have the worst team winning a division and the best team finishing in last. This describes the NFC very well. While Dallas, Minnesota, San Francisco, New Orleans, and Green Bay are all struggling to stay relevant, the St. Louis Rams (led by a rookie quarterback), the Arizona Cardinals (led by an undrafted rookie quarterback), and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (led by a second year quarterback) are all playing above their heads. I like the energy in St. Louis. They’re by no means a good football team, but neither are the Cardinals, Seahawks, or Niners. Sam Bradford has shown flashes of greatness. As for Arizona, I have a very hard time buying into Max Hall as an NFL QB. And I still think Seattle is awful, but if their defense can continue playing well, led by NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year favorite Earl Thomas, I might have to eat my crow. And for those who think San Francisco is still going to win this division, you clearly haven’t watched this team play.

At the start of the year, I predicted Green Bay and Baltimore would play in the Super Bowl. I’m changing my mind on both teams. Baltimore hasn’t gotten the QB play it needs and Ray Rice has been inconsistent. I like the Jets to win the AFC. I think Mark Sanchez can manage a game well enough to let the defense win almost every week. In the NFC, I cannot see Green Bay putting it together without any running game. Aaron Rodgers needs something. I’m not too concerned with his absence for a week or two with a concussion nearly as much as I am with the fact that when he returns, the team will likely be .500 and facing a Minnesota team that won’t have to plan for the run. In the NFC, you can a feather into a hurricane and see where it lands. For right now, I like the Giants or Eagles. I’ll be cute and take the Giants so that we have an all-New York Super Bowl, played in Dallas.

Early Season Awards:

NFL MVP: Michael Vick. The Eagles with Vick looked like an unstoppable force. If he returns soon and stays healthy, he’ll win this award. Peyton Manning also deserves so pub, except his team is 3-2 and 0-2 in the division. I’d put Phillip Rivers third on this list for now, with Tom Brady a distant 4th.

NFL Def. POY: Troy Polamalu. Not even close.

NFL Off. ROY: Jahvid Best. He gets the nod over Sam Bradford.

NFL Def. ROY: Earl Thomas. Game changing safety. Much better than I thought he’d be.

NFL Coach of the Year: Raheem Morris. Has turned Tampa from a joke to a tough, young football team. They’re the NFL’s Oklahoma City Thunder from two years ago.

(editor’s note: This was written on Monday October 4th)

As I write this, I’m watching the minor train wreck that is the New York Mets hold a press conference discussing the team’s future. Earlier today, they fired GM Omar Minaya and Manager Jerry Manuel, about two years too late. Minaya was an abhorrent failure in New York as GM. The Mets minor league system is in the bottom 1/3 of MLB and the Major League club isn’t exactly awash in great talent, outside of David Wright, Johan Santana, and amateur boxer Francisco Rodriguez. The Mets developed the nickname “The Mess” this year. And that shouldn’t change in 2011.

Also today, the Pittsburgh Pirates fired manager John Russell. I know nothing about John Russell, but here’s what I do know: Russell was given the “opportunity” to manage an overmatched group of top prospects (Pedro Alvarez), good young players (Andrew McCutchen), failed prospects (Lastings Milledge), and replacement players (Delwyn Young). And that was the good part. The bad part was the Pirates pitching. Zach Duke, Charlie Morton, Jeff Karstens, and Brian Burres all saw a little too much of the pitching mound. The lone bright spot from a pitching standpoint, to me, was James McDonald, who came over from the Dodgers and showed some promise for the future. Sadly, for James and the Pirates and their great fans, he’ll likely be the Opening Day starter in 2011.

But we’re not hear to talk about 2011, are we? We’re here to look ahead to what should be a great postseason.

The American League gives us two interesting matchups. First, we’ve seen Minnesota play the New York Yankees quite a bit in the playoffs. In fact, they’ve met 4 times in the ALDS in the last ten years. But there’s something different about this matchup. First, the Twins have home field advantage. Second, the Yankees pitching is not very good. Third, the Twins have that really pretty new park, Target Field. You know what’s not different? The fact that the Yankees will win this series. Just like they have every other time they’ve played. The difference maker? Clearly the offense. The absence of Justin Morneau from Minnesota’s lineup will hurt them in a way that it didn’t during the regular season. The Yankees took 5 of 7 from the Twins during the regular season. If Minnesota can’t get to CC Sabathia in Game 1, the playoffs won’t be any different. The Yankees doubters will cite the fact that if the season started on August 1, New York would have finished last in the AL East. Those of us who aren’t trying to be contradictory will cite that these are the New York Yankees. Yankees win 3-1.

The other ALDS matchup is far more interesting, because we haven’t seen this one before. In my July “look-ahead” post, I talked about how much I was looking forward to this then potential matchup. “ I’m giddy at the possibility of this series,” I said. Well, I’m still giddy, especially for the first game which gives us the marquee pitching matchup of the DS games: Cliff Lee v. David Price. I expect the Rays to win Game 1. Game 2 is where it gets very interesting, with CJ Wilson facing James Shields and anything can happen from there. Back in July, I said that the Rays would win a very close 3-2 series. I’m going to flip-flop here and give this one to the Rangers, also 3-2. Tampa has struggled in Arlington, Texas over the past two season. If the Rays don’t win the first two at home, they won’t win the series. Rangers win 3-2.

In the National League, our first matchup pits the Phillies and Reds. This series will not be close. The Phillies pitching is way too good for Cincinnati to try to contend with and the Phillies offense is more stacked than the Reds. Philadelphia wins 3-0 in one of those series that is over before your realized it started.

On the other side, we have the Giants and Braves. The thing that jumps out at my first is that we’ll get to see Jason Heyward and Buster Posey square off on the biggest stage of their young, promising careers. I expect both to struggle a bit. I like the Giants in this series because they’re better stocked than Atlanta, who will have to win with an inferior pitching rotation and without Chipper Jones and, more importantly in this, the year 2010, Martin Prado. As always, this comes down to the ability of the road team (Atlanta) to steal a game on the road in the first two. I don’t think the Braves can do that, based on pitching matchups (Lincecum/Cain vs. Lowe/Hanson). Atlanta can take a game at home, but it ultimately won’t make a difference. Don’t expect a lot of runs (think a few 3-1 games). Do expect a Giants win 3-1.

Before I go, I’d like to weigh in on the MLB Regular Season awards.

AL MVP: Josh Hamilton (His numbers, even without the month of September, are the reason why this team is where it is right now.)
AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez (It’s not even close. I don’t care about pitcher wins. It’s not 1978 anymore. Let’s take a look at the stats to the right of that pesky “W.” If we do, Hernandez blew away CC Sabathia and David Price).
AL Rookie of the Year: Neftali Feliz (I’d prefer Brian Matusz if this award was given away for performance in August and September, while ignoring May, June, and July. It isn’t, so Feliz’s solid year closing for Texas wins a cheapy).
AL Manager of the Year: Terry Francona (Maybe I’m biased, but he trotted out a AAA lineup every day and nearly snuck into the playoffs. Sorry Ron Washington.)

NL MVP: Joey Votto (I give it to Votto for his consistent year, leading a division winner, with great production).
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay (Adam Wainwright is closer than most are giving him credit for).
NL Rookie of the Year: Jason Heyward (This is the most compelling of the awards. Posey and Heyward put up very similar numbers. Heyward’s WAR is 1.5 better than Posey’s and he played from Day 1, and so I lean him. But Posey is just as deserving. I tend to think they should split the award).
NL Manager of the Year: Bud Black (No contest).

You might think that it’s way too early to take inventory of the 2010 College Football season. But I’d argue, “Hey, we’re 1/4 of the way through the season. And 1/4 is a fraction that people deem important for some reason.” And so with that, let’s take a quick conference-by-conference look at the landscape, along with some discussion of who’s a real contender for a January trip to the desert, starting in boring-ville:

ACC
Wasn’t this supposed to be Virginia Tech’s conference to win? Or Miami’s? Or Florida State’s? Well, each of them has lost at least one game (two for Virginia Tech, including one to a very good FCS team in James Madison.) and looked pretty awful in doing so. Only two teams in the entire conference find themselves undefeated at this point (NC State and Boston College). The Wolfpack appear to be the better of those two, led by the very underrated Russell Wilson at QB. I was very tempted to go out on a limb and take the Pack as my ACC Other Division champion in my preview, but went chalk with the ‘Noles. I’m rethinking that a little now, though we’ll find out if NC State is for real after they finish a three week stretch with games against Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and Boston College. The defense has been good so far, albeit not against the best competition. Based on talent (and an easy conference schedule), Florida State still has to be this division’s favorite, for now.

Georgia Tech has the biggest conference win, in beating North Carolina on Saturday and find themselves in the driver’s seat for the Coastal crown. I still like Virginia Tech, as crazy as that sounds. They have an experienced quarterback, two great running backs and a young defense that will get better (because they have to). Georgia Tech does not have the offensive dynamism that Virginia Tech does. I see the Hokies bouncing back this week by laying a whopping on Boston College. And don’t count out the Hurricane’s, even though their offense did not look good against Ohio State. We’ll find out a lot about the Canes on Thursday in Pittsburgh.

I’m not going to revise my conference championship picks, but I will point out that it won’t matter because this conference is horrendous. One win against AQ teams from the other 5 conferences. (North Carolina State over Cincinnati). No team in this conference is a national title contender. Not even close.

Big East
I promise this will get interesting soon. There are only two undefeated teams in the Big East (West Virginia and Rutgers) and one of them nearly lost to Marshall, while the other’s statement win this year was a 5 point victory over Florida International. Much like the ACC, only 1 team has a victory over an AQ team (West Virginia’s over Maryland). Most people’s trendy preseason sleeper pick (UConn) lost by 14 to Temple on Saturday. And last year’s champion (Cincinnati) is about to start the season 1-3 after a trip to Norman, Oklahoma on Saturday. So this isn’t quite the Big East’s year.

Having seen every single play of Pittsburgh’s season (one on TV and once in person), I’m still leaning in their direction for the conference championship, but where I would have argued that they were a dark horse in the national championship hunt back in August, I’d look like a doofus if I tried to argue that now. Inconsistent quarterbacking play, combined with the slow start by sophomore RB Dion Lewis have made Pittsburgh look very beatable (and in the case of Utah, beatable). Pitt’s worth will be proven on Thursday against Miami. They’ll lose that one, but it won’t make a difference once they start playing the likes of Louisville and South Florida.

Big XII
Finally, a (sort of) real conference. The shocker on shock street so far, to me, has to be Kansas State who is 3-0, with two victories over AQ teams (UCLA and Iowa State). However, they’re in the Big XII north and Nebraska looms large. I sold the Huskers very short in my season preview. They’re very for real (I know, good English). I had my doubts about them traveling to Seattle to play Washington on Saturday, but the Huskers took the Huskies and the overrated Jake Locker to the woodshed. The defense is just as good as I thought, but the offense, led by freshman Taylor Martinez is electric. Nebraska is back and Nebraska is darned good.

In the south, Texas and Oklahoma have started 3-0, but the real surprise to me is Oklahoma State, who leads the nation in passing offense and is second in scoring, against 3 FBS opponents. And yes, they’re all terrible (Washington State, Tulsa, and Troy), but still, kudos to Mike Gundy who is doing this without Zac Robinson and Dez Bryant. OK State’s first test comes next Thursday in a game against also 3-0 Texas A&M, who just managed to squeak by Florida Int’l. on Saturday.

But, again, as always, this comes down to Saturday, October 2. Oklahoma and Texas. The only difference now is that I don’t think the winner of that game has the inside track on the conference title. Right now, I give that to Nebraska.

Big Ten
Ohio State. I didn’t want to believe in Terrelle Pryor. But I have to. Ohio State is too good. I can’t seem them losing a game on that schedule, except maybe, just maybe, they don’t take Iowa seriously enough when they travel to Iowa City in late November, a week before the Michigan game. I don’t expect the Wolverines to be a challenge going forward. Yes, Shoelace Robinson is a great story and he’s the Heisman front-runner right now (more on this later). But Michigan had a lot of defensive trouble with the Massachusetts Minutemen and there is not the offensive balance to survive a middle-of-the-pack conference. If Michigan was in the ACC or the Big East, I could see them finishing 10-2. In the Big Ten, they’re closer to an 8-4 team. But that’s an improvement.

I also don’t expect Wisconsin to be a challenge. Call me cynical, but I have a hard time believing in a team that comes within a blocked PAT of needing overtime, at home, against the 8th best team from the Pac-10. Wisconsin can run the ball, but put 7 in the box and you’ve got them beaten. No elite athletes to contend with guys like Shoelace and Pryor.

Iowa is the interesting team because from what I saw on Saturday, they’re not ready for the big-time (not that they ever are). Sure they were playing about 1700 miles from Iowa City in 101 degree Tucson, Arizona against a darn good football team. But those are games that you’re supposed to win. Ohio State would have won that game (though Ohio State would never schedule something as ludicrous as a late game at Arizona in September). Iowa is a good football team, but they’re Capital One Bowl good. They are not Rose Bowl good and, unlike Michigan, but just like Wisconsin, there’s no potential for that to happen.

Pac-10
My favorite conference. Yes, the cachet is not to the level of the SEC. The hitting isn’t as hard and the skill players aren’t quite as fast. But there’s some good football out west, if you can find a way to stay awake past 11 p.m.

Any Pac-10 review has to start with Oregon, who has set the world on fire, averaging 63 points a game. And the reason why they’re so good? Their rushing ability. Oregon is averaging 380 yards per game on the ground. If your eyes just fell out of your skull, then I did my job. 380 YPG is an astounding number for a major conference program that can also throw the football (231 YPG). Air Force is averaging 399 YPG, but they’re also 116th in passing. Oregon is 49th. And yes, they’ve played a bad New Mexico team, a down Tennessee team, and Portland State, but my gosh, they’re racking up over 600 yards of offense per game. Oregon plays at Arizona State on Saturday before a showdown in Eugene on October 2 against Stanford.

The Cardinal possess my favorite quarterback in college football, Andrew Luck. Luck’s mechanics are flawless, much like his 2010 numbers thus far: 45 of 70, 674 Yards, 10 TD, 0 INT. Stanford hasn’t kept it close with anyone so far, with two 35 point wins (Sacramento State and UCLA) and a 44 point win over Wake Forest on Saturday. The Cardinal have an intriguing game on Saturday in South Bend against the Fighting Irish. If they and Ducks can make it to October 2nd unscathed, we may be looking at the Game of the Year in college football.

Beyond Stanford and Oregon, though Arizona and USC are lurking. USC, of course, has no postseason eligibility and is irrelevant to this conversation. Arizona, however, has a statement win under their belt (Iowa) and an NFL arm under center in Nick Foles. And, to boot, they have the nation’s 9th best defense, statistically, under the guide of criminally insane head coach Mike Stoops. I expect Arizona to be 8-0 when they travel to Palo Alto to play Stanford on November 6. And if they can win that, their reward is back-to-back games against USC and at Oregon. No small feat.

SEC
I’m going to get it out of the way now and just say that I was dead wrong in my touting of Florida. I thought that they could play through or around John Brantley as he developed into their quarterback. They can’t and he won’t. He does not look to have it. He resembles Chris Leak early on in his tenure. And that is magnified more by the man he’s replacing (Tim Tebow) and what he accomplished at Florida. The offense looks lost. The skill players don’t look skilled. And you can only rely on your defense so much before you run into a team like Alabama (October 2) and get the snot beaten out of you. Right now, Florida does not look like a team that can beat Alabama. Or LSU. Or Florida State for that matter.

South Carolina, on the other hand, looks like the best of the SEC East. The road isn’t easy for the Gamecocks (at Auburn this Saturday and home against Alabama in two weeks). But they look like a team that can win with defense, and that’s the SEC mantra. So long as Stephen Garcia can protect the football and they continue to get production out of Marcus Lattimore, they’ll be the Eastern representative in Atlanta in early December.

Out West, it’s a race for second place. There are not enough good things I can say about Alabama and how great they look. They’re 17th in Passing Offense and 13th in Rushing Offense. They’re 9th in scoring offense and 2nd in scoring defense. They’re fast. They’re physical. They run complex defensive schemes that college quarterbacks cannot figure out. They’re well-coached. And they’re so, so deep on both sides of the ball. They’re unstoppable. Their next 3 games come against ranked opponents (at Arkansas, home against Florida, and at South Carolina). You can color me shocked if they slip up in any of those games. Because they shouldn’t. They’ve played at 3/4 speed in their first three games and dismantled San Jose State, Penn State, and Duke. Just look out for them when they play at full speed.

The race for second comes down to LSU, Auburn, and Arkansas, all of whom are inherently flawed in some way. LSU isn’t good enough offensively. Auburn isn’t good enough defensively. And Arkansas is so one-sided offensively, that a team like Alabama will key in on Ryan Mallet and make his life miserable for 60 minutes. Arkansas is the favorite to me, with Auburn the wild card. The Tigers have looked very beatable against both Mississippi State and Clemson, but they’ve beaten both teams, when, at least in the case of the Clemson game, they shouldn’t have. And Cameron Newton is only going to get better, in my opinion. Some consistency in the backfield from Michael Dyer or Onterio McCalebb would help Newton immensely, but it’s the defense that is the concern. I can’t see them stopping teams who do one thing very well (South Carolina running the ball/Arkansas throwing). There’s not enough depth. Arkansas is the choice because they do what they do best, best. But second place in the SEC West is only going to get you the Cotton Bowl. And we’re playing for title games here.

Big Picture
So, who’s going to the title game at this point in the season? Well, Alabama certainly. The Crimson Tide are the best team in college football, bar none. Behind them, you’ve got Ohio State, TCU, Boise State, Oregon, Stanford, South Carolina, Arizona, Texas, Nebraska, and Oklahoma, in some order. Sadly, though, this comes down to numbers. Primarily the number “0,” which is what I see Ohio State finishing the season with as it pertains to losses. They just look to be a step better than their competition on all levels of the game. That’ll leave out undefeated TCU, Boise, and potential undefeateds Nebraska, Oregon, Oklahoma, etc.

Look, anything can happen in the next 3/4. Did you see Jacksonville State beating Ole Miss? Or Denard Robinson accounting for 94% of Michigan’s offense against Notre Dame? Or so-called top NFL prospect Jake Locker going 4-20 against Nebraska? Or Nevada crushing California? No. It’s college football and anything can happen on Saturdays (and Fridays and Thursdays too). All of this could be wrong. Alabama could take one game for granted against a South Carolina or an Auburn and lose. Ohio State could get cocky and get beaten by unranked Minnesota. One thing, though is for certain, so far: Alabama and Ohio State are the two best teams in the country, on paper. But, honey, they don’t play these games on paper. They play them on Saturdays.

Heisman Front-Runners
1. Denard Robinson (QB/Michigan)
2. Terrelle Pryor (QB/Ohio State)
3. Trent Richardson (RB/Alabama)
4. Andrew Luck (QB/Stanford)
5. Taylor Martinez (QB/Nebraska)

A few rookie-related follow-ups to my season preview before we get to the post at hand:

5 Rookies Destined to Breakout This Year:
Ryan Mathews (RB/San Diego)
Jordan Shipley (WR/Cincinnati)
Kyle Wilson (CB/New York Jets)
Eric Berry (S/Kansas City)
Ndamukong Suh (DT/Detroit)

5 First Rounders You Won’t Hear a (Good) Thing From in 2010:
Tyson Alualu (DE/Jacksonville)
Dan Williams (DT/Arizona)
Earl Thomas (S/Seattle)
Jason Pierre-Paul (DE/New York Giants)
Kareem Jackson (CB/Houston)

Something occurred to me during my anti-Mike Williams (Seattle) rant yesterday in this space: How many times has a top-10 draft pick wideout turned into an elite producer, if only for one season? And so here we go.

First, to determine “elite” we need to create a statistical benchmark. Looking at the top performers in terms of receptions, yards, and TDs, over the last 10 NFL seasons, this is what I came up with:

-90 Receptions (Every league leader in the last 10+ years has finished with more than 100 receptions. For the sake of this argument, lets go with 90 as that gives us a top 5-8 for each year.)
-1400 Yards (Most of our league leaders over the past 10 years have finished well over 1400 yards with the exception of Chad Johnson in 2006 who finished with 1369, but that was an anomaly, as 1996 was the last time we had a league leader with under 1400 yards receiving.)
-9 TD (This is the tough one because you’d think the number should be higher, but it’s not. Randy Moss led the NFL with 23 in 2007, but the next closest single-season league leader is Randy Moss with 17 in 2001. The average number of TDs for the league-leader over the last 10 seasons is 15. Moss’s two seasons certainly boost that number up, so 9 seemed like a good (low) place to work from. Science!)

90 Rec, 1400 Yards, 9 TD. That’s not asking for a lot from a top-10 draft pick is it? I mean, if you’re going to use a Top-10 draft pick, you expect great production, no? Let’s take a look:

Our next step is to list each WR taken in the top-10 of the NFL Draft since 2000. Here they are, in all of their, um, glory:

Peter Warrick (Florida State/Cincinnati)
Plaxico Burress (Michigan State/Pittsburgh)
Travis Taylor (Florida/Baltimore)
David Terrell (Michigan/Chicago)
Koren Robinson (North Carolina State/Seattle)
Charles Rogers (Michigan State/Detroit)
Andre Johnson (Miami/Houston)
Larry Fitzgerald (Pittsburgh/Arizona)
Roy Williams (Texas/Detroit)
Reggie Williams (Washington/Jacksonville)
Braylon Edwards (Michigan/Cleveland)
Troy Williamson (South Carolina/Minnesota)
Mike Williams (Southern California/Detroit)
Calvin Johnson (Georgia Tech/Detroit)
Ted Ginn Jr. (Ohio State/Miami)
Darrius Heyward-Bey (Maryland/Oakland)
Michael Crabtree (Texas Tech/San Francisco)

Some names certainly jump out there. Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson namely:

Andre Johnson’s best statistical season? 115 Receptions, 1575 Yards, 8 TD
Larry Fitzgerald’s best statistical season? 96 Receptions, 1431 Yards, 12 TD

Both pass my benchmark. Johnson falls short of the TD standard, but his other numbers more than make up for that difference. You would be surprised though to learn that Johnson has only caught more than 80 balls 3 times in his 7 seasons. Part of that falls on poor quarterbacking certainly, so again, he gets a bit of a pass, not that he needs it.

Fitzgerald on the other hand, has caught 90+ in 4 of his 6 seasons and has caught double digit TDs 4 times as well. Statistically, he’s our man for this.

After Fitzgerald and Johnson though, who are we left with?

Plaxico Burress? 70 Rec, 1025 Yards, 12 TD. That doesn’t pass my benchmark. Too few receptions and receiving yards. He becomes the “fade” guy in the red zone, which is why the TD number is so high.

Braylon Edwards? 80 Rec, 1289 Yards, 16 TD. But his next highest TD season? That would be 6 TD in 2006. He doesn’t pass either. Again, lots of fades in the end zone. Also, can we call him elite based on his chairmanship of the Drops Hall of Fame?

Calvin Johnson? 78 Rec. 1331 Yards, 12 TD. Close, but no cigar. He has time though. And he has a QB throwing him the ball now. I think he gets there, but for now, it’s still just Andre Johnson and Fitzgerald.

Peter Warrick? 79 Rec. 819 Yards, 7 TD. Not so much. A slot receiver with a low YAC (yards after catch) number. Pathetic actually. Peter Warrick enjoyed falling down after catches. He was a league-leader in that category.

Troy Williamson? 37 Rec. 455 Yards, 0 TD. Getting colder….Seriously, that’s his most productive season. He was a top 10 pick.

Reggie Williams? 38 Rec. 628 Yards, 10 TD. You want to talk about a fades in the end zone guy? 25% of his catches were TDs.

Ted Ginn Jr.? 56 Rec. 790 Yards, 2 TD. Another candidate for the Peter Warrick “FAC (falls after catch) hall of fame.

Roy Williams? 82 Rec. 1310 Yards, 7 TD. Solid numbers. But as we’ve seen from Roy, this was an anomaly. His next best season? 63 Rec. 836 Yards, 5 TD. Big drop-off.

Travis Taylor? 61 Rec. 869 Yards, 6 TD. Hey, those are Roy Williams numbers!

Koren Robinson 78 Rec. 1240 Yards 5 TD. Probably a guy who could have been a step below elite, but still a #1 WR (think Greg Jennings) had he not had a penchant for abusing substances.

The rest of our guys are either too young to judge (Crabtree), clearly destined for a career with the Omaha Nighthawks (Heyward-Bey), or never amounted to anything (Terrell, Rogers, Mike Williams).

What we see from this information is that if you’re looking to draft a wideout, perhaps you can wait until later in the 1st Round (Randy Moss), the 2nd Round (Greg Jennings, Chad Ochocinco Johnson), the 3rd Round (Hines Ward, Terrell Owens), or just sign an undrafted free agent (Miles Austin, Wes Welker) and build your team up at other positions (left tackle, defensive end, quarterback). You might be a lot better off. So the next time you see a receiver get drafted by your favorite team in the top 10 (that will be in 2011 when AJ Green and Julio Jones go there) don’t hold your breath waiting for the next Larry Fitzgerald. History shows that you’re more likely going to end up with the next Travis Taylor.

Did you like reading yesterday’s AFC preview? Did you not read it (it’s below this one)? Do you want me to just get down to the NFC preview?

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys
Thought: Hype, hype, hype.
Vital Player: Mike Jenkins. This is a difficult team because I’m not sure that there’s any truly “vital player.” They’re real deep everywhere. Roy Williams was an option, but much like with Darrius Heyward-Bey, I don’t think he’s going to be anything more than a locker room disease. Jenkins is my pick because the Cowboy don’t have a ton of cornerback depth and Jenkins (a first-round pick in 2008) has been a bit of a disappointment. Terrence Newman ain’t getting any younger on the other side of the field. Jenkins needs to become a number 1.
Best-Case: All this hype turns out to be more than hype and the Cowboys finally gel, destroy their competition, Romo throws for 4000 Yards and 30 TD and they finish 14-2, winning their first Super Bowl since 1996 and becoming the first team to play in a Super Bowl in their home stadium.
Worst-Case: All this hype turns out to be hype and they struggle to stop other teams’ passing attack, all the while not having much of one themselves, as Miles Austin regresses immensely from a monster year in 2009, leaving him dating a Kardashian cousin. The Cowboys finish 8-8 and miss the playoffs. Wade Phillips is fired.

New York Giants
Thought: Oh, no everyone, please continue not talking about the New York Giants.
Vital Player: Keith Bullock. The Giants defense was a joke last year. Bullock comes over from Tennessee with the expectation that he’ll make their defense a whole lot less funny in 2010.
Best-Case: With lowered expectations, the Giants are a sneaky good team who can stop the run and defend the pass. The offense gets something out of Brandon Jacobs, as Ahmad Bradshaw has a breakout year as the lead rusher. The Giants finish 11-5 and march to the NFC title game.
Worst-Case: Or their defense is awful again. The addition of Bullock as well as of Antrel Rolle does nothing to shore up the D. Rookie Jason Pierre-Paul looks overmatched, drawing Vernon Gholston comparisons. Osi Uminyiora looks slower than Bengie Molina. Eli Manning throws interceptions like they’re the hottest trend in fancy watches, Tom Coughlin gets fired, and the Giants finish the season 6-10.

Philadelphia Eagles
Thought: Why is it that I love Kevin Kolb so much?
Vital Player: Kevin Kolb. Not to put any pressure on you, Kevin Kolb, but the entire city of Philadelphia hates you, thinks you’re going to fail, and if you do fail, you’re life will be hell until you get traded or cut and get to play elsewhere. No pressure though.
Best-Case: Kevin Kolb shuts up the battery-throwers with back-to-back 300 yard passing games in the first two weeks. He plays consistently well, but not great, for the rest of the season. Think Jeff Garcia. The defense, a patchwork group if I’ve ever seen one, actually makes a lovely blanket for opposing offenses. LeSean McCoy rushes for 1000 yards. They win the East at 11-5 and fall in the Divisional Round of the playoffs.
Worst-Case: Kolb goes out and throws 5 INT in his first two games. The cries for “Mike Vick” or “Mike Kafka’ begin. Kolb loses his confidence, but Andy Reid (the worst coach who people think is a good coach in the NFL) won’t take the pressure off him by running the ball, instead leaving Kolb with this line in Week 5 against the 49ers: 12 of 32, 133 Yards, 0 TD, 4 INT. Mike Vick starts the following week against Atlanta and things only get worse from there. Oh, and the defense resembles patchwork. And not the nice kind. 4-12. I’m not kidding.

Washington Redskins
Thought: I wish I didn’t live in Washington during football season.
Vital Player: Donovan McNabb. I wanted this to be someone other than McNabb, but I kept coming back to him. I don’t care about Albert Haynesworth. I think he’s better served to this team as a free agent. People fail to realize that he’s been wholly unproductive in his career, save for his final season in Tennessee, which happened to be a contract year that landed him a $100 million pay-day. McNabb needs to lead this team. Vocally. McNabb has long been one of my least favorite NFL players. He developed into this pseudo-leader in Philly, where he tried real hard to be likable. People who try hard to be likable often wind up being very disliked. In Washington, McNabb needs to be stable. Not funny. He needs to stay healthy and needs to want to win. I personally don’t like his vibes so far in Washington. I feel like he’s going through the motions.
Best-Case: McNabb is not going through the motions. Devin Thomas decides to be a legitimate pass-catching option. The offensive line keeps McNabb upright and the defense gets by just fine without Albert Haynesworth (or with him. I don’t really care.). The Redskins finish 10-6 and snag a Wild Card berth. This city erupts with joy.
Worst-Case: Donovan McNabb doesn’t much care about playing football in DC and it shows. He’s erratic and inaccurate with his passing. He’s lost a step or seven and takes a beating. Rex Grossman is forced into starting and does fairly well, but the rest of the team is awful. The defense is lethargic and can’t stop the run again. McNabb gets healthy and takes back the starting job, despite Grossman’s good play, and the city revolts against Mike Shannahan. The Redskins finish 4-12 and get to draft Jake Locker or Andrew Luck (I prefer Luck) in the first round in 2011.

Actual Predicted Results
1. New York Giants 10-6
2. Dallas Cowboys 10-6
3. Philadelphia Eagles 8-8
4. Washington Redskins 7-9

NFC North

Chicago Bears
Thought: Borrrrring.
Vital Player: Julius Peppers. I know, I had forgotten that he was on the Bears roster too. I also thought he had retired. When was the last time you remember watching Peppers and thinking, “Man, that guy is an elite defender.”? Look, 10.5 sacks is nothing to sneeze at. But Peppers has the skill to be a 20 sack guy. Or perhaps had it. He’ll need to show that he’s got something left in his tank because this defense needs a spark. And I for one don’t see Brian Urlacher being that spark.
Best-Case: The Mike Martz-led offense resembles the poor man’s version of the 1999 St. Louis Rams (which is pretty darn good). Matt Forte recreates his 2008 rookie season. Brian Urlacher stays healthy for 16 games. And Julius Peppers plays like his hair’s on fire. The Bears finish 10-6 and are in the playoff hunt.
Worst-Case: Jay Cutler throws 25+ INT again, Matt Forte can’t get out of his own way again, no one steps up at the WR position again, Greg Olsen fails to live up to expectations again, etc. etc. Lovie Smith loses his job mid-way through the season, putting Mike Martz in charge. From there, things get really bad. 3-13.

Detroit Lions
Thought: I tend not to like trendy things, but I kind of like the 2010 Detroit Lions. Just a bit.
Vital Player: Matthew Stafford. The rookie’s first season did not go very well. Expectations are higher for 2010 because you’re looking at a guy with all the “tools” people think NFL quarterbacks “need.” Strong arm. And an ability to move one’s legs. Kidding aside, Stafford has some tools to work with on offense. Calvin Johnson and the underrated (perhaps overlooked is a more accurate description) Nate Burleson make up a good 1-2 receiving pair. In the backfield, rookie Jahvid Best is expected to be the team’s first dynamic back since Barry Sanders. But it all comes down to what Stafford has improved on since his rookie season. If he is more accurate, the Lions offense could be a force to be reckoned with.
Best-Case: With an improving defense that isn’t quite there yet (next season), the offense carries the load and manages to outscore a handful of teams, giving the city of Detroit something to be happy about when it comes to football. 8-8 season.
Worst-Case: Stafford still isn’t quite ready and the Lions have a difficult time outscoring anyone. The defense remains one year away. I really don’t see Detroit having a large range between best and worst. They seem to be the easiest team to predict. 6-10 season.

Green Bay Packers
Thought: Super Bowl or bust.
Vital Player: Tramon Williams. I’m not trying to be cute. Al Harris and Atari Bigby are starting the season on the PUP list (ineligible for the first 6 weeks because they’re physically unable to perform). Williams is filling in for Harris, as he did last year. I have real concerns about Green Bay’s secondary without Harris and Bigy. The offense is good enough to outscore any NFL team, but you can’t do that for 16 games. Green Bay’s front 7 will need the back four to play above their heads in the absence of Bigby and Harris.
Best-Case: Super Bowl champions. They dominate the regular season and never miss a beat in the playoffs. 14-2 and Brett Favre who?
Worst-Case: Under an offseason and training camps of great expectations, the Packers completely fail to live up to them. The defense looks like they did against Arizona in the playoffs last season and Aaron Rodgers just isn’t quite as efficient as he was in 2009. 8-8 season. One of the most disappointing outcomes in recent memory in sports. Because this team has the potential to be very very special.

Minnesota Vikings
Thought: Ah, these are the fellas with that Brett Favre feller, right?
Vital Player: Percy Harvin. You want pressure? Fill the void left by Sidney Rice, and while you’re at it, also return kicks/punts, oh and try to fight through those migraines. In your second season. And all the while, keep reminding yourself that you need to win one for Brett Favre.
Best-Case: The defense is tops in the NFL. Adrian Peterson stops fumbling the ball and Favre puts up a solid season (not elite like last year). The Vikings come out of the gate with a win over the Saints on opening night and feel vindication. That drives them through the season to a division title (12-4) and a magical Brett Favre final season Super Bowl title.
Worst-Case: Brett Favre isn’t so great. Percy Harvin misses significant time due to headaches. And the defense, while good, isn’t elite. The Vikings limp to a 9-7 season and fight for the final playoff berth in the NFC.

Actual Predicted Results
1. Green Bay 13-3
2. Minnesota 10-6
3. Detroit 7-9
4. Chicago 5-11

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons
Thought: They don’t strike me as getting better or worse. Just existing. That is never a good thing.
Vital Player: Michael Turner. He needs a bounce-back year in 2010 more than any other player and his team needs it just as much. Matt Ryan did not show many flashes of brilliance last year. He doesn’t seem to be the type of QB to carry a team. He needs Turner if the Falcons are going to be successful.
Best-Case: This team is the bizarro Detroit Lions. I have no idea what to expect from the Falcons. Last year they were in my predicted NFC title game. The best I see for Atlanta this year is a division title and a first round playoff loss. 10-6.
Worst-Case: Nothing goes right for Atlanta. Matt Ryan shows no progression. Michael Turner 2010 resembles Turner 2009 rather than 2008. And the defense is just so-so. Like last year. And the year before that. 6-10. Mike Smith’s job becomes someone else’s.

Carolina Panthers
Thought: Call me crazy, but I think they’re not so bad.
Vital Player: Matt Moore. I wanted to take someone from the defensive side of the ball, but there are so many people who need to be good over there, that I kept coming back to Moore. I like Moore. I don’t love him. He put up good numbers at the end of 2009. Unlike a few of the NFL’s less famous QBs, Moore has a running game to rely on with Jon Stewart (not that one) and DeAngelo Williams. At the receiver spot, they need something from Dwyane Jarrett or rookie Brandon LaFell. If Moore gets some help, he can be a top 12 NFL QB. And that would do a world of good in Charlotte.
Best-Case: The offense is consistent and balanced and the defense (a veritable “who is that guy” crew) bands together in Julius Pepper’s absence and plays well. They finish 10-6 and compete for a division title.
Worst-Case: Matt Moore isn’t quite the answer and Jimmy Clausen has to play a year or two too early. The defense produces as you would expect them to when looking at their names. John Fox’s last season is 2010. The Panthers finish 5-11.

New Orleans Saints
Thought: If I have to hear the phrase “Who Dat?” one more time, I’m going to scream.
Vital Player: Drew Brees. You know, not that I don’t like Chase Daniel and all.
Best-Case: They stop celebrating their Super Bowl title at exactly 7:59:59 on Thursday, pummel the Vikings and coast to an easy division title and another Super Bowl championship. 14-2.
Worst-Case: Have you ever seen a team celebrate their championship as much as this team has? I’m a little put-off by it. I was very happy for New Orleans and the Saints. But I’m preconditioned to the New England Patriots method of celebration, whereby you celebrate by trying to win another one and leaving the parades and talk shows and Jon Gruden “hamming-it-up for the camera Sportscenter specials” to the Ochocincos of our football culture. Instead, everywhere I look I see Drew Brees and I keep hearing people say he’s the best QB in the NFL and I just don’t get it. And if you’re reading this thinking that this is a pretty “worst-case scenario,” I would remind you that I haven’t even talked about the actual 2010 season. 8-8 and a world full of disappointment in New Orleans and the sports-writer narrative world.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Thought: I’m about to either look stupid or like a genius.
Vital Player: Carnell Williams. We didn’t get a chance to see much good from QB Josh Freeman last year. He played in 10 games, threw 10 TDs and 18 INT. His QB rating was under 60.0. In the preseason, Freeman was throwing the ball really well before a thumb injury slowed him down. Tampa has cleaned house a bit this offseason. Freeman has some young guys to get familiar with on the outside. What he needs more than anything though, is a healthy Carnell Williams. A healthy Williams gives Freeman a much easier job as he transitions to full-time starter. And it could do a world of good in Tampa.
Best-Case: On the heels of a somewhat easy starting schedule (Browns, Panthers, and Roethlisberger-less Steelers), the Bucs start 2010 with a 3-0 record. They ride that momentum out of an early bye and become the darlings of the Sunday pregame show talk. The Bucs finish 2010 with a winning record (9-7) and fall just short of a shocking playoff berth.
Worst-Case: The Bucs are wholly inexperienced and I’m some sort of slack-jawed yokel who doesn’t deserve a blog that is read by 3 people (one of whom is me). They finish 3-13 because they have a really young defense that was awful against the run last season and is no better this year.

Actual Predicted Results
1. New Orleans 10-6
2. Carolina 9-7
3. Tampa Bay 8-8
4. Atlanta 6-10

NFC West
Arizona Cardinals
Thought: What a difference a QB makes.
Vital Player: Derek Anderson. When Derek Anderson is your vital player, you know that either you’re pretty good everywhere else. Or you’re just awful and I’m trying to end this as quickly as possible. The Cardinals are the former. However, bad QB play is so contagious, it sometimes affects your defense. Like, almost always. If Anderson struggles, look out for the free-fall. And may I add that they’re real excited in Arizona about Max Hall as their QB of the future. That’s not even a joke. Trust me, as someone who watches more college football than you do, Max Hall never looked like an elite college QB, nevermind an NFL QB.
Best-Case: Remember that year that Derek Anderson was real good and made it to a Pro Bowl? Maybe he can do that again and the Cardinals finish 11-5 and win the West and get eliminated in their first playoff game?
Worst-Case: An NFL team enters an NFL season with Derek Anderson as their best option at Quarterback. That team, a two-time defending division champion, doesn’t do a great job of defending their division title. 5-11.

San Francisco 49ers
Thought: The division title is yours, Niners.
Vital Player: Alex Smith. With a defense this good, it’s all about the offense and that starts with Smith. There is no safety net on this roster. No Shaun Hill. There is David Carr and Troy Smith. If Alex Smith fails, so too will the 49ers. He has the elite running back (Frank Gore), very good tight end (Vernon Davis), and a couple of quality receivers (Michael Crabtree, and Josh Morgan). The offensive line is improving with rookies Mike Iupati and Anthony Davis. It’s all up to Smith. He’s had the time to develop. Now he needs to perform.
Best-Case: Alex Smith gets it and everyone else does like they should. The 49ers win the West by 4 games, sailing to an easy 12-4 season and a run at the NFC championship game.
Worst-Case: Alex Smith is not very good and Frank Gore is forced to carry the load. He gets hurt and they’re left with Anthony “2.9 YPC” Dixon running the ball. The defense manages to keep them in every game and they finish 9-7, fighting for that last playoff spot.

Seattle Seahawks
Thought: Mike Williams is the number 1 receiver for an NFL team.
Vital Player: Mike Williams. I don’t buy it. Just don’t. Name me the last epic first round bust who turned into a team leader. Good luck with that. Is Mike Williams a precedent setter? We’re about to find out.
Best-Case: I can’t bring myself to be rosy. This is a bad football team. If they prove me wrong, I’ll eat my crow. But this team has 4-12 written all over it. A joke. They’re good at absolutely zero positions. They have a couple players. That doesn’t win you football games.
Worst-Case:They’re even worse than above. 1-15. An abject disaster. I don’t know who Pete Carroll thinks he is, but a football team constructionist he is not.

Saint Louis Rams
Thought: Well, at least they’re building a team the right way. For the opposite, see above.
Vital Player: They’re not going anywhere this year. Let’s just hope that Sam Bradford stays healthy.
Best-Case: Sam Bradford starts all 16 games, struggles a little bit, but stays healthy. They finish 5-11 and continue building for the future.
Worst-Case: A young and inexperienced offensive line gets their young and inexperienced QB seriously hurt. A young and inexperienced defense is not very good. 1-15. An abject disaster, but one that you can at least feel bad for.

Actual Predicted Results
1. San Francisco 11-5
2. Arizona 6-10
3. St. Louis 3-13
4. Seattle 2-14

NFC Playoffs
Wild Card Round: Minnesota (6) over New York Giants (3), Dallas (5) over New Orleans (4)
Divisional Round: Green Bay (1) over Minnesota (6), Dallas (5) over San Francisco (2)
NFC Championship: Green Bay (1) over Dallas (5)

Green Bay is the better version of the Baltimore Ravens from the AFC. The Packers are quite balanced. Ryan Grant may not be an elite RB, but he will do enough to take some of the weight off of Aaron Rodgers’ shoulders. Not that Rodgers can’t handle it. The Packers have a solid young defense that I think will respond well to the whoppin’ that the Cardinals put on them in the wild card game last season. No one in the NFC is as solidly dynamic as the Packers, not even the defending champs.

Super Bowl XLV: Green Bay over Baltimore (31-14). Two years in a row with the Packers for me. Last year, I was going out on a limb. This year, they’re for real.

AWARDS
NFL MVP: Aaron Rodgers
NFL Rookie of the Year: Ryan Mathews
NFL Coach of the Year: Mike Singletary

NFL’s Worst Team: Seattle Seahawks
Best Subplot: Aaron Rodgers and the Packers ending Brett Favre’s career.
Most Overrated Team: New Orleans Saints
Most Underrated Team: Cleveland Browns

The Best Regular Season Games (in my opinion):
Week 1: Baltimore at New York Jets (Minnesota at New Orleans not bad)
Week 2: New Orleans at San Francisco (New York Giants at Indy and New England at New York Jets, also good)
Week 3: Dallas at Houston
Week 4: Washington at Philadelphia (McNabb’s return)
Week 5: Minnesota at New York Jets
Week 6: Baltimore at New England
Week 7: Minnesota at Green Bay
Week 8: Green Bay at New York Jets
Week 9: Dallas at Green Bay
Week 10: Dallas at New York Giants
Week 11: Indianapolis at New England
Week 12: New Orleans at Dallas
Week 13: San Francisco at Green Bay
Week 14: New York Giants at Minnesota
Week 15: Green Bay at New England
Week 16: New York Giants at Green Bay
Week 17: Cincinnati at Baltimore

And finally, Tim Tebow’s final line after this season: 3 of 8 passing, 45 Yards, 0 TD, 1 INT 30 Carries, 70 Yards, 3 TD

Enjoy the season!

In the early part of the past decade, there was this idea of parody in the NFL. This started with the St. Louis Rams, who went from a 4-12 season in 1998, to a 13-3 season in 1999 and a Super Bowl championship. In 1999, the Baltimore Ravens finished a mediocre 8-8. The next season, in 2000, they finished 12-4 and captured themselves a Super Bowl title. In that same year, the New England Patriots were a dreadful 5-11 team. In 2001? You guessed it. 11-5 and Super Bowl Champions. As recently as two years ago, the Miami Dolphins won the AFC East a year after finishing 1-15. Pardoy. Everyone has a chance.

What’s my point with all of this? I have none. I just wanted to begin my 2010 NFL Preview with some overdone, tired narrative that you could hear from any highly-paid NFL expert. Let’s have some fun with this, shall we? Mini-previews for all 32 teams over the next few days. One thought on each team, important players, best case scenarios and worst case scenarios:

AFC East

Buffalo Bills
One Thought: What’s the opposite of the cream of the crop?
Vital Player: CJ Spiller. It would be completely foolish of me to expect Trent Edwards to be anything more than what he is (a mediocre quarterback who projects as a higher-end career backup). Spiller, a rookie, will need to carry this offense if they’re going to be successful.
Best-Case: Lee Evans steps up and plays like a #1 receiver, while the offensive line opens holes for the backfield and protects Trent Edwards just enough to give the Bills solid D some rest. The Bills win 7 games.
Worst-Case: The defense has to spend 40 minutes a game on the field because of the ineptitude of the offense. The Bills finish the season 1-15 and draft Ryan Mallet first overall in the 2011 draft

Miami Dolphins
One Thought: I’m sorry, is Chad Henne really as good as people think?
Vital Player: Ronnie Brown. If Brown can stay healthy, it will take a world of pressure off of Henne, of whom people are expecting more than he’s capable of.
Best-Case: Henne puts up Matt Schaub numbers, thanks in large part to the arrival of a content Brandon Marshall and the presence of a solid running game. The defense plays as well as they should, thanks to the rapid progression of young corners Vonte Davis and Sean Smith. The Dolphins win the division with a 12-4 record.
Worst-Case: Ronnie Brown tears his ACL, Brandon Marshall acts like Brandon Marshall, and Chad Pennington is their starting QB by Week 8. They finish just better than the Bills at 5-11.

New England Patriots
One Thought: Young defense. Very young defense.
Vital Player: Jerod Mayo. This could have been Ron Brace or Devin McCourty, but I’m going with Mayo because he’s the defensive QB and needs to play more consistently than last year and truly needs to take the leadership reigns now.
Best-Case: The defense gels. The offense shines. 13-3 and a Super Bowl title.
Worst-Case: Randy Moss throws a hissy fit, Wes Welker isn’t fully recovered, and the defense resembles a colander. They finish 7-9 and need to implode the whole thing in the offseason.

New York Jets
One Thought: Remember the 2009 Atlanta Falcons?
Vital Player: Mark Sanchez. The aforementioned Falcons played above their heads with a rookie QB, came into his sophomore year with high expectations, and missed the playoffs. Except the Jets won last year in spite of Sanchez, not because him. He needs to show some real improvement with all of these expectations or New York will turn on him and his pretty face.
Best-Case: Darrelle Revis shows up ready on day 1, Sanchez has an All-Pro alternate type season (think 3400 YDS, 21 TD, 10 INT..you know, David Garrard stuff), Shonn Greene performs like a true #1 back, and there’s a parade on Broadway in February.
Worst-Case: Rex Ryan, in a fit of unquenchable hunger, eats Mark Sanchez during a practice, leaving Kellen Clemens as the Jets starter. They finish 7-9 and New York Jets fans try to eat Rex Ryan.

Actual Predicted Results
New England Patriots 11-5
New York Jets 11-5
Miami Dolphins 7-9
Buffalo Bills 2-14

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens
One Thought: This is almost an exceptional football team.
Vital Player: Fabian Washington. You’re probably saying, “Who?” Washington, because of injury, is the Ravens #1 corner and by far the most important person on this team. If he cannot (finally) put together a solid season, after being a first round pick in 2005 (by the Raiders) the Ravens will not be as good as they should be.
Best-Case: The offense resembles the 1999 Rams and the defensive secondary holds together well enough to lead this team to a 13-3 season and their second Super Bowl title.
Worst-Case: Joe Flacco is not as good as I expect him to be and the secondary is even worse. They get lit up by the Jets in Week 1 and never put it together after that. 7-9.

Cincinnati Bengals
One Thought: Has anyone written about how they have two Wide Receivers who are known to be divas?
Vital Player: Cedric Benson. Last year’s numbers were good, but he’ll need to up that TD total for this to be a legitimate offense. Because Carson Palmer just doesn’t have it anymore.
Best Case: TO and Ochocinco make minimal noise, Benson rushes for 12 TDs and 1400 yards, C. Palmer stays upright (preventing J. Palmer from having to take an NFL snap), and the defense comes as advertised. That would be “very good.” Second straight division title. 12-4 season, Super Bowl loss.
Worst Case: Someone realizes that they have Terrell Owens, Cedric Benson, Chad Ochocinco, Frostee Rucker, Carlos Dunlap, Andre Smith, Roy Williams, and Pac Man Jones on their roster. After a Week 3 loss to Carolina brings them to 0-3, the phrase “locker room dissent” sprouts up. No one is happy. Everyone quits. They finish 5-11.

Cleveland Browns
One Thought: I kind of like this football team. No, really.
Vital Player: Jake Delhomme. Quarterback stability is very underrated when you’ve lacked it since Bernie Kosar left. Delhomme is a winner in need of a career revival.
Best-Case: They take advantage of toxic atmospheres in Cincy and Pittsburgh and band together forcing people to realize that maybe they aren’t as bad as people had thought. They finish 9-7.
Worst-Case: They’re just as bad as most people thought. Colt McCoy is a starting NFL QB by Week 9. That is not a good thing. 3-13.

Pittsburgh Steelers
One Thought: No, really, Dennis Dixon is a starting NFL QB.
Vital Player: Ben Roethlisberger. Dixon is the easy choice here, but he’ll only be playing 4 weeks. What kind of shape will Roethlisberger be in? Will we see a Tiger Woods like return where he just “doesn’t have it?” (Sidebar: Why are people comparing these two stories? Tiger was cheating on his wife with cocktail waitresses, porn stars, and club promoters. Roethlisberger has been accused of rape twice. One is much worse than the other.) Or will he come back like a man possessed?
Best-Case: Dixon holds it together nicely. Roethlisberger returns to a 3-1 team, and plays like a leader. The defense is in its vintage 2008 form. 12-4, division title, and a third Super Bowl somehow help repair “Big Ben’s” image because that’s how the sports media world reacts. See: Bryant, Kobe.
Worst-Case: Roethlisberger gets accused of sexually assaulting another female while on suspension, leading to his release and the keys being handed to a spread option QB who isn’t ready to be a pro-style QB. The defense is as lazy as I think they are. 5-11. Cleveland beats them twice for good measure.

Actual Predicted Results
1. Baltimore 12-4
2. Cincinnati 9-7
3. Cleveland 7-9
4. Pittsburgh 7-9

AFC South

Houston Texans
One Thought: For a passing team, they sure do have a lack of WR depth.
Vital Player: Arian Foster. Are we really expecting a mediocre college back and a guy with very little NFL experience to step up and be a 1200 yard back?
Best-Case: Foster has a big year, Steve Slaton is healthy enough to spot him on 3rd down and passing situations, Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson hook up for 17 TDs, the defense continues its improvement. Indy gets supplanted. 11-5 and a playoff berth.
Worst-Case: They remain just as mediocre as they’ve ever been. 7-9.

Indianapolis Colts
One Thought: This does not look like a Super Bowl contender.
Vital Player: Peyton Manning. I mean it. If he gets hurt, this is a 1-15 football team. He makes everyone (Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Mormon Do-Rag Guy) better. Curtis Painter does not.
Best-Case: They hold it together for one more year and win Peyton his second Super Bowl before finally having to rebuild.
Worst-Case: One year too late. They’re lack of size defensively, combined with shoddy coaching kills them in the middle (consecutive games against Philadelphia, Cincinnati, New England, San Diego, and Dallas). For good measure, Peyton gets hurt in the New England game. They miss the playoffs for the first time since….when was that? (2001…I was 17 years old)

Jacksonville Jaguars
One Thought: Boring mediocrity.
Vital Player: Whoever is quarterbacking them. Garrard or Luke McCown. It should be Garrard.
Best-Case: Every team they play is looking towards their next game, Jacksonville fights hard to grind out a 9-7 season. They sneak into the playoffs and get blown out in the Wild Card Round.
Worst-Case: Everyone takes them seriously, they play the games on paper and the Jaguars finish 5-11. Jarrett Dillard can tell his kids that he actually played in the NFL despite having attended Rice University.

Tennessee Titans
One Thought: See Jaguars, Jacksonville.
Vital Player: Vince Young? I guess.
Best-Case: The mantra, “Vince Young just wins football games” holds true and they surprise everyone, finishing 10-6 and fighting for the division crown.
Worst-Case: Kerry Collins has to play the quarterback position at any point during the regular season. 4-12.

Actual Predicted Results
1. Indianapolis 10-6
2. Houston 8-8
3. Jacksonville 5-11
4. Tennessee 5-11

AFC West

Denver Broncos
One Thought: Oh they’re the team that drafted that University of Florida QB?
Vital Player: Kyle Orton. Remember that thing about QB stability? It would do a world of good for such an underwhelming team to get a “better than expected” performance from Orton. He put up very solid numbers last year (It’s okay. No one noticed). He’ll need to put up, um, solider numbers this year to make them relevant.
Best-Case: Knowshon Moreno or Correll Buckhalter or Andre Brown or….someone steps up and has a solid (900 yards, 6 TD), healthy season at running back. Jabar Gafney, Eric Decker, Demaryius Thomas, Eddie Royal, Brandon Lloyd or….someone steps up and has a very good (80 Rec. 1100 Yards 8 TD) receiving season. The secondary plays consistently enough to keep them in games. 10-6 and competing for a Division title.
Worst-Case: None of the above happens. No one takes the reigns at the RB or WR spots. Orton struggles, leading to Tim Tebow getting the starting job 3/4 of the way through the season, whereby he struggles mightily before ultimately being injured severely trying to turn a 4 yard run into a 6 yard run, while losing by 21 to the Chiefs. 4-12 season.

Kansas City Chiefs
Thought: I keep saying that this is their year. Maybe this is their year.
Vital Player: Glenn Dorsey. No, I’m not joking. Their defensive line is, in a word, horrible. There is no depth there. Dorsey, who was the #3 pick in the 2008 Draft, has been nothing short of an abject failure in the NFL. A step-it-up year from him and I promise you the Chiefs will shock you. Because the rest of that defense is pretty good.
Best-Case: 8-8 season thanks to an improved defense and Matt Cassel having some time to throw the football.
Worst-Case: More of the same. 4-12.

Oakland Raiders
Thought: Call me crazy, but I think this is a playoff team.
Vital Player: Jason Campbell. I’m tempted to go with Darrius Heyward-Bey, except that I know he’s never going to amount to anything. Campbell has the rare opportunity to start fresh with limited expectations. He was treated very unfairly in Washington by people like myself. He, much like Kyle Orton, puts up solid numbers only to get highly criticized no matter what. This could be his true coming out party. And the Raiders need it to be.
Best-Case: Everyone looks at the schedule and says, “Phfawww…Oakland…hahahaha” only to realize that this defense is darn good and the offense is balanced and the offensive line can protect the quarterback. The Raiders shock a lot of people and win the division, going 11-5.
Worst-Case: Same old Raiders. Campbell is inconsistent, Darren McFadden can’t quite get it done, no one steps up at WR, the O-Line resembles swiss cheese with bullet holes in it, and the defense gets let down by the offense, eventually giving up by Week 5. They finish 4-12 and get to draft another future bust.

San Diego Chargers
Thought: I wonder who they’ll lose to in their first playoff game this season….
Vital Player: Malcom Floyd. He didn’t ask for Vincent Jackson, but he’ll have to fill his shoes. Just without the obnoxious petulance and grandstanding. Kidding aside, Floyd is the guy everyone will look to to replicate Jackson’s production. If he doesn’t, they’re not left with a lot of options, other than Antonio Gates being forced to break the single-season reception record.
Best-Case: Everyone says, “Vincent Jackson, who?” as the Chargers average 35 points a game, never missing a beat behind Rookie of the Year, 1400 yard back Ryan Mathews and new big-game receiver Malcom Floyd. Meanwhile the defense stays just cohesive enough so as to not allow 36 points a game. 12-4 and another playoff letdown.
Worst-Case: They’re awful defense gets exposed for what it is, while the offense is forced to try to score 45 points a game. They do it sometimes, but not enough. Norv Turner is fired and the Chargers are rebuilt on both sides of the ball. Ryan Mathews is still the Rookie of the Year.

Actual Predicted Results
1. San Diego 10-6
2. Oakland 9-7
3. Kansas City 6-10
4. Denver 4-12

AFC Playoffs
Wild Card Round: Indianapolis (4) over San Diego (5), New York Jets (3) over Oakland (6)
Divisional Round: Baltimore (1) over Indianapolis (4), New England (2) over New York (3)
AFC Championship: Baltimore (1) over New England (2)

Baltimore has it all, to me. Good, young, dynamic coach in John Harbaugh. Very good young QB who is ready to step his game forward. Elite running back (Ray Rice). Solid #1 WR (Anquan Boldin). #2 receiver looking for redemption (TJ Houshmanzadeh). Solid #3 receiver (Derrick Mason). Injured wide-out who is a dynamic late-season option (Donte’ Stallworth). Very good offensive line. Great defensive line. And great linebackers, led by a future Hall of Famer looking for one more title. The biggest question marks: Kicker and Cornerback. Tell me, who was New Orleans starting kicker on Opening Day last season? And who were their corners? Every aspect of the Ravens is good enough defensively to make up for two weaker corners. The injury to Dominique Foxworth was big. And being without Ed Reed for the first six weeks won’t be easy, but this is a team that will be led by their offense in my opinion. And that offense will be led by a potential MVP candidate in Joe Flacco. I love the Ravens in 2010.

Tomorrow (or whenever) the NFC and some postseason awards. And my Super Bowl prediction. SPOILER ALERT: The Ravens are going to be playing in my Super Bowl.

I pride myself on the concept of perspective in times of turmoil. Nothing is the worst thing that has ever happened until it actually is. And when it comes to sports, it’s never the worst. There’s always a tomorrow. This story is no different.

Last Saturday, the Nationals were en route to beating the 2-time reigning NL champion Phillies on a Saturday evening, when Stephen Strasburg threw a pitch, grimaced, and shook his arm. At that very moment, I turned to Amanda and said “Tommy John Surgery.” She assured me that I was overreacting. It was probably nothing. The Nationals would go on to blow out the Phillies 8-1. No one noticed.

A few days later, Rob Dibble, the Nationals’ television color commentator, went on his radio program and proclaimed:
I’m not a doctor, and I haven’t read the MRI yet, but I’m pretty sure he’s gonna come back fine. … You can’t constantly be complaining over every little thing. So for me, a little bit has to be put back on Strasburg here. Ok, you throw a pitch, it bothers your arm, and you immediately call out the manager and the trainer? Suck it up, kid. This is your profession. You chose to be a baseball player. You can’t have the cavalry come in and save your butt every time you feel a little stiff shoulder, sore elbow.

Dibble would continue in this vein, remarking about the fragility of the modern pitcher, much as pitchers from the 1980s do these days. He even went so far as to question his (Strasburg’s) loyalty to the team:
“I mean, excuse me. There’s guys I played with that had screws holding their elbows together. Chris Sabo played two weeks on a broken ankle. I put a steel plate in my wrist so I could be back in five weeks instead of three months. So, this is your choice. You can either suck it up and be a man at 22 making $2 million a year [with] a $15 million contract, or every time you get an ache and pain you can go out of the game and say I’m gonna let down the other 24 guys right here and possibly end up forfeiting the game.”

As much as I would like to break my PG-rated social media rules for Rob Dibble, I won’t. What I will say is that there is not an ounce of credibility in either of his statements you see above. Strasburg did not turn to the dugout and ask for assistance. What happened is that the prized possession in the city of Washington as far as sports is concerned, threw a pitch, grimaced in pain, and shook out his arm. I’ve watched a lot of baseball in my life. A lot. When pitchers do that, they’re hurt. Very hurt in fact. If a pitcher throws 90 pitches per start and has 30 starts in a season, he will throw 2700 pitches. If after any one of those 2700 pitches, he grimaces in pain and shakes his arm, that number always (not sometimes. ALWAYS) decreases drastically. Oftentimes, it just stops where it was. That, as it turns out, was the case for Strasburg.

What Rob Dibble said was a “little thing” was actually a very big thing. Friday, after a second MRI on his pitching arm, the Nationals announced that Stephen Strasburg has a major tear in his UCL joint and will require Tommy John Surgery. The typical recovery time for a Tommy John patient is 12-18 months, though lately it seems like pitchers are recovering at a faster rate than the 18 month period.

It is unlikely that this injury will put an end to Stephen Strasburg’s career. In recent days, I’ve heard lots of people say, “Oh, he’ll come back fine. Some pitchers come back even better.” i.e. This is no big thing. The problem is, of course, that this is a huge thing when it comes to baseball in Washington. I wrote about Strasburg’s debut back on June 8th before. It remains the greatest sporting event I have ever attended and is probably the greatest sports moment of my life. To this day, 2 1/2 months later, I feel like I was a part of something really special that Tuesday night. Strasburg’s injury is devastating to the Nationals. He was the main attraction in this 2010 season. Every game that Strasburg pitched here (save for his final start of the season at home, against the Diamondbacks, which I also saw in person) was a social event in a city that loves social events. Baseball is like that in Boston and Philadelphia, but it’s not like that here. There’s more going on here than just baseball. But on the days that he pitched, that wasn’t the case. And that was nice for a change.

Now, we’re left with not very much. Look, Ryan Zimmerman is one of the best third basemen in baseball. Jordan Zimmermann is a good young pitcher (also coming off of Tommy John surgery). Roger Bernadina has shown some signs that he could be an actual piece going forward. Ian Desmond has grown exponentially at the plate this season. There’s a few things to watch. But I get the feeling that I can just watch from home. With Strasburg, you had to be there. And this will affect the Nationals organization too. Believe it or not, it’s good to have people come into your baseball stadium to watch a game because then you get taken seriously. (Note to Tampa Bay Rays “fans.”) With empty blue seats around Nationals Park in the coming weeks and most of next season, the Nationals will have a hard time remaining relevant.

Help is on the way of course. The Nationals just had their second productive draft, signing nearly every player they selected in the first 25 rounds, including first overall pick Bryce Harper, second round pick Sammy Solis (of whom I expect very little, but hey), and third round Rick Hague (who is really hitting the ball down in Lo-A Hagerstown). And there’s some youth in the pipeline already (Derek Norris, Ross Detwiler, Chris Marrero) who are at or on their way to the big leagues. But no one, not even Harper, can fill the hole left vacant by Strasburg’s absence.

I remember walking away from Strasburg’s last start in AA thinking, “He’s going to need Tommy John Surgery at some point.” His delivery, the violent arm action, lent itself to a torn something. I just didn’t think that he’d need it so soon. And right when the Nationals and Washington needed him most.

It’s rare that I find myself more excited for an NFL season than a college season, but I think that’s where I’m at heading into the fall. I don’t have it in me, necessarily to break down each conference extensively. Some conferences (Big XII, ACC, Big East, Big 10…oh wait, that’s almost all of them right?) don’t deserve a full breakdown. And so with that, here are my conference title contenders heading into the 2010 season. Apologies to Indiana, Washington State, South Florida, and Kansas.

ACC
(Coastal Division)
1. Virginia Tech- The Hokies are here every year because no one in this conference can recruit, rebuild, and win quite like Frank Beamer. If Frank could just win some bowl games (sub .500 all-time) he could truly start to build a legacy. VTech comes into 2010 with their best offense since the start of this century, with stability at QB (Tyrod Taylor) and two of the nation’s best running backs (Ryan Williams and Darren Evans). The questions for Virginia Tech are on the defensive side of the ball. Thankfully for them, they play in the ACC and not the Pac-10. Unfortunately for them, they play in the “A” division of the ACC and have two competitors for the crown.

2. Miami- The first competitor is the resurgent Miami Hurricanes. Miami’s early season schedule is brutal with games at Ohio State, at Pittsburgh, at Clemson, and finally home to Florida State. And they close out with back-to-back games against Georgia Tech (in Atlanta) and Virginia Tech. There is no more difficult schedule in the nation. So why Miami ahead of Georgia Tech and trendy North Carolina? Because I love Jacory Harris. I love their offensive line. I love their defensive swagger. And because of that, I think they get through that schedule with just a few blemishes.

3. Georgia Tech- The second competitor for this division crown would be the 2010 conference champion. The Yellow Jackets return starting quarterback Josh Nesbitt, who I’ve seen in some publications as a Heisman sleeper. I can’t think of a good enough joke here, beyond the notion of Josh Nesbitt being a Heisman sleeper. Defensively, the Jackets are stout, but I don’t have faith in their offense, especially with the loss of Jonathan Dwyer at running back. Linebackers will key in on Nesbitt and force him to throw the ball, which is exactly what Tech coach Paul Johnson doesn’t want. The Techs (Virginia and Georgia) will fight it out in Blacksburg, VA on Thursday November 4. Don’t expect the picture to be clear until after Miami plays Virginia Tech on November 20th in South Florida.

(Atlantic Division..or “Do I have to pick someone?)
1. Florida State- I don’t have a lot of faith in Christian Ponder and the Seminoles, nor do I have much faith in Clemson, Boston College, North Carolina State, Maryland, or Wake Forest.

Conference Championship: Virginia Tech over Florida State
Player With The Most to Prove: Jacory Harris. Needs to prove that last year wasn’t a fluke. He needs to cut down on the INTs certainly. If he can, it might be Miami in the ACC Title game beating Florida State. And it might even be Miami playing for the national championship. It all falls on Jacory’s shoulders. He succeeds and I can truly see Miami playing in Glendale in January. If he throws 17 INTs again, I can see Miami playing in the Champs Sports Bowl.

Big (L)East
1. Pittsburgh- Dion Lewis might rush for 2000 yards this season. I expect Pitt to run the table in the Big East. There is no one, not even the UNH Wildcats, who can stop Dion Lewis. I’m not concerned about their quarterback issues. Lewis is going to run over, around, and through the entire Big East. And Pitt’s very good defense (19th in the nation last year) will be just as stout. Their biggest conference challenge will be not taking their inferior opponents lightly. If Pitt does slip up, I’ll take Rutgers as the beneficiary. But it won’t happen.

Player With The Most to Prove: Noel Devine (RB/WVU). Dion Lewis has nothing to prove as far as I’m concerned (can you tell I like him?). Devine needs to be a workhorse to give West Virginia any shot at respectability and Bill Stewart any shot at retaining his job. I don’t see it from Devine. Without a passing game (apologies to Geno Smith), West Virginia will struggle to put points on the board. I see a 6-6 or 7-5 season for a team that should finish no worse than 9-3 with their schedule.

Big Ten
1. Ohio State- I have a truly difficult time jumping to the conclusion that because he played one good “big game” (the Rose Bowl) last year, Terrelle Pryor is ready to become a leader. Part of the issue with Ohio State is Jim Tressel’s unwillingness to let Pryor be an athlete. Tressel is a great football coach, but perhaps a little to clingy to the notions of football past. Terrelle Pryor should be running the ball twenty times a game. He is not a good enough passer to stand under center and take 5 step drops. A bit of the pressure on Pryor will be alleviated this year by the presence of a good run game, led by Brandon Saine, Boom Herron, and sophomore Jordan Hall, who quietly averaged over 5 yards a carry last season (and is Pryor’s old high school teammate). And Ohio State returns DeVeir Posey at Wideout, who caught 60 balls last year, 8 for TDs. The Buckeyes are, as always, loaded with 5 star recruits past and present on both sides of the ball. There’s no reason to think that they won’t win another Big 10 title.

2. Iowa- The gap between 1 and 2 here is much bigger than the gap between 2 and 3. Ohio State is a step way ahead of both Iowa and Wisconsin athletically. I put Iowa here at 2 ahead of the Badgers, because they return an experienced quarterback (Ricky Stanzi) and have an easier path to an undefeated Big 10 season. Iowa plays zero tough road games in conference (Michigan, Indiana, Northwestern, and Minnesota). That means Penn State (who will not be good this year), Ohio State, and Wisconsin all come to Iowa City. Big advantage for the Hawkeyes.

3. Wisconsin- See Iowa. Wisconsin has murderer’s row in October with back to back games against the Buckeyes and Hawkeyes, followed by a trip to Purdue. And I just don’t think there’s enough offense in Madison to compete with Ohio State.

Player With The Most to Prove: Terrelle Pryor. Isn’t it always? When you come in with the self-created hype that Pryor did as a freshman and fail to make good on that hype in two years, you will always have the biggest microscope placed over you. I’m very torn on Pryor. I want him to succeed at the same time that I want him to fail. He has all the tools to be Vince Young Version 2.0. But to this point, he’s been nothing close to that. Part of me wants to make him a Heisman contender. But really, I’ll just wait until it happens and give him his credit then. He deserves no more.

Big XII
South
1. Oklahoma- Landry Jones. That mustache. Kidding aside, the race for Big XII supremacy comes down to which quarterback can do the most to help his team and I think that’s Landry Jones. He has weapons to work with. Ryan Broyles and Brandon Caleb on the outside and DeMarco Murray in the backfield. As it always does with these teams, it’ll come down to the first Saturday in October at high noon in Dallas, TX. I like Oklahoma to win that game and the Big XII South

2. Texas- Garrett Gilbert. Perhaps he needs to grow a mustache? Gilbert was awful in the first half against Alabama last year, but started to get his bearings about him in the second half and performed fairly well against Alabama’s elite defense. However, Landry Jones comes in with more experience. Gilbert’s run game is better than Jones’ but this is the Big XII folks, where passing is key. I see Gilbert making a mistake or two too many in his first year as a full-time starter. Down the road, he has all the tools to be just as good as Colt McCoy was, just not yet. That said, Texas will still finish the regular season no worse than 10-2.

3. Texas A&M- They’re not winning this thing, but I wanted to give mention to a team that is certainly on the rise, led by quarterback Jerrod Johnson. A&M will play Texas and Oklahoma tightly. And if you like fun, be sure to tune in to their game against Arkansas on October 9th. First one to 50 wins. A&M finishes the season 9-3.

North
1. Nebraska- There is no one else who can compete with the Huskers in the dreadful North. Nebraska will finish the regular season as the cheapest 10-2 football team ever because they play a cupcake schedule. Their defense is elite, led by senior (and future NFL star) Prince Amukamara at Corner. Their offense, however, will take a step back in the absence of Sam Keller and that’s truly saying more about replacement starter Zac Lee than anything about Keller. Don’t expect much from the team that finished 77th in the nation in scoring offense and 101st in passing last year. Side note: Maybe I can see Missouri sneaking up on them, but the Tigers have no defense to speak of. If Missouri and Nebraska joined forces, they’d win the Big XII. Until then, they’ll lose to the Big XII South winner.

Conference Championship: Oklahoma over Nebraska
Player With The Most to Prove: Garrett Gilbert. The spotlight will be bright on Gilbert, as he follows in the footsteps of Vince Young and Colt McCoy. He has an easy early schedule to work with before the Oklahoma game. If he plays well during Texas’ first four games, we could see a whole different quarterback in Dallas from the one who played in Pasadena last year.

Pac-10 (also known as the most wide open conference in all of football, in recent memory)
With the Pac-10, I’m going to just list my predicted order of finish and then break it all down because almost anyone can win this conference.

1. Stanford
2. Oregon
3. Washington
4. Oregon State
5. Arizona
6. USC
7. UCLA
8. California
9. Arizona State
10. Washington State

The line of demarcation according to who can win this conference lies above USC (who is postseason ineligible in 2010). I may end up getting this whole thing completely wrong and Arizona might win the Pac-10. But for my money, I love Stanford in 2010. The schedule is challenging (at Oregon, in what will be an epic night game on October 2 and at Washington). But they have the nation’s best pure quarterback in sophomore Andrew Luck (Ryan Mallet is not a pure quarterback). Stanford struggled mightily on defense last year, so I’m resting a lot on the idea that a year of experience will help out. And they lost Heisman Trophy runner up RB Toby Gerhart. So call it a hunch or call it me betting on a team with the odds stacked against them, but I have faith that Jim Harbaugh has built something great in Palo Alto.

Oregon is the trendier pick because they return a star running back and a semi-experienced quarterback, but I sense a hangover in Eugene this year. I have a feeling that the Jeremiah Masoli controversy and the LeGarrette Blount situation are a dark cloud hanging over the Ducks. Certainly not dark enough to keep them from being a 9-3 football team, but dark enough to keep them from being the 11-1 or even 12-0 team that they likely could be.

Player With The Most to Prove: Matt Barkley (QB/USC). In a meaningless year, with a new coach, I’m very interested to see what this highly touted quarterback can really do. USC will be a very interesting team to watch, even if they technically don’t exist in 2010.

SEC
East
1. Florida- Even with Tim Tebow gone, Florida will not take a significant step back in a very weak division. John Brantley is a seemingly capable signal caller and he is surrounded by athletes at every skill position. He will not be asked to carry the load on his own. As for the rest of this division, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and Tennessee will all be very bad this year (sub-.500 at least). That leaves Florida with games against South Carolina and Georgia. Georgia starts a redshirt freshman in Aaron Murray and South Carolina is the same team they’ve been in the past two years, i.e. not very good. Florida should run the table in their division and coast to the SEC title game in Atlanta. Oh, and if there weren’t enough big games on Saturday October 2nd, Florida has a little tilt in Tuscaloosa with the Alabama Crimson Tide.

West
1. Alabama- I’ve heard the talk about the 13 defensive players gone. And do you know what it is? All talk. Talk to try to fill up months of down time and spring games and workouts. Nick Saban is, if nothing else, the best defensive minded coach in college football. He’s got a cupboard that is stocked with elite prospects and he’ll find a way to get the most out of raw talent. On offense, find me a tandem better than Trent Richardson and Mark Ingram. You’ll be looking for quite a while. And on the outside, Julio Jones is still there. And Greg McElroy is still under center. And say what you want about him, but he wins football games.

2. LSU- I’ve been waiting for Jordan Jefferson to have his breakout season for quite some time and I think this is finally going to be it. Les Miles’ job may be on the line at LSU. And if I’ve learned anything in life, it’s to never count out a crazy person when their back is against the wall.

3. Arkansas- Arkansas will score close to 40 points per game and hope that their atrocious defense can hold teams to under 40 points. That won’t happen a lot, but enough to get them 3rd place in the wide-open West.

4. Auburn- A trendy pick (Kirk Herbstreit has them winning the SEC West). I remind you that they finished 3-5 in the SEC last year and are starting Cam Newton at QB, a former highly touted Florida recruit (Tim Tebow’s heir apparent) who has never taken a substantial snap in his college career. I look at Auburn as the slightly poorer man’s version of Arkansas. The defense at Auburn is better, but the offense is certainly not, unless Newton can improve on what has been an up-and-down spring and summer campaign.

5. Mississippi- The wild card. If Jeremiah Masoli has his head on straight and the Right Reverend lets him loose , they could be dangerous. They won’t be, however.

6. Mississippi State- They’re getting there. They’re not there yet.

SEC Championship: Florida over Alabama
Player With The Most to Prove: Mark Ingram. Has a returning Heisman Trophy winner ever had this much to prove? Everyone is talking about his teammate Trent Richardson and no one is talking about Ingram. We’ll see what kind of football player he is this year. If he comes out with a fire under his behind, we’ll know he’s got heart. Frankly, he should come out ready to prove everyone wrong. I’m sure Nick Saban would appreciate that.

The Others

In previous years, you could just end a thing like this because no one from a Big 6 is going to make the national championship, right? Well, this year, that might not be the case. For what it’s worth, I think Boise State loses to Virginia Tech on Labor Day night, thus ending their shot at a title. I haven’t forgotten about what happened the last time Boise went on the road and began the year against an elite team. If you have forgotten, they went Between the Hedges back in 2005 and got beat down by Georgia. Embarrassed. 35 point blowout. In a lot of ways, that game has slowed the National Championship prospects for not only Boise, but Utah, and TCU. Boise looked overmatched against DJ Shockley and the Dawgs. Even against Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl, Boise had to pull out the statues of liberties and the hook and ladders to beat the Sooners in a game that meant nothing to Oklahoma. A lot has changed since then. Boise has an elite quarterback in Kellen Moore and perhaps the best Wide Receiver tandem in the country (Titus Young and Austin Pettis). But Boise’s defense is not elite and Virginia Tech can run the football and they will run the football. Right at Boise’s overmatched linebackers. I’ll be rooting hard for the Broncos, but I don’t think it’ll be fruitful rooting.

TCU, on the other hand, I think will run the table to a 12-0 regular season. The only potential hiccups on their schedule are games against Oregon State (at Cowboys Stadium) on opening day and in Salt Lake City against Utah at the end of November. TCU has the defense that Boise does not (6th in the nation last year). And their offense if much better than people give them credit for (5th in the nation last year).

The only other team that I can see going undefeated from a non-Automatic Qualifying conference is Navy, but even if the Naval Academy does go 12-0 (I think 11-1 is more likely with games against Notre Dame and at East Carolina, but an undefeated season is not outside of the realm of sensible thinking if you look at their schedule) I cannot see them cracking the top 2. But a 12-0 Navy team does make for an interesting BCS conversation doesn’t it?

Sorting This Mess Out

The October 2nd Florida/Alabama game is very important here. Everything starts with that game. I think the home advantage is important for the Tide and they win the early October game, but I see that as Florida’s only blemish heading in to the SEC title game with an undefeated Alabama team. I think Florida wins a close SEC Championship game, setting up the very difficult scenario where you have 1-loss Florida, Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, Boise State, Ohio State, Pittsburgh and Alabama teams, along with an undefeated TCU team. I really think that this is the year where all hell breaks loose in the BCS. For real. If you think you’ve seen all hell break loose with the BCS before this season, you’re wrong. (And can you imagine if Navy really does run the table?)

So how in the worst do we sort this all out? Well, let’s start with the basics. The six automatic qualifiers:

ACC: Virginia Tech (12-1)
Big East: Pittsburgh (11-1)
Big XII: Oklahoma (12-1)
Big Ten: Ohio State (11-1)
Pac-10: Stanford (10-2)
SEC: Florida (12-1)

Alabama (12-1) and TCU (12-0) are easy at-large choices which leaves us with teams like Boise State (1 loss), Texas (10-2), Miami (10-2), Nebraska (10-2), and Iowa (10-2) to fill out the remaining two spots. Boise’s early season loss to Virginia Tech helps them here because they shouldn’t fall too hard with that loss. I count Boise State and Texas in. So that gives us these 4 at-large teams:

Alabama (12-1)
TCU (12-0)
Boise State (11-1)
Texas (10-2)

Now we have to determine the national title game contenders. I think that includes Florida, Oklahoma, Alabama, and Ohio State. Florida is a shoe-in because of their early season loss and recent victory over Alabama. So who do I think ends up with Florida? I think it’s Alabama, actually. The BCS has gotten it wrong so often, why not assume that they’ll get this one right and give us the rubber match between two heavyweights? So here’s how I have the BCS games shaking out:

Rose Bowl: Ohio State over Stanford
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma over Boise State (retribution?)
Sugar Bowl: Texas over Pittsburgh
Orange Bowl: TCU over Virginia Tech
BCS National Championship: Florida vs. Alabama (I’m not deciding. Just crossing my fingers that this all comes true.)

Top 5 Heisman Trophy Hopefuls
Dion Lewis (RB/Pittsburgh)
Trent Richardson (RB/Alabama)
Andrew Luck (QB/Stanford)
Tyrod Taylor (QB/Virginia Tech)
Andy Dalton (QB/TCU)

Finally, make a point to clear your schedules for Saturday October 2. Spend the morning with a loved one and then ditch them by 10 in time for ESPN’s College GameDay. At 1 Eastern, Texas and Oklahoma battle in the Red River Rivalry. At a TBD time (probably 4 p.m.) Florida plays at Alabama. And if you haven’t had enough, Stanford travels to Eugene to play Oregon at 11:15 eastern that night.

You know what? I’m excited for college football now.

If I told you that I have nothing to live for, I’d probably be a tad overdramatic (just a tad though). When I heard the news last night (that was confirmed this morning) that Nationals LF Josh Willingham would be sitting out the remainder of the season due to knee surgery, the baseball portion of me felt a little empty. Josh Willingham is by no means an elite offensive player. He is not particularly “toolsy.” He’s a patient hitter, with a little bit of pop in his bat, and average defensive numbers. He is beyond all else, wildly consistent. Take a look at his basic career statistics (in seasons with 400+ PA):

2006-.277/.356/.496, 26 HR, 74 RBI
2007-.265/.364/.463, 21 HR, 89 RBI
2008-.254/.364/.470, 15 HR, 51 RBI
2009-.260/.367/.496, 24 HR, 61 RBI
2010-.268/.389/.459, 16 HR, 56 RBI

Willingham, if he could stay fully healthy, could easily be a .270/.390/.500 hitter with 30 HR and 90 RBI. And that’s not bad. At all. In fact, it’s quite good. Willingham has been a vital cog in the Nats wheel this year. His season ends with a VORP of 27.3, a very respectable number from your third best hitter, which is what Willingham is. But he’s more than that. He’s a stable bat. He doesn’t strike out a ton. He walks as often as anyone in the National League (currently 3rd). He gets on base. And he doesn’t take away a ton defensively. AND, he only makes $4.5 million per year. In short, he’s the kind of baseball player that every team needs. He knows his role and succeeds.

Without Willingham, the offense takes a big hit. Now Adam Dunn goes from having protection behind him to having Michael Morse behind him. That’s a big difference. Now, Willie Harris (a VORP of -8.4 and VORPs aside, one of the most useless players in baseball) becomes an everyday player until Nyjer Morgan (-0.5 VORP) returns from injury. The injury to Willingham makes it that much harder to stick around and watch the Nats struggle against the Braves, Phillies, and Cardinals. As recently as three weeks ago, the Nationals were 11.5 games out of first and I was trying to convince myself that they were still a playoff contender. I’ve woken up now. It’s become a season of silver linings.

And with that, I’m challenging myself to come up with 5 reasons to stick with the Nationals this year, in no particular order:

1.) Jordan Zimmermann- JZimm is the only pitcher I’m really excited about seeing as we go forward. I really believe that the Nationals would be wise to shelf Stephen Strasburg for the remainder of the season. Nothing to gain by having him continue to pitch and expose himself further to both injuries and advanced scouting. I’ve seen Strasburg pitch enough that I feel like I know how to beat him. For the Nationals, with defeat comes success next June. If this season ended today, Washington would have the 8th pick in next June’s draft. Realistically, they could “improve” that number (through losing) to a top-4 pick. Ultimately, that doesn’t necessarily make a whole world of a difference, except that it does keep fewer teams in play for the player(s) you want.

As for Zimmermann, he’s coming back from Tommy John surgery after a very good rookie season ended with an elbow injury last year. Zimmermann has thrown 34.2 innings in the minors this year, with a 1.82 ERA, 5.20 K/BB ratio, 6.00+SO/9, and a 6.8 H/9 average. In half of his starts last year, he pitched 6+ innings. His ERA was close to 5, but in his final 8 starts of his shortened 2009 season, he allowed 3+ earned runs only twice (3 and 4). His K/BB ratio of 3.00 in his final 8 games was also impressive. And he’s only 24. I’m excited to see JZimm get some major league reps (well ahead of schedule) because next season, he’s the Nats number two starter. And part of a formative 1-2 with Stephen Strasburg.

2.) Wilson Ramos- Ramos was acquired (nay, stolen) in the Matt Capps trade with the Minnesota Twins. Ramos is regarded, by most, as a top 5 catching prospect in the game. The Nationals two current catchers (Ivan Rodriguez and Wil Nieves) have been dreadfully inept for most of the season. They’ve hit a combined 4 HR and 47 RBI. Both are getting on-base at a clip below 30% of the time. They have been abject failures. For all of the talk around here about how great Pudge has been, I’m not sure anyone actually knows how to look at numbers. He has not been good here. He’s currently blocking the Wilson Ramos from playing every day. You have nothing to lose by calling Ramos up full-time. He was brought up today while Wil Nieves is on leave (pregnant wife). Perhaps the Nats should ask Nieves to stay at home and move Pudge to the backup role that he so clearly deserves.

3.) Jim Riggleman- If Jim Riggleman continues to not succeed, shouldn’t he be fired? I remind you that Bobby Valentine is still available. And I continue to remind you. It’ll be interesting to watch Riggleman manage the rest of this season because I truly think if Mike Rizzo and Stan Kasten know what they’re doing, they’ll consider replacing him heading in to what could be a promising 2011 campaign.

4.) Rob Dibble- The man proves a little more every game that he knows nothing about baseball. Just because you were a relief pitcher in the late 80’s and early 90’s does not mean that you’re going to be 1.) Intelligent, 2.) Well-spoken, or 3.) Good. Rob Dibble proves that. So he find himself on this list for sheer entertainment purposes. If you find getting angry and yelling at your picture box entertaining. Which I thankfully do.

5.) Ian Desmond- He’s hitting the ball very well over the last month, which is a great sign. His defense and throwing still leave a lot to be desired but he’s becoming a more dependable hitter. One of the few things that this organization has done well this year is sticking with Ian. They’ve let him fail (and fail miserably as he did during June and July) and they’ve watched him right the ship. He’s not necessarily playing for a position next year, but he’s not a sure thing. Ending the year on a solid note could do a lot for both his future and the future of this club.

At Sunday’s game, Amanda asked me who I would have playing everyday on this club from here on out. I’ve given it some thought and here’s what I’ve got for a lineup (this is for when Nyjer Morgan returns at the end of this week):

SS Ian Desmond
LF Roger Bernadina
3B Ryan Zimmerman
1B Adam Dunn
RF Michael Morse
C Wilson Ramos
CF Nyjer Morgan
2B Danny Espinosa
Pitcher

Pitching Rotation

Livan Hernandez
Jordan Zimermann
Scott Olsen
Yunesky Maya (who I have zero expectations for, but I mean, why not, right?)
John Lannan

Tell me that rotation won’t strike the fear of God in the hearts of NL East lineups. Actually, please don’t tell me that.

Michael never acted like this. Michael never referred to himself as “Michael.” Michael never had a half hour special where he ripped hearts from chests, while shilling in front of children in Greenwich, Connecticut. Michael also won championships. A lot of them.

I was young when Michael was in his prime. And actually, I didn’t root for Michael because I was a Celtics fan and because I rooted for underdogs as a child even more than I do now. Michael was not an underdog. He was the true alpha dog. I feel like I missed out on a good deal by not being old enough to appreciate Michael in his prime. But I know that he is the best professional athlete of the last 30 years.

However, he existed in an age before the dreadful TMZs and Deadspins of the world. And before anyone and everyone could feel important by publishing their opinions on the World Wide Web. Michael was an avid, epic gambler. If he was still playing basketball on a high level today, he would not be nearly as revered as he was. The microscope has become a telescope. It sees everything. It hears every misspeak. It chews people up and spits them out, only to become funny pop culture references 5 years later for people like myself and Dave Machado.

Perhaps if LeBron James existed twenty years ago, things would have been different this summer. He assuredly would not have had an hour long television program given to him to announce where he would play basketball. Perhaps we wouldn’t have heard all of the self-aggrandizing nonsense he’s spewed. Perhaps he would not have ruined his reputation. Not tarnished. Not damaged. Ruined. That’s how I feel about LeBron James.

As recently as three months ago, I loved LeBron James. I was offended when people compared Kobe Bryant to LeBron James. LeBron James’ skill set is far beyond where Kobe’s was at 25. Heck, it’s past Kobe’s now. Kobe can’t pass like LeBron James, can’t rebound like LeBron James, can’t run the floor like him, can’t block shots like him, can’t muscle up like him. Kobe can score. And defend a little bit. But that’s it, really. And Kobe Bryant is an alleged rapist. I’ll never be able to look past the summer of 2003. Just as I had started to root for Kobe, Eagle Co. Colorado happened. And that was it.

LeBron James had his Eagle Co. moment this summer, albeit not to the extent that Kobe did. There is something about overt narcissism that I find undesirable. Confidence and cockiness are all fine. LeBron James has every right to be cocky. Michael was cocky. Kobe is cocky. But Kobe never had an hour long show dedicated to him. And Kobe has never turned his back on LA. And Kobe has never built something just to let it crumble. And Kobe has always wanted to be the alpha dog. Kobe always wants the ball late. Kobe wants to be Michael. LeBron James does not. LeBron James wants to be LeBron.

In the September issue of Gentleman’s Quarterly, there is an extensive interview with James. Here are a few samples of who LeBron James is:

– (on Akron, Ohio) “It’s not far, but it is far. And Clevelanders, because they were the bigger-city kids when we were growing up, looked down on us. … So we didn’t actually like Cleveland. We hated Cleveland growing up. There’s a lot of people in Cleveland we still hate to this day.”

-(on Cavs owner Dan Gilbert) “I don’t think he ever cared about LeBron. My mother always told me: ‘You will see the light of people when they hit adversity. You’ll get a good sense of their character.’ Me and my family have seen the character of that man.”

-(on himself) “I love our fans. Cleveland fans are awesome. But I mean, even my family gets spoiled at times watching me doing things that I do, on and off the court.”

Do you know who doesn’t refer to himself in the third person? Who doesn’t talk about how spoiled his family is to be able to know him? Who doesn’t bad-mouth the city that hung an enormous billboard with his likeness and called him “King?” That would be Kobe Bryant. Kobe might yell at teammates, preen like a peacock, and have a disdain for assists, but Kobe Bryant is driven by one thing: Being the best basketball player ever. I thought LeBron James was the same way before this summer. I was duped. LeBron James cares about marketing himself. LeBron James looks at heavy hands (in having lots of rings) as a means to market himself further. Kobe looks at it as necessary to being regarded as the best basketball player ever. Neither is terribly noble, but you don’t play professional basketball because you want to build schools in Namibia. You play it to win titles and if you have the skill-set, to be the best ever at it. Kobe has the right frame of mind. LeBron James is just busy trying to frame his next photo-op.